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- [00:00]
Ryan Reynolds
Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile with a message for everyone paying big wireless way too much. Please, for the love of everything good in this world, stop with Mint. You can get premium wireless for just $15 a month. Of course, if you enjoy overpaying, no judgments. But that's weird. Okay, one judgment anyway. Give it a try. @mintmobile.com Switch upfront payment of $45 for 3 month plan equivalent to $15 per.
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Isaac Saul
Month Required intro rate first 3 months.
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Ryan Reynolds
Only, then full price plan options available, taxes and fees extra.
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Isaac Saul
See full terms@mintmobile.com Imagine a world without.
- [00:33]
Eugenio Derbez
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- [01:47]
Isaac Saul
From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle.
- [02:04]
Ari Weitzman
Good morning, good afternoon and good evening and welcome to the Tangle podcast. The place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking and a little bit of my take. I'm your host, Isaac Saul and on today's episode we've got something a little bit different for you. We are covering the trade war, but I'm passing the mic over to Ari Weitzman, our managing editor. For my take. He had some thoughts. I thought he wrote a great little breakdown of what was happening with some personal touch that I felt was valuable for our readers and listeners to hear. So I'm excited for that. That means we're gonna start the pod with John breaking down the story and then Ari will grab the take and I'll be back for your questions answered with that, I'm gonna send it over to John Lowell.
- [02:53]
Isaac Saul
Thanks, Isaac, and welcome everybody. Here are your quick hits for today. First up, the Trump administration announced it would lift its pause on intelligence sharing and military aid to Ukraine following talks between US And Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia in which Ukraine accepted a US proposal for a 30 day ceasefire in its war with Russia. Separately, US special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff traveled to Qatar to meet with Israeli and Hamas officials to discuss extending the current ceasefire agreement between the sides. Number two, the Department of Education said it will eliminate roughly 50% of its workforce. Education Secretary Linda McMahon said the firings are the first step in a planned shutdown of the agency. Number three, the House passed a funding bill that, if approved by the Senate, will avert a government shutdown on Friday and fund the government through September. The bill passed the house in a 217 to 213 vote, mostly along party lines, with one Republican voting against it and one Democrat voting for it. Number four, the consumer price index rose 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.8% on an annual basis, lower than economists expectations. Core CPI, which includes food and energy prices, rose 0.2% monthly and 3.1% annually. At number five, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte was arrested in Manila and transported to the Netherlands to stand trial at the International Criminal Court. Duterte is charged with crimes against humanity for measures taken as part of his anti drug campaign while in office.
- [04:39]
Ryan Reynolds
President Trump just announced that he will.
- [04:41]
Isaac Saul
Double the planned tariffs on Canadian steel.
- [04:45]
Ryan Reynolds
And aluminum and at this hour Wall.
- [04:48]
Isaac Saul
Street reacting to this breaking news. On Tuesday, President Donald Trump threatened to double his planned tariff tariffs on all Canadian steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50%. Trump's announcement followed Ontario Premier Doug Ford's decision to impose a 25% surcharge on electricity the province supplies to 1.5 million American homes and businesses in response to Trump's tariff threats. However, on Wednesday, Ford announced he would suspend the electricity surcharge after agreeing with U.S. secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick to discuss a renewed U.S. mexico Canada Agreement on trade. The announcement prompted Trump to rescind his threat to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, although the two sides backed off their respective threats. Trump's 25% steel and aluminum tariffs went into effect on Wednesday, prompting immediate retaliation by Canada and the European Union. Canada announced roughly $20 billion in levies on U.S. steel, aluminum and other goods, while the EU responded with around $28 billion in tariffs on American goods. For context, President Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports and a lower 10% levy on Canadian energy imports in February, but delayed them for one month after the countries recommitted to existing promises to enhance security at their respective borders with the U.S. the tariffs briefly went into effect on Thursday, but Trump partially paused them again for all imports that fall under the USMCA until April 2. In response, Canada has also levied 25% tariffs on $30 billion in goods imported from the United states, including orange juice, peanut butter, coffee, appliances and more. You can read our past coverage on tariffs with a link in today's episode Description Before Wednesday's reversal, Premier Ford said the electricity surcharge would continue until Trump lifted the threat of tariffs and could be increased. I will not hesitate to increase this charge. If the United States escalates, I will not hesitate to shut the electricity off completely, ford said. Ontario provides electricity to neighboring US States Minnesota, New York and Michigan, though each state purchases a relatively small amount from the province. Trump criticized the decision, posting on social media that Canada would pay a financial price for this so big that it will be read about in the history books for many years to come. Amid the intensifying threats, the US Stock market has seen sustained losses. On Tuesday, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 1.14%, the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.18% and the S&P 500 0.75%. Furthermore, on Monday, the Dow and the S&P 500 had their worst day since December 18, while the Nasdaq had its worst day since September 13, 2022. European stocks have also dropped as concerns about the impacts of tariffs on global trade took hold. In response to the market volatility, President Trump told Fox News Sunday Morning Futures that the country will see a period of transition as his policies take effect. What we're doing is very big. We're bringing wealth back to America. That's a big thing. It takes a little time, but I think it should be great for us, trump said. Today, we'll survey arguments from the left, right and Canadian commentators about the escalating trade war between the United States and Canada. Then managing editor Ari Weitzman will give his take.
