John Law (6:15)

Thanks, Isaac, and welcome, everybody. Hope y' all had a wonderful weekend. We've got a lot to get into today, so I'm going to jump right into it with today's quick hits. First up, a gunman killed two people and wounded 14 others at a bar in Austin, Texas. The suspect was shot and killed by police, and he was identified as a naturalized US Citizen originally from Senegal. He was reportedly wearing clothes with an Iranian flag design and a sweatshirt that read Property of Allah during the shooting. Number two, artificial intelligence company OpenAI announced a deal to allow the Pentagon to use its AI models with restrictions on domestic mass surveillance and full autonomous weapons. The announcement followed President Trump's Friday directive to federal agencies to immediately cease using AI company Anthropics products after the company refused to accept the Pentagon's terms for use of its models. Number three, the Supreme Court will hear arguments on Monday in a case centering on if and when illegal drug users may possess firearms. Number four, A top aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in recent trilateral talks, Russia agreed to accept US Security guarantees for Ukraine as part of a peace deal to end the war. And five, the Department of Justice charged 30 people in connection with a protest against Immigration and Customs Enforcement at a Minnesota church in January. Nine others, including former CNN anchor Don Lemon, were previously charged. A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran. Our objective is to defend the American people by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime, a vicious group of very hard, terrible people. Its menacing activities directly endanger the United States, our troops, our bases overseas, and our allies throughout the world. On Saturday morning, the United States and Israel carried out airstrikes against Iran, killing Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and other leaders. President Donald Trump said the ongoing mission, called Operation Epic Fury, will target Iran's nuclear facilities, military capabilities and regime leaders, adding that Iranian citizens should prepare to take over the government. The attack marks the Trump administration's second operation against Iran, following airstrikes targeting the country's nuclear facilities in June 2025. Tensions between the US and Iran have been rising in recent months. In December 2025, protests broke out across Iran in response to declining economic conditions in the country, leading to a violent CR by the Iranian regime. President Trump vowed to aid protesters but held off on military action. In the weeks since, U.S. and Iranian negotiators have met for several discussions regarding Iran's nuclear program but failed to reach any agreements. During that time, the US Built up a significant military presence in the Middle east in anticipation of an attack. In a statement on Saturday, President Trump said, For 47 years, the Iranian regime has chanted Death to America and waged an unending campaign of bloodshed and mass murder targeting the United States, States, our troops, and the innocent people in many, many countries. The United States military is undertaking a massive and ongoing operation to prevent this very wicked radical dictatorship from threatening America and our core national security interests. The Israeli military said it struck approximately 500 targets in Iran as of Saturday evening, with many targeting missile launchers and aerial defense systems. In a national address, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, together with the United States, we will strike hard at the terror regime and create conditions will allow the brave Iranian people to cast off the yoke of this murderous regime. On Sunday, the US Military said three service members were killed and five seriously wounded in an Iranian attack at a base in Kuwait, the first deaths of U.S. troops in the conflict. On Monday, U.S. central Command said that one of the wounded service members had passed away, bringing the death total to four. Separately, Iranian strikes have killed at least nine people in Israel. Iran also carried out strikes in the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman, killing at least four people and injuring over 100 more. The strikes targeted US military bases in the Persian Gulf countries, though civilian structures were also hit. The foreign ministers of those countries met virtually on Sunday to coordinate a response to the strikes. Meanwhile, Iranian state television said that over 200 people had been killed and approximately 750 injured in US and Israeli assaults. Ayatollah Khamenei's death prompted celebrations and public mourning in Iranian cities. Khamenei had served as Supreme Leader since 1989 and positioned the country as an adversary to the United States and Israel while trying to establish Iran as a nuclear power. On Sunday, the regime named Ayatollah Aliressa Arafi in its interim Leadership council, which will lead the country until a permanent leader is chosen. The council also includes Iran's president and head of judiciary in the U.S. many Republican lawmakers praised President Trump's decision to launch strikes, while a smaller number of Republicans and most Democrats suggested that the president should not have attacked without congressional authorization. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Democrats will attempt to force a vote on a war powers resolution authored by Representatives Thomas Massie and Ro Khanna to limit Trump's ability to carry out further military action. Today we'll share views from the right, left and right in the Middle east on the strikes and then Isaac's take.

