The U.S. captures Maduro.

Summary

Tangle Podcast Summary: "The U.S. Captures Maduro"

Host: Isaac Saul
Date: January 5, 2026

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Episode Overview

In this urgent, in-depth episode of Tangle, host Isaac Saul investigates the stunning U.S. military operation that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. The episode breaks down what is known so far about the mission, the charges against Maduro, international and political reactions, and the uncertain road ahead for both Venezuela and U.S. foreign policy. Saul brings together perspectives from the left, right, and Venezuelan writers, then caps the show with his own multi-layered analysis of the operation’s justifications and future ramifications.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. News Recap & Context

[03:46–08:34] John Law, News Roundup

• The show recaps other major New Year stories (HHS fraud, National Guard deployments, ACA subsidies expiring) but zeroes in on the "biggest story": the U.S. military operation to capture Maduro.
• Background on Maduro’s rule:
  • Over a decade as a repressive leader.
  • Claimed a disputed election victory in 2024.
  • Widely unrecognized by international community; the U.S. considers him illegitimate.

2. The Operation: What Happened

[08:34–12:40] Main Story & Details

• On early Saturday morning, U.S. Delta forces raided Maduro’s home in Caracas, capturing him and his wife in a swift operation aided by CIA intelligence.
  • "By 3:30am he and his wife were in American custody." ([08:38])
• Charges filed:
  • Narco-terrorism, conspiracy, cocaine importation, possession of machine guns, etc.
  • Indicted in the Southern District of New York.
• U.S. casualties:
  • No troops killed; six injured in action.
  • Venezuelan casualties: At least 80 people, including military and civilians, killed according to local officials.
• President Trump announces the U.S. will “assume control of Venezuela until such a time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition.”
  • U.S. Oil companies to "move in and start making money for the country."
  • Military quarantine on oil exports planned.
  • Trump floats possibility of action in Cuba, Colombia, Greenland.
• Venezuelan Vice President sworn in as interim president but seems to cooperate (partially) with U.S. authorities.
• Senate to vote on a War Powers resolution to check the White House’s further military action.

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Arguments Across The Spectrum

What the Right is Saying

[14:56–17:30]

• Generally supportive of the operation, lauding Trump’s decisive action.
• Parallels with the 1989 Noriega operation in Panama are drawn—historical precedent for deposing illegitimate, criminal foreign leaders in American “backyard.”
  • Washington Examiner:
    "President Donald Trump took decisive and justified action...enabled special forces to seize and detain dictator Nicolas Maduro...the entire Western Hemisphere is now safer with him in custody." ([14:56])
  • Argues that operation fits into the “Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine.”
• Fox News, Jonathan Turley:
  • Trump didn’t need congressional approval—presidents have used lethal force against foreign actors before (even US citizens: Obama and Anwar al-Awlaki).
  • Noriega’s legal precedent: no immunity when deposed and not recognized.

What the Left is Saying

[17:31–20:10]

• Opposes the operation as illegal, reckless, and potentially disastrous.
• New York Times Editorial Board:
  • Maduro’s regime was brutal, but U.S. intervention is likely to do more harm than good.
    "He is pushing our country toward an international crisis without valid reasons...By proceeding without any semblance of international legitimacy, valid legal authority, or domestic endorsement, Mr. Trump risks providing justification for authoritarians in China, Russia and elsewhere." ([17:50])
  • Operation threatens to repeat the mistakes of Iraq and other regime-change disasters.
• Common Dreams, Kevin Martin:
  • Calls out “bogus” allegations about oil as a cover for resource seizure, not justice or democracy.
  • Points to rising American military aggression under Trump.
    “No one voted for Trump's attack on Venezuela...nor has Congress authorized it on behalf of the American people.” ([19:30])
• Sees the move as illegal under both U.S. and international law; urges Congressional intervention.

What Venezuelan Writers are Saying

[20:11–23:21]

• Most express relief at the removal of Maduro but stress that Venezuela’s problems are far from over.
• El Nacional Editorial Board:
  • Hails the operation as a “surgical” blow against a dictatorship that failed to defend itself.
  • Real hope is for democratic restoration and freeing of political prisoners.
  • “The aspiration of Venezuelans…is for the recognition of the election results of July 28, the beginning of a process of democratic, social and economic recovery.” ([21:46])
• NYT, Colette Capriles:
  • Warns that “foreign occupying force” is not a solution.
  • Deep-seated corruption and dysfunction will not be solved by removing Maduro alone.
  • “For Venezuelans, our situation will not be fixed by Mr. Maduro's departure, let alone by a foreign occupying force.” ([22:22])
  • Fears of insurgency, chaos, and prolonged instability.

