Tangle Podcast Episode Summary

Episode: Trump's new national security priorities
Date: December 9, 2025
Host: Will K. Back (Senior Editor, guest host), John (co-host), with appearances by Isaac Saul (Executive Producer/Editor-in-Chief)
Podcast: Tangle

Overview

This episode dives deep into the Trump administration’s new 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS)—a critical document outlining U.S. foreign policy priorities for Trump's second term. The Tangle team examines how these priorities have shifted, particularly regarding China, Russia, Europe, and the Western Hemisphere. The episode features arguments from across the political spectrum and abroad, critical and supportive perspectives, and signature commentary from the hosts.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Introduction and Context

• [02:01] Will K. Back opens by explaining the purpose of the NSS and why this version has sparked significant debate:

  "Trump's second term NSS… has made headlines and sparked quite a bit of debate recently because of how it shifted some of those priorities, both from Trump's first term and from recent presidential administrations overall."

• The NSS is legally required, sent to Congress to communicate the executive branch’s security priorities.

2. Topline NSS Changes

• [05:54] John summarizes the NSS highlights:
  • Refocus on regional relationships (esp. Western Hemisphere)
  • Economic power and technological dominance at the forefront
  • Avoiding conflict in the Pacific, but not walking back on Taiwan or nuclear deterrence
  • Emphasizes a "Trump corollary" to the Monroe Doctrine: deepening U.S. partnerships in the Americas and blocking foreign influence
  • Shift in attitude toward Europe—calls for more defense spending, economic improvement, and stable (rather than strictly defensive) relations with Russia
  • Strong emphasis on U.S. border security and use of military power to fight drug trafficking

Perspectives from the Political Spectrum

3. What the Right is Saying

[11:04]

• Niall Ferguson (Free Press):
  Praises the NSS for rejecting decades of American interventionism.

  "It is a succinct repudiation of the foreign policies of both the Clintons and the Bush, not to mention the Kennedys. It rejects the notion of an indispensable nation with a duty to police the globe." (12:03)

  Notes that while the document reorients towards the Western Hemisphere, most ideas are still traditional (Nixonian realism, Reaganite strength, soft power).

• Peter Doran (New York Post):
  Compliments the focus on regional security but criticizes vagueness and downplaying of immediate threats:

  "The Trump 2.0 strategy gives these issues lower priority, focusing more on Western Hemisphere affairs, fair trade deals and grievances about current account deficits." (13:18)
  Warnings that a lack of clarity about China, Russia, and Iran is a strategic weakness.

4. What the Left is Saying

[13:56]

• Thomas Wright (Atlantic):
  Argues NSS is less about U.S. security and more about reshaping the world order:

  "What the White House presented... resembles France's Maginot Line... Trump's latest NSS is a blunt repudiation of the idea that the United States is in a strategic competition with rival powers." (14:14)
  Characterizes the document as blueprint for “an illiberal international order,” and claims it prioritizes obscure threats like European civilizational decline over current rivals.

• Andreas Kluth (Bloomberg):
  Critiques internal contradictions:

  "A convenient translation strategy is whatever Trump says tomorrow on Air Force One or later in the Oval Office." (15:25)

  Notes persistent favoritism towards Russia and disdain for multilateral organizations, warning about a return to 19th-century-style spheres of influence and benefits for Trump’s business associates.

5. What Writers Abroad are Saying

[16:33]

• George Reichelies & Varg Folkman (Guardian):
  Suggest the NSS signals a U.S. retreat, leaving Europe on its own:

  "The security document is the clearest signal yet of how brutally and transactionally Washington wants to engage with the continent." (16:49)
  Europe, they argue, needs to step up its own defense and strategic independence.

• Judi Dempsey (Strategic Europe):
  Agrees that the NSS’s criticisms are blunt but, in many respects, accurate:

  "Europe and the rest of the world now know how poorly this US Administration regards them... Yes, Europe does lack self confidence... Yes, it has failed to listen to the grievances of the far right." (18:17)
  Dempsey sees Europe’s long-standing reliance on the U.S. as a liability in today's environment.

Host Analysis & Takeaways

6. Will K. Back’s Detailed Analysis

[19:03]

• Acknowledges the logic in focusing on regional neighbors and U.S. self-interest:

  "But as a cohesive plan, it misdiagnoses the hierarchy of threats that the United States faces." (19:35)

• Warns that prioritizing the Western Hemisphere above Russia and China is misplaced:

  • Quotes recent intelligence (March 2025) that "China presents the most comprehensive and robust military threat to US national security." (22:50)
  • Argues that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s military growth remain more urgent.

