John Law (5:09)

Thanks Isaac and welcome everybody. Here are your quick hits for today. First up, President Donald Trump's new tariffs on most US Trading partners went into effect at midnight. Separately, Trump announced a 25% tariff on India after determining that the country was directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil. The New levies bring the total of US tariffs on India to 50%. Separately, President Trump said he would impose approximately 100% tariffs on semiconductor chips, with exemptions for technology companies that have made assurances that they plan to manufacture their products domestically. Number two, an army sergeant shot five soldiers at Fort Stewart in Georgia. The injured soldiers are all expected to survive and the shooter is in custody. Number three, President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will reportedly meet in the coming days and their first in person meeting of Trump's second term to discuss the war in Ukraine. Number four, a group of Texas lawmakers who left the state to attempt to stall a GOP led redistricting bill were temporarily evacuated from their hotel outside of Chicago, Illinois because of a bomb threat. And number five, President Trump ordered the Commerce Department to begin work on a new census that does not tally people in the US Illegally. Now, Donald Trump expressed surprise when Britain made this announcement, said that the British prime minister didn't actually talk to him about the recognition of Palestine.

Isaac Saul (6:44)

More countries now are coming to that.

John Law (6:47)

Conclusion that they need to recognize Palestine. Is the US out of step with this?

Isaac Saul (6:53)

Diplomatically? This is massive. And what really struck me was the specificity of Starmer's demands. You know, the type of specificity we haven't heard before. And if the whole world, including the Gulf allies that Trump depends on so much in terms of his thinking, all turn to Trump with that sort of specific outlined and common cause, it will.

John Law (7:17)

Have an effect on Trump. On July 25, French President Emmanuel Macron said France will formally recognize a Palestinian state at the United Nations General assembly in September. The Next week, on July 30, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said Britain will also recognize a Palestinian state unless the Israeli government takes substantive steps to end the appalling situation in Gaza, agree to a ceasefire and commit to a long term sustainable peace, reviving the prospect of a two state solution. Finally, on July 31, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced Canada will recognize Palestinian statehood, citing humanitarian concerns in Gaza. Meanwhile, the United nations and other international organizations have accused Israel of deliberately starving Gazan civilians. Recognition of another entity as a state is a political and diplomatic position that can allow countries to enter into treaties, establish embassies and agree to trade talks. Recognition of Palestinian statehood in particular also functions as a rebuke of Israel. And if enough states recognize Palestine's statehood, it could formally join international organizations like the UN. Since 2012, Palestine has been a non permanent observer state of the un, allowing it to participate in the body's proceedings, but without voting power. 147 of 193 UN member states have already recognized a Palestinian state, including European Union members Spain and Ireland. Palestine is generally recognized as being divided into two separate enclaves, Gaza, which is governed by Hamas, and the west bank, which is governed by the Palestinian Authority. The Though much of the area is under Israeli occupation, France, Britain and Canada's announcements all called on Hamas to release its hostages and agree to a ceasefire. On Tuesday, the Washington Post reported that 13 House Democrats had sent a letter to President Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio asking the Trump administration to recognize a Palestinian state, arguing that doing so would both fulfill the legitimate national rights of Palestinians and ensure the state of Israel's survival. Representative Ro Khanna, the Democrat from California, spearheaded the effort and told Axios that the response from lawmakers has been overwhelming. The Trump administration is critical of the movement to support Palestinian statehood. On July 31, White House press Secretary Caroline Levitt said the president expressed his displeasure and his disagreement with the leaders of France, the United Kingdom and Canada. He feels as though he's rewarding Hamas at a time when Hamas is the true impediment to a ceasefire and to the release of all the hostages. Secretary of State Rubio called the recognitions irrelevant, and the State Department imposed new sanctions on Palestinian Authority officials and members of the Palestine Liberation Organization. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also rebuked the announcements, saying that Prime Minister Starmer in particular rewards Hamas's monstrous terrorism and punishes its victims. Simultaneously, the Israeli Security Cabinet is reportedly preparing to authorize a new military operation of to occupy the entire Gaza Strip. Today we'll share perspectives from the right, left and right abroad on the growing international recognition of Palestinian statehood. And then Isaac's tape.