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Host Isaac Saul’s Take

[23:21–34:40]: “14 Thoughts on the Capture and Arrest of Nicolás Maduro”

Saul offers a nuanced and critical rapid-fire analysis:

Key Points:

1. On Maduro:

   • "Maduro was an unequivocally repressive dictator...I'll shed precisely zero tears for his arrest." ([23:30])
   • The real results of the 2024 election showed opposition victory.

2. No Real 'Trump Doctrine':

   • Saul criticizes persistent attempts to discern Trump’s foreign policy:
     "For nearly 10 years, American pundits have been trying to decipher one..." ([23:59])
   • Trump is all things—dove, strongman, warmonger—depending on the moment.

3. Personal Relationships Drive Trump Decisions:

   • Trump recently pardoned convicted Honduran ex-president Juan Orlando Hernández.
   • Allegedly influenced Venezuelan opposition leadership choices over personal slights.

4. Predictable but Shocking:

   • Saul predicted military escalation for months;
     "...the only off ramp was Maduro stepping down, which he did not seem keen to do." ([24:48])
   • Questions whether this was just a surgical operation or start of a broader conflict.

5. Why Did the U.S. Do This?

   • Saul notes confusion—including personally:
     “The most common one I’m getting right now is why? Why did we do this? And that's hard to answer.” ([25:08])

6–7. Possible Motives:

• Could be drug smuggling, oil, regional geopolitics, warning to adversaries, support for democracy—or all at once.
• The administration offers no clear, consistent rationale.

8. Domestic Political Gains:
   • Removing Maduro is likely popular among certain Latino U.S. communities.
   • The military operation itself was a tactical success, but:
     “The question is now what? And this is another question the administration does not seem to have a clear answer for.” ([26:41])

9–10. Impossibly Smooth Operation?

• Saul wonders if there were secret back-channel deals.
• “...a seamless operation invites reasonable questions about whether behind the scenes negotiating took place either with Maduro or the people around him.” ([27:10])

11–12. Success Doesn’t Equal Wisdom:

• The first phase worked—but risks and long-term fallout are unknown.
• Tension between new Venezuelan leadership (Vice President Rodriguez) and U.S. vision for Venezuela.

13. It’s Probably About Oil:

• If forced to “bet,” Saul says U.S. oil interests were the biggest motivator.
• “It’s remarkable in the most dispiriting way possible to imagine that in 2026 the United States is still risking wars to protect and pursue its own oil interests.”

14. Who Wants This?

• Saul questions whether any Americans support such drastic measures, predicting possible political blowback and further migration/refugee crises.

"If you pluck an American off the street and ask them about the prospects of kidnapping Venezuela’s president and running the country for a bit, what percentage of people are going to express support? 2%? 5%?...Successful mission or not, I for one have zero desire to see what’s at the end of the road we just got on." ([33:54])

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Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• "By 3:30am he and his wife were in American custody."
  — News Reporter ([08:38])
• "President Donald Trump took decisive and justified action... the entire Western Hemisphere is now safer with him in custody."
  — Washington Examiner Editorial Board ([14:56])
• "By proceeding without any semblance of international legitimacy, valid legal authority or domestic endorsement, Mr. Trump risks providing justification for authoritarians in China, Russia and elsewhere..."
  — NYT Editorial Board ([17:50])
• "For Venezuelans, our situation will not be fixed by Mr. Maduro's departure, let alone by a foreign occupying force."
  — Colette Capriles, NYT ([22:22])
• "The question is now what? And this is another question the administration does not seem to have a clear answer for."
  — Isaac Saul ([26:41])
• "If you pluck an American off the street and ask them about the prospects of kidnapping Venezuela's president and running the country...what percentage of people are going to express support? 2%? 5%?"
  — Isaac Saul ([33:54])

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Important Segments & Timestamps

• [03:46] — News story roundup and introduction to Venezuela main story
• [08:34] — Eyewitness and official accounts of the raid on Maduro
• [09:03] — DOJ announcement and Trump’s comments on interim control of Venezuela
• [14:56] — ‘What the right is saying’
• [17:31] — ‘What the left is saying’
• [20:11] — ‘What Venezuelan writers are saying’
• [23:21] — Isaac Saul’s ‘14 Thoughts on the Capture and Arrest of Nicolás Maduro’
• [33:54] — Saul’s closing concern and criticism

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Conclusion

This episode presents a balanced, non-partisan sweep of the U.S. operation that captured Nicolás Maduro—highlighting legal, practical, and moral uncertainties. The right casts the mission as necessary law enforcement and a muscular defense of U.S. interests, while the left sees a reckless, illegal act with echoes of American imperial overreach. Venezuelan voices are grateful for Maduro's ouster but deeply anxious about U.S. occupation and the long path ahead. Saul, in his signature candid style, probes all motives, acknowledges the tactical success, and warns without certainty that the future for Venezuelans and U.S. foreign policy remains perilous and unclear.

