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- [00:00]
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- [01:50]
John Law
From Executive producer Isaac Saul. This is Tangle.
- [02:05]
Isaac Saul
Good morning, good afternoon and good evening and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, a place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking and a little bit of my take. I'm your host Isaac Saul and on today's episode we're going to be talking about the Tennessee special election. I'm bringing in Audrey Moorhead today, one of our associate editors. Audrey is from Tennessee and she grew up in the town that is just next door to the district where this race happened. So you know yesterday you guys heard from Will Kaback who has a bunch of Minnesota roots who I thought had a really interesting take, a really good take. I mean, I'm not sure I could have written it better myself. I had some. If I had any objections, maybe I would have gone a little bit further than he did in sort of pinning some blame on the Somali community, which I'm going to talk today about, actually, which I know is a little bit of a controversial opinion, but I think it's. Well, I'm not going to spoil it. I'm going to talk about that on suspension of the rules, which is going to come out after this show and I encourage you guys to listen to. But today, again, some news that was just tied to the local background of one of our writers and editors. So I tapped Audrey and we brought her in for today's take, which I thought was really good. So I'm excited to share that with you guys. The next thing that I want to give you a heads up on is that we have a guest writer coming in to publish our Friday edition this week. So if you get our newsletter, I encourage you to keep an eye out for that. It's from a.m. hickman, who writes the newsletter Hickman's Hinterlands, which is one of my favorite new newsletters. We're going to try and get him to hop on the pod and record the piece as well. So I'm hoping that you guys will get to listen to him share that piece with you here for the Tangle community. But definitely keep an eye out on the newsletter. And of course, as always, don't forget that this is members only content on Friday. So if you're not yet a member, you can go to readtangle.com forward/membership and become one. Your memberships make up 90% of our revenue. It's how we support our work, so we appreciate that. And it also gets you ad free podcasts, which, you know, I know the ads can be annoying, but it's another way we keep the lights on. All right, with that, I'm going to send it over to John and I'll be back. Not for my take, because that's going to be Audrey, but for your questions answered today.
- [04:36]
John Law
Thanks, Isaac, and welcome, everybody. Before we get started, just one more quick reminder that if you missed the Tangle Live event in Irvine in October, the full, uncut, unedited video version of that is now available on our YouTube channel. So I'd really appreciate it if you could all go and check that out. And while you're there, please click like on the video to help us in the algorithm and click subscribe so that you get notifications on what videos are coming out in the future. Alright? With that said, here are your quick hits for today. First up, federal authorities have reportedly arrested a Virginia man in connection with the investigation into the pipe bombs placed out outside the headquarters of the Republican and Democratic National Committees the night before the January 6, 2021 Capitol riots. Number two, a Defense Department Inspector General report found that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth could have endangered troops and violated some Pentagon rules when he shared sensitive information about imminent U.S. military action in Yemen through signal on his personal cell phone. The report also stated Hegseth has the authority to declassify Defense Department information, suggesting he did not break the law. Number three, Navy Admiral Frank Mitch Bradley will brief lawmakers on the September 2 strike on an alleged drug boat in the Caribbean that has come under scrutiny following reports that Bradley authorized a second strike to intentionally kill survivors. Number four, the Trump administration began enhanced immigration enforcement operations in New Orleans and Minneapolis. President Donald Trump also said he has plans to send National Guard troops to Louisiana. And number five, President Trump pardoned Representative Henry Cuellar, the Democrat from Texas who was charged alongside his wife in 2024 with bribery and money laundering related to alleged payments from an Azerbaijani oil company and a Mexican bank. The Cuellar's trial had been scheduled to begin in 20.
- [06:35]
CNN Reporter
We do have breaking news this evening as CNN can now project that the Republican Matt Van Epps has won the special election in Tennessee's 7th congressional district that is staving off an attempt at a stunning political upset, upset by Democrats from the candidate in this race, Afton Fain, you just heard from here. It's a district that of course is used to be considered a conservative stronghold. And when I say used to be, I mean last year because President Trump won this district by more than 22 points in the presidential election.