Isaac Saul (10:40)

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John Law (12:54)

All right, first up, let's start with what the right is saying. The right is critical of the country's declarations, and many say they only serve to embolden Hamas. Others argue world leaders should focus their efforts on the hostages release. The Wall Street Journal editorial board said the recognitions make a Palestinian state less likely, reveling in French, UK and Canadian plans to recognize a state of Palestine. Hamas has hardened its position and rejected new ceasefire talks. But even if recognizing a Palestinian state weren't a gift to Hamas right now, it would still be a policy error, the board wrote. The Soviet bloc and its allies recognized Palestine in 1988 but but the west has long insisted that recognition follow the creation of a Palestinian state, not precede it. And to create such a state, the Palestinians would have to agree to end the Israeli Palestinian conflict. Otherwise a state would merely be a base from which to expand the fighting. The UK makes no demands on the Palestinian Authority, whose state it looks to recognize. France and Canada satisfy themselves with PA commitments of reform they know it has no ability or intent to keep. Real actions aren't forthcoming, so much of the world has stopped asking, the board said. The good news is that the decisions that matter aren't made in Paris, London or Ottawa. International recognition can serve as a launchpad for legal warfare against Israel. But by showing Hamas that war works when fought cynically enough, and by showing the PA that it need never compromise, it pushes Palestinian statehood further away. In the Washington Examiner, Hugh Hewitt wrote, a Palestinian state requires the end of Hamas. The Israelis will never allow a Hamas dominated state to be established on their borders. Never. Any attempt to impose one by the Security Council of the United nations would be vetoed by the United States, Hewitt said. The lame duck president of France, Emmanuel Macron, can strut and declare and could even stand alongside others such as Keir Starmer, whose Labour government was elected with 34% of the overall vote, and the UN absurdist general secretary Antonio Guterres and and demand such a Hamasistan. But it will not happen. The Gulf states would like to see a modernized and rebuilt Gaza, not one run by Hamas. They would like a two state solution as well, but behind closed doors they are realists. They are for the most part done with extremist Islamist ideologies and would prefer to return to the path laid out in the Abraham Accords, Hewitt wrote. That path requires the end of Hamas. Every single statement by useful idiots such as Macron that impedes the release of the hostages and the surrender of Hamas and their exile to Iran or Turkey puts peace another day away. Alright, that is it for what the right is saying. Which brings us to what the left is saying. The left is mixed on the recognitions, with some suggesting they are empty gestures. Others say they are important steps toward peace and an eventual two state solution. In the New York Times, Zeneda Miller wrote, the promise of Palestinian statehood is ringing hollow. A new wave of recognition would represent a clear affirmation of Palestinian political independence and territorial integrity. No small matter after decades of diplomatic ambiguity and Israel's long standing violation of the Palestinians right to self determination, Miller said. Yet this recognition is far too little and much too late. It is also a radically inadequate response to starvation, let alone genocide, as many human rights groups, genocide and Holocaust study scholars and UN special rapporteurs have categorized Israel's actions in Gaza after almost two years of war there. Moreover, it has been shamefully tethered to conditions. Meanwhile, despite widespread consensus that Israel has committed international human rights violations and crimes, Israel faces few restrictions or conditions on on the billions of dollars it receives in military aid, miller wrote. The declaration promises irreversible steps toward statehood, but for those who are starving today, the only irreversible step is death. Until statehood recognition brings action, arms embargoes, sanctions enforcement and international law, it will remain a largely empty promise that serves primarily to distract from Western