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Kandi Burruss
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Ryan Reynolds
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Isaac Saul
Thing Mint Mobile unlimited premium wireless. 30. Better get 30.
John Law
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Isaac Saul
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Ryan Reynolds
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John Law
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Jonathan Fields
Hi, this is Jonathan Fields, host of the Good Life Project where each week I talk to listeners about investing in their future by increasing their own vitality. But when it comes to those financial goals, whether it be saving for a home renovation, growing your child's college fund or travel, life can make it difficult to stay the course. By working with a dedicated Merrill advisor, you get a personalized plan and a clear path forward. Having the bull at your back helps your whole financial life move with you. So when your plans change, Merrill's with you every step of the way. Go to ML.combullish to learn more. Merrill Merrill, a Bank of America company. What would you like the power to do? Investing involves risk. Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner and Smith Incorporated. Registered broker dealer, registered investment advisor. Member sipc.
Isaac Saul
From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon and good evening and welcome to the Tangle podcast, a place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Stahl. And on today's episode, we're going to be talking about the now tanked government funding bill and the potential government shutdown coming this weekend. Yesterday when we were working on this podcast, we were getting ready to tell you a story about a short term continuing resolution, short term spending bill as it is known. And instead we're talking about maybe a government shutdown. So we're going to break down exactly what happened, share some views from the left and the right, and then as always, I'll give you my take. Before we jump into that though, I do want to give you one last heads up that tomorrow I'm doing something personal. I am sharing a little bit about my upbringing and then writing about how it informs my views on class and class politics in America. I think it's going to be an interesting conversation starter on where both parties are and they'll probably shed some light on how I view class issues in our country. So I'm looking forward to that. A reminder that you can get members only Friday Edition podcasts by going to tanglemedia.super cats.com or if you want the written newsletter version of that stuff, you can go to readtangle.com membership and pretty soon we'll be bundling those subscriptions together for you guys to make it a lot easier. So I'm excited about that as well. All right, with that, I'm going to pass it over to John for today's main pot and I'll be back for my take.
John Law
Thanks Isaac and welcome everybody. Here are your quick hits for today. First up, the Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 points to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%, while also indicating that it expects to slow down its rate cuts. Number two, A Georgia appeals court disqualified the office of Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis from prosecuting the 2020 election interference case against President elect Donald Trump, citing a significant appearance of impropriety from Willis relationship with ex special prosecutor Nathan Wade. Number three, the Supreme Court agreed to hear a challenge to a federal law that would require the social media app TikTok to sell its US business by January 19th or be banned in the country. Number four, a person in Louisiana was hospitalized with the first known severe illness caused by bird flu in the US the person had been in contact with sick and dead birds in a backyard flock. Separately, California Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency related to bird flu, which is spreading among dairy herds throughout the state. At number five, thousands of Amazon workers went on strike amid a dispute over a new contract and the company's refusal to recognize the Teamsters labor union as their representation.
Isaac Saul
Not even 24 hours after congressional leaders released a 1500 page bill that would keep the government funded for the next three months, the threat of a shutdown at the end of this week is back. Republicans in Congress are being pressured by the president elect and vice president elect to block the bill on social media. Mr. Trump said Congress should instead pass a streamlined spending bill, and he told Republicans to get smart and tough.
John Law
President Elect Trump is taking credit for killing a government funding deal as lawmakers race desperately to avert a government shutdown, Trump tells our chief Washington correspondent John.
Isaac Saul
Carl there will be a government shutdown.
John Law
Unless Congress eliminates or extends the debt ceiling.
Isaac Saul
Congress has until tomorrow's deadline to keep the government funded.
