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- [00:00]
Isaac Saul
This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Do you ever think about switching insurance companies to see if you could save some cash? Progressive makes it easy to see if you could save when you bundle your home and auto policies. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states. Hey, it's Adam Grant from Work Life, a podcast from ted. This episode is brought to you by freshworks. Freshworks believes that complexity is the enemy of efficiency. So stop wrestling with bloated, expensive service software that takes forever to implement an update where ROI is someday, not today. You've been overcharged and underserved for way too long. Uncomplicate with Fresh Service for IT and Fresh Desk for customer support.
- [00:47]
John Law
And with Freshworks AI assisted service software.
- [00:50]
Isaac Saul
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- [00:58]
John Law
This episode is sponsored by Monday.com Work today moves fast, but Monday.com.
- [01:05]
Isaac Saul
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- [01:08]
John Law
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Isaac Saul
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John Law
Visit us@Monday.com to learn more.
- [01:38]
Isaac Saul
From Executive Producer Isaac Saul. This is Tangle.
- [01:53]
John Law
Good morning, good afternoon and good evening and welcome to the Tangle Podcast, the place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking, and a little bit of my take. I'm your host Isaac Saul, and on today's episode we're going to be talking about Ukraine's drone operation in Russia and what it means for the future of warfare, which there's some interesting implications here. Today is Wednesday, June 4th. Before we jump in to the main podcast, just a reminder that on Friday in the Tangle newsletter we're going to be doing a special reader feedback edition where people write in with some of their thoughts about the piece we did on Zionism last week and we're going to share some of the criticisms and respond to some of them. That's going to be what comes out in the newsletter. And if you have thoughts that you want to share, you can write to staffeadtangle.com in the podcast we're going to do something a little different, a little special, a little separate. I got a text message from Jonah Platt, the host of the Being Jewish podcast, which I went on last year, and Jonah wanted to come on the Tango podcast to talk to me about the piece. I think he's going to come with some questions, probably some pointed questions because I think we see not eye to eye on this and I thought it'd be a very interesting exercise and a very Tangle esque thing to do to have him on the show to kind of talk to me about a piece that I wrote that he disagrees with. I think in some important ways. We'll see. I actually don't really know totally where he stands. He just texted me and said, I want to talk to you about this piece on your show. And Jonah's got a big following and has a big podcast and I really enjoyed going on his podcast. So I accepted and we're going to release that on Friday as part of the the podcast version of a follow up to that piece. So I think it should be a pretty interesting conversation and I'm looking forward to it. Keep your ears out for that. All right. With that, I'm gonna pass it over to John for today's main story and I'll be back for my take.
- [04:06]
Isaac Saul
Thanks, Isaac, and welcome everybody. Here are your quick hits for today. First up, former White House advisor Elon Musk criticized the big beautiful government spending bill back backed by President Donald Trump, calling it a disgusting abomination. The White House acknowledged Musk's comments, but said President Trump stands by the bill. Number two, the Trump administration sent a request to congressional leaders to rescind $9.4 billion in previously approved spending, primarily for foreign aid. Number three, Meta announced a 20 year deal to buy nuclear power from an Illinois plant which the company says will support its artificial intelligence capabilities. Four, President Trump signed an executive order increasing tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%. And number five, the Dutch government dissolves after the conservative Freedom Party pulled out of the country's ruling coalition over disagreements about plans to curb migration. Prime Minister Dick Schoff resigned and the remaining coalition parties will decide whether to continue in another form or hold snap elections. Separately, Mexico's left wing Morena Party is likely to gain firm control over the Supreme Court following the country's judicial elections, expanding its influence in the government. Welcome back everyone. It was an unprecedented and well executed Ukrainian drone operation deep inside Russia this weekend, followed today by a similarly brazen underwater attack on the Russian built bridge connecting the Russian mainland to Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula Russia has occupied now for more than a decade. Called Call it guerrilla tactics, call it asymmetrical warfare, but can Ukraine's bold operations actually force a recalcitrant Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table? On Sunday, Ukraine carried out a coordinated drone attack within Russian territory, hitting dozens of Russian bombers. The attack, called Operation spider's web, used 117 Ukrainian drones hidden at four different air bases across Russia to strike 41 Russian aircraft, according to Ukrainian officials. Ukrainian security services claimed the strikes caused $7 billion in damage and took out over a third of Russia's nuclear capable