Tyler (2:32)

Even though it's not, it may never be like a rational economic activity, but in this case, I mean, if, if, you know, the implications are that you could end up in a situation where there's a duopoly in launch.

Naval Ravikant (2:44)

Yeah. I mean, SpaceX is what, multiple hundreds of billions? And you know, Blue Origin seems to have somewhat of a similar capability at some point. Like, you know, what's the fair market value of Blue Orig? Is it a billion? Is it 10 billion? Is it 50 billion? Like if it was a public company, just like, you know, and you're just comping it to SpaceX for whatever reason, you could imagine it trading in the billions for sure. Like you could imagine trading in the high tens of billions.

Tyler (3:14)

Virgin Galactic is sitting at a $200 million valuation in the public market.

Naval Ravikant (3:20)

I know that they spake. I thought that they had de spacked.

Tyler (3:23)

So it's sitting at, peaked at $1,218 a share in 2019 and it's now sitting at $3.61.

Naval Ravikant (3:33)

And I watched an interview, a walk, a walk and talk tour of the Blue Origin facility with everyday astronaut and Jeff Bezos, and it just seems like he's, he loves it, like he's just doing it for the love of the game. It doesn't matter if it's going to take 10% of his net worth.

Tyler (3:47)

Watch it, you're going to be a spaceman.

Naval Ravikant (3:49)

It's got to be way more thrilling than like sports betting, for example, because it is a gambler. Right. You put all the money into the rocket, the rocket either explodes or it goes up and comes back down. It's got to be thrilling. It's got to be a dopamine machine. So the other interesting thing is that because they don't do this like regular Tender offers that SpaceX does, there's a lot of employees on Reddit who are kind of like, hey, like my stock options are kind of worthless. Like, I don't know how to exercise these. I've been at this company for a very long time and if I was at SpaceX, I'd probably be cashing out a lot and like retiring very comfortably. But since I'm at Blue Origin, I'm not really, I don't really have the same level of liquidity. And you could imagine Bezos running a tender offer process that mirrors Space X's just by himself. He just personally takes out $1 billion of cash, which he has, and buys $1 billion of stock from the employees. Like what happens at Space x when there's $1 billion tender offer, but that comes from other investors. It could just come from him, but it doesn't feel like that's happening. Like SpaceX has this. Another unfair advantage of employees who go there and think, oh wow, I'm getting paid, you know, a couple hundred K a year, but it could be millions if we really deliver. So we got to go the extra mile.

Tyler (5:00)

Not just that, but I will have a, a consistent opportunity to get liquidity. Sounds like the people that you found that were at Blue Origin for a long time.

Naval Ravikant (5:08)

Yeah.

Tyler (5:08)

Are probably sitting there saying to themselves, if I had joined Space X in a worse role.

Naval Ravikant (5:13)

And some of them literally said that exact thing. Yeah, literally said that exact thing. But it's just interesting that that Blue Origin is like, it feels like they're somewhat fighting with one arm tied behind their back. They're also way behind on the, on the actual progress of the, of the reusable rocket. They're clearly, you know, like they don't have an answer to starship. Starship is four times the capability of this new Glenn rocket that just landed. Hot damn. Blue Origin just landed new Glenn rocket on their second flight. Officially become the second company ever to do it after SpaceX did it a decade ago. Incredible moment for the commercial space industry. The orbital economy has got to be excited about this. More competition means potentially more just cheaper prices on payloads to, to orbit. So I also saw that Project Cooper, which was Amazon's Starlink competitor, I believe is rebranding to Amazon. Leo L E O. I like that. Yeah, some people were really upset about the rebrand. I thought it was kind of cool. But they are definitely going to be getting into the space Internet. Dan golden spoke in front of us space leaders on a subject that's been weighing on him. He's bored by, by that. He's bored with low Earth orbit. SpaceX solved cheap launch and still the only the entire commercial space economy is largely one thing. Communications.

Tyler (6:32)

Look at this picture.

Naval Ravikant (6:33)

Imaginary. Wow, look at that. This is taking off. Wow, look at that. One of the reasons that Blue Origin moved a little bit slower than SpaceX is that they leaned a little bit harder on the exquisite system going really big. And Elon Musk had this idea of like, let's try and make a whole bunch of small things that we bundle together. So if you look at the number of engines in the bottom of that, I Think it has like six engines, seven engines. And if you look at the bottom of like a starship, you'll see like what, 30 engines or something?