complicity in Gaza's destruction. In msnbc, Hussein Ibish argued recognition of Palestine is not a gift to Hamas. If there were a viable two state solution negotiation process in place, or even conceivable under current circumstances, perhaps then there would be compelling arguments against the French move. It could force both sides into defensive crouches or provoke Palestinians to overplay their hands, ibish said, but no negotiating process exists. Instead, Israel is trying to position itself to annex much or all of the west bank, thereby cutting off the only pathway to a genuine peace. Religious extremist settlers regularly rampage through villages, further squeezing the West Bank Palestinians into smaller and smaller parcels of land. The French decision brings the international community back to the fundamental choice that faces the world. Israelis and Palestinians live in virtually equal numbers in a de facto Israeli state that simultaneously denies both citizenship and independence to the overwhelming number of Palestinians, ibish wrote. International recognition of a Palestinian state in the occupied territories is a fraught but imperative step to preserve the only pathway for these two long suffering peoples to live together in neighboring states in peace, security and dignity. France has shown the way alright. That is it for what the right and the left are saying. Which brings us to what writers abroad are saying. Some writers abroad question the logic of recognizing Palestinian statehood based on Israel's actions. Others say the declarations are a symbolic step but insufficient to address the suffering in Gaza. In the Washington Post, Tom Tugenhat, a conservative member of the British Parliament and former security minister, called Britain's decision reckless. France simply declared its position. Britain, however, made recognition contingent on Israeli behavior, a conditional approach that reveals the fundamental incoherence of Prime Minister Keir Starmer's foreign policy. Tugenhat wrote, palestinians either have an inalienable right to statehood or they don't. The legal conditions are set out clearly in the Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States of 1933. Four criteria are a permanent population, defined territory, a government and the capacity to enter into relations with other states. Recognition acknowledges these facts. It doesn't create them based on third party behavior. Starmer's government now argues Palestinians rights depend entirely on another state and Israel, and on an outcome that cannot be achieved without the acquiescence of a ruthless terrorist group, Hamas. Tugenhat said this logic would be absurd if applied elsewhere. Could Westminster decide that France or Ireland was no longer a state if Paris or Dublin misbehaved, or if the actions of Germany or Italy were deemed unacceptable? Of course not. Even after the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan, there was no question about the country's statehood. The change in regime didn't invalidate the existence of the state. In Newsweek, Ali Ibrahimi said recognizing a Palestinian state is important, but no substitute for ending the atrocities in Gaza. In July, 63 people died from Israel's enforced starvation alongside more than 1,000 men, women and children have been shot dead by Israeli forces while seeking food at the few remaining aid sites, Brahimi wrote. After 21 months of medieval destruction in Gaza, and after the worst case scenario of famine has already been realized, the international community is finally groping for a response. For G7 states like Britain and France, the central line of effort is promising to officially recognize a Palestinian state at the UN in September. Acknowledging Palestinian self determination is an overdue and essential symbolic step. However, it is unclear how the lightning rod of Palestinian statehood will end the daily massacres in Gaza or or reverse the ongoing famine, particularly as Israel remains both defiant and cosseted by the us, Brahimi said. Alone, the recognition of Palestinian sovereignty will surely represent cold comfort to the mothers rendered bystanders as their infants waste from hunger, to the famished civilians who will be shot by Israeli snipers while queuing for food, or to the children who will be murdered, maimed or orphaned by Israeli bombs. All right, let's head over to Isaac for his take.

