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You're watching TVPN.
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Today is Monday, October 20, 2025. We are live from the TVPN Ultradome, the Temple of technology, the fortress of finance, the capital of capital. Later in the show, we also have the CEO of GameStop, Ryan Cohen, joining the show at noon. So if you're new here and you're tuning in for the first time, please stay with us there. Also, do you think the AWS outage is it entirely because of us? And the GameStop shorts want us to stop podcasting so so that we can't bring them the latest in the world of GameStop?
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I think it was potentially Amazon, just turning it off for a second just to show everyone that hey, cloud's still pretty important. Forgotten about us.
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That makes sense.
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You're still dependent on us.
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Andre Karpathy made waves this week on the Dwarkesh Patel podcast. He said a lot of he called AI slop. He also said that the models are amazing. He said that autocomplete is his sweet spot. He had a bunch of positive things to say, but overall people did not react positively. Everyone says the AI bubble is over, it's popped. You gotta rotate out of AI stocks. My take is that if you're looking for something safe, you gotta rotate into food, water, shelter and guns. All of industrialization is a bubble. We're going back to monkey, we're returning to monkey. We're going to be living in huts because technology is a bubble, technology is fake, and all we have left is to homestead and live in a shelter. So get ready to go back to sticks and stones. That's my take.
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Good take.
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Andre Karpathy was a co founding member of OpenAI. He was there from day one. He also was at Tesla and built the self driving car program there. He is one of the most respected AI practitioners, researchers basically saying that AGI is like 10 years away. Not one year, not two years. He's kind of debunking the idea or at least he's just sharing like the vibes that he doesn't feel like the AI 2027 fast takeoff scenario is probable. Over a year ago, September 23rd, 2024, Sam Altman posted a blog post said the intel called the Intelligence age. And this is what he said in there. He said it is possible that we will have super intelligence in a few thousand days. He's still setting expectations to be like, AGI is a decade away. Which is exactly what Andre said. But when Sam said it, everyone was like, let's go super long. And when Andre says, oh it's bad. Which is kind of an interesting tweak. Whenever you talk to a technolog and you say like okay, you're working on getting us to Mars. You're working on fusion reactors, you're working on quantum computing. When will this actually change my life? When will this technology be ready for primetime? Everyone says it's just a decade away. It's going to be so long that everyone will have forgotten in a decade.
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Some people listened to the Carpathy interview and thought, Great, I have 10 years to escape the permanent undercut.
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Yeah, totally.
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Which is exactly how OpenAI is also acting.
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Right.
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They're acting like a big tech company. They're launching a social media app, they're working on ads.
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Yes.
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Commerce. They're trying to scale paid users. Right. They're just acting like a traditional hyperscale. The fact that 10 years AGI is.
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Like a bearish take is crazy. That's so bullish. That's extremely bullish.
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Did you see a lot of pushback from anyone at the big labs on the interview?
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No, I didn't see anything.
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I expected to see more people saying Carpathy's been out of the game for a few years. He doesn't have the scale. He's not really at the frontier. He's not seeing what we're seeing and I didn't see any of that.
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Whatever you are thinking of doing in the public markets, go to public.com investing for those that take it seriously. They got multi asset investing, industry leading yields. They're trusted by millions. Oracle's now on the hook for something like $300 billion in infrastructure over the next five years. That's a lot very quickly. They're hoping that OpenAI revenue will pay for that.
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It is very notable that OpenAI has announced partnerships with Etsy and Walmart and not Amazon and ebay. Amazon's management team. EBay's management team aren't so quick to let Sam the Fox into the hen house.
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Things can get out of control where like the iPhone got so dominant that Google had to pay Apple to be the default search. It's not the right framing to say like we've never seen anything like this. It's breaking all of our patterns. So we're just completely operating off playbook. I think it's much better to just say that like this is a new hyperscaler. We all saw what happened with Google and Amazon. They were started before the dot com bubble popped and they scaled very fast. OpenAI is scaling faster on users and revenue and so we are investing more, but it's all proportionate and so it's the exact same playbook.