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For further reading and updates:

• Visit readtangle.com
• See linked articles from the Washington Examiner, NYT, El Nacional, and more in episode notes

Transcript

[John Law]

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[John Law]

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[News Reporter]

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[Isaac Sowell]

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[Olivia]

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[Isaac Sowell]

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[News Reporter]

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[Olivia]

From executive producer Isaac Saul.

[Isaac Sowell]

This is Tangle. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle podcast, a place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Sull. And we are back from New Year's break. And it's a new world. Today we are going to be covering the capture and arrest of Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela's former president. Now, I suppose it is a crazy story. I'm still processing a lot of the information we have coming out, but I'm going to share what we know. We're going to share some views from the left and the right. We're going to catch you up on some of the news that you missed, and then we're going to jump in with views from the left and the right, and of course, my take, and also today, some views from abroad. Before we do that, I do want to give a quick heads up that applications are now open for our college ambassador program. Tangle ambassadors represent Tangle's mission of bridging partisan divides on their campuses, spearheading creative outreach efforts to engage their fellow students. Students we have paid positions requiring two to four hours of work during the week in the spring 2026 semester. The applications for College Ambassadors and for college students are open from Monday, January 5th to Monday, January 12th at 11:59pm Eastern. If you or someone you know is interested, you can submit an application with a link in today's episode description or our newsletter, or you can email our Senior editor, Will K Back. That's Will W I L L with any questions. All right, with that, I'm going to send it over to John for some stories we missed over break and today's main topic and I'll be back for my take.

[John Law]

Thanks Isaac and welcome everybody. It is a brand new year, 2026. I cannot believe it is 2026. I hope that you all had some good time off, time to rest and get refreshed and set up some good goals for yourself for this year. I know it's kind of a cliche in a trip to set up goals for the new year and a lot of people crash out way before they even accomplish them. But we've got a whole community here. Maybe we can find ways to support each other through the year. So what are some of your goals for this year and how do you plan to hold yourself accountable to get them done, to see them through? I'd love to hear from you. Reach out to me johnadtangle.com that's J-O-Niedtangle.com I'd love to keep up with y' all through the year and hear what's going on in your lives. And and there's more to talk about on our end as well. So with that said, let's remember to bring the best of ourselves to everything that we do in the hopes of spreading some positivity to those around us. We have a lot to round up from the last week, so I'm going to get into some of the stories that we missed. Obviously, the biggest story over the past five days has been the US Operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, which we are covering as our main story. Today. However, as we typically do after a few days off, we wanted to briefly recap the other major stories that we missed. On Tuesday, Deputy Secretary of Health and Human Services Jim o' Neill announced HHS froze hundreds of millions of dollars in childcare funding for Minnesota in response to allegations of widespread fraud in childcare centers run by members of the state's Somali community. The next day, a spokesperson for HHS said that no funds had been frozen, instead reporting that requirements were tightened across the country. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem also said that officials were investigating the allegations. On Wednesday, President Trump announced that he would end the current National Guard deployments to Chicago, Los Angeles and Portland, Oregon, though he suggested he could mobilize the Guard again in the future. The announcement followed a Supreme Court decision to uphold a lower court order blocking the Chicago deployment. Separately, the House Judiciary Committee released the transcript of former Special counsel Jack Smith's testimony on his investigations into President Trump. Earlier in December, Smith said his team had amassed evidence that proved beyond a reasonable doubt that President Trump engaged in a criminal scheme to overturn the results of the 2020 election and to prevent the lawful transition of power. On Thursday, New Year's day, at least 40 people were killed and 115 injured in Switzerland when a fire broke out during New Year's celebrations at a bar in a ski resort town. Separately, enhanced Affordable Care act tax subsidies expired and new restrictions for beneficiaries of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program went into effect in 5. In New York City, Zorra Mamdani was sworn in as mayor, the city's first of South Asian descent and the youngest since the 19th century. And on Friday, the Justice Department said that federal authorities had stopped a planned New Year's Eve terror attack by a North Carolina man who was charged with providing material support to a foreign terrorist organization. In Iran, major protests broke out over rising costs, and human rights groups said that at least 16 people have been killed in clashes with security forces. President Trump said that the US Is locked and loaded and ready to support the protesters if the Iranian government violently kills them. Alright, that is it for the stories that we missed from last week. And now for today's quick hits. First up, Minnesota governor Tim Walz announced he will not run for re election in 2026, saying he would spend the remainder of his term working to address ongoing fraud cases in the state. Walz has come under scrutiny for his handling of the schemes, which prosecutors say defrauded the state of billions of dollars. Number two, President Donald Trump said that U.S. officials have concluded that Ukraine did not target Russian President Vladimir Putin's residents in a drone attack, contrary to Russian officials claims. Number three, French and British forces conducted a joint strike against a suspected weapons storage facility in Syria used by the Islamic State. A group of federal workers filed a class action complaint against the Trump administration over its new policy to end coverage for gender transition care in federal health insurance programs. The complaint alleges the policy discriminates on the basis of sex at Number five, North Korea launched multiple ballistic missiles towards the country's eastern waters. Hours before South Korean President Lee Jae Myung flew to China to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The US Indo Pacific Command said that the launches did not appear to pose an immediate threat to U.S. personnel or territory or to our allies.

