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- [00:00]
John Law
Did I talk too much? Can't I just let it go? Thank you so much.
- [00:09]
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- [01:25]
Isaac Saul
From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon and good evening and welcome to the Tangle Podcast. A place to get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking and a little bit of my take. I'm your host Isaac Saul and on today, today's episode we're gonna be talking about the government shutdown which now appears over maybe, or at least headed that way. It's 10am on Monday as I record this podcast. So things might change by the time this comes out. I don't think they will, but things might change. So keep an eye out for that. But we're gonna report on what we know right now. Before we jump in, a quick heads up. First of all, tomorrow, Tuesday, November 11th is Veterans Day, so we'll be off from the podcast. We are releasing Press Pass, our once a month newsletter for Tangle members. If you're a subscriber to the newsletter that's coming out the second Tuesday of every month, it's a behind the scenes look at what's going on over here at Tangle. So be sure to become a member. If you want to get that newsletter, you can go to readtangle.com to find it. Other than that, we are just going to relax for a Tuesday, a random Tuesday in November. We're going to have some time off. Also, a quick heads up that I did an interview with Anna Kasparian before our show in Irvine, California. That interview is now up on YouTube. You can go find it by looking up Tangle news on YouTube and check it out. All right, with that, I'm going to send it over to John for today's main show and I'll be back for my take.
- [03:15]
John Law
Thanks Isaac and welcome everybody. Hope y' all had a wonderful weekend. I got so many responses to last week's question about what you've done recently to improve your mental health. I'm going to try my best to go through a few of them as quickly as I can. Most importantly, thank you, thank you. Thank you so much for writing in. I am loving reading all these responses. Liz wrote in and said she takes a daily walk, focusing intentionally on posture, making eye contact, smiling with people. Carly listens to music to set the tone for her day. Laura quit her job at a busy OBGYN practice to open up her own practice focusing on treating women in menopause and allowing her more time with her kids. Nick turned off social media notifications. Boy, I've really got to start doing that. Similarly, Emily got off of social media entirely for eight years. Now. That is incredibly impressive. Joel adapted a ketogenic lifestyle initially to lose weight, but it also helped improve his mental health. Gina picks up trash in her neighborhood to show respect and take pride in her community. Josh, who works as a clinical mental health counselor, incorporates daily exercise to help his mental health. I do that too Josh. I've talked about it before, but hitting the gym is just a necessity for me. Jamie adopted two dogs which she named Loki and Freya. Love those names, the Norse gods and they have made a positive impact on the whole family. Jill has a simple but effective tool which is self forgiveness. I cannot begin to describe how important that is. We are certainly not defined by our worst moments and we need to have forgiveness for ourselves if we expect others to forgive us too. And Matt says daily positive affirmations, specifically reciting these words to himself multiple times a day. I love myself. I love my life. I am happy and I am in control. There were many, many more and I wish I had more time to read them. But thank you so much again for interacting and sharing these answers. Hopefully they're giving everybody in the community something to think about and implement into their own life. My question for you this week kind of came out of watching my 3 year old as she just has so much joy discovering so many new things and it got me thinking. What's something that you hope you never lose curiosity about? I think it's that spark of curiosity that sets us and drives us and inspires us. So again, what's something you hope you never lose curiosity about? Really excited to hear from you all. You can write in to me@johnadtangle.com that's J O niedtangle.com and as always, folks, let's bring the best of ourselves to everything that we do today and every day in the hopes of spreading positivity and joy to the community and to the world. All right, with all that said, here are your quick hits for today. First up, the Supreme Court declined to hear a challenge to its 2015 ruling recognizing a constitutional right to same sex marriage. A the court did not offer an explanation for the decision. 