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- [00:00]
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The INS and outs of caring for your home out indecision, overthinking, second guessing every choice you make in plans and guides that make it easy to get home projects done out beige on beige on beige in knowing what to do, when to do it and who to hire. Start caring for your home with confidence. Download thumbtack today.
- [01:03]
John Mull
From executive producer Isaac.
- [01:05]
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Saul, this is Tangle.
- [01:17]
Isaac Saul
Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, a place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host Isaac Saul, and on today's episode we're going to be talking about the Israel Hamas ceasefire deal that was announced late on Wednesday and we have some updates on that potential deal, I guess we should say now from Thursday morning. Seems to be a little bit of waffling happening now, which is never encouraging, but we're going to break down exactly what's going on and give you some views from across the political spectrum, including some views from Israeli and Palestinian writers. Before we jump into that, though, quick heads up that tomorrow we're going to be taking stock of the moment as President Elect Trump starts his second term. We're going to highlight a series of Trump's promises and broader metrics for the country that we're going to track over the next two to four years. I also wanted to give you a quick reminder that we are off on Monday. We take all bank and federal holidays off as a team. Monday is Martin Luther King Day, so we'll be off for the long weekend and we might send out a newsletter and maybe drop a podcast here with a fresh interview that we're about to print. So you can keep your eyes out for that. But we'll be taking a break from the typical daily newsletter. All right, with that, I'm going to send it over to John for today's main topic and he's going to break down what exactly is going on and then I'll be back with my take.
- [02:55]
John Mull
Thanks, Isaac. And we'll welcome everybody. Here are your quick hits for today. First up, a bit of breaking news. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis announced that he has selected State Attorney General Ashley Moody to replace Senator Marco Rubio if confirmed as Secretary of State. Number two, President Joe Biden delivered his farewell address, speaking about the role of democracy in the United States and warning about the potential consequences of a rising tech industrial complex. Number three, the consumer price index increased 2.9% over the year and 0.4% from the previous month, according to the Labor Department's December inflation report. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2%, the smallest month over month increase since July. Number four, the Food and Drug Administration announced that it will ban the use of synthetic dye red no. 3 over concerns about its links to cancer. At number five, the Supreme Court appeared divided during arguments over a challenge to a Texas law requiring pornography sites to verify the age of their users before providing access. The court is expected to rule on this case this summer. After nearly a year and a half.
- [04:18]
Isaac Saul
Of brutal war in Gaza that widened.
- [04:21]
John Mull
Across the region, a ceasefire and hostage deal was struck today between Israel and Hamas. The deal between the warring sides was.
- [04:28]
Isaac Saul
Mediated by the United States, Egypt and.
- [04:31]
John Mull
Qatar and will start this weekend.
- [04:33]
Isaac Saul
The Biden administration had spent many months trying to force the parties toward a deal, but a final push in coordination with the incoming Trump team helped get to this agreement today.
