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Isaac Saul
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Extra speed slower above 40 gigabytes. E detailed from executive producer Isaac Saul. This is Tangle.
Isaac Saul
Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening and welcome to the Tangle podcast. The place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Sahl, and on today's episode, we're going to be talking about what is happening in Syria. The fall of Syrian President Bashar al Assad. There is a lot of stuff here. It is a super complicated situation, but we're going to try and break it down, make it a little bit simpler. Hopefully, I hope a little bit simpler. And of course, I'll offer some thoughts about what's going on. Also, I want to give you a heads up that today I'm using our reader listener question section to respond to some feedback to yesterday's podcast about the killing of United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson. We've been inundated with comments, emails. I think a lot of people I think liked my take from yesterday, but the people who didn't have been loud and heard and they've come in droves. And so I am going to try and reply to some of that too, because your feedback is part of this and you guys are supposed to be part of this whole project. With that, I'm going to pass it over to John for the main pod and I'll be back for my take.
John Law
Thanks, Isaac and welcome everybody. Before we get into our quick hits, I just wanted to make a quick suggestion at the top here that with the holidays coming up and families spending time together, politics is a topic that comes up and it can spin a nice moment into a difficult one with a pretty mixed political family. I know this is something that I'm thinking about deeply within the next few weeks, and as someone who has recommended Tangle to other family members, it has really genuinely helped us navigate these difficult conversations with a little more grace and more of an open mind. So if you're interested, Tangle offers gift subscriptions for both the newsletter and for the podcast. There's a link in today's episode description so this holiday season, consider giving a gift that says let's find each other again at the crossroads of humanity and healthy discoveries. All right, with that out of the way, let's get into today's quick hits. First up, after a five day manhunt, police arrested Luigi Mangione, 26, in Altoona, Pennsylvania and charged him with the murder of United Healthcare executive Brian Thompson. A McDonald's employee spotted a person who looked similar to the photos of the suspect in the shooting and called the police, leading to Mangione's arrest. Number two, a New York City jury found Daniel Penney not guilty of criminally negligent homicide and the death of Jordan Neely in an incident on a sub car in 2023. Number three, a Nevada commissioner ruled that Rupert Murdoch could not change his family's trust to consolidate control of Fox News with his son Lachlan. The commissioner said that Murdoch must honor the original terms of the trust, dividing control of the company equally between his four oldest children. Number four, the Haiti prime minister's office accused a gang leader and his associates of killing over 180 people, primarily elderly men and women, in a massacre over the weekend in the capital of Puerto Prince. The gang leader reportedly believed that elderly people in the area were practicing witchcraft and making his child sick. And number five, South Korea's Justice Ministry barred President Yoon Suk Yeol from leaving the country while he has investigated for his decision to declare martial law last week. Now to the Middle east and the historic change and uncertainty sweeping across Syria that could have global impact. Years of civil war and more than five decades of rule by the Assad family came to a sudden end over the weekend as rebels took over the capital city of Damascus. Dictator Bashar Al Assad escaped to Russia. Stunning turn of events in Syria. Rebels sweeping that country, seizing power, forcing President Bashar Al Assad to flee, toppling statues of Assad, cheering the end of the family's bl brutal half century rule there. Celebrations across Syria where millions of Syrians were forced to escape, but real questions.
Isaac Saul
Now about what could come next.
