Diet TBPN: November 4, 2025

Summary

TBPN - Diet TBPN: November 4, 2025

Hosts: John Coogan (A) & Jordi Hays (B)
Date: November 5, 2025

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Episode Overview

In this fast-paced installment of TBPN, John and Jordi break down a day of major stories from the tech and finance spaces, discussing shakeups at Sequoia Capital, the explosive growth and future projections of AI titans like Anthropic and Nvidia, wry takes on the restaurant and consumer market bubble, and musings on AI’s impact on art and labor. There’s a characteristic blend of sharp market insight, irreverent humor, and back-and-forth speculation, all delivered with the duo’s trademark Silicon Valley candor.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Sequoia Capital Leadership Changes

[00:00 - 00:23]

• The episode opens with commentary on new leadership at Sequoia Capital.
  • “New top dogs. Top dog alert. A new generation of Sequoia stewards.” (A & B)
• Speculation about veteran Roloff’s next moves, humorously linked to car racing.
• Memorable quote:
  • B: “I found my real calling, bro. Went out and said venture capital is return free risk and then handed over the keys.” [00:23]

2. Anthropic & AI Profitability

[00:31 - 01:15]

• Anthropic, now a leading AI API seller, has upped future revenue forecasts by 13-28%.
• Projected to hit $70B revenue by 2028, $17B in cash flow, and profitability by 2027—unusual among AI companies (besides Nvidia).
• Contrast with OpenAI: OpenAI’s path is to burn $115B and aim for 2030 profitability, whereas Anthropic’s efficiency is notable.
• Quote:
  • “Not something you see from AI players outside of Nvidia.” (B, [00:54])

3. Nvidia: Meteoric Rise & Sentiment

[01:15 - 02:19]

• Nvidia’s market cap jumps from $100B in 2019 to $5T in 2025.
• Viral moment: Jensen Huang signs a woman’s shirt at a conference; discussed as a classic ‘top signal’ in stock hysteria culture.
• Hosts discuss historic market tops and public persona.
• Quote:
  • “Jensen has always been a rock star… He was born in it.” (A, [02:14])

4. Bubbles & Betting Gone Wrong

[02:19 - 02:42]

• B jokes about being “financially ruined” shorting Korean fried chicken stocks, listing contrarian logic that led to big losses.
  • Quote:
    • B: “This week I lost $472,000 short selling Korean fried chicken companies. My idea was… an opportunity here. Everything is gone.” [02:19-02:42]

5. AI, Layoffs, and Macroeconomics

[02:42 - 04:21]

• Ongoing debate about ChatGPT's real-world job displacement; so far, human roles persist, especially in creative and editorial jobs.
• The drop in tech company hiring is mostly ascribed to macroeconomic factors (interest rates), not AI directly.
• CEOs may use AI efficiency as a layoff narrative regardless of true impact.
  • Quote:
    • B: “Every CEO, even if they don’t have an AI narrative, wants an AI narrative. So if you have to do layoffs, why not say, hey, we’re getting a bunch of efficiency out of AI tools and that’s why we’re doing layoffs.” [04:09]

6. Burry’s Big Short (Again) & Palantir Results

[04:21 - 05:23]

• Michael Burry makes headlines by filing his 13F report early, revealing big shorts on Palantir and Nvidia.
• Palantir revenue is up significantly, though the stock falls, highlighting market volatility.
• Palantir now recruits straight from high school, skipping college credentials for new hires.

7. US-China AI ‘Race’: Diffusion & Consumption

[05:23 - 06:41]

• A Financial Times article explores US vs China in AI:
  • China’s edge may be in societal-wide tech adoption, not just frontier model creation.
  • US pressure has led to more open and efficient models in China—potentially a global advantage.
  • Discussion of real implementation versus hype.
• Quote:
  • B: “The article notes the public in China is the most optimistic in the world about AI.” [06:25]

8. The China Market for Nvidia

[06:41 - 06:51]

• A ponders the real bottom-line effect if Nvidia could sell unimpeded into China.

9. Political Betting—NYC Races

[06:51 - 07:08]

• NYC’s political prospects: Mamdani leads over Cuomo; banter on “smart money” vs “degenerate money” following the odds.