Isaac Saul (12:08)

We'll be right back after this quick break.

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John Law (13:53)

Alright, first up, let's start with what the right is saying. The right is mixed on the strikes, but many support Trump's decision to attack. Some question the rationale for launching a war, the Wall Street Journal editorial board wrote. Trump enforces his red line on Iran the US Israeli attack on Iran that began Saturday morning is a necessary act of deterrence against a regime that is the world's foremost promoter of terrorism. It carries risks, as all wars do, but it also has the potential to reshape the Middle east for the better and lead to a safer world. The board Mr. Trump is enforcing the red lines he drew when the regime slaughtered its people as they protested in January. He said that he'd come to their aid, and now he has. He also gave Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ample chance to strike a deal on nuclear weapons and its missile force, but the ayatollah refused and he was killed in the attack. Mr. Trump has unduly criticized his predecessors for forever wars in the Middle east, but he understands deterrence. He in Yemen, Iran in June, Venezuela and now Iran again. He has taken action against manifest threats in his second term that Barack Obama and Joe Biden refuse to take, the board wrote. The larger gamble is regime change, and no one knows if this will happen. Air campaigns alone rarely topple a dictatorship, but if the US And Israel take long enough to kill enough regime leaders Basij militia and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the chance for an internal coup or popular revolt might open up. In the Federalist, John Daniel Davidson said the administration's justifications for action against Iran keep shifting. If we totally obliterated Iran's nuclear capabilities just eight months ago, then why are we about to go to war with Iran? After all, the justification for US Strikes on Iran has always been that we cannot allow the regime in Tehran to obtain a nuclear weapon. But we were assured over and over for months that Iran's nuclear program had been totally destroyed, davidson wrote. During his State of the Union speech on Tuesday, President Trump accused Iran of restarting its nuclear program and working to build missiles that would soon be able to reach the United States. Really, how is that possible if we utterly destroyed their nuclear program in June of last year? What we're getting from Trump is inconsistent. Last month, when Iran was killing protesters, Trump threatened military action against Tehran, suggesting that targeting protesters was a red line. But today the issue seems to be Iran's supposedly obliterated nuclear program, which is inexplicably once again a major threat to American interests, davidson said. At a certain point, it begins to look like the Trump administration is fishing for a reason to strike Iran. Alright, that is it for what the right is saying. Which brings us to what the left is saying. Many on the left say Trump's rationale for war is lacking. Others criticized the decision as short sighted and baseless. In the Wall Street Journal, Senator Tim Kaine, the Democrat from Virginia, criticized the strikes as unwise and unconstitutional. There was no imminent threat from Iran to America sufficient to warrant committing our sons and daughters to another war in the Middle east, especially without the congressional debate and vote that the Constitution requires. The American people don't want to be dragged into another forever war under false pretenses, Kaine said. The U.S. and Iran have both constructed narratives whereby the other is the aggressor in this long standing conflict. More war isn't the answer. If it were, the past 70 years would have produced a better outcome than what we see today. Mr. Trump suggests that the war is to aid Iranian protesters. This claim is hard to accept from a president who at the same time is deporting refugees back to Iran, where they are likely to suffer the persecution he pretends to care about. Mr. Trump suggests the war is about regime change, but he promised to avoid wars for that reason, given the history of U.S. disasters and attempting regime change in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, kaine