Podcast Summary: Tangle – Will Kaback Interviews Simon Bazelon on the “Deciding to Win” Report

Podcast: Tangle
Host: Will Kaback (Senior Editor)
Guest: Simon Bazelon (Lead Author, Deciding to Win; Politico-Data Strategist)
Date: December 31, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode centers on the aftermath of the 2024 election, with an in-depth conversation about the “Deciding to Win” report—an analysis from the centrist advocacy group Welcome. Host Will Kaback interviews lead author Simon Bazelon about the report’s findings, focusing on the state of the Democratic Party, critiques from across the political spectrum, and strategic recommendations for future electoral success. The dialogue covers why Democrats struggled in 2024, debates “mobilization” versus “moderation,” and explores the broader implications for American politics heading into the 2026 midterms and 2028 presidential race.

Background: Simon Bazelon and Welcome (04:13–06:33)

• Simon Bazelon's Path:

  • Started at Data for Progress; continued at Bluerose Research; worked for Future Forward PAC (major pro-Biden PAC in 2024).
  • Joined Welcome after 2024 to help center-left candidates flip Trump-won House districts.
  • “Deciding to Win” report released Oct 2025.

• Welcome’s Mission:

  • Help Democrats build a House majority by supporting strong candidates in districts Trump won.
  • Leverages extensive data: over 500,000 voters surveyed post-2024; analysis includes academic literature, historical results, and original polling.

Diagnosing Democratic Challenges (07:50–11:20)

Party Evolution & Elite Influence

• Shift in Platform Language:
  • Increased focus on identity issues (Black, Latino, LGBTQ, climate, guns).
  • Decline in mentions of “economy,” “jobs,” “middle class.”
• Disconnect with Voters:
  • Voters consistently want more focus on economic issues.
  • Party elites (donors, staffers, advocacy groups) drive this shift, reflecting a more professional, highly educated class.
• Class Gap:
  • Data shows non-college and swing voters prioritize crime, border security, budget, and gas prices over climate/guns/race issues.
• Bazelon:
  • “As this class of highly educated professional Democrats ... gained increasing power and themselves become increasingly liberal and less focused on economic issues, I think that’s flowed through to the party’s broader prioritization messaging.” (09:19)

Authenticity Debate

• Kaback: Suggests authenticity—a sense that candidates are real and unscripted—may be part of what attracts some voters to Trump.
• Bazelon’s Take:
  • “We need Democrats who authentically hold views that most Americans hold on public policy issues that they care about.” (11:20)

Debunking the “Myth of Mobilization” (13:15–17:51)

Mobilization Theory Critiqued

• Core Argument:

  • Moving left doesn’t win nonvoters; moderate Democrats outperform progressives in tough races.

• Examples:

  • Moderates like Jared Golden run ahead of Democratic presidential candidates.
  • Progressives like Ilhan Omar or Summer Lee run behind.

• Nonvoters Analysis:

  • Contrary to left-wing theory, nonvoters lean more “centrist” than “radical left.”
  • Higher turnout sometimes favors Republicans (if all Americans had voted in 2024, Trump would have won by more).

• Bazelon:

  • “There’s been a misconception in Democratic politics about what the kind of disaffected pool of nonvoters actually looks like…” (15:00)
  • “People...think that Democrats are pure enough or ideologically left wing enough, but that turns out to be just a really, really tiny share of the electorate…” (15:30)

Moderation, Enthusiasm & Differential Turnout

• Exciting the base also excites opponents’ base (“differential turnout” matters more).
• Moderate candidates produce better differential turnout.
• Bazelon:
  • “If you’re firing up your own base, you’re probably firing up your opponent’s base to oppose you.” (16:48)

Responding to Critiques: Moderation vs. Establishment (20:08–22:27)

“Defending the Establishment” Critique

• Bazelon’s Response:

  • Being “moderate” ≠ defending an unpopular establishment or status quo.
  • Moderation means holding views in line with average voters.
  • Authentic, “outsider” moderates (e.g., Jared Golden) outperform both establishment insiders and far-left insurgents.

• Axes of Politics:

  • Insider vs. Outsider (establishment vs. rebellion).
  • Liberal vs. Moderate (ideological spectrum).

• Bazelon:

  • “We want to be in the Dan Osborne mode, the Jared Golden mode, the Marie Gluesencamp Perez mode...they’re authentic to their communities. But also [they’re] not endorsing very, very left wing ideas. And I think that’s kind of the perfect match.” (22:08)

Candidate Recruitment & Strategic Endorsements (22:51–25:00)

• Example: Bobby Pulido (Texas 15th):
  • Non-traditional, Tejano musician, moderate, understands local economic realities (oil & gas), and border security.
  • Won’t necessarily win, but expected to far outperform national Democrats in his district.