10. Restaurant & Retail Stocks: Bubble Deflating

[07:08 - 08:23]

• Discussion of restaurant stock valuations, recent deflation, and the limits of the previous bubble.
• Critique of Chipotle's declining quality and its failed bid to win younger customers.
  • Memorable Anecdotes:
    • B: “Anytime you were on a long drive, knowing you could... have a nice fresh, nutritious slop bowl, it was something to look forward to.” [07:50]
    • “Quality has degraded to such an extreme degree... I’d rather fast than eat Chipotle in almost any situation.” [07:59]

11. Tech Innovations & AI in Defense

[08:23 - 09:29]

• Milestone: First autonomous fighter jet flight in US history.
• Growth in US solar production, reversing narratives of decline.
• Martin Shkreli’s outrageous Nvidia forecast: $100T market cap.
• Discussion of AI’s reach—higher priced professions may not be immune to displacement.

12. SpaceX, NASA, and Cost Overruns

[09:29 - 09:56]

• Comparison of SpaceX Starship cost ($2.7B including a docking adapter) to NASA’s Orion ($31.6B and counting)—satirical take on bureaucracy.

13. AI Notetakers & Education

[09:56 - 10:31]

• Debate over the saturated AI notetaker app market and the tools students really use to ‘cheat’ or optimize homework.

14. Venture Capital Highlights

[10:31 - 10:56]

• Vintage Benchmark fund up 8x, suggestion to “10x that fund again.”
• Brutus (fruit company) raises $150M, giving the “berry powerhouse” unicorn status.
  • Quote:
    • A: “Sometimes the simple idea is obscenely large blueberries.” [11:14]

15. AI and the Arts: Will.i.am & AI-Generated Music

[11:14 - 12:16]

• Will.i.am teaching a course on agentic AI at ASU, reflecting on how creators adopt technology.
• AI-generated music reaches the Billboard charts, with enigmatic creators potentially staying anonymous like a “Satoshi of music.”

16. Stablecoins Ecosystem

[12:16 - 13:06]

• Musings on the ever-increasing fragmentation of stablecoins versus potential consolidation.
• Current stablecoin market caps: Tether at $183B, USCC $75B, USDE $9B, etc.

17. Artist Resistance to GenAI: UI/UX Dimensions

[13:06 - 14:02]

• Suggestion that artists’ backlash is partly about GenAI's text-based UIs, as opposed to more “artistic” GUIs (like Nvidia Canvas).
• Aesthetics and workflow are as much a factor as the underlying technology in artist acceptance.

18. SaaS and Legal AI Bets

[14:02 - 14:42]

• Service Titan’s market cap comparison to Harvey.ai, a legal SaaS startup—taken as a broader sign of faith in radical AI-driven labor displacement.
• Emphasis on the enormous scale of global legal services and the high expectations for transformation.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Sequoia:
  “Venture capital is return free risk and then handed over the keys. The timing is, is interesting.” (B, [00:23])

• On Anthropic and AI Profitability:
  “Not something you see from AI players outside of Nvidia.” (B, [00:54])

• On Nvidia:
  “Jensen has always been a rock star. It’s not like he put on the jacket as at the top. He was born in it.” (A, [02:14])

• Satirical Financial Confessions:
  “This week I lost $472,000 short selling Korean fried Chicken companies… Everything is gone.” (B, [02:19-02:42])

• Layoff Narratives:
  “Every CEO… wants an AI narrative. So if you have to do layoffs, why not say… that's why we’re doing layoffs.” (B, [04:09])

• On the Art World & AI UIs:
  “If Midjourney, ChatGPT, Dall, et cetera had interfaces along the lines of Nvidia canvas… it would look enough like existing tools that the critique would look purist and elite.” (A, [13:06])

• On Simple Ideas:
  “Sometimes the simple idea is obscenely large blueberries.” (A, [11:14])

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Important Segment Timestamps

• Sequoia & VC Leadership: 00:00 – 00:23
• Anthropic Financials & AI Profitability: 00:31 – 01:15
• Nvidia Top Signal & Cultural Moment: 01:15 – 02:19
• Korean Fried Chicken Short (Satire): 02:19 – 02:42
• AI Layoffs & Macroeconomics: 02:42 – 04:21
• Burry & Palantir: 04:21 – 05:23
• US-China & AI Diffusion: 05:23 – 06:41
• Restaurant Stocks/Chipotle: 07:08 – 08:23
• Tech Innovation & Defense AI: 08:34 – 09:29
• SpaceX vs. NASA Satire: 09:29 – 09:56
• AI Notetakers & Students: 09:56 – 10:31
• Benchmark Venture News: 10:31 – 10:56
• Will.i.am, AI, and the Arts: 11:14 – 12:16
• Stablecoins Fragmentation: 12:16 – 13:06
• AI Tools & Artist Pushback: 13:06 – 14:02
• SaaS, Harvey.ai, Legal Market: 14:02 – 14:42