airplanes. Later on Sunday night, Russia launched 472 drones and seven missiles striking at least 18 locations in Ukraine, with explosions reported in the cities of Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia. The strikes preceded scheduled peace talks in Istanbul, Turkey on Monday. Representatives from both sides said they made no real progress towards a peace deal, though they did agree to an exchange of dead and wounded soldiers. Ukraine's attacks are the deepest strikes into Russia since its full scale ground invasion of Ukraine in 2022, hitting four air bases stretching from the Finnish border to eastern Serbia, including one base 2,800 miles from Ukraine in eastern Russia. The Russian Ministry of Defense also mentioned attacks in Amur Oblast, but damages have not been confirmed. The operation used bomb laden drones hidden in remotely opened roofs of wooden sheds which were loaded onto 18 wheeler trucks and parked near military bases before simultaneously opening and releasing the drones. Independent sources confirmed that Russian Tu95 and Tu22 strategic bombers, as well as an A50, Radar Detection and Command aircraft and supersonic Tu160 bomber were destroyed in the attacks, though the exact number of aircraft destroyed has not been verified. The airplanes Ukraine hit spanned from Soviet era propeller planes in the Tu95 to modern aircraft like the Tu160, the largest combat aircraft in the world, but they are all part of the core platform Russia uses for strategic bombing and battlefield coordination. The Russian drone operation is a significant event in a war that does not appear to be slowing down. Also on Sunday, explosions caused two bridges in western Russia to collapse, with one incident derailing a train, killing seven people and injuring dozens more. Then on Tuesday, Ukraine struck the Kerch bridge connecting Russia and Crimea for the third time since 2022, hitting a support with underwater explosives and damaging Russia's only direct connection to the occupied peninsula. Later that day, a Russian strike on the eastern Ukrainian city of Sumy killed four people and injured 28. Ukraine does not claim credit for the bridge collapses killing civilians in Russia, and the Kerch bridge has since been reopened. Russia acknowledged the losses in its recent strikes but said the impact was smaller than Ukraine claimed. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called Operation Spider's Web a brilliant success and said the drone attacks have been planned for over a year and a half. The United States was not informed of Ukraine's attack in advance, but Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth was given a full briefing afterward. President Donald Trump has not commented on the recent strikes or peace talks. Today we'll get into what the left, right and international writers are saying about the latest in the war and then Isaac's tape.
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John Law
We'll be right back after this quick break.
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Isaac Saul
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Isaac Saul
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But if what Kyiv says is true, 117 relatively cheap drones taking out dozens of planes and causing what one security source estimated to be $7 billion in damage, then the economics of the war have shifted. In late 2022, the Ukrainians struck supply lines across occupied northern parts of Ukraine, causing a swift and embarrassing collapse of Russian positions. In 2023, they hit the Kerch Strait bridge linking Russia to occupied Crimea, and last year they invaded Kursk, Russia proper, exposing the vulnerability of the Russian war machine's borders, Walsh said. On each occasion, the narrative of the war swung back in Ukraine's favorite But no time is it needed more than this week. After months in which the vital plank of US Support has been in doubt and as Russian and Ukrainian delegations met for a second round of peace talks in Turkey for the Council on Foreign Relations, Michael C. Horowitz called the operation the future of drone warfare. Ukraine's devastating attack demonstrates once again that we have entered the era of precise mass in war. The combination of AI and autonomous weapons, precision guidance and commercial manufacturing mean that low cost precision strikes are now accessible to almost any state or militant group, Horowitz said. The attack will not change the balance of forces along Ukraine's front lines, but it does show the country's ability to strike in ways that will undoubtedly shape Russian expectations on the future of the conflict. For example, the damage Ukraine allegedly caused to at least 40 Russian aircraft, including valuable strategic platforms that would cost billions to replace, proves yet again Ukraine's determination to resist Russia's invasion and continued military operations. Precision strike used to be something only the most advanced states could access, and traditional precision strike weapons like the Tomahawk cruise missile cost millions of dollars per shot. Now more actors have the ability to deliver precise strikes at even greater distances, even if their systems are not incredibly sophisticated, horowitz said. This ability to use precise mass capabilities at speed and scale, and especially when fused with advancing AI for guidance places enormous pressure on defensive measures. Think of the US Navy, which has spent billions of dollars in the Red Sea in recent years to defend itself and commercial shipping from inexpensive, precise mass systems used by Yemen's Houthi rebel alright, that is it for what the left is saying, which brings us to what the right is saying. Some on the