Isaac Saul (4:27)

Thanks Isaac and welcome everybody. It is great to be back. I've been away for a couple of weeks. First I actually got sick with the flu and then I got better just in time to go to D.C. and do some filming with Representative Auchincloss. Went there with Isaac and Will and then came back home to find out my wife had planned a surprise trip for her and I for our anniversary and so was gone for a week for that and it all just is kind of a whirlwind. But what an amazing time it was equal parts amazing and encouraging, relaxing and perspective building. So again, so happy to be back and just a big thank you to those of you who wrote in with questions, concerns, well wishes, really appreciate that. Always feels good to be missed. With that said, it's a new week so let's bring our best selves to everything we do and I know that we can have a positive impact on the world. Here are your quick hits for today. First up, Iran launched more than 40 missiles towards Israel on Sunday, injuring 23 people in three cities. Separately, Israel's defense ministry said it had carried out airstrikes that killed three Iranian commanders, including the head of the force that supports Hamas and other proxy militias around the Middle East. 2 A federal judge ordered Mahmoud Khalil's release from immigration and Customs Enforcement detention while his immigration trial proceeds. Khalil was released on Friday night and returned to New York City, where he took part in a protest against Israel's war in Gaza. Separately, a US Judge ordered that Gilmar Abrego Garcia be released on bail during his criminal trial. Number three A federal judge issued a preliminary injunction blocking Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy's effort to tie federal funds for roads, bridges and other infrastructure projects to cooperation with immigration enforcement operations. Number four the Supreme Court ruled that two lawsuits from US Victims of terrorist attacks in Israel against the Palestinian Authority and the Palestinian Liberation Organization can proceed in US Courts, rejecting the PA and PLO arguments that doing so violates the Constitution's guarantee of due process. At number five, a gunman opened fire outside a suburban Detroit church, injuring a security guard. The gunman was killed after he was run over by a congregant in the parking lot and then shot by church staff. Foreign.

Turtle Wax (7:03)

The Commander in Chief with this declaration overnight, I can report to the.

Isaac Saul (7:08)

World that the strikes were a spectacular military success. Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.

Turtle Wax (7:20)

Pentagon officials say it's too soon to tell, but tonight the US Is also preparing for potential Iranian retaliation, though the Trump administration emphasizes the attack was intended as a limited one time strike.

Isaac Saul (7:32)

We're not at war with Iran. We're at war with Iran's nuclear program. On Saturday, President Donald Trump announced that the United States had carried out airstrikes on three nuclear sites in Iran, Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan. Trump called the mission a very successful attack and said the aircraft involved in the strikes were all safely on their way home. The extent of the damage to the sites is currently unknown, though the Pentagon says its initial assessment found extremely severe damage and destruction at each facility. The operation, called Operation Midnight hammer, brings the US directly into the Israel Iran conflict, which escalated on June 13 when Israel launched a series of strikes on Iranian military bases, military leaders, nuclear scientists and nuclear enrichment facilities in what it called a preemptive attack to prevent Iran from assembling a nuclear weapon. For 40 years, Iran has been saying death to America, death to Israel. They have been killing our people, blowing off their arms, blowing off their legs with roadside bombs, president Trump said on Saturday night. I decided a long time ago that I would not let this happen. It will not continue. Saturday's attack involved 125 aircraft, including B2 bombers, fighter jets and refueling tankers. One group flew west from Missouri over the Pacific as a decoy, while another group flew east to carry out the attack. According to the Pentagon, this strategy aimed to confuse Iran and avoided landing to refuel before the strikes, allowing the bombers to reach Iran faster with a lower risk of detection. General Dan Kane, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of staff, said a U.S. submarine fired more than two dozen Tomahawk cruise missiles at the Isfahan site Shortly before the B2 bombers entered Iranian airspace. From there, the aircraft dropped a total of 14 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs on two target areas. The B2 is configured to drop the 30,000 pound bunker buster, the only bomb believed to be capable of penetrating the fortifications protecting Iran's underground nuclear facilities. On Sunday, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the US Was sending Iran public and private messages to engage in peace talks. President Trump also called on Iran to negotiate, warning that there will either be peace or there will be tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days. Remember, there are many targets left. If peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill. Also on Sunday, Vice President J.D. vance rejected the notion that the United States was now at war with Iran, telling Meet the Press that we're at war with Iran's nuclear program. What we did is we destroyed the Iranian nuclear program. I think we set that program back substantially and we did it without endangering the lives of the American pilots. Iran's foreign Minister Abbas Arakji called the US Strikes a grave violation of the UN Charter, international law and the International Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty, adding Iran reserves all options to defend its sovereignty, interest and people. Separately, the Iranian parliament voted in support of closing the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and is a key access point in the global oil trade, though the country's Supreme National Security Council and the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have final say in the decision. Today we'll break down the debate over Trump's decision to strike Iran with views from the left and the right, and then Isaac's take.