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Tone & Takeaway

The show maintains its signature blend of playful snark, sharp analysis, and real-time tech culture pulse-taking. John and Jordi bounce from big picture market shifts to satirical self-owns and hot takes on food (and blueberries) to earnest speculation on where AI will hit next. Their style is energetic, skeptical, and constantly searching for “the next thing”—perfect for anyone wanting a digest of Silicon Valley’s conversational ebb and flow alongside real substance.

Transcript

[A]

We are live from Silicon Valley and we're hanging out with some absolute dogs. We have some breaking news out of Sequoia Capital. They have a new set of bosses. New top dogs.

[B]

Top dog alert. A new generation of Sequoia stewards.

[A]

I think Rohloff probably just recently got into racing cars and he's just like, I need to go full time.

[B]

I need to go all in.

[A]

I got it. I gotta.

[B]

I found my real calling, bro. Went out and said venture capital is return free risk and then handed over the keys. The timing is, is interesting.

[A]

Anthropic is the new king of AI API sales. Boatload of new financials and projections below. Anthropic this summer hiked its most optimistic growth forecast by roughly 13 to 28% over the next three years and is projecting as much as 70 billion in revenue in 2028.

[B]

Yeah, the notable thing here is they're projecting cash flow.

[A]

Yeah, profitable in 2027.

[B]

17 billion in cash flow in 2028. Not something you see from AI players outside of Nvidia.

[A]

Remember the whole Dario idea of like each model individually is cash flow positive, but you keep having to scale up.

[B]

By 10x to actually be cash flow positive at the company level. I have to imagine they would have to not do the next training.

[A]

OpenAI's plan spend 115 billion to then become profitable in 2030. Anthropic's plan is spent 6 billion to then become profitable in 20 at 27. We'll be curious to see what works best in 2019. People saying Nvidia stock is extremely overvalued. This was pre the Ethereum pump, I believe. And Nvidia's market cap was $100 billion. It was at 100 billion, then at 500 billion in 2021. And then in 2025 we now see that the market cap is 5 trillion.

[B]

And this pretty surreal to see this image surface. I'm surprised Jensen did this and allowed himself to be photographed doing it. But this was June 4, 2024. He was signing a woman's shirt at a conference and Nvidia is up 85%. Historically, historically these, these have been, yeah, it's crazy top signals, but here we are.

[A]

Jensen has always been a rock star. It's not like he put on the jacket as at the top. He was born in it.

[B]

Korean fried chicken stocks were pumping. I am financially ruined short selling Korean fried chicken companies. I have lost everything and I'm not sure how to continue. This week I lost $472,000 short selling Korean fried Chicken companies. My idea was with the declining Korean population and the recent trend towards healthier eating and vegan diets, there is an opportunity here. Everything is gone.

[A]

There's some debate over how impactful the ChatGPT launch was, has been on job displacement. We keep going back and forth on this. I mean, they certainly want it to get there, but that's not how people use it just yet. Like for the most part it is like.

[B]

Well, I think the notable, I think, I think something notable about like when I think of the ChatGPT, like jobs displacement debate and discourse. Like I look at our company, which is like despite a bunch of new tools popping up, we still need to hire video editors, we still want to hire writers. There's like a bunch of these different roles that this chart to me has always been about interest rates going through the roof. That's what it just happened to almost perfectly coincide with the ChatGPT launch. If you look at the growth of the S&P 500, almost all the growth is driven by AI.

[A]

If only there were some major event a year before that was important and affected interest rates and hiring trends. And so there's like the cultural trends around what Elon did at X that just kind of like woke a lot of CEOs up to this idea that they could run leaner. The interest rates is huge if AI isn't displacing. But if CEOs think that AI is going to displace people or AI will be in five years, well, a lot of the reason why you hire someone isn't because you need, you need the job done today.

[B]

It's because like I think that every CEO, even if they don't have an AI narrative, wants an AI narrative. So if you have to do layoffs, why not say, hey, we're getting a bunch of efficiency out of AI tools and that's why we're doing layoffs.

[A]

Michael Burry has just filed his 13F 11 days early. He has never done this before. Massive put. He's going short Palantir and Nvidia.

