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- [00:00]
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- [01:25]
Isaac Saul
From executive producer Isaac Saul, this is Tangle.
- [01:39]
Good morning, good afternoon and good evening and welcome to the Tangle podcast, a place we get views from across the political spectrum, some independent thinking and a little bit of my take. I'm your host Isaac Saul and on today's episode we're going to be talking about the floods in Texas. I got to warn you guys up front, horrible story, just devastating. I mean there, yeah, I'll talk about in my take, it's just really, really awful. But there are some important questions that I think need to be answered and we're gonna try and answer them today while also, you know, being forthright and taking into account the tragedy at hand. So we're gonna do that. It is Monday, July 7th. If you are just tuning in back with us after a little bit of the Fourth of July break. I hope you had a good break. Be sure to go check out the essay I published last week on Loving America on Thursday, which sent us off into the 4th of July break. And that's also up in our podcast feed. And then if you're interested, the live stream that we had on our YouTube channel where Camille and I sat down and talked about his period piece on the 2020 racial reckoning. That stream is up on our YouTube channel. You can go find it there right now. With that, I'm going to send it over to John for today's main topic and I'll be back for my take.
- [03:09]
John Law
Thanks Isaac and welcome everybody. I hope many of you were able to have a wonderful fourth of July weekend and enjoy some of the festivities and time with family and friends. And I just want to say that my thoughts and prayers are with the people of Texas who are experiencing the fallout of the tragic floods. Here are your quick hits for today. First up, President Donald Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill act into law on Friday after the House of Representatives voted to approve the bill on Thursday. Number two, the Justice Department and Federal Bureau of Investigation have reportedly concluded that they have no evidence that Jeffrey Epstein blackmailed public figures, kept a client list or was murdered. The agencies also released video footage from Epstein's prison cell the night he died, which purports to show no foul play was involved. 3. President Trump said he plans to restart talks with China this week over a deal to seal the social media app TikTok's US branch. Number four President Trump said he would send letters on Monday to 12 countries outlining the US tariffs they would face if trade deals are not reached. Separately, Trump stated that he would levy an additional 10% tariff on any country, aligning themselves with anti American policies of the intergovernmental organization brics. And number five, former White House advisor and Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced his intention to form a new political party called the America Party. Catastrophic flooding in Texas where the Lieutenant Governor is now saying there are children unaccounted for from a girls camp in.
- [04:54]
Isaac Saul
The sea for the parents who are waiting, particularly that had children in Camp Mystic. Camp mystic is a camp that has over 750 kids. Right now there are 20 some that aren't accounted for. That does not mean they've been lost. They could be in a tree, they could be out of communication. We're praying for all of those missing to be found alive.
- [05:24]
John Law
On Friday, flash flooding caused catastrophic damage in Texas Hill Country, a region of central and south Texas, killing at least 89 people as of Monday morning, 41 people are still missing and rescue operations remain underway. The majority of the fatalities occurred in Kerr county, where 75 deaths have been reported. Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick said that the Guadalupe river rose about 26ft in 45 minutes Friday morning and the city of Kerrville said The river reached its second highest height on record on Sunday. President Donald Trump signed a major disaster declaration for the county, activating the Federal Emergency Management Agency to assist local officials with the disaster response. On Wednesday, the Texas Division of Emergency Management announced it had activated emergency response resources in anticipation of possible flash flooding in the region. The next day, the National Weather Service's Austin San Antonio office posted a flood watch for parts of western Hill country, saying it expected pockets of heavy rain. Early Friday morning, the NWS office posted repeated flash flood warnings, culminating in a flash flood emergency at 5:23am Central Time. The NWS reserves emergency advisories for exceedingly rare situations when extreme heavy rain is leading to a severe threat to human life. The flooding was particularly devastating at Camp Mystic, a Christian summer camp for girls located along the Guadalupe in Hunt, Texas. At least 27 campers and counselors were killed, and 10 girls and one counselor from the camp are still missing. As of Monday morning. The camp's director was also killed while attempting to rescue campers. The intensity of the storm prompted questions about whether local and regional weather services issued proper warnings or accurately predicted the scale of the weather event. The first warning of life threatening flash flooding in Kerrville was issued at 1:14am Central Time, triggering an alert on cell phones in the area. However, many phones along the river may have not had service or or users may have had emergency weather alerts turned off. Furthermore, Kerr county does not have weather sirens, which are used in other areas where severe weather events are common. Tom Fahey, the legislative director for the union that represents weather service workers, claimed that key positions at the local NWS offices were unfilled during the storm, suggesting the Trump administration's budget cuts and attempts to reduce the federal workforce caused the vacancies. However, Greg Waller, a service coordination hydrologist with the NWS West Gulf River Forecast center in Fort Worth, called its staffing adequate, adding, this was us doing our job to the best of our abilities. More than 1,700 people have taken part in rescue operations since Friday, and over 850 people have been rescued as of Saturday. As the efforts continue, a large portion of south and Central Texas remain under flash flood warnings until Monday. Today, we'll break down the latest on the floods with views from the left, right and Reuters in Texas and then Isaac's tape.