2 President Donald Trump pardoned 77 people alleged to have participated in the effort to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Former Trump attorneys Rudy Giuliani, Sidney Powell, John Eastman and Kenneth Chesbrough were among those who received preemptive pardons. Number three President Trump proposed sending a dividend of at least $2,000 from tariff revenues to most Americans. The White House has not specified who would be eligible to receive the dividends, and the proposal will likely require congressional authorization. Number four, Syrian President Ahmed Al Sharah will meet with President Trump at the White House on Monday, the first such meeting by a Syrian leader. Ahead of the visit, the State Department removed Shirah and Syrian Interior Minister Anas Khattab from a list of globally designated terrorists. Number five the Federal Aviation Administration temporarily halted all flights of McDonnell Douglas MD11 planes, the aircraft involved in the UPS cargo plan crash in Louisville, Kentucky on Tuesday until they are inspected. Roughly 70 MD11 planes currently operate as cargo planes for UPS, FedEx and Western Global. And number six, Super Typhoon Fong Wong has killed at least eight people and forced over 1 million people to evacuate in the Philippines. We have breaking news in Washington tonight, where it appears a deal has been reached to end the government shutdown. You're going to take a live look at a live picture here of the Senate floor where senators just took a procedural vote to advance legislation to reopen the government. The bill advanced by a vote of 60 to 40, just barely meeting the 60 votes needed to keep it moving forward. Now that the bill has cleared this major hurdle, it's a question of when the bill passes, not if. On Sunday, The Senate voted 60 to 40 to advance legislation to end the federal government shutdown after Republicans reached a deal with several Democratic senators. The package includes the continuing resolution passed by the House of Representatives, with amendments to include three bills, known as a minibus, that will collectively fund the operations of Congress, the Department of Agriculture and the Food and Drug Administration, and programs and benefits for veterans in fiscal year 2026. As part of the deal, Congress will also fund the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program through fiscal year 2026. However, the deal will not include an extension of enhanced Affordable Care act credits, which Democrats had been demanding as part of a deal. Instead, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, the Republican from South Dakota, promised a vote in December on extending the credits. In addition to the funding measures, Republicans have agreed to reverse the layoffs President Donald Trump initiated during the shutdown and prevent the use of federal funds to carry out further reductions in force through According to the text of the continuing resolution, any federal employees laid off since October 1st shall receive all pay to which they otherwise would have been entitled. We've previously covered the shutdown, and you can check out our stories with links in today's episode Description the vote came during a rare Sunday session for the Senate, during which three moderate senators who caucused with Democrats Senators Jeanne Shaheen, the Democrat from New Hampshire, Angus King, the independent from Maine, and Maggie Hassan, another Democrat from New Hampshire, negotiated the deal with Majority Leader Thune and the White House. Democratic Senators Catherine Cortez Masto from Nevada, Dick Durbin from Illinois, John Fetterman from Pennsylvania, Tim Kaine from Virginia and Jackie Rosen from Nevada ultimately joined the three moderates in voting for the measure. Senator King said that the length of the shutdown, which reached 40 days on Sunday, convinced some of his colleagues to seek a deal. The question was as the shutdown progresses, is a solution on the ACA becoming any more likely? It appears not, king said. And I think people are saying we're not going to get what we want, although we still have a chance because part of the deal is a vote on the ACA subsidies. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, the Democrat from New York, voted against the package, criticizing Republicans for their refusal to negotiate on health care subsidies. On Friday, we offered Republicans a compromise, a proposal that would extend the ACA credits for a year and open the government at the same time, schumer said. They said no on our compromise. They showed that they are against any health care reform. The measure still must pass the Senate before moving to the House. Once there, Republicans will not need any Democratic support to pass the bill if all GOP members unified pass it. The House has been out of session since September 19, but members were notified that they should expect to vote on the measure this week. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, the Democrat from New York, said that the Democratic caucus will not support any deal that does not include health care subsidy extensions. Today, we'll cover the latest on the shutdown with views from the right and the left, and then Isaac's take.