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Ari Weitzman
We'll be right back after this quick break.
- [08:30]
John Lowell
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- [08:54]
Ryan Reynolds
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- [08:57]
Isaac Saul
Visit boostmobile.com for full terms.
- [08:59]
Mark Meadows
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- [09:38]
Isaac Saul
All right, first up, let's start with what the right is saying. The right is mixed on Trump's latest tariffs moves. Though many maintain that his strategy will benefit America in the long run, some say his focus on tariffs is distracting from more important economic policies. In Newsweek, former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows argued Trump's aluminum and steel tariffs will put American workers first. Our adversaries have taken advantage of the weakness of Biden and Harris to not only dump aluminum and steel into our market, but also by funneling supplies into border countries such as Canada and Mexico. Just as illegal migrants were flooding across our southern border bringing drugs and crime. Until President Trump took office, Canada and Mexico are allowing foreign aluminum producers to circumvent trade restrictions and flood the US Market. Meadows Ultimately, American aluminum workers and their families feel the pain when Canada, Mexico and other countries don't play by the rules. President Trump is done subsidizing Canada. The beneficiaries of that America first trade policy are the hundreds of thousands of manufacturing workers whose jobs have been saved. As President Trump said in his address before the joint session of Congress, tariffs are not just about protecting American jobs, they're about protecting the soul of our country, meadows said. America is stronger when its aluminum industry is strong. America is stronger when its steel industry is strong. And thanks to President Trump, 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel imports, with no exceptions, will make America strong again. In the New York Post, Steve Forbes and Stephen Moore called for tax cuts before tariffs. President Trump has focused more of his attention of late on tariffs rather than tax cuts. That's a mistake. He should shift now toward taxes to head off any slowdown in this critical part of his economic agenda. Every time the president announces a new tariff, the stock market takes a hit, forbes and Moore wrote. Manufacturers here at home have complained that the constantly changing tariff policies are causing supply chain problems that could even lead to plant layoffs. Trump is right that as the world's only economic superpower, we can use American leverage to pressure other nations to enact policies that are in the security and economic interests of the United States, forbes Amore said. But given the wobbly economy, now is not the time to risk even short term pain. The longer Congress delays in getting the tax cut done, the longer it will take to feel the economic upside. The tax cuts first strategy will help the president get better trade deals long term. Alright, that is it for what the right is saying. Which brings us to what the left is saying. The left criticizes Trump's threats to Canada, but many say each side must work to salvage the relationship. Others warn more economic turmoil is ahead. The Washington Post editorial board wrote canada and America must go back to getting along. Tit for tat rhetoric out of Ottawa and Washington poses grave dangers to their economies. The two countries exchange nearly $1 trillion worth of goods each year. Each is the other's largest trading partner after Trump declined to rule out a recession over the weekend. The Nasdaq dropped 4% on Monday, its largest one day decline since 2022, and the Dow fell nearly 900 points. The board said the dizzying roller coaster ride with across the board tariffs on Canada and Mexico postponed for a month, is deepening uncertainty and undermining consumer confidence and chilling business investment in the United States. All of this willful blindness is self destructive. Trump seems convinced that decoupling from Canada would somehow lead to a renaissance of domestic manufacturing. But this reflects a fundamental misunderstanding about the nature of supply chains and U.S. reliance on Canadian raw materials, the board wrote. It is in the best interests of both countries to lower the temperature and figure out a way to stop tariffs from going into effect. The leader should get on the phone and agree on rules of engagement to prevent permanent damage to their country's relationship. In cnn, Stephen Collinson said the stock market plunge shows Trump's disruption can't be contained. Trump's voters love his instinct for disruption and volatility, but with consumer confidence softening, hiring slowing and fears of a recession growing, the last thing the economy needs is a president whipping up uncertainty, collinson wrote. Trump's apparent acknowledgment on Fox News that his policies, including tariffs, could cause a period of transition for the economy was also disturbing, since it appears to indicate that short term pain is in the offing and that he is prepared for a country weary of high prices for groceries and housing to endure it. The president has argued that his tariff policies will quickly bring in billions of dollars to the United States and rejected the economic logic that consumers will pay for them in higher prices. His aim is a laudable