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- [00:00]
Will K. Back
We will answer you all as soon as we can.
- [00:03]
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- [02:44]
From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle.
- [02:58]
Will K. Back
Good morning, good afternoon and good evening and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, a place where you get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking and a little bit of our take. I am your host today. Senior Editor Will K back every now and then, usually on Wednesdays or sometime in the middle of the week we pick what we call a flex topic to be our main story. And the idea here is pretty simple. It's a story that may not be in the immediate news cycle or the immediate headlines, but it's come up repeatedly in the issues that we've covered in the past few months. We've seen a range of interesting commentary about it from the right and left, and we've also seen some expert commentary and insight that we think could bolster our coverage and give it a little bit more depth. So today is going to be one of those days where we cover a flex topic. And the issue is the US Murder rate, specifically the precipitous decline in the US Murder rate over the past three years or so. Now, there are a lot of competing theories about exactly why the murder rate and really the overall violent crime rate in the United States has decreased so much in the past three years and seems to have had one of its highest ever drops just in the past year. And that's coming after a spike in crime that we saw during the first couple years of the pandemic around 2020 and 2021. So one of the things that we're going to get into today is exactly what those different theories are and the different evidence and data that backs it up. I'm going to offer a few likely explanations that I've seen based on my research, and then we're also going to talk about the possibility that the answer is really a combination of many different causal factors instead of a single one. So we're excited to get into it a little bit more of a policy discussion today, but it should be interesting and obviously hinges on some very tangible real world issues. So we hope you enjoy it. Before we do get into the main topic, though, I want to flag that we have a new YouTube video out today. So as the Trump administration has pursued its immigration agenda, which we've covered a lot here at Tangle, many federal agents from different law enforcement agencies have been reassigned to help with the new initiatives at the Department of Homeland Security. So this new video asks, how many agents does this apply to and how much time are they spending focusing on immigration relative to their normal duties? So our associate producer Aidan Gorman broke down these questions. He offered a ton of insight, a ton of interesting takeaways, and you can find all of those in our newest video, which we'll drop the link to in the show notes for today's episode. We'd really appreciate it if you check it out and of course, let us know what you think. Foreign. Here are today's Quick hits the Federal Aviation Administration lifted a flight restriction at El Paso International Airport in Texas hours after it said it would ground all flights to and from the airport for 10 days, citing special security reasons. The Trump administration has since said that the initial restriction came in response to Mexican cartel drones that breached US Airspace and were then disabled by the US Military. Number two, A shooter at a school in British Columbia, Canada, killed seven people and injured 25 and two others were found dead in what authorities believe was a related incident in a nearby home. Police said the suspect died of a self inflicted gunshot wound. Number three the Labor Department reported a 130,000 increase in non farm payrolls in January and the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.3%. The report also revised down the number of jobs added in 2025 from 584,000 to 181,000. Number four, the Trump administration reportedly plans to repeal a 2009 Environmental Protection Agency finding that highlighted six greenhouse gases as a threat to public health and welfare. The findings served as the legal basis for federal greenhouse gas regulation and the agency's new rule will remove requirements to measure, report, certify and comply with federal emission standards for several industries. And finally, number five, Representative Ro Khanna, a Democrat from California, revealed the names of six men that he said were, quote, likely incriminated by the government's investigation into convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, but whose names were redacted from the recently released files. Khanna called on the Justice Department to explain the redactions.
- [07:40]
Ad Host
It was just announced that the murder rate in our country is the biggest drop ever recorded. It's at the lowest level in 125.
- [07:49]
Will K. Back
Years, first in recorded history.
- [07:51]
Ad Host
It's the lowest in at least 125 years. It's a wonderful thing and that crime is way down.