- [11:18]
Isaac Saul
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- [13:36]
John Law
All right. First up, let's start with what the right is saying. The right views the outcome as a defeat for Democrats. Some say Republicans gave up nothing of substance. Others suggest the resolution is a reversion to the pre shutdown status quo. In PJ Media, Matt Margolis said Democrats caved the government will reopen after a handful of Democrats finally agreed to vote with Republicans to end the shutdown without giving Chuck Schumer and his caucus anything close to a win, margolis wrote. Schumer's caucus agreed to advance a package of spending bills that will reopen the government and extend funding through January. That's it. No sweeping policy concessions. No big wins tucked into the fine print. No historic framework or moral victory. Just a basic continuing resolution dressed up with some boilerplate back pay for furloughed workers and funding for food assistance through next fall. The shutdown began because Schumer thought he could strong arm the GOP into extending Obamacare subsidies that were set to expire and repealing Medicaid reforms that closed a loophole handing out free health care to illegal immigrants. President Trump and Republican leaders had already said they planned to address those subsidies separately, aiming to rein them in and curb abuse, Margolis said. But Schumer wanted drama. He shut down the government over it, thinking Republicans would blink. They didn't. After 40 days of a shutdown over a laundry list of demands, Democrats have nothing to show for it. In National Review, Jim Garrity called the shutdown pointless. Last Tuesday night, Democrats were jubilant, convinced that they had just inflicted the first of many consequential defeats upon their detested foes, President Trump and the Republican Party. And now here we are six days later, and Democrats are once again disappointed, infuriated and at each other's throats, garrity wrote. Republicans needed at least four more Democrats to change their mind. All they needed was a pledge from Senate Majority Leader John Thune of South Dakota to hold a vote on legislation to extend the Obamacare exchange premium subsidies by the second week of December. I'm sure some Democrats eager to put lipstick on a pig will argue that the longest federal government shutdown in history added to the perception of disarray in Washington and made American more frustrated with Republicans just in time for election day 2025, Garrity said. But Republicans just got the government reopened in exchange for a promise of a vote, not even a promise of passage and rehiring government workers who were on the job on September 30th. That's a very small price to pay. And Republicans didn't have to get rid of the filibuster. In hot air, Ed Morrissey wrote that Democrats got nothing more than what they would have with the Clean Continuing Resolution. The Senate will replace that CR with new language that would extend government operations until the end of January while negotiations continue on the fiscal year 2026 budget. Forty days ago, Schumer demanded passage of an extension of expiring Obamacare subsidies, plus repeals of Medicaid changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill act that eliminated coverage for illegal aliens, morrissey said. So what did Democrats end up getting for this biblical walk in the idiotic budget wilderness? A promise for a vote on the ACA subsidies with no guarantee of GOP support. Democrats didn't get anything they wanted. They didn't even get a pass on the filibuster for the debate on ACA subsidies, let alone a commitment for an extension. The only real concession in this deal from the GOP is a pledge to rescind the layoffs that Rust's vote began, and those only took place because Schumer shut down the government. Morris he wrote, rescinding the rifts may be a concession of some sort of but the rifts wouldn't have happened in the first place had Schumer not shut down the government. Alright, that is it for what the right is saying. Which brings us to what the left is saying. The left is disappointed by the outcome, suggesting that Democrats gave up their leverage. Some say the party folded without achieving any of its goals. Others say Democrats were not able to stomach the ongoing damage from the shutdown. In the Atlantic, Jonathan Shait argued Senate Democrats just made a huge mistake. The conventional wisdom about government shutdowns is that they always fail. The public eventually turns against the party responsible, applying more and more heat until its most vulnerable members feel compelled to give in, chait wrote. That did not happen this time. Polls found that the public narrowly but consistently placed the blame on Donald Trump and his allies, not congressional Democrats. What's more, Democrats goal during the shutdown was to draw more public attention to health care, one of their strongest issues and one where Republicans are engineering a social catastrophe. Democrats are demanding an extension of tax credits for people purchasing health insurance on the individual market. That is an issue where they command massive public support, chaitz said. Holding out would have caused serious pain in the short run. If you truly believe that Trump poses an existential threat to the republic, however, this is