Tangle Podcast: "The Protests in Iran"

Host: Isaac Saul (with John Law and Will Kbach)
Date: January 7, 2026

Overview

This episode of Tangle focuses on the escalating protests in Iran that began in late December 2025. It provides context on the economic, political, and international dimensions of the unrest, explores commentary from across the American political spectrum as well as from Iranian voices, and assesses the likelihood of U.S. involvement—particularly under President Trump's administration. Senior Editor Will Kbach offers a considered analysis, while Isaac Saul provides a dissenting view on U.S. intervention prospects.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Background and Current State of Protests

[05:53 – 09:04]

• Scale and Triggers:
  The largest protests since 2022 erupted over rising costs and worsening economic conditions, beginning in Tehran's Grand Bazaar and quickly spreading nationwide.
• Nature of Demonstrations:
  Protesters have displayed remarkable resolve, standing in front of police water cannons and chanting anti-regime slogans like “death to the dictator.” Statues have been set on fire in public squares.
• Government Response:
  Authorities have employed violent suppression—including live ammunition—and enacted widespread Internet restrictions. Official figures cite at least 34 protesters killed, 60+ injured, and over 2,000 arrested in just 10 days.
• Economic Crisis:
  The Iranian rial hit an all-time low (1.4 million per USD). Food and medicine are scarce; essentials have become luxury items.
• International Reaction:
  President Trump has openly supported the protesters and issued a potent warning:

  “We are locked and loaded and ready to go.” – President Trump (summarized at [06:47])

2. Historical and Political Context

[06:17 – 09:04]

• Iran’s System:
  An Islamic republic governed by a blend of elected offices and clerical oversight, led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
• Recent Tensions:
  • U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal led to severe sanctions, deepening Iran's economic crisis.
  • The U.S. bombed Iranian nuclear facilities following a brief Iran-Israel war in June 2025.
  • Economic decline accelerated: half the rial’s value lost in 2025, December inflation ~42%, poverty estimated at 50%.
• Stated Grievances:
  Protesters’ concerns reach beyond economics to deep-seated dissatisfaction with government repression and perceived illegitimacy.

3. Perspectives from the Political Spectrum

A. The Right

[12:00 – 15:00]

• General View:
  Strongly support protesters but are skeptical about regime change. Support Trump’s firm stance; see parallels to past U.S. foreign policy missteps.
• Key Points:
  • National Review editors compare the regime’s brittleness to earlier revolutions (e.g., Arab Spring).
  • The government’s response alternates between minor concessions and brutal repression.
  • Citing the Obama administration’s hesitation after Iran’s 2009 protests, they stress Trump may avoid similar “mistakes.”
• On Trump’s Warning:
  • Praised for creating ambiguity and deterrence (“locked and loaded”), yet,
  • There’s a risk: “If Washington issues this warning and does nothing... it will teach every dictatorship watching that Trump’s threats mean nothing.”
    — Ani Chikwadze, Washington Examiner ([14:05])

B. The Left

[15:01 – 18:40]

• General View:
  Link current turmoil to the legacy of Trump’s first term—specifically pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal in 2018.
• Key Points:
  • Ali Velshi (Ms. Now):
    • Departure from the 2015 deal led to economic isolation and the collapse of Iran’s middle class.
    • U.S. and Israeli strikes have weakened Iran’s regional influence but worsened domestic suffering.
    • “US sanctions are indeed causing tremendous ongoing economic suffering in Iran that appears to be coming to a head right now as these protests have erupted…” ([16:55])
  • Steve Bennon (Ms. Now):
    • Critiques Trump’s sudden interest in protesters’ rights as inconsistent with his broader record supporting autocrats.
    • “Is he now suddenly concerned about violence toward protesters in Iran? Or is the incumbent American president looking for an excuse to push fresh threats toward a foe in the Middle East?” ([18:20])

C. Iranian Writers

[18:41 – 20:02]

• Reza Pahlavi (Washington Post):
  • Sees Iran “on the verge of a profound transformation”—protests are a cry for freedom and democratic transition.
  • Welcomes Trump’s support, seeing it as empowering and essential for international solidarity:

