John (3:00)

Thanks Isaac and welcome everybody. Here are your quick hits for today. First up, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Dis Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, citing a difference in opinion over the country's strategy in the war in Gaza. The announcement prompted protests across Israel. Number two, the Federal Bureau of Investigation said bomb threats targeting polling places in battleground states appeared to originate from Russian email domains. All of the threats were determined to be non credible. Separately, U.S. capitol Police arrested a man carrying a torch and a flare gun at the US Capitol who smelled like fuel on Tuesday afternoon. Number three, Senior Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian troops have engaged with North Korean forces for the first time. Number four, U.S. stocks hit all time highs and the dollar rose at its highest rate since March 2020 on Wednesday morning. And number five, Ohioans rejected a ballot measure that would have established a citizen commission to draw congressional and state legislative maps. A ballot measure in Florida that would have legalized recreational cannabis fell short of the 60% threshold needed to pass. And Californians passed a ballot measure strengthening criminal penalties for certain theft and drug related offenses.

Donald Trump (4:18)

I want to thank the American people for the extraordinary honor of being elected your 47th president and your 45th president and every citizen. I will fight for you, for your family and your future. Every single day I will be fighting for you and with every breath in my body I will not rest until we have delivered the strong, safe and prosperous America that our children deserve and that you deserve. This will truly be the Golden Age of America. That's what we have to have.

Isaac Saul (5:00)

All right, that is it for today's quick hits, which brings us to today's main topic. The 2024 election result. Former President Donald Trump will become the 47th president of the United States, with all major news outlets calling the race in his favor. As of Wednesday morning, Trump is poised for a sweep of all seven swing states, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and holds a 51% to 47.5% lead in the popular vote, with a large percentage of the vote in the west coast states still to be reported. Trump appears likely to surpass his performance in the 2016 election, when he won 306 electoral college votes but lost the popular vote by roughly 2%. He is also on track to flip every swing state President Joe Biden won in 2020. In a victory speech at around 2:30am Eastern Time on Wednesday morning, Trump declared that his return to the White House will usher in a golden age America. Vice President Kamala Harris was set to address her supporters late Tuesday night from Howard University, her alma mater, but postponed her speech in the wake of mounting results as the night progressed, Harris will reportedly deliver a concession speech at 6pm Eastern tonight. Republicans also flipped the Senate, picking up three seats held by Democrats to clinch a majority of at least 52 seats. Tim Sheehy, the Republican, defeated three term Senator John Tester, the Democrat in Montana, while Bernie Moreno, the Republican, defeated three term Senator Sherrod Brown, the the Democrat in Ohio and Jim justice, the Republican, defeated Glenn Elliot to win retiring Democratic Senator Joe Manchin seat in West Virginia. Republicans also successfully defended all their incumbencies, including decisive victories in what were expected to be competitive races in Nebraska and Texas. However, five close races have yet to be called. Republicans lead over incumbent Democrats in Pennsylvania where Dave McCormick could unseat Bob Casey, and in Nevada where Sam Brown is running ahead of Jackie Rosen. Democrats maintain razor thin margins in Michigan and Wisconsin while Ruben Gallego, the Democrat, has a moderate lead over Kerry Lake, the Republican in Arizona. If the current uncalled Senate races do not change from the current results, Republicans will end up with 54 Senate seats. Meanwhile, the race for control of the House of Representatives will be incredibly close, with Decision Desk HQ giving Republicans a 78.9% chance of winning the chamber with a 220 to 215 majority. Late Tuesday night, Democrats looked poised to flip control of the House. But Republicans have rallied, especially in Pennsylvania, where Republican challengers are projected to flip three districts in the state while Democrats will not flip any. The balance in the House could end up being decided by California's 47th district, where Scott Ball, the Republican, leads David Minn 50.6% to 49.4% for the seat held by Representative Katie Porter. Porter left the seat to run for the Senate. Elsewhere, ballot measures to create a state constitutional amendment protecting the right to abortion passed in Arizona, Colorado, Maryland and Montana, while voters repealed a ban in Missouri and protected abortion access in Nevada and New York. Efforts to repeal bans in Florida, Nebraska and South Dakota failed. In today's edition, we're going to look at what the left and the right are saying about the election results and then I'll share my take. We'll be right back after this quick break.