John Law
On Wednesday, House Republican leadership scrapped a bill to temporarily fund the government after President Elect Donald Trump, Elon Musk and House Republicans came out against the effort. The sudden change of course, comes just days before current government funding runs out on Friday night, and House Speaker Mike Johnson has not indicated whether he will pursue a new bill to avert a shutdown. Please note that this is a developing story. The information in this podcast is up to date as of 11:30am Eastern Time. After weeks of negotiations, House and Senate leaders released the text of a 1,547 page continuing resolution on Tuesday, but faced immediate pushback from House members, particularly on the Republican side. The bill would have funded the government through mid March and contained a host of other measures, including approximately $100 billion for natural disaster relief and an additional $10 billion in economic aid to farmers. Other provisions covered a mix of Republican and Democratic priorities, such as funds to help rebuild Baltimore's Francis Scott key bridge reauthorizations for public health programs, a federal flood insurance program, a national security drone program, changes to regulations for pharmacy benefit managers, business practices and restrictions on US Capital investment in China. Furthermore, the bill would have amended the language of a previous continuing resolution to allow for cost of living adjustments to congressional salaries, setting the stage for the first pay raise for lawmakers since 2009. Lawmakers would also have been able to opt out of coverage under the Affordable Care act marketplace and use the Federal Employees Health Benefits Program. Many Republicans swiftly criticized House leadership for the bill's concessions to Democrats as well as the rushed timeline to avoid a shutdown. Representative Eli Crane, the Republican from Arizona, one of the eight House members who voted to oust former Speaker Kevin McCarthy last year, called the bill a complete monstrosity. Senator Susan Collins, the Republican from Maine, suggested Johnson should have prioritized a full fiscal year spending bill to give the incoming Trump administration a clean slate. Elon Musk was also a vocal opponent, writing on X any member of the House or Senate who votes for this outrageous spending bill deserves to be voted out in two years. Then on Wednesday afternoon, Vice President elect J.D. vance posted a statement on X on behalf of President Elect Trump calling the bill a mistake and suggesting a new bill should include a provision to increase the debt ceiling so it could be done on Biden's watch. Shortly after Vance posted the statement, House Republicans pulled the bill. Johnson's next steps are unclear. He initially had two primary routes to avoid a government shutdown an omnibus bill extending government funding through the remainder of the fiscal year, or a Skinny CR that would have temporarily funded the government and allowed Republicans to negotiate a longer term spending plan when they assume full control of Congress in January. Johnson's bill included elements of both options, funding the government into the first two months of the new congressional term with a slew of other spending included. A Skinny CR may be the Speaker's only remaining choice, though passing anything by Friday will prove challenging under normal circumstances. Johnson could advance the bill through the House Rules Committee, which would allow it to pass to House with a simple majority. However, the timeline is tight and Johnson's strained relationship with some Republican members on the Rules Committee would likely require him to bring up any bill under suspension of the rules requiring a two thirds majority for passage. Whereas many Democrats were poised to support the original bill, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is now suggesting that his members would not support a skinny continuing resolution, calling into question whether a new bill could garner the votes to pass. Today we'll share perspectives from the right and the left on the spending bill and then Isaac's take.
Isaac Saul
We'll be right back after this quick break.
Ryan Reynolds
Hey, I'm Ryan Reynolds. Recently I asked Mint Mobile's legal team if big wireless companies are allowed to raise prices due to inflation. They said yes. And then when I asked if raising prices technically violates those onerous two year contracts, they said, what the are you talking about, you insane Hollywood? So to recap, we're cutting the price of mint unlimited from $30 a month to just $15 a month. Give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch $45 upfront.
John Law
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Kandi Burruss
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John Law
Alright, first up, let's start with what the right is saying. The right is mostly opposed to the original bill, arguing that a clean continuing resolution is a better way to temporarily fund the government. Some criticize Johnson for his approach to this bill and passed funding negotiations. Others suggest Johnson will keep his job as speaker but faces a difficult year ahead. National Review's editors said the year end spending bill deserves to die. This Everyone gets pork spending bill at year's end is the sort of thing Johnson had promised not to do as speaker. He insists the bill is not a Christmas tree, but it's hard to see why that isn't a fair description for a must pass spending bill in the second half of December, ornamented with just about every spare piece of legislation sitting around the Capitol, the editors wrote. Donald Trump and J.D. vance have announced their