Tangle Podcast Episode Summary: The Pennsylvania Senate Race

Host: Isaac Saul
Episode Title: The Pennsylvania Senate Race
Release Date: November 20, 2024

Introduction

In this compelling episode of Tangle, host Isaac Saul delves deep into the ongoing Pennsylvania Senate race, featuring incumbent Senator Bob Casey (Democrat) and challenger Dave McCormick (Republican). The episode provides a thorough analysis of the election dynamics, recount processes, legal battles, and the broader implications for American politics. Saul offers insights from across the political spectrum, enriched with expert opinions and notable quotes from various commentators.

Overview of the Pennsylvania Senate Race

The Pennsylvania Senate race remains one of the most closely watched contests in the 2024 elections. As of the latest reports, Dave McCormick holds a slim lead over Bob Casey, prompting an automatic recount under Pennsylvania law. With a current lead of approximately 24,000 votes, McCormick's position appears strong, yet the race is far from settled.

Key Points:

• Current Vote Standings: McCormick leads Casey by about 17,000 votes with 99.8% of the vote counted.
• Recount Trigger: Pennsylvania law mandates a recount if the margin is 0.5% or less.
• Legal Challenges: Casey's campaign is actively pursuing legal avenues to challenge the election results, focusing on the validity of certain ballots.

Key Developments and Controversies

1. Pennsylvania Supreme Court Ruling (00:48)

   • The Supreme Court ruled 4-3 against counting undated or miss-dated mail ballots, limiting Casey's ability to contest the election outcome.
   • Court's Stance: "Undated absentee or mail ballots are presumptively invalid," as noted by National Review contributor Jeffrey Blahar.

2. County Officials' Defiance (06:48)

   • Several counties, including Bucks, Philadelphia, Center, and Montgomery, defied the Supreme Court's ruling by attempting to count ballots with minor errors.
   • Bucks County Chair Diane Ellis Marsaglia stated, "If I violate this law, it's because I want a court to pay attention."

3. Public and Political Reactions

   • Right-Leaning Perspectives: Critics argue that Casey's efforts verge on seeking illegitimate votes to overturn the election.
   • Left-Leaning Perspectives: Supporters claim the actions aim to prevent voter disenfranchisement due to minor clerical errors.

Perspectives from Across the Political Spectrum

From the Right

• Jeffrey Blahar (National Review) [05:04]:

  "Casey needs to go away. ... It is a futile attempt to fight his loss to Dave McCormick."

• Jessica First Johnson (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette) [10:39]:

  "Bob Casey wants to win with illegal votes... it's changing the name of the winner after the stadium lights are turned off."

• Scott McKay (American Spectator) [10:39]:

  "The attempted steal in Pennsylvania is something of a crucible for Josh Shapiro... it sends a message that Democrats are corrupt."

Key Arguments:

• Casey's reliance on counting disputed ballots undermines election integrity.
• Democrats are hypocritically attempting to reverse legitimate election outcomes while criticizing Republicans for similar tactics.

From the Left

• The Washington Post Editorial Board [10:39]:

  "Elected Democratic officials... voted this week to defy these and other court decisions."

• Senator Bob Casey (Penn Live) [10:39]:

  "Pennsylvanians deserve to have their voices heard... there are thousands of eligible voters who made small errors."

• Larry Platt (Philadelphia Citizen) [10:39]:

  "Democrats should be looking inward... have we officially entered a new era of political zero-sum warfare?"

Key Arguments:

• Defiance of court rulings by Democratic county officials threatens democratic norms.
• Casey's efforts aim to ensure every legitimate vote is counted, combating disenfranchisement.

Host's Take: Isaac Saul's Analysis [18:58]

Isaac Saul provides a balanced perspective, affirming that the defiance of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court by county officials is unacceptable. He emphasizes the following points:

1. Condemnation of County Officials:

   • "Pennsylvania county election officials were wrong to openly disregard the state Supreme Court's ruling."