[News Reporter]

In Caracas, Venezuela, US Delta forces slipped into the home of dictator Nicolas Maduro. By 3:30am he and his wife were in American custody.

[John Law]

He was trying to get into a safe place. You know the safe place is all steel and he wasn't able to make it to the door because our guys were so fast.

[News Reporter]

Officials tell CBS News that a CIA source inside the Maduro government had tracked the dictators movements for months.

[John Law]

Early Saturday morning, the United States military conducted airstrikes in Venezuela and carried out an operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. Shortly thereafter, the Department of Justice announced that Maduro and his wife Celia Flores, had been indicted in the Southern District of New York and charged with narco terrorism, conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, possession of machine guns and destructive devices, and conspiracy to possess machine guns and destructive devices against the United States. In a press conference later in the day, President Donald Trump said that the United States will assume control of Venezuela until such a time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition. Maduro served as Venezuela's president for over a decade, during which the country suffered economic hardship, hyperinflation and public unrest. In 2024, Maduro claimed victory in Venezuela's presidential election despite substantial evidence that he had lost to opposition candidate Edmondo Gonzalez. The United States and many other countries do not recognize Maduro as the democratically elected leader of Venezuela. In 2020, the Southern District of New York charged Maduro with narco terrorism and the US government raised the reward for information leading to his arrest and or conviction to $50 million in August. We previously covered the Venezuelan election and you can check that out with a link in today's episode. Description in recent months, the second Trump administration escalated action against the Maduro government, alleging that the Venezuelan leader leads a drug trafficking network called the Cartel de Los that is importing substantial amounts of cocaine into the US President Trump has authorized frequent military strikes in the waters near Venezuela against boats allegedly trafficking drugs. And in December, the Central Intelligence Agency struck a port facility on the coast of Venezuela believed to be used by the Trende Aragua gang to store and traffic drugs. According to General Dan Kaine, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, President Trump authorized mission late Friday night and it was carried out as a joint operation involving more than 150 aircraft launched from 20 different land and sea bases across the Western Hemisphere. Maduro and his wife were captured and extracted without resistance. No US Troops were killed, though one helicopter was struck by gunfire and approximately six soldiers were injured. Venezuelan officials said that at least 80 people, including both military personnel and civilians, were killed in the attack. On Saturday, Maduro's vice president, Delsey Rodriguez, was sworn in as interim president and decried the US Operation calling for Maduro to be returned to Venezuela. However, President Trump told reporters that Rodriguez had indicated her willingness to cooperate with the US Also in the press conference, Trump announced a broad plan for the US to run Venezuela for an interim period. The president did not specify who would be in charge or for how long, but he added that we're not afraid of boots on the ground and US Oil companies will soon move in and start making money for the country. On Saturday, Rubio said that the administration would establish a military quarantine on the country's oil exports in lieu of the US Directly managing Venezuelan affairs. Later in the day, however, Trump reasserted that the US Was in charge. On Sunday, the president also suggested that the US could take military action against other countries in the Western Hemisphere, such as Cuba, Colombia and Greenland. This week, the Senate will vote on a war powers resolution that would block President Trump from continuing military action against Venezuela. The measure is a privileged resolution, meaning it requires only a simple majority to pass. Today, we'll share responses to the US Attack from the right, left and Venezuelan riders, and then Isaac's take.

[Isaac Sowell]

We'll be right back after this quick break.

