Podcast Summary: TBPN — "Ellison's Counter Offer, Chinese H200s, Data Centers in Space"
Hosts: John Coogan & Jordi Hays
Date: December 9, 2025
Featured Guests: Aaron Ginn, Matt Kalish, Emil Michael, Blake Scholl, Naveen Rao, Ofir Ehrlich, Gorkem Yurtseven, Pedro Franceschi
EPISODE OVERVIEW
In this lively holiday-season episode, the TBPN team dives into the intersection of technology, finance, media, and the shifting global landscape. The show balances real-time dealmaking commentary (especially the Paramount–Warner Brothers merger saga), emerging AI hardware developments, geopolitical moves in semiconductors, the future of data centers (possibly in orbit!), and the startup boom in foundational infrastructure. Through a mix of sharp takes and humor, the hosts and powerhouse guests unpack the moment’s most consequential and weirdly entertaining tech stories.
SEGMENTED HIGHLIGHTS & KEY DISCUSSION POINTS
1. Paramount’s Hostile Bid for Warner Brothers
- Context: Paramount has launched a hostile all-cash bid to acquire Warner Brothers, sparking intense intrigue in the media and tech worlds.
- Jordi Explains:
- The board’s fiduciary duty is often misunderstood. It's not always just the highest offer: “Maximizing shareholder value is an expected value calculation.”
— (03:49) - Uncertainty in deal closing, regulatory risk, and opportunity costs matter more with big assets than with simple share sales.
- The board’s fiduciary duty is often misunderstood. It's not always just the highest offer: “Maximizing shareholder value is an expected value calculation.”
- John: “How much of the calculus is just a deal that will actually get done?” (04:18)
- Ellison’s Approach:
- David Ellison’s series of escalating offers, moving to 100% cash, shows a “clinic of just not taking no for an answer.”
— (06:40–07:28) - Paramount’s funding reportedly comes from a global pool including Saudi, Qatari, UAE sovereign funds, Tencent, Redbird Capital, and Larry Ellison as a backstop.
- David Ellison’s series of escalating offers, moving to 100% cash, shows a “clinic of just not taking no for an answer.”
- Meme Moment: “He sent a text to David Zaslav, but misspelled his name… I appreciated your underwater today, wanted to send a quick text…” (02:25, 16:52)
- Key Risks Discussed:
- Financing risk: Will the offeror truly have the funds at close?
- Regulatory risk: Would a deal even get past CFIUS/FTC scrutiny? (eg, Disney or ByteDance would be blocked outright)
- Breakup fees: A failed deal can still be lucrative (see: Figma’s $1B from Adobe).
- Quote: “I feel like it’s coming together that [Zaslav] will be remembered as an incredible business executive for this deal.” — Jordi (12:55)
2. Geopolitics of Semiconductors: Nvidia H200s to China
- Hot Topic: The U.S. will now allow Nvidia’s H200 AI chips to be sold to China, with a 25% government cut—a significant policy shift.
- Trump’s Pragmatism: “Trump fundamentally is a pragmatist... he's interested in making deals, not ideological warfare.” — Aaron Ginn (62:03)
- Tensions:
- Do you accept lower short-term risk by supplying China, knowing they'll keep pushing to build domestic capacity anyway?
- Is selling key silicon like "selling missile tech" or just keeping U.S. dominance in the loop?
- John: “It feels impossible to make the argument that we're going to get [China] addicted to the US AI supply chain...they'll never develop their own...”
- Aaron Ginn Pushes Back:
- The CCP’s control over entrepreneurs is limited; saying 'no chips' gives them a “demand argument” to justify doubling down on SMIC and others.
- "I’d rather take money from their economy and put it into ours.”
- Debate:
- Is competition with China really about technical lock-in, education, or inevitability?
- Car analogy: "If Tesla never exported to China, would BYD, Huawei, Xiaomi cars exist or be delayed?”
- Quote:
- “They view competition as competition.” — Aaron Ginn, on Chinese culture (71:44)
- “If you remove the demand stuff...we’re removing...justification to accelerate on the SMIC side.” — Aaron Ginn
3. Space as Data Center Frontier
- Narrative Launch:
- Gavin Baker claims “the most important thing...in the next three to four years is data centers in space.”
— Clip played (32:47–36:52)
- Gavin Baker claims “the most important thing...in the next three to four years is data centers in space.”
- Rationale: Cheaper energy, passive cooling, potential for faster interconnects (using vacuum for laser links).
- Skeptics Push Back:
- Physics of cooling in a vacuum, need for huge radiator mass.
- Practicality: Maintenance, hardware replacement, orbits, Sun exposure ("you only get light 50% of the time on the moon!").
- Delian (via text): Current tech is far from supporting gigawatt-scale orbital compute. Launch cadence, power density, and radiative cooling are major bottlenecks.
- Quote: “This is a giant percentage of the cost. The lowest cost energy in our solar system is solar energy in space.” — Gavin Baker (33:32)
- John: “People that actually put things into orbit are skeptical of this on a short horizon.” (37:31)
4. Major Guest Segments
Aaron Ginn (Hydra): U.S.–China AI Policy
- Argues for pragmatic engagement with China—technology is not as "weaponized" as some claim; the U.S. should maximize its leverage and profits.
Matt Kalish (DraftKings, Hardscope): Creator Media and Brand Partnerships
- From building DraftKings to scaling Faze Clan/Hardscope, Kalish sees creator partnerships evolving, with much runway for innovation especially in food, sports, and commerce.
- “Nobody does [creator partnerships] well…unless you’re a pure-play specialist.” (90:38–90:56)
- Hardscope pitches itself as back-office and growth-scaling partner for creators/collectives.
