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Brooke Devart
From executive producer Isaac Saul. This is Tangle Foreign.
Isaac Saul
Good afternoon and good evening and welcome to the Tango Podcast, a place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'M your host, Isaac Saul, and on today's episode, we're going to be talking about Trump's tariffs. That's right. Liberation Day is upon us. It came yesterday on Wednesday, April 2nd. Today is Thursday, April 3rd. And we are going to jump into exactly what just happened, what it means. I think maybe the biggest story so far of the Trump administration in terms of the breadth of the impact and the potential that is to change life for Americans. I mean, this is really important stuff. So we're going to talk about exactly what happened, share some arguments for and against from the left and the right, and then I'm going to give my take with that. I'm going to pass it over to John for today's main topic and I'll be back for my take.
John Law
Thanks, Isaac, and welcome, everybody. Here are your quick hits for today. First up, Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz announced that the country is expanding operations in Gaza as part of an offensive that aims to capture extensive territory that will be added to the state of Israel's security areas. Separately, Russia's President Vladimir Putin called up 160,000 men aged 18 to 30 to serve in the army, the country's largest round of conscription since 2011. A New York judge dismissed the corruption charges against Mayor Eric Adams following the Justice Department's move to end his case. However, the case was dismissed with prejudice, meaning it could not be brought up again at a later date. Separately, Adams announced that he would not participate in the Democratic mayoral primary and seek re election as an independent. Number three, the Senate voted 52 to 45 to confirm Matthew Whitaker, who served as acting attorney general during President Trump's first term as US Ambassador to NATO. Number four, the Supreme Court heard arguments in a case brought by Planned Parenthood challenging a South Carolina law that blocks clinics that perform abortions from participating in Medicare. Separately, the Supreme Court unanimously ruled that the Food and Drug Administration acted lawfully when it blocked two vaping companies from marketing fruity and dessert flavored liquids for their products. And number five, severe storms are impacting large parts of the central United States, with high winds, flash flooding and tornadoes expected to continue throughout the week. Starting tomorrow, the United States will implement reciprocal tariffs on other nations.
Isaac Saul
It's been a long time since we.
John Law
Even thought of that.
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Take a look at the markets this morning taking a plunge as investors react to the sweeping tariffs. The White House announced yesterday the Dow, The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ were all down more than 3% at one point.
John Law
On Wednesday, President Donald Trump announced a 10% across the board tariff on all US trading partners as well as heightened rates on specific countries. The 10% baseline tariff is set to go into effect on April 5, while the individualized duties will begin on April 9. Additionally, a 25% levy on foreign made automobiles went into effect at midnight on Thursday. In concert with the announcement, President Trump announced an executive order declaring a national emergency due to trading practices that posed an unusual, unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and economy of the United States. For context, tariffs or duties are levies that are placed on foreign goods paid by domestic importers to Customs and Border Patrol at ports of entry. In February, President Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports and a lower 10% tax on Canadian energy imports, but delayed them for one month after the countries recommitted to existing promises to enhance security at their respective borders with the US In March, the tariffs briefly went into effect but were paused again following discussions with Mexican and Canadian officials. You can read our previous coverage on Trump's tariffs with the link in today's episode. Description President Trump called the announced tariffs Liberation Day in America, affirming his view that countries running a trade surplus with the US Were taking advantage of the country. During his remarks on Wednesday, Trump said, our country has been looted, pillaged, raped, plundered by other nations. He added that the new tariffs, which he framed as reciprocal, would help revitalize U.S. manufacturing, cut taxes and pay down the national debt. Many countries, including the United Kingdom, Singapore, Argentina, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, will face only the baseline 10% duty. However, dozens of others dubbed the worst offenders by the White House, will have higher rates. These higher rates include 20% tariffs on European Union imports, 34% on Chinese imports, 46% on Vietnamese imports and 32% on Taiwanese imports. The White House said that the individual rates were calculated based on the effective tariff rates imposed on the United States, including currency manipulation and trade barriers. In a statement on Wednesday, the United States trade representative shared that it calculated a country's individualized rate by dividing its trade surplus with the US by its total exports. Canada and Mexico were not included in the list, but Trump said the countries will be subject to the previously announced 25% tariffs on imports. Other exceptions include energy imports and other certain minerals that are not available in the United States. Separately, Trump signed an executive order closing the de minimis provision for low value imports from China, an enforcement exception that had previously allowed companies to avoid import taxes and customs inspections on any international shipment with a retail value of $800 or less. Leaders across the EU criticized the tariffs and expressed concern about the ramifications of a trade war with the US European Commission. President Ursula von der Leyen said that Trump's announcement was a major blow, but that the EU was prepared to respond. Today we'll explore arguments from the left and the right about the latest round of tariffs and then Isaac's tape.