- [07:58]
Will K. Back
In January 2026, the Council on Criminal justice, the CCJ, released a report finding that murders and violent crimes in the United States decreased significantly in 2025. According to the report, the murder rate in 35 large US cities fell 21% last year, the biggest one year drop ever since, to what could be its lowest level since 1900. Furthermore, 11 of 13 types of violent crimes tracked by the CCJ all decreased in 2025. Drug crimes were the one that increased by 7%, while the rate of sexual crimes remained unchanged. The CCJ annual report examines yearly and monthly rates of 13 violent property and drug related offenses reported to police in 40 large cities that reported monthly data consistently over the past eight years. In total, reported aggravated assaults decreased by 9%, gun assaults by 22%, domestic violence by 2%, robbery by 23% and carjacking, which is categorized as a type of robbery, by 43%. Not all cities reported data for every crime listed, and the data is subject to revision, so CCJ notes that the data should be interpreted with caution. In particular, the national homicide rate will be reported with more accuracy later this year when the Federal Bureau of Investigation releases data for all jurisdictions. CCJ expects that final number to reach four homicides per 100,000 people for 2025. Although the change between 2024 and 2025 is dramatic, crime data also fell across most measures between 2019 and 2025, including a steep decline since the spike in crime during the first two years of the COVID 19 pandemic. In particular, homicides have decreased by 25% since 2019, while residential burglary dropped by over 40%. Aggravated assault decreased at a lower rate, while non residential burglary increased by 1% and car thefts increased by 9%. The Trump administration has celebrated this drop in crime, with several officials crediting their policies for the dramatic decrease. President Trump swiftly delivered by vocally being tough on crime, unequivocally backing law enforcement, and standing firm on violent criminals being held to the fullest extent of the law. White House Press Secretary Carolyn Levitt said many policy analysts suggested that the declining rates were continuations of a trend that had been disrupted by the COVID 19 pandemic. When Covid hit and the world shut down, we basically turned off the water with respect to prevention and intervention strategies, alexis Piquero, director of the Bureau of Justice Statistics under President Joe Biden, said. Today we're going to cover what the left and right are saying about the decreasing violent crime and homicide numbers. Then I, Senior Editor Will Kbach will give my take.
- [11:03]
Isaac Saul
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- [12:25]
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- [13:04]
Will K. Back
Here's what the Left is saying Many on the left are skeptical that immigration enforcement is reducing crime. Some argue that broader post pandemic social trends are responsible. Others suggest that innovative programs in Democratic cities are contributing to the drop. The New York Times editorial board said crime keeps falling. Here's why America's leaders typically rush to move on from a crisis once it is over. But we want to pause on the recent surge of violent crime and its reversal. We see two central lessons from this period that can help policymakers reduce crime even further. The first lesson is the importance of public trust and stability. During the pandemic, reckless driving deaths from car crashes and road rage incidents increased. Alcohol and drug deaths also rose. Even little things like people using phones in movie theaters seemed to worsen even after Covid receded. It was as if many Americans took a so called moral holiday. The second lesson involves the importance of law enforcement. Virtually all sides in the debate made mistakes during this intense period. Among the most damaging was the growing belief among Democratic officials that enforcing the law could be counterproductive when it involved low level offenses such as public drug use, shoplifting and homeless encampments. The situation has partly reversed in the past few years. The defund movement is considered a failure, and many of its old backers have distanced themselves from it. With crime falling, however, there is a risk that public officials will once again become complacent. In Bloomberg, Justin Fox asked, are video games and phones helping to reduce crime? There seems to be a reasonably clear line from the social disruptions caused by the pandemic and the outrage and protests in response to George Floyd's murder by a Minneapolis police officer in May 2020 to the subsequent rise in violent crime. And the fading effects of those events probably explain much of the drop. They don't really explain the size of last year's decline, though. What does? President Donald Trump's deportation campaign was the biggest development in US law enforcement in 2025, and it's plausible that it is reducing reported crime, although not necessarily for the reasons you might think. An even more important development, though, may be that the young men disproportionately responsible for crime are now too preoccupied with their phones and other electronic devices to bother. The steepest rate of decline in the latest data is