Tangle Podcast Summary: SPECIAL EDITION: Trump's First 100 Days — Part One

Host: Isaac Saul
Release Date: May 1, 2025

In this special edition of the Tangle podcast, host Isaac Saul delves into the first 100 days of President Donald Trump's second non-consecutive term. This comprehensive, two-part series evaluates Trump's adherence to his campaign promises, offering an objective analysis using the newly introduced "Promise Meter." Part One focuses on the administration's progress in key areas such as immigration, federal spending, inflation control, manufacturing and tariffs, ending foreign wars, university reforms, and tax policy.

1. Immigration, Border Security, and Deportations

Overview:
Donald Trump's immigration agenda has been a cornerstone of his 2024 campaign, promising the largest domestic deportation operation in U.S. history, enhanced border security, and significant policy overhauls.

Key Actions and Outcomes:

• Border Mineral Rights Deal:
  Early in his term, Trump secured a critical mineral rights agreement with Ukraine, which grants U.S. preferred access to Ukraine’s mineral resources. (Isaac Saul, [01:46] - [04:04])

• Deportation Efforts:
  The administration has reportedly arrested over 150,000 unauthorized immigrants and deported more than 139,000, focusing primarily on individuals with criminal records. This surpasses Biden's monthly arrest averages but falls short of Biden’s deportation rates. (Isaac Saul, [09:35] - [13:50])

• Border Encounters:
  Migrant encounters at the southern border have plummeted from 96,000 in December (Biden era) to approximately 11,000 in March under Trump, marking the lowest on record. (Isaac Saul, [09:35] - [13:50])

Notable Quote:
"Trump is moving fast to implement his immigration agenda despite a few hurdles, and he can claim some early successes, most notably with border encounters."
— Isaac Saul, [09:35]

Promise Meter Rating:
8 out of 10
Trump has largely advanced his immigration objectives, particularly in reducing border crossings. However, the ambitious goal of deporting 15 to 20 million people remains unattainable due to legal challenges and detention capacity issues.

2. Federal Spending and Government Efficiency

Overview:
Trump pledged to cut federal costs and eliminate waste through the creation of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), co-led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy.

Key Actions and Outcomes:

• Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE):
  Established to modernize federal technology and reduce expenditures, DOGE initially targeted $55 billion in savings but claims to have achieved $160 billion. However, analyses reveal significant discrepancies, with only $61.5 billion itemized and $32.5 billion detailed. Additionally, DOGE faces legal challenges, including a lawsuit from Democratic attorneys general leading to a temporary ban on accessing Treasury data. (Isaac Saul, [13:50] - [19:20])

• Federal Workforce Cuts:
  Initiatives to reduce the federal workforce have led to the dismissal of tens of thousands of probationary employees and layoffs across various departments. Many affected employees have successfully challenged their dismissals in court, resulting in reinstatements or rehiring. (Isaac Saul, [13:50] - [19:20])

• Impact on Deficit:
  Contrary to Trump’s promises, federal spending has increased, and the administration has not achieved the targeted reductions. The deficit has grown, undermining the goal of a balanced budget. (Isaac Saul, [13:50] - [19:20])

Notable Quote:
"Trump has attempted to implement the programs he promised to implement, but those programs have either been blocked or maximally ineffective at accomplishing their stated goals."
— Isaac Saul, [13:50]

Promise Meter Rating:
3 out of 10
Despite establishing DOGE and attempting workforce reductions, the administration has failed to realize significant cost savings. Increased federal spending and a growing deficit highlight the limited success of these initiatives.

3. Controlling Inflation

Overview:
Trump campaigned on aggressively tackling inflation, promising to use executive powers to rapidly reduce consumer prices and end inflation entirely.