wrote. Finally, he suggests that Iran faces war because it interfered in the 2020 presidential election, which he still can't admit he lost. Is this a reason to force our sons and daughters into war? In Jacobin, Branco Marchetti called Trump the warmonger in chief. Of all the dumb, pointless wars the United States has waged in the Middle east, the one it launched today against Iran may go down as the dumbest and most pointless. This is a war that didn't need to happen. Even the man waging it doesn't seem to know why he launched it, mark Hetig wrote. Mere hours before Trump launched it, the foreign minister of Oman revealed the enormous concessions the Iranians had made in negotiations, not just agreeing to not stockpile uranium, making it impossible to build bomb, but diluting the uranium it currently holds and agreeing to full verification by International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors. Didn't matter. Trump spent the last week lying that the Iranians were refusing to make that promise and in one of his last public statements before launching the war, lamented how they had supposedly failed to move far enough in negotiations. Negotiations. Trump had a deal if he wanted it, and one he could have spent the rest of his life bragging was better than Obama's. But he didn't want it, mark Hettick said So whose interest does this serve? The obvious answer is a war hungry Israeli leadership increasingly under the sway of a deranged neo biblical fantasy of using the United States to burn the Middle east to the ground and annex whatever's left. Alright, that is it for what the right and the left are saying. Which brings us to what writers in the Middle east are saying. Some Middle Eastern writers suggest Khamenei's killing could galvanize an anti Western movement within Iran. Others criticize Iran's decision to strike within Gulf countries. In Al Jazeera, Mohammad Reza Farzanagan wrote about Iran after Ayatollah Ali the regime in Iran is different in many ways from the ones that collapsed in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya. The assassination of leader Ayatollah Khamenei may have a profound impact on that does not result in state collapse, Farzanigan said. Within the symbolic universe of Shia Islam to which the majority of Iranians belong, Khamenei's death can be interpreted as the fulfillment of a martyrological script. Death at the hands of perceived enemies of Islam can be framed as redemptive passage rather than defeat. It is not a bitter collapse, as is the case with other Middle Eastern rulers who were once ousted or killed. It is instead an idealized closure, the sacralization of political life through sacrificial death. This martyrological framing has the potential to rally a significant portion of the population, including those who were previously critical of the leadership, around a narrative of national defense, farzanigan wrote. By transforming a fallen leader into a martyr of foreign aggression, the state can trigger a surge of nationalist cohesion and deep seated resentment towards external intervention, potentially unifying the security forces and traditionalist sectors of society in a way the proponents of regime change did not anticipate. In Arab News, Faisal J. Abbas explored how Tehran lost the Gulf Iran has unfortunately lost any sympathy or solidarity it could have garnered through its indiscriminate response to the weekend's attacks carried out by Israel and the U.S. abbas said. Even Tehran's closest regional friends, the Omanis, who until a few days ago were negotiating on its behalf and trying to spare a fatal blow, were attacked by Iran. Needless to say, Oman does not have a U.S. military base. This is a serious escalation that undermines the role of mediators worldwide. It is a shame that it had to come to this after we all believe that the kingdom and Iran could have worked together to stabilize the region of Basrad. This indiscriminate Iranian aggression against Gulf countries is a major own goal, resulting only in the increased isolation of Tehran at a critical moment. Tehran's escalation does nothing but confirm the fears of those that see Iran as the main source of danger to the region and its missile program as a permanent symbol of instability. Alright, let's head over to Isaac for his take.