- [08:43]
Isaac Saul
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- [09:53]
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- [10:30]
John Law
Alright, first up, let's start with some agreement. Riders on all sides mourn the loss of life in the floods. Many commentators say the state and weather services must improve their warning systems and preparedness measures. Alright, let's go on to what the left is saying. Many on the left argue the Trump administration cuts are hurting agencies ability to respond to these disasters. Others say climate change makes forecasting the severity of storms like this more difficult. In the New York Times, Mary Ann Tierney wrote, america's emergency lifeline is fraying. When a flash flood inundates your town or a wildfire devours your neighborhood, you expect the federal government to show up fast, focused and fully mobilized. That expectation underpins our national resilience but today that system is cracking. The help Americans rely on in their darkest hours is in danger of arriving late, underpowered or not at all, tierney said. Since January, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which helps people before, during and after disasters, has lost more than 20% of its permanent staff, its most experienced field ready responders. Thousands of temporary employees remain on the job, but their contracts are running out. These are people trained to work with disaster survivors. Mr. Trump recently announced his intention to phase out Fema after the 2025 hurricane season and shift long term recovery responsibilities to states or other parts of the federal government. That may appeal to those who want a smaller federal footprint, but the reality is that states are not ready to absorb this role, tierney wrote. And that's the heart of the problem. This isn't a thoughtful rebalancing of responsibilities. Critical government tasks are being dumped on state and local partners who are without the staffing, funding or infrastructure to succeed. Yes, we do need to modernize. But recovery isn't a handoff. It's a partnership. What we are witnessing isn't a system evolving, it's a system unraveling. In the Guardian, Eric Holthouse said the flooding reveals the limitations of disaster forecasting under the climate crisis, even though watches and warnings were issued on time throughout the disaster, contrasting what local officials have said in press conferences. Rainfall totals specified in the first flash flood watch were about half of what ultimately fell, holthouse wrote. Current weather forecasting technology is capable of knowing that near record rainfall may occur somewhere in a given region about a day in advance. But knowing exactly how much and in which part of a specific river's drainage basin over hilly terrain makes flood forecasting much more difficult, analogous to predicting exactly which neighborhood a tornado might strike a day ahead of time. Though it's unclear to what extent staffing shortages across the NWs complicated the advance notice that local officials had of an impending flooding disaster. It's clear that this was a complex, compound tragedy of a type that climate warming is making more frequent, holthaus said. Rainfall intensity in Central Texas has been trending upward for decades, and this week's rains were enhanced by the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry, which made landfall in northern Mexico last week. The mix of berries circulation and climate warming helped create conditions of record high atmospheric moisture content over Central Texas. Alright, that is it for what the left is saying, which brings us to what the right is saying. Many on the right say the floods are a tragic reminder of our continued vulnerability to nature. Others pushed back on the notion that the Trump administration cuts contributed to the disaster in hot air, David Strom said no amount of government spending can prevent natural disasters. The first slander that the NWS fell down on the job and failed to warn that floods were imminent is just false. The first warnings were put out about 12 hours before the flash flood updated flood warnings this time flash flood warnings came out hours before and anybody with a weather radio or a smartphone should have been warned, strom wrote. Further, the NWS had more than doubled its staff in the region when it looked like storms might be coming, paying three people overtime to ensure that information was gathered and dispersed as quickly as possible. Flash floods happen, and while tragedies of the scale of the one in Texas are thankfully rare, people dying in flash floods is not. No amount of government spending will stop that from being a