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From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle.
Steve Madden Announcer
Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, and welcome to the Tangle Podcast. The place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking and a little bit of my take. I am your host, Isaac Saul, back in the hosting man's chair. But before we jump into anything today, I want to give a quick shout out and thank you to Ari and Will and John and Magdalena, who you might have noticed took over some podcasting duties the last few days. Thursday, Friday, Sunday and Monday. I had a little bit of a family emergency pop up late last week. It was a scary few days, but things are good. We got some good news. Things turned a corner. So I'm back in the hosting chair before our break for Thanksgiving. And I really appreciate the team stepping up and stepping in for me. So thank you to all of them. Again, I apologize for a little bit of an absence, but nice to know we can always flex and bring some other people in and still continue to bring you guys awesome content. Before we jump into today's main story, which ironically is about representative Lori Chavez, Dermer, I have a correction about Representative Lori Chavez Derimer from yesterday's podcast. We incorrectly identified her in the newsletter. Actually not in the podcast. Podcast. As a Democrat from Washington, she's a Republican from Oregon. We got it right on the podcast, but we got it wrong in the newsletter because ironically, again, we were testing out a tool to help us catch errors. So we intentionally created an error in the newsletter, ran it through the tool, and then forgot to correct the error before we published the newsletter. But it was correct in the podcast. Those of you who go back and forth, we wanna let you know we made the mistake. Very annoying, very silly. Our quest for a streak without errors begins today anew. Also, a quick heads up that we are headed into Thanksgiving break, so we will not have a normal podcast tomorrow. I do have a podcast. I'm planning to record that today or tomorrow morning that we'll share with you. So keep an eye out for that and then we're gonna take a few days off and I'll explain why tomorrow. So with that, I'm gonna pass it off to John for our main which is Trump's pick for Labor Secretary, which is Representative Lori Chavez Dermer. And I hope you guys enjoy. I'll be back for my take.
Isaac Saul
Thanks, Isaac, and welcome everybody. Here are your quick hits for today. First up, Judge Tanya Chutkan granted special counsel Jack Smith's request to drop all charges against President elect Donald Trump in his 2020 election interference case. Additionally, Smith filed to dismiss his appeal in Trump's classified docum documents case in Florida. Number two, the Israeli Cabinet is close to approving a ceasefire deal with Hezbollah, according to a spokesperson for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Separately, the United Arab Emirates arrested three Uzbek nationals as suspects in the killing of a Jewish community leader, which Israel described as an act of antisemitic terrorism. Number three, President elect Trump's legal team has reportedly uncovered evidence that a top advisor, Boris Epstein, has been soliciting retainer fees from potential appointees to promote for jobs in the new administration. Number four, In a post on Truth Social, President elect Donald Trump said he would sign an executive order imposing 25% tariffs on all products from Canada and Mexico on his first day in office. Trump added that the tariffs would remain in effect until the two countries took steps to stop the flow of drugs and unauthorized migrants into the United States. And number five, Callan Georgescu won the first round of voting in Romania's presidential election. In a surprise result, Georgescu, a far right candidate who has criticized NATO and praised Russian President Vladimir Putin now advances to a runoff against center right candidate Elena Lascone.
Political Analyst
President Elect Donald Trump has picked Oregon Congresswoman Lori Chavez Dermer as his nominee to lead the Labor Department. Chavez Dermer narrowly lost reelection against Janelle Bynum earlier this month. She received strong backing from union members in her district.