[B]

I think in general people continuously misunderstand the sort of like notional value versus the size of the actual portfolio.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, let Burry cook.

[B]

I wonder if Burry wish he played himself in the big short so that all the meme. If he knew all the meme images would be shared hundreds, thousands of times a day. That's more. On Palantir earnings Q3, they did 1.18 billion of revenue up 63% year over year. 883 million of US revenue up 77% year over year. 397 US commercial revenue up 121% year over year. Beating like this, beating like this and Then trading down 8% the next day is shows that the market's a little shaky.

[A]

The Denver based firm sells software to centralize, manage and analyze large amounts of data. They're hiring high schoolers now. They're just like college is pointless, we'll just hire you straight out of high school.

[B]

This is rare enough to be highlighted an actually good Financial Times article on the state of the AI race between the US and China. He put race in quotes. One the fact that for a general purpose technology such as AI long term advantage often comes down to how widely and deeply technology spread across society and and China has advantages here, as the article notes, since they're unarguably better at orchestrating society wide transformation as that's all they've been doing for the past three decades. They got some reps in the data.

[A]

Point that I have not seen that I would like to see is actual consumption of AI. Like it's clear that they were able to catch up on creation of Frontier model with Deep seq, but how, how much is actually getting implemented?

[B]

This is extremely ironic as the US effectively pushed China to develop models that are more efficient and open source, which turns out to be a better strategy for global diffusion. If you're a company in say Germany or Brazil, you can download quant or Deep Seek, run it locally, fine tune it for your market, and never worry about API rate limits.

[A]

But does that mean that you win?

[B]

The article notes the public in China is the most optimistic in the world about AI.

[A]

Nvidia is a $5 trillion company. If they could sell to China, how much? Like it's not like it's a $10 trillion company, is it? Is it that big of a deal? Like how big is the China opportunity?

[B]

It's the second largest computing market in the world. I don't know. Depends on how AGI pilled you are. John Tesla was selling into China as long as, well as long as it took for them to copy it.

[A]

New York City is choosing between Mamdani and Cuomo. And Mamdani is at 95% chance. Cuomo's at up from around 90. You know there's a lot of people out there saying smart money's on Cuomo, maybe he'll win.

[B]

I think the degenerate money is on Cuomo.

[A]

That's probably true.

[B]

Monthly performance from Canva, Wingstop Shake Shack, a bunch of other restaurants. Most of these restaurant stocks were trading at 35 to 100 times forward PE just recently. Many still are. This is just a bubble deflating. Bubbles can't be sustained indefinitely.

[A]

Chipotle's big bet on younger consumers is unraveling. Uncertain US economy is catching up to younger Americans. Chain has spent years cultivating a younger clientele. Pitching its burritos and bowls as nutritious, protein packed meals for gym bros and healthy eaters. What do you think, Ben?

[B]

I used to get easily 90% of my calories from Chipotle at certain times in my life. And anytime you were like on a long drive.

[A]

Yes.

[B]

Knowing that at some point in the drive you could pull over and have a nice fresh, nutritious slop bowl. It was something to look forward to.

[A]

Oh, it was amazing.

[B]

Quality has degraded to such an extreme degree that it's no, I'd rather fast than eat Chipotle in almost any situation. It's over $10. I sort of look back fondly on the days when Chipotle was felt and was a luxury. When I was like, okay, getting extra meat and guacamole.

[A]

Extra, extra guac and extra meat was like I am a king.

[B]

Were you, were you like a frozen chicken breast guy too?

[A]

Yeah, for sure. I'd just be looking Costco.

[B]

I'd be looking at the 1 pound bag of rice and the frozen chicken breast being like, again, we meet again.

[A]

We meet again.

[B]

Revenue is growing because they're, they're opening new stores but at existing stores you.

[A]

See they got to go upmarket. Caviar bowls. Wagyu A5 wagyu bowl with double beluga on top. History was just made. Lux Family company and Oral technology has just successfully flown the first ever fully autonomous fighter jet ever in US history.

[B]

It is a crazy looking jet.

[A]

The mainstream narrative is that this was created by humans. Where are all these companies coming from? We're so back. Casey Hanmer has been saying, like, we're not making solar in America effectively. And here's this company that's just cooking, setting out 14 megawatts of solar panels in a single day. Martin Shkreli is forecasting that Nvidia will get to 100 trillion in market cap. Even desk email jobs require human thought. But higher priced jobs like legal, medical finance can also be replaced by AI.