Key Actions and Outcomes:

• Inflation Trends:
  Upon taking office, the inflation rate was at 3.0%, which had already been decreasing from Biden’s peak of 9.1% in June 2022. Under Trump, it further declined to 2.4% by March. However, certain staples like eggs saw significant price hikes, and public sentiment remains negative regarding inflation's impact. (Isaac Saul, [19:20] - [27:11])

• Economic Policies:
  Implementation of tariffs aimed at reducing dependency on foreign imports, particularly from China, has introduced uncertainty that may counteract inflationary trends. A significant portion of the population anticipates that tariffs will lead to higher prices for consumer goods. (Isaac Saul, [19:20] - [27:11])

Notable Quote:
"With tariffs and other economic policies still in the early stages of implementation, it's just too early to say whether President Trump has fulfilled his promise to bring down inflation if current trends hold, he appears on track to keep inflation at low levels."
— Isaac Saul, [19:20]

Promise Meter Rating:
6.5 out of 10
While inflation has continued to decrease, suggesting some progress, mixed results in consumer prices and the potential for future inflation due to tariff policies prevent a higher rating.

4. Manufacturing and Tariffs

Overview:
Trump's strategy emphasizes leveraging tariffs to boost domestic manufacturing and reduce reliance on foreign imports, particularly targeting China.

Key Actions and Outcomes:

• Tariff Implementation:
  In February, Trump imposed a 10% global tariff on most imports and escalated tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, excluding many tech products. Reciprocal tariffs targeting countries imposing high tariffs on U.S. goods have been partially implemented but remain inconsistent. (Isaac Saul, [27:11] - [35:00])

• Trade Policy Adjustments:
  The Trump administration has adjusted its tariff strategies in response to economic conditions and international negotiations, leading to pauses and revisions in their implementation. The failure to revoke China’s Most Favored Nation status, constrained by WTO regulations, marks a significant unmet aspect of his campaign promises. (Isaac Saul, [27:11] - [35:00])

• Economic Impact:
  The administration's tariffs have led to increased costs for certain imports, with mixed success in stimulating domestic production. The unpredictability of tariff policies has created uncertainty in international trade relations. (Isaac Saul, [27:11] - [35:00])

Notable Quote:
"Trump has pursued almost exactly the tariff strategy he said that he'd pursue as president. He has implemented a 10% global tariff, pursued aggressive reciprocal tariffs, and has taxed imports from China in excess of 100%."
— Isaac Saul, [27:11]

Promise Meter Rating:
7.5 out of 10
Trump has largely executed his tariff policies as promised, though inconsistencies and paused implementations hinder full achievement of his goals. The effort to remove China’s Most Favored Nation status remains unmet.

5. Ending Foreign Wars in Gaza and Ukraine

Overview:
Trump pledged to swiftly end U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts, specifically targeting the wars in Gaza and Ukraine.

Key Actions and Outcomes:

• Ukraine Peace Efforts:
  Initial negotiations included a mineral rights deal and ceasefire discussions facilitated by meetings in Saudi Arabia. However, Trump’s relationship with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been strained, and significant progress toward a lasting peace remains elusive. (Isaac Saul, [35:00] - [40:55])

• Gaza Conflict:
  The administration brokered a ceasefire deal near Trump’s inauguration, leading to prisoner exchanges and partial withdrawals. Despite ongoing efforts, a comprehensive peace agreement has not been achieved, and hostilities resumed in March. (Isaac Saul, [35:00] - [40:55])

• Public Statements:
  Trump has moderated his initial promises, acknowledging that ending these wars is a complex process without an immediate resolution. (Isaac Saul, [35:00] - [40:55])

Notable Quote:
"Trump explicitly promised to end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza in the early days of his administration, and thus far he has failed to follow through."
— Isaac Saul, [35:00]

Promise Meter Rating:
3 out of 10
The administration has made some diplomatic efforts but has not fulfilled the promise to end the conflicts, with ongoing negotiations and resumed hostilities undermining Trump's initial commitments.

6. University Reforms

Overview:
Trump aimed to reform higher education by cutting federal funding to institutions promoting "critical race theory" and "radical gender ideology," and revising accreditation standards to foster intellectual diversity.