Isaac Saul
On Friday, President Elect Donald Trump named Representative Lori Chavez de Remer, the Republican from Oregon, as his nominee for labor secretary. Chavez de Remer, who narrowly lost her bid for reelection to the House, is considered one of the most pro union Republicans in Congress, and her nomination serves as another signal that the GOP's historically adverse stance toward unions might be changing. The Secretary of Labor leads the Department of Labor, which manages rules, regulations and laws for wages, occupational safety, unionization, workers rights and unemployment benefits, among other things. During her sole term in Congress, Chavez Deremer was one of just three Republicans to co sponsor the protecting the right to organize or pro act, a top legislative priority for President Joe Biden. The bill would have weakened right to work laws, which generally exempt a worker from having to join a union that a majority of workers have voted to join and made unionizing easier for workers workers. Several Democratic senators also introduced a companion bill, but it was not passed. Immediately after Chavez de Rummer's nomination was announced, some Republicans and business leaders expressed skepticism. Senator Bill Cassidy, the Republican from Louisiana, said he would need to get a better understanding of her support for Democratic legislation in Congress that would strip Louisiana's ability to be a right to work state and if that will be her position going forward. Meanwhile, some Democrats and union leaders spoke out in support. Chavez de Remer has the backing of the Teamsters President Sean O'Brien, one of the most powerful union leaders in the country. Thank you ealdonaldtrump for putting American workers first by nominating Representative Lori Chavez de Remer, O'Brien said on X. Other labor groups like the AFL CIO responded to the pick with caution. Donald Trump is the President Elect of the United States, not Representative Chavez de Remeras, and it remains to be seen what she'll be permitted to do as Secretary of Labor in an administration with a dramatically anti worker agenda, afl CIO President Liz Schuler said today. We're going to examine some of the reactions to Chavez de Rummer's nomination from the left and the right and then Isaac's take.
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Isaac Saul
All right, first up, let's start with what the left is saying. The left suggests the pick will exacerbate tensions within the Republican Party. Some doubt that Chavez Derimer will be a true ally to workers under Trump. Others say Chavez Dermer should pursue an unabashed pro worker agenda as labor secretary. In the New York Times, Farah Stockman wrote about the Republican freakout over Trump's pick. It might be the most shocking news yet to come out of this rollercoaster of a transition. After weeks of choosing cabinet secretaries who seem determined to destroy the agencies they lead, Donald Trump announced the choice of a secretary of labor whom many American workers actually like. Stockman said her nomination puts the economic populist wing of the Republican Party on a collision course with the more traditional Republicans who have always been on the side of company bosses. She embodies the contradiction that is the Trump coalition. It won political power with widespread support from blue collar workers, but has up until this point looked poised to hand the federal government over to business friendly billionaires. So why did Trump risk alienating the right wing by choosing Chavez de Remeras? Maybe he felt the need to throw a bone to Labor President Biden. The most union friendly president in living memory is a tough act to follow, Stockman wrote. More likely, he wants to publicly reward the Teamsters president Sean O'Brien, who is said to have pushed personally for Chavez de Remer's nomination. If Trump wants to prove that he is really on the side of American workers, however, he's going to have to do more than one cabinet nomination. In msnbc, Zeeshan Aleem asked, is Trump's surprising labor secretary pick good news for America? Trump's pick of Representative Lori Chavez de Remer of Oregon is in line with some of the GOP's recent rhetorical softening in its general hostility to organized labor. But other parts of the incoming administration have lined up behind many anti labor policies, and it's too early to tell if naming Chavez de Remer means anything more than projecting labor friendly optics, Alim said. While Chavez de Remer has supported some pro union policies, she's far from a leftist hiding in a Republican suit. The AFL CIO gave Chavez de Rimer the AFL CIO gave Chavez de rimer a 10% score on her first and only term in Congress when assessing her votes on issues important to working families. There is a good reason to be skeptical that Chavez Deremer represents a major turn on labor for the gop. Chavez de Rimer's ideological outlook matters, but ultimately she'll be taking cues from Trump, alim wrote. Trump and MAGA politicians such as Vance have begun paying lip service to the idea that organized labor deserves some rhetorical support. But if they remain on the same anti labor policy track that they always have been, and I suspect for the most part they will, it's best to understand it as a cynical plot to cleave the working class and drag them rightward. For the Economic Policy Institute, Celine McNicholas outlined the policies