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- [00:00]
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- [00:31]
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- [01:22]
Ryan Reynolds
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- [02:12]
Isaac Saul
Good morning, good afternoon and good evening and welcome to the Tangle podcast. The place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking and a little bit of my take. I'm your host Isaac Saul and on today's episode we're going to be talking about the Ukraine minerals deal, the framework of the deal that was announced or I guess leaked this week between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Going to share some perspectives from the left and the right and abroad as well. And then my take. But before I pass the pod over to John, I do want to give you a quick heads up that tomorrow we're going to do a little bit of navel gazing. I guess you could say I'm going to be sharing some thoughts about some of what I've been seeing just amid the tangle community the last few weeks and and I hope maybe restate our mission and what we're up to here in a way that offers some clarity to our readers and listeners who I think at times may misunderstand the point of this project and this media organization. And yeah, I'm excited to do that. So I'd keep an eye out or an ear out as it may be for that podcast dropping tomorrow and we'll have a newsletter up as well. All right, with that I'm going to send it over to John to break down today's main story and I'll be back for my take.
- [03:39]
John Law
Thanks Isaac and welcome everybody. Here are your quick hits for today. First up, President Donald Trump said he plans to announce 25% tariffs on goods made in the European Union in the near future. The EU responded that it would react firmly and immediately against unjustified tariffs. Separately, Trump said that his 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada will go into effect on March 4, as well as an additional 10% tariffs on Chinese imports. Number two Hamas returned the bodies of four Israeli hostages and Israel released over 600 imprisoned Palestinians, marking the final exchange of phase one of the ceasefire agreement. Number three Supreme Court chief Justice John Roberts paused a federal judge's order that required the Trump administration to unfreeze $2 billion in foreign aid funds to contractors after the administration asked the court for an emergency order. The groups challenging the White House's actions must now respond by midday Friday. Separately, the Trump administration said in a memo that it plans to eliminate roughly 90% of the U.S. agency for International Development's foreign aid contracts and $60 billion in overall U.S. international assistance. Number four President Trump told reporters that he intends to replace a visa program for foreign investors with a gold card that could be purchased for $5 million as a pathway to United States citizenship. And number five, the heads of the Office of Personnel Management told federal agencies to prepare for large scale layoffs of federal workers in the coming months. A few moments ago in the Oval Office, President Trump said he is open to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visiting Washington later this week to sign a deal that would grant US Access to Ukraine's mineral reserves. This is what the president said Ukraine would receive in exchange $350 billion and lots of equipment and military equipment and the right to fight on. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump told reporters that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had accepted the draft of a deal that would send partial revenues from Ukraine's rare earth minerals to Zelensky, described the agreement as a framework and said that he and President Trump would be holding further discussions. The deal could be signed as soon as Friday, when Zelensky reportedly plans to visit the White House for context. Ukraine controls more than 100 major deposits of mineral resources and estimates that it has 5% of the world's critical raw materials, including graphite, titanium, lithium and uranium and significant deposits of rare earth metals that are used to produce weapons, wind turbines, electronics and other products. President Trump has pushed for a deal on resource rights in Ukraine as a precondition for further US Aid and security support in Ukraine's war with Russia. Earlier in February, he proposed 50% ownership of Ukraine's rare earth minerals as a way for the country to reimburse the US for the military aid it has provided since Russia's initial attack in February 2022. Trump has also said he wants to establish a fund for Ukraine to give The United States $500 billion worth of rare earth and minerals. The draft agreement announced on Tuesday does not include the $500 billion stipulation, but it does create a fund that would give the US 50% of revenues from future monetization of all relevant Ukrainian government owned natural resource assets, whether owned directly or indirectly by the Ukrainian government. Defined as deposits of minerals, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas and other extractable materials and other infrastructure relevant to natural resource assets, such as liquefied natural gas, terminals and port infrastructure, the fund would not draw on revenue from existing mines, oil wells and other natural resource businesses. The current iteration of the deal also does not include explicit security guarantees for Ukraine, though it says that the US Government's support of Ukraine's efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace. Trump suggested that any security agreement would be part of a separate deal, telling reporters we'll be looking at general security for Ukraine later on. I don't think that's going to be a problem. There are a lot of people that want to do it and I spoke with Russia about it. They didn't seem to have a problem with it. Zelenskyy expressed optimism about the deal and said concrete steps on security guarantees would have to be negotiated jointly with the United States and Europe. The agreement comes amid a shift in U.S. policy on the war from the Trump administration. Last week, Trump called Zelenskyy a dictator without elections and said Ukraine should never have started the war with Russia. Those comments followed a meeting between US and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia to discuss the future of the conflict. Afterwards, the countries agreed to appoint high level teams to begin working on a path to ending the conflict in Ukraine as soon as possible. Today, we'll share perspectives on the potential deal from the left and the right, as well as international writers and then Isaac's Take Foreign.
