Diet TBPN: October 31, 2025

Summary

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TBPN: Diet TBPN – October 31, 2025

Hosts: John Coogan, Jordi Hays
Date: November 1, 2025

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Episode Overview

This Halloween episode of TBPN dives into the latest tech earnings—covering the Mag 7 companies—and unpacks their impact on global markets. The hosts, dressed in tech icon costumes, blend insightful analysis with signature banter, tackling Amazon’s comeback, Meta’s bottom-line drama, the AI race between giants, and colorful side-notes including hard-boiled egg office etiquette and holiday costumes. Earning calls, tech strategies, fraud, and market moods all get the Diet TBPN treatment.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

Halloween Vibes and Tech Costumes

• The hosts set a festive tone discussing their costumes:
  • Jordi as Mark Andreessen, John as Ilya Sutskever, guest Tyler as Sam Altman at the 2008 WWDC.
    • [00:17] Jordi: “You got to be living under a data center to not know who I'm dressed up as today? None other than Mark Andreessen.”
    • [00:46] Tyler: “Sam Altman at 2008 WWDC.”
  • Chat audience actively involved in the fun.
    • [00:30] John: “If you are watching the recording...put it on 3x speed to get the full Mark experience.”

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Mag 7 Earnings & Market Reactions

Amazon’s Comeback

• Impressive Q3 profits: net profits up 39%, revenue up, AWS revenue up.
  • [00:49] John: “They beat on the top line, they beat on the bottom line. They also beat on AWS revenue.”
• Amazon regains place in the AI narrative, previously on the defensive.

Alphabet & Amazon: Comparing Five-Year Runs

• Alphabet up 247% over five years; Amazon up only 62% post-earnings jump.
  • [01:50] Jordi: “Look at the lag Alphabet...up 247% over the last five years. Amazon...up 62% even after the pop.”

Microsoft: AI Credibility and Stock Volatility

• Outperformed on both revenue and earnings.
  • Stock initially down 3-4% after hours, rebounded later.
  • [02:21] Jordi: “Satya, in my view, has already gotten a lot more credit for the company’s opportunities in AI than Amazon and even Google.”
  • Microsoft integrating AI into Excel with Copilot; “model-agnostic,” leveraging OpenAI IP.

Meta: Massive Profit Miss, Spending Scrutiny

• Beat on top-line, but had a massive $10-$12 billion miss due to a one-time tax charge (linked to the “Big Beautiful Bill Act”).
  • [03:29] John: “Miss massive miss like a $12 billion. People are not talking enough about what happened.”
  • [03:47] Tyler: “Apparently it was a one-time tax charge related to the Big Beautiful Bill Act.”
  • Skepticism about Zuck’s metaverse/VR spending vs. Bezos’s AWS investments.
  • Reels is now a $50 billion revenue run rate.

Tesla: AI, Autonomous Drive, and SpaceX Synergy

• Beat on revenue, missed on earnings; stock down 4% after hours.
  • [04:23] John: “If Elon goes straight shot to the full self driving equivalent for humanoid robots...Tesla’s robofleet is a year or two behind Waymo’s...The Tesla bull hope is that...you come from behind and start compounding because you have just structurally better costs.”
  • Commentary on SpaceX—domination of space industry vs. brutal auto market competition.
  • Elon’s ambitions for data centers in orbit.

Apple: Strength, Caution, and China Declines

• Beat on both top and bottom lines, but China sales down YoY.
  • [05:13] Jordi: "Apple...China business is slowly going away.”
  • [05:31] John: “Apple's trading at 40 times PE with very low growth. This feels steep.”
  • Not worried about AI threats for Apple in near term.

Nvidia: AI King on Top, Are There Stormclouds?

• Ongoing, unmatched expansion as "core AI factory," but hype around data centers in space/humanoids/quantum computing is questioned.
  • [06:47] John: “Maybe the same old AI story.”
  • [06:58] John: “He (Jensen Huang) is the most value creative founder CEO in human history. No one’s created 5 trillion in any capacity.”
  • Skepticism about ongoing data center/training spending and debt.