Isaac Saul
We'll be right back after this quick break.
Laura Kim
Imagine a toilet so striking it inspired a couture dress. That's right, Kohler's veil Smart Toilet in Honed Black actually inspired fashion designer Laura Kim to create a stunning black chiffon dress that debuted on the Runway at New York Fashion Week. The Vail Smart Toilet, with its curved design, deep, rich textural color, touchscreen controls and customizable cleansing features, can transform your routine into something extraordinary. That's the power of design. Design changes everything. Vail Smart Toilet in Honed Black only from Kohler Discover the Vail Smart Toilet and go behind the scenes of Kohler's partnership with creative director Laura Kim@kohler.com Hey.
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John Law
All right, first up, let's start with what the left is saying. The left is staunchly opposed to Trump's latest tariffs, calling them a recipe for economic disaster. Some say the principles undergirding Trump's strategy are flawed. Others worried that the economy is headed for something worse than a recession. In msnbc, Heather Boucher argued Trump's Liberation Day will only bring more chaos. In his first term, President Trump claimed that he'd revitalize US Manufacturing, but he failed to do so. There's no reason to believe that doubling down on the same failed policies will do so now There is a better way, and that comes with real federal investments into the American economy, boucher wrote. President Trump is right to say that domestic manufacturing matters. Some goods are integral to national and economic security, so we all have an interest in ensuring reliable production within our borders or friends. Short tariffs are one tool, but on their own they don't deliver. After Trump put tariffs in place during his first term and gave tax cuts for the very wealthy, investment in construction and new manufacturing facilities fell. Trump thinks that the capricious on again, off again. Tariffs will lead to investment and growth, but no one can plan sound investments amid the chaos. Further, he has no plan to improve domestic industry. The lack of even the concept of a plan is showing up in the data. Already there are indications that manufacturers have scaled back their intentions by $57 billion, Boucher said. And let's be clear, all of this is a distraction from the fleecing of America. By giving 4.6 trillion in tax cuts to the wealthiest and letting Elon Musk take a chainsaw to the US Government, these policies will not spur growth that benefits America's working people. In the New Republic, Kate Aronoff said Trump's tariffs aren't going to work how he thinks they will. The theory goes, like tariffs will make Americans buy fewer imported goods. Domestic and foreign manufacturers will be incentivized to set up plants in the United States to avoid the tariffs revitalizing the country's manufacturing base and making its exports more competitive, aronoff wrote. The evidence for all this is pretty thin, and it represents a strange brew of ideological tendencies. The Trump administration's protectionist policies go against decades of free trade orthodoxy about the promise of open borders and globalization pushed for decades in the US by neoliberal policymakers on either side of the aisle. Meanwhile, the administration's vision for what happens after those tariffs go into effect is pure neoliberal market utopia. So far, this isn't going very well. In March, the Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Management Index, a monthly survey of corporate leaders indicating manufacturing performance, dropped 1.3 percentage points below February levels to 49%, indicating that manufacturing activity is contracting rather than growing. Aronoff said the Trump administration isn't poised to revive manufacturing so much as reward whatever companies and executives happen to cozy up to it and fund Republican campaigns. Life will get harder and more expensive in the process, with few upsides for the millions. It'd like to kick off Medicaid and Social Security. In the Washington Post, Heather Long suggested something worse could be coming for the economy than a recession. President Donald Trump is pushing the economy to a breaking point, with sweeping tariffs and rapid cuts to immigration and the federal workforce. There is growing fear of not just a recession but stagflation, a frightful situation not seen in the United states since the 1970s in which the economy contracts and people lose jobs but prices remain high, long wrote. Normally, prices fall during recessions as demand dries up and retailers cut prices to try and lure people back. But Trump's intention to put tariffs on almost all imports is spooking consumers and businesses. Americans now predict inflation will jump to 5% in a year. Trump is