Tangle Podcast Summary

Episode: The Declining Murder Rate

Host: Will K. Back (Senior Editor, substitute for Isaac Saul)
Date: February 11, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode of Tangle tackles a significant but under-discussed story: the dramatic, historic decline in the U.S. murder rate over the last three years. Host Will K. Back breaks down recent crime data, explores competing explanations for the drop from across the political spectrum, and provides his own nuanced analysis of what’s driving this positive trend.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Introduction to the Decline (02:58 – 07:40)

• Will K. Back introduces the episode by highlighting the major topic: the steep drop in the U.S. murder rate and broader violent crime statistics over the past three years, reaching their lowest point in more than a century.
• Notes the context: This follows a spike in crime during the first 2020–2021 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Sets up the plan to review various theories for the decline, the data supporting them, and to offer a balanced analysis.

Recent Crime Data & Report Highlights (07:48 – 11:03)

• The Council on Criminal Justice (CCJ) reports that the murder rate in 35 large U.S. cities fell by 21% in 2025—possibly the largest annual decline on record—bringing homicide rates to their lowest since 1900.
• Additional stats:
  • 11 of 13 violent crime categories decreased.
  • Aggravated assaults down by 9%, gun assaults by 22%, robberies by 23%, and carjacking by 43%.
  • Only drug crimes increased (+7%), and sexual crimes remained unchanged.
• Caveats: Data is provisional and may be revised, especially once FBI releases national data.

Notable Quote

"The murder rate in 35 large U.S. cities fell 21% last year, the biggest one year drop ever... to what could be its lowest level since 1900."
— Will K. Back [07:58]

• The Trump administration claims credit, citing tough-on-crime policies.
• White House Press Secretary Carolyn Levitt: “President Trump swiftly delivered by vocally being tough on crime, unequivocally backing law enforcement, and standing firm on violent criminals being held to the fullest extent of the law.” [10:08]
• Alexis Piquero (Bureau of Justice Statistics, Biden admin): Pandemic disrupted proven prevention/intervention strategies, implying their resumption helped.

What the Left Is Saying (13:03 – 17:52)

Skepticism of Immigration Enforcement as Key Factor

• Criticism of Trump’s claims that immigration enforcement is the main cause of crime reduction.
• Emphasis on post-pandemic social stabilization and community-based interventions.

Notable Quotes & Perspectives

• The New York Times editorial board:

  • On the post-pandemic turnaround:

    “We see two central lessons… The importance of public trust and stability... and the importance of law enforcement.” [13:34]

  • Lesson 1: Pandemic disrupted routines and norms (reckless driving, substance use, ‘moral holiday’).
  • Lesson 2: Mistaken reduction in enforcement of low-level offenses during pandemic; this approach being reversed.

• Justin Fox (Bloomberg):

  • Suggests pandemic disruptions and subsequent normalization explain much of the change, but not the size of the decline in 2025.
  • Proposes less-obvious factors:

    "The biggest development in U.S. law enforcement in 2025… Trump’s deportation campaign… but an even more important development may be that young men disproportionately responsible for crime are now too preoccupied with their phones and other electronic devices to bother." [15:17]

• Cleveland Mayor Justin Bibb (Democratic):

  • Credits aggressive city-led intervention programs over federal action:

    “It is egregiously misleading and brazenly hypocritical of the White House to try to take credit. The truth is that it’s all happening in spite of Donald Trump, not because of him... Our Raising Investment in Safety for Everyone initiative has helped contribute to significant reductions in violent crime across the city, with homicides declining by 26%.” [16:45]

What the Right Is Saying (17:52 – 25:00)

Multiple, Sometimes Overlapping Explanations

• Some on the right credit Trump’s immigration enforcement and law-and-order approach.
• Others see the drop as part of a long-term trend (since the 1990s), interrupted only by COVID-era disruptions.
• A subset emphasizes the danger of reversing course on enforcement as memories of the recent spike fade.

Notable Quotes & Perspectives

• National Review Editors:

  • Frame the drop as a continuation of decades-long improvements:

    “Relative to today, the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s and early 1990s were remarkably violent... In 2025, that rate was 4 per 100,000 residents, an extraordinary improvement.” [18:35]

  • List contributing factors: better policing, higher incarceration, older/richer society, improved locks & surveillance, disappearance of lead, etc.

