TBPN - Diet TBPN: November 4, 2025
Hosts: John Coogan (A) & Jordi Hays (B)
Date: November 5, 2025
Episode Overview
In this fast-paced installment of TBPN, John and Jordi break down a day of major stories from the tech and finance spaces, discussing shakeups at Sequoia Capital, the explosive growth and future projections of AI titans like Anthropic and Nvidia, wry takes on the restaurant and consumer market bubble, and musings on AI’s impact on art and labor. There’s a characteristic blend of sharp market insight, irreverent humor, and back-and-forth speculation, all delivered with the duo’s trademark Silicon Valley candor.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Sequoia Capital Leadership Changes
[00:00 - 00:23]
- The episode opens with commentary on new leadership at Sequoia Capital.
- “New top dogs. Top dog alert. A new generation of Sequoia stewards.” (A & B)
- Speculation about veteran Roloff’s next moves, humorously linked to car racing.
- Memorable quote:
- B: “I found my real calling, bro. Went out and said venture capital is return free risk and then handed over the keys.” [00:23]
2. Anthropic & AI Profitability
[00:31 - 01:15]
- Anthropic, now a leading AI API seller, has upped future revenue forecasts by 13-28%.
- Projected to hit $70B revenue by 2028, $17B in cash flow, and profitability by 2027—unusual among AI companies (besides Nvidia).
- Contrast with OpenAI: OpenAI’s path is to burn $115B and aim for 2030 profitability, whereas Anthropic’s efficiency is notable.
- Quote:
- “Not something you see from AI players outside of Nvidia.” (B, [00:54])
3. Nvidia: Meteoric Rise & Sentiment
[01:15 - 02:19]
- Nvidia’s market cap jumps from $100B in 2019 to $5T in 2025.
- Viral moment: Jensen Huang signs a woman’s shirt at a conference; discussed as a classic ‘top signal’ in stock hysteria culture.
- Hosts discuss historic market tops and public persona.
- Quote:
- “Jensen has always been a rock star… He was born in it.” (A, [02:14])
4. Bubbles & Betting Gone Wrong
[02:19 - 02:42]
- B jokes about being “financially ruined” shorting Korean fried chicken stocks, listing contrarian logic that led to big losses.
- Quote:
- B: “This week I lost $472,000 short selling Korean fried chicken companies. My idea was… an opportunity here. Everything is gone.” [02:19-02:42]
- Quote:
5. AI, Layoffs, and Macroeconomics
[02:42 - 04:21]
- Ongoing debate about ChatGPT's real-world job displacement; so far, human roles persist, especially in creative and editorial jobs.
- The drop in tech company hiring is mostly ascribed to macroeconomic factors (interest rates), not AI directly.
- CEOs may use AI efficiency as a layoff narrative regardless of true impact.
- Quote:
- B: “Every CEO, even if they don’t have an AI narrative, wants an AI narrative. So if you have to do layoffs, why not say, hey, we’re getting a bunch of efficiency out of AI tools and that’s why we’re doing layoffs.” [04:09]
- Quote:
6. Burry’s Big Short (Again) & Palantir Results
[04:21 - 05:23]
- Michael Burry makes headlines by filing his 13F report early, revealing big shorts on Palantir and Nvidia.
- Palantir revenue is up significantly, though the stock falls, highlighting market volatility.
- Palantir now recruits straight from high school, skipping college credentials for new hires.
7. US-China AI ‘Race’: Diffusion & Consumption
[05:23 - 06:41]
- A Financial Times article explores US vs China in AI:
- China’s edge may be in societal-wide tech adoption, not just frontier model creation.
- US pressure has led to more open and efficient models in China—potentially a global advantage.
- Discussion of real implementation versus hype.
- Quote:
- B: “The article notes the public in China is the most optimistic in the world about AI.” [06:25]
8. The China Market for Nvidia
[06:41 - 06:51]
- A ponders the real bottom-line effect if Nvidia could sell unimpeded into China.
9. Political Betting—NYC Races
[06:51 - 07:08]
- NYC’s political prospects: Mamdani leads over Cuomo; banter on “smart money” vs “degenerate money” following the odds.
10. Restaurant & Retail Stocks: Bubble Deflating
[07:08 - 08:23]
- Discussion of restaurant stock valuations, recent deflation, and the limits of the previous bubble.
- Critique of Chipotle's declining quality and its failed bid to win younger customers.
- Memorable Anecdotes:
- B: “Anytime you were on a long drive, knowing you could... have a nice fresh, nutritious slop bowl, it was something to look forward to.” [07:50]
- “Quality has degraded to such an extreme degree... I’d rather fast than eat Chipotle in almost any situation.” [07:59]
- Memorable Anecdotes:
11. Tech Innovations & AI in Defense
[08:23 - 09:29]
- Milestone: First autonomous fighter jet flight in US history.