- [04:45]
John Mull
A senior administration official says that the US didn't know there would be a deal until just minutes before announcing it, after Hamas tried this morning to insert new objections. But tonight, after 15 months of one of the most intense aerial campaigns in history, the deadliest ever war on Israeli soil and the deaths of tens of thousands of Palestinians, there is cautious hope the ceasefire will hold. On Wednesday, negotiators announced a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas that will pause fighting in the Gaza Strip and could potentially end the 15 month war that heightened other conflicts in the region and leveled much of Gaza. The deal is still pending approval by the Israeli government, which delayed a meeting to discuss the agreement on Thursday over alleged concerns that Hamas had not accepted all of the terms. Hamas senior officials said that they remain committed to the deal. The deal is structured in three phases and includes the return of all living and dead Israeli hostages, the total withdrawal of Israel from Gaza, the exchange of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners and eventually a Gaza reconstruction plan. Egypt, Qatar and the United States are guarantors of the peace deal, which was mediated in Doha, Qatar, and included negotiators from Arab countries and the United States, as well as an envoy from President elect Donald Trump's incoming administration, according to Qatar's prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani. Phase one of the deal will begin on Sunday and last roughly six weeks. The first phase consists of a ceasefire, a gradual withdrawal of Israeli troops from central Gaza, the return of displaced Palestinians in northern Gaza, admittance of humanitarian aid into Gaza, Hamas's release of 33 hostages, including two Americans, and Israel's release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. Specifically, Israel agreed to release all Palestinian women and children under 19 detained since October 7, 2023, returning 30 Palestinian detainees to Gaza for every civilian host and 50 Palestinian detainees for every female soldier Hamas releases. Israel will also retain control of the Philadelphia corridor between the Gaza Strip and Egypt, though this provision is reportedly now a point of contention. Negotiations over the second phase will begin on the 16th day of phase one, while discussions are still ongoing. That phase is expected to include the release of all remaining living hostages to Israel, a permanent ceasefire and Israel's total withdrawal from Gaza. The third phase of the deal includes the return of the remains of deceased hostages to Israel and a reconstruction plan for Gaza. There was no other way for this war to end than with a hostage deal, and I am deeply satisfied this day has finally come for the sake of the people of Israel and for the families waiting in agony and for the sake of the innocent people in Gaza who suffered unimaginable devastation because of the war, president Joe Biden said in a statement. This epic ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our historic victory in November, as it signaled to the entire world that my administration would seek peace and negotiate deals to ensure the safety of all Americans and our allies, president Elect Trump said. Posted on Truth Social the Israel Hamas war began on October 7, 2023 when Hamas launched a surprise attack, killing over 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking about 250 hostages, according to Israel. Since then, Israel's ground and air campaign in Gaza has killed over 46,600 people, over half of whom are women, children and older people, according to the Hamas run Gaza Health Ministry. Today we'll get into what the left, right and writers from Israel and Palestine are saying about the deal and then Isaac's take.
- [08:42]
Isaac Saul
We'll be right back after this quick break.
- [08:48]
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- [09:18]
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- [09:51]
John Mull
All right, first up, let's start with what the left is saying. The left is glad the two sides reached a deal and primarily credits Biden. But many say the president's handling of the conflict deserves scrutiny too. Some suggest Trump made the deal happen, given his unique political leverage. In the foreword, Emily Tamkin said, this hostage deal is Biden's victory, but it's also Biden's shame. President Joe Biden's administration has secured a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, and President elect Donald Trump is taking much of the credit. The parallel that immediately jumps to mind is that of President Jimmy Carter, whose work to resolve the Iran hostage crisis only paid dividends after his successor had been sworn into office, Tamkin wrote. Like Biden, Carter spent his last year in office as a one term president consumed with negotiations over trying to get hostages released. But as tempting as it is to see history rhyming, a crisis in the Middle east, inflation, a president finally achieving a deal only on his way out the door, there's an important difference. Namely, Israel is not Iran, where Carter was exclusively negotiating with an enemy country. One of the two countries with whom Biden was negotiating was Israel, an American ally. And although the Biden administration repeatedly placed primary blame on Hamas for scuttling ceasefire efforts. We know that, for example, ceasefire negotiations this summer were reportedly complicated by conditions that