Jordy (7:07)

I think 33.

Naval Ravikant (7:08)

33 engines. Elon has, has, has been bigger at least on, hey, let's, let's make modular pieces of equipment that can be moved around with maybe not a huge crane. Maybe you can just put it in the back of a truck. Maybe to work on this engine, you can do it in, you know, one normal room instead of a massive warehouse. And so the, the size of the individual pieces of starship, it adds up to a massive rocket. But each of the pieces can be worked on individually. When you start working on these really, really big systems, any small change, like, cascades through the rest. Where are my asteroid mines? Dan golden writes. I guess I'm the economist.

Tyler (7:47)

We're all asking the same thing, Dan.

Naval Ravikant (7:49)

Yes, yes, yes. So many Mac users wish play PC games, but they don't want expensive, complex PCs. For a fraction of the price and headache, they'll be able to play PC, PlayStation, Xbox and indie games. On the Steam Machine. They launched a controller, a box like an actual computer, the Steam Machine, and then a VR headset. Valve is saying that it's going to be cheaper than the $1,000 Valve Index, which is their previous VR headset.

Tyler (8:18)

Steam has won. There's no reason to get an Xbox. There's no reason to get an Apple VR headset. They all run on Linux. It's the ultimate computer.

Naval Ravikant (8:26)

I think that it's a unique way to actually announce something and I liked just the way they did it. Just watch this Jordy, and listen to the transitions.

Valve Representative (8:35)

Hey everyone, this is Steam Deck. Steam Deck is our powerful portable.

Naval Ravikant (8:40)

So this is the product that like it's already out and, and this has been on the market for a couple years, sold I think very well. No one really knows because Valve is such a quiet company. They're not publicly traded.

Valve Representative (8:53)

We're excited to talk about the future of Steam Deck, but not today, because this isn't a video about the future of Steam Deck. This is a video about the future of Steam hardware. Today we're announcing three new members of the Steam hardware lineup. All connect you with powerful PC gaming, all are optimized for gaming with Steam, and all are shipping in early 2026. Let's start with this one.

Naval Ravikant (9:21)

Yeah, I think it's cool how they start with something that's familiar and then they bring you into the next.

Tyler (9:27)

Well, the reason it's important is because it's a product that has shipped that people like.

Naval Ravikant (9:32)

Yeah, it's sort of like re establishing them.

Tyler (9:34)

Hardware gets like. People have so little trust in a lot of new hardware products.

Naval Ravikant (9:38)

Totally.

Valve Representative (9:39)

Oh, this is the new Steam machine.

Naval Ravikant (9:41)

I like that. It's like very like cute and quirky. It has like, I don't know, just like funny aesthetics. But they, they, that's the first time that they introduce the name of the product. The next, the next product. It has this like, sort of like friendly, quirky like esthetic that fits with the video games, but it's, it doesn't feel like it's from anywhere particular. It feels original.

Tyler (10:03)

I don't know. What do you think about the black cube?

Naval Ravikant (10:06)

The black cube? I think it's fine. I mean it's, it's, it looks like it fits in a media console where it's gonna live next to a PS5.

Valve Representative (10:15)

Oh, yep. This is Steam frame.

Naval Ravikant (10:17)

See, they do it again and then they tell you, okay, we got a new VR headset. And it's such a funny way to introduce like a new VR headset.

Valve Representative (10:24)

Next generation VR hardware. Stream all your Steam games, VR and non VR alike in this comfortable, lightweight, wireless VR headset.

Tyler (10:33)

This was posted like, you know, very early in the morning this morning. It's possible he just was playing around on.

Naval Ravikant (10:40)

Okay, no, no, no. He did not do this. Atlas Hodler wakes up every day and refers to themselves as a chronicler of Michael Saylor. Like, like that. Like they're clearly like a super fan. This was something that Atlas hoddled, generated. And then Michael Saylor took it and was like, he's like, yeah, I gotta post this today.

Tyler (10:57)

That's a great idea.