John Law
Syrians fought for years to topple him, but Bashar Al Assad is tonight a dictator on the run as a rebel movement sweeps him from power in less than two weeks. Statues ripped down, paraded through the streets as we drove in Tonight, signs of the regime's total collapse all around us. On Sunday, Syrian President Bashar Al Assad fled the country and was granted political asylum in Russia. Assad's departure marks the end of his regime, a dramatic turn of events following a 10 day offensive by rebel forces starting with the capture of Aleppo on November 30. An editor's note the situation in Syria is one of the most complex geopolitical issues in the world and continues to evolve by the hour. Today's newsletter is an attempt to catch you up on the last few weeks in a concise manner with links in today's newsletter to additional context or information for those interested the Assad family has ruled Syria for over 50 years. In 2011, protests against Bashar al Assad's government spun out into civil war with Russia and Iran supporting Assad and the Syrian government, while the United States and its allies in Europe and the Middle east backed the anti government rebels during the power struggle. In 2013, the Islamic State began seizing control of territory in Syria. The US and its allies then began bombing Islamic State targets in Syria in response, while also supporting the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish led coalition of US backed militias. Over the last decade, the Assad government has recaptured most of the territory it had lost early in the civil war and it has repeatedly been accused of using chemical weapons against its own citizens. In 2013, then President Barack Obama asked Congress to authorize targeted airstrikes against the Assad regime following reports of chemical weapons attacks on its civilians. Before that vote, the US And Russia reached an agreement to eliminate Syria's chemical weapons stores, though Obama faced some criticism for saying that Assad's use of chemical weapons would be a red line for the US and then not enforcing that line. Once Assad had crossed it. Assad has maintained power relatively unchecked for the past four years. However, the surprise offensive by the Sunni extremist group Hayat Tahrir Al Sham and Turkish backed Syrian national army has reset the conflict. Russian, Iranian and Hezbollah forces, who have traditionally supported the Assad regime, did not come to aid their longtime ally, and the rebel forces quickly recaptured territory across the country. Some foreign policy experts believe these forces have been stretched thin by wars in Ukraine and Israel. When HTS forces took the capital of Damascus over the weekend, Assad fled the country. Rebel forces are now freeing prisoners jailed by the Assad regime as they recapture territory. So what now? Deep rooted factional warring in Syria complicates the country's future. The global affairs newsletter International Intrigue outlined the dynamics undergirding the evolving power struggle. Russia is invested in protecting Assad's control of Syria as it offers them a strategic Mediterranean naval base. Iran uses Syria to transport weapons to its proxy militias, Hezbollah and Hamas. Israel wants to contain Hezbollah's strength in part by fighting shadow wars in Syria. Turkey is fighting Kurd forces in Syria to try and staunch a Syrian refugee crisis, and the US and its allies have long supported rebel forces against the Assad regime, which has often been associated with Islamic extremists, while also regularly bombing Islamic State strongholds. All the while, rebel groups have named Abu Mohammed al Jalani, the founder of hts, as leader of the transitional government. Al Jelani once fought in the Iraqi insurgency against the US While a member of the group that became the Islamic State, the US still has a $10 million bounty out on him. HTS was formally known as Jabbat al Nusra, or Al Nusra Front, and declared loyalty to Al Qaeda before breaking its ties with the group in 2016. Al Jelani has since tried to rebrand his image on the global stage, publicly breaking ties with extremist groups and promising to protect ethnic minorities in Syria. During President elect Donald Trump's first term, the US largely withdrew from Syria. As of 2023, only 900 troops remained. The United States limited presence, paired with Assad fleeing now, leaves a major power vacuum in the country. Today we're going to take a look at some of the arguments about what this means for Syria, the US and the region more broadly. And then Isaac's.
Isaac Saul
We'Ll be right back after this quick break.
John Law
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John Law
Alright, first, let's start with some agreement. Commentators on the right, left and abroad celebrate the end of Assad's regime while also recognizing that Syria's future remains murky at best. Many, however, maintain hope that this moment could be the start of a more positive chapter for the country. All right, let's move on to what the right is saying. The right is glad to see Assad ousted, but acknowledges that the next regime may be no more desirable. Some say that the US has no choice but to play a role in Syria's next chapter. National Review's editors explored the fall of Assad. In addition to his savage rule at home, Assad has become close allies to some of the worst actors on the international stage, primarily Russia and Iran. Iran specifically used Syria as a route through which to smuggle weapons to the terrorist proxy Hezbollah. In recent weeks, both allies seem to abandon support for Assad, the editors wrote. It remains unclear whether that was due to their having seen the writing on the wall or because they are now in less of a position to intervene. Russia because of its invasion of Ukraine, and Iran because of the blows Israel has dealt over the past year. At this point, it's difficult to know what to expect. Assad was a tyrant, but those fighting Assad were not one monolithic, freedom seeking rebel group. The rebels are a collection of lots of different rebel groups with different grievances against the regime, and this includes jihadis, the editors wrote. There was always a realist argument that as bad as Assad was, we have no idea what will happen without him in control, with the biggest fear being that Islamist groups could seize power in different areas of Syria and gain access to abandoned weapons. In the New York Post, David Adesnik wrote about what's at stake for America in Syria after Bashar al Assad. The people celebrated tearing down posters of Assad and statues of his equally vicious father who founded the regime. But the driving force behind these changes is a terrorist organization, adesnik said. Americans across the political spectrum want no part in Syria's internal