Netanyahu added in, tamkin said. It is perhaps too early to make sweeping assessments about what this deal shows us. But one question we can ask now is whether Biden privileged preserving U S Israel friendship even as his own relationship with Netanyahu reportedly deteriorated over reaching a deal. In the Atlantic, Yair Rosenberg wrote, Trump made the Gaza deal happen. The terms largely echo a proposal laid out by Biden himself in May 2024. But the incoming president dragged the parties over the finish line. What changed was not Washington's general orientation toward the conflict. Far from turning up the heat on Israel, Trump telegraphed a further embrace of its positions during his 2024 campaign Rosenberg wrote. Hamas could reasonably surmise that it would not get a better deal during a Trump presidency, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's hard right government likely acceded to the arrangement in order to stay in the new leader's good graces as he assumes office. Put another way, it's not that Trump had a stick with which to beat Israel that Biden didn't have. It's that his presidency holds out the prospect of carrots that Biden would never offer. Rosenberg said it was less the president elect's pressure than his potential promise that brought the Israeli far right onside. With Trump, everything is a transaction and for his would be suitors, not just Israel, but also Hamas sponsors in Qatar, the Gaza ceasefire is a down payment. Alright, that is it for what the left is saying. Which brings us to what the right is saying. Many on the right argue that there are few winners in this conflict, but Trump clearly made the deal happen. Some say Israel faces an uncertain future and an unpredictable American ally under Trump. In Reason, Matthew Petty said nobody won the war in Gaza. President Joe Biden tacitly endorsed a de escalation through escalation strategy, flooded Israel with weapons at US taxpayer expense, and even deployed US troops onto Israeli soil. In November 2024, the Hamas negotiating team was kicked out of Qatar, reportedly because of the Biden administration's pressure. Thousands of Lebanese and Palestinians were killed, Petty wrote. Hamas will rule over a traumatized population living in bombed out wreckage. The dead have not been properly counted. The official death toll of 46,600 may have missed 40% of violent deaths, and that doesn't include deaths from starvation and disease. Iran, which had given Hamas vague assurances of support in a war with Israel, was caught by surprise in October 2023 and turned out to be unprepared for the confrontation that followed. Petty added Iranian losses, however, are not necessarily America's gains. The United States now has more responsibilities in a Middle east that is more chaotic and violent than before. The only winner so far is Trump. Discontent over Biden's war helped swing the election to Trump, and a ceasefire on the eve of inauguration is best of both worlds for the Trump administration. In the New York Times, Bret Stephens suggested the Israeli right may soon be disenchanted with Trump. Thanks largely to Trump, a deal demanded by the Israeli left and reviled by the right is about to come into effect. A year's worth of diplomacy by the Biden administration is finally about to bear fruit on account of its political nemesis, the far right. Parties that were part of Netanyahu's coalition may bolt the government, Stephen said. In the hostage deal, the price for Israel will be in many ways heavy. For every Israeli hostage released by Hamas, Israel will release several fold Palestinian prisoners, many of them with Israeli blood on their hands. This doesn't mean the deal is a bad one for Israel's national interest. A more difficult quandary for the Israeli right is what else Trump may want them to accept. The president elect clearly wants an Israeli Saudi normalization agreement as a capstone to the Abraham Accords he oversaw in 2020. For that to happen, the Saudis will demand a roadmap for a Palestinian state. Trump may also prefer to use Iran's current weakness to negotiate a second nuclear deal. Stephen Thruitt Donald Trump may have the soul of a bully, but he also has the instincts of a deal maker and a yearning for acclaim, including the Nobel Peace Prize he thinks he was denied for the Abraham Accords. Whatever else his next four years in power will bring, he it won't conform to ideological type. Alright, that is it for what the left and the right are saying. Which brings us to what some Israeli and Palestinian writers are saying. Israeli writers celebrate the hostages potential return, but worry that some terms of the deal will embolden Hamas. Palestinian writers express relief at the prospect of an end to the fighting in Gaza, but say it is little consolation after the last 15 months. In the New York Post, Leo Leibowitz wrote praise that the Israeli hostages are coming home, but a deal that keeps Hamas in power is a bad one. The ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas is meant to be a first step and we don't know what happens next or the promises that were made behind the scenes. Most importantly, the idea of dozens of Israelis, including toddlers, returning home after more than a year in purgatory is enough to dull even the most hawkish observers concerns, leibowitz said. Yet it is very hard to observe this deal and see it as anything other than an utter and complete disgrace and an embarrassment for America. First and most devastating, Hamas remains in power, greatly weakened, true, and hampered by increased