- [08:51]
Isaac Saul
We'll be right back after this quick break. Hey prime members, Are you tired of.
- [08:58]
John Law
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- [09:06]
Isaac Saul
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- [09:11]
John Law
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- [09:16]
Isaac Saul
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- [09:21]
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- [09:23]
Ryan Reynolds
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- [09:41]
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- [10:01]
John Law
All right, first, let's start with what the left is saying. The left objects to Trump's handling of the negotiations, arguing he is taking advantage of a weakened ally. Many support the underlying goal of the deal but say Trump has needlessly acted like a bully to achieve it. The Washington Post editorial board said the White House's Ukraine minerals plan sounds like a shakedown. The president and his top aides are now trying to cajole, coerce and even threaten Zelenskyy into signing over half of Ukraine's revenue from oil, gas and other minerals, as well as earnings from its port worth a total of $500 billion, the board wrote. And what is Trump offering Ukraine in return? So far, not much. Trump already has nixed the idea of NATO membership for Ukraine. I don't think it's practical, he said. The deal makes no mention of any long term security guarantees for Ukraine, and certainly not for the non nuclear strategic deterrence that was part of Zelenskyy's plan. Ukraine has held out bravely against Russia's brutal aggression at the cost of hundreds of thousands of dead and wounded, entire towns and villages destroyed and depopulated, and basic infrastructure damaged by daily R missile and artillery strikes. It has been able to resist because of the steadfast support of President Joe Biden and European leaders, the board said. Now Trump wants to reduce support for Ukraine's sovereignty to a mercantilist deal over its mineral wealth with none of the security guarantees Ukraine needs to remain viable in the face of a revanchist Russia. In Newsweek, Dan Perry suggested Trump's demands make the United States look like gangsters. Trump's gangster like shakedown of Ukraine for its rare earth minerals is a breathtaking deviation from decades of American global leadership, effectively recasting the United States as a global gun for hire, perry wrote. Trump's demand seems aimed at reducing US Dependence on Chinese supply chains. This is not illogical in the same way that any blackmail makes sense on paper. But America has rightly been viewed as a beacon of democracy and a protector of freedom on the global stage when it has provided military or economic aid. This was grounded in strategic interests, security imperatives or moral obligations, not as quid pro quo for profit. If the US Only assists nations at war in exchange for financial compensation, then it ceases to be an ally. It becomes a mercenary. It sets a dangerous precedent. Today Ukraine is asked to trade away its economic sovereignty to fend off Russian aggression. Tomorrow, another vulnerable nation might be coerced into surrendering its political autonomy, perry said. This is not to argue that transactionalism has no place in foreign affairs. It certainly does. For example, when the US agreed to provide Israel with billions of dollars in foreign aid, it gained a strategic ally in the Middle East. However, these arrangements were not mere shakedowns. They were anchored in strategic diplomacy and geopolitical calcul. Alright, that is it for what the left is saying. Which brings us to what the right is saying. The right is supportive of the deal, suggesting that it serves US And Ukrainian interests. Some say Trump's handling of the negotiations showcased his understanding of geopolitical dynamics. In Red State, Ward Clark said Trump demonstrated the art of the deal. This appears to be not so much an agreement. Bear in mind we haven't seen the actual deal yet as just the framework of an agreement. Precisely what the United States will offer in the way of support and what we'll get out of it in return isn't completely clear, clarke wrote. This framework appears to exclude the majority of Ukraine's gas and oil production, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing. Here in the United States we have ample oil and gas resources of our own, and the various nations of Western Europe could use a friendlier source than Russia. Europe doesn't have the strength or the will to counter Russia on its own. That's why they've been seeking all along American involvement. The Biden administration was content to shovel billions into Ukraine, and it appears to be baffling Europe in general and Ukraine in particular that an American president might ask what's in it for us? Clarke said. It is perhaps belaboring the obvious to note that this deal also precludes Russian access to these strategic resources. That's good for now. Remember that nations have no permanent friends, only permanent interests. In national review, Dan McLaughlin asked, Is Trump's minerals deal throwing Zelensky into the Breyer patch? Donald Trump has long argued that the United States should act more like an empire, or