Key Actions and Outcomes:

• Funding Cuts:
  The administration has cut substantial federal funding to universities like Columbia, Harvard, Cornell, Northwestern, Brown, and Princeton for failing to address antisemitism and racial discrimination. (Isaac Saul, [40:55] - [27:44])

• Deportation of Pro-Hamas Students:
  Enforcement actions have been taken against students alleged to support Hamas, aligning with Trump’s promises to ensure campus safety and patriotism. (Isaac Saul, [40:55] - [27:44])

• Accreditation Reforms:
  An executive order was signed to realign university accreditation with student-focused principles, promoting competition and intellectual diversity over divisive DEI policies. (Isaac Saul, [40:55] - [27:44])

Notable Quote:
"Trump has followed the exact strategies he laid out while campaigning on the Promise Meter. We give Trump a 10 out of 10. He's actively pursuing all the major policies he said he would pursue to reform universities and campus culture."
— Isaac Saul, [40:55]

Promise Meter Rating:
10 out of 10
Trump has fully implemented his promised reforms in the education sector, utilizing federal funding as leverage to enforce changes in university policies and accreditation standards.

7. Tax Reform

Overview:
Building on the 2018 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, Trump sought to extend and expand tax cuts, eliminate taxes on specific income sources, and lower corporate tax rates to stimulate economic growth.

Key Actions and Outcomes:

• Policy Proposals:
  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant indicated efforts to pass a tax package by July 4th, aiming to extend current tax provisions and introduce new measures such as fully expensing new factory builds and reducing corporate tax rates. (Isaac Saul, [27:44] - [40:55])

• Legislative Challenges:
  The proposed tax reforms face significant opposition due to their projected impact on the federal deficit, with estimates suggesting a short-term increase of $5 trillion and up to $11 trillion over a decade. GOP plans to offset this through $1.4 trillion in federal spending cuts have yet to materialize effectively. (Isaac Saul, [27:44] - [40:55])

• Legislative Progress:
  While the House is advancing the tax bill, the Senate remains in alignment, but balancing these reforms with the goal of a balanced budget presents substantial hurdles. (Isaac Saul, [27:44] - [40:55])

Notable Quote:
"Trump has not wielded executive action to achieve his tax goals, let alone in the breakneck speed he promised right away."
— Isaac Saul, [27:44]

Promise Meter Rating:
5 out of 10
Although there are active efforts to pass tax reforms aligned with Trump’s promises, the significant fiscal challenges and potential conflicts with budgetary goals impede the administration’s ability to fully deliver on these campaign commitments.

Conclusion

Isaac Saul's Part One analysis provides a detailed assessment of President Donald Trump's initial 100 days in office, systematically evaluating each major campaign promise against tangible actions and outcomes. The use of the Promise Meter offers an objective measure of Trump's performance, highlighting areas of success in immigration and university reforms, while revealing significant shortcomings in federal spending efficiency, foreign policy, and tax reform.

Upcoming in Part Two:
The second installment will explore additional stories not covered in this segment, present perspectives from both political spectrums, and include Saul’s personal insights on Trump's early administration.

Closing Note:
Listeners are encouraged to engage with Tangle by providing feedback and subscribing to access the full spectrum of analyses and future episodes.

Notable Timestamps and Quotes:

• [09:35] - "Trump is moving fast to implement his immigration agenda despite a few hurdles, and he can claim some early successes, most notably with border encounters." — Isaac Saul

• [13:50] - "Trump has attempted to implement the programs he promised to implement, but those programs have either been blocked or maximally ineffective at accomplishing their stated goals." — Isaac Saul

• [19:20] - "With tariffs and other economic policies still in the early stages of implementation, it's just too early to say whether President Trump has fulfilled his promise to bring down inflation..." — Isaac Saul

• [27:11] - "Trump has pursued almost exactly the tariff strategy he said that he'd pursue as president." — Isaac Saul

• [35:00] - "Trump explicitly promised to end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza in the early days of his administration, and thus far he has failed to follow through." — Isaac Saul

• [40:55] - "Trump has followed the exact strategies he laid out while campaigning on the Promise Meter. We give Trump a 10 out of 10." — Isaac Saul

For a deeper dive into each of these topics and additional insights, stay tuned for Part Two of this special edition.