Ari Weitzman (4:25)

Thanks Isaac and welcome everybody. It is also actually quite a snowy day over here in Fort Collins, Colorado. I'm loving it. It's picturesque, beautiful and hopefully y'all are having a beautiful morning too. Here are your quick hits for today. First up, in Louisiana, the US Recorded the first person to die with bird flu. State officials say they have not identified any other cases in the state and health officials maintain there is no evidence of person to person spread anywhere in the country. Number two, Congress certified President Elect Donald Trump's victory. No objections to any state's results were raised. Number three, Meta announced that it will replace its fact checking program with a community driven approach similar to X's Community Notes. CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the change is intended to prioritize free speech on Meta's platforms. Number four, President Joe Biden announced an executive action banning new oil and gas leasing across 625 million acres of U.S. ocean. President elect Trump said he plans to reverse the action when he takes office. And number five, the South Korean military detected what it believes to be a medium range ballistic missile test launched by North Korea toward the Sea of Japan. The launch coincided with Secretary of State Antony Blinken's arrival in South Korea. President Elect Trump weighing in on an issue that's been dividing some of his most high profile supporters. The controversy is over H1B visas that allow foreigners with highly coveted tech skills to work in the US for up to six years. That comes after Trump told the New York Post, I've always liked the visas, even though he criticized them while running for president in 2016, now saying, I have many H1B visas on my properties. I've been a believer in H1B. It's a great program. In recent weeks, the H1B visa program has prompted vigorous discussion about the US immigration system, foreign workers and the tech industry. The debate has proved divisive among supporters of President Elect Donald Trump and has sparked disagreement on the left. Most notably, tech entrepreneurs like Elon Musk voiced strong support for H1B visas to help them access skilled international talent, while proponents of restrictionist immigration policies and progressives like Senator Bernie Sanders, the independent from Vermont, argued that the incoming Trump administration should scale back or eliminate the program. The H1B visa program enables US companies to temporarily hire skilled foreign workers, typically in STEM fields science, technology, engineering and mathematics, with added stipulations meant to protect US Workers from being adversely affected, such as requiring employers to pay H1B workers equal or greater wages as nonimmigrants in comparable roles. Visa applicants must have the equivalent education of a bachelor's degree, and workers can stay in the country for up to six years while employed on an H1B visa. H1B visas were established by the 1990 Immigration act, but the program also has its roots in the 1952 Immigration and nationality act, which created immigration criteria that considered employment and work skills. The government issues 85,000 new H1B visas per year, with significant caps for different countries and regions, and awards visas to applicants through a lottery system. In recent decades, major companies like Amazon, IBM, Meta and Microsoft have hired significant numbers of foreign workers through the program, often submitting hundreds of thousands of petitions for visas each year. The recent debate began when Laura Loomer, a conservative activist and outspoken Trump supporter, criticized the president elect selection of Indian American venture capitalist Sriram Krishnan as an advisor on artificial intelligence policy, suggesting that Krishnan would advocate for lax immigration policies related to hiring foreign workers. Prominent tech entrepreneurs including Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy rebuked the comments, arguing that the US should recruit and welcome skilled foreign workers while criticizing the work culture among many American candidates. The comments sparked significant debate over the merits of hiring foreign workers instead of Americans, the US tech industry's reliance on the H1B program, work culture in America, and the value of restrictionist immigration policy. During his 2016 presidential campaign, Trump came out against H1B visas but has since expressed support for the program, recently saying that he is a believer in H1B. Meanwhile, Musk has softened his initial stance, posting on X that it is very clear that the program is broken and needs major reform and proposing several changes. While many Democrats affirmed their support for the program during the debate, some progressive lawmakers criticized it. On Thursday, Senator Bernie Sanders argued H1B visas are a mechanism for US companies to replace good paying American jobs with low wage indentured servants from abroad. Elsewhere, lawmakers from both parties have backed partisan reforms to the program to address potential abuses. Today we'll dive into the debate over H1B visas with views from the left and the right, and then Isaac's take.

John Mull (10:02)

We'll be right back after this quick break.