[John Law]

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[John Law]

All right, first up, let's start with what the right is saying. The right mostly supports the operation praising Trump for decisive action to remove Maduro. Others say historical precedent justified U.S. action. The Washington examiner editorial board called it a welcome end to the Maduro regime. President Donald Trump took decisive and justified action this morning, launching precision military strikes in Venezuela that enabled special forces to seize and detain dictator Nicolas Maduro, the board wrote. Maduro was an illegitimate leader despised by his own people, who, like Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega 40 years ago, was running a vast drug trafficking operation that was doing immediate and direct harm to the U.S. like Noriega, Maduro will now be tried in a court of law for his crimes, and the entire Western Hemisphere is now safer with him in custody. The decision to bring Maduro to justice is not an isolated event and should be instead processed in the larger context of the Trump administration's recently released national security Strategy, which promised a Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine that would protect our homeland and our access to key geographies throughout the region, the board said. Removing Maduro dismantles a criminal regime, blocks Chinese expansion and reasserts U.S. resolve to defend democratic democratic sovereignty close to home. This is what strategic realism looks like. In Fox News, Jonathan Turley argued the capture of Maduro did not require approval from Congress. Presidents, including Democratic presidents, have launched lethal attacks regularly against individuals. President Barack Obama killed an American citizen under this kill list policy. If Obama can vaporize an American citizen without even a criminal charge, Trump can capture a foreign citizen with a pending criminal indictment without prior congressional approval to her. Former Panamanian leader Manuel Antonio Noriega argued that his arrest in 1989 violated international law under the head of state immunity doctrine. The district court rejected Noriega's head of state immunity claim because the United States government never recognized Noriega as Panama's legitimate ruler, an argument that will be made in the Maduro prosecution. This action not only confronted Venezuela but also Cuba, which was supplying the security around Maduro. Presumably, Cuban security may have been involved in the firefight while cutting off vital oil to Cuba. The Trump administration just delivered a blow against the Cuban regime, arguably one of the most stinging defeats since crushing the Cuban forces in Grenada in 1983, Turley wrote. Maduro will replay the arguments from the Noriega case. However, he presents an even weaker case on the merits under the controlling precedent than did Norieg. Alright, that is it for what the right is saying. Which brings us to what the left is saying. The left opposes the operation, arguing it was illegal and will not advance U.S. interests. Others say it continues the United States long history of ill advised imperialism. The New York Times editorial board called the attack illegal and unwise. Few people will feel any sympathy for Mr. Maduro. He is undemocratic and repressive and has destabilized the Western Hemisphere in recent years. The United nations recently issued a report detailing more than a decade of killings, torture, sexual violence and arbitration. Detention by henchmen against his political opponents. He stole Venezuela's presidential election in 2024, the board wrote. If there is an overriding lesson of American foreign affairs in the past century, however, it is that attempting to oust even the most deplorable regime can make matters worse. Mr. Trump has not yet offered a coherent explanation for his actions in Venezuela. He is pushing our country toward an international crisis without valid reasons. If Mr. Trump wants to argue otherwise, the Constitution spells out what he must go to Congress without congressional approval. His actions violate U.S. law, the board said. By proceeding without any semblance of international legitimacy, valid legal authority or domestic endorsement, Mr. Trump risks providing justification for authoritarians in China, Russia and elsewhere who want to dominate their own neighborhoods More immediately, he threatens to replicate the American hubris that led to the invasion of Iraq in 2003. In Common Dreams, Kevin Martin wrote, no one voted for Trump's attack on Venezuela. Bogus assertions that Venezuela stole US Oil raise suspicions that this is not about narcotics trafficking but rather seizing resources such as oil and minerals. Moreover, other countries in the region are surely on high alert that they might be next in President Donald Trump's crosshairs, and U.S. forces deployed worldwide could be targeted for reprisals, martin said. Trump just announced, we are going to run the country until such a time as we can do a safe, proper, judicious transition. No one voted for that, nor has Congress authorized it on behalf of the American people. In less than a year in office, Trump has now attacked seven countries Somalia, Iran, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Nigeria and Venezuela, along with alleged drug boats at sea with at least 626 airstrikes, according to Military Times. So much for being a peace president or focusing on improving economic and social conditions for Americans, martin wrote. The United States history of lawless imperialism in the Western Hemisphere and beyond cannot be overstated or discounted. An international condemnation of this episode will presumably be strong and sustained. It is up to Congress and the American public to rein in a lawless executive branch intent on concocting distractions from the Epstein files and the anniversary of the January 6th insurrection and the miserably failed policies of the Trump administration. Alright, that is it for what the right and the left are saying. Which brings us to what Venezuelan writers are saying. Most Venezuelan writers welcome Maduro's ouster but say the country's future is still uncertain. Others say the challenges of rebuilding will be immense. The El Nacional editorial board wrote about the end of Maduro. It was a surgical operation completed in just over a couple of hours that laid bare the regime's inability not only to respond but to even detect an action against a central figure of the Venezuelan dictatorship. The board said the decisive operation against Maduro is the consequence of the military deployment announced by Trump in mid August of last year. Yesterday's outcome is proof that talks with regime leaders for his negotiated departure from power have collapsed. It is hoped that the coming hours and days will clarify the situation facing Venezuelans. It is an unfolding story in which Maduro was removed from the country and by nightfall was in the hands of American justice, the board wrote. The aspiration of Venezuelans who yesterday expressed their jubilation in different parts of the world over the fall of Maduro is for the recognition of the election results of July 28, the beginning of a process of democratic, social and economic recovery, the freeing of political prisoners and the gradual reinstitutionalization of the country's public life. In the New York Times, Colette Capriles explored what Venezuelans really want. For Venezuelans, our situation will not be fixed by Mr. Maduro's departure, let alone by a foreign occupying force. We are not a nation held together by a government or social contract, but a collection of individuals trapped in a struggle for survival. Replacing the man at the top will not dismantle the web of bosses, private loyalties, corrupt practices and institutional ruins that have replaced public life here, cabrilla said. Of course Venezuelans want change. We said as much in the 2024 elections, in which tallies gathered by thousands of volunteers showed an overwhelming opposition victory. For many, the demand for change is not ideological or limited to new leadership. Venezuelans want change in their quality of life. Mr. Trump has not said how the United States will begin to run Venezuela or when it will stop whatever is to come. The system that Mr. Maduro has overseen can't be dismantled overnight. His followers, longstanding Chavistas or armed opportunists, could very well mount a prolonged insurgency, the type of war in which the population is held hostage regardless of political preferences, kaprila said. It is very easy to create chaos and make a country ungovernable when the former institutions are already broken. No matter who is in power, the path to healing the anxiety, distrust and isolation that have flourished over the past decade is not clear. All right, let's head over to Isaac for his take.