for murder. The CCJ solicited expert opinions on what its chief executive officer, Adam Gelb, called, quote, a historic collapse in the homicide rate and received a range of answers, several focusing on crime prevention programs that got a boost in funding during the Biden administration. A couple of respondents hinted at what one called, quote, larger social movements at work. And in a call last month, Gelb and CCJ researcher Ernesto Lopez pointed to one in particular, the decline in social activity among teenagers and young adults in msnow. Cleveland, Ohio. Mayor Justin Bibb, a Democrat, argued the crime rate is falling in spite of Trump and because of Democratic mayors like me. This week, the Trump administration tried to take credit for crime dropping in cities across the country. The DHS is right that in city after city, led by Democratic mayors, violent crime is dropping, with some cities even hitting historic lows. But it is egregiously misleading and brazenly hypocritical of the White House to try to take credit. The truth is that it's all happening in spite of Donald Trump, not because of him. Instead of working to reduce crime, Trump and Republicans in Washington have pushed unprecedented cuts to critical government and community based public safety programs that our cities rely on. But Democratic mayors have stepped up to demonstrate what real leadership looks like to continue to move our cities forward. We are managing what we can control and doubling down on programs and strategies that work, the majority of which were designed by and for the communities we serve and as a result of this leadership across the country, Democratic led cities are seeing major reductions in violent crime and homicides. We've seen the same trend in my hometown of Cleveland. Our Raising Investment in Safety for Everyone initiative has helped contribute to significant reductions in violent crime across the city, with homicides declining by 26%. Now, here's what the right is saying. The right is mixed on the causes of the murder rate drop, with some attributing it mostly to gradual social change. Some argue that Trump's immigration enforcement efforts are the biggest factor. Others caution against repeating 2020 era policies that they say caused the murder spike. The National Review editors celebrated the historically low murder rate. Commenting on his institution's report, the CEO of the Council on Criminal justice suggested that, quote, it's extremely difficult to disentangle, pinpoint what's actually driving the drop. End quote. Perhaps so. Irrespective, this latest reduction is part of a salutary trend that began in the mid-1990s and with the exception of the COVID era spike, has continued unbroken ever since. Relative to today, the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s and early 1990s were remarkably violent, with the murder rate swinging between 8 and 10 per 100,000 residents. In 2025, that rate was 4 per 100,000 residents, an extraordinary improvement. There are likely many causes of this change. Since the 1960s, we have become progressively better at policing trouble zones, an effort that has been aided by improved technology and the use of statistical tools such as CompStat. Since the 1980s, the incarceration rate has risen sharply, taking more repeat offenders off the streets. Over time, the United States has grown older and less active. Simultaneously, America has grown richer, and in most periods, unemployment has been low. Locks and alarms have improved, while surveillance has become more common, and lead paint and leaded gasoline, which some studies suggest caused impulsivity and aggression in those who were exposed to them in childhood, have all but disappeared from the market. In Fox News, Brett L. Tolman and Jaron K. Smith said Trump's immigration policies are working. This data shows the power of real deterrence, the effect of giving law enforcement respect and support to do their job. The fact that these historic drops occurred in the absence of passing new laws gives strong evidence to the power of simply letting law enforcement do their jobs. Conservative Americans have always known that lawlessness, whether from violent repeat offenders or criminal illegal aliens, makes our cities less safe. Under Trump's unwavering leadership, the pendulum is finally swinging back towards sanity. He is proving what we've long you can't have public safety without border security. Anyone who wants to call this immigration enforcement overreach should ask the families in Chicago, Los Angeles or Miami who no longer fear nightly gunfire and mayhem. Ask the parents whose kids are no longer walking past open air drug markets on their way to school. Americans don't care about DC Talking points. They care about results. The CCJ report notes that today's violent crime levels are even lower than they were in 2019, before the pandemic and the defund the police chaos. While liberals spent the last five years demonizing law enforcement, Trump stood with the men and women in uniform. Now we're seeing the payoff in the Free Press, Charles Stane Lehman wrote, the murder rate is plummeting. You'll never guess why. Deliberately or not, accounts of the tumbling murder rate are ignoring the elephant in the room. Murder spiked in 2020 because of anti cop protests which drove down police activity. And it's