adding to an already weakening situation with widespread tariffs that are expected to be among the biggest tax hike on Americans in years. The US Economy is propelled largely by the spending and splurges of the rich and upper middle class and now even those consumers are showing signs of cracking, long said. While this modest stagflation probably won't be as severe as it was in the 1970s, it would still be painful and difficult to stop. Trump is counting on an economic revival from tax cuts later this year, but Goldman Sachs says that it is unlikely to be enough to offset the tariff blow. Alright, that is it for what the left is saying. Which brings us to what the right is saying. The right spans a range of views on the tariff plan. Though many say Trump is taking bold action to protect the country's long term economic health, some criticize the move as a de facto tax hike on Americans. Others say the fear mongering about tariffs impact is overblown. In Fox News, E.J. antony wrote, Trump's Liberation Day will help create a new golden age for American workers. Trump's reciprocal tariffs mark the opening salvos in his fight to level the international playing field for American workers and businesses. But Trump has indicated he's willing to face short term disruptions to restore American prosperity and create a new golden age, Antony said. For decades America lacked this kind of leadership. Presidents of both political parties were willing to participate in a kind of unilateral free trade. Foreign companies were given access to American consumer markets, but our exporters were denied that same access to foreign markets. There are no winners in trade wars, but not everyone loses equally. While other nations have announced that they will ratchet up their onerous trade barriers in retaliation of President Trump's reciprocal tariffs that will simply result in further reciprocal tariffs, antony wrote. Reciprocal tariffs are fundamentally not about protectionism, but free trade. If other nations reduce or eliminate their tariffs and non tariff barriers, we will too. Liberation Day means the beginning of getting America off the one way street where other nations engage in protectionism at our expense. In the Dispatch, Jonah Goldberg asked, liberation Day from what exactly? White House Trade Advisor Peter Navarro expects these tariffs to raise $600 billion annually. Nearly every serious economist across the ideological spectrum understands that American consumers would pay the bulk of that. Thus, if successful, Trump would be imposing the largest, most regressive tax increase in history. Goldberg said it would be regressive because the taxes would hit the poor and middle class much harder than they would hit the wealthy because a larger share of the economy goes toward basics like gas, food and clothes. Politically, the idea of deliberately making these things, like literally all the things more expensive when you're elected, in large part due to popular exhaustion with inflation, is so irrational, it's like the economic policy equivalent of a Dali painting, goldberg wrote. Geopolitically, blowing up our alliances and the global economy in the name of self sufficiency is unfathomably idiotic. The more a country relies on tariffs to protect its economy, the poorer it is. The more friendly trading partners a country has, the more, the stronger it is. In the Daily Caller, David Blackmun said Trump's tariff strategy isn't a big mystery what most tend to forget, or in many cases simply ignore about Donald Trump is that he is by his very nature a deal maker. Using tools of leverage to negotiate deals is in his bones, and as president of the United States, he possesses more and stronger tools of leverage than any other human on the planet, blackmun wrote. Trump's political adversaries and US Trading partners ignore his basic negotiation strategy, which he has laid out in multiple books. That strategy involves staking out an unreasonable position that is far beyond the actual end result he wants to achieve, to force his negotiating counterparty to move in his direction and to modify his positioning until he reaches his desired outcome. Trump and the US hold almost all the real leverage in these international trading relationships, and despite Liberal Party Prime Minister candidate Mark Carney's strong rhetoric, Canada and its companies need access to the US Market far more than US Companies need access to the Canadian market, blackmun said. The overall point is the world is not going to come to an end because of Trump's tariff posturing. Supply chains aren't going to shut down, energy costs aren't going to suddenly go through the roof, the economy isn't going to shed hundreds of thousands of jobs, and dogs and cats aren't going to be living together. All right, let's head over to Isaac for his take.