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OpenAI Growth ChatGPT Growth is seemingly slowing a little bit, and that makes sense just based entirely on the scale that they're at right now. There's a reason that OpenAI wants its own browser. Perplexity wants its own browser. I don't think they've properly even leveraged Chrome yet in order to drive Gemini usage.
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Yeah, yeah.
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Browser wars of the summer 2025 I.
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Want to pre register the following opinion. I think it's plausible but by no means guaranteed that we could see a massive financial crisis or bubble pop affecting AI in the next year. I expect if this happens it will mostly be for mundane economic reasons over leveraged markets, financial policy of major nations, mistiming of bets even by a small amount of and good old fraud. Not because the technology isn't making rapid progress. We gotta go even harder. The bear market's bullish for doom Underrated AI Doom scenario. The bubble pops so hard that everyone goes bankrupt. There's mass famine and starvation and humanity population collapses all because we went too leverage long AI. What do you think about that? Plausible. It just might be how it feels listening to this podcast. It's balloon popping. We will see about the reason it.
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Is so important for everyone to keep pretending that AGI is definitely right around the corner is that there is now over 1 trillion of investment riding on this belief either already expended or committed.
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We should move to the Napoleon jewels that were stolen from the Louvre. In a major robbery, the thieves stole jewelry from display cases in Galerie de Paulon.
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Finally fleeing Brazen heist.
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We are anti heist. We are anti crime. Do not do this. If you have information that could lead to the arrest of these thieves, let us know. We will send you a hat. Is this the cure for male loneliness?
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Tourists were streaming into the world's most visited museum on Sunday when a group of thieves burst in through window of a gilded gallery on the second floor and made off with a set of priceless royal jewels. Two of the perpetrators, at least one wearing a high visibility yellow vest that.
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Looks blend in so much it just looks like work.
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Brown angle grinders to cut through the window and get inside died tempted but.
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Failed to set fire to their truck. So they were trying to burn the truck on the way out to like get rid of all the fingerprints I suppose. And they dropped the crown of Empress Eugene with nearly 1400 diamonds before they sped away. It was found damaged. No one was injured. Eight pieces in total were stolen, including an emerald earring and an emerald necklace that belonged to Empress Marie.
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Such a brutal fumble fumbling diamonds.
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Massive fumble.
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Yeah. Obviously they're never going to be able to capture the same value necessarily as if you were able to do an open auction. There's a small pool of buyers.
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Yeah.
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There's probably 100 people in the world that would be willing to pay tens of millions and potentially more just. Just to know that they had it and just to be a family secret.
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Do you think there are any buyers that would flex it? What if you're Vladimir Putin? What if you're Kim Jong Un?
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Elon says, my estimate on the probability of Grok 5 achieving AGI is now at 10% and rising. Gabe says 10% chance. Elon declares he reached AGI a fourth time.
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Elon says a lot of crazy stuff about like, I hope that we'll be able to do novel physics. I think the next version is going to be really powerful. This and that. But I don't know that he's ever actually called a version of GROK AGI. But anyway, clearly it clearly upset Elon because he replied and said, you call yourself a quote unquote researcher, hitting somebody with the double quotes. We know with the pain that that be hitting flicks, it's terrible. You never want to be hit with the double quotes.
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Jensen Huang was at a Citadel event, future of global markets and said, we are 100% out of China. We went from 95% market share to 0%. I can't imagine any policymaker thinking that's a good idea. 100% out of China, but doing astonishingly healthy business in Singapore and Malaysia. Totally out of the blue swinging around accusations that that Singapore and Malaysia are fronts for Chinese chip demand.