right say the operation shows Ukraine's resilience and should reinvigorate US Support in their war effort. Others say the success of the mission will be short lived, the Wall Street Journal editorial board wrote. Ukraine still isn't defeated. Ukraine's daring weekend drone attack on military bases deep inside Russia is is a brilliant example of creativity and resolve, Ukraine sources say it was able to smuggle drones across Russia, fire them at close proximity to air bases and destroy numerous aircraft. The planes reportedly included bombers that fire cruise missiles at Ukraine and some that can carry nuclear payloads the board said the drone raids won't alter the course of the war, but they show the ability of Ukraine to strike far from its border with Russia. The intelligence required to pull off the operation, supposedly in the planning for 18 months, is also reason for the Kremlin to be discomfited. Russia still has the advantage in firepower, especially in missiles that need to be intercepted. With Ukraine's dwindling supply of air defense interceptors, the Trump administration says it wants to stop the killing, but the best way to do that is to supply more air defenses to Kyiv, the board wrote. Republicans want to defer to Mr. Trump, but senators aren't potted plants. Sooner rather than later, they need to show they mean what they say about helping a desperate ally fight for its freedom against a martyring dictator who won't stop if he succeeds in Ukraine. In Unherd, Jennifer Kavanaugh argued the drone attack may do Ukraine more harm than good. Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb carried a high shock value not only for its creativity, but also for the targets chosen and the resulting visuals of Russian aircraft aflame, Kavanaugh said. Any Ukrainian victory will be Pyrrhic. However, the loss of some of its strategic long range bombers, if confirmed will would undoubtedly be a blow to Russia's military force and will be especially concerning to Moscow given the role the aircraft play in the country's nuclear deterrent. But the costs imposed by Ukraine's attack will not prevent Russia from continuing its war of attrition on Ukraine's eastern front or force it back off its campaign of drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian cities. Even in the attack's aftermath, Russia has a large and capable air force ready to support the war in Ukraine. Just as importantly, the Kremlin's military advantage will be unaffected by the latest strike, Russia's defense production will proceed unabated, and Moscow will continue to exploit Ukraine's shortages of manpower and weapons to take additional ground in Ukraine's eastern regions, whittling away Kyiv's remaining sovereign territory, kavanaugh wrote. Far from pushing for peace, Russia is likely to retaliate by escalating attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure or surging Russian forces along the line of contact. Alright, that is it for what the left and the right are saying. Which brings us to what writers abroad are saying. Some writers say the operation is likely to cause paranoia in Russian society. Others call on Ukraine's allies to step up their support. In the Moscow Times, Kevin Riel said the attack is a recipe for Russian paranoia. Institutional paranoia is part of the Russian government's philosophy the political unity is strength while political division is weakness. If leaders can maintain unity of mind and purpose among the Russian population, especially concerning Ukraine, then Russia appears strong and appearing strong is the objective, riel wrote. However, paranoia is fragile. To maintain it, the Russian security system must portray itself as invincible, catching genuine and imagined malefactors and broadcasting their arrests to blur the line between real and illusion. What happens when real attacks occur and the bona fide threat becomes more fearsome than the security system itself? Nevertheless, Ukraine's audacious drone attack undermines the Russian security system itself just as much as it poses a military threat. The reality of the threat risks exposing the security system as incompetent. Heavy handed security measures didn't work, riel said. The FSB will crack down hard on Russian society and marshal its domestic security powers and in response to these drone attacks. But the FSB itself was the victim. If it cannot monitor threats under its own nose, what can it do? Are the FSB's repressive KGB like tactics meaningless? For the center for European Policy Analysis, Edward Lucas called the operation the most audacious attack of the war. Russian military aviation planners will hurry to find hardened bunkers for their remaining warplanes. But so much of an advanced society's life happens in the open air. What about civilian airliners sitting at airports or critical infrastructure? Lucas wrote. Russian planners will doubtless learn lessons from this and try similar stunts in Ukraine now or against NATO later. Western planners should be worrying about that. It may also impress the commander in chief in the White House. He likes winners. Putin now looks like a loser, humiliated by a smaller, weaker country. Instead of slowboating discussions about Ukraine's entry into NATO, Western countries should be hurrying to ask their friends in Kyiv for defense and security assistance against Russia. In the meantime, they should send money, lucas said. The immediate effect is in the war of narratives. Ukraine has given a clear answer to Donald Trump's taunt, you don't have the cards. Not only has it shown new capabilities, but it also deployed them without the help, consent or even knowledge of its Western supporters. All right, let's head over to Isaac for his take.