Isaac Saul
All right, that is it for what the left and the right are saying, which brings us to my take. So let me start here with just a bit of radical honesty. I have no idea what's going to happen now. I am not an economic journalist, an economist, a trade expert, nor a tariff expert, and our modern globalized world has never experienced any major power trying anything like this. So I just don't know what's going to happen. Despite the confident predictions you may hear from some corners, I honestly don't think anyone does. Most of the economists that I trust and follow, regardless of their political orientation, are absolutely 100% sure that President Trump is in the process of making a massive term defining mistake. They are predicting inflation, a recession and an era of economic disruption that is entirely his making. They similarly predict that this tariff strategy will isolate us from our most important trading partners and push them into China's sphere of influence, an outcome that would be antithetical to one of Trump's core goals. But I've also heard some pretty compelling arguments in the opposite direction. Serious economists like Oren Cass or Stephen Waran have made a case for these tariffs. I recently listened to Bob Lighthizer, the former US Trade representative during Trump's first term, get interviewed on Tucker Carlson's podcast. Lighthizer made a number of strong points about the success of tariffs in the first Trump term, despite mainstream skepticism and the fact that Biden maintained many of those tariffs when he came into office. Perhaps most compellingly, Lighthizer starts by focusing on where decades of the trade practices Trump is targeting have gotten us. He asks listeners to look at our hollowed out working class towns, at our shrinking middle class, at living conditions for the two thirds of our workers without college degrees, and then ask themselves if our modern system of global trade is really working. I think starting from a position of challenging the status quo is essential and smart. And I'm open to the idea that our trade policies, founded on an obsession with growth and cheap goods, are hurting us in the long run. If Trump's goal is to reduce the barriers on American exports other countries have erected, he may well get a few wins. Israel, for instance, already agreed to lift all duties on U.S. imports in an effort to be exempted from new tariffs. Trump can already point to Apple, Johnson and Johnson, Eli Lilly and Hyundai as major companies who have been talking about expanding their manufacturing operations in the United States. Yes, while Trump's belief that trade deficits represent us being taken advantage of is totally wrong, in my view, it does not make those potential gains any less real. Another benchmark the administration could be hoping to achieve is to lower the Yield on the 10 year treasury note or the T note. That yield is the annualized return investors earn by holding a US T note with a 10 year maturity. If it is coming down, it is a sign investors are seeking safety from uncertain economic conditions. Treasury Secretary Scott Bent believes that a lower yield will force the Fed to cut rates, which the administration wants. After the tariff announcements, the 10 year t note yield fell, potentially the exact indicator Besant was looking for. These potential objectives represent a strategic through line the administration is articulating, but shifting and incompatible explanations for what it hopes to achieve have left its supporters haphazardly offering conflicting explanations. As the Atlantic's Derek Thompson noted, some people in Trump's orbit say the goal is to raise trillions of dollars of revenue, then ultimately get rid of income taxes. But other supporters have said the goal is to force other countries to remove their tariffs, creating an era of genuinely free trade. Some point to the administration's initial justification of national security, or increasing American manufacturing, or creating leverage over Mexico or Canada or Europe or China, or all of them all at once. For some people, it's about fentanyl and the imports of Chinese goods. Again, with so many explanations, it's impossible to nail down the intended goal or what success might look like. I'm not trying to be critical here for the sake of being critical. The entire situation genuinely raises a laundry list of questions about the administration's plan. If the point is to force other countries into reciprocity and fair trade, then why did Trump move forward with a large tariff increase on Israel after it removed all of its tariffs on US if it's to impose reciprocal tariffs, why is the Trump administration using a formula to levy these tariffs based on trade balances rather than tariff rates? Trump has argued that if tariffs make nations poor, then every country would be racing to eliminate tariffs. But every country has been doing that, and the poorest nations tend to have the highest tariffs. So what's the end game here? Many of these countries will have to rewrite their industrial policies before reworking their tariffs or trying to give the US what it wants, which we think is a balanced trade deficit with individual countries, but might just be equal tariff rates. How should small developing countries react? Some of the territories on the tariff list don't even have inhabitants. It could take a country like Cambodia years to prepare before reducing its tariffs on the US without cratering its own economy. Lesotho, an African country with a GDP smaller than most US territories, just got hit with a 50% tariff rate because it's a part of the South African Customs Union, the sacu. How does Lesotho work its way out of these tariffs without South Africa? And why did