that will determine whether Trump's labor secretary pick supports workers. Chavez Zeremir has stated that working class Americans finally have a lifeline with President Elect Trump in the White House. If workers truly have an ally in Chavez de Remmer, she will advance policies that improve workers lives. Here are a few policies that will reveal whether the second Trump administration will actually aid working class Americans, McNicholas said. Win funding for the Department of Labor that enables the agency to serve the US Workforce. Chavez de Rummer should fight for and secure at least a $14 billion budget to ensure that US workers have health and safety inspectors and wage and hour investigators on the job to enforce their rights. Chavez de Rummer should fight for workers right to overtime. She should not allow the Trump administration to once again institute a lower salary threshold for overtime eligibility that leaves millions of workers without these protections, McNicholas wrote. Refuse to institute the Payroll Audit Independent Determination Program. This program was instituted during Trump's first administration and essentially permits employers who have stolen workers wages to confess and get out of jail free. Chavez Der emer should make it harder for employers to steal workers wages, not easier. Alright, that is it for what the left is saying. Which brings us to what the right is saying. The right is mixed on the pick with many criticizing Chavez de Rimmer's strong pro union position, some question why Trump would choose someone with liberal views on labor issues for a position of such importance. Others say Trump is bolstering his bona fides as a pro worker president. The Wall Street Journal editorial board said Trump's choice puts unions over workers. Mr. Trump said Chavez de Remer will work toward historic cooperation between business and labor. But Ms. Chavez de Remer has backed union giveaways like the PRO act, which are not cooperation. Hence the enthusiasm from labor bosses. The board wrote the PRO act would effectively ban gig jobs and codify the Biden National Labor Relations Board's joint employer standard, which would upend the FR franchise business model and contracting agreements to make it easier for unions to organize workers. The result would be less autonomy for franchisees and small businesses that contract with bigger firms. Some Republicans think enhancing union power will help Republicans win more elections. Then why did Ms. Chavez de Remer lose her reelection? The reality is that the pro labor agenda espoused by union honchos isn't all that popular among working class voters, the board said. Republicans can work with unions to improve workforce training and increase alternative education pathways like apprenticeships. But putting Ms. Chavez de Remer in charge of labor will make labor bosses, not workers, more powerful again. In his newsletter, Eric Woods, Erickson argued the left's reaction to the pick should be a warning sign to Republicans. Many Trump supporters have gone from he's playing 4D chess to these picks don't really matter, but being in the line of presidential succession matters more so. It was through the labor secretary that COVID vaccine mandates, employee shutdowns, et cetera happened. The labor secretary is a vitally important role. Donald Trump's labor secretary may be an attempt to shift labor votes to the gop, but it is not a smart move, erickson wrote. Chavez de Remer has supported amnesty in every way, shape and form. She'll have a great deal of personal say in regulations related to employment of illegal aliens and the inspection of businesses that are suspected of hiring illegal aliens. She also supports expanded union participation of government workers. Chavez de Remer has repeatedly been the Republican vote for Democrats repeated attempts to force all government employees into government unions. She has even supported the right to strike as a government employee. Erickson said putting Chavez de Remer into the Department of Labor is causing Democrats to cheer and that should be a warning sign to Republicans. She's a terrible pick and she is a pick that matters. In the American compass, Bhatia Ungar Sargon argued Trump's nominee for Secretary of Labor Puts meat on the bones for a Working class GOP President elect Donald Trump has been steadily rolling out his picks for his cabinet in a made for TV nomination process that's gripped the nation. That the same talking heads who helped the Democrats lose the working class are now losing their minds over his choices suggests that he's right over the target. But a few picks are making Republican elites equally furious, including Trump's choice for Secretary of Labor, Ungar Sargon wrote in the surest sign that her candidacy is a boon for workers. The big business lobby is already lining up against her. Trump hasn't been shy to adopt the best ideas from both sides, even from progressives. Recall that it was progressives who used to support tariffs and progressives who used to support controlling the border and deporting illegal immigrants and protect wages. Ungar Sargon said. That Trump has married his proposed tariffs and hawkish immigration policy with such an aggressively pro labor secretary for the Department of Labor shows how serious he is about representing the working class Americans who gave him his victory. All right, let's head over to Isaac for his take.