[Isaac Sowell]

All right, that is it for with the left and the right, and some writers from abroad are saying, which brings us to my take. We woke up to a new world this week, and it's still hard to process the whole story, and it has more angles than I could ever cover in a single podcast. But I'm going to try to get to everything I can today. So here are 14 thoughts on the capture and arrest of Nicolas Maduro. Number one Maduro was an unequivocally repressive dictator the moment after he, quote unquote, won Venezuela's 2024 election, offered a chance to force him out of power by leveraging an audit of the actual election results against him. And I hoped then that a broad coalition of international leaders would do just that. They or we didn't. I want fewer rulers like Maduro in the world, and based on the widely reported real election results, most Venezuelans don't want him in power either. I'LL shed precisely zero tears for his arrests. And I hope a new leader brings forward a new set of values and a new vision for the Venezuelan people. But that future does not at all seem assured to me. Number two, this should be the final nail in the coffin for any notion of a Trump Doctrine. On foreign policy, there is no Trump doctrine. For nearly 10 years, American pundits have been trying to decipher one to make sense of Donald the Dove, who's also a strongman, who is also a Nobel Peace Prize candidate, who's also a warmonger, who's also a non interventionist. Some see a powerful leader restoring American strength on the global stage. Others see an anti establishment antithesis to George W. Bush, who is done dragging Americans into foreign wars. Part of Trump's brilliance is this incoherence. It's that in part he is all of these things which allows American voters to see whatever they want in him. It also really complicates the message for his most sycophantic supporters. It leaves them saying things like I'm as reflexively non interventionist as anyone can possibly be and I want America to rule over this hemisphere and exert its power for the good of our people. Which is something Matt Walsh said in a single tweet this week. Number three, Trump's foreign policy is guided by very few consistent principles, but a premium on personal relationships is one of them. This story provides two examples. Number one, Trump just pardoned Juan Orlando Hernandez, the former president of Honduras, who was tried and convicted for his role in one of the largest and most violent drug trafficking operations in the world. But Trump saw himself in Hernandez, who he thinks was unfairly prosecuted, so he set him free. Number two, the Washington Post is reporting that Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corinna Machado would be president right now if she had turned down 2025's Nobel Peace Prize, which Trump ardently sought. The report was based on two anonymous sources, so I wouldn't stake my credibility on its legitimacy. But it's completely plausible given the other examples we have of how personal slights and relationships often drive Trump's decision making. See also Zelensky, Putin, Bukele, Kim, Sheinbaum, Netanyahu, bin Salman, etc. Number four, though Maduro's overnight capture and extradition was shocking because of the spectacle of it all, it shouldn't have come as a surprise. I've been predicting for months in our newsletter, on the podcast on our YouTube channel that a land strike and a war were coming with Venezuela and that the only off ramp was Maduro stepping down, which he did not seem keen to do. I'm not happy to be right about those predictions, but they weren't particularly hard to make. The administration wasn't being shy. The question now is whether these strikes, this quote, unquote war, lasted for two hours and killed 80 people, or if we are in the beginning of a protracted conflict. Number five, I'm spending some time this month at my property in West Texas, where I'm recording this podcast right now, and it's one of the most remote places in the country where my neighbors spend more time working their various trades than following the news. Yet the capture of Maduro has broken through even here. Family and friends talk about it over meals. It comes up almost everywhere I go. Since I'm the quote, unquote news guy, I inevitably field questions about it when I run into friends. The most common one I'm getting right now is why? Why did we do this? And that's hard to answer. Number six, in the administration's telling, we took Maduro out because he is a drug kingpin who was killing Americans. But also we took him out because Venezuela stole our oil and now we're taking it back. But also it's to keep China or Russia or Iran out of the Western Hemisphere. But also maybe it's to put everyone else on notice to let leaders in Cuba and Colombia and also China and Iran know that Trump is just that crazy and they ought to respect it. Or maybe all of this was just to support democracy and our motivations were really the future prospects of the Venezuelan violent people. Again, here it'd be nice to know what the administration thinks, but deciphering it is impossible. Number seven, if I were Steel Manning for the administration, I'd argue simply that it's all of the above. All of this, the fight against drug smuggling, the message to China and Russia, the removal of a repressive dictator, the possibility of democracy, and the upside of controlling the oil together made such an extreme action worth the risk. That's an argument I could chew on for a bit, but it's not the one the administration is offering. And if it is, they