Isaac Saul (11:08)

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Isaac Saul (13:12)

Alright, first up, let's start with what the left is saying. The left is mixed on the decision to strike Iran. Though many note Trump's pivot from past anti war messages, some worry that the US has now been sucked into war at Israel's behest. Others say Iran still could retaliate in consequential ways. In Vox, Josh Keating wrote, this time it's Trump's war. The President has repeatedly claimed that the wars in Gaza and Ukraine never would have happened had he been president when they broke out rather than Joe Biden. That's a counterfactual that is impossible to prove, but it's fair to say that both are wars Trump inherited rather than chose. This time it's different. This time it's Trump's war, keating said. It's hard to overstate just how fast the Trump administration's policy has shifted. Just a month ago, Trump appeared to be giving Netanyahu's government the cold shoulder, pursuing direct diplomacy with Israel's staunchest enemies, including Iran. Now, Trump has not only endorsed Netanyahu's war, he's joined it. So far, this war has been characterized by stunning Israeli tactical successes, as well as the seeming impotence of Iran and its once vaunted network of regional proxies. In its response, Keating wrote, this may have emboldened the president, who has backed off of actions like this in the past, convincing him that striking Iran's nuclear program now would be effective and that the blowback would be manageable. It's quite a gamble, and this time he will have no one else to blame if it doesn't go as planned. In msnbc, Nayera Haq called the strikes a massive gamble. This is bad. Trump is taking the bet that sending in the US Air Force with bunker buster bombs will once and for all end Iran's nuclear threat. But anticipating US Military capabilities is very different from dealing with what the volatile leaders of Iran and Israel will choose next, haq said. While world leaders can agree that Iran is a hostile regime and that, in Netanyahu's words, we can't have the world's most dangerous regime have the world's most dangerous weapons, the ongoing military escalation and retaliation were not the only path toward security and stability in the Middle East. Ten years ago, in 2015, Iran agreed to dismantle its nuclear program and allow United nations weapons inspectors inside the country for regular monitoring and review. By all accounts, this worked to halt weapons grade uranium enrichment, if not Iran's other hostile activities, haq wrote. Cooler heads are not prevailing. Netanyahu is poised to open hostilities on a third front, adding to the conflicts Israel is engaged in in Gaza and Lebanon. And his bravado is dragging the United States along. As the primary supplier and funder of the Israeli military, the United States is by default considered complicit in Israel's actions. In the New York Times, Nicholas Kristof explored three unknowns after the strikes. Beyond doubts about the legal bias for bombing Iran, I see risks for America and the world ahead, revolving around three fundamental unknowns. The first uncertainty is how Iran will strike back at the U.S. kristof said. Iran has many options, including attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq, Bahrain and elsewhere in the region. It could also mount cyber attacks, strike American embassies, or support terrorist attacks. Another option would be to seek to close the Strait of Hormuz fully or partly by attacking shipping or by laying mines. That could be a blow to the world economy. The second uncertainty is whether the Israeli and military strikes have ended Iran's nuclear efforts or perhaps even accelerated them. That depends in part on whether the bombing of Fordow and other sites was as successful as Trump claimed, and that may take time to figure out, christophe wrote. The third and final question is the Is this the end of the conflict or the beginning? Even if Iran's enrichment capacity is gone, the expertise to enrich uranium is probably not possible to extinguish. So if the regime remains, this may be more of a setback than an end to the nuclear program. Alright, that is it for what the left is saying. Which brings us to what the right is saying. The right mostly supports the strikes, with many suggesting that Iran left President Trump no choice. Some say the strikes appear successful but may not be the end of the conflict. Others say Trump lacked the constitutional authority to carry out the attack. National Review's editors said Trump enforces his red line on Iran. Trump tried to get Iranians to agree to a real nuclear deal, not a rebranded version of the Obama deal, which allowed Iran to continue enriching uranium and to develop ballistic missiles, but a true deal that ended the threat of enrichment and nuclear weapons, the editors wrote. But it became instantly clear that Iran was not willing to change its terms and had no intention of ever giving up enrichment. If Trump was to show he was serious about stopping Iran from getting nuclear weapons, he had no choice but to attack. The prospect of Iran's radical Islamist regime obtaining a nuclear bomb has haunted American foreign policy for decades. During that time, the regime has carried out terrorist attacks throughout the world via proxies and killed hundreds of US Servicemen serving in the Middle east, the editors wrote. If indeed the US Bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities successfully destroyed the program, Trump's decision will go down as historically important for eliminating a dire threat to the region and U.S. security. In the New York Post, Mark Dubowitz and Ben Cohen wrote, US dealt Iran's nukes a major blow. But here's why the cheers may be premature. It's tempting to react to the US Strikes with unbridled euphoria, but that's still premature. The next few hours and days will produce a sober battle damage assessment by both the United States and Israel, detailing the degree of destruction sustained at these facilities. That, in turn, will determine whether the badly bruised Iranian regime can embark on a reconstruction effort. Dubowitz and Cohen said. Speaking to reporters on Sunday morning, Defense Secretary Hegseth said all three facilities had sustained extremely severe damage and destruction. But neither the Americans nor the Israelis have yet confirmed that the Iranian nuclear program has been neutralized entirely. Should Iran's tottering regime reach a point of collapse, it could well decide to opt for martyrdom in a blaze of glory with strikes against Israel, Sunni Arab nations whom regard it as Zionist collaborators, as well as American, Jewish and Israeli targets in Europe, North America and beyond, dubowitz and Cohen wrote. Yet the strikes could herald the transformation of a region that has been synonymous with foreign policy and national security failure since the occupation of Iraq more than 22 years ago. In Reason, Eric Boem argued the attack on Iran is unlawful. Hours after the US Bombed several sites in Iran, President Donald Trump called the operation a spectacular military success. Whether or not that turns out to be true, the attack looks rather different. As a legal matter, Trump appears to have significantly overstepped his authority, as the attack was not authorized by Congress and was not in response to an attack on American soil or American troops. Boem said the War Powers act does not include a clause allowing presidents to bomb other countries just because it also, despite the fact that the law is frequently discussed in political media in these terms, does not allow a window of 48 hours for the president to do whatever he pleases before alerting Congress and seeking further authorization. But there are unlikely to be any direct political consequences for Trump as long as House Speaker Mike Johnson is willing to look the other way, Boem wrote, the War Powers act should not be treated as a series of suggestions that can be discarded when they seem inconvenient. Indeed, limits on executive power are most essential at the moments when they are inconvenient. Otherwise they are meaningless. All right, let's head over to Isaac for his take.