Isaac Saul (10:08)

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Ari Weitzman (10:45)

All right, first up, let's start with what the left is saying. The left largely supports the program, but many support moderate reforms. Some view the current system as a tool to undermine American workers. Others suggest that changes to the program's administration could address concerns from both sides. The Boston Globe editorial board said Trump gets it right on skilled worker visas MAGA hardliners may be apoplectic, but President Elect Donald Trump got it spot on when he embraced the kind of visa program used to bring highly skilled technology workers to this country. An article of faith for the tech Bros. Who supported Trump during his campaign, the board wrote. Expanding the program, which is currently capped at a piddling 85,000, 65,000 plus another 20,000 reserved for those who graduate from US universities with a master's degree or higher, is critical to the kind of economic growth and competitiveness that Trump supported all through his campaign. If Musk and his co director on Trump's effort to cut government waste, Vivek Ramaswamy, do nothing beyond convincing the incoming administration to cut that red tape, reach out beyond this nation's borders and invite in those with the talent and the drive to help build this nation, they will have done a great service, the board said. There is also nothing contradictory about supporting a well organized visa program that helps deliver the workforce America needs and still provides the secure border which Trump has also promised to deliver. In the American Prospect, Ryan Cooper wrote, president Musk declares war on American workers. Oligarchs like Musk and David Sachs say the H1B program is vital because Americans are too stupid and lazy to learn technical skills. This is not remotely true. On the contrary, there is currently a sizable surplus of technical labor as the generation that had to learn code as the automatic route to a six figure salary beaten into them graduates while the tech industry conducts massive layoffs, Cooper said. The real reason the capitalist class loves H1B is as a weapon of class warfare. First, it provides a pool of highly exploitable labor who have to obey the boss's every command or risk deportation. Second, that pool provides leverage against domestic workers who who have to compete against exploited H1Bs. In short, the MAGA faithful are not entirely incorrect to say H1B harms the American working class, cooper wrote. However, the solution is not to deport all the visa holders, but to fold the program into a streamlined general employment based visa program which leads to permanent residency and give them all green cards so they are not so exploitable. Alas, that kind of sensible immigration reform is not going to happen with Trump as president. In the Washington Post, Rishi Sharma and Chad Sparber shared a solution to Trump World's Civil War over H1B visas. Current law limits the number of new H1B workers to 85,000 per year. Demand for these visas far exceeds supply. For fiscal 2025, U.S. citizenship and Immigration Services received more than 470,000 petitions, so applicants have roughly a 1 in 5 chance of winning the right to work in the United States. Sharma and Sparber as any lottery player knows, the more tickets you buy, the greater chances of winning. Since firms petition for H1B status on behalf of specific prospective employees, they search for and extend job offers to a large number of individuals who will never get a visa. What's the remedy? Replace the lottery with an auction. The United States can move in this direction by allowing firms to select, bid for and pay for the workers they most desire. The government could then earmark this revenue for training American workers instead skills, thus using the H1B program as a vehicle to invest in American workers, Sharma and Sparber wrote. This auction idea is not a new one. What is new is academic evidence that such a policy would be cost neutral to firms. Billions of dollars wasted on superfluous job searches would instead flow to government coffers. The role of outsourcing firms would decrease and revenue would bolster the American STEM workforce. Alright, that