- [07:03]
John Law
On Tuesday, Matt Van Epps defeated State Representative Afton Bain in a special election to represent Tennessee's 7th congressional district. Van Epps, a former army officer endorsed by President Donald Trump, received roughly 54% of the vote for a 9 point victory over Bain, a former social worker and community healthcare organizer. Former Representative Mark Green's resignation in July triggered the special election and the race drew national attention and significant outside spending. Van Epp's win preserves the 220 to 213 majority Republicans held prior to Greene's resignation. For Context, the Tennessee 7th comprises 14 counties in west and middle Tennessee. The district is a GOP stronghold, having been represented by a Republican for over 40 years. Former Representative Greene won his seat by over 20 points in 2024, and President Trump carried the district by 22 percentage points. However, analysts predicted a competitive race in the special election, and independent polling headed into the election showed Van Epps leading Bain by roughly 2 percentage points. The possibility of a Democrat flip led to an influx of funding on the race, with the two parties spending a combined $6 million on campaign ads in and around the district. Both candidates ran primarily on affordability issues, with Republican ads warning Bain would raise taxes and Democratic ads suggesting Van Epps would raise health care costs. Van Epps won the election decisively, carrying every county except Nashville's Davidson County. However, every voting district shifted left compared to last year's presidential election. Republican leaders broadly celebrated Van Epp's victory, with President Trump calling it another great night for the Republican Party. Some party strategists framed the night's results differently. Veteran political strategist Matt Whitlock said the results showed one of the biggest flashing red light warning signs we've seen yet for Republicans. Democratic leaders expressed an optimistic outlook on the single digit margin in a district where they have struggled to be competitive for decades. The fact that Republicans spent millions to protect this Trump 22 district and still lost so much ground should have the GOP shaking in their boots, democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin said in a statement. Today. We'll share what writers from the right and the left are saying about the results, then Associate Editor Audrey Moorhead will give her take.
- [09:26]
Isaac Saul
We'll be right back after this quick break.
- [09:30]
John Law
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- [11:39]
John Law
All right, first up, let's start with what the right is saying. Many on the right say the result was too close for comfort and should prompt reflection ahead of the midterms. Some emphasized the massive resources Democrats poured into the race. Others say Bain was a bad candidate, showing Democrats still haven't learned from 2024. In Fox News, David Marcus wrote, GOP win shows Tennessee hasn't been California'd, at least not yet. A win is a win, but Van Epp's relatively narrow margin of victory will set off alarm bells for Republicans nationally and embolden the socialist wing of the Democratic Party, which is already fast on its way to a establishing its dominance, Marcus said. Over the past few years, the population of Nashville has grown by roughly 100 citizens a day, about 30,000 souls a year, and many are coming from blue high tax, high crime states. Sadly, many seem willing to bring their failed politics with them. In her concession speech, Bain said her campaign was the beginning of something powerful in Tennessee and across the South. She could very well be right because Nashville is not alone in turning bright blue, marcus wrote. Republicans need to take those warnings seriously. Say what you will about the tenets of socialism, but at least it's an ethos. Right now, nobody seems to know quite what Trumpism is other than Trump himself. That has to change. In the Federalist, Maryland, Kittle said Republicans won despite the left's aggressive campaign to turn it blue. Bain, dubbed the AOC of Tennessee, still proved far too left for a traditional values district that reaches the borders of Kentucky and Alabama. Bain tried to keep the focus on pocketbook issues, audaciously claiming that she would stand up to both parties to make life more affordable. But she couldn't escape her far left record, much of which stands contrary to making life more affordable for the average Tennessean Kittleret. Like the Squad's Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, Bain has supported taxpayer funded Medicaid for illegal aliens and government run health care. Democrats buoyed by big wins last month in blue states New Jersey, Virginia and California pumped a lot of money and personnel into winning Tennessee's seventh Congressional and more. More so the momentum narrative. The left's full court press helped turn what should have been a blowout victory for the GOP into a race a little too close for comfort, kittle said. As one influential Tennessee conservative put it, Tuesday's special election should be a massive wake up call for congressional Republican leadership. In National Review, Noah Rothman shared the other way of looking at Tennessee's special election results. The first conclusion most political observers have drawn from Republican candidate Matt Van Epp's nine point victory is that it is a terrible omen for the GOP ahead of 2026 midterms, Rothman wrote. There's another way to evaluate this race, though. For all of the environmental advantages that buoyed Bain, she was also a terrible candidate. Indeed, Democratic primary voters in the district seemed to know she was a terrible candidate. In October's Democratic primary election, Bain barely managed to eke out a victory in a four way race. Bain's policy positions on a range of subjects lean far to the left of the median voter in her district, but her party nominated her anyway, and as such, she underperformed what looks like the emerging Democratic party baseline in 2025 special elections, Rothman said Democrats are liable to nominate similarly ill suited candidates in competitive primaries next year, or even oust entrenched incumbents in favor of progressive insurgents. It is almost a certainty that Democratic primary voters will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in at least a handful of ramp.