Steve Madden Announcer
All right, that is it for what the left and the right are saying. Which brings us to my take. So Chavez Derrimer is by far the most fascinating pick Trump has made for his Cabinet. A few things about this nomination stick out to me that I think are worth bookmarking. First, it's our billionth reminder that Trump is driven by relationships just as much as ideology. Teamsters president Sean O'Brien made a decision to pursue a relationship with Trump, and that Chavez Derimero was O'Brien's preferred pick for this role has been well reported. What goes on behind the scenes of any incoming administration is always a bit of a black box, but Democrats who are interested in influencing the Trump administration in its second term should take note. He is always open for business. Second, watching the evolution of the Republican Party take place right in front of us is incredible, truly. Is this pick going to set up intra party fights among labor and anti labor advocates in the gop? Yes, it will. No political evolution, though, happens without some tension. It is totally undeniable now that Republicans, led by Trump and Vice President Elect JB Vance are working hard to rebrand themselves as a conservative party that can be compatible with both business leaders and unions. I don't know of a single political scientist, pundit or talking head who had this on their bingo card in 2015. Yet here we are. Third, Democrats are still being dragged down by decades old issues like NAFTA and immigration, which Republicans have used to win back unionized working class voters. I really don't know what the play is for Democrats now. Biden was genuinely the most pro union president we've seen in decades. Winning union workers was supposed to be his bread and butter. He literally helped save the Teamsters union pension plan with an infusion of federal funds. And the Teamsters followed that effort by declining to endorse a presidential candidate for the first time since 1996, albeit after Harris had replaced Biden atop the ticket. Now O'Brien seems embedded in Trump's orbit. Biden simply couldn't translate his support into legislation or the goodwill he earned onto Kamala Harris or the party writ large. Looking ahead, Trump and Republicans have to quickly find a way to strike a balance between pushing the Republican ethos of a deregulated, unlocked economy while also courting workers and unions to their cause. Chavez Derimer is clearly part of that plan. What happens next? I genuinely have no idea. I can't imagine anyone does. Chavez Derimer has backed legislation like the Pro act that is simply incompatible with the worldviews of so many high level Republicans and interest groups elsewhere in the Trump's cabinet, and especially in the halls of Congress. If I had to guess, I would say that we're not too far from a genuine internal battle that pits these new GOP factions against each other. I expect that battle to play out not just in public, facing language and political posturing, but also with the legislation introduced to Congress and regulatory changes throughout the executive branch agencies. We're set up to watch the Republican elite and establish them face off against the new Trump right all over again, but this time with business leaders and rich executives on one side and unions and labor advocates on the other. Now think about what the butterfly effect of this kind of internal division could be. For instance, Democrats could recalibrate and try to start picking off free market and disillusioned Republicans who view this as a step too far for the party. How far out of character would an institutionalist approach really be for the party that's over 55% college graduates? Or, conversely, they could double down on competing for working class unionized voters and other labor groups. That wouldn't be too hard to imagine either. Optimistically, there is a world where the lower third of the income strata in the US Suddenly gets more attention and support from political parties over the next four years than it ever has. The giant question is, what does the support look like? Will it be beefing up union protections and making it easier to organize? Will it be massive deregulatory efforts and tax cuts? Will it be healthcare expansions or immigration crackdowns or worker safety laws or childcare funding or minimum wage increases? Again, I have no idea. I'm honestly not sure Trump or the party does either. But for now, Chavez Dreamer is a sign that change and disruption are coming and that the political factions of 2025 won't be the same ones we've gotten used to. We'll be right back after this quick break.