the kind of ruthless maneuver you would undertake. In cnn, Stephen Collinson wrote about Democratic unity fracturing it might be crass to parse the human misery caused by the shutdown for a partisan win after a political duel that deprived millions of Americans of food benefits, left federal workers with zero dollar paychecks and created chaos and safety fears in commercial aviation, Collinson said. But the crisis precipitated by the expiration of enhanced subsidies for Affordable Care act plans whose prices are skyrocketing, was fought for multi layered political reasons. It will influence judgments on Trump's second presidency and the Republican majorities in Congress and help define the trajectory of the Democratic Party's comeback bid ahead of next year's midterm elections. The headline here is that sufficient numbers of Democrats are folding without achieving the goal that led them to withhold votes from the government funding bill and halt federal operations at the beginning of October, collinson wrote. On the face of it, this looks like a massive failure. Democrats won no undertaking that Obamacare subsidies will be extended despite insisting that such a move was their bottom line. The best they will get is a Senate vote. There is no guarantee that a bill extending subsidies will pass considering the Senate GOP's majority and the prospects of the Republican House endorsing it seem even more remote. In the New York Times, Ezra Klein said Democrats were on a roll. Why stop now? Centering the ACA subsidies created two strange dynamics inside the coalition. First, there was always a crucial group of Senate Democrats that had never believed the tax credits were worth shutting down the government over, klein wrote. Second, for most Senate Democrats, the emotional energy of the shutdown was around fighting Trump's assault on the American system of government. But the actual negotiations about the shutdown were around the much narrower issue of ACA subsidies. Is authoritarianism acceptable so long as health insurance premiums are low? More than anything else, this is what led some Senate Democrats to cut a deal. Trump's willingness to hurt people exceeds their willingness to see people get hurt, and some of them feared that their Republican colleagues would, under mounting pressure, do as Trump had demanded and abolish the filibuster, klein said. This, in the end, is the calculation that defecting Senate Democrats are making. They don't think a longer shutdown will cause Trump to cave, they just think it will cause more damage. All right, let's head over to Isaac for his take.
- [20:59]
Isaac Saul
All right, that is it for the left and the right are saying. Which brings us to my take. So after last week's election results, I wrote about the immediate reactions that I expected. One thing I said was there would be a flurry of activity to reopen the government given that Democrats withstood the political blow back and Republicans now hear alarm bells everywhere. I also said that many Republicans will reconsider the gerrymandering wars. We'll see about the gerrymandering. But the flurry of activity to reopen the government happened at about the pace I expected. Internally at Tangle, my bet was that the government would be open by Wednesday. The current pace of negotiations puts that prediction on track. Why did I think this? After sweeping at the ballot box, Democrats got some momentum and power back, sensing that voters were blaming Republicans more than them and that the anti Trump resistance was alive. In my mind, their wins have given them freedom to end the shutdown, feeling like they got the right kind of attention for quote, unquote, standing up to Trump and that their base was behind them. Republicans, meanwhile, would recognize they got crushed in the elections across the country while the shutdown continues to poll badly for them, and that their control of Congress and the White House makes it hard for them to deny any responsibility. I suspected actually that Democrats would force some concessions on the expiring ACA subsidies, the central issue they claim that shutdown was about. But instead they seem to have gotten not very much. So then what was the shutdown about? Throughout this entire saga, I've said that strangely, it has had no clear defining issue. Democrats kept saying it was about the Obamacare subsidies, and many of their mouthpieces in the media insisted that was the case. Republicans kept claiming it was about funding healthcare for illegal immigrants, a talking point they mostly abandoned after it didn't get much traction. Well, now the government is opening up again without any adjustment to the Obamacare subsidy cliff and with nothing done about any healthcare programs going to unauthorized immigrants, because that was never a real thing to begin with. As State Representative Malcolm Kenyatta, the Democrat from Pennsylvania, said, Democrats effectively got a pinky promise for a vote to extend the Obamacare subsidies sometime in December on a yet to be determined bill at a yet to be determined date and without any assurances that the House would take it up if it passed the Senate. So, yes, they folded. