Tangle Podcast Episode Summary: Ukraine's Surprise Attack in Russia

Podcast Information:

• Title: Tangle
• Host/Author: Isaac Saul
• Description: Independent, non-partisan politics news where you'll hear the best arguments from across the political spectrum on the news of the day. Plus, fascinating interviews with people in the political world.
• Episode: Ukraine's Surprise Attack in Russia
• Release Date: June 4, 2025

1. Introduction

In this episode of Tangle, host Isaac Saul delves into Ukraine's unprecedented military maneuvers against Russia, exploring the implications for modern warfare and the broader geopolitical landscape. The discussion is enriched with perspectives from across the political spectrum and insights from international analysts.

2. Overview of Ukraine's Drone Operations

Operation Spider's Web

Ukraine executed a bold and strategically significant drone attack within Russian territory, marking the deepest incursion since Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. Dubbed Operation Spider's Web, the mission involved:

• Deployment of 117 drones: Concealed in wooden sheds and remotely released near four different air bases across Russia.
• Targets struck: 41 Russian aircraft, including strategic bombers and nuclear-capable planes, resulting in an estimated $7 billion in damage (00:04:05).
• Impact on Russia: Reports indicate the destruction of a third of Russia's nuclear-capable airplanes, including Soviet-era Tu-95 bombers and the modern Tu-160 Supersonic strategic bombers (00:04:05).

Subsequent Russian Retaliation

In response, Russia launched 472 drones and seven missiles, targeting 18 locations in Ukraine, including Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia (00:04:05). These strikes coincided with scheduled peace talks in Istanbul, Turkey, which yielded minimal progress, emphasizing the persistent volatility of the conflict.

3. Reactions from the Political Spectrum

a. Left's Perspective

CNN's Nick Patton-Walsh commends Ukraine's ingenuity, noting that the drone strikes expose significant vulnerabilities within Russia's military infrastructure:

"Ukraine's wily drone strikes expose Russia's vulnerability and could shift the war's narrative." (07:01)

He highlights the strategic shift brought about by low-cost, high-impact drone technology, suggesting that Ukraine's actions could alter the economic dynamics of the conflict.

CFR's Michael C. Horowitz views the operation as a harbinger for future warfare:

"Ukraine's devastating attack demonstrates once again that we have entered the era of precision mass in war." (08:01)

He emphasizes the role of AI and autonomous weapons in making precision strikes more accessible to various actors, potentially reshaping global military strategies.

b. Right's Perspective

Wall Street Journal Editorial Board lauds the operation as a testament to Ukraine's resilience and creativity:

"Ukraine's daring weekend drone attack on military bases deep inside Russia is a brilliant example of creativity and resolve." (08:34)

However, they caution that while impressive, the strikes may not decisively alter the war's trajectory. They advocate for increased U.S. support in the form of air defenses to bolster Ukraine's capabilities.

Unherd's Jennifer Kavanaugh offers a more skeptical view, arguing that the operation could backfire:

"Any Ukrainian victory will be Pyrrhic." (08:34)

She contends that while the attack inflicts damage, it may not deter Russia from continuing its aggressive strategies, potentially leading to escalated retaliation against Ukrainian infrastructure.

c. International Perspectives

Kevin Riel of The Moscow Times warns of heightened paranoia within Russian society as a result of the drone attacks:

"Ukraine's audacious drone attack undermines the Russian security system itself just as much as it poses a military threat." (09:08)

He suggests that such operations could erode public confidence in the Russian government's ability to maintain security and control.

Edward Lucas from the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) describes the attack as the "most audacious" of the war:

"Russian military aviation planners will hurry to find hardened bunkers for their remaining warplanes." (09:08)

Lucas emphasizes the need for Western planners to anticipate similar tactics from other nations, such as China, and to bolster defenses accordingly.

4. Host's Analysis

Isaac Saul provides a nuanced take on the implications of Ukraine's drone operations:

"Ukraine just destroyed a huge swath of valuable Russian military infrastructure on Russian soil, and it appears they did it without killing a single civilian." (19:13)

He underscores the technological advancements that made such an operation possible, highlighting the transformative role of drones in modern warfare. Saul warns that this development poses significant challenges not just for Russia, but globally, as military infrastructures become increasingly vulnerable to similar attacks.