conflicts, but we have interests we cannot afford to ignore. The first is the fate of American hostages in Assad's prisons, like Austin Tice, as well as their remains of those who died in captivity, like Majid Kamal Maz. Next, there is the matter of serious chemical weapons, which should not fall into the hands of a terrorist organization, regardless of what it promises. The US military has also spent more than a decade working with local partners in northeast Syria to dismantle the ISIS caliphate and then prevent an ISIS comeback. Those local partners, mainly Kurdish but also some Arab, happen to control the region that is home to most of Syria's oil and gas reserves. It is also the country's agricultural center. Without the cooperation of Washington and its local partners, Syria's new government will not be able to tap those resources, adesnik wrote. Will HTS allow Syrians to establish political parties and independent media? Will there be elections? Washington's careful use of incentives may help direct Syria toward moderation and away from an Islamic dictatorship. All right, that is it for what the right is saying. Which brings us to what the left is saying. The left welcomes Assad's exit and suggests the United States should take an active role in helping rebuild the country. Some say that the regime's collapse could foreshadow similar futures for other autocrats. The Washington Post editorial board argued, the US needs to help build a new Syria. To Mr. Assad, we say good riddance. The speed of his downfall is a testament to the illegitimacy of his awful rule, marked by mass executions, torture and support for terrorism. During the past 13 plus years of civil war, the regime depended on Russia, which carried out devastating airstrikes, Iran and its Lebanese proxy group Hezbollah, the board wrote. For Syrians, the nightmare of Assad's misrule is finally over, but euphoria over his ouster must be tempered by questions over what comes next. Before Mr. Assad's fall, President elect Donald Trump posted, do not get involved, but America is involved. Some 900 U.S. troops and an undisclosed number of military contractors are operating in northeastern Syria near Iraq, the board said. The Middle east badly needs a success story, a pluralistic, democratic Arab country committed to upholding human rights. For more than 50 years, Syria under the Assad family regime epitomized so much that is wrong about the region. With engaged diplomacy, the United States can help write a brighter next chapter for this strategically located and long suffering country. In the Atlantic, Ann Appelbaum wrote, the Syrian regime collapsed gradually and then suddenly, then after a well organized, highly motivated set of armed opponents took the city of Aleppo on November 29, many of the regime's defenders abruptly stopped fighting. Assad vanished. The scenes that follow today in Damascus, the toppling of statues, the people taking selfies at the dictator's palace are the same ones that will unfold in Caracas, Tehran and Moscow on the day that soldiers of those regimes lose faith in their leadership and the public loses their fear of those soldiers, too, applebaum said. The similarities among these places are real because Russia, Iran, Venezuela, North Korea and until now Syria all belong to an informal network of autocracies. But all such internal regimes have one fatal flaw. Soldiers and police officers are members of the public too. They have relatives who suffer, cousins and friends who experience political repression and the effects of economic collapse. They too have doubts, and they too can become insecure. In Syria. We have just seen the result, applebaum said. I don't know whether today's events will bring peace and stability to Syria, let alone freedom and democracy. Nevertheless, the end of the Assad regime creates something new, and not only in Syria. The fall of a Russian and Iranian backed regime offers suddenly the possibility of change. Alright, that is it for what writers from the right and the left are saying. Which brings us to what some international writers are saying. Many writers from the Arab world argue that Syria is well positioned to realize a more hopeful future with Assad gone. Others suggest that fundamental realities of the country could continue to hold it back. In Arab news, Ghassan Ibrahim said, syria has a bright future without Assad. We are seeing the beginnings of a new Middle east, free from the external interventions that have long troubled the region. What we have observed over the past few days, with Syrian opposition forces advancing in the north and gradually entering cities without destruction or bloodshed signifies the transition to a new phase, ibrahim wrote. This phase does not involve reopening old grievances with Syrian figures from the previous government, nor does it aim to provoke civil wars. This sentiment is shared not only by the opposition but also by many former officials who recognized the necessity of moving beyond Bashar al Assad's rule. Syria should foster relations with both the east and the west, focusing on reconstruction not just rebuilding infrastructure but also reshaping the entire state. There is a dire need for comprehensive changes in various sectors, from educational curricula to the internal operations of governmental institutions, ibrahim said. Syria requires a new approach to service delivery, emphasizing wise management that improves performance and combats the widespread corruption that has plagued the nation. In foreign policy, Arash Rezinijad wrote, syria is again a victim of its geography as much as the civil war was a sectarian and ideological conflict. It was also always a war created and fueled by the country's fundamental geography. Reza Najad said the country lacks significant natural barriers both within its territory and along its borders. To the west lies the Mediterranean, a route for trade and thus for military invasions. To the east lies the Euphrates River Valley. The south is bordered by desert and the north by the plains at the southern foothills of the Taurus Mountains. In essence, Syria's geography offers neither internal defenses to deter invasions nor internal strongholds as a last line of defense. One of the most significant roots of the absence of a strong national authority lies in the fragmented geography of this country. In the absence of national sovereignty, the country's national identity has also remained weak. As a result, Syria has become a target for attacks and conspiracies by other regional and international powers. More importantly, viable and accessible alternatives can disrupt its territorial integrity. For this reason, governments have resorted to iron fist repression to prevent potential internal collapse. All right, let's head over to Isaac for his take.
