John Law (4:55)

Thanks, Isaac and welcome everybody. I hope y'all had a refreshing and restful weekend, maybe some joyful moments that are gonna help carry you through the week. Here are your quick hits for today. First up, a federal judge ordered the Department of Homeland Security to return Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia to the United States after the Trump administration acknowledged he had been mistakenly deported to el Salvador. Number two, the Supreme Court ruled 54 that the Trump administration can proceed in its cancellation of roughly 65 million DOL in federal teaching training grants. Number three, the Senate voted 51 to 48 to approve a budget blueprint which will allow the Chamber to pass the eventual budget with a simple majority vote through the budget reconciliation process. The measure now goes to the House, which is expected to consider it next week. Number four, President Donald Trump issued a 75 day extension to the deadline for the social media app TikTok to sell its U.S. operations or be banned. And number five, the U.S. economy added 228,000 jobs in March, exceeding economists expectations. Additionally, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1% in February.

Isaac Saul (6:21)

Reliance on tariffs to bring wealth into.

John Law (6:24)

The United States and manufacturing jobs to the American people kicked in this morning with 10% baseline levies on just about every import coming into the US Far steeper tariffs on trading partners like China, Vietnam, India and the European Union are set to begin next week, the market's reaction clear and jarring, The S&P 500.

Isaac Saul (6:47)

Plunging 10% in two days.

John Law (6:50)

Major banks like JP Morgan now forecasting.

Isaac Saul (6:52)

A recession this year even as the president today posted encouragement saying this is an economic revolution.

John Law (7:00)

President Donald Trump's decision to implement a baseline 10% tariff on all US trading partners and additional individualized tariffs on dozens of countries has prompted a range of responses from Republicans, Democrats, heads of state and business leaders across impacted industries. With the individualized duties set to take effect on April 9, some countries have promised retaliatory countermeasures, while others have reportedly begun attempting to negotiate with the Trump administration. The administration has said that it will not postpone the start date. Meanwhile, steep drops in major indexes following the tariff announcement have continued into Monday morning trading. You can check out our coverage on last week's tariff announcement with a link in today's episode Description On Sunday, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CBS News that the administration was not open to negotiation with other countries about the duties. The tariffs are coming. President Trump announced that, and he wasn't kidding, lutnick said. Meanwhile, President Trump posted on Truth Social that the immediate term won't be easy, but the end result will be historic. Framing the move as an economic revolution to revitalize American jobs and industries, many Republican lawmakers remain aligned with the president. Representative Byron Donalds, the Republican from Florida, said that the tariffs, coupled with new tax policy and regulatory reductions would be a boon to America, while Senator Josh Hawley, the Republican from Missouri, said his constituents were absolutely thrilled with the tariffs and saw them as a means to get a fair deal for our products. However, several Republicans have publicly questioned the tariff strategy, most notably Senator Chuck Grassley, the Republican from Iowa, co introduced legislation with Senator Maria Cantwell, the Democrat from Washington, on Thursday that would mandate congressional approval for new tariffs and empower Congress to end any tariff at any time. Meanwhile, Democrats have been uniformly critical of the tariffs. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called them a tax hike on the American people, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries warned that the tariffs could usher in a recession. Additionally, on Wednesday, Senate Democrats, with support from four Republicans, passed a resolution sponsored by Senator Tim Kaine, the Democrat from Virginia, to repeal the emergency declaration Trump used to place tariffs on Canada. However, the resolution is unlikely to be taken up by the Republican controlled House Foreign leaders have also criticized the tariffs, and the European Union is reportedly planning to approve a set of retaliatory tariffs on up to $28 billion of US imports. On Friday, China announced it would levy a 34% tax on all US imports, the same rate that Trump recently announced for Chinese imports. Additionally, Israel, Taiwan, Cambodia and Vietnam pledged or enacted cuts to their tariff rates on the U.S. according to Commerce Secretary Lutnick, roughly 50 countries have reached out to the Trump administration to discuss the tariffs, though Lutnick maintained that the US Would not negotiate at this time. Major companies and industries like banking, air travel, aerospace and agriculture experienced significant losses on Thursday and Friday, while Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Tesla lost a combined $1.8 trillion in market value over the same span. On Thursday, US markets had their largest one day decline since 2020, with the S&P 500 falling 4.8%. The markets opened further down on Monday morning with the S&P 500 showing 3.5% in losses, the Dow Jones down 3.2% and the Nasdaq dropping another 3.7%. Today we'll explore reactions to the latest on the tariffs from the right and the left, and then Isaac's Take Foreign.