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer voted against the bill and even released a video on X pretending to oppose this outcome. Yet that, to me, is just the theater of politics. This is his doing, and it wouldn't be happening without his approval behind closed doors. I suspect most Senate Democrats are on board with reopening the government, which is why they came out of a caucus meeting with this plan. Of the eight Democrats who voted for it, two are retiring next year and six aren't up for reelection until at least 2028. That tells you everything you need to know. The point obviously was to insulate the party from any political blowback by pinning this on the centrists and then letting the rest of the caucus say whatever they wanted to about the deal to play this right in the press and with their own constituents. Welcome to Washington, D.C. one question I have now is how bad the blowback will be. The problem with inventing an issue to make this shutdown about the Obamacare enhanced subsidies that were passed during COVID on a temporary basis is that when your base follows your lead and makes the shutdown about health care, you have to have an explanation for when you fold without getting the thing you wanted. Democrats don't have an explanation, the Affordable Care act has high approval ratings and the party is riding the tailwind of a hugely successful night and backing down. Personally, I can see the jam Democrats were in. Trump seemed willing to fight the release of snap funding in the courts, air travel appeared on the brink of collapse, and hundreds of thousands of federal workers were furloughed. Also, again, the central fight this was supposedly about is a subsidy that Democrats themselves passed into law with the understanding that it was supposed to be temporary. But while I understand it, it's just not going to make a lot of sense to the base voters who followed the party into battle on the Affordable Care act issue. And you can see that reflected in the House there. Democrats are making a lot of noise about how they will vote against this bill, criticizing the Senate up and down. Representative Ro Khanna, the Democrat from California, is already calling for Schumer to step down. I expect to hear more of that from other members soon. Democratic strategist Simon Rosenberg is now insisting to his followers that they light up the phones in D.C. today and let the Senate know they don't want Democrats to end the shutdown. A revolt against Schumer is brewing, but House Democrats also have no power. Republicans can stick together to pass the proposal in the House and almost certainly will, perhaps with a couple theatrical coordinated holdouts of their own. And Democrats can't stop it then. Even if the Senate does vote on extending the Obamacare subsidies, the House has made no such promise. Will either side feel the pressure? The House has been gerrymandered into non competitiveness and Democrats are outgunned by a simple majority. On our Suspension of the Rules podcast earlier this week, I debated this very issue with my co host who insisted that Democrats would be better off not engaging Trump in a fight on gerrymandering. So they could use the issue in the next two elections, adding that Democrats shouldn't fear a Republican dominated House that already exists and doesn't do a whole lot. Well, this is a good example to me of both one how different negotiations would be if Democrats took back the house and 2 the insidious impact of gerrymandering where previously vulnerable. Republicans now don't have to worry about the optics of a tough vote on the Affordable Care Act. Speaking of Republicans, I want to call out some important aspects of the deal that haven't gotten much attention, namely the way the three minibus bills give very little deference to Trump's spending preferences. First, Trump wanted to cut the Food for Peace program that sends surplus American crops to communities experiencing famine around the world. The Senate rejected that proposal. Second, Trump wanted to gut the Government Accountability Office's funding, which he said Trump's unilateral budget cuts were illegal twice this year, but the Senate retained its funding. Third, and maybe the only tangible sign Republicans felt some pressure, the bills reversed thousands of federal workers firings and forbade any new firings through January 31st. Does Trump mind? Is he even aware? I'm honestly not entirely sure. He spent the weekend posting on Truth Social about, and I don't use this term lightly, a conspiracy theory that Doge stopped Barack obama from getting 2.5 million a year in royalties from Obamacare. He hasn't shown much interest in the shutdown since it started, instead spending much of his time the last few weeks abroad or focused on foreign affairs. He hasn't seemed to care much about how Congress is functioning in either of his terms as president. The concept of a plan once promised on health care is yet to emerge, and with 20 million Americans months away from having their premiums skyrocket under the Affordable Care Act Fact Republicans still have no plan to repeal and replace Obamacare. This is the leverage Democrats had, which they've now ceded. But the president doesn't seem worried about it. And if this is how Democrats are willing to end the shutdown, he probably doesn't need to be. So I'll ask again. What was the shutdown for? The longest government shutdown in US History is now over, but has anything changed? I'm still looking for a good answer.