Isaac Saul
All right, that is it for what the left and the right are saying, as well as some perspectives from abroad. Which brings us to my take. So let me start by saying that I am not an expert on Syria. This is one of the most complicated geopolitical situations in the world, and despite following Middle east politics closely and Israeli politics closely, I have little idea about what's going to happen, whether this will be good for the Syrian people long term, or even why the fall of the Assad regime happens so quickly. There are a lot of theories, primarily that Iran and Russia were stretched thin in other conflicts, but none of them were totally satisfactory to me anyway. I know a lot of people will suddenly become Syria experts in the next week, but not me. I'm willing to admit I don't understand this country well, despite my best efforts. But I do understand US Geopolitics. So I'm happy to share a few observations about the region that I do feel confident in. First, I think we've seen over and over again that power vacuums do not last long, primarily because global powers are always ready to fill them. Russia, Iran, the us, Israel and Europe may feel differently about Assad and Abu Mohammed al Jelani, but they all loathe a country like Syria being leaderless. They will want a power structure, someone to negotiate with, a government to leverage a person who is in charge. As for who that person will be, all signs point to Jelani. Second, no country is a monolith, and of all countries, Syria is one of the least monolithic. It is one of the most sectarian and divided places on earth, which means the Syrian people will differ greatly in their reactions to Assad's fall. Of course, many are celebrating. Assad was a brutal and authoritarian leader. By some estimates he has killed 600,000 of his own people and more than 14 million Syrians have been displaced in the last 11 years of civil war. Dissenters and religious minorities are disappeared, freedoms are warped and oppressed. I think if I lived in Syria, I'd be on the streets enjoy a celebration, but a future with Jelani in charge is uncertain. Syria's sex and its lack of political power make it ripe for collapse. If I were in Syria, I'd also be worried over how the aforementioned power vacuum is filled. Jelani has been accused of committing atrocities himself, and all we have is his word that he won't commit them again. Color me skeptical. Third, there's always a lot of talk in the US about us playing principle across the globe, but Syria serves as one of the best reminders that we are far from the only foreign interventionist. Russia, Iran, China, Turkey, Israel and a good chunk of the European Union are all invested in the outcome here for different self interested reasons. And inside Syria, the warring factions are a reminder that the Arab world, the divisions among Muslim sects and Kurds and Armenians and more are enough to destabilize a country without any intervention from the West. Fourth, and with all that said, I think it is pretty clear that Assad's fall is a positive development for the us, Israel and the West's interests in the immediate term. While it's rather troublesome news for the Russia, Iran, China axis of power. As Dexter Filkins put it in an interview with Adam Rubenstein, Iran had Israel surrounded just 18 months ago. Assad in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Shiite militias in Iraq, the Houthis in Yemen, and Hamas in Gaza. Now Assad, long supported by Russia and opposed by the US and also someone who has green lit Iranian weapons transfers into Lebanon, is gone. Hezbollah has been seriously diminished and Hamas has been decimated. Fifth and finally is the question of what President elect Donald Trump will do. He has promised not to get involved with Syria, but it's not a promise I take seriously. The interesting reality for the US is that it can wield a whole lot of influence with relatively few soldiers on the ground. Trump wants a grand bargain for the Middle east and Abraham accords 2.0 the ultimate deal, and he doesn't have a prayer of getting one that doesn't involve negotiating with the future Syrian leader, whomever that is. Again, all of these trends come back to a simple reality. Syria is now being taken over by a relatively unknown entity at an especially fraught time for the region. Take Israel as one example. Israelis might be gladdened to see Assad flee, but one potential replacement is a group of Sunni Islamists who broke off from Al Qaeda. They are not exactly friendly toward Israel, and any intensity in the fighting to the country's north will present its own challenges and dangers. I do not know what's next. I'm not sure many people do. I'm glad to see Assad's regime come to an end, and I want to cling onto hope for the glimmer of opportunity the Syrian people have. But the new, unstable, unknown territory the country finds itself in does not inspire confidence. We'll be right back after this quick break.