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John (10:08)

Alright, first up, let's start with what the left is saying. The left is dejected by the result, with many saying the country faces a hazardous path ahead. Some worry about how Trump's foreign policy will impact American allies. Others frame the result as a sound rejection of the Biden administration. The New York Times editorial board said America makes a perilous choice. The founders of this country recognized the possibility that voters might someday elect an authoritarian leader and wrote safeguards into the Constitution, including powers granted to two other branches of government designed to be a check on a president who would bend and break laws to serve his own ends. And they enacted a set of rights, most crucially the First Amendment, for citizens to assemble, speak and protest against the words and actions of their leader, the board wrote. Over the next four years, Americans must be clear eyed about the threat to the nation and its laws that will come from its 47th president and be prepared to exercise their rights in defense of the country and the people, laws, institutions and values that have kept it strong. Whatever drove this decision among these voters, however, all Americans should now be wary of an incoming Trump administration that is likely to put a top priority on amassing unchecked power and punishing its perceived enemies, both of which Mr. Trump has repeatedly vowed to do, the board said. Those who supported Mr. Trump in this election should closely observe his conduct in office to see if it matches their hopes and expectations, and if it does not, they should make their disappointment known and cast votes in the 2026 midterms and the 2028 election to put the country back on course. Those who opposed him should not hesitate to raise arms when he abuses his power. And if he attempts to use government power to retaliate against critics, the world will be watching. In Bloomberg, Andreas Kluth wrote, america deserves Donald Trump. The world does not. Come January, we'll find out if Trump's fellow strongmen ask permission from his White House as they make their moves. In geopolitics, Russia's Vladimir Putin, with his KGB trained mind, has always known how to flatter and manipulate Trump, and that's what worries Ukraine. China's Xi Jinping has taken note of Trump's inconsistent statements about Taiwan and is ready to wage the trade war that Trump promises to launch, Cluth said. America's allies, meanwhile, have no idea what's coming but fear the worst. Trump has, after all, threatened to pull out of NATO and abandon partners if they don't buy enough chips or cars or steel from the US the optimistic spin on Trump's approach is that it's a new and amped version of the madman theory that was once attributed to Richard Nixon, although Machiavelli long ago suggested that it can indeed be a wise thing to stimulate madness. By that logic, America's foes and friends alike will be docile out of sheer fear. What might this man do with or without a nuclear button? Cluth wrote. But the Batman theory never properly elaborated or tested, and feigns occasional derangement. Tactically to navigate his strategic destination, Trump has neither compass nor map. In New York magazine, Jonathan Chait argued, it's not that people love Trump. Democrats simply failed. Because Trump is so abnormal, so grotesquely narcissistic and cruel, his success seems to upend conventional political assumptions and render his triumph into a kind of black magic. Reality is a little more banal. The American public has not embraced Trump. The decisive bloc of voters always evinced deep misgivings about Trump's character and rhetoric. Even if they didn't fully recall all his crimes and offenses, who could? Trump didn't win by making people love or even accept him. He won because the electorate rejected the Biden Harris administration, chait said. Harris surged ahead of Biden's morbid position, but her momentum stalled. She could never quite overcome the toxicity of her old positions or the administration in which she served. Her only chance to win, given the baggage she inherited, required her to run a perfect campaign, and she did not. The Democrats only chance of winning, in retrospect, was to pick a nominee who could credibly run as a complete outsider untainted by either the 2020 primary leftathon or the Biden administration's record on inflation and immigration, che wrote. Why is it important to understand all this? Because their defeat is fundamentally rooted in concrete events and decisions, many of which lay in their control. There is no mystical bond between the public and Trump they cannot sever. The Democrats allowed themselves to be prodded and sometimes bullied into either fooling themselves about the true nature of public