- [15:15]
Alright, that is it for what the right is saying. Which brings us to what the left is saying. The left views the results as a flashing warning sign for Republicans. Some suggest a blue wave is coming in 2026. Others say Republicans struggle to turn out their base when Trump isn't on the ballot. In the New York Times, Nate Cohen wrote, the GOP continues to slip. The winning party in the last five presidential elections has gone on to lose each of the next five midterms and four of the next five presidential elections. If the last month or really the last year of election results is any indication, Today's Republicans are following the same path almost every election night. This year has gone poorly for them, cohn said. They've lost or badly underperformed over and over, including on Tuesday in a special congressional election in Tennessee, where with nearly all of the vote counted, the Republicans led by 9 percentage points in a district that voted for President Trump last year by 22 points. Like other recent presidents, Mr. Trump has pushed too far in pursuit of an ideological agenda. In doing so, he either alienated many of the voters who put him over the top or neglected the issues like affordability that brought them to his side in the first place, cohen said. After the last year of agonizing debates over the Democrats future, there's something painfully simple, even mundane, about the political opportunity that's opening up for them. They didn't have to do anything. But historically, electoral comebacks haven't been built on fixing what went wrong in the last election, like moderating on the issues or avoiding an unpopular stance. In cnn, Aaron Blake suggested Republicans avoided a nightmare in Tennessee. The Tennessee 7th is a district that Trump carried by 22 points and former GOP Representative Mark Green won by more than 21 points last year. That means as things stand, Bain overperformed Democrats 2024 presidential margin by about 13 points and their 2024 by about 12 points. Blake said the swing is actually smaller than other U.S. house special elections this year. Before Tuesday's race, Democrats had overperformed Kamala Harris's margins by an average of 18 points and their House margins by an average of 16 points in four special congressional elections held in three states Arizona, Florida and Virginia. One fair question for Democrats given the smaller overperformance is whether they fail to fully take advantage of the environment by running a quite liberal candidate in Bain. She gave Republicans plenty of material with her past comments, which included saying she hates Nashville, expressing support for defunding the police, and calling herself a very radical person, blake wrote. But with 2025 soon coming to a close, all told, Democrats appear to be performing better electorally than they did in 2017, and Democrats went on in 2018 to win back the US House in a wave election. In the Washington Post, Paul Kaine said the surprisingly tough Tennessee election reveals House GOP has a base problem. Republican strategists have worried for several months about Trump's plummeting support among independent voters, which helped lead to blowout wins for Democrats in gubernatorial races in New Jersey and Virginia last month. But the Underperformance of Tennessee's 7th congressional district backs up some research showing a lack of energy among conservative based voters, Kaine wrote. Democrats estimate that about 70 House seats held by Republicans are more friendly than this Tennessee seat. In its monthly poll released last week, Gallup found a seismic drop in approval from Republican voters for the job performance of Congress, down to 23%. Back in July, more than 60% of Republican voters approved of the GOP run House and Senate, Kaine said. That's the type of drop that is usually accompanied by a calamitous event that is considered an act of betrayal by one's own political party. That poll has been shared among House Republicans, according to lawmakers, who are warning each other about how Difficult the next 11 months could be for several dozen incumbents. All right, let's head over to Audrey for her take.