is it for what the left is saying. Which brings us to what the right is saying. The right is mixed on H1B visas, with many backing President Elect Trump's stance. Some say the program needs significant reforms to prioritize American workers. Others argue the election showed voters want less immigration of any kind. The Wall Street Journal editorial board said Trump is right on H1B visas. Mr. Trump is choosing the side of enlightened nationalism as opposed to the blinkered, declinist version. Mr. Trump's position isn't surprising since he has often said he favors skilled immigration. In June, he told a podcast with Silicon Valley potentates that if anybody graduates from a college, you go in there for two years or four years. If you graduate or you get a doctorate degree from a college, you should be able to stay in this country. The US Is in a global competition for economic and technological leadership, and US Firms need the best talent. Studies show that when applicants are denied H1BS, they go abroad. There have been some abuses of the H1B program, but they are no reason to shrink or eliminate it. US Companies find it crucial to compete, and one way to reduce illegal immigration is to allow more legal pathways to meet the needs of the US Economy, the board said. Some conservatives want to define nationalism solely by geography and ethnicity, but the US has thrived because it has invited talented newcomers from many nations who add to us strength and vitality. This is intelligent nationalism of the kind we assume Mr. Trump wants. In Newsweek, John Macleon argued fixing the H1B visa begins at home, not with more migrants. America's education system is failing to produce the workforce it needs. This isn't a matter of intelligence. Indian and Chinese students aren't born smarter than Americans. Their edge lies in rigorous preparation, while US Schools flounder in ideological battles and declining standards, macleon wrote. Tech companies desperate for skilled labor have turned to H1B visas as a crutch. The program, while valuable in theory, is often exploited in practice. Instead of reserving these visas for truly exceptional, specialized talent. Many companies use them to import cheaper labor, sidelining qualified Americans in the process. But why should America settle for this? The talent exists within its borders. It simply needs to be nurtured. Apprenticeships offer a way out of this quagmire. Forget the bloated and ideologically fraught university system. Envision a streamlined, company led program that trains young Americans in practical, real world skills without the debt and distractions of academia, macleon said. America has always thrived by attracting the best from around the world. The H1B program, if used responsibly, can bring in hyper specialized talent to complement a strong domestic workforce. But the foundation must be American. In the Federalist, B.L. hahn wrote about what Elon and Vivek get wrong about H1B immigration and American exceptionalism. Those with a vested interest in the current system scrambled to defend the program as the general narrative for mass migration went from just doing American jobs won't do to Americans are the equivalent of lobotomized torsos who lack the mental and physical capability to do literally any job, hahn said. There's a spectrum of beliefs on the issue, but if you distill the discussion to its core, almost everyone falls into one of two groups. Chamber of Commerce growth at all cost types who see America as a sports team or two. Those who see America as people with a specific culture. If the election didn't make this clear, I'll state it as plainly as we want less immigration. That includes legal immigrants and H1B workers. And please stop telling us America will always be as American as ever, regardless of how many foreigners we import, hahn wrote. If there's one decisive victory of the Trump era, it's that we aren't playing that game anymore, and the name calling in response is no longer a deterrent. America has done its share of charitable immigration. We've welcomed people from every part of the world. It's time to put Americans first, and that includes reforming the H1B visa program. Alright, let's head over to Isaac for his take.

