Podcast Summary: Tangle Episode - "The Final Polls of 2024"

Host: Isaac Saul
Episode Title: The Final Polls of 2024
Release Date: [Insert Date]

Introduction & Recent Success

Isaac Saul opens the episode by celebrating Tangle's recent achievements. The podcast surpassed its goal of 2,000 new newsletter subscriptions ahead of Election Day, largely thanks to a feature by NPR in "This American Life." Isaac extends a warm welcome to new listeners and highlights the newly launched premium ad-free podcast available at tanglemedia.supercast.com. He emphasizes the value of subscribing for exclusive content, such as Sunday and Friday podcasts.

Quick Hits

Isaac and co-host John Marin deliver a rapid-fire update on the week's key political events:

1. Election Rallies: Former President Donald Trump is holding rallies in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Vice President Kamala Harris plans four appearances in Pennsylvania.
2. Unemployment Rate: The October unemployment rate remains steady at 4.1%. Employment rises in healthcare and government sectors but drops in manufacturing due to strikes.
3. FCC Controversy: Federal Communications Commissioner Brendan Carr suggests Vice President Harris's appearance on "Saturday Night Live" may violate the FCC's equal time rule.
4. Middle East Tensions: The Pentagon announces additional U.S. troops in the Middle East amid conflicts between Israel and Hezbollah. Israel has captured a senior Hezbollah operative.
5. Legal Developments: A federal jury convicts former Louisville police detective Brett Hankinson of excessive force in the 2020 raid leading to Breonna Taylor's death—the first conviction of its kind in Louisville.

Main Topic: The Final Polls of 2024

Iowa Poll Analysis

Isaac introduces the episode's primary focus: the latest Iowa poll from pollster Ann Selzer, which has stirred significant attention. Selzer's poll indicates Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters in Iowa—a state Trump won by 8% in 2020 and 10% in 2016.

Isaac Saul [07:21]:
"While the new shocking results Iowa poll from pollster Ann Selzer has been blowing up everybody's news feeds, it's just one poll and we should put it in the context of the broader polling landscape as we approach Election Day."

Selzer's track record is robust, accurately forecasting outcomes in Iowa and other states in previous elections. Despite this, Trump's campaign dismissed the poll as an outlier, citing alternative polls like the Emerson College survey showing Trump ahead by 10 points.

Perspectives from the Right

The right-leaning commentators express skepticism about Selzer's poll:

• Elizabeth Stauffer (Washington Examiner):
  "I don't think Selzer's final offering in Iowa is anywhere close to reality… there's empirical data to support that viewpoint."
  (07:45)

• Matt Margolis (PJ Media):
  "Seasoned observers and political instincts suggest the reality might not be as close as polls are letting on."
  (Approximately 09:30)

They argue that Trump's momentum and Harris's campaign missteps indicate that the race is not as tight as some polls suggest. Margolis emphasizes the importance of on-ground indicators over poll numbers.

Perspectives from the Left

Left-leaning voices acknowledge the neck-and-neck race but see the Selzer poll as a potential sign of Harris gaining ground:

• Nate Cohn (The New York Times):
  "The race is still a deadlock. This will not be one of those elections where final polls point toward a clear favorite."
  (Approximately 11:00)

• Josh Marshall (Talking Points Memo):
  "The Selzer poll is not close to what the real result will be in Iowa, and those using it to predict a Democratic landslide nationally are fooling themselves."
  (Approximately 12:45)

• Chris Lehman:
  Advocates for eliminating polls during the final election stage due to their potential to mislead voters and reinforce partisan narratives.
  (Approximately 13:50)

The left acknowledges shifts in voter demographics, with Harris improving among young Black and Hispanic voters, while also noting potential underestimation of her electoral strength.

Isaac Saul's Take

Isaac offers a balanced perspective, considering both sides' arguments and Selzer's polling accuracy:

Isaac Saul [20:00]:
"Selzer isn't going to tarnish her reputation in an attempt to play politics. Her poll's historical accuracy can't be dismissed easily."