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Isaac Saul
All right, that is it for my take. As I mentioned, I'm using today's your questions answered section to address our inbox, our social media accounts and my personal channels where I've received an outpouring of reactions to yesterday's podcast on the murder of United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson. So I'm going to list some common feedback that I got and then I'm going to respond to it. One piece of common feedback was that bombings of abortion clinics or attacks on trans rights activists are already happening. This is true when I wrote, quote, the left might consider how long it'll be until abortion providing doctors or trans activists or Democratic politicians start regularly being mowed down in the street in the name of striking fear into evildoers. My emphasis was on regularly. In the last 50 years, pro life extremists have committed 11 murders targeting abortion providers. That is more than enough already. And if your point is that there was less outcry over those killings than this one, then your point is well taken. Still, I'm not rooting for more murders, and I think celebrating Thompson's killing very obviously invites that possibility. Another piece of feedback I got over and over again was that actually, violence does work. Look at how Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield backed off its plan to cover fewer surgeries with anesthesia. So interestingly, the change Anthem was proposing could have made healthcare premiums cheaper for you and me. Fox's Eric Levitz explained this well. But the upshot is that our expensive premiums are due in part to anesthesiologists being overpaid, and this policy would have paid them less and lowered premiums in the long term. So it's not exactly a cause for celebration that they backed off this change. And it's a reminder that health insurers aren't the only ones responsible for our dysfunctional system. Another piece of common feedback I got is that however you slice it, it's good to send a message to corporations and the uber wealthy that we won't tolerate their corruption. Okay, I want corporations and the uber wealthy to care about our interests too. But aren't there a ton of other options between do something and murder? And what about the message this killing sends to disaffected young men? I really don't understand why it's hard to imagine how swaths of society celebrating a lone gunman killing a bad guy could inspire copycats and more viol violence. And it won't be long until the bad guys are people you don't think deserve it. Another common piece of feedback I got the whole point is that political organization and pressure has not worked. That's why people are resorting to violence or celebrating violence again. My goals are aligned with many of my critics here. Make healthcare more affordable and accessible. It wasn't so long ago that people with preexisting conditions couldn't get any insurance coverage from private insurers. Obamacare changed that. That didn't happen because a 26 year old upset about his own healthcare shot a CEO in the back. It changed because people organized politically supported politicians and groups who shared their interests and applied political pressure. It changed through legislation, long game planning and organization. I do not think the history here tells a story of peaceful organizing and political pressure not working. I think it tells the opposite story, and I don't think violence or sporadic murders are the solution. Another piece of common feedback Sometimes violence is justified. Many important political movements included violence. Sure, I'm not going to sit here and pretend this is never true, but there is a huge difference between organized political groups resisting something violently or even committing violence in the name of a stated objective, and a lone wolf deciding to buy a gun and single out one particular person. Organized political groups at least have decision makers, accountability and objectives that can be satisfied or addressed. And finally, another piece of common feedback. You are out of touch with how awful things are for many Americans. To this I can only just say come on. I've experienced our system in similar rage inducing ways that many of you have, and I shared one example in my Take Yesterday, the Story of My Mom. I think it is a cop out to suggest that all or even most Americans struggling to make ends meet or navigate our healthcare system are so despondent they support extrajudicial killings. I would wager most do not, and survey data indicates that I'd be right. If you are going to defend this action, you need to defend it on the merits without presuming working class people or even healthcare activists support an act of violence like this. I have many more thoughts about this shooting and your responses, and we may have to do a whole other podcast on it, but I wanted to reply to those overarching criticisms for now. All right, with that I'm going to send it back to John for the rest of the podcast and I'll see you guys tomorrow. Have a good one.