opposition to the bill, but they threw in their desire to also raise the debt limit. Congress will likely have until June to raise the debt limit. The pressing deadline is to avoid a government shutdown on Friday. A clean CR that keeps the government funded in the short term should be the way to go for the House right now. If Trump and Elon Musk want things to look different in the future, they should prioritize a complete reworking of the congressional budget process by rewriting the laws that govern it, the editor said. The congressional tradition of enormous must pass bills at the end of the calendar year with no time to even read the legislation, let alone debate it, is the kind of thing Republicans should be striving to end. In the Federalist, Shawn Fleetwood wrote, mike Johnson's latest spending scheme proves he's Democrats useful idiot. Following days of backdoor scheming, congressional leaders released the text of their 1,547 page spending measurements to fund the federal government through March 2025. Deceptively marketed as a continuing resolution, or CR, the bill bears all the hallmarks of the bloated omnibus packages Johnson recently promised voters wouldn't happen under his watch, fleetwood said. Representative Chip Roy, the Republican from Texas, perfectly summed up Congress's latest spending scam following a closed door Tuesday meeting among the Republican conference, telling reporters Congress is fundamentally unserious about spending. As long as you have a blank check, you can't shrink government. If you can't shrink government, you can't live free. Johnson's promises are about as meaningful as the gum stuck to the bottom of a shoe. As he's demonstrated time and again, the Louisiana representative will fold like a cheap house of cards on any given policy fight at the first sign of confrontation, leaving Republican voters hanging in the wind, fleetwood wrote. And that right there has been the story of Johnson's entire speakership. His willingness to further the status quo, even if it means empowering Democrats, has made him the left's useful idiot. He's a weak, impotent speaker going along to get along. And as per usual, it's conservative voters who pay the price. In Blaze Media, Christopher Bedford explored what Republicans end of year fights mean for 2025. Johnson promised an open process led by committee chairs that shunned the traditional Christmas omnibus spending package and gave members at least 72 hours to read a bill before a vote. The process has been opaque. Committee chairmen have been excluded. The package taking shape looks a lot like a little omnibus, and given the Friday midnight deadline, it's barely skating in under those 72 hours of reading time. And then the Senate gets to take a stabilizer. It'll likely be a long weekend on Capitol Hill. Conservatives like Representative Chip Roy are mad about the process, the spending, the ethanol subsidies and the handouts to Democrats. More mainline Republicans like Ways and Means Chairman Jason Smith, the Republican from Missouri, are angry that neither they nor their priorities seem to be included in the negotiations, bedford wrote. Johnson can expect to give a pound of flesh for all of his letdowns. Don't expect him to lose his job, though. Neither Trump's nor Johnson's colleagues have the stomach for a drawn out leadership fight with the margins the House still has. Alright, that is it for what the right is saying. Which brings us to what the left is saying. The left is critical of House Republicans handling of the bill, noting that Johnson has consistently appeared inept in these spending fights. Some worry that Elon Musk's involvement in the episode portends his outsized influence in the government. Others say Trump is doing exactly what his campaign promised he would. In msnbc, Hayes Brown called the funding showdown Congress's worst Christmas tradition outside a few grinches. Nobody in Washington wants to see a shutdown happen at Christmas, and yet it's only the threat of ruining the holidays that ever seems to prompt any sort of urgency from lawmakers, brown said. On one hand, Republicans have little reason to pass the kind of massive omnibus bills we've seen in December's past to fully fund the government through the end of the fiscal year. The GOP leadership knows that Republicans will control the White House and the Senate next month. But on the other hand, the core dynamics at play in the Capitol are the same we've seen for the last two years, meaning getting through the holidays is still easier said than done. Annoyance with congressional procrastination is one of the only areas in which I agree with the far right members of the Republican caucus. The constant end of year fiscal crunch is truly ridiculous, given the number of programs that get hung on the Christmas tree at the last minute with little time for debate. Still, I'd normally worry that Congress is punting on most of these major spending decisions until the GOP holds a trifecta would herald a policy disaster. In New York magazine, Ed Kilgore wrote Elon Musk is trying to force a government shutdown. Ever since Donald Trump rewarded Elon Musk for his massive election assistance by putting him in charge of dismantling large swaths of the federal government, no one has been quite sure what to think of it, kilgore said. It was generally assumed we'd find out the answer to this key question once Congress got moving on budget legislation to implement Trump's agenda, and Doge either sniped from the sidelines or tried to bigfoot its way into decisions about spending and revenues. Musk and Ramaswamy are firing off tweets blasting Johnson's handiwork to hardy attaboys from Magaland and calling for a