He also critiques the politicization of Ukraine's actions, particularly criticisms focused on President Trump's lack of prior knowledge about the operation. Saul argues that Ukraine, as an invaded nation, retains the autonomy to defend itself without seeking approval from Western allies, advocating for greater support to bolster Ukraine's defensive capabilities.

5. Listener Questions Answered

Question from Caroline in Oakland, California:

Caroline inquires about Governor Gavin Newsom's efforts to negotiate trade deals independently from the Trump administration and his encouragement for Canadians to visit California.

Response:

Isaac explains that while Governors like Newsom cannot legally negotiate international trade deals or impose tariffs (00:24:06), they can incentivize private companies to establish business ties with their states. California, being the fourth largest economy globally, wields significant influence, often setting de facto national standards. Additionally, Newsom's promotion of tourism, particularly to Canadian visitors, aims to sustain California's robust $157 billion tourism industry amidst declining foreign travel spending in the U.S.

Isaac posits that Newsom's actions serve dual purposes: protecting California's economic interests and positioning himself for a potential 2028 presidential run. He also notes a broader trend of governors distancing their policies from the federal administration to attract international business and tourism.

6. Under-the-Radar Story

Isaac highlights a significant policy shift:

Revocation of Biden-Era Directive on Emergency Abortions

• Background: In 2022, former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra issued guidance protecting healthcare providers performing emergency abortions under federal law, even in states with restrictive bans.

• Trump Administration's Action: The current administration has rescinded this directive, aligning with its policy stance, though it maintains the enforcement of federal laws mandating necessary emergency care in hospitals (00:28:06).

This development underscores the ongoing tug-of-war over reproductive rights in the U.S., reflecting broader political realignments and their impact on healthcare policies.

7. Numbers and Statistics

Key metrics related to the drone attacks and the broader conflict include:

• Russian Tu-95 Bombers Operational Before June 1 Strikes: 36 out of 57 (00:28:06)
• Russian Tu-95 Bombers Destroyed in Strikes: 7 (00:28:06)
• Russian Military Aircraft Damaged in Strikes: 12 verified by The New York Times (00:28:06)
• Long-Range Drones Launched by Russia Since Late 2022: 20,000 (00:28:06)
• Proportion of Russian Equipment Damaged by Drones in the War: 60-70% (00:28:06)
• Russia's Weekly Land Advance into Ukrainian Territory in 2025: 16 square miles (00:28:06)
• Russia's Weekly Land Advance into Ukrainian Territory (Mid-August 2024 - End of Year): 48 square miles (00:28:06)
• Percentage of Ukrainian Territory Seized by Russia Since January 2025: 0.15% (00:28:06)
• Distance from Front Lines to Russia's Irkutsk Base Targeted in Drone Strikes: 2,600 miles (00:28:06)

These figures highlight the scale and intensity of drone warfare in the ongoing conflict, as well as the persistent territorial advances by Russian forces.

8. Conclusion

This episode of Tangle offers a comprehensive examination of Ukraine's strategic drone attacks in Russia, situating them within the larger context of modern warfare and international politics. Through diverse perspectives from across the political spectrum and expert analyses, listeners gain a nuanced understanding of the evolving dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its broader implications for global security.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• Nick Patton-Walsh (CNN) at 07:01:

  "Ukraine's wily drone strikes expose Russia's vulnerability and could shift the war's narrative."

• Michael C. Horowitz (CFR) at 08:01:

  "Ukraine's devastating attack demonstrates once again that we have entered the era of precise mass in war."

• Wall Street Journal Editorial Board at 08:34:

  "Ukraine's daring weekend drone attack on military bases deep inside Russia is a brilliant example of creativity and resolve."

• Jennifer Kavanaugh (Unherd) at 08:34:

  "Any Ukrainian victory will be Pyrrhic."

• Kevin Riel (The Moscow Times) at 09:08:

  "Ukraine's audacious drone attack undermines the Russian security system itself just as much as it poses a military threat."

• Edward Lucas (CEPA) at 09:08:

  "Russian military aviation planners will hurry to find hardened bunkers for their remaining warplanes."

• Isaac Saul at 19:13:

  "Ukraine just destroyed a huge swath of valuable Russian military infrastructure on Russian soil, and it appears they did it without killing a single civilian."

This detailed summary encapsulates the key discussions, insights, and conclusions from the episode, providing a thorough overview for those who haven't listened to the podcast.