TBPN Podcast Summary

Episode: Apple Tax is Dead, OpenAI Ends Vesting Cliff, Anthropic’s Massive TPU Order | Diet TBPN
Hosts: John Coogan & Jordi Hays
Date: December 16, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, John Coogan and Jordi Hays dive into seismic shifts across the tech industry. They start by breaking down the latest developments in the long-standing "Apple Tax" saga, celebrating Tim Sweeney's recent victory over Apple's App Store fees. The hosts then shift to talent wars and changing compensation practices in AI, specifically OpenAI's new vesting policies. Finally, they discuss Anthropic's record-setting hardware orders, the broader AI infrastructure landscape, and a handful of viral anecdotes from tech and pop culture.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The “Apple Tax” Is (Sort Of) Dead

[00:02–16:18]

• Tim Sweeney’s Victory Lap:
  The hosts recount the Ninth Circuit ruling favoring Epic Games, undermining Apple’s 30% “Apple Tax.” However, Apple’s initial response was to rebrand the fees as 27% + 3%, keeping the effective rate unchanged.

  • “It was literally 30%. It was just, like, structured slightly differently.” – John [00:32]
  • Apple can now only collect fees in line with the actual costs of their services when developers route payments externally.

• Class Action Context:
  John references the origins of class action suits against Apple (e.g., Robert Pepper’s 2011 lawsuit) and the typical outcomes where settlements pay out tiny amounts to users and massive fees to lawyers.

• Legal Precedents:
  Discussion about Illinois Brick Co. v. Illinois and Apple v. Pepper clarifies who can sue for monopoly harms. Apple’s defense hinges on being a “conduit” not a retailer, so direct transaction relationships matter.

  • “The developer agreement confirms that Apple acts as an agent… not a party to the sales contract.” [07:15]

• Economic Implications:
  The hosts analyze how Apple’s services narrative—transitioning from hardware sales to high-margin services—transformed its financials and stock valuation.

  • “Look at the price to earnings ratio… back in 2011, it was 10x… today it’s 37x.” – John [08:00]

• Tolls vs Taxes Metaphor:
  Apple’s shift from a “tax” to a “toll” is significant for developers.

  • “A toll is something you pay… linked to the service you’re getting.” – John [08:56]
  • “Developers should celebrate that. Tim Sweeney should be celebrating that.” – John [08:56]

• Concerns for Consumer Experience:
  Jordi points out the risk that external payment providers may complicate subscription management—a convenience currently enabled by Apple.

• Financial Strategies:
  Apple's CFO Luca Maestri's push (since 2015) for Wall Street to value Apple like a recurring, service-oriented business is contextualized as pivotal in driving up valuation.

• Criticism of Rent Seeking:
  Citing Ben Thompson, the hosts question whether Apple’s growth based on fees rather than innovation is a sustainable long-term strategy.

  • “It seems incredibly worrisome… when a company predicates its growth story on rent-seeking. …the pursuit is corrosive on whatever it was that made the company great…” – John quoting Ben Thompson [15:18]

2. OpenAI Ends Vesting Cliff—AI Talent Wars Escalate

[16:18–21:16]

• OpenAI Policy Change:
  OpenAI scraps the six-month equity vesting cliff for new employees, following similar moves by competitors like XAI and Meta.

  • “Interesting. So they had a problem where people would come in and say, ‘okay, I got to just do politics for the first six months…’” – John [16:32]

• The Reason for the Shift:
  This is seen as a response to aggressive hiring and retention efforts in the AI sector, where $100M compensation packages are now the norm for top-tier researchers.

  • “With AI companies... Meta, Google, Anthropic wooing top researchers with pay packages that can be worth $100 million or more… researchers and engineers have been able to hold out for the most attractive terms…” – John [17:03]

• Employer Brand Concerns:
  The hosts reference OpenAI’s previously criticized restrictive exit agreements, with equity clawbacks for employees unwilling to sign NDAs.

  • “If you didn't sign it they could claw back your equity.” – Jordi [18:29]

• Industry Implications:
  Stock-based compensation for talent is so large it can rival company revenues, highlighting the high stakes in the AI talent war.

3. Private Markets Frenzy: SpaceX, OpenAI, and Figure’s Valuations

[19:11–23:22]

• Private Funding Dynamics:
  The hosts muse about the massive amount of capital flowing into tech/AI, citing valuations:

  • SpaceX: $1.5 trillion
  • OpenAI: $40 billion (private)
  • Figure (robotics): $40 billion

• Signaling and ‘Vibe Valuations’:
  Discussion about Figure’s lavish party as a “wink wink” signifier that the company is truly generating massive revenues.