aren't articulating it clearly or consistently. Number eight. Alternatively, maybe Trump just knew he could pull this off. The domestic politics work. Maduro is properly loathed by many Latinos residing in the United States. And perhaps enough people in Trump's orbit thought an overt demonstration of American power in the Global south justified the military risk. By all accounts, the military operation was a resounding Success pending more clarity about the accuracy and identity of the reported 80 people killed. In and out over quickly, Maduro brought back to the US alive and without any American soldiers killed. For some people, that might be most of what matters. Certainly it reflects extremely well on our military capability. For me though, the question of are we capable of removing Maduro? Was never really a question. The question is now what? And this is another question the administration does not seem to have a clear answer for. Number 10. The account from US officials is of a curiously perfect military operation. Spies fed reliable information to a special operations force that took out power in Caracas and then descended on Maduro's home, capturing him alive before he could lock himself inside a safe room. The troops maneuvers were all aided by rehearsals and a life size model of Maduro's fortress. Without being too conspiratorial, I think such a seamless operation invites reasonable questions about whether behind the scenes negotiating took place either with Maduro or the people around him. History suggests that if any backchanneling occurred, we'll learn more about it in the next six months to 50 years. But for now, we know only what we know, and it looks like a remarkable tactical success. Number 11 tactically, things going well is not proof positive that this move was smart or worth the risk. We found out after the fact that plans leaked to major newspapers which didn't print the story, per long held journalistic practices not to share information that could risk the lives of American soldiers. Even if Maduro or some members of top brass struck a behind the scenes deal to cooperate, the operation still carried significant risk and the fact that the first stage of this operation was successful does not guarantee that we've avoided a worst case scenario in the long run. Number 12 Trump says we are going to run the country for a bit, whatever that means, and that we're not afraid of boots on the ground. He might want to check with the American people on that one. Vice President Delsey Rodriguez, now sworn in as president, has been recognized by the Venezuelan armed forces, and Trump says she has no choice but to cooperate. Yet her public statements so far are a mix of defiant and pliant, and her background does not read like someone who will roll over for US interests. I'm not at all clear what her next moves are. At the same time, the administration suggests we're either getting ready to rebuild the country's oil infrastructure and administer elections Trump's definition of running the country, or we'll just keep applying pressure on Venezuela with sanctions and pushing it in the direction we've want Secretary of State Marco Rubio's definition of running the country. There is a very obvious tension between the administration's anti communist rhetoric and its apparent belief it can centrally plan another nation from afar. Number 13 if you made me bet all my personal belongings on the administration's true motivations here, cynically I'd bet the answer is oil. Venezuela is rich with the kind of oil we can refine. In the United States, Iran, Russia and China were already making inroads. As one Venezuelan celebrating in the streets put it, what do you think Russia and China wanted? The recipe for arepas? Trump has been talking more and more about the need to take back oil refineries he thinks Venezuela stole. This has, for what it's worth, also been the allegation from Venezuela that the Trump administration was coming for its natural resources. It's remarkable in the most dispiriting way possible to imagine that in 2026 the United States is still risking wars to protect and pursue its own oil interests. That Trump explicitly campaigned on non intervention for so long and now just says it out loud is only salt in the wound number 14. I have to ask, who wants this? Genuinely, if any tangible cost accumulates here, I suspect it is going to become a huge problem for the Trump administration politically. Just two months ago, the Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard declared the United States strategy of regime change over. Democratic lawmakers say that Marco Rubio and Pete Hegseth told them explicitly that they were not pursuing regime change in Venezuela. Whether you think this mission was unconstitutional or legally in bounds, with an unrestrained executive branch or simply a violation of international law, it certainly feels illegal and immoral. More instability in Venezuela could also mean more Venezuelan migrants, which means more Venezuelan refugees arriving at the US border, this time as a direct result of our own actions. If you pluck an American off the street and ask them about the prospects of kidnapping Venezuela's president and running the country for a bit, what percentage of people are going to express support? 2%? 5%? After running the campaign Trump ran, I have no idea how he sells any of this to the American American public. Successful mission or not, I for one have zero desire to see what's at the end of the road we just got on. We'll be right back after this quick break.