South Africa get a lower tariff rate than Lesotho when both tax us equally? Our treatment of Indonesia is another head scratcher. Indonesia has high tax on coffee imports because it is a major exporter of coffee. Trump has slapped a 32% tax on coffee imports from Indonesia even though the United States exports zero coffee to Indonesia. Where is the reciprocity there We've levied massive tariffs on Cambodia and Vietnam now, too, potentially, because a lot of countries have moved their operations out of China and into Cambodia or Vietnam to avoid the China US Trade war that's been ongoing for several years now. So now what happens to those companies? We import 98% of clothing in the United States, primarily from Southeast Asia. Are we supposed to divert hundreds of thousands of Americans from higher paying jobs to manufacture clothing, stand up those manufacturing plants and start producing our own clothes? How does that help us? How does this help us confront China? If they are a more open trading partner than we are, won't we lose trading partners and therefore political power to them? What is the explanation for the exemptions? Oil imports have been exempted from Trump's tariffs, as have semiconductors. What are the administration's explanations for making these exemptions if the impacts of the tariffs are supposed to be so uniformly strong? We don't know and they don't say. There are plenty of political questions, too. First, why didn't Trump's first term dealmaking work out? Let's not forget that we are mostly living in Trump's trade world, the one he created in his first term by abandoning the Trans Pacific Partnership, signing new trade deals and levying new tariffs, most of which Biden did not change in any meaningful way. He called those deals the greatest in history. Now he's trumpeting broad tariffs by arguing they're all terrible deals. Then there's the question of how he'll sell this to the country. The initial economic analysis on these tariffs is, well, not great. The Budget Lab predicts an average loss of $3,800 in purchasing power per household in 2025. JP Morgan's chief economist said the impact of the tariffs could bring the economy perilously close to slipping into a recession. This year, S and P futures tanked, losing $1.3 trillion of market cap in four minutes. Trump is following through on his campaign promises with these tariffs, which provide some political coverage. But he's also been beating the drum of the short term pain for long term gain. How short? Six months? A year? His entire term? We don't know and he doesn't say. But his administration will be kneecapped in 2026 if the plan is to let America's stock portfolios and retirement plans crater, while he promises a golden age of manufacturing sometime in the undefined future. Some people on the left, like Senator Chris Murphy, the Democrat from Connecticut, have insisted that the tariffs are not an economic policy but a tool to collapse our democracy. Murphy claims. What Trump really wants is a means to compel loyalty from every business leader and industry to solicit donations, public support, and fealty in exchange for sanctions relief. I don't doubt that Trump relishes the power or influence these tariffs may afford him, but I think Murphy is wrong. For starters, I don't think this plan is going to draw industry leaders to the president for favor. I think it is going to draw their ire and probably cost Trump some support. More to the point, I think Trump's fundamental belief that the United States is getting ripped off by globalism is much like his view on immigration. It is one of the few genuine ideological perspectives that he is rigid and consistent on. He has had it since long before he was in office, and tariffs have always been a key part of the resolution in his mind. With only one term left, he seems to earnestly believe he can pursue them without facing real political consequences and without inflicting too much economic damage on the American people. I suppose now we are about to find out how true all of that really is. We'll be right back after this quick break.
Laura Kim
Imagine a toilet so striking it inspired a couture dress. That's right, Kohler's Veil Smart Toilet in Honed Black actually inspired fashion designer Laura Kim to create a stunning black chiffon dress that debuted on the Runway at New York Fashion Week. The Veil Smart Toilet, with its curved design, deep rich textural color, touchscreen controls and customizable cleansing features, can transform your routine into something extraordinary. That's the power of design. Design changes everything. Vail Smart Toilet in Honed Black only from Kohler Discover the Vail Smart Toilet and go behind the scenes of Kohler's partnership with Creative Director Laura Kim@kohler.com Hey.
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Isaac Saul
All right, that is it for my take today. This podcast got a bit long because of how deep we went on tariffs, so we're skipping today's questions answered and I'm going to send it back to John for the rest of the pod and I'll see you guys tomorrow. If you're a member, we've got a podcast coming out tomorrow. I'm writing it. I'm not sure if I'll be on the mic tomorrow. I've got a travel day back from West Texas to Philadelphia and I am still hoping to publish a piece about some of the due process stuff happening in the country right now. So somebody will be on the mic recording that personal opinion piece that we're going to publish tomorrow. So keep an ear out for that. Otherwise, we'll see you Sunday for our Sunday podcast with me and Ari and a special guest coming on the show, Camille Foster, who I'm very excited about. It's going to be a really great show, so we'll see you then. Have a good one. Peace.