Isaac Saul (11:04)

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John Law (13:08)

All right, first up, let's start with what the right is saying. The right remains mixed on the implications of the tariffs, though many argue the left and the media are misunderstanding Trump's strategy. Some say Trump's execution of the tariffs may undercut his end goal. Others praise the policy but say the administration should communicate its rationale more effectively. In Fox News, Thanvi Ratna wrote about what Trump is really up to with the high stakes tariff gambit. When most people hear tariffs, they think about price hikes and trade wars. But the Trump administration's latest tariff rollout is not merely a knee jerk projectionist move. It is part of a far broader strategy. What is actually in play here is a high stakes effort to build up leverage and resources to manage America's debt, reset its industrial base and and renegotiate its standing in the global order, ratna said. In 2025, the US government must refinance $9.2 trillion in maturing debt. Some $6.5 trillion of that comes due by June, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Besant. Each basis.1 100th of a percent drop in interest rates saves the government roughly $1 billion per year. By introducing sweeping tariffs, the administration is creating precisely the kind of economic uncertainty that drives investors to assets such as long term US Treasuries. When markets are spooked, capital exits risk and equity assets as we see with the stock market collapse and piles into safe assets, primarily the 10 year U.S. treasury bond. That demand pushes yields lower. Some have called it a detox for the overheated financial system and it appears to be working, ratna said. Turfs serve as an ignition switch. By making imports more expensive, they create space for American producers to step back in. The objective is not to punish trade partners, it is to make domestic industry viable again. In the New York Post, Isaac Shore suggested Trump's tariffs may not deliver the American golden age he's promised. Even the most ardent free traders can see value in the US Responding in kind when governments implement protectionist policies that make it harder for American goods to be sold abroad. That Israel dropped its tariffs on US Products in anticipation of Liberation Day is evidence enough that there's merit to these tit for tat strategies, shore said. Unfortunately, the program Trump unveiled in the Rose Garden this week failed to deliver such a thoughtful vision. As countless economists, business leaders and other experts have observed, the rates at which Trump has proposed taxing imports are in most cases far higher than those at which most other countries are taxing American exports. As with those meager NATO budget contributions, Trump believes America is being played and only he and he alone can redraw the rules of engagement. Liberation Day reflects the president's penchant for full scale assaults as opening salvos, yet with reasonable room for revisions later on. Note his latest TikTok extension. On Friday, Shore wrote, leverage is the real goal here, and to gain it, Trump must convince trading partners to actually accept what he has made, so apparently that he genuinely believes tariffs are an economic panacea and will need significant concessions not to move forward with them. In Understanding America, Oren Cass explored the strategy behind the tariffs. Trump's focus on trade deficits and the need for balanced trade indicate a focus on proportionality rather than outright reciprocity. Reciprocal tariffs designed simply to mirror foreign tariff rates would have had little relationship to the problem he was targeting, and countries could have evaded them simply by dropping their own formal tariffs to zero and relying on other forms of trade distortion, Kaass said. If what Trump cares about is trade imbalances and he wants to use tariffs to force other countries to reduce those imbalances, what makes sense is to scale the tariff to the size of the imbalance. This is what he did. If this is correct, the Trump administration needs to do a few things. Number one, communicate the goals and rationales much more clearly. The American people, markets and allies all need to understand what is happening, cass wrote. Number two, legislate the permanent elements. The credibility, stability and legality of the permanent tariffs would all greatly improve if Congress codified them. Finally, Liberation Day needs to be the start of a much larger program of re industrialization, not a one and done action that effectively leaves the troops stranded on a narrow beachhead. Alright, that is it for what the right is saying. Which brings us to what the left is saying. The left continues to oppose the tariffs, and many say Congress should rein in President Trump. Some say the administration is offering contradictory reasoning for the move. Others note the tariffs positive reception among the working class, but suggest Trump's strategy won't improve their situation. The Boston Globe editorial board argued Congress should rein in Trump's tariff obsession. Presidents can't just impose taxes because they want to. They need to get permission from Congress. Tariffs on foreign goods, as every American with a 401 learned over the past 24 hours, are an unfortunate exception to that rule, the board wrote. That needs to change Tariffs may sometimes be warranted, but given the enormous economic impact, markets plummeted Thursday and manufacturers immediately began making layoffs. Presidents shouldn't have the power to just impose them on a whim. There are sometimes justifications for tariffs to protect an industry vital to national security, for instance, or in response to egregiously unfair trade practices by other countries. But in every case they represented a trade off between the interests of domestic consumers and domestic manufacturers, and such balancing acts should be considered carefully, the board said. Given the impact tariffs can have on Americans 401ks, consumer prices and job security, and the clear evidence that this president is using those tariffs heedlessly, Congress should have a say, just as it does in most other economic policies. With this much economic importance in the Atlantic, Jonathan Chaitz said Trump has already botched his own bad tariff plan. Donald Trump had a plan. It was not a good plan, or even a plausible one, but it was at least a coherent plan. By imposing large trade barriers on the entire world, he would create an incentive for American business to manufacture and grow all the goods the country previously imported, chait wrote. The key to making it work was to convince businesses that the new arrangement is durable. Nobody is going to invest in building new factories in the United States to create goods that until last week could be imported more cheaply unless they're certain that the tariffs making the domestic version more competitive will stay in place. Trump's aides grasped this dynamic but not everybody got the idea. Asked by reporters whether he planned to negotiate the tariff rates, the president said the tariffs give us great power to negotiate. They always have, chait said. However, there is a principle at work here called no. Once you've said you might negotiate the tariffs, nobody is going to believe you when you change your mind and say you'll never negotiate. To be sure, signaling openness to negotiate on tariffs is also a plan, but it's a very different plan than attracting massive investment into domestic production. In Jacobin, Andrew Elrod wrote, tariffs aren't enough to protect good auto jobs. The president's approach to the auto industry offers an opportunity to clarify the goals of US Trade policy. To understand what is really in the interests of working people. We have to separate the president's political whims from the changing contour of global capitalism, elrod said. For politicians and auto executives, at stake is whether the US Auto industry will be an appendage of a global market or a North American continental market or a national market. But for the 12 million workers in U.S. manufacturing, the question is whether it is possible under this administration and in this moment of 21st century capitalism, to create a pro worker, pro union trade policy. The Trump administration's focus on tariffs obscures the nature of this problem. Despite the accumulated traumas of waves of partial restructuring, the US auto industry has spent most of the last 16 years growing. When jobs last peaked in spring 2023, there were more than 1 million workers producing motor vehicles and their parts inside the nation's borders. Yet most of this growth is in non union jobs, elrod wrote. Whether Trump's tariff scheme will lead to a further growth of jobs ultimately depends on the level of demand in the economy, on whether people are buying cars. But it's not difficult to understand why his call for change has been received with enthusiasm among many autoworkers. Alright, let's head over to Isaac for his take.