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We also love ramp.com, time is money save both easy use, corporate cards, bill pay accounting and a whole lot more all in one place. Why the China doves are wrong. American business leaders cozying up to Beijing refuse to see that the Communist Party wants us to fail. That while some Americans wear the label China Hawk as a badge of honor, it is really a badge of shame. The future, Mr. Wong says, doesn't have to be all us or them. It could be us and them. A lot of this is all teeing up a major trade deal. The rare earth equation is is certainly a big one. America has a bunch of levers to pull. If they were truly like the next scaling run is what does it, they would be like, oh, let's take the Nvidia chips as well instead they're saying, okay, well let's, let's actually gear up for independence over a long period of time. JP Morgan says Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's projection of AI capex growing from 600 billion today to 3 to 4 trillion by 202030 is financially feasible, though ambitious. Even with a projected 1.6 trillion annual funding gap, private markets could contribute about 500 billion per year by 2030, leaving the rest to be covered by leverage expansion.
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Yeah, and the key question is, you know, if you want AI CapEx to scale to 3 to 4 trillion, you're going to need revenue to support that.
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Jordy, have you received any inbound from random people who seem to have GPT psychosis?
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Hard to say. Humans no longer necessary, so we're getting rid of them. Replacement AI can do anything a human can do, but better, faster and much, much cheaper. Quote from Sam Altman. AI will probably most likely lead to the end of the world, but in the meantime, there'll be great companies. It's a wild quote here from Dario. I think there's a 25% chance that things go really, really badly.
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The Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol says the coffee giant is all in on AI reveals real time artificial intelligence systems, designed baristas and transform store operations.
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We got to put on the schizo hat, okay?
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Please.
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Starbucks Stock is up 6.66%. Coincidence.
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Very weird.
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Are they. Are they using AI to summon the demon?
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Uber is going to give its drivers in the US an option to make money by doing digital tasks. These short minute long tasks can be done anytime, including while idling for passengers.
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I hope they put some type of restriction in where if they detect that you're in a mo like actually moving that. They say you cann do data labeling right now because somebody in traffic Just data labeling. Tyler, you're pretty AGI pilled, right? Yeah. Okay, well why don't you earn $100 doing data labeling? That's your challenge for the next 24 hours. Was weird being in Vegas recently. So quiet, so many fewer people gambling, drinking, partying. My pet theory, Ozempic killing Vegas just like it's killing snack food brands, liquor producers and Napa. Yes, that would go the opposite angle. With the rise of Robinhood prediction markets and sports betting, there is little reason to go to veg Vegas. It is more expensive, the house edge is higher and it's hotter outside. Less drinking contributes too though. Isn't Vegas just like a. Isn't it like a recession indicator? Right? Like the real economy is not doing well. Right Now I saw another quote that just said, like the nightlife scene there has been hyper financialized to a degree that it's just not even fun anymore.
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People aren't gambling for one reason or another. Maybe it's the Ozempic. You need to make Vegas high end.
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Yeah, what if they set up a bunker in there that has a bunch of stolen goods from all over the world? Premier says over the last 15 years, Reddit's relationship advice has shifted towards recommending breakups, boundaries and therapies and against compromised communication and letting people have their space. This is concerning for a number of reasons. One being that your favorite AI models are all trained on Reddit. If you're having relationships problems, whether friend or romantic, and you start a podcast together, that sounds like, okay, so here.
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Are the options from Reddit. End relationship Communicate. Give space, slash time. Set respect, boundaries. Seek therapy, counseling, compromise Other how about getting the octagon?
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Duke it out.
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Duke it out. If you're having a relationship problem with someone, buy them a luxury watch on getbezel.com because your bezel concierge is available now to source you any watch on the planet. Seriously, any watch.
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If you're like, oh, the Senate Republicans posted a video of Chuck Schumer.
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Chuck Schumer thinks playing with Americans. Every day gets better for us.
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Chuck Schumer.
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When come women, infants Every day gets better for us.
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Okay, okay. The mouth movement is a little.
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Chuck Schumer thinks every day gets dialed. Every day gets better. I mean, like, it's clearly based on some real image that they took. And so the lighting looks very real, the skin texture looks really real because the AI model doesn't really have to do that much to regenerate it from scratch. But of course, we've seen that, you know, all the models are basically, you know, indistinguishable if you don't have full context at this point. Thank you so much. Leave us 5 stars on Apple Podcasts Spotify tomorrow. See you tomorrow.