restoring the US Industrial base that has ripped the heart of Rust Belt manufacturing areas, Collinson said. But achieving this goal would mean reversing decades of globalization, a task that would take far longer than Trump's remaining years in the White House. This puts Trump's comments about a transition period for the economy in a new light. Will Americans experience discomfort until the policy yields results? All right, that is it for what the right and the left are saying. Which brings us to what Canadian writers are saying. Canadian writers disparage Trump's actions, and most say their country must hold firm against U.S. pressure. Some suggest Canada should recognize the reality of its position and seek a negotiated resolution with the Trump administration, the Globe and Mail editorial board wrote. Canada must hold its ground on tariff threats. Canada and other countries in Mr. Trump's crosshairs need to ignore what comes out of the president's mouth and quietly yet firmly impose dollar for dollar retaliatory tariffs and continue to broaden their trade partnerships and shore up their own economies, come what may, the board said. Everyone points out that Mr. Trump's tariff games will dramatically slow the US economy and are bad for US manufacturers and consumers. But the president seems to think that they are good for Donald Trump. So forget fentanyl, forget immigration, forget trade deficits, forget everything and anything Mr. Trump suggests is his reason for imposing, removing and reimposing tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China and eventually Europe and the rest of the world, and instead assume that Mr. Trump's strategic chaos is not a means to an end, but the end itself. The more instability he causes, the more power he holds and the more his need to broadcast that power is fed, the board wrote. That in turn leaves dollar for dollar retaliation as the only sensible option. It is a fixed threat that doesn't depend on Mr. Trump's next announcement. It's not about what is targeted or what is being demanded. It is only about how much is targeted and amount set by Mr. Trump himself. In the Hub, Shawn Speier argued Canada needs stronger, not weaker, ties to the US Moving forward. All of this turmoil will eventually culminate in the renegotiation of the United States, Mexico, Canada agreement under the threat of imposing tariffs, withdrawal from the agreement or some combination of the two, speier said. Canadian policymakers need to be ready and they should be devising a renegotiation strategy over the next 30 days that accepts that any negotiation is going to be suboptimal. It will be conducted under a state of duress, and the lesson of the past weeks is that there's no guarantee that Trump will ultimately honor an agreement. Yet it's still in the country's interest to try to maintain a free trade agreement with the U.S. we must therefore have a clear understanding of our own priorities in advance of the USMCA's renegotiations the administration's lack of clarity on what it precisely wants can actually be an advantage. We have a chance to shape the negotiations and fill in the blanks of America's policy goals by exercising first mover advantage by setting out a new vision for North American economic and security partnership spirit wrote Such a proposal must be cognizant of the administration's understanding of the end of unipolarity and the requisite adjustments to America's economic and foreign policy will need to bring more to the relationship. All right, let's head over to Ari for his take.
- [18:18]
Ryan Reynolds
Thanks, John Isaac so start the take today by talking a little bit about President Donald Trump. So when Trump acts, he doesn't let off a lot of warning signals that he's about to. He just acts. Trump is sudden, he's capricious, he's transactional, retributive, vengeful, active, often self contradictory. But I don't think he's unpredictable. When Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico last month, that was sudden but not unpredictable. When Trump reconciled with Canada and Mexico, then delayed the tariffs for a month, that was transactional but not unpredictable. When Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced his province would be putting a tariff on exported energy to neighboring US States, Trump doubling down on his announced tariffs was capricious and retributive, but not unpredictable. When Ford softened and then Trump softened, well, you get the idea. So a couple things we know about Trump he's been consistently serious about using tariffs to increase domestic manufacturing and decrease trade deficits to make the US Totally economically independent. We don't know how high they'll be, how much they'll apply to, how long they'll last, and if they'll ever really truly come or just remain a consistent threat. But we know tariffs are going to be a heavily used tool in President Trump's toolkit. For Americans, the Trump theory of tariffs and economic independence sparks a serious debate. Personally, I find the game theory argument that trying to win every interaction we have is actually less beneficial to us than cooperativism, like trying to get a slightly smaller piece of a much larger pie with the countries we're negotiating with. But I understand how economic independence is a security benefit. What I don't think most Americans realize, though, is how differently the story is playing out in Canada. It's not some debate there. Canadians are incensed. The Trump trade war