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All right, that is it for my take, which brings us to your questions answered. This one today is actually a note to Self from September 5th. We left a note to ourselves to follow up on a take from last September following Ukraine's Kursk offensive. From time to time, we make a note to self to follow up on issues that we cover that quickly fall out of the public eye, or to circle back on particularly strong takes to see how those situations have progressed. A couple of months ago, when we were researching Ukraine's Kursk offensive, we came across what we thought was a particularly bold take from Paul Schwennissen in Reason. Here's what he wrote. Quote Though it may seem astonishingly premature to say so, my impression after returning from the Russian front is that the war in Ukraine is over and that the powers that be haven't realized it yet. In the Kurian at least, I can personally attest to the eerie, almost surreal inversion of spirits between the people of Russia and the people of Ukraine. The moral scales have now firmly settled on the side of the Ukrainian defenders, and it is far likelier that Russia itself splinters into its constituent republics than that the Ukraine falls to its erstwhile invaders. We had read a lot of editorials about the Kursk offensive that we thought were overly optimistic about Ukraine potentially turning the tide of the war. And even among those we thought Shwenissen stood out, he didn't completely miss the mark. He's right that Ukraine's military is nowhere near its breaking point, but frankly, this take was just wrong. It doesn't look like an end to the war without Ukrainian territorial concessions is anywhere on the horizon at the moment, let alone Russia splintering into constituent republics. Now, I'm not just trying to dunk on Shwenissen here. He's been reporting from the front lines, which takes incredible courage, and he's reporting what he sees accurately. He's just interpreting it through a lens of bias that we all have. If I were embedded with Ukrainian forces on a surprise offensive over enemy lines, I'm sure that would skew my point of view, too. Shwinesen has been writing from the front every couple of months, and I'm eager to read what he says next. But looking back on this writing now, I think it's clear he went way too far in predicting where things were headed. All right, that is it for our note to self, which is tagging in for your questions answered today. I'm going to send it back to John for the rest of the pod and I'll be back tomorrow. Have a good one. Peace.
Isaac Saul
Thanks, Isaac. Here's your under the Radar story for today, folks. The typical cost of Thanksgiving dinner is down from 2023, but remains far higher than it was in 2019. The American Farm Bureau Federation's annual survey, which tracks nationwide prices for a basket of Thanksgiving staples, found that a Thanksgiving dinner for 10 will cost about $58 this year, a 5% decrease from last year, but roughly a 20% increase from pre pandemic prices, not adjusted for inflation. When adjusting for inflation, though, this year's basket is one of the cheapest in decades. Still, 44% of Thanksgiving hosts say they are concerned about the cost of their dinner this year. Axios has this story, and there's a link in today's episode Description all right, next up is our numbers section. The percentage of American workers who were represented by a union in 1983 was 20.1%, according to Pew Research. The percentage of American workers who were represented by a union in 2023 is 10%. The percentage of Americans who approved of Labor Unions in August 2024 was 70%, according to Gallup. The percentage of Americans who approved of labor unions in August of 2016 is 56%. The increase in the percentage of Americans who would like to see labor unions have more influence from 2016 to 2023 is plus 7%. The increase in the percentage of Americans who think labor unions mostly help the U.S. economy from 2016 to 2023 is plus 9%. The percentage of Americans who think the Democratic and Republican parties, respectively, best serve the interests of labor union members is 62% and 27%. And the estimated percentage of voters in the 2024 election from union households was 18%, according to data from AP VoteCast. All right, and last but not least, our have a nice day story. Michelle Kang, owner of the Washington Spirit soccer team, says that women's sports have been undervalued and overlooked for far too long. So she's committed $30 million to U.S. soccer to increase competitive opportunities for female players and to support female coaches and referees. The contribution is the largest ever directed towards girls and women's programs. Michelle Kang's gift will transform soccer for women and girls in the United States, U.S. soccer President Cindy Parlo Cohn said. ESPN has this story and there's a link in today's episode description. All right everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, Please go to readtangle.com and sign up for a membership. You could also head over to tangledmedia.supercast.com and sign up for a premium podcast membership which gets you ad free daily podcasts, Friday editions, Sunday editions, interviews, bonus content and so much more. For those of you celebrating the holiday, I hope you have a wonderful Thanksgiving. And for those of you who don't, I hope you get at least some good time with family and friends. Maybe a little time off of work, some time to relax and some good food while you're at it. Isaac will have a short podcast for you tomorrow and I will return next week. For Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off. Have a fantastic week, y'all. Peace.
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Podcast Summary: Tangle Episode – "Trump’s Pick for Labor Secretary"
Host: Isaac Saul
Release Date: November 26, 2024
Title: Trump’s Pick for Labor Secretary
Description: Independent, non-partisan politics news featuring diverse political arguments and insightful interviews.