Isaac Saul (21:42)

All right, that is it for the left and the right and some writers abroad are saying. Which brings us to my take. For a long time I considered myself a Zionist who supported a two state solution. I suppose that description might feel a little disingenuous now, because I've written about my feelings on Zionism and how I might be leaving the Zionist movement. But I genuinely cannot imagine a scenario for peace that doesn't end with Palestinian statehood. I've held out on writing a lengthy piece about possible solutions to the Israel Palestine crisis, and I'm not going to do that Today I've held out in large part because doing so feels naive, Pollyannish and absurd, given what is happening in Gaza right now. Similarly, discussing Palestinian statehood right now feels just as naive, Pollyannish and absurd. As I write these words, Israel's Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu is rallying support around a full Gaza occupation. The predictable conclusion to this protracted war. There is no two state solution coming, not anytime soon at least, and certainly not because of a few sternly worded press releases from NATO countries. These declarations are in some ways the nadir of the Palestinian cause. Many Palestinians have been angling for this kind of recognition or support from the west for years. Yet it only comes when their territory is in nearly complete ruin. They are scattered across the Gaza Strip under constant attack, and they are oppressively ruled by a terrorist organization. The statements of support are not meant to trigger a Palestinian state next week. They're meant to signal that we don't support this war and we think one day Palestinians should have true self determination. This, on its own terms is admirable. But still, to make this call now constitutes little more than an empty gesture. Critics of this sudden push for statehood make two obvious and compelling points. First, exactly what is being recognized as a state? The borders for Gaza and the west bank are not clearly defined, and no existing governing body can be entrusted with such a state, or for that matter, has a rightful claim to govern both enclaves. Second, what is the rationale for awarding statehood now? After all the events of the last two years, Hamas and Israel have been incapable of landing a peace deal. Hamas is releasing videos of starving hostages in an obvious effort to maximize its leverage. It is probably having the opposite effect. Hamas continues to have a stranglehold on the population in Gaza and to make unreasonable demands for a ceasefire, like Israel abdicating control of Jerusalem. At the same time, I can see the arguments for pursuing statehood are making it part of the conversation right now as well. Many Israelis and many Zionists make a case for fighting this war to the bitter end. Like this, they say we always do the same thing over and over again. We get attacked, we respond with force, and we pull out before actually destroying Hamas or sufficiently bringing the extremists to heel. This time we are going to finish the war. As I've said before, finishing the war sounds a lot to me like an ethnic cleansing or a genocide. It always seems to imply the removal not just of Hamas, but of the Palestinian population from Gaza. And the proposal has garnered much less resistance among Israelis than I had hoped. Right now Israel is getting ready to occupy the entire Strip and openly floating plans to relocate Gazans. I found this logic not only cruel, but frustratingly unimaginative. There's more than one way to not do what we've always done. Rather than taking control of Gaza and pushing Palestinians out, what if Israel did the most radical thing for reconciliation? They could propose real terms for a free Palestinian state, terms that are acceptable to both sides and let the Palestinian people decide whether they'd rather live under Hamas oppression and Israeli fire or free of both. It's an appealing prospect. It certainly appeals to me. But to go back to my first point, I can't even begin to discuss it today without feeling totally naive, Pollyannish and absurd. The truth, the hard but unavoidable truth, is that we are not months or years, but probably decades, away from a lasting peace project with any staying power. My opinion, which I understand differs from others, is that the first step towards that future is to end this war. That has been true for many months. Israel has to leave Gaza and stop bombing it. Hamas has to surrender, release the remaining hostages and stop firing rockets into Israel. Nothing else moves until those things are checked off the list. Then Gaza has to be rebuilt. It has to become livable again. People need to be able to worship. Kids need to go to schools. Food and water need to flow freely. Hospitals need to function. A genuine governing coalition has to be formed that is not based on the idea of destroying Israel or ejecting Jews from the region. That government doesn't stand a chance unless it is freely elected by Gazans, not imposed through the press release dictates by foreign leaders. All of this would be much easier with a political and cultural revolution that embraces moderation and coexistence. And this, by the way, is now a problem among Israel's right as well, and only then. After the war ends, after the rebuilding begins, after the reforms start, after the political movements toward the center end, after a governing coalition is formed, can negotiations over a lasting peace plan and Palestinian statehood take place? The foundation for peace would likely require years to build. It will involve Israeli officials pointing to all the territorial offers they've made in the past that have been rejected or ruined, and demanding that Palestinians accept responsibility for getting less now than they could have 50 years ago. It will involve Palestinians demanding access to holy sites they've been prohibited from for decades and demanding bare minimums that have been included in many of the deals they have refused in the past. This will all be predicated on drawing up a territorial agreement that is amenable to enough Palestinians and enough Israelis that leaders on both sides can manage the fear and fury from their own people who will inevitably reject it. In other words, it will involve compromise. This would all need to happen amid generational healing between the millions of Palestinian and Israeli children currently living through this war. They will have to unlearn their hate to allow the next generation not to be taught that the people across their territorial lines are enemies. This is the honest path, the only way, the only realistic description of what is to come. It is a low probability but high reward path, which is why it repeatedly and continuously fails until one day it won't. I'll offer this closing thought too. A disastrous, horrific episode like October 7th in the years since could be a genuine opportunity. That part is not naive, absurd or Pollyannish. It's a real opportunity for a generation of Palestinians to see clearly the futility of Hamas's vision, the futility of trying to destroy Israel, and the inevitable failure of militant Islamist leadership. It's also a real opportunity for a generation of Israelis to see clearly the folly of Netanyahu's post October 7 response, the unspeakable pain it has wrought, and the impossibility of living next to a nation of people you are constantly and repeatedly suppressing with violence in the name of self defense. The harsh reality is that such an opportunity can't be realized in a matter of weeks, months or years. It certainly can't be achieved through meaningless gestures from other countries in the middle of a war. It will take genuine work, years and decades of hardship and negotiations and true leadership. Anyone selling anything simpler or easier than that is selling a lie. We'll be right back after this quick break.