is the number one story in the Great White north, and it could be seismic. Personally, I was brought up in a Pittsburgh sports household, which made me a huge hockey fan. Over the past month I've read story after story about Canadians booing the national anthem at hockey games, which is a big deal. Over the past month, I've read story after story about Canadians booing the U.S. national anthem at hockey games, which is a big deal because for a long time Canadians would sing along to the Star Spangled Banner. Consider how angered the famously even tempered Canadians would have to be to boo Wayne Gretzky at a hockey game, all because he wore a MAGA hat during the presidential campaign and has been silent about Trump's tough talk. Rather than pressure Canada into folding to the US on trade or even something as extreme as annexation, it looks like Trump is having the opposite of his intended effect. It was almost a foregone conclusion just a month ago that Canada's Liberal Party, formerly led by Justin Trudeau, would be passing the baton to conservatives when Canada holds its next elections. However, since Trump took office, conservatives 25 point polling lead has evaporated. 25 point lead evaporated. Can you imagine how significant an event would have to be to flip support like that in the US with so much news coming every day, it becomes really hard to see how talking tough on our neighbor and historic ally plays in public. However, we're starting to get some glimpses. Polling from Canada's Angus Reid International shows that only 22% of US voters believe Trump is serious about annexing Canada, and 80% of voters want the US to treat Canada as friendly or as a trusted ally. What's more, over half of US Respondents weren't even following this story. Here are some facts that may compel them to start paying attention, though. The US Imports more steel from Canada than any other country, and it gets the majority of of its imported aluminum from Canada. Steel is an enormous part of the construction industry, and aluminum is used heavily in transportation and construction. CEOs of aluminum companies have lobbied against tariffs, while CEOs of US steel companies, which are sitting on warehouses full of inventory, are asking Trump to hold the line. Housing construction is still rebounding from pandemic lows, and home purchases are dipping at the same time. Lumber commodity prices are spiking, new car prices are expected to bump, and consumer confidence is cratering. I'm not an economist, but I don't think you need a degree in economics to see that the standoff with Canada is going to hurt consumers, especially in the automobile and housing markets. I spent a lot of time above saying that Trump is predictable. The markets obviously disagree, or they just see where this is going and they don't like it. Investors and consumers alike are factoring a lot of uncertainty into their decision making right now. The s and P500, which was up 4% at this point in Trump's first term, is now down over 6% since his inauguration. Consumer confidence is way down. Small business confidence is way down. Unemployment and jobs are flat. Meanwhile, the 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel imports went into effect today, prompting reciprocal tariffs out of the eu. Anecdotally, I can see this playing out right now. I live in Vermont, where tourism is a huge industry and the impact of Canadians canceling their U.S. trips is a major story. I have neighbors trying to build homes who are utterly demoralized by the commodity spikes. My wife and I are trying to build kitchen shelves right now, and we're blown away by the increase in prices and simple wooden brackets. This is something that I'm sure if I'm feeling it, other people are too. So what do you get when prices are up and demand is low? Market instability, or as Trump has put it, pain. I'm sure a portion of Trump's base will feel energized by Trump sticking up for US Interests. But if prices go up and this story sticks, I don't see how it does anything to help Republicans. The whole bet from the Trump administration is that this economic pain in the near future will create the long term conditions for domestic manufacturing to increase. That could actually happen. February's inflation report just came out, and even with concerns about tariffs, it looks like inflation is cooling. The conditions could be just right for a drop in interest rates that spur new construction and an investment in US Manufacturing. We should all be rooting for that to happen, but it will take a while for us to get there, if it does at all. In the meantime, Trump is asking voters to withstand a lot of pain, and that could put the Republican Party on a rocky road over the next few years. There's an interesting historical corollary for all this. In 1890, Democrats, led then by Representative William McKinley, a person Trump has spoken about glowingly in public, implemented tariffs on the then young nation of Canada in an attempt to pressure them to join the United States. That backfired, causing a stir of nationalism in Canada and creating rising prices in the United States. Then a frustrated US Electorate made Republican candidate Grover Cleveland the first ever president to serve non consecutive terms. If you listen to it closely, it sounds like history is rhyming. All right, that's it for my take. I'm going to pass it back over to Isaac for your questions answered we'll.
- [26:35]
Ari Weitzman
Be right back after this quick break.