Isaac Saul (22:34)

All right, that is it for what the left and the right are saying. Which brings us to my take. So this is not off to a great start, I think is maybe a fair thing to say. One of the most remarkable things that I've observed about President Trump is how so many people project their own values and viewpoints onto him and then they assume that he holds them too. Few things, I think, have illustrated this idea as much as Wednesday's Earth Moving tariff announcement. It has been fascinating to watch billionaire Wall street guys like Bill Ackman suddenly realize that they do not view this issue the same way that Trump does. I don't think this was foreseeable, ackman said on X last night in his most public break with the president to date. I assumed economic rationality would be paramount. My bad. It's worth recalling here that Trump spent an entire campaign season, about a year and a half, promising the biggest, broadest, most historic tariffs one could imagine. He spent his entire first term pushing for major tariffs on allies and adversaries alike. He spent his entire career as a real estate developer advocating for more tariffs. Kamala Harris, his opponent, warned Americans that Trump was going to institute major tariffs and cause a recession. Saying Trump's tariffs were not foreseeable is actually hard to wrap your head around. Jason Calacanis, another wealthy technocrat and political analyst, insisted that Trump would fold this week because he wouldn't be able to stomach the stock market sell off. Instead, Trump spent the weekend golfing, hosting a million dollar a plate fundraising dinner, deploying his top trade advisor, Peter Navarro to the Sunday shows to stress this strategy is not a negotiation tactic, and telling reporters himself that he won't back down from the tariffs. I understand why people project their own wants and worldviews onto Trump. I'm guilty of this too. I agree with a good deal of Trump's stated motivation that other countries often take advantage of the United States on trade and that our middle class has been decimated over the last 40 years. But Trump hasn't been communicating a coherent end goal, making it easy to project a plan onto the president. That looks or sounds like my beliefs. Last week I referenced economists like Orrin Kass or Steven Moran or Bob Lighthizer to explain the potential upside of Trump's tariff approach. Each has spent years writing about the complex relationships between trade, government revenue, manufacturing, the offshoring of jobs, consumerism and interest rates, sharing theories about broad tariffs and how they could be a part of a better plan to position ourselves in all of these areas. I read their thinking and then articulated where I agreed and disagreed, tying it all back to Trump's plan. And then Trump was interviewed and he explained a very simple and also absurd view. He believes that a deficit is a loss and therefore he wants to be even or have trade surpluses with every country. It's worth pausing here to explain how nonsensical Trump's actual position is. The United States is the richest nation on earth, with the most prolific consumers in the world. In most cases that makes us net buyers of other countries products. But in some cases countries want more more of our own exports. For instance, we lump our trade policies with Germany's and Netherlands into one broad policy on the European Union. But we have a trade deficit with Germany and a trade surplus with the Netherlands. Why? As a Council on Foreign Relations primer explains, we love German cars and machinery, and the Netherlands loves American medical equipment and pharmaceuticals. Dynamiting this free beneficial exchange with Germany to make the trade balance look the same between the two countries, as Trump apparently wants to do it doesn't make any sense. Now, for the first time in Trump's second term, I'm starting to see some genuine cracks in the president's approval. Republicans and Democrats in both houses of Congress have proposed bills to take away Trump's tariff powers. Hours after Trump said we are not going to lose a trillion dollars for the privilege of buying pencils from China, Elon Musk shared a famous clip of Milton Friedman explaining how free trade allows pencils to be made in the first place. The first real break I've seen him make from the president. Prominent conservative writers like Richard Hanania are now saying they regret voting for Trump. Even Alex Berenson, the COVID vaccine skeptic who skyrocketed to fame by criticizing Biden, has