Naval Ravikant (10:58)

When the stock sound like 50% or whatever. And so the reaction has not been good because as Jez put it, brother, you are supposed to go down with the ship. Like, he's the captain of the ship. Why is he not on the ship? It's such a crazy image.

Tyler (11:12)

Michael Miraflor says, so you're abandoning a sinking ship when you're supposed to be the captain? God, I love markets. Where else do you get an objective answer to whether you're a genius or a total effing moron in real time? Master is down 50% since this was published. The Captain Sailor himself, he says, unless you do the requisite 100 plus hours of studying Bitcoin on top of 100 plus hours of MicroStrategy, you should not enter this trade. He said, because it is a very sophisticated trade that 99.99% of Wall street doesn't even understand.

Naval Ravikant (11:48)

Obviously people are dunking on this because the stock has traded down 50% since this was published. Cantor Fitzgerald, now controlled by the son of Howard Lutnick, is having its best year ever, says Joe Wiesenthal. Congratulations to Brandon Lutnick. Firm is on track to post revenue in 2025 of upwards of 2.5 billion, an all time high and a jump of more than a quarter on last year.

Tyler (12:14)

How do they do it, John?

Naval Ravikant (12:15)

I mean it feels like Cantor has been early to a bunch of like sort of risk, more risk on investments than other even pre administration. They were early to the stablecoin thing, I believe early to a bunch of crypto stuff.

Tyler (12:28)

This is our Sequoia. It has always been our Sequoia. It has always been our Arrakis, our dune. No, he says it was never done. Don's Sequoia nor Michael's, Doug's, Jim's or Roloff's. From the very beginning, when Don chose to build a partnership and name it after the longest living tree on earth, Sequoia was meant to endure not through individuals, but through us, the collective strength, integrity and vision of the partnership. I think that this is just their first like you know, really public statement as the new coast.

Naval Ravikant (13:00)

Yes, but what is changing here? Is there, are they going to be focusing more on AI companies or less on AI companies or like are they being more on growth stage or less on growth stage? Like is there a change to the strategy?

Tyler (13:11)

No, I think, I think this is just reminding people what the firm wide strategy is. This has been probably the roughest year on record for Sequoia in terms of like comms. Right.

Naval Ravikant (13:23)

I mean I guess, I guess here is the answer to that question about like what is this a response to? And Alfred says some people have asked if we will continue to make new investments and lead the investment team. The answer is an unequivocal yes. We will source and lead new investments and we will remain co leads of the early and growth teams. And so they're open for business, they're doing deals they want to actually be investing.

Tyler (13:49)

Switzerland reaches agreement with the US to cut tariff to 15% the deal would reduce an extraordinarily high tariff rate at 39% that had threatened to cripple Swiss exports. We all know what those exports are. The United States and Switzerland said on Friday that they had reached an agreement to lower a punishing 39% tariff on Swiss goods. A change that will help to reduce the cost of exporting Swiss pharmaceuticals, gold watches and chocolate to the United States. The Trump admin put a 39% tariff on Swiss exports in August, blindsiding a longtime ally and ally and delivering a sharp blow to Switzerland's economy by significantly raising the cost of the country's exports. The United States of drugs, dairy products, gold and watches. The tariff was one of the highest rates set for any country, which administration officials said was in response to a substantial trade deficit the United States had with Switzerland. There's going to be roughly two Swiss companies committed to making 200 billion in investments in the United States by 2028. The United States also agreed to cap tariffs. I didn't know Switzerland had a semiconductor industry.

Naval Ravikant (14:55)

Well, they do have some AI researchers over there who are like poached for meta. Right? What have you, have you been monitoring the, the, the GPT 5.1 launch? Like, has it been going well? It feels like it's been kind of quiet, but it's.

Jordy (15:09)

People seem to generally like it. Yeah. They didn't release benchmarks, so a lot of the, like, technical people aren't like, super.

Naval Ravikant (15:15)

Yeah.

Jordy (15:16)

Concerned.

Naval Ravikant (15:16)

I mean, I saw some charts that kind of showed that it's more that they're just pushing the model router, like, further to the edges. So it can reason for even longer if it needs to, and it can reason for even less time if it, if it just can come up with the answer more quickly. In the Flow in quotes, he says the essential question for the modern allocator, the deal guy or the venture capitalist, is do you want to be in the flow?