declined since because big city leaders started using the criminal justice system again. It's really that simple. Five years ago, the murder of George Floyd instigated one of the largest protest movements in American history. Local, state and federal leaders either endorsed Defund the police or more often acknowledged its advocates had some good points. Concurrently, police activity and staffing fell in big cities where most of the crime is as demoralized cops left the force. Unsurprisingly, murder soared. It seems like the murder drop is happening because cops are doing more with less. In particular, they seem to have focused on bringing murder down while sidelining other, less significant crimes. This helps explain surging public disorder, which has remained high even as homicide has dropped. But disorder can spiral into more serious crime. Putting off dealing with it now may cause big problems down the road. Whether or not it does depends in large part on whether we choose to repeat the mistakes we made in 2020. The surge in crime raised the appetite for enforcement, but as crime stats tick down, it's likely that criticisms of the criminal justice system, merited or otherwise, will once again gain public attention. Alright, that is it for what the left and right are saying now, here's my take. A genuinely positive national story is so rare these days that we should appreciate the magnitude of the falling murder rate before discussing its causes. The top line takeaway is understandably dominating the headlines. In 2025, homicides in the United States are projected to have decreased to a 126 year low of 4 per 100,000 residents. But that's hardly all the good news either. 11 of 13 categories of major crimes fell in 2025. 9 of them by 10% or more. Overall rates of violent crime decreased to below pre pandemic levels. And perhaps most promising, these declines didn't come out of nowhere. They continue a multi year trend. Now the question is why? The pandemic era surge in violent crime looms large over this debate. But at this point, COVID lockdowns, social disruptions to navigate the pandemic, and the racial justice anti police protests are fir firmly in the past. As seen in the commentary above, disparate explanations for this trend abound. Biden era community intervention programs, Trump era immigration crackdowns, post Covid social changes, improved trauma care, fewer shootings, lower unemployment, resurgent police forces, and even increased social media use are just a few of the plausible intermingling hypotheses for why crime and murder specifically has been decreasing. Of course, prior to the pandemic, crime in the US had been steadily decreasing for decades, so our present situation may be a continuation of a larger trend too. The only statement on this issue that I feel confident making with absolute certainty is that you shouldn't listen to anyone proclaiming that the drop is due to any single cause. Now that idea extends to most issues involving crime. As a public policy major in college, I remember presenting my senior thesis advisor with a regression analysis that I thought made an airtight case for a causal relationship between bail reforms and a decrease in crime. He looked over my paper, took a beat, and then he listed off about 20 different variables that I hadn't considered that could reasonably explain the drop in crime rates that I was studying. His advice from there followed Naturally, crime is a big, messy issue, and we're a big, messy country. As much as we pine for simple explanations that confirm our priors, gaining any real insight from this topic requires humility and an open mind. It was and is great guidance, and I'll carry it forward myself today. I'm not going to bog down this take with a linear regression, and that's probably best for everyone involved. But I think we can isolate some key factors that have and have not changed since the rate began to form fall. Now correlation of course, does not equal causation, but it can help light the path. First, the variables that haven't shifted significantly and are probably less relevant. The gun ownership rate has not changed with the murder rate. The poverty rate has plateaued or slightly increased depending on the metric, and the incarceration rate has ticked up following a pandemic dip, but it remains below pre Covid levels. Now other trends are more complicated. The rates of reported murders and violent crimes cleared by police have correlated with the violent crime rate. But as crime policy expert Jeff Asher noted in October, this isn't straightforward. Discrepancies between which jurisdictions report their figures and when could be complicating the picture, and higher murder clearance rates could be a result rather than a cause of less crime. Also, this nationwide trend is a composite of many citywide trends that are all driven by different dynamics. Some cities have implemented more progressive policing approaches, while others have returned to tough on crime policing tactics. All of these factors offer potential explanations worthy of examination. However, based on the current information, I don't think they're key causes. So what factors are more likely to be causal? Let's start with federal government initiatives. The Democrat led 2021American Rescue Plan Act. The ARPA authorized $1.9 trillion in Covid relief