- [28:20]
John Law
Foreign.
- [28:26]
Isaac Saul
We'Ll be right back after this quick break.
- [28:31]
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- [30:06]
Isaac Saul
All right, that is it for my take. We're skipping today's your questions answered section because we had a lot of stuff pop up on this topic over the last, I don't know, four or five hours. So we had to beef up the podcast quite a bit. So I'm gonna send it back to John for the rest of the show. We'll return on Wednesday and we'll probably have one of your questions being answered in that and I will see you guys then. Have a good one. Peace.
- [30:36]
John Law
Thanks, Isaac. Here's your under the radar story for today, folks. Visa and MasterCard are reportedly nearing a settlement with merchants to end a long standing dispute over interchange fees, the costs merchants pay for credit card transactions. The deal is not finalized, but it would Involve Visa and MasterCard lowering interchange fees by an average of around 0.1% over several years, in addition to relaxing rules over which cards merchants must accept for consumers, the result could be that merchants accept fewer credit cards. For instance, they could accept one type of Visa card but not others. An agreement will require court approval before taking effect. The Wall Street Journal has this story and there's a link in today's episode Description alright, next up is our numbers section. The number of times the Senate has failed to pass the House past continuing resolution is 14. The number of days that the House of Representatives has been out of session is 52, according to KFF. The percent increase on average in premiums offered by health insurers on the Affordable Care act marketplace in 2026 is 26%. The percent increase on average of the average benchmark premium on which the tax credit calculation is based in states that run their own marketplaces is 17%. The percent increase on average of the average benchmark premium in states that use the federal healthcare.gov marketplace is 30%. The percent reduction in flight volume ordered by the Federal Aviation Administration on Thursday in response to air traffic controller shortages linked to the government shutdown is 10%. The number of airports impacted by flight reductions is 40, the approximate number of flights canceled on Friday is 1,000, and the approximate number of flights canceled on Saturday is 1,500. And last but not least, our have a nice day story. In 1693, Prince Rupert of the Rhine became the first to propose the idea that a cube can pass through another identical cube with room to spare. Over the last decade, mathematicians have pondered another Are there any convex polyhedrons, a group that includes 3D solids like cubes and tetrahedrons that don't have this quality? In August, friends Jacob Steininger and Sergei Yurkovich created one completed with 90 vertices and 100. The noperthedron, which combines nope with Rupert, disproved the conjecture that all convex polyhedrons hold the Rupert property. Steininger called the noperthedron success, which turns on a delicate feature of its vertices a miracle. Quantum Magazine has this story and there's a link in today's episode description alright everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, Please go to retangle.com where you can sign up for a newsletter membership, podcast membership, or a bundled membership that gets you a discount on both. We are off of our daily newsletter for tomorrow, but our Press Pass newsletter, talking about the inner workings of Tangle and featuring an interview with one of our staff, will be available for members only. So if you are not yet signed up for a membership, now is a great time to do so. For Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off. Have a great day today and a joyful and reflective Veterans Wednesday Peace.
- [33:49]
Isaac Saul
Our Executive Editor and founder is me, Isaac Sowell, and our Executive Producer is John Lowell. Today's episode was edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Our editorial staff is led by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman with Senior Editor Will K. Back and Associate Editors Hunter Casperson, Audrey Moorhead Bailey, Saul Lindsey Knuth and Kendall White. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75 to learn more about Tango. Want to sign up for a membership, please visit our website@retangle.com.
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John Law
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