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Broader AI & Cloud Industry Insights

• Enterprise AI traction strong, but revenue per customer relatively low.
  • [07:33] Jordi: “AI is not a bubble enterprise...Nearly 150 enterprises each process 1 trillion tokens with Gemini models...That is 0.3% of GCP annual revenue.”
• OpenAI’s losses (over $11 billion reported last quarter) largely framed as CapEx investments.
  • [09:08] John: “These are not losses. These are investments...I would assume that a lot of OpenAI's losses are actually investments in CapEx.”
  • [09:40] Tyler: “First half of 2025, they were going to do 3.5 in losses. So this is basically double that.”
• API token processing: OpenAI’s API is around 250 trillion tokens a month.
  • [08:02] Tyler: “OpenAI is doing like...around like 250 trillion a month. If it's a trillion over the past, like, year...that's still pretty bad.”

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Notable News & Moments

Coinbase’s Earnings Call Easter Egg

• CEO Brian Armstrong reads off buzzwords to satisfy a prediction market.
  • [08:12] Jordi: “On the Coinbase earnings call yesterday, Brian Armstrong...just read through and read off every single word that he had missed.”
  • Gamification and memeing of earning calls noted as growing trend.

Palantir Lawsuit

• Palantir sues ex-employees for creating rival AI firm Percepta using stolen secrets—backed by General Catalyst.
  • [09:45] Jordi: “Palantir sues former employees for stealing company secrets...called Percepta, backed by General Catalyst.”
  • [10:01] John: “I would not want to steal from Palantir...That seems like one of the worst companies to steal from.”
  • [10:07] Jordi: “They will find you and they will kill you.” (jokingly referencing Palantir’s reputation)

BlackRock & Wild Loans

• BlackRock hit by fraud on telecom loans; broad fraud signals “good times.”
  • [10:20] Jordi: “Large scale fraud is actually a sign of good times.”
  • [10:21] John: “I mean, that's true.”

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Memorable Quotes & Banter

• [03:38] Jordi (on Meta’s spend): “This is like, you know, I'm sure Meta and the executive team, it's like after a weekend bender checking like your credit card statement.”
• [06:58] John (on Jensen Huang): “He is the most value creative founder CEO in human history. No one's created 5 trillion in any capacity.”
• [10:45] Jordi: “Hard boiled eggs are really an insane snack.”
• [10:48] John: “It's not more protein than a steak in a bag. You gotta go Chesky mode. Throw a steak in the bag and take it with you everywhere.”
• [11:07] Jordi: “Am I gonna go home and trick or treat with the kids like this? No, I do not want to traumatize my young children.”

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Halloween costumes and intro: 00:00 – 00:47
• Mag 7 earnings rapid fire: 00:49 – 06:58
• Enterprise AI and OpenAI’s finances: 07:23 – 09:08
• Coinbase prediction market moment: 08:12 – 08:57
• Palantir lawsuit coverage: 09:45 – 10:07
• Fraud, trucks, and snack banter: 10:20 – 10:48
• Closing (trick-or-treating as tech titans): 11:07 – 11:18

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Conclusion

This Halloween episode delivers a rapid-fire, humor-laced yet sharp analysis of the tech market’s current state. The hosts break down the Mag 7’s earnings, poke fun at industry trends, muse about the future of AI and robotics, and riff on the more absurd corners of corporate life. Whether it’s billion-dollar misses, AI token counts, or the relative merits of steak vs. eggs, the TBPN team brings both clarity and comic relief for any tech enthusiast.

Transcript

[A]

Mag 7 Earnings recapping what's happening in the public markets. The trillion dollar tech companies that have been powering and holding up the entire global economy, will they continue to hold up the global economy? So far the answer is yes. I'm glad the chat is enjoying the costumes. Jordi. Who are you today?

[B]

You got to be living under a data center to not know who I'm dressed up as today? None other than Mark Andreessen.

[A]

Spitting image.

[B]

Spitting, spitting image. How. How am I doing?

[A]

I think you look great. Of course I am. Ilya Siskever.

[B]

If you are watching the recording of this at some point in the future, I recommend whenever I'm talking, put it on 3x speed.

[A]

Yes.

[B]

To get the full mark experience.

[A]

If you're not taking Halloween this seriously, what's going on, you got to be taking it seriously. Tyler, are you taking Halloween seriously?

[C]

I'm taking Halloween extremely seriously.

[A]

Well, who are you?

[C]

Sam Altman at 2008 WWDC.

[A]

Trump cut China tariffs after he met up with Xi Jinping. The US agreed to lower a fentanyl related tariff on Chinese goods to 10% from 20% after China promised to crack down on chemicals used to make the often dead precursors. Precursors. Beijing also promised to ease some of the controls it imposed on exports of processed rare earth minerals. For one year. China dominates the production of the minerals which are needed to make everything from smartphones to submarines. Wow. This. The bigger news in tech world of course is earnings. Amazon posted a big jump in profit and revenue. Net profits surged 39% and revenue rose for the third quarter. The last earnings, they were sort of left out of the AI narrative. All the other hyperscalers in their cloud businesses telling great stories about acceleration and growth. And Andy Jassy was a little bit on the defensive, while now he's back on the offensive. They beat on the top line, they beat on the bottom line. They also beat on AWS revenue.