- Growth in US solar production, reversing narratives of decline.
- Martin Shkreli’s outrageous Nvidia forecast: $100T market cap.
- Discussion of AI’s reach—higher priced professions may not be immune to displacement.
12. SpaceX, NASA, and Cost Overruns
[09:29 - 09:56]
- Comparison of SpaceX Starship cost ($2.7B including a docking adapter) to NASA’s Orion ($31.6B and counting)—satirical take on bureaucracy.
13. AI Notetakers & Education
[09:56 - 10:31]
- Debate over the saturated AI notetaker app market and the tools students really use to ‘cheat’ or optimize homework.
14. Venture Capital Highlights
[10:31 - 10:56]
- Vintage Benchmark fund up 8x, suggestion to “10x that fund again.”
- Brutus (fruit company) raises $150M, giving the “berry powerhouse” unicorn status.
- Quote:
- A: “Sometimes the simple idea is obscenely large blueberries.” [11:14]
- Quote:
15. AI and the Arts: Will.i.am & AI-Generated Music
[11:14 - 12:16]
- Will.i.am teaching a course on agentic AI at ASU, reflecting on how creators adopt technology.
- AI-generated music reaches the Billboard charts, with enigmatic creators potentially staying anonymous like a “Satoshi of music.”
16. Stablecoins Ecosystem
[12:16 - 13:06]
- Musings on the ever-increasing fragmentation of stablecoins versus potential consolidation.
- Current stablecoin market caps: Tether at $183B, USCC $75B, USDE $9B, etc.
17. Artist Resistance to GenAI: UI/UX Dimensions
[13:06 - 14:02]
- Suggestion that artists’ backlash is partly about GenAI's text-based UIs, as opposed to more “artistic” GUIs (like Nvidia Canvas).
- Aesthetics and workflow are as much a factor as the underlying technology in artist acceptance.
18. SaaS and Legal AI Bets
[14:02 - 14:42]
- Service Titan’s market cap comparison to Harvey.ai, a legal SaaS startup—taken as a broader sign of faith in radical AI-driven labor displacement.
- Emphasis on the enormous scale of global legal services and the high expectations for transformation.
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On Sequoia:
“Venture capital is return free risk and then handed over the keys. The timing is, is interesting.” (B, [00:23]) -
On Anthropic and AI Profitability:
“Not something you see from AI players outside of Nvidia.” (B, [00:54]) -
On Nvidia:
“Jensen has always been a rock star. It’s not like he put on the jacket as at the top. He was born in it.” (A, [02:14]) -
Satirical Financial Confessions:
“This week I lost $472,000 short selling Korean fried Chicken companies… Everything is gone.” (B, [02:19-02:42]) -
Layoff Narratives:
“Every CEO… wants an AI narrative. So if you have to do layoffs, why not say… that's why we’re doing layoffs.” (B, [04:09]) -
On the Art World & AI UIs:
“If Midjourney, ChatGPT, Dall, et cetera had interfaces along the lines of Nvidia canvas… it would look enough like existing tools that the critique would look purist and elite.” (A, [13:06]) -
On Simple Ideas:
“Sometimes the simple idea is obscenely large blueberries.” (A, [11:14])
Important Segment Timestamps
- Sequoia & VC Leadership: 00:00 – 00:23
- Anthropic Financials & AI Profitability: 00:31 – 01:15
- Nvidia Top Signal & Cultural Moment: 01:15 – 02:19
- Korean Fried Chicken Short (Satire): 02:19 – 02:42
- AI Layoffs & Macroeconomics: 02:42 – 04:21
- Burry & Palantir: 04:21 – 05:23
- US-China & AI Diffusion: 05:23 – 06:41
- Restaurant Stocks/Chipotle: 07:08 – 08:23
- Tech Innovation & Defense AI: 08:34 – 09:29
- SpaceX vs. NASA Satire: 09:29 – 09:56
- AI Notetakers & Students: 09:56 – 10:31
- Benchmark Venture News: 10:31 – 10:56
- Will.i.am, AI, and the Arts: 11:14 – 12:16
- Stablecoins Fragmentation: 12:16 – 13:06
- AI Tools & Artist Pushback: 13:06 – 14:02
- SaaS, Harvey.ai, Legal Market: 14:02 – 14:42
Tone & Takeaway
The show maintains its signature blend of playful snark, sharp analysis, and real-time tech culture pulse-taking. John and Jordi bounce from big picture market shifts to satirical self-owns and hot takes on food (and blueberries) to earnest speculation on where AI will hit next. Their style is energetic, skeptical, and constantly searching for “the next thing”—perfect for anyone wanting a digest of Silicon Valley’s conversational ebb and flow alongside real substance.