• Criticizes specific policy moves—like tariffs and inconsistent aid in Latin America—as antagonizing rather than uniting partners:

  "These actions seem far more likely to antagonize and alienate than foster stronger allegiances." (21:24)

• Emphasizes that downgrading China/Russia to focus on hemisphere security is strategically unsound when threats at the global scale are intensifying.

• Notes a significant rhetorical shift from "firmly committed to our European allies" (2017 NSS) to "our goal should be to help Europe correct its current trajectory" (2025 NSS).

  "The shift in language on Europe in the past eight years has been striking." (26:38)

• On the America First approach:

  "Trump's 2025 foreign policy is an exemplar of the conception of America first... but I think Trump's second NSS lays bare this America First foreign policy's own equally significant shortcomings." (28:38)
  Concludes it leaves U.S. less prepared for pressing dangers.

7. Isaac Saul’s Staff Dissent

[29:33]

• Defends the renewed focus on Latin America:

  "Economic instability, mass migration, the import of narcotics and gang activity are also national security concerns... the immediacy of those threats from Latin America is apparent and I think more urgent." (29:50)

• Warns that China and Russia are actively seeking influence in the region.
• Challenges critics to show prior approaches worked before dismissing a strategic reset:

  "If our past policies toward China, the Middle East and Russia have not deterred these nations... is it really fair to frame a reset as a wrong turn?" (30:45)

Notable Quotes & Moments

| Speaker | Quote | Timestamp | |--------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------| | Niall Ferguson | "It rejects the notion of an indispensable nation with a duty to police the globe." | 12:03 | | Peter Doran | "Right now, China is flexing its military muscle in the Pacific... Alas, the Trump 2.0 strategy gives these issues lower priority..." | 13:18 | | Thomas Wright | "Trump's latest NSS is a blunt repudiation of the idea that the United States is in a strategic competition with rival powers." | 14:14 | | Andreas Kluth | "A convenient translation strategy is whatever Trump says tomorrow on Air Force One..." | 15:25 | | George Reichelies | "The security document is the clearest signal yet of how brutally and transactionally Washington wants to engage with the continent." | 16:49 | | Judi Dempsey | "Yes, Europe does lack self confidence... Yes, it has failed to listen to the grievances of the far right." | 18:17 | | Will K. Back | "But as a cohesive plan, it misdiagnoses the hierarchy of threats that the United States faces." | 19:35 | | Will K. Back | "These actions seem far more likely to antagonize and alienate than foster stronger allegiances." | 21:24 | | Will K. Back | "China presents the most comprehensive and robust military threat to US national security." | 22:50 | | Will K. Back | "The shift in language on Europe in the past eight years has been striking." | 26:38 | | Will K. Back | "...Trump's second NSS lays bare this America First foreign policy's own equally significant shortcomings." | 28:38 | | Isaac Saul | "Economic instability, mass migration, the import of narcotics and gang activity are also national security concerns... the immediacy of those threats from Latin America is apparent and I think more urgent." | 29:50 | | Isaac Saul | "If our past policies toward China, the Middle East and Russia have not deterred these nations... is it really fair to frame a reset as a wrong turn?" | 30:45 |

Statistics & Segments

• Mentions in the new NSS:
  • China: 21 (down from 33 in 2017)
  • Russia: 10 (down from 25)
  • Europe: 49 (up from 28)
  • Iran: 3 (down from 17) [36:13]
• Concrete recent examples of Trump administration moves:
  • 50% tariff on Brazilian imports tied to domestic political disputes.
  • $40B bailout for Argentina, military buildup near Venezuela.
  • Ongoing strikes on “drug boats” in the Caribbean.

Flow & Tone

• The episode maintains Tangle’s signature balanced, plainspoken, and analytical tone.
• Hosts and cited writers speak candidly, mixing critique with cautious praise, occasionally peppering commentary with irony (e.g., Kluth’s “translation strategy is whatever Trump says tomorrow…”).
• The analysis is fact-focused, with notable avoidance of ad hominem, prioritizing policy over personality.

Practical Takeaways

• The Trump 2025 NSS sharply shifts U.S. foreign policy: prioritizing the Americas over Europe or Asia, pursuing transactional relationships, and demanding domestic benefit before international involvement.
• Critics across the spectrum question whether this new hierarchy of threats leaves the U.S. less secure against rising dangers from Russia and China.
• Supporters see overdue realism and a focus on immediate issues like border security, with some warning that rivals are exploiting regional vacuums.
• Both Will K. Back and Isaac Saul agree that the prior status quo was not necessarily effective; the debate centers on whether this reset is focusing on the right priorities.

For further reading, check the show notes for the sources and articles mentioned.
Listen back from [05:54] for the full NSS breakdown and from [19:03] for Will’s comprehensive take.