Israeli military presence in Gaza, but able to claim ultimate victory. Why would Trump, who repeatedly said there would be hell to pay if the hostages weren't released before he takes office, put his weight behind a deal that, with very few and very minor details, is the exact same one peddled unsuccessfully for many months now by the Biden administration, leibowitz wrote. The unspeakable horrors of October 7, 2023 ought to have inspired a new and bold rethinking of American policy in the region, one that no longer tolerates terrorists or their handlers. Instead, we're getting another deal that telegraphs a lack of resolve and rewards the terrorists for their heinous crimes. In Al Jazeera, Afaf al Najjar described a fragile claim amid unending struggle. As a Palestinian receiving this news feels like standing in the eye of the storm, in a moment of ghostly calm, surrounded by chaos and destruction. For me, at least, it marks the end to the bloodshed. But the fact is, the ones we lost will never return, and these scars will never heal. How would a ceasefire ever change that fact? Al Najjar wrote. Ceasefires are often hailed as victories for diplomacy, but to me they are more like pauses in a constant nightmare. This latest agreement is a reminder that for the people of Gaza, survival often hinges on the fragility of politics. Children, mothers and fathers carry the unbearable weight of uncertainty. I find myself asking, is this truly a step toward peace or just another chapter in a story of delayed justice and extended suffering? The ceasefire's terms, reached under immense international pressure, include a halt to airstrikes and rocket fire, along with provisions to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza. These measures are desperately needed, but their necessity is also an accusation of the international community's failure to act sooner to prevent the crises that make such measures critical, al Najjar wrote, temporary peace cannot replace the right to live freely and to dream beyond survival. This prompts another critical question. Will Palestinians ever get their rights to have full control over their political and diplomatic path to justice, or will they always be eliminated from the political stage and portrayed to fit in the victim's role? Alright, let's head over to Isaac for his take.
- [19:30]
Isaac Saul
All right, that is it for what the left and the right are saying, as well as some takes from Israeli and Palestinian writers. Which brings us to my take. So, first and foremost, I'm glad Israel and Hamas seem to have reached a deal. Even if I have to explain a million different caveats, which I'm going to in a moment. This is an important term that everyone can celebrate, at least to some degree. In December of 2023, I wrote a piece titled 10 Thoughts on what is Happening in Israel. And in Thought Number Three, I insisted that the most important story in the war was the death and destruction in Gaza. A couple months later, I wrote the Zionist Case for a Ceasefire. One thrust of that piece was that Israel was going to create a generation of new adversaries by continuing this war. Today, the United States believes Hamas has recruited almost as many new fighters as Israel has killed since since the war began. To sit here now, in January of 2025, having just begun, this ceasefire process is in some ways a relief, an outcome I've been praying for every day for over a year. But it's also disheartening that the deal took so long and that it seems so incomplete. I wish that I could sit here and tell you that this war is over, but I can't. The hard part doesn't start until the first stage is completed. Negotiations for phase two will begin on the 16th day of phase one, and they will require Hamas to coordinate the release of all its remaining living hostages and Israel to commit to a lasting peace and total withdrawal from Gaza. We are a long way out from a more secure future, and this agreement is in many ways just a baby step. Sadly, even that small step is often an auspicious start. This morning we got this update from Israel via the New York Times. Israel's cabinet was expected to vote Thursday, but at midday, Israel had yet to convene ministers to discuss the proposal, citing last minute disputes with Hamas. On Thursday morning, the office of Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, accused Hamas of reneging on parts of the agreement without specifying which ones. A senior Hamas official said the group was committed to the deal, end quote. I could say a lot about the timing of this deal. For starters, I have long believed that the biggest obstacle to ending this war, aside from Hamas holding hostages, was Netanyahu's understanding that ending the war would cause a collapse in his governing coalition. That coalition has depended on far right extremists in the Israeli government, and Netanyahu knew that if he agreed to a deal to end the war that allowed Hamas to retain control, they would likely abandon him and he would lose power. Here's how the Wall Street Journal reported on the changing dynamics. Quote, the agreement isn't much different from the terms that were available months ago, when more Israeli hostages remained alive and before thousands more Palestinians lost their lives. But several factors have pushed the parties closer recently. Netanyahu, meanwhile, has solidified his governing coalition, reducing the leverage of right wing parties who have opposed any deal. I really can't overstate how disgusting this entire spectacle is. It should be one of the