John Law
Thanks Isaac. Here's your under the radar story for today, folks. The latest results from the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey show a drastic shift in partisan views of the economy since the election. Democrats economic sentiment rating dropped from 91.4 in October to 70.9 in December, while Republicans rose from 53.6 to 81.6. Democrats were pessimistic about the future outlook of the economy, registering their lowest rating in this category since the start of the pandemic, while Republicans notched their highest mark since President Elect Donald Trump's first term. Although the latest survey found that overall economic sentiment rose to its highest level since April, the party affiliation results strongly suggest that political views are driving economic perceptions. Axios has this story and there's a link in today's episode description all right, next up is our numbers section. The year Hafez Al Assad became president of Syria was 1970, the year Bashar al Assad assumed the presidency after his father's death, was 2000. Syria's approximate population as of 2024 is 24.3 million. The estimated number of Syrians in need of humanitarian assistance is 16.7 million, according to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. The estimated number of internally displaced people in Syria is 7.2 million, according to the United Nations. The estimated number of Syrian refugees is 6.3 million. The estimated number of people killed in Syria between the start of the Civil War in 2011 and 2023 is 613,407, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. The estimated number of civilian deaths during that time period was 162,390, and the estimated number of chemical weapons attacks launched by the Syrian government and affiliated forces is 336, according to a 2019 report by the Global Public Policy Institute. All right, and last but not least, our have a nice day story. In 1939, sisters Helena and Barbara Stefanik saw their home Poland overtaken by the Nazis. They were placed in separate forced labor camps, although they were miraculously able to reunite after the war. Later, they separately immigrated to the United States. In recent years, age and distance have made travel to visit each other difficult. However, the nonprofit Wish of a Lifetime sponsored a trip for the now 96 and 100 year old sisters to spend time with each other. People Magazine has this story and there's a link in today's episode description all right everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, Please go to readtangle.com and sign up for a membership. You can also head over to tangledmedia.supercast.com and sign up for a premium podcast membership which gets you ad free daily podcasts, Friday editions, Sunday editions, interviews, bonus content, and so much more. And with the holidays fast approaching, don't forget that Tangle can make a pretty good gift for the entire family. If you're interested in bridging the partisan divide, you can join the Tangle team and gift our podcast with a link in today's episode description. We'll be right back here tomorrow. For Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing a have a great day y'all. Peace.
Isaac Saul
Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and engineered by John Wall. The script is edited by our Managing editor, Ari Weitzman, Will K. Back, and Sean Brady. The logo for our podcast was designed by Magdalena Bokova, who is also our social Media Manager. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75 and if you're looking for more from Tangle, Please go to retangle.com and check out our website.
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Release Date: December 10, 2024
Host: Isaac Saul
Episode Title: The Fall of Assad in Syria
In this pivotal episode, Isaac Saul delves deep into the dramatic and sudden downfall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Amidst over five decades of Assad family rule and a protracted civil war, recent events have reshaped Syria's political landscape, raising critical questions about the nation's future and its implications for global geopolitics.
Isaac Saul opens the discussion by setting the stage:
"Years of civil war and more than five decades of rule by the Assad family came to a sudden end over the weekend as rebels took over the capital city of Damascus. Dictator Bashar Al Assad escaped to Russia." (00:01)
John Law, co-host, elaborates on the sequence of events:
"Rebels sweeping that country, seizing power, forcing President Bashar Al Assad to flee, toppling statues of Assad, cheering the end of the family's brutal half-century rule there." (06:09)
The episode provides a comprehensive background on Assad's rule and the complexities of the Syrian conflict:
Assad Family Rule: The Assad family has governed Syria since 1970, with Bashar al-Assad taking the helm in 2000 following his father’s presidency.
Civil War Onset: Protests in 2011 against Assad’s government escalated into a full-blown civil war, drawing in international powers with Russia and Iran backing Assad, while the US and its allies supported various rebel factions.
Rise of Extremist Groups: The Islamic State (ISIS) capitalized on the chaos, prompting US-led bombings in Syria to target ISIS strongholds and support Kurdish-led militias.