John Mull (19:57)

All right, that is it for what the left and the right are saying. Which brings us to my take. So these kinds of disagreements are what happens when you run a big tent political campaign and build a broader ideological coalition. Everyone is happy to get under one roof, but it does not take long for the fractures to show for MAGA World. I think this debate is good and healthy. That they're having a debate before Trump's even sworn in is not surprising to me, and I don't think it portends some major Musk Trump Maga world breakup, though I will say I do think Musk's days in Trump's close orbit are probably numbered. What is surprising to me is just how many people in Trump's orbit, or how many of his loyal followers seem to have imagined that people like Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy were on their side on this issue. I will genuinely never understand how people come to believe that these rich technocrats circling Trump aren't primarily interested in advancing their own agendas. Tesla has doubled its H1B visa workers over the last year, and all of Musk's companies very obviously lean on foreign labor to operate. Ramaswamy made his views clear, saying American culture has venerated mediocrity over excellence. That broad viewpoint on Americans reads an awful lot like the way old school racists view black or Hispanic families lazy, low standard, and uninterested in education. Ramaswamy's posts predictably went over like a lead balloon in Magaworld. While intraparty fighting and unfolding social dynamics are always captivating, though, the policy debate here is far more complicated and to me, far more interesting. Last year we published an excellent reader essay by Yash Swarma, a legal immigrant from India who is in the United states on an H1B visa. Given that most H1B workers are Indians, and Indians also make up a huge percentage of our highly skilled immigrants, the piece is more relevant now than ever before. I don't agree with all of Sharma's conclusions, but he does a great job laying out how the program works, how it ties your life to your job, and how it leaves H1B visa holders living in fear, unable to actually settle down in their new country and at the total whim of their employers. While he's criticizing the hard to deny racist roots of some immigration rules we still operate under, Sharma also hammers the Biden administration for giving work permits to unauthorized migrants, granting people here illegally the right to stay with few restrictions. While people like Sharma who came legally are at the whims of their employer and the timeline for renewal. Directionally, a lot of what Sharma wrote resonates with me also, even though I've criticized him a lot recently. Musk is right about this issue too. Skilled immigrants are good for the US on net. They help our economy, they create more jobs by helping companies succeed, and they start companies at a higher rate than native born workers, some of which turn into household names or industry goliaths, as Musk put it in a simple but effective analogy. If you want the best team I. E. Country, you recruit the best players, that is Immigrants. In my free market brain I look at this and think these trade offs are worth it, even if it means some native born workers lose out on the jobs they desire. But surprisingly, such a justification isn't even necessary. First of all, the program is explicitly designed not to harm U.S. workers, and it seems like it's working as intended. There's little evidence H1B workers actually depress the wages of native workers or take jobs from them. I'd love to give Trump some credit here for taking the must side of, as the Wall Street Journal put it, enlightened nationalism, but it appears he actually confused the H1B program with the H2B program that is more common among hospitality and construction workers. In an interview, Trump said he was a believer in H1B and has used it many times at his properties, which was kind of the tell that he had the programs confused. Still, though, Trump and Musk both acknowledge that visas are a good way to fill a lot of jobs while also ensuring our country's place as a dest destination for global talent. Which is true and correct. All of this is to say that in my larger framework for solving our immigration crisis, the H1B program fits in nicely. I want more border enforcement, more adjudication of asylum claims, a clearing of the backlog of people here illegally, and more incentives to come here legally. Our goal fundamentally should be to decrease illegal immigration and increase legal immigration. That way, as a society and government, we can do the very basic thing of deciding who gets to come and who doesn't. One facet of that is opening the door for skilled engineers who want to bolster our tech industry and make sure we keep winning on the global stage. That is a okay with me. Some Criticisms of the H1B program Strike Me as unfair, if not absurd. For instance, comparing the program to indentured servitude seems like a bombastic and extreme claim. Indentured servants mortgage away their very freedom. They don't make six figures, get fought over for desirable jobs, and operate freely in society. The average annual salary for an H1B holder in a computer related job was $132,000 in 2023, and the law compels companies to pay visa holders what comparable U.S. workers earn. I believe most of these workers, including workers like Sharma, are critical of the program because they want more assurances that they can stay here legally because their lives here are good. We shouldn't lose sight of that in discussing the issue yet, as Sharma and others have documented, the program does allow for some abusive practices, even if it doesn't result in underpaid workers. Or isn't wholesale taking jobs from Americans the incentive to hire H1B workers who face deportation if you decide to fire them is obvious. The dynamic is not healthy, and there is no easy fix to that part of the program without effectively inventing an entirely new one. There are some good reforms on the table, though. The lottery process is wasteful. As Rishi Sharma and Chad Sparber documented in their Washington Post piece, firms ask for more visas than they will ever get, like someone buying rolls off raffle tickets to increase their chances of winning. And the result is a lot of wasted money, time and applications for people who will never get a visa to come here. Sharma and Sparber suggest replacing the lottery with an auction system, encouraging companies to bid for the workers they most desire. The proposal would save the government money and time and add more merit to the entire system. There's a conservative argument for a similar reform too, so this also has the benefit of bipartisan ground to work on as Trump enters office. I'd support him opening up more H1B visas to compete with the obvious demand for labor. At the same time, we should obviously improve our own education system, as John Macagillian argues under what the Right Is Saying so native born Americans can keep competing in STEM fields. I have faith that we can walk and chew our gum here at the same time. The rub obviously is that I don't know if this is what many Trump supporters want. X might make it seem like MAGA is fundamentally opposed to more H1B holders, and certainly a sizable portion of Trump voters want less immigration of all kinds, period. But a Pew survey from this past September found that 71% of Trump supporters want to admit more high skilled immigrants and 63% want to allow international students who get a college degree here to stay in the country. So Republicans are clearly trying to decide where to draw that line in real time. H1B and other visa programs like it should be the open, monitored door we use to let in immigrants who want to come here and contribute to society economically, culturally and socially. One good way to facilitate that is to improve the existing H1B program and come a little closer to meeting the demand for it. Do I suspect Trump makes that a priority? I think it will depend a lot on who in his circle can win him over on this issue. But the division among Republicans and his supporters could certainly make for some wild lobbying in the next four years. We'll be right back after this quick break.