great political scandals of our time that an obstacle to ending this horrific spate of violence was a prime minister fearing he would lose his job if the war ended. Exactly what many Israelis have been accusing Netanyahu of for more than a year. Instead, it's a mere footnote in the coverage. This, of course, is not to absolve Hamas from day one. They could have laid their arms down and returned the hostages to end the war, but they opted not to. You can read their actions in two ways. One, they mortgaged the lives and infrastructure of the entire Gaza Strip and their delusional belief that they could could win the war. Or two, they were glad to martyr the Gazan people, uninterested in the pain and suffering they invited onto those they supposedly care for. And then, of course, there's the question of whom to credit in the US My view is that even if this ceasefire holds, it will be one of the great embarrassments of the Biden administration, the cherry on top of a foreign policy record that is teetering on abysmal. Consequently, it will be one of Trump's great accomplishments, beginning before he even took office, a goal he stated during the campaign, the Times of Israel reported that Trump's envoy swayed Netanyahu more in one meeting than Biden did all year. The Washington Post reported that this was the first time there has been real pressure on the Israeli side to accept a deal since the war began, crediting Trump's influence. If this deal holds again, if it will also reflect poorly on me, I wrote repeatedly that the Arab American voters in Michigan and across the US who opposed Harris or outright supported Trump in protest of Biden's handling of the war would be sorely disappointed. Perhaps my view there proves accurate in the long run. I still believe Trump is a staunchly pro Israel president whose interests are diametrically opposed to the Palestinian liberation cause. But if Trump begins this term by helping negotiate an end to this war, I'll be eating some crow and those voters will have both increased their political power and gotten the result they wanted. What comes next is anyone's guess. I've seen reports and heard from a few sources that Trump is going to pursue a Saudi normalization deal, which would likely include recognizing the right of a Palestinian state. Gaza, which has been completely leveled, will have to be rebuilt. Only 16 of the 36 hospitals in the entire strip remain operational, and even they are only partially functioning, with just 1800 beds available in total, according to the UN schools, places of worship and homes across the Strip have been destroyed. There is no economy. Infrastructure like sewage, water and power lines have been wiped out. The scale of the rebuild is incomprehensible. The road ahead is certain to be rocky, with little guarantee that Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad will stop attacking Israel or that Israeli soldiers will leave Gaza and stay out. When the war does end, journalists will enter Gaza in earnest and the truth of the destruction will come into focus. There will be trials, charges for war crimes and ongoing allegations of genocide. A massive power struggle to lead Gaza will unfold as well. Moments to celebrate in this conflict have been rare, so for now I'll take it. But nobody should mistake this first step as an end to the war or as a peace deal. This is just the first step in a long, brutal road ahead toward reconciliation and stability. Foreign we'll be right back after this quick break.
- [26:00]
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- [26:27]
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- [27:06]
Isaac Saul
All right, that is it for my take. Which brings us to your questions. Answer this one is from Joe in Naples, Florida. Joe said, is your answer about the smelt living in brackish water not being an issue? Really your answer to the more important question, which is, has fresh water been diverted to preserve the brackish water of the smelt? So this is a good question from Joe, and it relates to our issue on the Los Angeles wildfires in which we dismiss President Elect Trump's claim that protections for the delta smelt were responsible for Los Angeles's water security issues. By saying the fish didn't live in zones where the city sources its water, this question presents a good point. The issue Trump is highlighting might not be with the estuaries themselves, but with the upstream water that feeds them. In fact, part of the preservation plan for the delta smelt is outflow augmentation, meaning that conservation efforts have indeed called for the state to commit to providing more fresh water to those areas. However, the critique that this hurt Los Angeles's water access falls flat for two reasons. One, the plan the state enacted only pertains to pumping delta zones in the winter and did not result in changes to managing upstream flows. Two, the delta zones implicated by the plan are in the San Francisco Bay area and wouldn't affect Los Angeles. All that said, we still think it was correct for us to say smelt conservation isn't relevant to wildfire responsiveness in Los Angeles, and we do appreciate the probing question for allowing us to more fully get into why. All right, that is it for my take and your reader questions today. Again, we'll be back tomorrow with a members only podcast. We're off on Monday for Martin Luther King Day, but as always, we'll have a Sunday pod coming your way. So keep an eye on the feed and you'll hear from us soon. We'll see you guys then. Have a good one. Peace.