- [19:11]
Audrey Moorhead
Hi, I'm Associate Editor Audrey Moorhead. With today's take, the national political party's laser focus on my home state over the past few weeks has been a surreal experience. Of course, the reasons for the attention are obvious enough. Tennessee's 7th district was a 22 point Trump district in last year's presidential election, but early signs showed that Democrats had a real chance of challenging the historically solid Republican seat. Even so, I never imagined that an off cycle race in a district neighboring my hometown would garner so much national attention. That the race became so close is noteworthy in itself and has huge implications for the midterm elections. Matt Van Epps only managed to hold the district by single digits, and that was after the party poured millions into defending the seat against a very progressive challenger in Afton Bain. This should have the national GOP battening down the hatches on its own. Add in that the 7th district was redrawn ahead of the 2022 midterms to split up the Democratic stronghold of Nashville, and the GOP's narrow victory in the district could portend bad outcomes in other favorable districts, not just in Tennessee, but across the country. Voter turnout can be wonky for off cycle special elections, as participating voters tend to be either very politically involved or the highly motivated base voters of the challenging party. Those two factors seemed likely to produce much higher turnout from Democratic voters than Republicans in this election. That expectation was reinforced by the primary elections in which Participation was down 75%, hitting Republican voters harder and sparking Van Epps aggressive campaign strategy and the reaction from national Republicans. If that low turnout had held in the special election and produced this narrow victory for Van Epps, Republicans logical next step would have been working to motivate the base in order to regain their stronghold over the district ahead of 2026. But on election Day, voter turnout wasn't nearly as low as expected. Roughly 180,000 voters cast ballots, about the same level of Turnout as the 2022 midterm election when former Representative Mark Green won reelection by 22 points. And election Day turnout overwhelmingly favored Republicans compared to the early vote where Bain had more support. While the high turnout shows that Republicans resources were well spent in motivating the base to defeat Bain, the victory is a double edged sword. After Bain undeniably converted some swing voters or even moderate Republicans in the district, Van Epps will have his work cut out for him during the 2026 election season. Democrats, meanwhile, can take solace in the narrower than usual loss if they made such a high turnout special election in a traditionally solid red Tennessee district so competitive, their chances in swing districts look fantastic. And recent polls also show plummeting approval of Congress among Republican voters, creating a worst of both worlds scenario for the gop, where Democrats are motivated to turn out while the Republican base is increasingly disgruntled. But the big question for me is whether Democrats are really banking their future on candidates like Afton Bain. Bain is a decidedly far left member of her party. She has a long history as a progressive organizer known for her loud, aggressive tactics. In 2019, for example, Bain penned an essay in the Tennessean in which she wrote that Tennessee is a racist state with a racist legislature and proclaimed that we will continue to be loud, disrupt, cause chaos and speak truth to the racist powers that grip our state until the legislature changes. She also spoke out in favor of dissolving the Metro Nashville Police department, and a 2019 video that went viral in the lead up to the week's election showed her being removed, struggling and shouting from their state House chamber after her outburst towards then Republican Speaker Glenn Cassada. That resume was galvanizing for the Democratic base in Nashville, but it also provided ample fodder for Republicans Line of Attack I can't help but think that the GOP's attack ads were the primary reason for the high turnout of low propensity voters who tipped this election to Van Epps. Van Epps, on the other hand, came into the race a relative political unknown and notably never seemed to be a major focus of the race. He ran on his strong military background, having served nine tours during 10 years as an active duty army officer, but his only political experience was his year as commissioner for the Department of General services under Republican Gov. Bill Lee, a position he stepped down from in order to run for this House seat. Trump endorsed Van Epps in the Republican primary, and most of Van Epps campaign emphasized economic priorities, military service and other standard Republican positions. He was certainly a MAGA candidate, but he didn't have an extreme background. And interestingly enough, in the lead up to the race and even now in the aftermath, very little attention seemed to be on Van Epps himself, which made him a little hard to sell, but also difficult to attack. Speaking of attacks, I've got to Talk about those Ads Normally, when I read about the millions of dollars poured into races from national interests, I don't have a strong grasp of how those numbers translate to the ground. But while I was at home for Thanksgiving watching football with my family and the ads flooded my tv, I found the experience totally exhausting. Still, a few themes stood out. Bain's ads played up the issue of affordability, and she cast herself as someone willing to fight both parties in order to ensure low costs for Tennessee voters. Van Epps took a similar approach in his own ads, but his most effective ads were his attacks against Bain. Much like the Trump campaign's use of Kamala Harris past statements during the 2024 election, Republicans used real quotes and videos from Bain's online presence, videos of her crying on the floor of the Tennessee Capitol, footage of her complaining about Nashville, and most memorably, as in I can literally still hear the line in my head, Bain's unfortunate