Tangle Podcast Summary: The Tennessee Special Election

Date: December 4, 2025
Host: Isaac Saul
Guest/Featured Contributor: Audrey Moorhead (Associate Editor, Tangle)

Episode Overview

This episode covers the high-stakes special election in Tennessee’s 7th congressional district—a race drawing unusual national attention for a traditionally deep-red seat. The host, Isaac Saul, and guest Audrey Moorhead examine what the close results reveal about shifting political winds, party strategies, and the 2026 midterm landscape. The episode features a roundup of arguments and analysis from both right- and left-leaning commentators before diving into Audrey’s personal insights as a Tennessean.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Election Background & Results

[07:03] John Law

• After Rep. Mark Green (R) resigned, a special election was held in Tennessee’s 7th district—traditionally GOP-held for over 40 years.
• Winner: Matt Van Epps (Republican, former Army officer, Trump-endorsed) with 54% of the vote—a 9-point victory over Afton Bain (Democrat, ex-social worker and community healthcare organizer).
• The district went for Trump by 22 points in 2024, but this time, Republicans spent heavily to keep the seat, as polling suggested a close race.
• Both camps focused on affordability: GOP attacked Bain on taxes; Dems countered Van Epps would drive up healthcare costs.
• Despite the GOP win, all voting districts shifted left compared to 2024.
• Democrats hailed the performance in a "safe" GOP seat; some Republicans expressed concern about the margin and trends.

2. Conservative Perspectives: The Right's Take

[11:39] John Law

• Too close for comfort: GOP voices warn the margin is a "wake-up call," citing demographic changes (inflow from blue states to Nashville).
  • David Marcus, Fox News: “A win is a win, but Van Epp's relatively narrow margin of victory will set off alarm bells for Republicans nationally and embolden the socialist wing of the Democratic Party.” ([12:35])
  • “Nashville is not alone in turning bright blue... Republicans need to take those warnings seriously... Right now, nobody seems to know quite what Trumpism is other than Trump himself.” ([13:30])
• Democrats’ aggressive campaign: GOP won despite heavy spending and organizing from the left.
  • Maryland Kittle, The Federalist: Bain, dubbed "the AOC of Tennessee," was “far too left for a traditional values district.” ([13:55])
• Candidate quality critique: Some say Bain’s leftward stances made her a weak nominee, and Democrats may repeat this pattern elsewhere.
  • Noah Rothman, National Review: “For all of the environmental advantages that buoyed Bain, she was also a terrible candidate... she underperformed what looks like the emerging Democratic party baseline.” ([14:45])

3. Liberal Perspectives: The Left's Take

[15:15] John Law

• Warning for Republicans: Left-leaning writers argue that Dems' strong showing signals GOP vulnerability in 2026.
  • Nate Cohen, NYT: “The GOP continues to slip. If the last month—or really the last year—of election results is any indication, today’s Republicans are following the same path... They've lost or badly underperformed over and over, including on Tuesday.” ([16:00])
• Republican voter enthusiasm waning: Lower energy among conservatives and a sharp drop in GOP voters’ approval of Congress.
  • Paul Kane, Washington Post: “The underperformance of Tennessee’s 7th... backs up research showing a lack of energy among conservative base voters...” ([17:45])
• Democrat overperformance in red territory:
  • Aaron Blake, CNN: “Bain overperformed Democrats’ 2024 presidential margin by about 13 points... Democrats appear to be performing better electorally than they did in 2017, and went on... to win back the US House in a wave election.” ([16:50])

Audrey Moorhead’s Perspective: A Tennessean’s Take

[19:11] Audrey Moorhead

The Meaning of the Close Race

• “The race became so close is noteworthy in itself and has huge implications for the midterm elections. Matt Van Epps only managed to hold the district by single digits, after the party poured millions into defending the seat against a very progressive challenger in Afton Bain. This should have the national GOP battening down the hatches on its own.” ([19:32])

District Dynamics and Turnout

• The 7th was redrawn in 2022 to divide Nashville’s Democratic bloc; now even with high turnout, the GOP win wasn’t comfortable.
  • “Voter turnout can be wonky for off cycle special elections... those two factors seemed likely to produce much higher turnout from Democratic voters than Republicans... But on election Day, it wasn't as low as expected, hitting 180,000 ballots—on par with a major election. Election Day turnout favored Republicans; the early vote leaned Bain.” ([20:13])
• Van Epps' victory was aided by a huge, late right-wing turnout surge, possibly motivated by attack ads.