said Republicans would be right to impeach Biden if he had done what Trump is doing now. Others, like Batya, Unger Sargen are doubling down. They suggest that the reaction to tariffs is only a rich person problem and that Trump is the first president to put American workers above Wall Street Street. I find this suggestion ridiculous. Even if most market wealth is held by the richest Americans, 62% of U.S. adults own stocks. Tens of millions of middle class Americans have 401ks and stock portfolios that contain their life savings or that they rely on to make ends meet or retire, including members of my own family. More to the point though, a cohesive industrial policy would be good for American workers, but a major stock market crash and recession would not. Obviously, tens of millions of American workers are in the services industry that could be crushed by these tariffs. If you manage a business that involves importing parts for construction, you are also in very big trouble. There has to be an off ramp or a fleshed out plan for success, and there has to be a way to navigate the storm that's coming. But I don't get the sense we have that right now. As I've said already, it will be impossible to judge the outcome here in a matter of days or even weeks. It will really take months and years. Criticizing the risks of this strategy is easy and also my job, but it could still end up as the greatest economic trick of all time. If you really want to be intellectually honest, you have to acknowledge the possibility, however slim, that Trump's tariff gambit induces better trade deals, raises billions or trillions in tariff revenue, refinances our debt, and helps us confront China on trade. Still, to help manage the immediate pain and uncertainty, the administration ought to set some parameters. What do success and failure look like? What deals are we hunting with adversaries in global trade? How much manufacturing investment do we want to bring home? How much tariff revenue do we want to raise? Despite the lack of answers to these questions and what I said above, I hope this is all part of some larger plan to refinance the debt and invite better trade deals. But I also know I am projecting my wants onto this administration again instead. A good deal of reporting indicates that Trump's economic team spent months working on individualized tariff plans for different countries before he opted for a simple, broad formula to apply to all of them. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen has said over 50 countries have already approached him to make tariff deals. This is good news, as it could help us avoid a worst case economic downturn. But simultaneously, the administration has insisted they aren't going to negotiate, and Axios reported on internal frustration within the administration over the lack of structure to even conduct such negotiations. We've seen this pattern with the Department of Government Efficiency with deportations, and now with tariffs. Trump could be approaching popular ideas like efficiency reforms or reworking trade policies with fleshed out plans, but instead all the signals out of the White House show them shooting from the hip and figuring out the mess as it happens. I don't know what will happen now. As I was writing today's newsletter in this podcast, the 10 Year Treasury Yield started rising and bonds began collapsing. A complete reversal of oil was happening last week, which was supposed to allow the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Then Trump economic adviser Kevin Hassett said the president was considering a 90 day pause on tariffs and the stock market rallied. Then it dropped again when nobody could figure out where that quote had come from. A lot of people think Trump will blink as the market continues to collapse, but I'm not so sure. Despite Hassett's purported comments, Trump seems confident and unperturbed, and we know he is surrounded by yes men. Republicans in Congress could stop any of this at any moment if they wanted, but that would require defying the president. Meanwhile, Trump's base and the heterodox thinkers who support Trump unflinchingly believe this is another moment where the experts are hyperventilating and will be wrong again. The annoying truth, though, is that the consensus is usually the consensus because it's accurate. If the experts are right here, which I have an increasingly hard time doubting, we are headed for an economic storm. I'm not sure people have totally processed yet. We'll be right back after this quick break.