[B]

You know, proud member of the lag 7. Look at the lag Alphabet. I mean not the lag 7, but they were the lagging part of the mag 7. It's a. It's a pleasure to introduce you to a new meme Alphabet. Up 247% over the last five years. Amazon is still only up 62% even after the pop.

[A]

Wow.

[B]

Yeah. This week so said the only thing better than Halloween is Halloween AI edition. In case you missed it tagged Ilya and Mark and of course no AI here. We did, we did this one.

[A]

The old fashioned Microsoft.

[B]

Microsoft. What's your Microsoft Top Line beat earnings beat Stock traded down 3 to 4% after hours. It's recovered quite a bit since then. Satya, in my view, has already gotten a lot more credit for the company's opportunities in AI than Amazon and even Google. People have known about Google's strengths, but the big questions around search have held back performance to date. There are so many companies that are trying to build Excel plus an agent on top of it.

[A]

Sure.

[B]

Which is exactly what Microsoft is also doing with Excel with Copilot. Right. And their model agnostic. They're going to be able to bring in any, any kind of intelligence that they want. And so it's also fascinating because they have access to OpenAI's IP.

[A]

Slack was very much the same thing where Slack was this product that was so much better than the alternatives. Like if you, I don't know if you ever used like workplace chat pre Slack, but it was.

[B]

I was basically born on Slack.

[A]

I was born on Slack. Okay.

[B]

I never knew John was so ripped. There's been some other comments.

[A]

Ilya baby, let's go. Ilya AGI has been achieved. Let's go.

[B]

Let's talk about meta.

[A]

Yes.

[B]

Top line beat earnings.

[A]

Miss massive miss like a $12 billion. People are not talking enough about what happened. It is crazy that you could be operating such a big company and just be like oops, $10 billion.

[B]

I mean think of how they've been spending. This is like, you know, I'm sure Meta and the executive team, it's like after a weekend bender checking like your credit card statement.

[C]

Okay, so apparently it was a one time tax charge related to the Big Beautiful Bill Act.

[A]

What? So is that why the Stock traded down 10%? Is it specifically because of this one time tax charge?

[B]

Like I think it could be a little bit of vibes in the middle. The timeline loves the core meta business but doesn't have a lot of faith in Zuck. People thought Bezos, who had a similar, similar level of control over Amazon was crazy to spend like he did building aws. And he was ultimately completely vindicated. People thought Mark was crazy going all in on the Metaverse and VR. So far that part of the business like has not shown any signs of being ROI positive. Right. Reels is now a $50 billion revenue run rate.

[A]

Let's go Tesla beat earnings missed. Beat on revenue, missed on earnings. Stock reaction was down about 4% after hours. If Elon goes straight shot to the full self driving equivalent for humanoid robots, basically no teleoperation, the project should be behind what's going on with 1x I would imagine just like the Waymo Dynamic, Tesla's going full moonshot, full send. No one debates the fact that like Tesla's robo taxi fleet is a year or two behind Waymo's right now. Now the Tesla bull hope is that you come from behind and start compounding because you have just structurally better costs, way more manufacturing, more of a flywheel on the actual data and the training Elon Musk on data centers in orbit. SpaceX will be doing this. He's going to do data centers in space.

[B]

It's easy to be bullish on space right now, but if you're investing in different categories, you have to imagine that if there are adjacent opportunities Besides Starlink for SpaceX to do, they will enter them if they are large enough categories. And it's also just fascinating to look at the space industry versus the automotive industry. Like the automotive industry is the most brutally competitive, challenging business where Elon is having to compete with every car manufacturer in the world. In space it's like, you know, you can imagine that being not a perfect monopoly, it's certainly having every possible advantage in order to dominate in that category when the time is right. Apple beat top line beat on bottom line. China sales decline year over year. If you've been paying any attention to Apple, you know that their China business is slowly going away. IPhone revenue they missed just just by $300 million 50 billion. John, your take you said sort of the inverse meta core business not at risk due to AI but not investing aggressively. Consumers seem happy to just open an LLM app. Could take I said Apple's trading at 40 times PE with very low growth. This feels steep. Even if I don't think they're threatened by AI in the near term we should close it out with Nvidia just to finish this little earnings wrap up. John, your take was on top of the world but is that head is the head that wears the crown. Heavy core AI factory build out going flawlessly but unclear why Nvidia is pushing data centers in space humanoids, quantum computing, mumbo jumbo.