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John Law
All right, that is it for what the left and the right are saying. Which brings us to my take. What Ukraine just did has fascinating and frightening technological implications for the future of warfare. Not just for them, but for us, too. Some details of the mission are still unclear, but it appears the Ukrainian army damaged or destroyed the a third of the bombers that Russia uses as strategic cruise missile carriers without putting a Single soldier on the ground or crossing a single fighter jet into Russian airspace. While the attack may not provide a decisive blow, it's a reminder that Russia has serious vulnerabilities in the war and that Ukraine continues to do a lot with the little it has to stop itself from being toppled by a much larger, better armed adversary. Throughout the conflict, Ukraine has leveraged an interesting mix of old and new technologies to conduct military operations that have surprised Russia and at times, times even the United States. The latest operation demonstrates the vital importance drones are going to play in the next era of conflict across the globe. Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, drones were mostly thought of as surveillance tools. Now, the one way attack drones executing low cost and high impact strikes like this are becoming ubiquitous. These kinds of strikes allow less advanced militaries like Ukraine's to conduct precision strikes that used to be reserved for the most sophisticated militaries like Russia's or like ours. Consider the implications for future conflicts. Military infrastructures will become increasingly vulnerable to attacks like this, even in secure bases deep in a country's interior. Indeed, some writers are already raising red flags about how a country like China could conduct much more sophisticated versions of this attack on US soil and how woefully unprepared the US Currently is to defend against such an attack. I fully expect advanced militaries across the globe to respond to this attack by by investing more in smaller drones like those Ukraine is producing thousands per day, according to some reports, as well as better battery technology to power those drones and explosives tailored specifically for these extremely light aircraft to carry. I also want to spare some words on the reaction to Ukraine's attack from the punditry. Some people immediately clung to the fact that President Trump was uninformed of the drone operation, as if this somehow undermines its success in some way. Others asked who gave Zelenskyy the authority to attack Russia, apparently forgetting his country is at war and doesn't have to ask somebody for permission to fight. This has been a consistent theme of the war. Ukraine is defending itself against an invader. Yet what it is or isn't allowed to do is constantly policed by people who seem to believe it should limit its options to the menu the United States provides for it. So again, a reality check. Strikes like this, literally bombing aircraft its enemy is using to fight a war against it, are obviously well within Ukraine's rights. Ukraine does not need US approval to conduct such an operation, and the US shouldn't expect Ukraine to coordinate with it when it's actively threatening to pull its support. Zelenskyy seems to understand the basic fact that no cavalry is coming, that winning the war, surviving it until a favorable deal for peace emerges, is his only option. Putin gave us a clear reminder nine days ago, then another on Sunday, another on Monday, and another on Tuesday, that he has no interest in peace. And I suspect the only way to get him to come to the table on a reasonable deal is to make the reality undeniable that this war is bad for him and bad for Russia. Apparently the death of hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers is not doing the trick. So maybe the destruction of conspicuous parts of the Russian military will help. In plain terms, Ukraine just destroyed a huge swath of valuable Russian military infrastructure on Russian soil, and it appears they did it without killing a single civilian. That is a tremendous feat of military ingenuity, given that they are defending themselves from an invasion Putin could end at any time. It's also the kind of attack that keeps them on a moral high ground. For all of this, they should get little else besides praise. And they may even have gained some leverage towards forcing an acceptable peace deal to permanently end the war. We'll be right back after this quick break.