Isaac Saul (28:17)

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John Mull (28:56)

All right, that is it for my take. Which brings us to your questions answered. This one is from Ben in Portland, Oregon. Ben said the most shocking result of the election for me personally was how poorly ranked choice voting did across the nation. Why do you think this was At a time when both candidates were historically unpopular and the country incredibly divided, why aren't people more interested in increasing their choices and trying to get out of this awful two party system? Is it just too complicated for people okay, to take your low hanging fruit answer to your own question. Yes, I think it is too complicated in some ways, and that is not a trivial thing. When voters read up on the people they're choosing to be our leaders, they shouldn't have to read up on the system they use to elect those leaders. Electoral systems should be simple and intuitive. That just hasn't been the case with ranked choice voting. Alameda, California certified the wrong winner of a school board election because the ranked choice voting system was tabulated incorrectly. RCV elections result in a huge number of spoiled ballots. Delays in elections using RCV can sometimes last weeks. Voters sometimes feel like they have to fill out a spreadsheet to simply make their voices heard. All in all, the complexity of the system creates what critics believe to be irredeemable inequities. We've written in favor of RCV in the past, so it may not come as a surprise when I say that while these issues are real, I do think they are solvable. Remember, RCV is pretty new and we can expect a few issues when we roll out new systems. The biggest reason why RCV ballots are thrown out is that most RCV elections require voters to select their second or third choices. That does not seem necessary to me, and instant runoff systems and an electric that's more familiar with the process can help solve delays. While I'm still optimistic about ranked choice voting, I'd be lying if I said that these issues weren't real. Add in all the outside money that's poured into local elections or ballot initiatives and I can certainly understand why so many people said they'd had enough of ranked choice voting in 2024. But I also think it's important to note RCV is being attacked bipartisans in parts of the country where they think it will harm their electoral odds and that too is having a big impact. All right, that is it for your questions answered. I'm going to send it back to John for the rest of the pod and I'll see you guys tomorrow. Have a good one.

Ari Weitzman (31:23)

Thanks, Isaac. Here's your under the Radar story for today, folks. On Friday, United States Surgeon General Vivek H. Murthy issued an advisory recommending warning labels on alcohol be updated to include cancer risks, citing burgeoning evidence of the link between alcohol consumption and cancer. Murthy said that alcohol contributes to 100,000 cancer cases and 20,000 related deaths each year, and noted that alcohol is the third leading preventable cause of cancer in the US after tobacco and obesity. Any change to health warning labels would require congressional approval. The Washington Post has this story and there's a link in today's episode Description alright, next up is our numbers section. The number of H1B petitions approved for initial employment at Amazon, the most of any company in fiscal year 2024 is 3871, according to the national foundation for American Policy. The number of H1B petitions approved for initial employment at Microsoft in fiscal year 2024 is 1,264. The number of H1B petitions approved for initial employment at Tesla in fiscal year 2024 is 742. The percentage of H1B petitions approved for initial employment in California in fiscal year 2024 is 16.7%, the largest share of any state. The percentage of H1B petitions approved for initial employment in Texas in fiscal year 2024 is 15.3%, the second largest share of any state. The denial rate for H1B petitions for initial employment in fiscal years 2018, 2019 and 2020, respectively, is 24%, 21% and 30 13%. And the denial rate for H1B petitions For initial employment in fiscal years 2021 and 2022, respectively, is 4% and 2%. And last but not least, our have a nice day story. If Mikel Bridges didn't play in the NBA, he would be a second grade teacher. Recently, the Brooklyn Nets player stopped by an elementary school where he dropped into classes throughout the day. First he played basketball in gym class, then he played the xylophone in music class and then took a turn at teaching math throughout the day students came to puzzle him with riddles or ask for a hug or tell him about their basketball skills. CBS News has this story, and there's a link in today's episode. Descript all right, everybody, that's it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, Please go to readtangle.com and sign up for a membership. You can also go to tanglemedia.superkast.com and sign up for a premium podcast membership that'll get you ad free podcasts of the daily podcasts, the Sunday podcast, Friday editions, interviews, bonus content, and so much more. We'll be right back here tomorrow. For Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John Mull signing off. Have a great day, y'all. Peace.

John Mull (34:39)

Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and engineered by John Wall. The script is edited by our managing editor, Ari Weitzman, Will Kdak, Bailey Saul and Sean Brady. The logo for our podcast was designed by Magdalena Bokova, who is also our social media manager. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. If you're looking for more from Tango, Please go to readtangle.com and check out our website.

Isaac Saul (35:19)

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