government shutdown that nobody in Washington wants or had anticipated, kilgore wrote. No matter how it turns out, this is a disaster for Johnson, who will soon face a close re election vote for speaker. A sudden humiliation at the hands of an unelected co director of an unfunded and unofficial entity won't make it easier. And it's also bad news for the incoming administration, the Congress and the country. If Elon Musk can work this sort of destructive wonder in a matter of hours, who's going to tell him there are limits to his power? In cnn, Stephen Collinson said, we are witnessing the new Washington of Donald Trump and Elon Musk. The Trump Musk blocking maneuver plunged the Capitol into one of its classic year end crises, pitched Johnson's hopes of keeping his job into extreme doubt, and offered a preview of the chaos that may churn in Trump's second term, Collinson wrote. The sabotaging of Johnson's funding initiative triggered shock and confusion on Capitol Hill. But for many of Trump's supporters and boosters in the conservative media, who are anticipating massive cuts to federal programs, the mayhem is the point. Even if the impasse leads to a damaging government shutdown. That may represent progress for some, since the government itself is viewed with disdain on the populist right. That may represent progress for some, since the government itself is viewed with disdain on the populist right. And by taking aim at the Washington status quo even before he takes the oath of office, Trump is doing exactly what he said he'd do on the campaign trail, Collinson said. But the sudden imbruglio also highlighted one of the key issues facing Trump in his second term. If he wants to pass his tax cuts, push through his immigration overhauls, defend the country, and leave a meaningful legacy, he will have to find some way to govern, even if that draws him into conflict with base voters and mega ideologues who seem happy to burn government to the ground. All right, let's head over to Isaac for his take.
Isaac Saul
All right, that is it for what the left and the right are saying, which brings us to my take. So it's a nice try from Speaker Mike Johnson, but I gotta say, good intentions are not good governance. And instead of writing a take about how shrewd the speaker of the House is, we're starting to wonder whether his time as speaker might be coming to a close. In the end, the bill ended up including a slew of priorities from Republicans and Democrats that were to be expected and a few that were probably never going to play that well. Altogether, the CR had a little something for everyone to complain about, and in retrospect, it's not too surprising that it died. These were the major parts of the 1,547page bill. There was $100 billion in disaster relief, including $31 billion for agricultural relief, $29 billion for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, that's FEMA. And $12 billion for a community development fund overseen by the Department of Housing and Urban development. There was $10 billion in additional aid for farmers. There was an ability for members of Congress to get cost of living increases for their salaries, from $174,000 a year to somewhere around $250,000 a year. There were a host of other line items, like transferring the home stadium of the Washington Commanders. That's my favorite football team, by the way, and I very much want to see that stadium back in D.C. to be back under the purview of Washington D.C. that might not see the light of day again, but you know, we'll see. So those were some of the big components. The disaster relief and farm aid bill are obviously necessary, and I expect both to be in the next bill Johnson brings forward to keep the government open. As I wrote in the wake of Hurricane Helene, when people were accusing the federal government of abandoning North Carolina, the feds were always going to play cleanup by funding disaster relief efforts with massive bills like this one. That's just how it works. We need more funds for disaster relief, and while there's healthy disagreement over how those funds are managed, not many people disagree that the additional support is crucial. The same is true for aid for farmers. Agriculture aid is now a bipartisan effort. Everything else from this CR might make some sense in a vacuum, but probably won't be in the next cr. For example, you can bet that the provision allowing pay raises for lawmakers will be cut. I'm actually kind of sad to see that go. I know it sounds weird to say, but while our representatives make a healthy salary as it is, many people would kill to make six figures in this country. Both the left and the right actually make good arguments that raising their pay will encourage better candidates and help prevent corruption. Still, it makes sense not to sneak that kind of thing into a giant end of year cr. To be honest, I don't see the point in spending too much time dragging Johnson. Plenty of the writers we're quoting today were already eager to do so, and he's in a very difficult position, attempting to hold together a Republican conference that has a sizable wing of members willing to shut down the government overspending that doesn't want to make any concessions before they gain control of both chambers and the White House, and that holds only a slim majority in the House. He has to lead that conference in an environment where any representative can call a snap vote for his removal. The opposition party controls the Senate and the lame duck Democrat is in the White House, all while avoiding the nightmare of a government shutdown over Christmas, no less. When Johnson replaced Representative Kevin McCarthy, the Republican from California, as