reality, strom wrote. Whatever people think, we have not tamed nature. The best we can do is give people warnings about the dangers that exist. But if you think governments can prevent bad things from happening, you are deluded. And if you think that warnings will prevent tragedies, you are also mistaken. In his substack, Erik Woods Ericsson criticized the left's response to the floods. Democrats, many more than the number of Republicans who suggested the Biden administration steered hurricanes for political gain, along with members of the American press corps, have ghoulishly rushed to blame the Trump administration for the deaths in Texas. Some of them have even mocked Texas for voting for the instruments of its citizens deaths, erickson wrote. There is no evidence the cuts impacted Texas. In fact, by all professional accounts, the meteorological services and local media all work together well to raise alarms. Normal people do not rush to assign blame to politicians. The ghouls seek to find political advantage in seeking that political advantage. As we've seen in the national press coverage over the last 48 hours, blame is prioritized over heroism, erickson said. The stories are there of the camp counselor who saved as many girls as possible, the Coast Guard rescue swimmer who saved 165 people, the HEB staff who sprang into action to help the area, and countless others, some losing their lives in the process. But those who worship government, the ghouls of disaster, elevate the political process over those who went through the process of rescuing their neighbors. Alright, that is it for what the left and the right are saying. Which brings us to what writers in Texas are saying. Some Texan writers say the region needs a full review of early warning systems and disaster response policies. Others note that while these kinds of storms are endemic to Texas and the state can still do more to protect residents The Dallas Morning News editorial board wrote about the what ifs of the disaster. It's hard to know what words to share in a moment of such unimaginable pain and shock as the one our state is experiencing right now. The loss of so much life of little girls from all over Texas camping near a riverbank of grandmas and grandpas and mothers and fathers. People swept away from us so suddenly it defies understanding, the board said. We are Texans and we understand that our rivers are dual beings, that they can shift from gently rolling water to massive surges before our eyes. But even by that understanding, what happened on July 4th exceeds anything most of us can remember. Texas river flooding is unlike most natural disasters, not only in its speed and ferocity, but but in its unpredictability. Rainfall frequently triggers flash flood warnings, but the severity of the actual flooding is so variable that many people too often disregard those warnings, the board wrote. State and local officials need to wrestle with improved warning systems. We need to understand whether improved staffing or technology at either the National Weather Service or the national oceanic and Atmospheric Administration could give more accurate advanced warning. Local officials, meanwhile, must review their own practices and policies. In the Eyewall, Matt Lanza explored the weather that led to a horrible Texas flooding tragedy. As is often the case in interior Texas, one of the culprits involved last night was the remnant of a tropical storm. Remember Tropical Storm Barry? It lasted all of 12 hours before coming ashore in Mexico. Because of this, you had abundant moisture coming from that storm's source region in the Gulf. You had strong moisture transportation coming northward as well with a strong low level jet stream, lanza said. So tallying that altogether, a remnant tropical storm moisture levels in the 99th percentile or higher, forced upward motion due to geography and wind direction and plentiful instability. That's a recipe for flash flooding. So how do you go from flash flooding to catastrophic flash flooding? Because the difference is clearly enormous. When you put those parameters in concert with a weather pattern that allows for maximum efficiency of rainfall, a monsoonal pattern and slow movement as well as geography that allows for rapid buildup of water on dry ground and riverbeds that funnel that through an area, that's when you flip from ordinary to potentially tragic, lanza wrote. We need to think much bigger than just the areas impacted this time and more about flash flood Alley as a whole. Flooding risk is high in Texas. People learn to live with it in some ways, but something like this absolutely cannot happen again. Alright, let's head over to Isaac for his take.