[B]

This is a nightmare post for Nvidia. Bears.

[A]

Can'T make this stuff up. SpaceX Starship 2.7 billion HLS contract cost includes docking adapter, NASA, Lockheed Orion 31.6 billion cost and counting 19 in 19 years in development. Docking is an extra 2.5 billion extra.

[B]

The doc's going to be an extra two and a half. We're sorry.

[A]

All this to be an AI notetaker app number eight. 7. Blah blah, blah blah blah.

[B]

The question here is, is there a market for an AI note taker? For the kind of people that Cluly is really good at marketing to, I don't think it's possible for them to make a 10x better product than otter and granola.

[A]

What are college students actually using? Like what? Like from what we've heard, the stack if you want to like cheat on your homework. What is the stack, jordy? It's actually ChatGPT Atlas Benchmark 2020 Vintage Fund marked at an 8x. Tyler Hodge has the story. They're doing just fine.

[B]

I think what Ev Randall should do new GP over at Benchmark.

[A]

What should you do?

[B]

Is 10x that fun again?

[A]

Do you need venture capital? Call Ev Randall at Benchmark 1-800-1-800.

[B]

Fruitus raises 150 million to power the next wave of healthy snake snacking.

[A]

This is crazy.

[B]

Brutus has closed 150 million dollar funding round Huge Blue led by JP Morgan Asset Management with Ray Dalio doubling.

[A]

We gotta try some of these.

[B]

Valuing the berry powerhouse at over 1 billion, the snacking company best known for its jumbo blueberries and new grab and go snack cups generated more than 400 million in revenue last year with blueberry sales. They gotta get an AI narrative here. This take a simple idea and take it seriously and sometimes the simple idea is obscenely large blueberries.

[A]

Will I am is in the news because he will be teaching a new class on a gentic AI at Arizona State University. Hearing how Will I am is using AI would be interesting. I am endlessly entertained by there's somebody who has a craft like you might not like his music, you might love his music but clearly you know that he makes music like he has a process. He makes it.

[B]

Will I am was an early investor in Tesla Pre Elon Open AI Anthropic Twitter, Pinterest, Dropbox Hugging face Beats and Runway AI generated song has entered a Billboard radio chart for the first time. Zinnia Monet created by Human Talisha Jones who used Suno Suno also signed a $3 million record deal a few weeks ago. Imagine 3 million up and then all of a sudden you got the $3 million record deal. I would like to see an AI musician not share their real identity and Satoshi of music Music not A pop.

[A]

Star, but a slop star. If you want to log off. If you want to touch some grass, head over to wander. Find your happy place. Book a wander with inspiring views, hotel, great amenities, dreamy beds, top tier cleaning, 24. 7 concierge services, vacation but better like.

[B]

Most of you guys, I didn't get into crypto to get rich. I got into crypto because I believed in the vision of 500 different stable coins issued by 500 different centralized institutions. Institutions on 500 different blockchains.

[A]

I do wonder what the stable result is like. What? What is the final equilibrium? Is it just endless proliferation of new coins? Or is it a consolidation because you.

[B]

Have tether at 183 billion, USCC at 75 billion. The next largest is USDE at 9 billion. Below that is DAI and then below that, below that is World Liberty Financial.

[A]

I have this partially formed hypothesis that artist backlash against generative AI crystallized largely in response to text driven user interfaces. The art world has come to accept tools like Photoshop and earlier photography itself that still shares the aesthetic of traditional art creation. If Midjourney, ChatGPT, Dall, et cetera had interfaces along the lines of Nvidia canvas from 20 pictured below. I remember this tool. It was awesome. You could do that. You could draw whatever, whatever like outline you wanted and it would just automatically generate it and looked great. Palmer says it would look enough like existing tools that the critique would look purist and elite. Art via command line on the other hand looks sufficiently other that you can easily berate the users as not artists.

[B]

Service Titan at $9 billion market cap on 866 million of revenue. Comparing that to Harvey, which is $8 billion valuation on somewhere around 100 million of ARR. At this point you have to believe that we're moving from a world of niche vertical SaaS to the next industrial revolution. You would not be able to underwrite Harvey like this against like the existing legal AI market. This is a bet on labor displacement. Apparently the 200 largest law firms in the world provide 130 billion of legal services. So that's the top 200. So Harvey's already sitting at basically there. We will be tomorrow back in the.

[A]

Ultra in Los Angeles. We'll see.

[B]

Can't wait then.

[A]

Goodbye.