• Brett L. Tolman & Jaron K. Smith (Fox News):

  "This data shows the power of real deterrence, the effect of giving law enforcement respect and support to do their job... The fact that these historic drops occurred in the absence of passing new laws gives strong evidence to the power of simply letting law enforcement do their jobs... Under Trump's unwavering leadership, the pendulum is finally swinging back towards sanity." [20:36]

• Charles Stane Lehman (The Free Press):

  • Emphasizes restoration of policing post-2020 as the driving factor:

    “Murder spiked in 2020 because of anti-cop protests which drove down police activity. And it's declined since because big city leaders started using the criminal justice system again. It's really that simple.” [23:50]

  • Warns reduced attention to low-level disorder could allow crime to rise again.

Host’s Analysis (“My Take”) (25:01 – 32:27)

The Big Picture

• Will K. Back underscores the rarity of positive national news:

  “A genuinely positive national story is so rare these days that we should appreciate the magnitude of the falling murder rate...” [25:13]

• Not just homicide—most major crimes are down; trend predates the pandemic.

Causes: Messy, Multifactorial, Not Politically Simple

• States no single cause explains the data; warns against simple narratives:

  “The only statement on this issue that I feel confident making… is that you shouldn’t listen to anyone proclaiming the drop is due to any single cause.” [27:03]

Process of Elimination: What Seems Less Relevant

• Gun ownership rate: unchanged.
• Poverty: stable or up slightly.
• Incarceration: slight uptick from pandemic dip, but still lower than pre-COVID.

Likely Contributors

• Federal Funding (ARPA, 2021):

  • $326 billion to local/state governments, ~$10 billion directly into public safety initiatives (ex: Atlanta’s outreach; Indianapolis’ grants).
  • Cites compelling research links between local mediation/intervention and crime reduction.

• Return to “Tough on Crime” Policing:

  • Voters in big cities elected more pro-police leaders after 2020.
  • Police empowered to focus on deterrence, even as staffing remains below pre-pandemic levels.
  • Notes hotspot policing efficacy is well-supported.

• Immigration Enforcement:

  • Some causality possible (deporting violent offenders), but data is limited and the trend pre-exists recent initiatives.

• “Stew” Analogy:

  “I look at it like a stew. Some components are immediately visible, like our post pandemic return to normalcy. Other parts you have to taste to detect... and some... are mystery ingredients, discernible but hard to place, that require deeper consideration.” [30:26]

• Mystery Ingredient:

  • Young people increasingly socializing online rather than in person, reducing opportunities for in-person disputes and violent escalation.

Conclusion

• Urges humility and openness; the decline is likely due to a mixture of factors across policy, economics, policing, culture, and technology.
• The real opportunity is to seize the moment—understand why violent crime dropped, and preserve the gains.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Will K. Back:

  “As much as we pine for simple explanations that confirm our priors, gaining any real insight from this topic requires humility and an open mind.” [27:39]

• Justin Fox (Bloomberg):

  "Young men disproportionately responsible for crime are now too preoccupied with their phones and other electronic devices to bother." [15:17]

• Charles Stane Lehman (The Free Press):

  “Murder spiked in 2020 because of anti-cop protests which drove down police activity. And it's declined since because big city leaders started using the criminal justice system again. It's really that simple.” [23:50]

• Will K. Back (Stew Analogy):

  “Some components are immediately visible... other parts you have to taste to detect… and some… are mystery ingredients, discernible but hard to place, that require deeper consideration.” [30:26]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Episode/Episode Theme & Context Introduction: 02:58 – 07:40
• Major Crime Stats & Trend Data: 07:48 – 11:03
• What the Left is Saying: 13:03 – 17:52
• What the Right is Saying: 17:52 – 25:00
• Host’s Take & Synthesis: 25:01 – 32:27

Summary Notes

• The episode is nonpartisan, fair-minded, and intent on breaking through easy political narratives.
• The host continually foregrounds the need for humility and curiosity regarding causation, pushing listeners to avoid single-factor thinking.
• The core takeaway: The drop in violent crime, especially murder, is real, significant, and likely the result of multiple overlapping policies and social shifts—not any one ideology’s victory.

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