at least an acquisitive real estate tycoon, by using the leverage of its military and commercial influence to extract economically valuable concessions from countries that want access to our markets or aid in their defense, McLaughlin said. While there is some truth to this and something to be said for ensuring that our foreign aid, trade policy and military alliances aren't one way streets, this is also a simplistic view of the world and missing how much we benefit from things like general peace in Europe and South America or a free navigation of the seas. Why would the Ukrainians welcome a deal that hands over a stake in the country's mineral wealth to Uncle Don or Sam? Because they understand that if the United States government has a materially significant stake in Ukraine, the security of Ukraine and the avoidance of any Russian threat to peaceful commerce in Ukraine becomes our business, McLaughlin wrote. If this deal goes through as reported, it may not matter that it doesn't commit our promises to the security of Ukraine. It would commit our interests. And that is the thing for which Zelenskyy and his nation are willing to pay dearly. Alright, that is it for what the left and the right are saying. Which brings us to what some international writers are saying. Some writers say Trump's deal sacrifices long term stability for short term gain. Others say the deal is the necessary price of the US Brokered end to the war. In the Kyiv Independent, Dmytro Kuleba wrote, Trump's rare earth deal risks Ukraine repeating history's mistakes. At the beginning of 1918, amid World War I, Germany and Austria Hungary were in dire need of natural resources. Simply put, they needed grain, lard, meat and oil to sustain their war efforts and economies. Ukraine, having recently declared independence from the Russian Empire and fighting to secure its sovereignty, possessed all these resources. Seeing an opportunity, Germany intervened. Kuleba wrote. When Germany lost World War I, its need for Ukraine disappeared. The retreating German forces left Ukraine vulnerable, and resistance to the unpopular hetman grew while Moscow regained strength. And now history is repeating itself, only this time it's the United States instead of Germany. Lithium instead of green, graphite instead of lard. But unlike a century ago, there is no promise to send an army, neither the US Nor NATO to protect the resources Washington needs, Culeba wrote. Politicians should not be at odds with each other. The egos and resentments of politicians, the desire to destroy rivals in order to strengthen themselves, harm both the people and the state. Only Moscow benefits from internal divisions in responsible statecraft. Ian Proud called the deal a steep but worthy price for peace. At over $11 trillion, the value of Ukraine's minerals is significant, and 500 billion appears a relatively small percentage of the whole. But it is in fact a huge sum for a small, hugely indebted country like Ukraine, Prout said. Ukraine exported a meager $4.2 billion in metals in 2023, so it would take almost 120 years to pay back America losing a vital source of export revenue in the process, which it cannot afford. So this deal is more likely about offering concessions to large US Companies to exploit certain fields over the longer term. Inevitably, President Zelenskyy is being nudged towards making a bad deal on terms less favorable than than those available to him in late March 2022 at a huge cost to the country's wealth. I suspect that history will record February 12, 2025 as being the beginning of the end of this act in his stoic political career, proud wrote For President Trump, however, if a cease fire does indeed break out in the coming weeks, he may simultaneously have brokered peace and secured valuable assets for the United States. All right, let's head over to Isaac for.
- [18:34]
Isaac Saul
All right, that is it for what the left and the right are saying. Which brings us to my take. So this is a great step forward. Let me start by swatting away some of the nonsense that I'm seeing out there. First of all, calling this plan a shakedown ignores the basic history of how it has evolved. A mineral rights deal was literally Zelensky's idea. It was part of the victory plan he released last year, in which he said Ukraine could offer allies a special agreement for the joint protection of the country's critical resources, including natural resources and critical metals worth trillions of US Dollars, including uranium, titanium, lithium, graphite and other strategically valuable resources. Not only that, but deals like this are also nothing new. The pearl clutching from the liberal class about Trump's gangster like shakedown being a breathtaking deviation from decades of American global leaders. Effectively recasting the United States as a global gun for hire is actually laughable. We have the largest military in the world. We're more than a global gun for hire. We have always used our vast power to advance our interests around the world. We use our military might to defend other nations when our interests are aligned, and we've never done any of that for free. We have a checkered track record with military intervention. But throughout US history, we have also defended the right people, leaders and