John Law summarizes Assad's grip on power and recent vulnerabilities:
"Assad has maintained power relatively unchecked for the past four years. However, the surprise offensive by the Sunni extremist group Hayat Tahrir Al Sham and Turkish-backed Syrian National Army has reset the conflict." (06:07)
Prominent right-leaning commentators express a mix of relief and caution regarding Assad's ousting:
National Review Editors note the weakening of Assad's alliances:
"Iran specifically used Syria as a route through which to smuggle weapons to the terrorist proxy Hezbollah. In recent weeks, both allies seem to abandon support for Assad." (John Law on Right's Perspective)
David Adesnik, New York Post:
"Americans across the political spectrum want no part in Syria's internal conflicts, but we have interests we cannot afford to ignore... Washington's careful use of incentives may help direct Syria toward moderation and away from an Islamic dictatorship." (John Law on Right's Perspective)
Leftist analysts advocate for proactive US involvement to rebuild Syria:
Washington Post Editorial Board:
"The Middle East badly needs a success story, a pluralistic, democratic Arab country committed to upholding human rights. With engaged diplomacy, the United States can help write a brighter next chapter for this strategically located and long-suffering country." (John Law on Left's Perspective)
Ann Appelbaum, The Atlantic:
"The end of the Assad regime creates something new, and not only in Syria. The fall of a Russian and Iranian-backed regime offers suddenly the possibility of change." (John Law on Left's Perspective)
Global commentators provide varied outlooks on Syria's future:
Ghassan Ibrahim, Arab News:
"Syria has a bright future without Assad... Syria should foster relations with both the east and the west, focusing on reconstruction not just rebuilding infrastructure but also reshaping the entire state." (John Law on International Perspectives)
Arash Rezinijad:
"Syria is again a victim of its geography as much as the civil war was a sectarian and ideological conflict... Syria's geography offers neither internal defenses to deter invasions nor internal strongholds as a last line of defense." (John Law on International Perspectives)
Isaac Saul offers his insights, admitting the complexity of the situation:
"I am not an expert on Syria. This is one of the most complicated geopolitical situations in the world... I think we've seen over and over again that power vacuums do not last long, primarily because global powers are always ready to fill them." (Isaac’s Take)
Key observations include:
Power Vacuum Concerns:
"All signs point to Jelani." – Speculating on potential leaders amid the void left by Assad.
Sectarian Divides:
"Syria is one of the least monolithic. It is one of the most sectarian and divided places on earth." – Highlighting internal divisions that could influence post-Assad governance.
Global Interventions:
"Russia, Iran, the US, Israel and Europe may feel differently about Assad and Abu Mohammed al Jelani, but they all loathe a country like Syria being leaderless." – Emphasizing the international stakes involved.
Immediate Regional Impact:
"Assad's fall is a positive development for the US, Israel and the West's interests in the immediate term." – Assessing short-term geopolitical benefits.
Future US Involvement:
"Trump wants a grand bargain for the Middle East and Abraham accords 2.0... He doesn't have a prayer of getting one that doesn't involve negotiating with the future Syrian leader." – Speculating on potential US diplomatic moves.
Isaac concludes with cautious optimism:
"I'm glad to see Assad's regime come to an end, and I want to cling onto hope for the glimmer of opportunity the Syrian people have. But the new, unstable, unknown territory the country finds itself in does not inspire confidence." (Isaac’s Take)
Isaac addresses feedback received on the previous episode regarding the murder of United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson. Key points include:
Violence and Political Change:
"I've experienced our system in similar rage-inducing ways that many of you have... It wasn't so long ago that people organized politically supported politicians and groups who shared their interests and applied political pressure." (Listener Feedback Responses)
Justification of Violence:
"There is a huge difference between organized political groups resisting something violently or even committing violence in the name of a stated objective, and a lone wolf deciding to buy a gun and single out one particular person." (Listener Feedback Responses)
Isaac emphasizes the importance of peaceful political activism over violence, despite acknowledging the frustrations that lead some to extreme actions.
Presidential History:
Population:
Humanitarian Crisis:
Casualties:
Isaac and John Law wrap up the episode by reflecting on the immense changes in Syria and the uncertain path forward. While the ousting of Assad marks the end of an era, it also opens a Pandora's box of challenges that Syria and the international community must navigate carefully.
John Law adds:
"As of 2023, only 900 U.S. troops remained. The United States limited presence, paired with Assad fleeing now, leaves a major power vacuum in the country." (Final Thoughts)
The episode underscores the intricate web of local and international forces at play, emphasizing that Syria's story is far from over and will continue to be a focal point in global politics.
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This summary captures the essence of Tangle's episode on the fall of Assad in Syria, providing listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the event, diverse perspectives, and the complex geopolitical implications that follow.