opinion or fooling themselves into thinking public opinion didn't matter. All right, that is it for what the left is saying. Which brings us to what the right is saying. The right believes Trump's win is a vindication of his movement and a repudiation of the left. Some say the anti Trump media is an even bigger loser than Harris. Others say Harris ran a disastrous campaign. The Wall Street Journal editorial board said Trump wins the election and a second chance to say the former president has been a portrait in resilience is the political understatement of the 21st century. He was all but written off as a future candidate after the capitol riot on January 6, 2021, including by us. But Democrats helped to revive him and their one sided January 6th investigation and their partisan use of lawfare. The Bragg indictment in New York on the Jerry rigged charges may have sealed Trump's path to the nomination. The courage he showed after the first assassination attempt was also a defining campaign moment, the board wrote. His victory on Tuesday, in the end wasn't as close as the poll suggested. He won back states he lost in 2020, and he did so with a coalition that included more young voters and more black and Hispanic men. Yet Mr. Trump's comeback wouldn't have been possible without the policy failures of the Biden administration and congressional Democrats. He won again because President Biden failed to deliver the unity and prosperity he promised and because over four years voters have soured on the results of his progressive policies. The board said Democrats tried a late course correction by pushing Mr. Biden out of the race when it became clear he would lose. And it almost worked. Kamala Harris tried to pitch herself as a new way forward, but she couldn't escape her four year association with Mr. Biden. In the end, she also failed to persuade enough people she was up to the job as president. In a world of growing geopolitical danger in the Federalist, Al Purnell called the Corporate media Industrial Complex 2024's Biggest Loser. The Corporate Media Industrial Complex has spent Donald Trump's entire political career trying to destroy him. Hand in hand with their triple letter government agencies and Democrats, they ran a hoax painting Trump as a Russian stooge based on ridiculous rumors commissioned by his opponents to campaign in 2016, they continued to spread the lie for the duration of his presidency, awarding each other Pulitzers for it, Purnell wrote. The problem they're reckoning with tonight is this. Those efforts didn't work. They're no longer able to control Americans by controlling their information intake. Americans saw the Russia collusion hoax fall apart. They saw Trump govern for four years and peacefully transfer power to Joe Biden without fulfilling the authoritarian predictions. When Covid mania broke out in 2020, they saw the media and their big tech allies religiously shut down true information and spread lies about the virus's origins. Democratic lockdowns mask mandates and forced vaccines, Purnell said. The less Americans bought their lies, the more the media piled on the rhetoric. But that isn't working anymore. Instead, the more maniacally the media amped up their attacks, the less they appeared to be sticking in reason. Robby Sove argued Donald Trump won because Kamala Harris is Joe Biden. But worse, pundits trying to understand how Trump could have possibly achieved this unthinkable comeback will focus on his message, his issues, and his campaign strategies. They will investigate the aspects of Trump that make him so appealing to throngs of Americans. But they might overlook the single most important contributing factor in Trump's victory. Not an affirmative vote for the candidate, but rather a negative endorsement of his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris. So wrote. Simply put, Harris was a disastrous candidate. Admittedly, she had a tough job. But the fundamental mistake of the Harris campaign, the one that ensured Trump's reelection, no matter how improbable it seemed to elite tastemakers, was assuming that a simple candidate swap would be sufficient. Biden was not merely unpopular because he was too old to serve as president. He was unpopular because the American voters dislike his policies on the issues that mattered most to voters the economy, inflation, immigration. Majorities of voters solidly preferred Trump over Biden. So have said Harris never ran from Biden's record or pretended that she represented some actual sea change in policy. Her pitch was Biden's second term, but overseen by a younger, more capable person. This pitch did not merely come up short. It vastly underperformed expectations. That's because voters wanted to part ways with both Biden and his inflationary policies. All right, let's head over to Isaac for his take.