speaker last year, I was skeptical that he would succeed. Actually, Johnson is about to get run over is word for word how I opened my take. He was inexperienced with both leadership and managing the political spotlight. He had a bad record as a fundraiser, and as I said earlier, he was set up to fail under the rules Republicans put in place when they ousted McCarthy. But I've got to say he's impressed me. He survived attempts to oust him winning over enough Democrats when he's had to, he's kept the government running, he oversaw a successful election cycle for Republicans, and he has even gotten some hard earned legislative wins. And related to today's topic, I believe he genuinely wants to reform the way we fund our government. When he helped avert the last government shutdown, I appreciated his laddered approach to splitting up the usual omnibus funding bill into smaller bills. Our federal budget is supposed to be funded through 12 separate appropriations bills in a timely manner that allows Congress to pass a responsible budget. Instead, Congress's standard operating procedure has been to bicker in back rooms until the last possible second and then cram everything that everybody wants into one enormous appropriations bill without anyone having enough time to fully read or understand it. Basically exactly what they did here. I'm glad Johnson didn't take the route of passing a gargantuan omnibus bill that nobody has time to read, but cramming all of this into a slightly smaller continuing resolution without giving anyone time to fully understand it is really not that much better. The more I consider the middle path he took here, the more I'm left scratching my head at why he didn't at least attempt attempt to pass a skinnier continuing resolution. Even if just for the optics, a small CR could have gotten through the House Rules Committee without opening up the door to spending offsets that ranking members like Representative Chip Roy from Texas were demanding. It could have been more responsible, allowing more time to split up the usual omnibus spending bill into smaller portions in the next term. More importantly, though, it also would have been much more politically advantageous. Why dole out any appropriations now when you have to work with a Democrat controlled Senate and White House? Apparently Republicans were asking the same question. Johnson was having trouble navigating the House Rules Committee, which includes some conservative hardliners, and decided to take his bill straight to the House floor for a vote where it would have required two thirds of the chamber for approval. This guaranteed that he'd have to make concessions to Democrats and balloon the size of the final bill that he brought to the floor. When Republicans saw that bill, a large enough number of them were so angered by it that they immediately killed it. And to be frank, I don't blame them. When Republicans decry massive government spending and giant omnibus bills filled with pork and concessions, I can't help but nod my head in agreement. The obvious issue here is that without a spending bill, we get a shutdown. So what would that mean millions of federal workers will go home for Christmas without paychecks. Air traffic controllers and TSA agents won't be paid. 72% of the department of Homeland Security will be asked to work without paying. National parks will close, snap distributions will face a ticking clock before they stop getting delivered. Essential services will still function and Social Security payments will still be made, but it'll be a total mess. Nobody wants to own that. So you can guess what's about to happen. Republicans are demanding something new. That includes language to raise the debt ceilings now so Trump won't have to be the one responsible for doing it later. There's no time to negotiate a new spending bill before a shutdown, and any deal that includes raising the debt ceiling is not going to pass with a 2/3 majority unless it's chalk full of Democratic priorities. So Republicans will try to move a bill through the Rules Committee that has some shot to pass. I have no idea how Johnson gets that bill out in time. Members of Congress are notorious for finding a way to get home for the holidays, but Senate Democrats aren't going to save Johnson after backing out of their done deal, even though they clearly worked with him in good faith. Up to this point, Trump and Musk seem to have riled up enough conservatives that they have to walk away with some kind of win here, but most of their ass will never clear a Democrat controlled White House and Senate. So we wait. Whatever comes next, it looks like the writing is on the wall for Johnson. Perhaps not right away, but sometime soon. He has infuriated some members of his caucus and there seem to be cracks in his relationship with Trump and the newly drunk on power Musk. I'm not holding out much hope for him to retain his position after Trump takes office. Instead, I'm just hoping the House finds a way to keep the government open without a massive bloated spending bonanza. Then when we have to do this all over again next year, maybe the process can be slightly more sane. We'll be right back after this quick break.
Ryan Reynolds
Hey, I'm Ryan Reynolds. Recently I asked Mint Mobile's legal team if big wireless companies are allowed to raise prices due to inflation. They said yes. And then when I asked if raising prices technically violates those onerous two year contracts, they said, what the are you talking about? You insane Hollywood? So to recap, we're cutting the price of mint unlimited from $30 a month to just $15 a month. Give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch $45 upfront.