nations striving towards democracy and freedom. We should be defending Ukraine, but we also don't interject in every single conflict. We don't always fight for democracy or freedom everywhere, all the time. We do it when our involvement benefits us in some way. That is not new, it's not Trumpian. And acting out of self interest in times of war is not the same as being an unprincipled mercenary. This minerals deal framework makes obvious sense for US and Ukraine and is perfectly in line with similar arrangements that have been made throughout history. History. If Ukraine's allies have economic interests in the country, they'll want stability. If the US depends in some way on rare earth minerals in Ukraine, the US will be upset. If Russia is raining bombs down on the Donbas and will find a way to make it stop. That much is simple. Economic interests can produce military security. Putting aside the US perspective, it's also a wise political move from Zelensky. On Monday, the Ukrainian president responded to nonsense from Trump and Musk about his own personal interests driving the war by offering to step down as president in exchange for peace or NATO membership. A brilliant response that immediately shut them up and made their dictator claims against him look as silly as they are. He is good at this. Zelensky knows that funding from the US and Europe depends on elected officials approving that funding. He understands that those elected officials have to answer to voters at home who may be wondering why their roads are riddled with potholes while $50 billion is sent to support Ukraine. And if he can make the case for defending Ukraine in economic terms, US politicians can sell the support to their constituents back home. On top of being wise, it's rational. Ukraine, like any nation, has strengths and weaknesses compared to other European countries. Its military is a weakness and its natural resources are a strength. It makes sense to use one to improve the other. Writers suggesting Ukraine is being asked to trade away its economic sovereignty to fend off Russian aggression could just as easily write that Ukraine is smartly trading some of its economic strength for its literal sovereignty. And let's be clear here, Zelenskyy does have some leverage. The United States biggest global competitor is China, which is rich in many of the same natural resources Ukraine is. These minerals are critical for the future of all kinds of electronics and tech, from weapons to electric vehicles. The crucial details of this deal have not yet been finalized, but Trump's initial lob here was a paydown of some $500 billion in natural resources. Zelensky says the number in the deal will be more like 90 billion. He clearly understands where the strengths of his position are. These minerals are critical for the future of all kinds of electronics and tech, from weapons to electric vehicles. The crucial details of this deal have not yet been finalized, but Trump's initial lob here was a paydown of some $500 billion in natural resources. And I think it's pretty clear he's not going to get that. Zelensky clearly understands where the strengths of his position are. Let's also not forget that last week a lot of people were worried about Ukraine allegedly being left out of a peace deal. Now Putin is being wholly left out of these negotiations and trying to insert himself by offering up hundreds of billions of dollars or even Russia's own mineral resources, including those on lands Russia is occupying in Ukraine. If you are the Trump administration, this is a good place to be. You want Russia squirming and you want an avenue toward a long term win win deal for Ukraine. As I said last week and I've said every time we've written about this topic for the past three years, Russia started this war. They can end it any day by leaving Ukraine. And we should never forget that. Putin invaded a sovereign country on the trumped up premise that 40 million free Ukrainians belong to him. That much should be obvious to everyone, including the US President, and it is appalling that it is apparently not. That being said, I'll judge Trump by the outcome here. The previous administration had three years to usher in a resolution to this conflict, which started on its watch in the first place. Biden did a good job rallying European allies to Ukrainian side, and he did the right thing by pushing U.S. lawmakers to support Ukraine in the war. If anything, with 2020 hindsight, I believe if we had more faith in Ukraine and supported them more aggressively early on in the war, it may well be over by now. Unfortunately, while the Biden administration succeeded in helping prevent the fall of Ukraine, it failed in ushering in a peace deal. Given that, I do not blame Trump or the Trump administration for taking a different tack, it would be literally insane to keep trying the same thing and expecting a new outcome. Do I wish Ukraine had more on the table like NATO membership and the return of stolen territory? Yes, I do. Am I going to object to a deal that would end the bloodshed, improve the United States long term economic goals, tie Ukraine's security closely to our economic interests, and is apparently good enough for Ukraine's president? Absolutely not. We'll be right back after this quick break.