- [19:59]
Isaac Saul
Alright, that is it for the left and the right are saying. Which brings us to my take. So one of the core principles here at Tangle is to be human. In thinking about how to deliver and analyze the news, I found that adding the genuinely human touch, some personality, some authenticity, helps to reach people from all different backgrounds. On days like today, though, it's not as hard to be human as it is to just find the words. I just, I don't know what to say. Nightmarish, horrific, devastating. Those words don't seem sufficient to describe a group of elementary school age children being overrun by rushing floodwaters. While sleeping soundly at a summer camp, I read one story of a father trudging through the debris on the banks of the Guadalupe river trying to find the body of his eight year old daughter who was still missing, and I just had to stop. As unimaginable and heartbreaking as it is to put yourself in the shoes of these kids or their families, their situation demands accountability. I've seen a number of conservatives criticize Democrats for, quote, unquote, using this tragedy to hammer President Trump's cuts to the national oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or noaa. Scoring political points in the wake of a tragedy may be distasteful, but it's far from new behavior. Only a few months ago, Republicans were using the horrors of Hurricane Helene in North Carolina to hammer Biden. In fact, even in this case, DHS Secretary Kristi Noem is already justifying Trump's reforms by pointing the finger at the National Weather Service, which operates under the noaa. This is politics and it's how it's played now, whether we like it or not. Personally, I have two big questions. Number one, how did the systems in place fail in Central Texas? And number two, did NOAA cuts in any way cause or exasperate those failures? To answer the first question, I think it's worth going through what transpired. The NWS sent out a series of increasingly urgent flash flood warnings throughout the night. Unfortunately, Kerr county only implemented a cell phone alert system. Many counselors at Camp mystic did not have cell service, and floodwaters rose in the dead of the night, and they rose incredibly fast. As David Strom wrote under what the Right Is Saying, the typical warning systems may have just been inadequate for a storm of this nature, but those systems may also not have been operating adequately. Which brings us to the second Did NOAA cuts in any way cause or exasperate those failures? The best evidence that the Trump administration cuts are to blame for any shortcomings in the notification system came from the current and former National Weather Service employees who spoke to the New York Times. Tom Fahey, the legislative director for the National Weather Service Employees organization, said the agency was experiencing staffing shortages for forecasting and emergency management positions, which worsened after Trump took office. John Sokich, the former director of congressional affairs for nws, said those unfilled positions made coordinating with local officials during the flood more difficult. Given that Texas officials are blaming an inaccurate NWS forecast, one could easily speculate that the staffing shortages impacted the accuracy of the rainfall forecast. However, far more evidence suggests that Texas officials in Kerr county actually had what they needed to avoid this disaster. Politico published a helpful roundup of comments from people involved with the response, which included numerous current NWS officials saying they were adequately staffed and using the available technology to the best of their abilities. If there was a problem, it appears to have been with decisions made by local officials who chose long ago not to spend money on installing warning systems like sirens. As Matt Lanza, a meteorologist who has criticized the Trump administration's NOAA cuts, put it, in this particular case, we have seen absolutely nothing to suggest that current staffing or budget issues within NOAA and the NWS played any role at all in this event. Anyone using this event to claim that is being dishonest. In fact, weather balloon launches played a vital role in forecast messaging on Thursday night as the event was beginning to unfold. If you want to go that route, use this event as a symbol of the value NOAA and NWS bring to society, understanding that as horrific as this is, yes, it could have always been worse. To me, the root cause of the failure here seemed to come from alert systems. Texas officials issued dire emergency warnings about the flood and understood the risks of this storm. Those warnings did not reach some of the counselors and kids who needed to hear them, but it's not at all clear there were ever systems in place before Trump or NWS cuts that would have saved them. However, even if staffing and funding cuts were not directly responsible for this tragedy, I think these events provide a clear warning about what could happen if these systems break down. Some 600 staffers in a workforce of 4,000 had already left the weather surface by this spring. Imagine how your company would handle a 15% workforce reduction. And the organization has been warning for many months that it is closing forecasting offices at night, flying fewer weather balloons and expects degraded operations in the future. Federal cuts weren't just executed by DOGE and the Office of Management and Budget, but are being extended through legislation President Trump's just passed reconciliation bills cuts NOAA funding deeply enough that weather research labs may end up shutting down. It's reasonable to worry that cutting NOAA research and staffing could lead to more incidents where dire weather warnings don' reach the people they need to. Regardless of whether these specific systems in Texas were impacted by the cuts, accurately forecasting and communicating danger is the kind of work these researchers and meteorologists are responsible for. And trying to understand what this tragedy tells us about how cuts could directly impact the public isn't only fair, it's prudent. Of course, NOAA may have been overstaffed before Trump's cuts, and the level it's operating at currently may actually be sufficient to achieve its mission. But sadly, in our degraded discourse, a fair minded discussion about the agency's appropriate staffing levels seems unlikely. While many on the left are blaming Trump for dead young girls in Texas, the Department of Homeland Security is busy bashing the mainstream media. And I'm on X watching Jaw Agape as conspiracy theories go viral alleging the weather in Texas was being weaponized by some kind of Bill Gates run weather experimentation. It's all very dark and discouraging. With any luck, Texas and Congress have enough serious legislators willing to consider how funding cuts may impact their own constituencies going forward. One obvious takeaway is that dedicating a small fraction of budgets and at risk states or localities to implementing better warning systems like storm sirens would be a good use of taxpayer dollars. But those warning systems won't matter if we aren't investing in forecasting services. NWS employees and staff have been ringing alarm bells for months, and even if these staffing shortages weren't the root cause of this tragedy, that doesn't mean we can't take it as a wake up call for improving how all these systems work together. I for one would sleep a bit more soundly knowing these meteorologists and local officials felt they had the tools necessary to keep us safe in the future. We'll be right back after this quick break.