Tyler (15:41)

Tyler, do you think this has something to do with having motion?

Naval Ravikant (15:45)

It seems related.

Jordy (15:46)

I mean, Will is kind of like unk status. I don't know if he would.

Tyler (15:50)

Whoa.

Naval Ravikant (15:51)

Shots fired.

Tyler (15:52)

Shots fired.

Naval Ravikant (15:54)

Let me explain. Think of the Flow as the world's greatest nightclub. It's open 24 7. Many of the coolest and richest guys are there. Guys seem to get rich just by dint of hanging around. And the lights never turn on. It's a party that never ends. Inside the Flow, the only decision you have to make is to keep partying. Sure, people get hurt inside the Flow. Sometimes guys buy tables they can't afford or get addicted to habits they can't maintain. When this happens, the Flow gently returns them to pedestrian life and the party continues. No one ever seems to notice. When you're inside the flow, the only thing you notice is the guys at higher rungs, the dangling over a seemingly endless set of 10x markups and lifestyle expenses to exhaust your newly found carry. As in my experience, during Booms Most get flow curious, then pull back. Then the pullback comes and people become contrarian and look down and their noses at flow. Folks without even the self awareness to refer to their dabblings as a phase from when I was younger. And Will Manetta says, you are describing being half in, half out of the flow. This will kill you. The flow takes from those who attempt to take from it without giving their all in return. The flow only gives to those who give their all. It reads like a plot of a horror film. It's fantastic.

Tyler (17:13)

Will says friends that have done well in the flow seem to share these traits.

Naval Ravikant (17:17)

Oh, my God, this is such a long list again.

Tyler (17:19)

Now he. He had to follow it up.

Naval Ravikant (17:21)

He had to follow it up.

Tyler (17:21)

Spend 100 of net cash on rent, again, expenses. So they constantly feel pressure.

Naval Ravikant (17:26)

Okay.

Tyler (17:26)

Love that. Zegna sneakers, ABC cardigans.

Naval Ravikant (17:30)

Okay.

Tyler (17:31)

Felt very direct. Low first marriage success rates. High second marriage success.

Naval Ravikant (17:37)

Okay. Okay.

Tyler (17:38)

Lots of flights. Constant two, three, city rotation.

Naval Ravikant (17:41)

Couldn't be.

Tyler (17:42)

Spend 99% of their time talking about deals that make up less than 5% of deployed dollars.

Naval Ravikant (17:47)

Okay.

Tyler (17:47)

Constantly holding large amounts of cash.

Naval Ravikant (17:49)

Physically, a couple grand. You're. You're a notorious tipper.

Tyler (17:53)

Can't make it through an hour without taking a call. We had a workout with one of.

Naval Ravikant (17:57)

These guys this morning. We felt.

Tyler (17:58)

We felt really. We felt really bad. This. This guy. We showed up to the gym for a workout and had breakfast with him.

Naval Ravikant (18:03)

Good buddy.

Tyler (18:04)

And he. He had to. He. He had to step away for three calls.

Naval Ravikant (18:09)

He was on the grind.

Tyler (18:11)

Lunch, guys. More. More so than dinner guys. Never breakfast guys. Lacrosse or hockey in high school, not rowing. Okay, that's Tyler.

Naval Ravikant (18:18)

Wait, which one did you do?

Tyler (18:19)

Lacrosse guy I played across.

Naval Ravikant (18:20)

Oh, flow guy right here.

Tyler (18:23)

Zoom calls, not cell calls. Okay, I can see that.

Naval Ravikant (18:26)

I can't tell if. Do you want to be in the flow or outside the flow? This is interesting. It's like we're peeling back the onion. We're going a layer deeper on the deals guy archetype, which has been, you know, been workshopped by Will and Jeremy Giffon over the last few weeks. So they're having fun.

Jordy (18:43)

Are you guys more in the flow or out of the flow, do you think?

Naval Ravikant (18:45)

I don't think. I don't think we qualify for either because we are not deals guys. We are not capital allocators. I think step one, even deciding if you're in or out of the flow, is the first line of Will's original post. The essential question for the modern allocator. The deal Guy, the venture capitalist. I'm not a deals guy. I'm not an allocator. I'm not a venture capitalist. So it's an irrelevant question. Are you more of a center or power forward? It's like I'm a podcaster. That doesn't even apply. Just in the stock market is in extreme fear and the ball is being thrown at. Is that Kobe?