spending and $326 billion of that money went to financially stabilizing local governments. Some of these resources were dog eared specifically for crime prevention. State and local governments invested about $10 billion of those funds in public safety initiatives. One example was Atlanta's Street Outreach Program to connect community mediators with people identified as high risk for committing violence. Another was Indianapolis's Violent Crime Reduction Grant Program, which funds organizations offering counseling and employment opportunities to people in dangerous situations. Recent studies have shown compelling links between these kind of localized efforts and lower crime rates, and the quantity of funds deployed by the ARPA for these programs is one of the few initiatives of the past six years that matches up with the national scale of the violent crime decline. Overall, the ARPA threw a lot of money at a lot of areas, and while the overall allocation has been reasonably maligned for jumpstarting inflation, it also helped state and local governments reassert their roles in critical function like policing and public services. More recently, some on the right have said that President Trump's mass deportation effort has driven down violent crime rates. That was the argument made by Brett L. Tolman and Jaron K. Smith under what the Right Is Saying when they noted that the crime drop has coincided with an increase in immigration arrests. However, this correlation is just one year old and it may not be causal, and Tolman and Smith offered no empirical support to show those deported were responsible for crime rates in prior years. In my view, two things here are likely true at once. Trump is deporting some violent offenders who had illegally entered the country, and the number of those deportations cannot explain the sharp nationwide decline or the pre existing trend. An alternate explanation espoused by many on the right that the decline is due to the return of tough on crime policies is much more persuasive to me. As policy researcher Charles Van Lehman wrote in June, voters in big Democratic cities have begun rejecting leaders who embraced police and criminal justice reform in the summer of 2020 in favor of more outspoken pro police politicians who emphasize public safety. In turn, police have been empowered to pursue preventative crime fighting measures. The evidence for this theory is less robust than it is for strategies like community intervention, but it is more than plausible. One analysis from a pro police organization found a close relationship between police activity and the murder rate in major U.S. cities since 2018. Other studies have shown that aggressive policing in hotspot areas where violent crime is concentrated brings down crime. Lastly, overall police staffing levels in many cities remain below pre pandemic levels, suggesting that police strategy is more relevant than the number of staff. These dynamics need further study, but the shift toward more policing is likely another causal factor in declining crime rates. Politicians and commentators tend to talk about these policies like they're mutually exclusive, that if one works, the other doesn't. In reality, the drop in murders is likely to be the cumulative result of many different efforts. Federal funding, policing tactics, changes in elected leaders, and community interventions all matter. And yes, even large scale deportations could be playing a role. Holding all of these ideas at once is challenging, and some think of this issue kind of like a jigsaw puzzle. Others think of it like a math problem. Personally, I look at it like a stew. Some components are immediately visible, like our post pandemic return to normalcy. Other parts you have to taste to detect community based violence prevention programs increase police activity and heighten immigration enforcement, for example. And some of the more complex stews have mystery ingredients, discernible but hard to place, that require deeper consideration. Since I began thinking, or perhaps stewing on the decreasing murder rate, one potential mystery ingredient has lurked in the back of my screens. Young people, a demographic responsible for a disproportionate share of violent crime, now spend far more time socializing and entertaining themselves online rather than in public spaces. One fundamental principle of criminology suggests that when daily routines change, crime opportunities change with them. Fewer in person gatherings could mean fewer disputes that escalate into violence or opportunities for lower level criminality. This isn't to say that screen use totally neutralizes aggressive or bad behavior, and this hypothesis must reckon with the 2020-2021 homicide spike that occurred during a historic period of online activity. But people are much less likely or able to physically respond to an insult when it's delivered online and not in person. Now let's take a step back from all of this and zoom out. Right now, we have an incredible opportunity before us, a chance to not only maintain lower violent crime rates, but also understand them and carry those lessons forward. Taking advantage of that opportunity requires a willingness to consider all potential factors and to accept that the answers might involve findings that don't fit neatly into political narratives about crime.