Isaac Saul (19:13)

All right, that is it. For what the Left and the right are saying. Which brings us to my take. So I couldn't possibly cover all the election results in a single newsletter. Instead, today I'm just going to share 22 thoughts that I got down on paper about what this massive Republican victory means. Number one, in 2016, Trump lost Starr county in South Texas, which is a 96% Latino community, by about 60 points. In 2024, he won it by 16 points. That's a 76 point swing. In eight years, his numbers improved dramatically in Hispanic majority towns. In Pennsylvania, he came closer to winning New York than Harris did to winning Florida. According to exit polls, Harris won the Latino vote by just 8 points after Biden won that demographic by 32. Harris won 18 to 29 year olds by just 13 points after Biden won them by 24. Trump's support among black voters skyrocketed, doubling in states like Wisconsin. In Pennsylvania, Trump was plus 7among voters concerned about the state of democracy. These results have totally obliterated so many lenses liberals use to view this election through. It's hard to overstate. Number two, the Democratic Party has no scapegoat this time around. There's no Comey letter, no Russian disinformation plot, no Jill Stein, and probably not even the Electoral College. Trump looks like he'll win the popular vote too. They lost by wider margins than people expected in every single battleground state and won with less room to spare in blue ones. They're going to have to reckon with that between now and the next election cycle and the party will have to have some very real and very tough conversations. Number three, I'm unsure who Democrats are going to fault for their loss. Yes, the uncommitted vote kept its word and Harris lost all the predominantly Muslim towns in Michigan. But the margins far surpass what could be explained by any one protest vote movement. Yes, Harris did worse with non college white voters, but she also lost support with black voters, Hispanic voters and even women. The party will blame the left, the left will blame the center. It will be a total mess of finger pointing with no clear resolution or answer. Number four, Trump has made a lot of promises. Mass deportations, historic wage growth, the end of the war in Gaza, the end of the war in Ukraine, no taxes on tips, no taxes on Social Security, Social Security income, replacing Obamacare, expanding the child tax credit and cutting federal funding for schools with critical race theory or trans friendly curriculum. He has literally promised to fix everything. One of his mottos is promises made, promises kept. As with the border wall, these are largely promises we'll be able to measure in pretty definitive terms. He's thrown a lot out there to try to win over voters, and now he will have to fulfill a lot of promises he made to a lot of different people. Number five, Trump also promised to not do a lot of things. No abortion bans, no federal limits on IVF or birth control, no new wars, no Project 2025 agenda, no Social Security cuts, no Medicare cuts, no expanded taxes, no inflation. We'll be able to assess those promises definitively too. Number six Here are my biggest concerns about a second Trump presidency. He's vindictive, aging and unbound by any need to get reelected. He's easily consumed by grievance and his campaign is staffed with charlatans. And if he's surrounded by yes men affirming his worst instincts, we could be in for some very scary times. I think some of his stated economic policies, like across the board tariffs, would be catastrophic for the economy. And if he attempts a mass deportation, I think we'll see civil disobedience and violence unlike anything we saw during during his first term. His brand of politics invites people to relish in the misery of others, a kind of own the libs and destroy the enemy mentality that I think is going to bring us four more years of increasingly awful divisions and an especially bad environment for trans people or immigrants who became the focus of his campaign's ire. This all creates an especially dangerous social environment. Number seven, I'm more worried about extremism among Republicans at the state level, where radical policies are easier to advance than I am about it at the federal level with Trump. Several Republican led states across the country have passed dangerous restrictions on abortion that have made it harder for doctors to provide adequate care to women, and other states have been pushing censorious book bans up until very recently. These kinds of infringements on freedom of women and families to make difficult personal decisions and for what content individuals can access in libraries concern me much more than the vast majority of Trump's policy proposals. Number eight here's what I'm not concerned about in a second Trump presidency. I'm not worried about democracy collapsing or Trump attempting to stay in office beyond his term or creating some kind of fascist state. We will have elections in 2026 and 2028 and they will probably be just like the one we just had, free and fair competitive races where voters turn out and demand change from incumbents. I suspect Democrats will take back the house in 2026 if they don't win it back this year. Trump has reshaped the political alignment in this country. But he is not eternal and I don't even think other politicians can replicate his political movement. I'm not worried about us getting into a massive global war with powers like China or Iran, and I'm not worried about some kind of civil war here. I think we are in for a few months of instability before Democrats start strategizing about how to work with the Trump administration. Number nine, here's what I'm hopeful about. Trump will inherit a strong growing economy like he inherited a similarly stable economy in 2016 before COVID He managed that economy well and we saw record wage growth and record low unemployment that improved life for Americans from all walks of life. We are also well positioned for and in need of austerity and a reduction of government waste, which Trump has pledged to focus on during his first term. His unpredictability resulted in relative stability in the Middle east, which we are also in desperate need of in 2025. He's consistently shown a willingness to buck his own party if he senses a majority of Americans support a position, which means he should be receptive to the feedback loop coming from the country while he's in office. All of this gives me hope for a successful second term. Number 10 let's not start rewriting history. Harris did much better than Biden would have or could have done. Her performance mirrors what we are seeing globally. With incumbent leaders struggling mightily in the post