[A]

Maybe it's real.

[B]

Maybe the same old AI story. Question. Yeah, I said I don't think Jensen would be just chugging beers on camera in Korea if he was having a rough one.

[A]

So he is the most value creative founder CEO in human history. No one's created 5 trillion in any capacity.

[B]

I'm sorry but no company generating the cash meta is with the margins it has should ever be raising money. Of course. They announced another bond sale yesterday morning. Don't pay every AI scientist like their Shohei Ohtani.

[A]

Yeah. When I hear that they're setting up a big data center and they're raising debt for that particular deal, I don't have, like, red flags flying off in my mind.

[B]

AI is not a bubble enterprise. AI is very strong. Nearly 150 enterprises each process 1 trillion tokens with Gemini models for a wide range of apps. And then they say, wait, that's less than a million bucks per year per Enterprise, or 150 million of annual revenue. That is 0.3% of GCP annual revenue.

[A]

What percentage of GCP annual revenue is AI is GenII. Sometimes the hyperscalers don't know. Tyler, what you got?

[C]

A trillion is just like not a lot at all.

[A]

It's just not a lot.

[C]

Opening is doing like, on. Just on the API, like something around like 250 trillion a month. If it's a trillion over the past, like, year, even if it's 150, I mean, that's like, that's pretty bad.

[B]

This was crazy. I wasn't sure if this was fake news or not, but on the Coinbase earnings call yesterday, Brian Armstrong. Yeah. When there was a prediction market that people were betting on which words he would say during the. During the earnings call, and he waited until the end and he just read through and read off every single word that he had missed. As I was tracking the prediction market about what Coinbase will say on their next earnings call. And I just want to, you know, add here the words Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain staking and web3.3. We've had prediction markets created around different interviews done. And when Sam Altman, while he was mentioning Distracting. When I'm looking at the chat and people are like, say this word. Yeah, say that word again.

[A]

It's crazy.

[B]

Say it three more times here. Microsoft seemingly just revealed that OpenAI lost 11 and a half billion last quarter. Who's losing more money than Open AI?

[A]

These are not losses. These are investments. So like, if. So, like if I raise $10 million for my startup and then I'm like, okay, I'm going to buy an office building for $5 million. That's not negative 5 million earnings. That is negative 5 million cash flow. I've lost 5 million cash and I don't have liquid cash anymore. And so I would assume that a lot of OpenAI's losses are actually investments in CapEx, one way or another, the.

[C]

First half of 2025, they were going to do 3.5 in losses. So this is Basically double that.

[B]

Palantir sues former employees for stealing company secrets. Company alleges pair violated non competes to create copycat AI firm.

[A]

Interesting.

[B]

The two employees, they're accusing them of stealing confidential data to build a rival company called Percepta, backed by General Catalyst.

[A]

I would not want to steal from Palantir.

[B]

Bad idea.

[A]

That seems like one of the worst companies to steal from.

[B]

They will find you and they will kill you. BlackRock stung by loans to businesses accused breathtaking fraud. An entrepreneur tap private credit funds to finance his telecom businesses. AV in the chat Large scale fraud is actually a sign of good times.

[A]

I mean, that's true.

[B]

Please, Mr. President, respectfully, let us buy this truck.

[A]

Let's go.

[B]

Yeah, I don't know why. I don't know if these, these trucks are blocked. Either blocked in the US or just. You would have to import one yourself. I think this one from Toyota Internationally sells for like 10 to 20 grand. Like it's very cheap.

[A]

If I ran a company, my first act would be to ban hard boiled eggs in the office.

[B]

Hard boiled eggs are really an insane snack.

[A]

Is it more. It's not more protein than a steak in a bag. You gotta go Chesky mode. Throw a steak in the bag and take it with you everywhere. Like I wouldn't have a problem with somebody going. And if there's like a cigarette smoking area, like a back alley and you can go into the back alley and scarf. Scarf hard boiled eggs. That seems reasonable.

[B]

Am I gonna go home and trick or treat with the kids like this? No, I do not want to traumatize my young children. Yeah, I will be dressing up as something else. But we will see you back here on Monday.

[A]

We'll talk to you soon.

[B]

Can't wait.