statement I'm a very radical person, which played in nearly every attack ad, sometimes multiple times. None of Bain's ads had similarly memorable attacks against Van Epps, or even particularly catchy lines about her own positions. And seeing the ads back to back, the juxtaposition between her bland, moderate ads and the aggressive, loud footage of her from the Van Epps campaign created an unsavory picture, making her seem disingenuous and dangerously radical. Ultimately, I worry that the lesson Democrats will take from this election is not about the candidate, but about the message. While I think a more moderate candidate would have been less vulnerable to attack, possibly narrowing the margin further or even outright flipping the seat, Democrats may instead decide that they should attack the Republican candidate more aggressively next time. Given the intractable state of polarization in national politics, I'd almost be willing to bet on it. The Van Epps campaign's success in motivating right leaning voters on Election Day is their one silver lining from Tuesday. Obviously, outside of actually holding the seat. Approaching the 2026 midterms, Democrats seem to have the upper hand when they're able to boil the race down to issues of the economy and inflation. Look at Abigail Spanberger's success in Virginia, or Zoran Mandani's overwhelming victory in New York. But if Democrats continue to run candidates easily branded as radicals, they offer ample opportunity for Republicans to motivate their base in red or purple districts, meaning Republican candidates could force Democrats to get off message and the GOP might be able to limit their losses in 2020.
- [26:20]
Isaac Saul
We'll be right back after this quick break.
- [26:26]
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- [27:34]
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- [28:02]
Isaac Saul
All right, thank you Audrey for the take. Really good stuff. Always appreciate mixing up the voices here. That brings us to your questions answered. Today's question is from Peter in Seattle, Washington. Peter said, I'm curious about how many political Twitter X accounts are foreign accounts. Additionally, why did they change the rules to show where the accounts are from and what caused them to switch it back so quickly? On another point, I heard that the Department of Defense account was from Israel. Was that the only government account that was foreign? And has that been the same account for the last few administrations? Or does each new administration create a new social media account? Lastly, what are your thoughts on the foreign accounts? Okay, great question. This was a big drama for those of you who are very online like we are.
- [28:50]
They made this policy change on Twitter where they started displaying, excuse me, on X, where they started displaying the nation of origin of the accounts on X. Now we were not able to find any definitive numbers or databases detailing how many political accounts on X are run by foreign users, but this new feature revealed that the number is definitely not insignificant. I mean, there were some big, big, big accounts that I have followed or kept an eye on or engaged with before that ended up being foreign based, apparently that were posing as Americans. That's why this is important. It's not like it matters whether the accounts are foreign or American in a vacuum. What matters is that many of them were accounts pretending to be Americans who actually were like from Bangladesh or something. So some of these accounts were left wing or they reported on liberal causes, but the majority of the big ones did seem to be right wing, conservative or MAGA accounts. Now the feature has not been removed, but it has changed slightly after it was rolled out. Initially, a user's initial location was listed next to their date joined information. However, that location information was removed, which led to speculation that Elon Musk, the EX CEO, was scrapping the location information entirely because it was making conservatives on the platform look bad because so many big MAGA accounts were turning out to be foreign. That's not the case. If you look at a user's account page, the location data is still there. Only the initial signup location has been removed. X's head of products said this information wasn't reliable enough to list publicly. So we have a screenshot in today's newsletter of our account. You can see it has the date joined. It says account based in the United States and then it also says that we're connected via the United States App Store. Also, no, the Department of Defense or Department of War X account is not located in Israel. This claim was originally made about the Department of Homeland Security's account and Snopes tracked down the source to find it was a false rumor started on the platform. Government account pages do not display a location. However, after the feature was turned on, those accounts did briefly display locations that showed they were run out of the United States. As for my thoughts on the foreign accounts, this is something that me, Ari and Camille discuss on the most recent Suspension of the Rules episode. So I encourage you to go listen to it. In short, people are free to offer opinions on any subject they like, but misrepresenting their identity when offering that opinion is obviously misleading and misinforming. I mean, someone saying vote for MAGA to protect women's rights in America because I'm not gonna use a bathroom with a trans woman and it turns out that person is based out of Bangladesh, there's clearly something wrong with that. The counterpoint is, you know, you could take Venezuela as an example. We've offered opinions on the Maduro government a lot as a US Media outlet, but that'd be a problem. If we claimed to be a Venezuelan news company when we offered that opinion, it would be unethical. So we wouldn't do that. People on X shouldn't do that. And I think it's a great feature. So kudos to Elon Musk for rolling it out. All right, that is it for your questions answered. I'm gonna send it back to John for the rest of the pod and I'll see you guys soon. Have a good one. Peace.