pandemic world. This really isn't all that complicated. Inflation skyrocketed, masses of people have migrated, and we're living through major global disruptions in the Middle east and Europe. In the most basic sense, it is an incredibly difficult environment for whatever political party that is holding power to win in number 11. If you're looking for an illustration of how hard it is to be the incumbent party right now, consider this. Compared to Biden in 2020, Harris lost support from both men and women, both Arab American and Jewish voters, both Republican and Democratic voters, both white and non white voters, and both college educated and non college educated voters. Number 12. One reason Trump may have won in such a dominant fashion is that on issues like abortion or working class appeal that Republicans do worse on, he is the most liberal. I do not think Trump is a pro life president. I don't even think he is particularly conservative. That is what is so interesting about what he has done to the Republican Party. He's an ultra rich former Democrat from New York City, a moderate on abortion, a hardliner on immigration, and an anti globalism populist. If you were to chart all of Trump's genuine views on a Venn diagram with traditional Republican and Democratic views, I think he'd overlap nearly as much with Democrats as with Republicans. So Democrats are now forced to rebuild, but are they going to pick some Trumpist positions to build from? Will Republicans leave some behind? It is an odd dynamic. Number 13 speaking of odd dynamics, what's going to happen over the next few months? An incumbent president is sharing the White House with a vice president who replaced him on the ticket against his wishes and then lost the President elect Trump is returning to the White House to serve a non consecutive of second term, taking the White House back from the same person he lost it to Biden. And of course Biden will now have to oversee the peaceful transfer of power to Trump after Trump refused to do the same after the 2020 election. Oh, and by the way, Vice President Kamala Harris will have to preside over the joint session of Congress on January 6, 2025 to certify Trump's election victory. Number 14 in December of 2021, I predicted that Kamala Harris would not hold any political office in 2025. I can bank that prediction now. Indeed, I'm entirely unsure where she actually goes from here. It is genuinely hard to imagine her running for any office and her career in politics might literally be over. I made that prediction in 2021 because Harris has always been a pretty underwhelming politician on the national stage, and I think the electorate sent a very clear signal last night that our country is not interested in seeing her as president. Number 15 some free advice for Democrats. Maybe telling people the economy is great when prices are skyrocketing is not a great way to message on the issue. Maybe signaling to white men a massive share of the voting population that their very existence is inherently racist, sexist, or somehow in need of correction is not a good idea. Maybe trotting out Liz Cheney, the daughter of the architect of the United States prolonged Middle east presence, and Bill Clinton, the architect of nafta, as surrogates for your party is disastrous. Monstrously silly. Maybe not holding legitimate, open and fair primary elections is still a bad strategy for picking your presidential candidate. Maybe decent chunks of this country are perfectly willing to accept high levels of immigration but refuse to accept a disorganized, chaotic system that provides no resistance for millions of people to enter the country illegally or through a broken asylum process. Number 16 some free advice for Republicans. Political fortunes change quickly in our country, and the biggest changes often come in the wake of unbridled overconfidence. Number 17 think of Bernie Sanders today. He did his best to warn the party that this wave of populist sentiment was coming. In my opinion, he had the absolute best countervailing message to the rising wave of conservative populism in 2016. But he was ridiculed and boxed out by the establishment. And in the eight years since, he's been trying desperately to wake Democrats up to the realization that Trumpism is here to stay and that Democrats Democrats don't have a good alternative vision. He was and is correct. And while Democrats are struggling in races across the country, he won last night by 31 points. I think a simple read on last night is not so much about any particular Democratic failures, but that voters, just like a lot of what Trump is selling, Democrats, might do well to pursue a Bernie esque brand for the party going forward. Number 18 it is funny how massive election fraud and cheating in Philadelphia just magically disappeared around 10pm Eastern last night, isn't it? I guess Democrats just forgot to rig this one. Number 19 for all the talk of how strong the Democrats ground game is, Trump has once again sent a shockwave to the communications system. Democrats spent way more money and focus heavily on TV ads and well organized get out the vote campaigns. Trump had every podcast and media opportunity he could while employing a bunch of political novices in his get out the vote campaign. And Trump cleaned Harris's clock. The new media is here and the new dynamics of these campaigns are live. Number 202028 is going to be fascinating. Trump's party will be incumbent with an electorate always desiring change. But they won't have Trump. Democrats will have a new bench of leaders vying for a spot in the White House and won't have Trump to run against maybe JD Vance instead. It's really truly hard to imagine what will happen. Number 213 of our final newsletters about the election have now become basically meaningless. Footnotes the Iowa poll was a massive miss. The Puerto Rico is garbage story was a total nothing burger. The Arab American protest vote in Michigan happened, but it's now clear that Harris was going to lose Michigan regardless. A few other narratives that are now dead JD Vance being a bad running mate, Tim Walz being a good one. Trump ate into Democrats lead in Minnesota. Republicans were flooding the zone with garbage polls and that pollsters corrected for their past misses. And finally, number 22 many Americans are feeling scared and furious today. Many are elated and relieved. This election is going to impact some people more than others, both emotionally and practically, and we'll all be better off if we conduct ourselves with humility and give each other some grace with that. I'm going to send it back to John for the rest of the pod and I'll see you guys tomorrow. Have a good one. Peace. We'll be right back after this quick break.