    “Supporting the Iranian people is not an act of charity or interference. It is an investment in global stability.”
    ([19:00])

• Mohammad Reza Farzanigan (Middle East’s Eye):
  • Maintains that economic despair—not a desire for regime change—is driving protests.
  • Attributes the hollowing out of Iran’s middle class to U.S. sanctions, not solely domestic failings:

    “The Iranians currently in the streets are not asking for their country to be dismantled. They are asking for the restoration of their dignity for economic relief…” ([19:35])

4. Will Kbach's Analysis & Take

[20:03 – 27:32]

• Similarities with Past Protests:
  • Each movement since 2009 (Green Movement, 2017-18 protests, 2022’s "Women, Life, Freedom") began with a focused trigger but escalated to challenge the system.
  • All faced violent suppression and eventually lost momentum.
• What’s Different Now?
  • The government has not just cracked down, but publicly admitted failure and replaced officials—unprecedented signals of weakness.
  • “Would the government have done this if it had control of the situation? I don’t think so.” ([23:46])
• Role of U.S. Actions:
  • Recent U.S. bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites and the forcible removal of Venezuela’s Maduro show a new willingness to act, affecting regime confidence.
  • U.S. threats seem more credible after these actions, but Trump’s pattern favors “short, decisive” operations over long-term entanglements.
• Prediction:
  • Absent significant U.S. intervention, Iran’s regime will likely survive in the short term, using repression to maintain order, even as its legitimacy erodes.
  • “Managing unrest is not the same as resolving the conditions that produced it... I doubt that the regime can reassert itself... But I also doubt it will fall in a matter of days or weeks.” ([25:36])
  • Holds out faint hope for a slow grind to reform and potential democratization, but calls it “utopian thinking.”

5. Isaac Saul’s Dissent

[27:32 – 28:56]

• Argues Trump administration is more likely to intervene in Iran than Will suggests:

  “After the tactical success and media frenzy that surrounded the capture of Maduro and the bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities, I think Trump is emboldened. He’s confident, he is eager for the Iranian regime to test him.”
  ([27:50])

• Predicts the administration may seek confrontation through airstrikes or covert involvement.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Iran is not Venezuela.” — National Review Editors ([12:55])
• “For almost 47 years, the Islamic Republic has fueled regional conflict, pursued nuclear blackmail and wrought global chaos. A free and democratic Iran will be a force for stability in the Middle East, not a source of endless crisis.”
  — Reza Pahlavi ([19:12])
• “The tragedy... is that it has destroyed the very segment of society, the middle class, most capable of pushing for a stable, reformist and less confrontational future.”
  — Mohammad Reza Farzanigan ([19:50])
• “Public discontent can affect genuine change, and military might means more than international norms. In that global context, a few key aspects of the current protests differ from the past...”
  — Will Kbach ([22:10])
• “I think the administration is more likely to keep its focus on Venezuela and let the Iranian protests play out on their own.”
  — Will Kbach ([24:36])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Episode Intro and Context: [02:03 – 04:25]
• News Recap (Quick Hits): [04:25 – 05:53]
• Protest Overview & Analysis: [05:53 – 09:04]
• Spectrum Perspectives – The Right: [12:00 – 15:00]
• Spectrum Perspectives – The Left: [15:01 – 18:40]
• Spectrum Perspectives – Iranian Writers: [18:41 – 20:02]
• Will Kbach’s Full Take: [20:03 – 27:32]
• Isaac Saul’s Dissent: [27:32 – 28:56]

Tone and Language

Throughout, the dialogue is balanced, clear, and non-partisan, in keeping with Tangle’s mission. Quotations from contributors represent a mixture of sober political analysis and guarded optimism, with skepticism about both the Iranian government’s stability and U.S. foreign policy consistency.

Conclusion

Tangle’s episode presents a nuanced exploration of the Iranian protests, highlighting the complex interplay between internal economic hardship, regime repression, and international pressures. While many hope for change, history and current dynamics leave analysts cautious, with the prospect of U.S. intervention lingering as a serious but uncertain variable.