Tyler (19:18)

Yes, that's Kobe. John. Unfazed.

Naval Ravikant (19:20)

He's unfazed.

Tyler (19:21)

Completely unfazed. Skooks is unfazed. New options, esque platform.

Naval Ravikant (19:28)

Okay.

Tyler (19:29)

Called Euphoria has been going viral. Ben Eiford says, honestly, this is so cute and unfun. I'm not even mad. I love gambling. This is so gamified. I don't think it presents as investing or democratization of derivatives or whatever. It's entertainment. And look at this.

Naval Ravikant (19:44)

What is this?

Tyler (19:45)

Tyler, are you playing this?

Jordy (19:47)

Should I get on this?

Tyler (19:48)

The AI bubble has already popped.

Naval Ravikant (19:51)

Yes, I said this too. I said this too. Three weeks ago, the stock traded down 2%. The bubble popped.

Tyler (19:57)

The information, however, is yet to propagate evenly at 10 times revenue. To give you a 10 year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 years straight in dividends. That assumes I can get that by my shareholders. That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company. That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 39,000 employees. That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you have to pay no taxes on your dividends, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with 0R and D for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having done that, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64? You realize how ridiculous those basic assumptions are? You don't need any transparency. You don't need any footnotes. What were you thinking?

Naval Ravikant (20:41)

Badminton is live streaming in China and you can adjust whatever angle you want. This is very cool. So they film it with a whole bunch of different cameras and then you can pick the angle. Imagine being able to pick your own angle while watching TVPN live. That would be something special. Maybe we should steal this back from the Chinese. This seems like some awesome innovation. Now, Tyler, you don't think this is Gaussian splatting, right? Gaussian splatting?

Jordy (21:11)

No, I mean, it's not smooth.

Naval Ravikant (21:12)

So you think this is just a bunch of cameras?

Jordy (21:14)

It looks like a bunch of cameras, yeah, but you could do this with Gaussian splatting.

Naval Ravikant (21:17)

Yeah, I think that'll be the next iteration, the next version. But we're pretty far away from like real time on that. Right?

Tyler (21:24)

Real one knows that the shuttlecock is the fastest moving object that's been recorded in sports.

Naval Ravikant (21:30)

Really?

Tyler (21:31)

It goes hundreds of miles an hour.

Naval Ravikant (21:33)

Hundreds, yes. No way. I'll put you in the truth zone there. What about rifle shooting? Does it go faster than a gun?

Tyler (21:40)

No. A bullet is not faster than a badminton shuttlecock. No.

Naval Ravikant (21:43)

Oh, let's go.

Tyler (21:45)

A badminton shuttlecock is the fastest moving object in sports, while bullets can travel at over 2,000 miles an hour.

Naval Ravikant (21:52)

The new roadster. We talked about this in the show. Elon went on Rogan and he said maybe it'll be a flying car. And he specifically said the demo will be shocking. Like, the demo will be amazing. And so I was trying to debate with Jordy and Tyler this morning, what will the demo be like? What will it actually be? But what will the demo be? And there's been a couple different examples of this. Did we ever find the video of the jumping Chinese car? The BYD Yangwang U9, the supercar that jumps obstacles. Let's watch this. Yeah, look. Okay, so that is technically a flying car. All four wheels off the. Off the ground. I would call this the minimum viable flying car. And so I'm expecting the Tesla Roadster to be able to do something slightly above this. Right. But the question's like, how much above this? Like, will there be a rocket engine on there? Will there be fans on there?

Tyler (22:49)

I love, I love your theory. I think it'd be very cool if the fans could. Could create some amount of thrust.

Naval Ravikant (22:56)

Yeah.

Tyler (22:56)

But I find it hard to believe.

Naval Ravikant (22:59)

Yeah.

Tyler (22:59)

That it would actually be able to lift one of these cars. They're very, very, very heavy because of the battery. So. So I'm going with something closer to the ability to do something like this jump like we're seeing with this U9.