He outlines four interpretations of the Selzer poll:

1. Accuracy: If accurate, Harris could secure a significant electoral victory, influencing other battleground states.
2. Directional Correctness: The poll may slightly overstate Harris's lead, still favoring Trump in Iowa but narrowing the margin.
3. Outlier Status: Selzer's poll might be an isolated anomaly amid generally conservative-leaning polls.
4. Dual Possibility: Both accurate and an outlier, allowing for Trump to maintain strength in other swing states.

Isaac emphasizes the complexity of interpreting polls and cautions against overreliance on singular data points, advocating for a holistic view that includes both polling and on-the-ground indicators.

Listener Questions Answered

Question:
"How much does the 24-hour news cycle and late-night talk shows that openly feed political bias affect how people vote or feel about candidates?"

Isaac Saul [26:55]:
Jennifer from Salt Lake City articulates the cumulative impact of various media on shaping political perceptions, emphasizing that consistent exposure to biased narratives can significantly influence voter opinions and behaviors.

Key Points:

• Media sources reinforce existing beliefs, creating echo chambers.
• Repeated negative portrayals can shape assumptions about candidates without voters engaging directly with their policies.
• Tangle aims to provide balanced perspectives to counteract media-induced biases.

Under the Radar

Isaac highlights the surge in early voting:

• Early Voter Turnout: Over 75 million Americans have voted early as of the latest Sunday, nearing 48% of the 2020 total.
• Swing States Leading: Georgia and North Carolina report early voting numbers reaching approximately 80% of their 2020 turnout.
• Party Registration: Democrats have a slight edge in early voting rates at 37.9% compared to Republicans' 36.2%.

This trend indicates a growing preference for early and mail-in voting, a shift accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Numbers

Key polling organizations and their rankings according to FiveThirtyEight:

• Ann Selzer (Ansel): Ranked 12 out of 282
• New York Times Siena College: Ranked 1 out of 538
• Atlas Intel: Ranked 22 out of 538

Notable Statistics:

• Harris's Lead: Among voters deciding in the last few days, Harris leads Trump 58% to 42% (New York Times Siena).
• Voter Persuadability: 11% of voters remain undecided or persuadable.
• Demographic Shifts: Harris shows improvements among Black and Hispanic voters, while Trump gains among white voters.
• Response Likelihood: Significant disparity in poll response rates, with white Democrats 16% more likely to respond than white Republicans.

Have a Nice Day Story

Lyft's Lift Up Voter Access Program:

Access to polling places remains a barrier for many voters. To address this, Lyft has launched the Lift Up Voter Access program, offering free or discounted rides to polling locations. Since its inception, the program has facilitated voting for 3 million individuals and aims to expand its reach in the 2024 elections.

Study Reference:
A joint study by Boston University and Harvard University found that in 2018, only 36% of registered voters without a car managed to vote, compared to 66% of those with access to a vehicle.

Conclusion

Isaac Saul wraps up the episode by urging listeners to engage with Tangle's content, subscribe to the newsletter, and consider the importance of participating in the electoral process regardless of political affiliation. He previews the upcoming final podcast before Election Day, emphasizing the significance of staying informed and involved.

Closing Remark:
"Remember to vote, and I don't care who you vote for—I just think you should participate."
(Final Minute)

Notable Quotes

• Isaac Saul [07:21]:
  "While the new shocking results Iowa poll from pollster Ann Selzer has been blowing up everybody's news feeds, it's just one poll and we should put it in the context of the broader polling landscape as we approach Election Day."

• Elizabeth Stauffer [07:45]:
  "I don't think Selzer's final offering in Iowa is anywhere close to reality… there's empirical data to support that viewpoint."

• Josh Marshall [12:45]:
  "It's an ominous sign for Trump. How ominous. How important? I really don't know, but it's not good for him."

• Jennifer from Salt Lake City [28:05]:
  "24-hour news cycles and biased media add up to just background assumptions that shape how you see political candidates and politics in general."

Additional Resources

• Newsletter Subscription: readtangle.com
• Ad-Free Podcast: tanglemedia.supercast.com
• Latest Video on Tangle News: YouTube Channel

Credits:
Podcast written by Isaac Saul, edited and engineered by Dean Thomas. Script edited by Ari Weitzman, Will K Back, Daily Saul, and Sean Brad. Logo designed by Magdalena Bokova. Music produced by Darfum Tangle.