- [32:16]
John Law
Thanks, Isaac. Here's your under the Radar story for today, folks. On Wednesday, President Trump announced a Transportation Department proposal to roll back fuel economy standards for vehicles established during the Biden administration. The Biden era rules set the industry average for fuel efficiency at 50 miles per gallon by 2031. For light duty vehicles, the new proposal would lower it to 34.5 miles per gallon. Additionally, the Transportation Department plans to scrap a 2024 rule to raise the minimum gas mileage for passenger cars and light trucks by 2031. President Trump said the change is intended to lower costs for automakers in designing their vehicles. Environmental groups criticized the plan as a step backwards. CBS News has this story and there's a link in today's episode. Description.
- [33:04]
Alright, next up is our numbers section. State Representative Afton Bain's improvement over Vice President Kamala Harris vote share between the 2024 presidential election and the 2025 special congressional election in Montgomery county is plus 10, which accounted for 24% of the votes cast in the 7th District. Bain's improvement over Harris's performance in Davidson county is plus 18, which accounted for 24% of the votes cast in the district. The amount Republicans spent On the Tennessee seventh special election was $3.3 million, according to federal Election Commission filings. Contributions From Republican linked PACs as of November 24th totaled $2.3 million. The amount Democrats spent in the Tennessee 7th special election was $2.4 million, according to Gallup. The decrease in Republican voters approval of Congress between March 2025 and November 2025 is 40%, and the decrease in Democratic voters approval of Congress between March 2025 and November 2025 is 4%.
- [34:04]
And last but not least, our have a nice day story. Earlier this year, researchers in Wales found that a vaccine for shingles might be having an unexpected side reducing dementia. The study of 280,000 adults found that those who had taken the vaccine had a 20% reduced risk of developing dementia over a seven year period. A follow up study published Tuesday in the journal Cell reinforced this finding, concluding that cognitively healthy people who received the vaccine were less likely to develop early symptoms symptoms of dementia. This would be groundbreaking for dementia if confirmed. Maxime Taket, an associate professor at the University of Oxford who has conducted research into shingles vaccination and dementia risk. The Washington Post has this story and there's a link in today's episode Description alright everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, Please go to retangle.com where you can sign up for a newsletter membership, podcast membership or a bundled membership that gets you a discount on both Issac and Ari will be on tomorrow with special guest Lydia Moynihan, financial correspondent for the New York Post for the suspension of the Rules podcast and I will return on Monday. For the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off. Have an absolutely fantastic weekend, y'. All.
- [35:17]
Peace.
- [35:19]
Isaac Saul
Our Executive editor and founder is me, Isaac Saul, and our Executive producer is John Wall. Today's episode was edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Our editorial staff is led by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman with Senior Editor Will Kbach and Associate Editors Hunter Casperson, Audrey Moorhead, Bailey, Saul, Lindsey Knuth and Kendall White. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. To learn more about Tangle and to sign up for a membership, please visit our website@readtangle.com.
- [35:58]
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John Law
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Grainger Advertiser
If you're an H Vac technician and a call comes in, Grainger knows that you need a partner that helps you find the right product fast and hassle free. And you know that when the first problem of the day is a clanking blower motor, there's no need to break a sweat. With Grainger's easy to use website and product details, you're confident you'll soon have everything humming right along. Call 1-800-GRAINGER clickgrainger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done.