John Law
Thanks Isaac. Here's your under the radar story for today, folks. The Trump administration has extended a second round of buyout offers to thousands of federal workers as part of its efforts to cull the federal workforce. The offer mirrors the terms of the first deal sent in February, giving workers the choice to resign from their positions and be paid through September. Roughly 75,000 federal employees took the deal in the first round, and some are reportedly more receptive to the offer. Now it feels more structured and less chaotic than the first time. One anonymous Agriculture Department employee said, we'd work with our agency instead of responding to a mysterious OPM inbox, not knowing if the government would actually carry through on the agreement. The Washington Post has this story and there's a link in today's episode description alright, next up is our numbers section. The additional tariff rate levied on imports from China in the Trump administration's latest round of tariffs is 34%. China imports as a share of total US imports is 13.4%. The additional tariff rate levied on imports from the European Union is 20%. European Union imports as a share of total US imports is 18.5%. The value of Chinese exports of low value single packages exempt from Import taxes in 2018 was $5.3 billion, according to the Congressional Research Service. The value of Chinese exports of low value single packages exempt from Import taxes in 2023 was $66 billion. The percentage of U.S. adults who agree and disagree, respectively, that President Trump's moves to shake up the economy are too erratic is 57% and 31%, according to a March April survey from Reuters Ipsos. And the percentage of Republicans and Democrats, respectively, who think President Trump's moves to shake up the economy are too erratic is 25% and 90%. And last but not least, our have a nice day story. The home of Harriet Tubman's father, Ben Ross, was discovered in Maryland in 2020. However, due to its location on a tidal wetland, rising sea levels threaten its preservation state. Archaeologists took innovative action to ensure its accessibility, creating an interactive virtual museum with 3D models, photographs, and detailed information about the findings at the historical site. The creation of the virtual museum is not just an effort to protect the artifacts, but also a way to ensure that the history of Ross Tubman and the region's enslaved people is not lost, ella Jeffries wrote. Smithsonian Magazine has this story and you can check it out with a link in today's episode Description alright everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, please go to Retangled, where you can sign up for a newsletter membership, podcast membership, or a bundled membership that gets you a discount on both. In tomorrow's Members Only Friday edition, Isaac will be making the case for due process for anyone on American soil and explaining how the recent deportation stories represent a genuine threat to American citizens. To receive access to that and future Friday editions, Sunday editions, interviews and so much more, you can head over to our membership page and sign up for one of our options. Isaac and Ari will be here with the Sunday podcast and I will return on Monday. For the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off. Have an absolutely fantastic weekend, y'all. Peace.
Isaac Saul
Our podcast is written by me, Isaac Saul and edited and engineered by Duke Thomas. Our script is edited by Ari Weitzman, Will K Back daily, Saul and Sean Brady. The logo for our podcast was made by Magdalena Bova, who is also our social media manager. The music for the podcast was produced by Diet75 and if you are looking for more from Tangle, please go check out our website@readtangle.com that's readtangle.com.
Laura Kim
Imagine a toilet so striking it inspired a couture dress. That's right, Kohler's Veil Smart Toilet in Honed Black actually inspired fashion designer Laura Kim to create a stunning black chiffon dress that debuted on the Runway at New York Fashion Week. The Vail Smart Toilet, with its curved design, deep rich textural color, touchscreen controls and customizable cleansing features can transform your routine into something extraordinary. That's the power of design. Design changes everything. Vail Smart Toilet in Honed Black only from Kohler Discover the Vail Smart Toilet and go behind the scenes of Kohler's partnership with Creative Director Laura Kim@kohler.com oh.
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John Law
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Title: Trump's "Liberation Day" Tariffs
Host: Isaac Saul
Release Date: April 3, 2025
In this episode of Tangle, host Isaac Saul delves into the significant policy announcement by former President Donald Trump regarding the implementation of sweeping tariffs, dubbed "Liberation Day." Released on April 2, 2025, these tariffs mark a pivotal moment in U.S. economic policy, aiming to reshape international trade relations and domestic manufacturing.
Isaac Saul opens the discussion by framing the tariffs as potentially the most impactful economic move of the Trump administration, with widespread implications for American consumers, businesses, and international trade dynamics.
Isaac emphasizes the administration's justification for these tariffs as a means to "revitalize U.S. manufacturing, cut taxes, and pay down the national debt."
The episode presents a strong critique from the left, highlighting economic and societal concerns regarding the tariffs.
Heather Boucher (MSNBC): Criticizes the tariffs as "a recipe for economic disaster," arguing that Trump's previous attempts to boost manufacturing failed due to lack of coherent strategy and investment. She points out, "Trump is counting on... policies that will not spur growth that benefits America's working people" (07:30).