Center-Left and Center-Right: Broadening the Democratic Tent (25:00–26:33)

• Kaback Question: Is the goal to make Democrats a natural home for center-right voters?
• Bazelon:
  • Hopes to make the party welcoming for center-right voters alienated by Trump-era GOP.
  • Only possible by shifting closer to the “center of public opinion” on issues like border security and prices.

Lessons from Trump & Party Realignment (27:22–30:39)

• Bazelon’s Analysis of Trump:

  • Trump’s appeal: Dropped GOP’s unpopular economic stances (entitlement cuts); embraced cultural fights; presented as moderate on key issues.
  • In 2016 and 2024, more voters saw Democratic nominees as too liberal than saw Trump as too conservative.
  • Trump campaigned as a moderate outsider, but governed as a radical outsider.

• Notable Quote:

  • “Trump is a story of how an extremist can take control of a party ... but the way that Trump was able to defeat Democrats ... was by being, in voters’ minds, the more moderate candidate.” (27:22)

• Kaback:

  • “Trump would probably be accurately described as being more on the moderate and that outsider [axis].” (29:22)

Can Perceptions Shift by 2028? (30:39–31:55)

• Bazelon:
  • Perceptions are changeable, but require clear evidence and communication (moderate, security-focused nominee).
  • “I think it can shift meaningfully. We see meaningful shifts and things like that all the time.”

Abortion, Party Big Tents, and the 2028 Nomination (31:55–36:07)

• Abortion:

  • Bazelon doesn’t advocate a “pro-life” Democratic stance; main need for moderation is on immigration and public safety.
  • Argues against hard litmus tests except on core economic/democratic principles.

• 2028 Democratic Field:

  • Top names (Newsom, Harris, AOC) seen as less competitive with swing voters.
  • Offers alternatives: Josh Shapiro, Andy Beshear, Ruben Gallego, Amy Klobuchar, John Ossoff, Mark Kelly, even Mark Cuban.

• Notable Quote:

  • “The person who’s currently the frontrunner in the field, Gavin Newsom...has the worst electoral track record of any of the candidates in the field in terms of his ability to win over those crossover voters...” (33:31)

Looking Forward: Senate Primaries as Bellwether (36:07–37:33)

• Primary Races as Litmus Tests:

  • Senate primaries (Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Texas) will illustrate if Democrats nominate locally viable candidates.
  • Incorrect “fit” can waste wave elections (“Sharon Angle, Christine O’Donnell, Blake Masters, Dr. Oz”).

• Bazelon:

  • “It’s definitely possible for parties to have a wave environment and yet cap their own ability to gain seats by nominating candidates who don’t quite match up with what voters in those states are looking for.” (36:53)

Closing & Further Resources (37:43)

• Follow Simon Bazelon:
  • Twitter/X: @simonbazelon
  • Read the full report: decidingtowin.org

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “We need Democrats who authentically hold views that most Americans hold on public policy issues that they care about.” – Simon Bazelon (11:20)
• “There’s a difference between somebody who is authentic in their support for very unpopular left wing ideas... and somebody who is authentically in favor of very popular policies...” – Simon Bazelon (11:20)
• “What we have are centrist swing voters and then centrist nonvoters... they’re a lot less ideological and more open to right wing and left wing ideas than hardcore partisans are.” – Simon Bazelon (15:00)
• “If you’re firing up your own base, you’re probably firing up your opponent’s base to oppose you.” – Simon Bazelon (16:48)
• “Being moderate and being part of the establishment are pretty different...” – Simon Bazelon (20:08)
• “Trump is a story of how an extremist can take control of a party ... but the way that Trump was able to defeat Democrats ... was by being, in voters’ minds, the more moderate candidate.” – Simon Bazelon (27:22)
• “The person who’s currently the frontrunner in the [Democratic] field, Gavin Newsom...has the worst electoral track record of any of the candidates in the field in terms of his ability to win over those crossover voters...” – Simon Bazelon (33:31)

Key Takeaways

• Democratic loses in 2024 reflect a growing disconnect between party elites’ priorities and those of the broader electorate.
• Moderation and authenticity, rather than ideological purity or “mobilization,” are key to flipping contested seats and building durable majorities.
• Nonvoters are generally less ideological than party activists—they are not a progressive “reserve army.”
• Trump succeeded in part by presenting a more moderate public face on economics, even while governing radically.
• Future Democratic success depends on recruiting outsider, moderate candidates who align with their districts’ values and needs.

For further insight:

• Read the “Deciding to Win” Report
• Follow Simon Bazelon on X/Twitter: @simonbazelon