- [27:32]
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John Law
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- [28:09]
Isaac Saul
Sorry, do we legally have to say that?
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Isaac Saul
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- [28:37]
All right, that is it for my take. Which brings us to your questions answered. This one's from Alicia in San Mateo, California. Alicia said, how are the unemployment numbers generated? Is it just people currently on unemployment? So, great question, and actually one that's been answered pretty sufficiently by the government agency that measures unemployment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or bls. The short version is that the BLS calculates unemployment through a survey of a large pool of the population. Because unemployment insurance records relate only to people who have applied for such benefits. And since it is impractical to count every unemployed person each month, the government conducts a monthly survey called the Current Population Survey. CPS the to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The agency explains the CPS is composed of 110,000 individuals large enough that you probably know someone who has been surveyed chosen by the BLS to represent the demographic makeup and geographic distribution of the country. Roughly 60,000 households from the CPS are contacted monthly through a computerized questionnaire, and the BLS will periodically add and remove members from its survey to keep it representative and random. You can read a lot more about how BLS reaches the people at Surveys updates, its survey pool, weighs its responses and more in their complete answer, which is on their website and there's a link to it in our episode description. All right, that is it for your questions answered. I'm going to send it back to John for the rest of the pod and I'll see you guys tomorrow. Have a good one. Peace.
- [30:13]
John Law
Thanks, Isaac. Here's your under the radar story for today, folks. On Friday, the Trump administration deported eight non citizens convicted of violent crimes to South Sudan, despite none of them hailing from the country. The deportations have been the source of a protracted legal dispute. In May, a federal judge blocked an attempt to deport the men, finding that they must first have the opportunity to challenge their removals. However, the Supreme Court stayed that decision in June, then clarified on Thursday that their ruling paused the federal judge's order, meaning the deportations could no longer be blocked. South Sudan said it would offer the deportees temporary immigration status, but further details about their futures are unknown. CBS News has this story and there's a link in today's episode Description all right, next up is our numbers section. The amount of rain in inches predicted by the National Weather Service on Thursday afternoon for portions of south Central Texas was 5 to 7 inches. The amount of rain in inches that fell on parts of the region early Friday morning was 12 inches, according to the National Weather Service radar estimates. The height in feet at which the Guadalupe river in Kerr county is considered major flooding is 20ft. The height in feet that the Guadalupe river in Kerr reached on Friday at 6:45am Central Time is 36.6ft. The river's height in feet at 5:15am Central Time in Kerrville was 1.8ft. The height in feet that the Guadalupe river reached at the unincorporated community of Hunt before the gauge became completely submerged and failed was 29.5ft. The current number of vacancies at The National Weather Service's San Angelo forecasting office is 4 out of 23 positions, according to the NWS labor union. And the current number of vacancies at the NWS's San Antonio forecasting office is six out of 26 positions. And last but not least, our have a nice day story. Amid the horrors of the flooding in Kerr County, Texas, over the weekend, stories of brave rescuers are starting to circulate. One of the most impactful rescuers was Scott Ruskin, an aviation Survival Technician, 3rd class stationed in Corpus Christi, Texas. Ruskin was one of the first to respond to Camp mystic, where he said he saw about 200 campers gathered. This was the first rescue mission of his career, and he was the only triage coordinator at the scene. Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said Ruskin is credited with saving 165 people. Fox News has this story and there's a link in today's episode description all right, everybody, that is it for today's episode. As always, if you'd like to support our work, Please go to readtangle.com where you can sign up for a newsletter membership, podcast membership or a bundled membership that gets you a discount on both. We'll be right back here tomorrow. For Isaac and the rest of the crew, this is John Law signing off. Have a great day, y'. All.
- [33:22]
Isaac Saul
Peace Our executive editor and founder is me, Isaac Saul, and our executive producer is John Lowell. Today's episode was edited and engineered by Dewey Thomas. Our editorial staff is led by Managing Editor Ari Weitzman with Senior Editor Will K Back and associate editors Hunter Casperson, Audrey Moorhead Bailey, Saul Lindsey Knuth and Kendall White. Music for the podcast was produced by Diet75. To learn more about Tangle and to sign up for a membership, please visit our website@retangle.com come.
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