Isaac Saul (21:23)

Alright, that is it for the left and the right are saying, which brings us to my take. So in his inaugural address in January, President Trump hit an applause line that invoked his view on foreign wars that he's been campaigning on for years. He said, quote, like in 2017, we will again build the strongest military the world has ever seen. We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end, and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into. My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and a unifier, end quote. Those words have been making the rounds since Saturday night, when the Trump administration ostensibly entered Israel's war with Iran. The administration, naturally, is insisting that this isn't what happened. Trump himself called for peace immediately after bombing Iran's nuclear facilities. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said repeatedly that this was a targeted strike, not the opening of a new Front. Vice President J.D. vance flatly denied the U.S. was at war with Iran, telling NBC's Kristen Welker that we're, quote, at war with Iran's nuclear program, end quote. I'm not convinced. In the same NBC interview, Vance attempted to further reassure the country by explaining that the difference between present and past entanglements is that we don't have a dumb president like we have had for 25 years. In the same breath that he promised the US wasn't going to get into some long drawn out thing, he also said that we are now going to work to permanently dismantle Iran's nuclear program over the coming years. Vance and Hegseth each insisted throughout Sunday that they had no interest in regime change. And then that evening Trump came out and said that regime change would be a good thing if the current regime can't make Iran great again. Furthermore, the Pentagon's official assessment is that these nuclear facilities were severely damaged, not permanently destroyed as the president initially insisted. New reporting seems to indicate that Iran was able to prepare the facilities and move some of their equipment before the strikes, in part because Trump was broadcasting on social media during the week that an incoming strike was likely destroying Iran's nuclear capacity without a ground invasion may be impossible and at the least is incredibly dangerous and complicated. So absent confirmation that the enrichment program has been fully dismantled and given the administration's own assurances they won't stop until it is a follow up strike is a logical and predictable outcome here. Meanwhile, the more immediate concern is the nature and scale of the Iranian retaliation. The United States military is now briefing troops that the strikes will likely result in counter strikes on U.S. bases and facilities in the Middle east and likely activate Iran and other foreign terrorist organization cells abroad, including the United States, to conduct strikes against US Persons and facilities, according to a briefing obtained by the journalist Ken Clippinson. Reuters Phil Stewart also reported that U.S. officials expect Iran to retaliate against U.S. forces in the coming days. The open question is whether the Trump administration has the discipline or intent to respond with restraint, which may determine whether this is a short and hot conflict or a long and protracted one. Unfortunately, none of this to me seems like a recipe for a brief engagement. As I said, after Israel's initial strikes, a war with Iran could realistically produce some good outcomes. Israel has spent a lot of time fighting groups like Hamas and Hezbollah that are largely supported and radicalized by Tehran. If you want to take an optimistic view here, it's that Israel and the United States are directly confronting the power center now, not just engaging the proxies. If Iran is severely weakened or a new leadership comes into power, that could cause a positive downstream impact in Iran and regionally 90 million Iranians with free expression, fewer proxy wars across the Middle East, Hamas and Hezbollah without funding and weapons, and a new opening for a grand deal that brings Israel and its Arab neighbors into a lasting, sustained period of peace and economic development. A lot of people obviously believe it's Pollyannish to think this is even possible, but the regional snowglobe hasn't been shaken up like this in some time, and I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that the region is better overall a year from now than it is today. Frankly, a lot of the theorized worst cases feel less realistic than the more optimistic scenario I just described. It's surely possible that we are in the first steps toward World War three, but Iran to me looks weak, isolated and desperate. That may make them dangerous in the short term, but I think it also makes them less likely to attract the support of their purported allies. I've seen no indication that China is interested in coming to Iran's rescue. Russia is clearly occupied. India, another BRICS nation many fewer are talking about, has strengthened ties with Israel and other developed democracies. However, a lot of the bad outcomes are still very likely. My primary fear, as I said before this weekend's airstrikes, is that Iran conducts effective, coordinated and targeted cyber attacks against US Businesses and infrastructure. This kind of low cost, high impact, non military attack still seems far