- [32:27]
Isaac Saul
We'll be right back after this quick break.
- [32:33]
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- [32:37]
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- [32:40]
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- [33:04]
Will K. Back
To you all as soon as we.
- [33:06]
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- [34:25]
Will K. Back
All right, that is it for my take. Now let's get into today's reader question. This question comes from Nicole in Puyallup, Washington. She asks, why do the issues surrounding trans athletes seem to be all focused on their participation in women's sports? Are there issues of trans men wanting to participate in men's sports but being restricted? Here's our response. That's a great and fair question. Restrictions on trans men's participation in men's sports are a little more complicated, with more relaxed rules at the collegiate level but varying rules at the state level. As of February 2025, the NCAA's official policy allows student athletes of any natal sex to participate competitively on men's teams. On women's teams, student athletes assigned male at birth are allowed to practice but not compete. The policy is complicated by hormone therapy as testosterone, a naturally occurring chemical used in gender affirming and other hormone therapies, can also be used as a performance enhancing drug. As such, the NCIA requires trans student athletes undergoing therapy with testosterone to comply with its medical exception standards. However, some trans men have been restricted from competing at different levels. For example, Mack Beggs, a trans man wrestling in Texas, competed in the girls division in high school due to state laws, even winning the girls championship in college. Beggs wrestled on the men's team under the national association of Intercollegiate Athletics. Additionally, in the 2026 Winter Olympics, a trans man named Ellis Lunholm competed on the Swedish women's ski team. Now let's move into our under the radar story. On Monday, President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he would block the opening of the Gordie Howe Bridge, a new crossing over the Detroit river linking Michigan and Ontario, until the United States is, quote, fully compensated by Canada. The bridge is co owned by the US And Canada, although construction was entirely funded by Canada and is nearly complete. An agreement reached between the two nations over a decade ago stated that Canada would collect toll revenue from the crossings until it recoups the bridge's $4.7 billion construction cost. But Trump is now threatening to block the bridge unless the tolls are split 5050 with the U.S. trump's threat followed a meeting between Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Matthew Marrone, whose family owns and operates the nearby Ambassador Bridge. Bloomberg has this story and we'll put the link to it in today's show. Notes finally, here's today's have a nice day story. Daniel and Ginger Pulchuk live on Loon Lake in Washington State, where they've been a part of wildlife rescues during the winter months. One rescue in January stands apart. A deer had wandered onto the lake and appeared too far off the shore for the couple to rescue it safely. They called for help, and firefighter Gavin Gallagher walked out onto the thin ice in a technical suit designed to protect him if he went through the ice. He eventually reached the deer and managed to tie a rope around her. Gallagher then hugged the animal and they were pulled onto shore. The deer was released after being checked for injury and hypothermia. Grant Samsil, a Department of Fish and Wildlife official, said, quote, she ran off as expected to do deer things. The Washington Post has the story and some great video as well, and we'll put the link to it in the show notes. All right, that is it for today's episode. Thanks for hanging out with me as we did it as a bit of a one man show today. Hope you enjoyed the discussion of crime rates and the murder rate and some of the various factors at play there. We'll be back tomorrow with our normal edition and we'll talk to you then.
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Ad Host
Peace.
- [38:10]
Isaac Saul
Our Executive Editor and founder is me, Isaac Sol, and our Executive Producer is John Lowell. Today's episode was edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Our editorial staff is led by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman with Senior Editor Will K. Back and Associate Editors Audrey Moorhead, Lindsay Knuth and Bailey Saul. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. To learn more about Tangle and to sign up for a membership, please visit our website@readtangle.com.
- [38:49]
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