[News Reporter]

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[Isaac Sowell]

All right, that is it for my take today. We're skipping our reader question because we've got a jam packed podcast catching up on the news we missed, but I'm going to send it back to John for the rest of the show and I'll see you guys tomorrow. Happy New Year and have a good one. Peace.

[John Law]

Thanks, Isaac. Here's your under the Radar story for today, folks. In October, the Trump Administration announced a 25% tariff on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets and vanities that were set to increase to between 30% and 50% at the start of 2026. However, on December 31, the White House said the elevated tariffs would be delayed at least one year, according to a White House fact sheet. The pause reflects productive negotiations with trade partners on wood imports, though the base 25% tariff will remain in effect. While the administration says the tariffs are intended to bolster American industry, furniture prices have increased since they were implemented, with prices for kitchen and dining room furniture rising 4.6% in November compared to the year prior. ABC News has this story and there's a link in today's episode description. Well, folks, we've heard over and over from people that the numbers section doesn't seem to translate too well for people on the podcast side. So we're going to do a little experiment and take the numbers section out of the podcast, at least for a little bit, and see what the response is from people, whether or not that works out better for them in the flow of the podcast. If you feel strongly one way or the other, please write in to me johnadtangle.com that's j o nangle.com. and last but not least, our have a nice day story. On the slopes of Italy's Mount Girifalco, one rural village experienced a a 30 year first in the birth of a child. The baby, named Lara, has become a symbol of hope for a town that has undergone drastic depopulation in recent years, and for a country with a fertility rate measured at 1.18 in 2024, one of the lowest in the European Union. People who didn't even know that Pagliara de Marsi existed have come only because they heard about Lara. The baby's mother, Cinzia Trabuco, said at just nine months old, she's famous. The Guardian has this story and there's a link in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, please go to readtangle.com, where you can sign up for a newsletter membership, podcast membership, or a bundled membership that gets you a discount on both. We'll be right back here tomorrow. For Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off. Have a great day, y'.

[Olivia]

All.

[John Law]

Peace.

[Isaac Sowell]

Our executive editor and founder is me, Isaac Sowell, and our executive producer, Executive producer is John Lowell. Today's episode was edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Our editorial staff is led by Managing editor Ari Weitzman with Senior editor Will Kaback and associate editors Audrey Moorhead, Lindsey Knuth and Bailey Saul. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. To learn more about Tangle and to sign up for a membership, please visit our [e-mail].

[Olivia]

The youth mental health crisis is growing and social media is a major driver. Kids are spending up to nine hours a day on screens, often unsupervised. And studies show a direct link to anxiety, depression and even suicidal thoughts. That's where Gab comes in. Gab offers safe phones and watches with no Internet or social media. Just the right tech at the right time. From Smart Watch for young kids to Advanced Parent Managed Phones for teens, Gab keeps kids connected safely. Visit gab.com getgab and use code getgab for a special offer. That's G-A-B-B.com getgab Gab tech in steps independence for them Peace of mind for parents hey, it's Olivia from Ollie. I gotta tell you, I saw when you asked AI about probiotics. No judgment, but I think Olli can help. Probiotics are the good bacteria that support your digestive and immune system. Just two gummies a day to bring balance to your gut. So save the AI for drafting that reply to your ex. That's gonna take guts. Go to o l l y.com to learn more. These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. Ollie thy ticket, lady Jennifer of Coolidge. Well, many thanks, good sir. Here is my Discover card. They accept Discover at Renaissance fairs? Yeah, they do. Here. Discover is accepted at the places I love to shop.

[Isaac Sowell]

Get it with the times.

[Olivia]

With the times.

[Isaac Sowell]

You're playing the loot.

[Olivia]

Yeah, and it sounds pretty good, right?

[John Law]

Discover is accepted at 99% of places.

[News Reporter]

That take credit cards nationwide.

[Isaac Sowell]

Based on the February 2025 Nielsen report.