more realistic to me than kinetic warfare between Iranian and American soldiers. Although mainstream pundits seem focused on the latter response, intelligence experts are sounding the alarm that the former is an imminent threat. Second, Iran seems prepared to disrupt shipping out of the Persian Gulf. If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, which they are capable of, it could strangle the region's ability to export oil from the Gulf, which represents about a quarter of the entire globe's seaborne oil trade. We had a surprisingly difficult time tangling with the Houthis when they were firing on ships in the Red Sea, and it's not at all clear to me that we'd be able to dislodge Iran. Third, Iran obviously has the capacity to strike US Bases across the Middle East. If it does, it's hard to imagine Trump not responding with more attacks, which is exactly how long drawn out military engagements come to fruition. Then there are all the known unknowns. Are the rumors about Iranian sleeper cells across the U.S. legitimate? Will Iran continue to break through Israel's air defenses? Would China get involved if its access to Iranian oil is disrupted? These are the kinds of questions that should keep Trump officials up at night, and none of them more so than this. Is Iran more likely to pursue a nuclear weapon now as a deterrent for future attacks? It would be a rational response to look around and think racing to a bomb covertly is a better option for them than trying to participate in international programs that limit their abilities in exchange for fewer sanctions. And if that is the case, how far back did these strikes set their programs? Months? Years? Decades? A few weeks ago, I expected direct US Engagement in Iran to be a political disaster for Trump. But after watching how quickly the mainstream media, independent media, and dissenting voices within MAGA have fallen into line, I'm not so sure. It was rather alarming, frankly. Fox News ran a segment comparing the strikes to Top Gun and preemptively blamed former President Joe Biden for any terrorist attacks that happened in the United states. In response, CNN's Jake Tapper referred to Iran's Reid nuclear weapons program, despite CNN's own reporting insisting that no such weapons program exists. Editors at independent media outlets like the Free Press offered resounding, unambiguous praise for the strikes, describing Trump's decision to carry them out as presidential. Meanwhile, in a triumph of low expectations, Trump's backers celebrated the lack of leaks before the attack, even though the plans did actually leak. And and in a matter of four days, surrogates like Charlie Kirk run from tweeting that 60% of Americans don't want to be involved with a war in Iran to America stands with Trump. Even Director of National Intelligence and anti war voice Tulsi Gabbard, who Trump has repeatedly undermined publicly and apparently wasn't in the Situation Room during the strikes, updated her own assessment of Iran's nuclear ambitions to match President Trump's. And get this, it might be working. According to YouGov polling, support for Republicans bombing Iran went from 25 to 53 approved disapproved to 68 to 13 approved disapproved in the matter of a week. What happens next is anyone's guess. Democrats are now trying to mount opposition to the strikes by claiming Trump doesn't have the authority to order them, which at the very least is not a straightforward claim. The president can issue limited strikes in response to direct threats. But no justification of the bombing comports with a U.S. intelligence that has repeatedly said Iran was not building a bomb. I'm sure Trump's critics will continue to advance legal arguments, and I'd love to see Congress wrest its war powers back from the executive branch as much as anyone, but it's funny seeing Obama Biden cheerleaders act like they didn't cross the same lines during their terms. This story produces a lot of tangled threads that make it hard for any honest broker wrestling with the facts to stake a clear ideological position. Trump pulled out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or jcpoa, or Iran nuclear deal, and many people, including President Obama and Trump's former Secretary of Defense James Mattis, predicted that tearing up the deal would lead to a war. At the same time, Trump gave Iran 60 days to get a deal done, which they didn't do, and he stuck to his word. Axios even reported that he made a last ditch effort to avoid a strike, hoping to create a back channel with Iranian officials. But the effort collapsed because Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was hiding from a potential Israeli assassination and couldn't be reached to authorize the meeting. Perhaps more to the point, the Iranian regime is an oppressive, radical group that is responsible for much of the violence across the region. Yet any group rising to fill the power vacuum created by its absence might be even more destructive. Wars are unpredictable and violence often begets violence. But Iran appears incapable of controlling its own skies, let alone managing to do serious damage to US bases or Israel. It seems just as likely that this regime collapses as it does that the US pays any serious price for joining the fray. At which point a whole new set of unpredictable futures come into focus for Iranians and for the world too. We'll be right back after this quick break.