In the opening segment of this episode, host Isaac Saul addresses listeners with a personal update and a correction regarding a previous episode. At [04:15], Saul clarifies an error about Representative Lori Chavez Dermer's political affiliation, emphasizing her Republican stance from Oregon, not Democrat from Washington as mistakenly noted in the newsletter. He also informs listeners of an upcoming Thanksgiving break and expresses gratitude to team members who temporarily took over hosting duties during his family emergency.
At [05:51], Isaac Saul introduces the central topic: President Elect Donald Trump's nomination of Oregon Congresswoman Lori Chavez Dermer for the position of Labor Secretary. Chavez Dermer, a narrow loser in her recent reelection bid against Janelle Bynum, is recognized as one of the most pro-union Republicans in Congress. Her nomination is significant as it potentially signals a shift in the GOP's traditionally adversarial stance toward labor unions.
Key Points:
The left views Chavez Dermer's nomination with a mix of optimism and skepticism. Farah Stockman of The New York Times highlights the nomination as potentially the most shocking announcement in Trump's transition, suggesting it may ignite internal conflicts within the GOP between its economic populist wing and traditional business-aligned members ([08:20]).
Zeeshan Aleem of MSNBC questions the effectiveness of the nomination, noting that while Chavez Dermer supports pro-union policies, she may primarily act to project a labor-friendly image without substantial policy shifts ([09:31]).
Celine McNicholas from the Economic Policy Institute outlines specific policies to watch, such as funding for the Department of Labor, protecting workers' rights to overtime, and resisting programs that allow employers to avoid wage theft penalties ([10:00]).
The Republican response is divided. The Wall Street Journal editorial board argues that Chavez Dermer’s pro-union stance could undermine small businesses and franchise models, asserting that policies like the PRO Act “would effectively ban gig jobs and codify the Biden National Labor Relations Board's joint employer standard” ([14:30]).
Eric Woods of Erickson warns that the nomination could alienate traditional Republican voters by aligning too closely with labor unions, which may not resonate with the broader working-class base ([15:45]).
Bhatia Ungar Sargon from American Compass views the nomination positively, suggesting it demonstrates Trump’s commitment to representing working-class Americans by blending pro-labor and conservative policies ([16:20]).
Isaac Saul delves deeper into the implications of Chavez Dermer's nomination ([17:33]), emphasizing several key themes:
Saul underscores the uncertainty surrounding how Chavez Dermer will navigate her role amid conflicting Republican interests and the potential for significant policy debates within the party.
In a reflective segment, Saul revisits a previous prediction by Paul Schwennissen from Reason, who posited that Ukraine’s war was nearing its end and that Russia might splinter into constituent republics ([21:58]). Saul critiques this optimistic forecast, stating, “It doesn’t look like an end to the war without Ukrainian territorial concessions is anywhere on the horizon at the moment,” acknowledging the complexities and ongoing challenges in the conflict.
Saul presents a brief analysis of Thanksgiving dinner costs ([25:29]):
This segment references an Axios report for detailed statistics.
A factual rundown of labor-related statistics ([26:00]):
Michelle Kang, owner of the Washington Spirit soccer team, commits $30 million to U.S. Soccer to enhance opportunities for female players, coaches, and referees ([27:30]). This initiative is hailed as the largest-ever investment in girls' and women's programs, with U.S. Soccer President Cindy Parlo Cohn stating, “Michelle Kang's gift will transform soccer for women and girls in the United States.”
Isaac Saul wraps up the episode by encouraging listener support through memberships and previews upcoming content, including a special Thanksgiving episode. He extends holiday wishes to listeners, emphasizing gratitude and community.
This episode of Tangle provides a comprehensive examination of Trump’s nomination of Lori Chavez Dermer as Labor Secretary, exploring its significance, the varied reactions from both political spectrums, and the potential future implications for the Republican Party and labor policies in the United States. Host Isaac Saul offers insightful analysis, balancing perspectives from different stakeholders to present a nuanced view of this pivotal political development.