Tangle Podcast Summary: "The U.S. Captures Maduro"

Host: Isaac Saul
Date: January 5, 2026

Episode Overview

In this urgent, in-depth episode of Tangle, host Isaac Saul investigates the stunning U.S. military operation that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro. The episode breaks down what is known so far about the mission, the charges against Maduro, international and political reactions, and the uncertain road ahead for both Venezuela and U.S. foreign policy. Saul brings together perspectives from the left, right, and Venezuelan writers, then caps the show with his own multi-layered analysis of the operation’s justifications and future ramifications.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. News Recap & Context

[03:46–08:34] John Law, News Roundup

• The show recaps other major New Year stories (HHS fraud, National Guard deployments, ACA subsidies expiring) but zeroes in on the "biggest story": the U.S. military operation to capture Maduro.
• Background on Maduro’s rule:
  • Over a decade as a repressive leader.
  • Claimed a disputed election victory in 2024.
  • Widely unrecognized by international community; the U.S. considers him illegitimate.

2. The Operation: What Happened

[08:34–12:40] Main Story & Details

• On early Saturday morning, U.S. Delta forces raided Maduro’s home in Caracas, capturing him and his wife in a swift operation aided by CIA intelligence.
  • "By 3:30am he and his wife were in American custody." ([08:38])
• Charges filed:
  • Narco-terrorism, conspiracy, cocaine importation, possession of machine guns, etc.
  • Indicted in the Southern District of New York.
• U.S. casualties:
  • No troops killed; six injured in action.
  • Venezuelan casualties: At least 80 people, including military and civilians, killed according to local officials.
• President Trump announces the U.S. will “assume control of Venezuela until such a time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition.”
  • U.S. Oil companies to "move in and start making money for the country."
  • Military quarantine on oil exports planned.
  • Trump floats possibility of action in Cuba, Colombia, Greenland.
• Venezuelan Vice President sworn in as interim president but seems to cooperate (partially) with U.S. authorities.
• Senate to vote on a War Powers resolution to check the White House’s further military action.

Arguments Across The Spectrum

What the Right is Saying

[14:56–17:30]

• Generally supportive of the operation, lauding Trump’s decisive action.
• Parallels with the 1989 Noriega operation in Panama are drawn—historical precedent for deposing illegitimate, criminal foreign leaders in American “backyard.”
  • Washington Examiner:
    "President Donald Trump took decisive and justified action...enabled special forces to seize and detain dictator Nicolas Maduro...the entire Western Hemisphere is now safer with him in custody." ([14:56])
  • Argues that operation fits into the “Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine.”
• Fox News, Jonathan Turley:
  • Trump didn’t need congressional approval—presidents have used lethal force against foreign actors before (even US citizens: Obama and Anwar al-Awlaki).
  • Noriega’s legal precedent: no immunity when deposed and not recognized.

What the Left is Saying

[17:31–20:10]

• Opposes the operation as illegal, reckless, and potentially disastrous.
• New York Times Editorial Board:
  • Maduro’s regime was brutal, but U.S. intervention is likely to do more harm than good.
    "He is pushing our country toward an international crisis without valid reasons...By proceeding without any semblance of international legitimacy, valid legal authority, or domestic endorsement, Mr. Trump risks providing justification for authoritarians in China, Russia and elsewhere." ([17:50])
  • Operation threatens to repeat the mistakes of Iraq and other regime-change disasters.
• Common Dreams, Kevin Martin:
  • Calls out “bogus” allegations about oil as a cover for resource seizure, not justice or democracy.
  • Points to rising American military aggression under Trump.
    “No one voted for Trump's attack on Venezuela...nor has Congress authorized it on behalf of the American people.” ([19:30])
• Sees the move as illegal under both U.S. and international law; urges Congressional intervention.

What Venezuelan Writers are Saying

[20:11–23:21]

• Most express relief at the removal of Maduro but stress that Venezuela’s problems are far from over.
• El Nacional Editorial Board:
  • Hails the operation as a “surgical” blow against a dictatorship that failed to defend itself.
  • Real hope is for democratic restoration and freeing of political prisoners.
  • “The aspiration of Venezuelans…is for the recognition of the election results of July 28, the beginning of a process of democratic, social and economic recovery.” ([21:46])
• NYT, Colette Capriles:
  • Warns that “foreign occupying force” is not a solution.
  • Deep-seated corruption and dysfunction will not be solved by removing Maduro alone.
  • “For Venezuelans, our situation will not be fixed by Mr. Maduro's departure, let alone by a foreign occupying force.” ([22:22])
  • Fears of insurgency, chaos, and prolonged instability.

Host Isaac Saul’s Take

[23:21–34:40]: “14 Thoughts on the Capture and Arrest of Nicolás Maduro”

Saul offers a nuanced and critical rapid-fire analysis:

Key Points:

1. On Maduro:

   • "Maduro was an unequivocally repressive dictator...I'll shed precisely zero tears for his arrest." ([23:30])
   • The real results of the 2024 election showed opposition victory.