John Law
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Kandi Burruss
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Isaac Saul
All right, that is it for my take today. The pod got a little bit long so we're skipping our read question, listener question section. So I'm going to send it back to John for the rest of the pod and I'll see you guys tomorrow if you're a Tangle member. And if not, I'll see you guys back here on Monday.
John Law
Thanks Isaac. Here's your under the Radar story for today folks. A bill that would increase Social Security benefits for some public sector workers appears headed to President Joe Biden's desk after garnering bipartisan support in the Senate. If enacted, the bill, called the Social Security Fairness act, would increase benefit payments to roughly 3 million retired teachers, law enforcement officers, and other workers receiving public pensions whose payouts are currently limited under an existing law. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the bill would increase average monthly payouts by $460 for Social Security beneficiaries and by approximately $1,000 for some spouses of affected workers by 2033. However, some lawmakers have balked at the price tag of the effort. It is projected to cost $196 billion over 10 years and deplete the Social Security Trust Fund six months earlier. The Wall Street Journal has this story and there's a link in today's episode Description alright, next up is our numbers section. The number of federal funding gaps that have lasted at least one full day since 1977 is 20. The number of full or partial federal shutdowns resulting from a funding gap since 1977 is 10. The lengthened days of the longest government shutdown since 1977 is 34. From December 21, 2018, to January 25, 2019, the estimated loss in gross domestic product in $2019 resulting from that shutdown is $3 billion. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the number of government shutdowns that have begun while one party was in control of the House, Senate and White House is three that was Democrats in 1980 and Republicans in 2018. Twice the percentage of U.S. adults who say the government is spending too much is 60%, according to a 2023 AP NORC poll. The percentage of Democrats and Republicans, respectively, who say the government is spending too much is 34% and 88%. The percentage of Americans who say they would rather have a bigger government providing more services than smaller government providing fewer services is 49%, according to a 2023 Pew Research survey. And the percentage of Americans who say reducing the budget deficit should be a top priority for the president and Congress is 57%. And last but not least, our have a nice day story Fashion guru and social media influencer April Lockhart has a limb difference. She was born with only one hand. Lockhart doesn't let it faze her, happily sharing her lifestyle with over 152,000 Instagram followers and often emphasizing confidence and inclusivity in her content. Recently, she partnered with DSW to create a tiny disabled Fashion Girlies pop up event in which girls with limb differences were invited to pick out outfits, be dazzle shoes and enjoy each other's company. You can watch a video from the event with a link in today's episode Description all right everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, go to retangle.com and sign up for a membership. You can also go to tanglemedia.supercast.com and sign up for a Premium Podcast membership which gets you ad free daily podcasts, Friday editions, Sunday editions, interviews, bonus content, and so much more. Tomorrow, as part of our exclusive Friday editions on the Premium Podcast and newsletter, Isaac is going to be sharing a personal bit about his upbringing and his views on class and class politics in America. He'll give his read on how he thinks Democrats and Republicans are navigating class issues and sheds some light on how he views class politics in our country. If you want to get that content in full, you'll need to become a Premium podcast member or a Premium newsletter member. And if you sign up for both, you get a bundle discount on the memberships. Isaac and Ari will be here for the Sunday podcast as well and I will return on Monday. For Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off. Have a fantastic weekend y'all. Peace.
Isaac Saul
Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and engineered by John Wall. The script is edited by our Managing editor, Ari Weitzman, Will K back Bailey Saul and Sean Brady. The logo for our podcast was designed by Magdalena Bokova, who is also our social media manager. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. If you're looking for more from Tangle, Please go to readtangle.com and check out our website.
John Law
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Isaac Saul
Not sure what that means. Well, here's a slightly more specific hint. You can choose four free phones and get four lines for $90 a month from US Cellular.
John Law
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Isaac Saul
Yeah, the good news is that compared to wrapping presents, you're great at getting hints.
John Law
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Isaac Saul
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Release Date: December 19, 2024
Host: Isaac Saul
Podcast: Tangle
Platform: Acast
In this episode of Tangle, host Isaac Saul delves into the escalating tensions surrounding the potential government shutdown slated for the upcoming weekend. With the previously proposed 1,500-page government funding bill falling apart, the discussion navigates through the factors leading to this impasse, featuring insights from both the political right and left.
