TBPN: Diet TBPN – October 31, 2025

Hosts: John Coogan, Jordi Hays
Date: November 1, 2025

Episode Overview

This Halloween episode of TBPN dives into the latest tech earnings—covering the Mag 7 companies—and unpacks their impact on global markets. The hosts, dressed in tech icon costumes, blend insightful analysis with signature banter, tackling Amazon’s comeback, Meta’s bottom-line drama, the AI race between giants, and colorful side-notes including hard-boiled egg office etiquette and holiday costumes. Earning calls, tech strategies, fraud, and market moods all get the Diet TBPN treatment.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Halloween Vibes and Tech Costumes

• The hosts set a festive tone discussing their costumes:
  • Jordi as Mark Andreessen, John as Ilya Sutskever, guest Tyler as Sam Altman at the 2008 WWDC.
    • [00:17] Jordi: “You got to be living under a data center to not know who I'm dressed up as today? None other than Mark Andreessen.”
    • [00:46] Tyler: “Sam Altman at 2008 WWDC.”
  • Chat audience actively involved in the fun.
    • [00:30] John: “If you are watching the recording...put it on 3x speed to get the full Mark experience.”

Mag 7 Earnings & Market Reactions

Amazon’s Comeback

• Impressive Q3 profits: net profits up 39%, revenue up, AWS revenue up.
  • [00:49] John: “They beat on the top line, they beat on the bottom line. They also beat on AWS revenue.”
• Amazon regains place in the AI narrative, previously on the defensive.

Alphabet & Amazon: Comparing Five-Year Runs

• Alphabet up 247% over five years; Amazon up only 62% post-earnings jump.
  • [01:50] Jordi: “Look at the lag Alphabet...up 247% over the last five years. Amazon...up 62% even after the pop.”

Microsoft: AI Credibility and Stock Volatility

• Outperformed on both revenue and earnings.
  • Stock initially down 3-4% after hours, rebounded later.
  • [02:21] Jordi: “Satya, in my view, has already gotten a lot more credit for the company’s opportunities in AI than Amazon and even Google.”
  • Microsoft integrating AI into Excel with Copilot; “model-agnostic,” leveraging OpenAI IP.

Meta: Massive Profit Miss, Spending Scrutiny

• Beat on top-line, but had a massive $10-$12 billion miss due to a one-time tax charge (linked to the “Big Beautiful Bill Act”).
  • [03:29] John: “Miss massive miss like a $12 billion. People are not talking enough about what happened.”
  • [03:47] Tyler: “Apparently it was a one-time tax charge related to the Big Beautiful Bill Act.”
  • Skepticism about Zuck’s metaverse/VR spending vs. Bezos’s AWS investments.
  • Reels is now a $50 billion revenue run rate.

Tesla: AI, Autonomous Drive, and SpaceX Synergy

• Beat on revenue, missed on earnings; stock down 4% after hours.
  • [04:23] John: “If Elon goes straight shot to the full self driving equivalent for humanoid robots...Tesla’s robofleet is a year or two behind Waymo’s...The Tesla bull hope is that...you come from behind and start compounding because you have just structurally better costs.”
  • Commentary on SpaceX—domination of space industry vs. brutal auto market competition.
  • Elon’s ambitions for data centers in orbit.

Apple: Strength, Caution, and China Declines

• Beat on both top and bottom lines, but China sales down YoY.
  • [05:13] Jordi: "Apple...China business is slowly going away.”
  • [05:31] John: “Apple's trading at 40 times PE with very low growth. This feels steep.”
  • Not worried about AI threats for Apple in near term.

Nvidia: AI King on Top, Are There Stormclouds?

• Ongoing, unmatched expansion as "core AI factory," but hype around data centers in space/humanoids/quantum computing is questioned.
  • [06:47] John: “Maybe the same old AI story.”
  • [06:58] John: “He (Jensen Huang) is the most value creative founder CEO in human history. No one’s created 5 trillion in any capacity.”
  • Skepticism about ongoing data center/training spending and debt.

Broader AI & Cloud Industry Insights

• Enterprise AI traction strong, but revenue per customer relatively low.
  • [07:33] Jordi: “AI is not a bubble enterprise...Nearly 150 enterprises each process 1 trillion tokens with Gemini models...That is 0.3% of GCP annual revenue.”
• OpenAI’s losses (over $11 billion reported last quarter) largely framed as CapEx investments.
  • [09:08] John: “These are not losses. These are investments...I would assume that a lot of OpenAI's losses are actually investments in CapEx.”
  • [09:40] Tyler: “First half of 2025, they were going to do 3.5 in losses. So this is basically double that.”
• API token processing: OpenAI’s API is around 250 trillion tokens a month.
  • [08:02] Tyler: “OpenAI is doing like...around like 250 trillion a month. If it's a trillion over the past, like, year...that's still pretty bad.”

Notable News & Moments

Coinbase’s Earnings Call Easter Egg

• CEO Brian Armstrong reads off buzzwords to satisfy a prediction market.
  • [08:12] Jordi: “On the Coinbase earnings call yesterday, Brian Armstrong...just read through and read off every single word that he had missed.”
  • Gamification and memeing of earning calls noted as growing trend.

Palantir Lawsuit

• Palantir sues ex-employees for creating rival AI firm Percepta using stolen secrets—backed by General Catalyst.
  • [09:45] Jordi: “Palantir sues former employees for stealing company secrets...called Percepta, backed by General Catalyst.”
  • [10:01] John: “I would not want to steal from Palantir...That seems like one of the worst companies to steal from.”
  • [10:07] Jordi: “They will find you and they will kill you.” (jokingly referencing Palantir’s reputation)

BlackRock & Wild Loans

• BlackRock hit by fraud on telecom loans; broad fraud signals “good times.”
  • [10:20] Jordi: “Large scale fraud is actually a sign of good times.”
  • [10:21] John: “I mean, that's true.”

Memorable Quotes & Banter

• [03:38] Jordi (on Meta’s spend): “This is like, you know, I'm sure Meta and the executive team, it's like after a weekend bender checking like your credit card statement.”
• [06:58] John (on Jensen Huang): “He is the most value creative founder CEO in human history. No one's created 5 trillion in any capacity.”
• [10:45] Jordi: “Hard boiled eggs are really an insane snack.”
• [10:48] John: “It's not more protein than a steak in a bag. You gotta go Chesky mode. Throw a steak in the bag and take it with you everywhere.”
• [11:07] Jordi: “Am I gonna go home and trick or treat with the kids like this? No, I do not want to traumatize my young children.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Halloween costumes and intro: 00:00 – 00:47
• Mag 7 earnings rapid fire: 00:49 – 06:58
• Enterprise AI and OpenAI’s finances: 07:23 – 09:08
• Coinbase prediction market moment: 08:12 – 08:57
• Palantir lawsuit coverage: 09:45 – 10:07
• Fraud, trucks, and snack banter: 10:20 – 10:48
• Closing (trick-or-treating as tech titans): 11:07 – 11:18

Conclusion

This Halloween episode delivers a rapid-fire, humor-laced yet sharp analysis of the tech market’s current state. The hosts break down the Mag 7’s earnings, poke fun at industry trends, muse about the future of AI and robotics, and riff on the more absurd corners of corporate life. Whether it’s billion-dollar misses, AI token counts, or the relative merits of steak vs. eggs, the TBPN team brings both clarity and comic relief for any tech enthusiast.