Isaac Saul (22:10)

Alright, that is it for the left and the right. And some writers from the Middle east are saying. Which brings us to my take. Talking about war is easy when it's hypothetical, but it is a lot harder when the real thing arrives. For weeks, the Trump administration has been sending significant military resources to the Middle East. Speculation about the president's plans run rampant. But as with Trump's buildup outside Venezuela, the outcome was the obvious option. In an 8 minute video address to the nation, President Trump justified the decision to dive headfirst into this conflict by declaring that Iran could not be allowed to build a nuclear weapon. This raised the eyebrows of anyone paying attention over the last eight months. In June, the president said the United States utterly destroyed their nuclear capability. The White House website still has a page declaring that Iran's nuclear facilities have been obliterated, and suggestions otherwise are fake news. Trump has repeated this claim a half dozen times in recent months. So why are we going to war to stop Iran from getting a nuclear bomb they supposedly cannot build? Trump also warned Americans in his address that troops may die. Tragically, that prediction did not take long to come to fruition. So far, four American troops are confirmed dead, and Trump is warning that more strikes are coming and that more troops may die. The United States is not the only place facing casualties. In Israel, at least nine people have been confirmed killed. Four more people were killed across the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Bahrain and Oman. And in Iran, hundreds have been confirmed dead, including at least 153 who died from a strike near a naval base that hit an elementary school, according to Iranian state media. The cost of war is already adding up in other ways, too. Shipping in and out of the Persian Gulf has shut down. The Red Sea routes are being disrupted. In Dubai, the business capital of the Middle east, buildings have been struck by the Iranian response and airports are overcrowded as people try to evacuate. US Bases in Bahrain and Iraq have both been hit, and a US consulate in Pakistan was stormed by protesters. At least 22 people were killed. Hezbollah has announced it was joining the fight for Iran and began firing missiles into Haifa, Israel from Lebanon, and then said 31 people were killed by Israeli strikes. South of Beirut, rockets are breaking through air defense systems in Tel Aviv and landing perilously close to the Old City in Jerusalem. A friendly fire incident in Kuwait brought down three US F15 fighter jets, though the airmen survived. In short, the out of control regional war many of us feared last summer when Trump struck Iran's nuclear facilities appears to have arrived in earnest. For how long will the president tolerate all this? Major military actions during this administration have conspicuously fallen on days when the markets were closed. These strikes began on a Saturday. The capture of Maduro happened on a Saturday, the June strikes in Iran happened on a Saturday and the strikes in Nigeria happened on Christmas. Trump is notoriously reactive to market movements and the price of crude oil rose 7% on Sunday. Will market pressure, combined with the deaths of American troops and the potential for more, move him to de escalate? What if the markets stumble? Or if US Forces are hit by a particularly deadly attack? Among conservatives, a philosophical war bubbled to the surface again this weekend. The divide touches all corners of the conservative movement. On one side are those cheering Trump on. Stalwart right wing publications like National Review and the Wall Street Journal are cautiously making the case that the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is a major victory for the west and celebrating Trump's gumption to do the brave and difficult thing. Other, less reasonable people like Mark Levin are urging no off ramps and calling for Trump to destroy the sub human barbarians in Iran. On the other side is an anti war isolationist wing who feels betrayed. It consists of mainstream conservatives from center right moderates like Sagar and Jetty, who called this the most profound campaign betrayal in modern United States history, to more MAGA right wing voices like Tucker Carlson who've been warning about this conflict for months. Less credible but still influential figures like Nick Fuentes are now urging people to vote for Democrats in the midterms. Democrats obviously are criticizing Trump, but their reasons for doing so seem to differ. Some attack him for not seeking congressional authority, but avoid criticizing the effort to take out Iran's regime. Others view the whole thing as a major mishap. Both the what and the how? Since protests broke out in December, there has been a robust debate that we participated in about whether or not we should or would strike Iran. But that debate is now in the past. We did it, so now what? Of course I'm happy to see Ayatollah Ali Khamenei go. Iran's regime is despotic and oppressive and I support efforts to free the Iranian people. But that thought leaves out a lot of detail. The US Israel military alliance will at some point overwhelm and overpower Iran. And I'm once again shocked and morbidly impressed by the capabilities of the US And Israeli militaries. We will win, obviously. But this is all the easy stuff to say. It's easy to say I'm glad the Ayatollah is dead. It's easy to say at some point we'll win this war. It's dunking on a toddler. It's close to meaningless. The harder and more important question is what happens now? What will the war cost? And what will rise in the vacuum, a debate about congressional war powers feels archaic, if not borderline parody at this point. Congress has surrendered those powers to the executive branch over and over for years on end, showing no interest in reclaiming them. The Middle east has already been thrown into turmoil. From Iraq, Kuwait and Bahrain to Israel, the UAE and even Oman, hundreds of thousands of armed personnel operate in Iran and soon may be untethered from any Central coast command structure. Pro democracy and pro Islamist camps, each divided among themselves in their own rights, will be fighting it out in the streets in the West. We imagine every single living Iranian hating this regime, but that's a delusion. Many celebrated the death of the Ayatollah, yes, but thousands poured into the streets to mourn Khamenei's death. All of this is ripe for long term sectarian violence in Iran and long term destabilization in the region. Like Senator Tim Kaine, the Democrat from Virginia, under what the left is saying, I have a hard time stepping back and looking at the history of U. S Iran relations and imagining that this action will somehow bring peace. For decades we've been attacking each other in sporadic proxy wars, each framing the other as the aggressor, each setting off a new round of violence. The Trump administration says it wants to bring about a new regime, but who? When?