- [23:36]
Isaac Saul
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- [24:29]
John Law
All right, that is it for my take. Which brings us to your questions answered. This one's from Caroline in Oakland, California. Caroline said, I have some questions about Gavin Newsom's recent posts online. I saw some videos online that he is trying to negotiate trade deals with other countries independently from the Trump administration. Is that something he can legally do? I also saw that he is trying to encourage Canadians to travel to California. I'd love to hear your thoughts on this. Okay, let's start with the easy stuff first. Yes, California Governor Gavin Newsom is seeking trade deals with international trading partners. No, governors do not have the power to negotiate tariff deals with foreign governments that is to say Newsom cannot impose tariffs on other countries or ignore the ones that President Trump and the federal government authorizes, but he can offer incentives to private companies, domestic and abroad, to bring their business to California. So while he can't legally negotiate a trade deal without the federal government, Newsom does have significant weight to throw around. California now has the fourth largest economy in the world, so the state's governor has more leverage than any other state level politician in the country. As just one example, retailers who want to sell to the entire US Market comply with California policies, making them de facto standards for the rest of the country. That means you have to buy mattresses with flame retardants California requires. Newsom can also promote tourism, and you can see him appealing to Canadians to come visit California in videos like one we link to in today's newsletter. As Newsom says in the video, some 2 million Canadians visited California last year, a full 13% of California's 15 million annual visitors, visitors and part of its massive $157 billion tourism industry. So it is certainly in the governor's interest to keep that flow of tourists coming in. In doing so, it's also in his interest to distance himself from Trump's combative international policies, especially as foreign travel spending in the US is expected to decline by about 7% this year. For what it's worth, I think there are anecdotal signs this is already happening. A few weeks ago I got my hair cut in Times Square in Manhattan and my barber told me that about 20% of his clientele, typically tourists, but they've basically disappeared in the last few weeks. He believes Trump's rhetoric toward foreigners and the immigration crackdown has scared a lot of people away. Who wants to get searched at the airport for four hours when you land at jfk? He asked me. This obviously is just one unverified account from one barber. But I think these concerns are why a lot of states and areas that rely on foreign tourism are expecting to see drops this year. And I think Newsom is trying to mitigate that. In my view, Newsom is basically doing two things. One, protecting his state's interests and two, preparing for a 2028 presidential run. As I said, when the House Freedom Caucus pushed its agenda under President Joe Biden, I fully support politicians maximizing their power to pursue the goals the voters put them there to pursue. I also think it's generally good when power is diffused from the national level to the state level. So I like it when governors and state legislatures do business apart from the president or Congress. And for what it's worth, Newsom isn't the only governor doing this. Governors in states from Washington to Maine are trying to court Canadian businesses to their states by trying to distance themselves from Washington. So while we should keep Newsom's political motivations in mind when considering these moves, I don't see any issue with Newsom or any other governor using their leverage to protect their states. All right, that is it for your questions answered. I'm going to send it back to John for the rest of the pod and I'll see you guys tomorrow. Have a good one. Peace.
- [28:07]
Isaac Saul
Thanks Isaac. Here's your under the Radar story for today folks. On Tuesday, the Trump administration rescinded a Biden era directive to healthcare providers performing emergency abortions that they are protected under federal law, even those operating in states with abortion bans. Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra issued the guidance in 2022, shortly after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, intending to ensure that emergency abortion provide would not deny care out of fear of prosecution. The Trump administration said the policy does not reflect the policy of this administration, though it will continue to enforce a federal law requiring emergency rooms to perform necessary care for anyone seeking it. Axios has this story and there's a link in today's episode Description alright, next up is our numbers section. The estimated number of Russian Tu95 bombers that were operational prior to Ukraine's June 1 strikes on Russian air bases was 36 out of 57, according to Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson Colonel Yuri Inant. The estimated number of Russian Tu95 bombers that were destroyed in the strikes is seven, according to a senior Western official. The number of Russian military aircraft verified to have sustained damage in the strikes is 12, according to a New York Times analysis. The approximate number of long range drones launched by Russia since late 2022 is 20,000, according to Bloomberg. The proportion of damage and destruction to Russian equipment caused by the drones in the war is 60 to 70%, according to the Royal United Services Institute. The average amount in square miles that Russia's military has advanced into Ukrainian territory per week in 2025 is 16, according to a Bloomberg analysis. The average amount in square miles that Russia's military advanced into Ukrainian territory per week between mid August 2024 and the end of the year is 48. The estimated percentage of Ukrainian territory seized by Russia since January 2025 is 0.15%, and the approximate distance from the front lines of the war in miles of Russia's base in the Irkutsk region which was targeted in the drone strikes, is 2,600. And last but not least, our have a nice day story. China is the world's biggest air polluter, but a recent analysis by a climate reporting website found that China's emissions are on the decline. Over the last 12 months, China's emissions have decreased 1%, a drop attributed to the country's recent embrace of green energy projects, driven by a 5.8% reduction in power sector emissions. Analysts observed a 1.6% year on year decline in the first quarter of 2025, leading some analysts to predict that this trend will continue throughout 2025. Positive news has this story and there's a link in today's episode Description.
- [30:54]
John Law
All.
- [30:54]
Isaac Saul
Right everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, Please go to retangle.com where you can sign up for a newsletter membership, podcast membership or a bundled membership that gets you a discount on both. We'll be right back here tomorrow. For Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off. Have a great day y' all. Peace.
- [31:13]
John Law
Our Executive Editor and founder is me, Isaac Saul and our Executive Producer is John. Today's episode was edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Our editorial staff is led by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman with Senior Editor Will K. Back and Associate Editors Hunter Casperson, Audrey Moorhead, Bailey Saul, Lindsey Knuth and Kendall White. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. To learn more about Tangle and to sign up for a membership, please visit our website@readtangle.com.
- [31:51]
Isaac Saul
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