Naval Ravikant (23:12)

It's potentially possible that you could use fans to create more downforce. And fans, I believe, were actually banned from F1 because there was a moment where creating artificial downforce with fans was. And I think there are some supercars that have fans that create more downforce and suction the car to the ground so you get more traction. So that is a feature that could be there. The question is, if you reverse the fans for lift, you need a lot more rotor area and near megawatt power to hover a 2 ton sedan. Even if you could supply it, the battery would give only a few minutes before thermal or energy limits intervene. I feel like when we're talking about demo, there's a world where the demo is like, yeah, it uses half the battery and it's just a party trick, but it does lift the car off the ground for 2ft or so. Something like that.

Tyler (24:03)

2.6 says. I don't think we're getting flying cars. I personally love being stuck in traffic. There is an incentive for Elon to get people stuck in traffic. They're more likely to become best friends with Grock.

Naval Ravikant (24:13)

What if the loved ones we've lost could be part of our future?

Tyler (24:18)

This I've never actually seen a more.

Naval Ravikant (24:20)

Hated line was sort of controversial. Baby Charlie.

Valve Representative (24:24)

See?

Family Member (24:26)

Okay, that's wonderful. Kicking like crazy. He's listening. Put your hand on your tummy and hum to him. You used to love that.

Naval Ravikant (24:39)

Too wide.

Family Member (24:43)

Mom, would you tell Charlie that bedtime story you always used to tell me? Once upon a time, there was a baby unicorn who didn't know he knew how to fly. This baby unicorn was like your mom, because she didn't know that she knew how to fly, but she knew how to do all kinds of fabulous things.

Tyler (25:01)

Hi, Grandma.

Family Member (25:02)

Hey, Charlie. How was school today?

Naval Ravikant (25:04)

Pretty good. Roto there.

Tyler (25:05)

I mean, it's crazy. Shot in basketball.

Family Member (25:07)

I don't really care that much about basketball. What about the crush?

Naval Ravikant (25:11)

I like that. This. This video presumes that we'll have see through phones too. Like, maybe we should build that first. That seems like a really profitable business if you can create a see through phone.

Family Member (25:27)

You loved that.

Naval Ravikant (25:31)

You would have loved this moment.

Family Member (25:33)

You can call anytime.

Tyler (25:37)

I mean, it does feel like it's. I mean, it's shot, maybe by the people that did black.

Naval Ravikant (25:42)

It literally seems like they hired the same team.

Tyler (25:44)

They're thinking, okay, the retention on this product, you got to see. You gotta get it. You gotta get it before your loved ones pass away. You gotta be harvesting the training data. And then at any point in the future, if you churn, they delete your loved ones forever. Digital necromancy to capitalize on the grief of the vulnerable. Straight to jail. Do not pass go. Do not collect $200.

Naval Ravikant (26:07)

Do you want this? Would you ever use this? I think I'm not in the market. I don't think this is for me.

Tyler (26:15)

They delete the S3 bucket if you don't make the payment. Super dark. I think this is one of those things that would actually have quite a lot of demand.

Naval Ravikant (26:24)

Mm.

Tyler (26:25)

Because a lot of people are just gonna process this and say, I'm really fearful of my loved ones passing. You also find it hard to believe how many people are best chat.

Naval Ravikant (26:35)

Yeah, I do. I do find it hard to believe.

Tyler (26:37)

And there are millions of them.

Valve Representative (26:38)

Them.

Tyler (26:39)

And it's tough because I. I mean, you think I miss my grandparents potentially. I want my. I wish that my grandparents were around to spend more time.

Naval Ravikant (26:46)

Yeah.

Tyler (26:46)

With my kids. Their stories they've told me. There's songs they've sang.

Naval Ravikant (26:53)

Yeah.

Tyler (26:53)

There's all these incredible moments that I will never relive. And I wish I could experience those moments.

Naval Ravikant (27:01)

Yeah.

Tyler (27:01)

That being said, am I going to be a customer of this? No.

Naval Ravikant (27:04)

Do you think OpenAI would launch a competitor to this?

Tyler (27:07)

I don't know if they want another PR crisis.

Naval Ravikant (27:09)

Thank you so much for tuning in. Have a great weekend.

Tyler (27:12)

Have a fantastic weekend.

Naval Ravikant (27:13)

Goodbye.

Tyler (27:14)

We love.