John Law (31:09)

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Dewey Thomas (31:39)

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Isaac Saul (32:13)

All right, that is it for my take today. We're going to skip your questions answered because I was bloviating a bit. So I'm going to send it back to John for the rest of the pod and we'll see you guys tomorrow. Have a good one. Peace.

John Law (32:25)

Thanks, Isaac. Here's your under the radar story for today, folks. Following last week's layoffs at the Department of Health and Human Services, in which approximately 10,000 jobs were cut, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Said that he planned to rehire 20% of the fired employees. Personnel that should have never been cut were cut. We're reinstating them and that was always the plan, kennedy said on Thursday. However, an anonymous source familiar with the administration's plans now says there is no plan to rehire any workers, adding to uncertainty about the agency's future as its remaining employees navigate the transition. It's been very difficult for people to understand and emotionally process, erik Svendensen, the recently laid off head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Division of Environmental Health Science and Practice, said Politico has this story and there's a link in today's episode description all right, next up is our numbers section. The projected amount of revenue without accounting for retaliatory tariffs that President Trump's tariffs will raise over the next decade is $2.9 trillion, according to an analysis by the Tax Foundation. The projected reduction in U.S. gross domestic product over the next decade as a result of the tariffs is 0.7%. The average US tariff rate on imports in 2024 was 2.5%. The value of US exports affected by retaliatory tariffs issued or announced by China, Canada and the European Union as of April 4 is $330 billion. The average U.S. tariff rate on imports after Trump's tariffs take effect will be 16.5%. The decline in Europe's Stoxx 600 index last week was minus 8.4%, its worst week in five years. The decline in Japan's Nikkei 225 index on Monday was minus 7.8% and the percentage of registered U.S. voters who approve and disapprove, respectively, of President Trump's handling of the economy is 44% and 52%, according to a March April Wall Street Journal poll. And last but not least, our have a nice day story. Police work has been linked to high levels of stress, poor sleep and mental illness. So when Officer Ashley Carson rescued a bunny while patrolling, the Yuba City Police Department decided to adopt him, bringing him onto the team as a wellness officer. Sporting his police canine blue vest, Percy works tirelessly to reduce officer stress and promote a positive, healthy work environment for the officers. Nice News has this story and some pictures and there's a link in today's episode description all right everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, Please go to readtangle.com where you can sign up for a newsletter membership, pop podcast membership or a bundled membership that gets you a discount on both. We'll be right back here tomorrow. For Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off. Have a great day, y'all. Peace.

Isaac Saul (35:38)

Our Executive editor and founder is me, Isaac Saul, and our Executive producer is John Lowell. Today's episode was edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Our editorial staff is led by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman with Senior Editor Will Kaback and Associate Editors Hunter Casperson, Audrey Moorhead Bailey, Saul Lindsay Knuth and Kendall White. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. To learn more about Tangle and to sign up for a membership, please visit our website@retangle.com.

Dewey Thomas (36:16)

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John Law (36:41)

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