John Law (29:40)

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Solutions for your best sleep. Check it out at a Sleep number store or sleepnumber.com today foreign. That is it for my take. Which brings us to your questions answered. This one's from Alicia in West Virginia. Alicia said, what's Tangle's opinions on the fighting that broke out in Cambodia and Thailand? Note this is part two of a two part answer to this question. Yesterday we discussed the historical context behind the conflict and described the recent fighting along the border. Today we're focusing on Thailand's Prime Minister Pe Tongtong Shinuat and the scandal around her and our overall analysis of the conflict. When you read about the ceasefire Cambodia and Thailand reach, you learn that the people responsible for the agreement were Cambodia Prime Minister Han Mane and Thai Acting Prime Minister Pumtum Wichy Achai. A name you don't read is Pei Tong Tarn Shinuat, Thailand's Suspended Prime Minister on July 1, Thailand's Constitutional Court suspended Pei Tong Tarn, the 38 year old who in August 2024 became Thailand's youngest and second ever female prime minister, over a phone call between her and Cambodian Senate President Hun Saian. In that call, which Hun Saian's office leaked, Peyton Tarn used casual language with the Cambodian president and criticized members of Thailand's military. In particular, Pei Tongthorn called Hun Sai an uncle, a regional term of respect and said that a Thai lieutenant general was an opponent of Thailand and would say anything to make himself look cool. The Shinawat family may be the most politically influential family in the nation's history. The suspended prime minister's father, Thaksin Shinawat, who also served as Prime Minister of Thailand, is now the 11th richest person in the country, considers himself a godbrother of Cambodian Senate President Hugo Unsian. Despite its fortune, the family is a mainstay in the working class populist movement that opposes the country's establishment power structures in the monarchy and military. In 2006, after consolidating a great deal of political power and facing charges of abuse and corruption, the military deposed Thaksin Shinawat in a coup. Thaksin is currently on trial for insulting the monarchy. Thailand has a long history of political upheaval and military coups, experiencing 13 successful coups and even more political crises since the country instituted its modern day constitutional monarchy in 1932. Recently, protesters have demanded that Suspended Prime Minister Peitangtarn Shinawat resign, claiming the phone call proves she is disloyal and endangering national interests. Now, after a major party has left Peteng Tarn's governing coalition. And while the court considers her case, the prime minister seems to be on her way out and the country appears to be on the verge of another couple. We're not really in a position to offer an opinion on a conflict that we too are only learning about in real time. But from where we're sitting, the good news is both sides seem sincere in wanting to avoid an all out war. Hopefully this write up allows you to better understand, contrast and contextualize the news you are reading about the conflict and come away with your own conclusions. All right, that is it for your questions answered. I'm never going to forgive Ari for writing up the response to this question with all those names I had to pronounce publicly. I'm going to send it back to John for the rest of the pod and I'll see you guys tomorrow for a very special edition of the podcast Peace.