2. Legitimacy of Legal Challenges:

   • While Casey has the right to pursue recounts and legal appeals, the overwhelming lead and court rulings make a reversal unlikely.

3. Hypocrisy and Double Standards:

   • Republicans consistently challenge election results when trailing, yet Democrats are now accused of similar tactics.
   • Mark Elias (Democratic Elections Lawyer): Represents Casey but exemplifies the Democratic dilemma.

4. Historical Context:

   • Recounts rarely change election outcomes. In 36 statewide recounts between 2000-2023, only 3 resulted in different winners.
   • Current Margin: McCormick's lead is significantly larger than typical margin shifts in past recounts.

5. Call for Legal Clarity:

   • Urges the Pennsylvania Supreme Court to re-examine mail-in ballot rules to prevent future disputes.

6. Personal Stance:

   • Supports the inclusion of undated ballots, citing fairness and accessibility issues.

Notable Quotes:

• Isaac Saul [18:58]:

  "The state Supreme Court's ruling could not have been more clear. These ballots cannot and will not be counted."

• Patricia Poprick (Bucks County Republican Committee Chair) [18:58]:

  "As long as a voter gets their ballot back in time, a date error on their ballot shouldn't invalidate their vote."

Community and Upcoming Content

• Member-Only Interview with David O'Brien:
  • Topic: Super PAC spending in the 2024 election and efforts to limit money's influence in politics.
  • Availability: Available to members via the newsletter and premium podcast subscription.

Numbers and Statistics

• McCormick's Lead in In-Person Votes: 621,637
• Casey's Lead in Mail Ballots: 592,788
• Casey's Lead in Provisional Ballots: 11,060
• Impact of Counting Undated Mail Ballots:
  • Casey: +326
  • McCormick: +288
• Statewide Recount Statistics (2000-2023):
  • Total Recounts: 36 out of 6,929 general elections
  • Changed Outcomes: 3
  • Average Margin Shift: 551 votes
• Most Recent Outcome Reversal: 2008 (Al Franken vs. Norm Coleman)

Listener Questions Answered

Question from Alex, Indianapolis, Indiana:

"Do we know if there is any validity to the idea that Harris only won states because of the laws surrounding voter ID?"

Isaac's Response:

• Debunking the Claim:
  • Harris won in states like New Hampshire and Rhode Island, both of which require photo IDs.
  • Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, and Virginia also require some form of ID and were carried by Harris.
• Causation vs. Correlation:
  • Harris's victories align with states that have protections for voting rights, not solely voter ID laws.
  • Voter behavior is influenced by multiple factors including party alignment on social issues.
• Voter Fraud:
  • No substantial evidence supports that lack of voter ID laws contributed to fraud that affected the election outcome.
  • Isaac:

    "There isn't any good reason to think a lack of voter ID laws directly contributed to fraud that allowed Harris to win the state she won in 2024."

Conclusion

The Pennsylvania Senate race serves as a microcosm of the broader national tensions surrounding election integrity, legal interpretations, and partisan strategies. Isaac Saul underscores the importance of upholding judicial rulings and maintaining confidence in electoral processes. While Dave McCormick's lead appears insurmountable, the episode emphasizes the necessity for clear legal frameworks to handle mail-in and provisional ballots, ensuring fairness and preventing future disputes.

Final Thoughts by Isaac Saul:

"Our system has held strong. Even in an instance of a glaring abuse of power, our system has held strong."

Additional Content

• Under the Radar Story:

  • Topic: The Trump administration's plans to prioritize the adoption of self-driving vehicles.
  • Details: Focus on regulatory changes and industry impacts, featuring insights into Tesla's and Waymo's roles.

• Have a Nice Day Story:

  • Heartwarming Reunion:
    • Vermar Hunter discovers his birth mother Lenore Lindsay through genetic testing, leading to a joyous reunion and collaborative efforts in her bakery.

Support and Membership

Listeners are encouraged to support Tangle by subscribing to the newsletter and premium podcast memberships for exclusive content, ad-free listening, and more.

End of Summary