Kate Aronoff (New Republic): Challenges the efficacy of tariffs in revitalizing manufacturing, noting a decline in manufacturing activity as evidenced by the Institute for Supply Management's index dropping to 49%. She asserts, "Trump administration isn't poised to revive manufacturing so much as reward... funding Republican campaigns" (09:16).
Heather Long (Washington Post): Warns of potential stagflation, a scenario where the economy contracts while prices remain high, reminiscent of the 1970s. She states, "Trump is pushing the economy to a breaking point" and criticizes the tariffs as contributing to "the largest, most regressive tax increase in history" (12:45).
These perspectives collectively argue that the tariffs will disproportionately affect the poor and middle class, lead to economic instability, and fail to achieve the intended boost in domestic manufacturing.
In contrast, the right presents a defense of Trump's tariffs, emphasizing national economic sovereignty and strategic positioning.
E.J. Antony (Fox News): Heralds "Liberation Day" as the start of "a new golden age for American workers," asserting that the tariffs correct "the one-way street where other nations engage in protectionism at our expense." He emphasizes, "Reciprocal tariffs are fundamentally not about protectionism, but free trade" (14:10).
Jonah Goldberg (The Dispatch): Offers a critical view, highlighting the regressive nature of the tariffs. He notes, "Trump would be imposing the largest, most regressive tax increase in history," affecting essentials like gas and food more than the wealthy, and calls the strategy "unfathomably idiotic" geopolitically (16:00).
David Blackmun (Daily Caller): Defends Trump's negotiation tactics, arguing that Trump uses leverage effectively to achieve favorable trade deals. He contends, "The world is not going to come to an end because of Trump's tariff posturing" and maintains that U.S. leverage in trade negotiations remains strong (18:15).
These viewpoints suggest that the tariffs are a strategic move to balance trade deficits, protect American industries, and assert U.S. dominance in international trade.
Isaac offers a nuanced perspective, acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding the tariffs' long-term effects while analyzing both sides' arguments.
Economic Uncertainty: Isaac admits a lack of definitive knowledge on the outcome, stating, "I just don't know what's going to happen."
Optimistic Views: He references economists like Oren Cass and Stephen Waran, and former U.S. Trade Representative Bob Lighthizer, who argue that tariffs can address structural issues in global trade, such as hollowed-out working-class communities and shrinking middle classes. Lighthizer emphasizes the need to "challenge the status quo" and reassess trade policies that prioritize growth and cheap goods over domestic well-being.
Critical Analysis: Isaac questions the administration's inconsistent rationale for tariffs, pointing out anomalies like the high tariffs on Indonesia’s coffee despite zero U.S. exports to the country. He raises concerns about the practical implementation and potential backlash, such as "Lesotho... just got hit with a 50% tariff rate," and the lack of clarity on exemption policies for essential imports.
Political Implications: Isaac highlights the political risks, noting predictions from the Budget Lab and JP Morgan of significant economic drawbacks, including decreased purchasing power and potential recession. He also references Senator Chris Murphy's claim that tariffs are a tool to "collapse our democracy," though Isaac is skeptical of this interpretation.
Overall, Isaac maintains a cautious stance, recognizing potential strategic benefits but wary of the economic and political fallout.
The episode of Tangle provides a comprehensive exploration of Trump's Liberation Day tariffs, presenting a balanced discourse between opposition and support. The left's concerns focus on economic instability and regressive impacts, while the right emphasizes strategic trade positioning and protection of American industries. Isaac Saul concludes with a personal reflection on the uncertainties and complexities of the situation, underscoring the need for continued observation and analysis as the tariffs take effect.
Isaac Saul: "Most of the economists that I trust and follow, regardless of their political orientation, are absolutely 100% sure that President Trump is in the process of making a massive term defining mistake." (19:52)
Heather Boucher: "Trump is counting on an economic revival from tax cuts later this year, but it's unlikely to offset the tariff blow." (09:16)
E.J. Antony: "Liberation Day means the beginning of getting America off the one way street where other nations engage in protectionism at our expense." (14:10)
Jonah Goldberg: "Geopolitically, blowing up our alliances and the global economy in the name of self sufficiency is unfathomably idiotic." (16:00)
This summary encapsulates the multifaceted debate surrounding Trump's tariffs as discussed in the Tangle podcast, providing listeners with a thorough understanding of the key arguments and potential implications.