• Humor in Valuation Math:
  John and Jordi banter about ratio math in these mega-fundings:

  • “SpaceX has $30B in revenue, trading at 50x revenue, Figure at 20x…” [22:05–22:30]

4. Anthropic’s Colossal TPU Order & AI Infrastructure Aftermath

[23:47–25:36]

• Anthropic Orders $21B of TPUs:
  Anthropic’s whopping hardware orders (Ironwood TPUs from Broadcom) underscore the AI arms race.

  • “Last quarter… we received a $10 billion order to sell the latest TPU Ironwood racks to Anthropic… [now] an additional $11 billion order.” – John, quoting the Broadcom call [23:47]

• AI Market Corrections:
  Citing energy company Fermi’s IPO flop, they observe a broader correction in speculative AI markets.

• Quirky Infrastructure Ideas:
  Joking about “volcano data centers”—playing with the paradox of cooling chips in hot environments—as a symbol of the current outlandishness in AI infrastructure projects.

5. Lighter Moments & Cultural Commentary

[25:36–29:37]

• Averting a Bubbly Crash:
  Reflection on how tough questions (possibly referencing Brad Gerstner’s interview with Sam Altman) might have deflated a potential tech bubble.

  • “Maybe that was Brad's play the whole time. He’s a hero.” – Jordi [25:53]

• Jim Carrey Grinch Trivia:
  Humorous aside recounting Jim Carrey’s struggles with Grinch makeup, and how he was coached by an actual military torture trainer.

  • "He gave me a litany of things that I could do. ... Have a friend that I trust and punch him in the arm. Eat everything in sight. ... Smoke cigarettes as much as possible.” – John, quoting Carrey [27:10]

• AI Product Observations:
  Banter about ChatGPT’s unusually friendly downgrade prompts and speculation about what might actually drive long-term value—product polish vs. pure model advances.

Notable Quotes

• “These big momentous things happen and, and then the stock moves, like, not at all.” — John [00:56]
• “The reality of the app store and the business of the services narrative changed the entire financial story of Apple over the last, I guess, decade and a half.” — John [08:00]
• “The growth story of Apple has been someone else innovates, someone else creates an app and we'll take 30% and we don't need to do the innovate.” — John [15:51]
• “Changed the entire financial story of Apple… the business has grown, but the value of the earnings is so much higher… it's so much stickier.” — John [08:00]
• “OpenAI ended a policy earlier this week that required employees to work at the company for six months before their equity vested.” — Jordi [16:18]
• “What is the consumer experience going to be when trying to cancel subscriptions? …the App Store [has] the ability to one click cancel…” — Jordi [09:52]
• “I really think we're in the era of productization more than the latest model.” — John [28:46]
• “If you believe in the Ilia, we’re in the age of research… the researchers should be off doing research and the user experience designers are the heroes, basically.” — John [28:55]

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• Apple Tax Legal Discussion: 00:02–09:18
• App Store Economics & Services Pivot: 09:18–16:18
• OpenAI & AI Talent Wars: 16:18–21:16
• Figure, SpaceX, and Private Market Valuations: 21:16–23:22
• Anthropic’s Massive TPU Buy & Data Center Banter: 23:47–25:36
• Productization, AI Researchers, and Humor: 28:46–29:37

Memorable Moments

• Analogy of Apple’s app fees shifting from a tax to a toll, and how developers should cheer the move.
• Repeated jokes about costly “links” and the economics of App Store operations: “These are pricey links, John.” – Jordi [03:54]
• Lively skepticism about mega-AI valuations: “A wink wink moment. Because seriously, no CEO would throw this party if you weren’t really printing…” – Jordi [22:30]
• The “volcano data center” concept as the ultimate in tech meme innovation.
• Hilarious recounting of Jim Carrey’s anti-torture training during The Grinch shoot.
• Observations that ChatGPT is the only AI app to prompt users to downgrade, a counterintuitive retention strategy.

Tone & Style

The conversation is energetic, skeptical, and clever, balancing sarcasm with deep dives into tech economics and legal precedent. John and Jordi riff seamlessly, using metaphors and humor to make dense topics accessible, while still offering real insight for anyone following Apple, AI, or tech at large.

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