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John (33:42)

Thanks Isaac. Here are your numbers for today folks. The time decision desk HQ called the race for Donald Trump was 1:21am Eastern time. The time the Associated Press called the race for Donald Trump was 5:35am Eastern Time. Donald Trump's lead in the popular vote as of 11:30am Eastern Time is 4,829,057. The number of years since a Republican presidential candidate won the popular vote is 20 George W. Bush over John Kerry in 2004. The percentage of voters aged 18 to 29 that voted for Kamala Harris is 55%, according to a BBC exit poll. The percentage of voters aged 18-29 that voted for Joe Biden in 2020 is 62%. Harris lead over Trump in New Jersey with 94% of the vote counted is 5%. Joe Biden's margin of victory in New Jersey in 2020 was 16%, and the number of first time voters that cast a ballot for Trump in 2024 is 54%, according to a CNN exit poll. All right, and last but not least, our have a nice day story. Insulin is the key chemical that allows humans to transform sugar into fuel for the body. Individuals with type 1 diabetes, however, have immune systems that destroy the body's insulin producing cells and thus need external insulin injections. Recently, scientists in China released the results of some promising new work. By reprogramming one woman's fat cells into insulin producing cells, the researchers reversed her type 1 diabetes. Insulin injections were no longer required within 75 days of the patient's stem cell transplant, a finding that led the lead study author Hong Kui Deng to say this finding suggested remarkable potential of this therapeutic strategy. LiveScience has this story and there's a link in today's episode description. All right everybody, that's it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, Please go to readtangle.com and sign up for a membership. You can now also sign up for premium ad free podcasts by going to tanglemedia.supercast.com on a personal note, I just wanted to say that I know for a lot of people this is a happy moment. Their candidate won. And for a lot of people, this is a sad moment. It's a scary moment. They're not sure how to deal with it. I think that the most important thing to remember is that our path forward has always been to embrace one another's differences, to find peaceful resolutions, and to try and see the best in one another. To move forward with love and hope instead of fear and despair. And no matter what, fight the good fight. America's story is still unfolding. And now more than ever, it is important for you to pick up your pen and help write the story. I still have a lot of hope and faith in all of the people of this country and a lot of fight for a future for my children, your children, and in the work we have ahead of us. And that work is best done together. We'll be right back here tomorrow, folks. For Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off. Have a great day, y'all. Peace.

Isaac Saul (36:47)

Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and engineered by Dean Thomas. Our script is edited by Ari Weitzman. Will Kabak Daily Saul and Sean Brady. The logo for our podcast was made by Magdalena Bokova, who was also our social media manager. The music for the podcast was produced by Darfum Tangle. Please go check out our website at readtangle.

John (37:08)

Com.

Isaac Saul (37:09)

That's Readtangle Combination.