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Isaac Saul (32:25)

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Isaac Saul (32:53)

All right, that is it for my take. We are skipping today's questions answered section because I wrote a lot for the take. So I'm going to send it back to John for the rest of the podcast and I'll see you guys tomorrow. Have a good one. Peace.

Isaac Saul (33:12)

Thanks, Isaac. Here's your under the Radar story for today, folks. Immigration and Customs Enforcement is rapidly depleting its budget as it seeks to meet the White house's goal of 3,000 arrests per day. According to one estimate, the agency is already $1 billion over budget with three months left in the fiscal year, raising the possibility that President Trump may declare a national emergency to redirect money from other parts of the federal budget to ice. Without emergency funds or the passage of the big beautiful bill, which increases the agency's funding, ICE could run out of money next month. Axios has this story and there's a link in today's episode Description alright, next up is our numbers section. The weight in pounds of the explosive material in the 30,000 pound GBU 57 is 5,300 pounds. The depth in feet that the GBU 57 is designed to penetrate before exploding is 200ft. The number of GBU 57s the Air Force contracted Boeing to produce as of 2015 is 20. The cost per aircraft to manufacture the B2 Spirit, the aircraft used in the strikes, was $2.2 billion in 2022. The range without refueling of the B2 Spirit is 6,900 miles. The percentage of U.S. adults who say it is likely that the U.S. strikes will lead to a wider war between the U.S. and Iran is 67%. And the percentage of U.S. adults Who say it is unlikely that the U.S. strikes Will lead to a wider war between the US and Iran is 20%. That's according to a June 22 YouGov poll. The percentage of Democrats who say it is likely that the US strikes will lead to a wider war between the US and Iran is 81%. And the percentage of Republicans who say it is likely that US strikes will lead to a wider war between the US and Iran is 51%. And last but not least, our have a nice day story. After changing course due to dangerous ice blocks, oceanographers piloting a remotely operated submersible from a research vessel in the Southern Ocean captured the first footage of a living Gonadus Antarctica squid. Prior to this encounter, the only specimens that people had seen of the deep sea squid were in the form of beak fragments found in marine animals stomachs or carcasses caught in fishing nets. What are the odds? Researcher Manuel Nobilo said we were not supposed to be there and not at that precise moment. Popular Science has this story and there's a link in today's episode description. Alright everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, Please go to retangle.com where you can sign up for a newsletter membership, podcast membership or a bundled membership that gets you a discount on both. We'll be right back here tomorrow. For Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off. Have a great day, y' all. Peace.

Isaac Saul (36:09)

Our executive editor and founder is me, Isaac Saul, and our executive producer is John Wall. Today's episode was edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Our editorial staff is led by Managing editor Ari Weitzman with Senior editor Will Kaback and Associate editors Hunter Casperson, Audrey Moorhead Bailey Saw Lindsay Knuth and Kendall White. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. To learn more about Tangle and to sign up for a membership, please visit our website@retangle.com.

Isaac Saul (36:46)

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Isaac Saul (36:47)

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