- [26:41]
Mark Meadows
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- [27:13]
Isaac Saul
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- [27:50]
Ari Weitzman
All right, that is it for the My take from Ari Weitzman today, which brings us to your questions answered. This one's from Nick in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Nick said, could we make Social Security solvent if we just raise the cap on maximum earnings? I saw that Bernie had proposed this at one point and it makes sense, but of course it was shot down. I think if you're lucky enough to earn over $176,000 a year, the rest of your earnings above that doesn't get Social Security tax. Seems crazy to be losing out on that income for something that supports so many elderly folks. So first, just heads up that the cap on taxation for Social Security earnings is actually $176,100. But does it seem crazy to miss out on every dollar over that cap, which are dollars that the income earner needs the least? Yes, I think it does actually. This may be something of a rarity, but this question actually has a pretty direct answer. You can make Social Security solvent by slowing the benefit growth for the top half of all earners and by taxing all wages above $400,000. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget's Interactive Social Security tool is actually really fun to play around with. You can just propose these policies in the tool and then it'll spit out exactly what happens to the long term health of Social Security. And it works really well. Of course there are plenty of other ways to reform the program. You can raise the retirement age, limit the cost of living a job, adjustments means test payouts, increase requirements for receiving disability insurance, allow Social Security to be invested in the stock market, or just not pay it out to the top half of income earners at all. However, since you asked us, a combination of increasing or eliminating the earning cap and giving fewer benefits to the people who don't need them seems to me like probably the best answer. All right, that is it for your questions answered. I'm going to send it back to John for the rest of the podcast and I'll see you guys tomorrow. Have a good one. Peace.
- [29:53]
Isaac Saul
Thanks Isaac. Here's your under the Radar story for today, folks. A recent report from a Swiss company found that only seven countries met the World Health Organization's air quality standards in 2024. The report measured the presence of particles called PM2.5, which the WHO said should be less than 5 micrograms per cubic meter to maintain healthy air quality. Australia, New Zealand, Estonia, Iceland, and several small island states were among the countries to meet this standard. Conversely, the countries with the highest PM2.5 levels were Chad, Bangladesh, Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and India. While the report highlighted the challenges of maintaining healthy air quality in most countries, the share of cities meeting PM2.5 standards rose from 9% in 2023 to 17% in 2024. The Guardian has this story and there's a link in today's episode Description all right, next up is our numbers section. The number of transmission connections Ontario has with New York, Michigan and Minnesota, respectively, is 7, 4 and 1, according to Bloomberg. The percentage of New York's total electricity purchased from Canada in 2023 is 4.4%. The total cost of the electricity purchased by Minnesota Power from Ontario in 2024 was $310,000. The number of economists polled across the United States, Canada and Mexico who say the risk of a recession in their respective economies has increased is 70 out of 74, according to a March 2025 Reuters survey. The percentage of U.S. adults who support and oppose, respectively, a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports to the U.S. is 35% and 46%, according to a March 2025 Economist YouGov poll. And the percentage of Democrats and Republicans, respectively, who support a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports to the US is 11% and 64%. And last but not least, our have a nice day story. A Halal Mediterranean Grill in Ontario, Canada, was struggling to break even when TikToker Zachary Duraniawski, placed an order for 1000 shawarmas. Before learning Duraniawski's plan, the restaurant's owner, Hussain, offered to lower the menu price from $9.99 to $6 per shawarma. But when Hussain learned that Dariniawski planned to give the shawarmas to underprivileged families at sunset for Ramadan, Hussein decided to give the large order to Darreniaski for free. The next day, the Tiktoker returned to the restaurant and gave Hussein a $50,000 tip crowdfunded by his followers. Good. Good Good has this story, and there's a link in today's episode description. All right, everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, Please go to readtangle.com where you can sign up for a newsletter membership, podcast membership, or a bundled membership that gets you a discount on both. We'll be right back here tomorrow. For Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off. Have a great day, y'all. Peace.
- [33:08]
Ari Weitzman
Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul, and edited and engineered by Duke Thomas. Our script is edited by Ari Weitzman, Will Kaback, Bailey Saul, and Sean Brady. The logo for our podcast was made by Magdalena Bokova, who is also our social media manager. The music for the podcast podcast was produced by Diet75. And if you're looking for more from Tangle, please go check out our website@readtangle.com that's readtangle.com.
- [33:45]
Ryan Reynolds
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Steve Forbes
That sounds like a threat.
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Ryan Reynolds
Then how do you think we should say it?
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Ari Weitzman
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Ryan Reynolds
I don't know.
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Isaac Saul
Until your ultimate demise.
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Ryan Reynolds
What if we just say forever? Okay, $25 a month.
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Isaac Saul
Forever.
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Ari Weitzman
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