Emil Michael (U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering): AI Adoption in Government
- Partnership: U.S. Dept. of War and Google Gemini providing 3M+ government employees with secure, on-prem Gemini access.
- “It’s entirely new territory...AI in secure networks is a new structure.” (105:13–106:18)
- U.S. aim is to support all national AI champions (OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, X) and provide government land/power for new data centers.
- “We're the first group in the last six months to really realize we better get great and stay great... it's a race.” (107:33)
- Securing data: models are custom, learning is siloed, no leakage to shared AI models.
Blake Scholl (Boom Supersonic): Pivot to Energy Hardware
- Boom, known for its supersonic jet, is now repurposing its engine tech for data center turbines (super efficient, 42MW, for AI compute).
- Blake’s tour of the factory demonstrates end-to-end hardware production, enabled by vertical integration.
- “It feels like doing it on easy mode—XB1 had 68,000 parts, a turbine has less than 2,000.” (139:46–140:20)
- This move provides cash flow to ultimately realize Boom’s greater ambition: passenger supersonic travel.
Naveen Rao (Unconventional AI): Rethinking Computer Hardware
- Unconventional’s mission: “Rebuilding from the transistor layer up” for AI—going beyond digital logic, targeting 1000x efficiency for AI workloads only.
- $475M seed round justified by the incoming energy crunch: “If we keep scaling AI, we’ll run out of energy.”
- “We’re not just designing hardware—we're co-designing from circuit to algorithm, as biology does.”
- Hiring: not massive headcount, but high burn for hardware iteration and prototyping.
Ofir Ehrlich (Beyond): Cloud-Native Data Infrastructure
- $300M new round for innovative, cloud-native backup/data-access platform; focusing on making all enterprise data accessible and affordable for AI training/analytics.
- “As companies move to the cloud, managing their data is a big problem...no need for tape or on-prem legacy.” (170:54–171:46)
Gorkem Yurtseven (Fall): AI Image/Video Generative Models
- Announced a $140M Series D (3rd raise this year, with Sequoia, NVidia backing), revenue 8x’d in 2025.
- Surprising to the team: AI image editing revenue has overtaken video generation, though video progress will catch up.
- “Image models… are so good now, and people are getting faked out all the time.”
Pedro Franceschi (Brex): $5.6 Billion Card Partnership
- New partnership: Fifth Third Bank will roll out Brex-branded cards to their clients, a huge expansion.
- “We built our own rails from scratch—this enables us to move fast, deliver local issuance in 200+ countries, and adapt for enterprise needs.” (193:02–195:04)
- On global payments: “The value is keeping clients in local currency as much as possible; stablecoins don’t help that much with the last mile.”
5. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
Host Humor & Color Commentary
- “They should release the full DVD set just called 'Guys Being Dudes.’” — John, on Warner Bros’ “masculine cinema” vault (15:00)
- “Every Code Red is followed by a Baja Blast.” — John, referencing OpenAI and Mountain Dew (210:18)
Insightful Industry Quotes
- Aaron Ginn: “If you view what, you know, the H200 black war or whatever as a, as a Patriot missile, then like there's no real place to like have a conversation. That's irrational.” (74:11)
- Emil Michael: “There is no bigger organization than the Dept of War. There's no more exquisite, crazy, interesting use-cases... It's the world's biggest tech deployment.” (113:59)
- Blake Scholl: “After fundraising for a decade, I can't tell you how good it feels to have a round that lets us ship the revenue product to fund the rest.” (140:22)
- Naveen Rao: “Time is your biggest enemy.” (on both racing and startups) (167:28)
6. Other Timely News & Announcements
- SpaceX leak: prepping for an IPO at a staggering $1.5T valuation, possibly as soon as mid-to-late 2026.
- Outrage: University of Utah inked a $500M private equity partnership for its athletics program—sparking debate on the increasing financialization of college sports.
- Private tech stack drama: “Meta Superintelligence Lab went on a hiring spree…delivered absolutely nothing…mass exodus.”
- TVPN meta-moment: “What is worthy and valuable?” Sparked by Patrick Collison’s viral meditation; hosts riff on how most career paths can’t participate in “high-mission” industries like space.
TIMESTAMPS OF MAJOR SEGMENTS
- Paramount/Warner Bros Mega-Deal Explained: (00:02–18:01)
- Nvidia H200s & U.S.-China Chip Geopolitics: (18:12–41:20; Guest: Aaron Ginn 61:33+)
- Data Centers in Space (Gavin Baker Argument): (32:01–41:52)
- DraftKings/Creator Economy & Hardscope Launch: (82:27–98:46)
- Military AI Adoption with Google Gemini (Emil Michael): (103:01–120:44)
- Boom Supersonic's Pivot to AI Turbines: (131:37–147:43)
- Rethinking AI Hardware (Naveen Rao): (155:01–168:33)
- Cloud-Native Data Infrastructure (Ofir Ehrlich, Beyond): (168:47–177:17)
- Generative Media as SaaS (Fall, Gorkem): (177:36–187:45)
- Brex’s $5.6B Card Distribution Deal: (187:47–197:45)
OVERALL TAKEAWAYS/THEMES
- Tech/Finance/Media are more entwined than ever — Legacy companies fight for relevance while global finance and Big Tech call the shots.
- AI infrastructure arms race is both technical and geopolitical — the U.S.-China chip struggle mirrors recent industrial rivalries, intensified by the centrality of talent, capital, and market access.
- Tech’s scope is shifting from bits to atoms (energy, hardware, real-world logistics)—but requires massive capital and tolerance for “hard mode” iteration.
- The next mega-platforms will be built at infrastructure’s edge: whether data (Beyond), compute (Unconventional) or financial services (Brex).