John Law (34:06)

Thanks Isaac. Here's your under the Radar story for today folks. On Monday, Illinois Governor J.B. pritzker signed a bill banning artificial intelligence therapy, making it the first state to enact AI regulations for mental health services. The bill passed both chambers of the state legislature unanimously, with lawmakers highlighting instances of AI chatbots providing dangerous suggestions to users in mental health crises. To explain the necessity of the new policies, the law bars AI chatbots, or tools, from acting as a standalone therapist and prohibits licensed therapists from using AI to make therapeutic decisions or perform any therapeutic communication. Companies or individuals found to violate the law face $10,000 in fines. Engadget has this story and there's a link in today's episode Description alright, next up is our numbers section. The number of countries in the Group of 20 or G20 industrialized nations is 19. The number of G20 countries that have recognized a Palestinian state, not counting Britain, Canada or France, is 10, according to the Palestinian center for Policy and survey research. In September 2023, 34% of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip expressed support for a two state solution that involved the establishment of a Palestinian state. In March 2024, 62% of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip expressed support for a two state solution. In May of 2025, 34% of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip expressed support for a two state solution, according to Pew Research. In 2023, 35% of Israeli adults said that there is a way for an Israeli and an independent Palestinian state to coexist peacefully. 46% of Israeli adults said there is not a way for an Israeli and independent Palestinian state to coexist peacefully. In 2024, 26% of Israeli adults said there is a way for an Israeli and independent Palestinian state to coexist peacefully while 50% said there is not a way. And in 2025, 21% of Israeli adults said that there is a way for an Israeli and independent Palestinian state to coexist peacefully, while 50% said that there is not a way. And last but not least, our have a nice day story. Beekeeper Molly Earle set up a bee removal company, Bees off to save bees that would otherwise be killed by pest controllers. The company quickly grew and soon she ran out of room for all of her bee colonies. In seeking a solution, Earl began setting up hives in overlooked pockets of nature by power stations and and replanted quarry sites near docks. Earl's bees have thrived in these places and are producing award winning honey. Positive News has this story and there's a link in today's episode Description all right everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, Please go to retangle.com where you can sign up for a newsletter membership, podcast membership, or a bundled membership that gets you a discount on both. A reminder that August 11th through 17th we will be going on our annual summer recess, but we are going to be releasing a special mini documentary on YouTube on Monday. Tomorrow Isaac will be announcing some exciting new changes in our annual State of Tangle newsletter and podcast. And again today we released an interview between Isaac and economist Noah Smith where they talk about the outlook for the US Debt and deficit in the wake of the one big beautiful Bill becoming Law. Isaac, Ari and Camille will be here tomorrow for the podcast and they'll be debuting the new title for the show. I just want to take a second to say thank you to everybody who's been writing in and I've been receiving some of your comments and compliments and thoughts and it's really appreciated that some of you really noticed the little details that go into making this podcast and our other podcasts as well, and it's very heartwarming for me to be seen in that way. We put a lot of effort into trying to make the podcast listenable and special and enjoyable. So your thoughts and feedbacks and genuinely considerate comments are are very kind and deeply appreciated. Anytime any of you want to reach out to me, please feel free to do so. My email is john joneetangle.com alright, with all that being said for Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off. Have an absolutely fantastic weekend y'. All. Peace.

Isaac Saul (38:23)

Our Executive Editor and Founder is me, Isaac Saul and our Executive Producer is John. Today's episode was edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Our editorial staff is led by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman with Senior Editor Will K. Back and Associate Editors Hunter Casperson, Audrey Moorhead Bailey Saul, Lindsay Knuth and Kendall White. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. To learn more about Tangle and to sign up for a membership, please visit our website@retangle.com.

John Law (39:03)

This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever think about switching insurance companies to see if you could save some cash? Progressive makes it easy to see if you could save when you bundle your home and auto policies. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states.

Isaac Saul (39:22)

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John Law (39:53)

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