TBPN Podcast Summary – November 11, 2025

Overview: Innovation, AI, and the Future of Tech and Society

This episode of TBPN, hosted by John Coogan and Tyler Hays, covers a medley of today's most dynamic tech topics: the forecast and social impact of AGI, venture and investment trends, the mechanics and controversies of new energy and terraforming startups, legendary figures stepping back, and the ethical boundaries for builders. Guests include Casey Hanmer (Terraform), Growing Daniel, JD Ross (Opendoor/Coverage), Lawrence Allen (TerraNova), and Scott Shapiro (Coinbase), among others.

Defense Tech versus AI: Where’s the Heat?

[00:34–03:26]

• Defense Tech Check-in: After visiting Neros and Anduril, hosts note defense tech is “steady, not frothy,” lacking the old controversies tied to military work.
  • “I was kind of joking with Soren, like, what’s it like working in a non-controversial industry? And you were like doing a double take.” – John [01:47]
• AI Attracts More Heat: AI is seen as more culturally and politically controversial than defense, due to issues with content, IP, and concerns about societal impact.

AGI Timelines: The 2035 “Consensus”

[03:30–15:00]

• Cultural Shift to ‘10 Years Out’:
  • Sam Altman: AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) postulates it's 3,650 days (~10 years) away: “superintelligence is just a few thousand days away.” – John [04:35]
  • Andrej Karpathy, George Hotz, and Meter Data: All peg AGI at about 2035 based on multiple forecasts, capability growth trends, and data sets.
  • Stock Market ‘Astrology’: Even a century-old “market panic” chart pegs 2035 as a panic year, reflecting cultural momentum.
• Skepticism About Consensus:
  • John wonders if “ten years out” is what people say when they really don't know or fear being wrong: “It's optimistic… you’re not going to be able to hold me to my bad take because… you can’t clip this in one year and say he was wrong.” [09:07]
  • Tyler highlights “preference falsification”—people say AGI is a decade away but act as if it isn’t imminent.
  • Behavior and Planning: Few people or companies are structurally behaving as if AGI is 10 years away—most focus on near-term goals.
  • Venture Alignment: “Ten years, exactly the time of a venture capital fund life cycle—coincidence?” – John [13:27]

Notable Segment: Vibe Coding, Childhood Tech, and Alex Wang

[16:32–20:46]

• Debate Over ‘Vibe Coding’:
  • The Alex Wang “vibe code” approach (encouraging creative experimentation for kids) is discussed. Both hosts agree there’s value in playful, exploratory coding—akin to playing with Legos or building small apps.
  • “When I was 13, I was working on little iPhone apps… if I had the vibe coding tools available today, I’d have had much more fun.” – Tyler [18:04]

Asset Management, SoftBank, Nvidia, and Financial Shenanigans

[21:22–27:00]

• SoftBank’s Accounting:
  • Questions arise over SoftBank’s methods—selling Nvidia stake, buying OpenAI shares, and using forward derivative contracts—potentially “booking gains out of thin air.”
  • Tyler: “Not the first time Masa has exited Nvidia. He exited in 2019 before the run up... sold for $3.6 billion, worth over $200B today.” [24:00]
  • Discussion echoes broader concerns about startup valuations, secondary transactions, and how VCs mark assets to market.

Warren Buffett Bows Out; Sequoia’s Shifts

[28:05–35:20]

• Buffett’s Farewell:
  • Buffett announces he’s “going quiet,” retiring as Berkshire Hathaway CEO and warning about “envy and greed.” [29:36]
  • His legacy—including limited arts philanthropy—is debated.
    • “What often bothers very wealthy CEOs… is that other CEOs are getting even richer… Envy and greed walk hand in hand.” – Buffett, as read by John [29:30]
• Sequoia's New Era:
  • Leadership moves from Roloff Botha to Alfred Lin, Pat Grady, and Andrew Reed, with questions about AI risk appetite and internal culture at the storied VC.

Terraforming, Synthetic Fuels, and Building the Future

Guest: Casey Hanmer (Terraform) [86:00–127:09]

• Update: Building solar-powered machines that create synthetic natural gas and methanol—key steps for clean energy and decoupling from geopolitical fuel risks.
• Use Cases: From powering AI data centers to global energy independence.
• Policy and Market: Not dependent on government subsidies, appealing to bipartisan interests in cheap, local fuel.
• Fun Facts:
  • “Every time there’s a new wave of technology, they go ‘oh, nevermind mate, we’ll catch the next one.’ Drives me crazy, so that’s why I’m here [in the US].” – Casey [120:46]
  • Insights into the economics and history behind why China dominates solar manufacturing, with the US’s path to regain ground.
• Geological Nerd-Off:
  • Casey gives a lively primer on the Great Unconformity at the Grand Canyon—a missing billion years in geological record.

Terraforming On Earth: TerraNova’s Solution

Guest: Lawrence Allen (TerraNova) [176:38–189:15]

• Company Launch: Out of stealth with $7M seed, building robots that inject wood chips underground to raise land level—targeting rising sea levels and flooding.
• Impact: Faster, cheaper than traditional fill or seawalls; can “lift a square mile by five feet” using local wood chip waste, addressing a huge, otherwise unsolved problem.
• Global Need: Relevant for US coastal cities and worldwide (cites interest from Indonesia and Cambodia).