Candidates & Messaging

• Bain’s progressive history galvanized Nashville Democrats but fueled GOP attacks:
  • “Bain is a decidedly far-left member of her party... In 2019, Bain penned an essay... saying, ‘Tennessee is a racist state with a racist legislature’... She also spoke out in favor of dissolving the Metro Nashville Police Department... Videos of her crying on the floor of the Tennessee Capitol... her unfortunate statement, ‘I’m a very radical person’—which played in nearly every attack ad, sometimes multiple times.” ([22:00])
• Van Epps ran as a military veteran and MAGA-endorsed Republican, but remained relatively low-profile and hard to attack directly.
• Campaign ads saturated local media:
  • “While I was at home for Thanksgiving watching football... the ads flooded my TV, and the experience was exhausting. Bain’s ads were bland and moderate, while Van Epps’ attacks were loud, memorable, and effective.” ([24:00])

Strategic Lessons & Implications

• Democrats could have fared better with a moderate candidate less vulnerable to "radical" branding.
  • “While I think a more moderate candidate would have been less vulnerable to attack, possibly narrowing the margin further or even outright flipping the seat, Democrats may instead decide that they should attack the Republican candidate more aggressively next time. Given the intractable state of polarization, I’d almost be willing to bet on it.” ([25:10])
• Republican base was ultimately motivated, but signs point to danger in the midterms if trends continue; Democratic hopes are bright in swing seats.
• Both parties face a dilemma: how to position candidates and messaging in a polarized, turnout-driven era.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• John Law: “For context, the Tennessee 7th... has been represented by a Republican for over 40 years... Former Rep. Greene won his seat by over 20 points in 2024 and Trump carried the district by 22 percentage points. However, analysts predicted a competitive race...” ([07:50])
• David Marcus (Fox News): “Right now, nobody seems to know quite what Trumpism is other than Trump himself. That has to change.” ([13:25])
• Noah Rothman (National Review): “Democratic primary voters... will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in at least a handful of ramp- [cut off]” ([14:55])
• Audrey Moorhead: “That resume [Bain’s activism] was galvanizing for the Democratic base... but it provided ample fodder for Republicans’ line of attack. I can’t help but think that the GOP’s attack ads were the primary reason for the high turnout of low-propensity voters who tipped this election to Van Epps.” ([22:13])
• Audrey Moorhead: “The juxtaposition between her [Bain’s] bland, moderate ads and the aggressive, loud footage... made her seem disingenuous and dangerously radical.” ([24:29])
• Audrey Moorhead: “Ultimately, I worry that the lesson Democrats will take... is not about the candidate, but about the message.” ([25:05])

Important Timestamps

• [02:04] — Isaac Saul introduces the episode and context for the guest take
• [07:03] — Summary of election results and district history
• [11:39] — “What the Right is Saying”
• [15:15] — “What the Left is Saying”
• [19:11] — Audrey Moorhead’s in-depth local analysis
• [22:00] — Bain’s personal history and its influence on the campaign
• [25:10] — Strategic lessons and predictions for 2026
• [33:03] — By the Numbers: stats about turnout, spending, and vote shifts

Conclusion

The Tennessee special election, while resulting in a Republican hold, signaled substantial Democratic gains and deep unease among the GOP about 2026. Observers warn both of candidate selection and the vital importance of message discipline in increasingly competitive—once assumed safe—districts. The episode’s blend of national commentary and Audrey Moorhead’s insider view paints a picture of Tennessee politics at a crossroads and highlights strategic questions for both parties heading into the next election cycle.