- [24:58]
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- [25:29]
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- [26:28]
Isaac Saul
All right, that is it for my take. Which brings us to your questions answered. Today's question is from a reader named Joe who said There have been numerous news reports that the US Is a net oil exporter, but the recent tariffs announced by Trump included oil imports from Canada. If we are truly an oil exporter, why would we need to import oil from Canada? And if we do import oil from Canada, what percentage of it is our consumption and would it be substantial enough to result in higher consumer prices? The perspective of economics or how much revenue would be generated by Canada paying to continue those exports to the US the perspective of the Trump administration. So for some background here, President Trump plans to levy 10% tariffs on Canada energy imports. The tariffs were delayed earlier this month, but Trump said Monday that they will go forward next week. So to your question, yes, the United States is a net oil exporter. In 2023, the Energy Information Administration reported that the US exported roughly 10.15 million barrels per day of petroleum, which includes crude oil, hydrocarbon gas liquids, refined petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel fuel, and biofuels, while it imports roughly 8.51 million barrels per day. It's also true that the recent increases in domestic energy production have reduced our need for oil imports. While the US consumed more energy than it produced every year from 1958 to 2018, advancements in drilling technology like fracking have driven production increases that have made us a net exporter since 2019. With that said, the US is not energy independent. It still relies on oil imports to meet consumption demand. U.S. oil refineries were designed to run on a blend of different types of oil, and Canada has an abundance of heavy crude that is relatively scarce in the US but vital to these refineries operations. Simply put, our energy infrastructure depends on the type of crude oil we Import from the North 52% of the petroleum we import comes from Canada. To your last question, if the energy tariffs go into effect, they'll likely impact consumer prices, but the size of the impact is up for debate. Some analysts have suggested that gas prices would only increase by a few cents, as Canadian oil producers and U.S. refiners would absorb most of the costs. However, others note that Canada could impose an export tax on oil as a retaliatory measure, which would drive prices up more appreciably. All right, that is it for today's reader question. I'm going to send it back to John for the rest of the pod, and I'll see you guys tomorrow and then again on Sunday for our Sunday edition, which I expect will be pretty fiery as it's my first one back since paternity leave, and there's a lot to talk about. So we'll see you then. Have a good one. Peace.
- [29:10]
John Law
Thanks, Isaac. Here's your under the radar story for today, folks. On Tuesday, the Department of government efficiency, or DoGE, deleted five of the largest savings it had claimed on its nascent website tracking efforts to reduce government spending. The removed line items, which totaled roughly $10.2 billion, had been improperly accounted for, the bulk of which came from an $8 billion Immigration and Customs Enforcement contract actually worth $8 million. Neither the White House nor Doge has explained the deletion. Furthermore, the new largest cut on the website is a $1.9 billion Treasury Department contract that was canceled last fall. The New York Times has this story and there's a link in today's episode Description alright, next up is our numbers section. The total amount of US Aid to Ukraine appropriated by Congress since Russia's invasion in 2022 is $175 billion. The estimated amount of U.S. aid allocated to programs that directly support Ukraine is $120 billion. Of that $120 billion, the amount that has been allocated to military aid, budget support for the Ukrainian government and humanitarian aid, respectively, is $67.3 billion, $49 billion and $3.6 billion. The estimated value of the global market for critical minerals in 2024 was 320 billion. The approximate number of mineral deposits covering 116 types of minerals in Ukraine is 20,000. Prior to Russia's invasion, the number of mineral deposits in Ukraine that were designated as active was 3,055. The number of mineral types found in deposits in Ukraine that the U.S. geological Survey lists as critical for America's economic development and defense is 20. The percentage of Americans who say supporting Ukraine in the war against Russia helps US national security is 39%, according to a February 2025 Pew Research survey. And the percentage of Americans who say supporting Ukraine in the war against Russia hurts US national security is 31%. Alright. And last but not least, our have a nice day story. Worldwide, women's athletics continues to struggle for recognition and support, an issue especially evident in Abigail Korteca Korti's story. Korti, a female boxer from Ghana, dreamed of becoming a professional boxer despite being heavily discouraged from training by her family, culture and community. However, with the support of her brother, coach and a fellow boxer, she became Ghana's first female world boxing champion in 2024. I'm a world title holder and that confirms that what a man can do, a woman can also do, qarti said. The Associated Press has this story and there's a link in today's episode description alright everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, Please go to retangle.com where you can sign up for a newsletter membership, podcast membership or a bundled membership, which gets you a discount on both. Tomorrow we're going to be publishing a piece from Executive Editor Isaac Saul responding to some of the criticisms we've gotten over the past few weeks and defining what Tangle is all about. A reminder that if you want access to the Friday editions, the Sunday editions, and our full archive of newsletters and podcasts you need to be a subscriber. In addition to tomorrow's Friday edition, Isaac and Ari will return with the Sunday podcast and I'll be back on Monday. For the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off. Have an absolutely wonderful weekend, y'all. Peace.
- [32:46]
Isaac Saul
Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and engineered by Dean Thomas. Our script is edited by Ari Weitzman, Will Kaback, Bailey Saul and Sean Brady. The logo for our podcast was made by Magdalena Bokova, who is also our social Media Manager. The music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. And if you're looking for more from Tangle, please go check out our website@readtangle.com that's readtangle.com.
- [33:24]
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- [34:25]
John Law
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