AI Capex, Data Centers, and Energy Scarcity

[38:31–63:39]

• Massive AI Buildout: Discussion of AI’s voracious capital and power demands, and the economic logic (or lack thereof) for current levels of investment.
• Data Center Constraints:
  • Multiple projects in Nvidia’s hometown are sitting idle due to lack of electricity capacity.
  • Tyler: “The data center for ants.” [60:09]
• Market Dynamics: Hype, leverage, jitters in the AI data center and cloud market.

Critiques and Philosophy: Building Good Things

Guest: Growing Daniel [130:19–151:59]

• Moral Discernment Company: Championing the view that founders and investors should build things “good for people”—not just chase engagement and money.
• Meta-Critique: Criticizes A16Z’s investments in “cheating apps” and gambling-adjacent companies, advocating for self-reflection and moral evaluation by all tech builders.
• “If you’re going to dedicate your life to building something, which is what you do when you start a company, then you should reflect morally.” [134:16]
• Steelman Debate: John and Daniel riff on the nuances of gambling vs investing, and whether even the Pope can be mocked (answer: be respectful, but reflect and critique where due).

Insurance, Returns, and Honest B2B

Guest: JD Ross (Opendoor/Coverage) [152:16–163:40]

• Returns in Homebuying: Opendoor experimenting with “returns” to boost confidence and velocity in real estate.
• Founding Coverage: Insurance for new-economy businesses—“99% retention, 99% gross margins.” [153:39]
• AI in Insurance: Quietly automating back-end processes; customer experience is “just magic. They just get what they want. They don’t need to know how.” [162:49]

Coinbase Opens Retail Token Sales

Guest: Scott Shapiro (Coinbase) [167:08–174:47]

• Big News: New platform for retail investors to participate in token sales prior to exchange listing, democratizing access to crypto launches.
  • “For the first time bringing token sales to the full US retail community since 2018.” – Scott [167:55]
  • Initial project: Monad, at a $2.5 billion token valuation.
• Structure: 100% retail allocation (not split with institutions); minimum buy-in $100 in USDC.
• Comparison to IPOs: More democratized, transparent; pricing and vesting schedules disclosed upfront.

Other Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes

• On Bangers, Social Media, and Viral Posts:

  • “High quality content is high quality content. Some sentences are always funny.” – John [43:11]
  • Discussed how virality sometimes displaces meaning, and meme culture’s repeated cycles.

• On Founders’ Dilemmas:

  • “If you’re building something for ten years, and AGI actually arrives, are you wasting your time? Or is that the most leveraged time to build?” – John [14:01]

• Gene Editing & Unicorns:

  • Guest Dr. Josie Zayner is building a unicorn—literally—through DNA editing. Due to delay, this segment was brief, but highlighted the blend of sci-fi and reality in biotech startup ambition.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Defense Tech vs. AI Heat: 00:34–03:30
• AGI Timelines & Consensus: 03:30–15:00
• Vibe Coding & Youth Tech: 16:32–20:46
• SoftBank, Nvidia & Markups: 21:22–27:00
• Buffett & Sequoia: 28:05–35:20 & 81:08
• Terraform (Casey Hanmer): 86:00–127:09
• TerraNova Launch (Lawrence Allen): 176:38–189:15
• AI Capex / Data Centers: 38:31–63:39
• Moral Discernment (Growing Daniel): 130:19–151:59
• JD Ross / Coverage: 152:16–163:40
• Coinbase Token Sales (Scott Shapiro): 167:08–174:47

Tone & Style

• Conversational, occasionally irreverent, with energetic banter.
• Mixes strategic big-picture questions with first-principles geek-outs, plus a healthy skepticism about hype and narratives.
• Frequent callbacks to memes, tech Twitter drama, and the cultural zeitgeist.

Closing Reflection

This episode illustrates the layered stakes in today’s tech world: the future is being scrambled at the intersection of capital, code, atoms, and morality. The 2035 AGI consensus is both a bet and a hedge. Big capital bets may or may not pay off. Founders are called—sometimes by the Pope, sometimes by internet clique norms—to own the impact of what they’re building. Meanwhile, the creative destruction of science, insurance, crypto, energy, and real estate presses on—all under the all-seeing eye of memes and market cycles.

Notable Quotes for Sharing

• “Everyone’s saying AGI is a decade away… is that just what people say when they don’t know?” — John [09:07]
• “On an IQ level, [Roloff] is off the charts. But the heart of the matter is… he always needs to be seen as the smartest guy in the room.” [83:22]
• “If you’re going to build something, reflect morally.” — Growing Daniel [134:16]
• “You want to have the right incentives in business. Returns is a good incentive. Like, if you know it can be returned, you’re going to keep your quality bar high.” — JD Ross [155:14]
• “If I had a 5% edge over your competition, you could be number one in five years.” — Casey Hanmer [123:57]
• “For the first time bringing token sales to the full US retail community since 2018.” — Scott Shapiro [167:55]