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Isaac Saul (28:57)

They don't seem to know. Trump seems to be stress testing arguments, giving different explanations to different news organizations about what will happen next. He told the Washington Post, we were aiming for freedom for the people of Iran. Axios was told the war could end in two or three days. The New York Times was told four to five weeks with three very good choices who may take control. That was on Sunday. This morning I started my day reading a stunning interview with ABC's John Carl where Trump conceded that all three of the people he thought might succeed Khamenei had actually been killed in the initial strike. Meanwhile, US Air defense stockpiles are being stressed to defend against the barrage of cheap drones Iran is firing across the region. Just as Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Kaine warned the White House last week, Iran seems to have miscalculated by attacking other Arab nations in the region, hoping that would inflict a cost that would stop the United States Israeli barrage, but is instead turning their neighbors against them. After cutting funding for Voice of America, the US Is now having a harder time reaching the Iranian people with the messages they want to disseminate. And everyone who warned that killing the Iran nuclear deal would inevitably lead to war feels vindicated right now. In April of last year, I said I was getting nervous about a war with Iran. In June, I said I was not optimistic but hopeful for peace in the region after the joint U. S Israel strikes. In January, I expressed outright concern and predicted Trump would attack Iran. And in February, Senior Editor Will K. Back began sharing that concern with me. It's surreal to actually be here now with all out fighting, dead US Soldiers and an entire region in turmoil. One would hope we have a plan, an off ramp, a future for Iran, a way out. But the honest truth is that it's not clear at all to me that we do now. We wait and pray for the best. We'll be right back after this quick break. Tonight's meal tilapia surprise with boiled cabbage begin cooking steps 150 now.

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Isaac Saul (31:24)

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John Law (32:02)

Thanks Isaac. Here's your under the Radar story for today, folks. On Friday, a Federal Emergency Management Agency spokesperson said that the agency dispersed roughly half of its disaster relief fund $5 billion over the past week, warning of dire consequences if the Department of Homeland Security shutdown continues. While DHS Secretary Kristi Noem previously said that FEMA would scale back to only bare minimum life saving operations during the shutdown, FEMA is an agency within dhs. The fund sent out last week went toward a range of recovery projects, some for disasters that occurred over 15 years ago. Some Democrats have proposed funding FEMA and other non immigration agencies within DHS amid the shutdown, but those negotiations have so far stalled. Politico has this story and there's a link in today's episode description and last but not least, our have a nice day story. As part of Florida's celebration of the 250th anniversary of the U.S. the state is erecting statues of the Founding Fathers and other prominent figures in American history. On February 25, Governor Ron DeSantis unveiled a statue and plaque in St. Augustine's Plaza de Constitucion commemorating a speech prominent abolitionist Frederick Douglass gave in 1889. At the ceremony, DeSantis said his speech here was very impactful on the community at the time and obviously he was fighting for liberty. He was fighting for the principles that we're celebrating on July 4th. 250 years later, News4Jax has this story and there's a link in today's episode description alright everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, Please go to readtangle.com where you can sign up for a newsletter membership, podcast membership or a bundled membership that gets you a discount on both. We'll be right back here tomorrow. For Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off. Have a great day, y'.

Narrator/Announcer (33:50)

All.

Isaac Saul (33:51)

Peace Our Executive editor and founder is me, Isaac Saul, and our Executive producer is John Law. Today's episode was edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Our editorial staff is led by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman with Senior Editor Will Kaback and Associate editors Audrey Moorhead, Lindsey Knuth and Bailey Saul Michael. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. To learn more about Tangle and to sign up for a membership, please visit our website@retangle.com.

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