Isaac Saul opens the episode by outlining the dire situation:
"Not even 24 hours after congressional leaders released a 1,500-page bill that would keep the government funded for the next three months, the threat of a shutdown at the end of this week is back."
— Isaac Saul [05:08]
The initial bill, intended as a short-term continuing resolution, faced immediate pushback from key Republican figures, including President-elect Donald Trump and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance. Their opposition centered on demands for a streamlined spending bill and an increase in the debt ceiling.
House Republican Leadership and Internal Criticisms
John Law provides a detailed breakdown of the Republican stance:
"The right is mostly opposed to the original bill, arguing that a clean continuing resolution is a better way to temporarily fund the government."
— John Law [07:00]
Key criticisms from the conservative side include:
National Review's Stance: The editorial board labeled the bill a "complete monstrosity," criticizing its inclusion of extensive pork-barrel spending and concessions to Democrats.
Representative Chip Roy: Highlighted the necessity of shrinking government, stating, "As long as you have a blank check, you can't shrink government. If you can't shrink government, you can't live free."
— John Law [08:30]
Blaze Media's Analysis: Christopher Bedford emphasized Speaker Mike Johnson's failure to avoid a bloated spending package, suggesting that Johnson has become a "useful idiot" for Democrats by allowing excessive concessions.
Influence of Trump and Elon Musk
The involvement of Trump and Elon Musk has added complexity:
"Elon Musk is trying to force a government shutdown... This is a disaster for Johnson."
— John Law [09:30]
Their active opposition has not only derailed the funding bill but also strained Johnson's relationship with his caucus, casting doubt on his future as Speaker.
Criticism of Republican Handling
From the left, the focus is on the perceived ineptitude of House Republicans:
"The left is critical of House Republicans' handling of the bill, noting that Johnson has consistently appeared inept in these spending fights."
— John Law [10:15]
Key points include:
Hayes Brown of MSNBC: Described the situation as "Congress's worst Christmas tradition," criticizing the last-minute rush and lack of urgency from lawmakers to prevent a shutdown.
Ed Kilgore of New York Magazine: Accused Elon Musk of actively sabotaging the funding process, portraying his actions as detrimental to both Speaker Johnson and the incoming administration.
Implications for Governance
Stephen Collinson of CNN highlighted the broader implications:
"We are witnessing the new Washington of Donald Trump and Elon Musk... If Elon Musk can work this sort of destructive wonder in a matter of hours, who's going to tell him there are limits to his power?"
— John Law [11:00]
This perspective underscores fears about the increasing influence of non-traditional political actors and the potential chaos in governance that may follow.
Isaac Saul offers a nuanced analysis of the unfolding crisis:
"Good intentions are not good governance. Instead of writing a take about how shrewd the speaker of the House is, we're starting to wonder whether his time as speaker might be coming to a close."
— Isaac Saul [20:04]
Key Insights:
Critique of the Continuing Resolution (CR): Saul acknowledges that while the CR included essential components like disaster relief and farm aid, its broad scope with concessions made it vulnerable to criticism from all sides.
Speaker Mike Johnson's Leadership: Despite initial skepticism, Saul notes Johnson's resilience but questions his strategic decisions, especially the failure to pass a skinnier CR that might have avoided current backlash.
Consequences of a Shutdown: Saul warns of the imminent repercussions:
"Millions of federal workers will go home for Christmas without paychecks. Air traffic controllers and TSA agents won't be paid... it's a total mess."
— Isaac Saul [22:30]
Looking Forward:
Saul predicts that without a viable funding bill, a government shutdown is unavoidable. He emphasizes the need for Speaker Johnson to navigate internal Republican conflicts and external pressures from influential figures like Trump and Musk to find a path forward.
Before concluding, John Law touches on a lesser-publicized but significant development:
"A bill that would increase Social Security benefits for some public sector workers appears headed to President Joe Biden's desk after garnering bipartisan support in the Senate."
— John Law [28:23]
Details:
The episode encapsulates a critical juncture in U.S. politics, highlighting the fractious dynamics within the Republican Party, the disruptive influence of high-profile figures like Trump and Musk, and the broader implications of a potential government shutdown. Isaac Saul's insightful commentary provides listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the stakes involved and the challenges facing leadership in averting this fiscal crisis.
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