2. No Real 'Trump Doctrine':

   • Saul criticizes persistent attempts to discern Trump’s foreign policy:
     "For nearly 10 years, American pundits have been trying to decipher one..." ([23:59])
   • Trump is all things—dove, strongman, warmonger—depending on the moment.

3. Personal Relationships Drive Trump Decisions:

   • Trump recently pardoned convicted Honduran ex-president Juan Orlando Hernández.
   • Allegedly influenced Venezuelan opposition leadership choices over personal slights.

4. Predictable but Shocking:

   • Saul predicted military escalation for months;
     "...the only off ramp was Maduro stepping down, which he did not seem keen to do." ([24:48])
   • Questions whether this was just a surgical operation or start of a broader conflict.

5. Why Did the U.S. Do This?

   • Saul notes confusion—including personally:
     “The most common one I’m getting right now is why? Why did we do this? And that's hard to answer.” ([25:08])

6–7. Possible Motives:

• Could be drug smuggling, oil, regional geopolitics, warning to adversaries, support for democracy—or all at once.
• The administration offers no clear, consistent rationale.

8. Domestic Political Gains:
   • Removing Maduro is likely popular among certain Latino U.S. communities.
   • The military operation itself was a tactical success, but:
     “The question is now what? And this is another question the administration does not seem to have a clear answer for.” ([26:41])

9–10. Impossibly Smooth Operation?

• Saul wonders if there were secret back-channel deals.
• “...a seamless operation invites reasonable questions about whether behind the scenes negotiating took place either with Maduro or the people around him.” ([27:10])

11–12. Success Doesn’t Equal Wisdom:

• The first phase worked—but risks and long-term fallout are unknown.
• Tension between new Venezuelan leadership (Vice President Rodriguez) and U.S. vision for Venezuela.

13. It’s Probably About Oil:

• If forced to “bet,” Saul says U.S. oil interests were the biggest motivator.
• “It’s remarkable in the most dispiriting way possible to imagine that in 2026 the United States is still risking wars to protect and pursue its own oil interests.”

14. Who Wants This?

• Saul questions whether any Americans support such drastic measures, predicting possible political blowback and further migration/refugee crises.

"If you pluck an American off the street and ask them about the prospects of kidnapping Venezuela’s president and running the country for a bit, what percentage of people are going to express support? 2%? 5%?...Successful mission or not, I for one have zero desire to see what’s at the end of the road we just got on." ([33:54])

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• "By 3:30am he and his wife were in American custody."
  — News Reporter ([08:38])
• "President Donald Trump took decisive and justified action... the entire Western Hemisphere is now safer with him in custody."
  — Washington Examiner Editorial Board ([14:56])
• "By proceeding without any semblance of international legitimacy, valid legal authority or domestic endorsement, Mr. Trump risks providing justification for authoritarians in China, Russia and elsewhere..."
  — NYT Editorial Board ([17:50])
• "For Venezuelans, our situation will not be fixed by Mr. Maduro's departure, let alone by a foreign occupying force."
  — Colette Capriles, NYT ([22:22])
• "The question is now what? And this is another question the administration does not seem to have a clear answer for."
  — Isaac Saul ([26:41])
• "If you pluck an American off the street and ask them about the prospects of kidnapping Venezuela's president and running the country...what percentage of people are going to express support? 2%? 5%?"
  — Isaac Saul ([33:54])

Important Segments & Timestamps

• [03:46] — News story roundup and introduction to Venezuela main story
• [08:34] — Eyewitness and official accounts of the raid on Maduro
• [09:03] — DOJ announcement and Trump’s comments on interim control of Venezuela
• [14:56] — ‘What the right is saying’
• [17:31] — ‘What the left is saying’
• [20:11] — ‘What Venezuelan writers are saying’
• [23:21] — Isaac Saul’s ‘14 Thoughts on the Capture and Arrest of Nicolás Maduro’
• [33:54] — Saul’s closing concern and criticism

Conclusion

This episode presents a balanced, non-partisan sweep of the U.S. operation that captured Nicolás Maduro—highlighting legal, practical, and moral uncertainties. The right casts the mission as necessary law enforcement and a muscular defense of U.S. interests, while the left sees a reckless, illegal act with echoes of American imperial overreach. Venezuelan voices are grateful for Maduro's ouster but deeply anxious about U.S. occupation and the long path ahead. Saul, in his signature candid style, probes all motives, acknowledges the tactical success, and warns without certainty that the future for Venezuelans and U.S. foreign policy remains perilous and unclear.

For further reading and updates:

• Visit readtangle.com
• See linked articles from the Washington Examiner, NYT, El Nacional, and more in episode notes