- [28:57]
John Mull
Thanks, Isaac. Here's your under the radar story for today, folks. Ohio Governor Mike DeWine is set to announce his appointment to fill Vice President elect J.D. vance's now vacant Senate seat this week, and one name is beginning to gain public Vivek Ramaswamy. President elect Donald Trump has reportedly been pushing the tech entrepreneur to fill the seat if offered, and Ramaswamy is said to be open to the idea. While Trump previously named Ramaswamy to lead the Department of Government Efficiency alongside Elon Musk, a Senate appointment would likely require him to vacate that role. Whomever DeWine appoints will run to keep their seat in 2026, and the winner of that election will serve the remainder of Vance's term ending in 2029. The Washington Post has this story and there's a link in today's episode Description alright, next up is our numbers section. The estimated cost of damage to critical infrastructure in Gaza during the Israel Hamas war is $18.5 billion, according to an April 2024 report by the World bank and the United Nations. The percentage of structures in Gaza estimated to have sustained damage during the war is 66%, according to a September 2024 United nations assessment. The approximate percentage of Gaza's health facilities that have been damaged or destroyed is 80%. The percentage of Israelis who said that President elect Donald Trump would be a better president than Vice President Kamala Harris for Israel's interests in a November 2024 Israel Democracy Institute poll is 64.5%. The percentage of Israelis who said Harris would be a better president than Trump for Israel's interests is 13%. The percentage of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip who said they expected Hamas would control the strip at the end of the current war in September 2024 is 57%, according to the Palestinian center for Policy and Survey Research. The percentage of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip who said they prefer Hamas to control the strip at the end of the war is 36%. And the percentage of Americans who said the U.S. should play a minor or major role, respectively, in resolving the Israel hamas war is 37% and 24%, according to a September 2024 Pew Research survey. And last but not least, our have a nice day story at 16 years old, Renee Wang was already seeking solutions to important societal issues. She noticed the extensive number of homeless individuals in her community, prompting her to research constraints on the existing shelter system. Inspired by the efficient design of Rubik's Cubes and Legos, Wang created a model for sustainable housing that could be implemented on a massive scale. Currently, she's communicating with nonprofits, San Diego City Council members and others who can help turn her model into a prototype, then hopes to turn her focus towards implementation Good Good Good has this story and there's a link in today's episode description alright, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, Please go to retangle.com and sign up for a membership. You can also go to tangledia.supercast.com to sign up for a premium podcast membership which gets you access to ad free daily podcasts, Friday editions, Sunday editions, interviews, bonus content, and so much more. And with that said, we have our Sunday podcast this week with Ari and Isaac. And because we're off on Monday for Martin Luther King Day, we're also releasing an interview with Sharon McMahon, otherwise known as America's Government Teacher. All the back here on Monday. For Isaac and the rest of the team, this is John Mull signing off. Have a fantastic weekend y'all. Peace.
- [32:48]
Isaac Saul
Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and engineered by John Wall. The script is edited by our Managing editor, Ari Weitzman, Will K Back, Bailey, Saul and Sean Brady. The logo for our podcast was designed by Magdalena Bova, who is also our social media manager. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. If you're looking for more from Tangle, Please go to readtangle.com and check out our website.
- [33:28]
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