Podcast Summary

Podcast: TBPN
Hosts: John Coogan & Jordi Hays
Episode: Elon Musk's Banker, Beijing Pours $26B into Robot Boom, How Apollo Dodged SaaSsassination
Air Date: February 10, 2026

Overview: Episode Theme & Purpose

This episode is a deep and lively dive into the latest tectonic shifts in tech and finance. John and Jordi dissect the looming SpaceX IPO and the man behind many legendary tech IPOs, Michael Grimes. The conversation moves through the looming "SaaS apocalypse" due to AI disruption, China's rapidly-expanding (and government-backed) humanoid robotics industry, and the shifting ground under VCs and hardware startups in an "American Dynamism" era.

Loaded with top-tier guests (including Ashlee Vance, Ethan Thornton, Kris Marszalek, and more), the episode gives an on-the-ground sense of investor trends, product launches, and the drama enveloping iconic companies. The hosts’ signature blend of irreverence, deep tech knowledge, and fast-paced banter keeps the show engaging throughout.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Michael Grimes: Elon Musk’s Banker & the SpaceX IPO

[03:30–11:36]

• Who is Michael Grimes?

  • Legendary investment banker who took Facebook, Google, Tesla, Uber, etc., public. Noted for using every product he takes public (“I played hours of Farmville before the Facebook IPO. I drove for Uber before Uber’s IPO.”)
  • Engineering background (EECS at Berkeley) makes him an unusually tech-savvy banker.
  • After government service, Grimes returns to Morgan Stanley as Chairman of Investment Banking—interpreted as a signal SpaceX’s IPO is imminent.

• SpaceX IPO Details

  • Expected to raise up to $40B, possibly the biggest tech IPO ever; $400M in fees to banks.
  • Banks lined up: Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, JPMorgan, Goldman. Citi at 50/50 odds (Kalshi prediction market).

• Grimes’ Unique Role

  • “Go hunt. Go fish. Go do whatever you need” (insider description of his role at Morgan Stanley).
  • Hosts riff on whether Grimes should “go to space" himself like Jared Isaacman for the ultimate product diligence:

    "Going to space is better than playing Farmville or driving an Uber." — John (09:36)

Memorable Quote:

"He likes to dig in. He'll spend hours using the product. He even drove for Uber before taking Uber public." — John [04:38]

2. The Great SaaS Reckoning: Apollo & the "SaaSassination"

[20:39–40:42]

• Apollo’s Avoidance Strategy

  • Apollo’s Mark Rowan: Their choice to avoid expensive software during the SaaS bubble means they're positioned for outperformance now that AI is eating into software margins.
  • “A lot of PE performance will depend on who avoided the sector most exposed to AI.”

• The SaaS Model Under Siege

  • Seat-based pricing is at risk; agents and AI could drastically reduce headcount needs.
  • Monday.com cited AI as a threat on their earnings call; stock crashed 21%.
  • Even consulting and “forward deployed engineer” work is being recast as “consulting in disguise.”

• Labor Market Tremors

  • Unemployment low, but hiring slowed, and people are afraid to quit.

Notable Quotes:

"Sasspocalypse or sassmageddon, but 'SaaSassination' was right there!" — John [20:47]
“Buco Capital is out for blood... This business only needs half their employees.” — Jordi [26:35]

3. China's $26B Humanoid Robotics Gamble

[44:25–55:11]

• China's Moonshot

  • $26B+ in investment; 140+ startups; proactive state support with land, cheap rent, loans.
  • Advanced models (Unitree, AI Squared, Ubtech, Panther) going into factories, museums, hotels.
  • Risks: Bubble fears as hundreds of companies chase government incentives.

• Contrast with the U.S.

  • U.S. strong in AI brains; China dominant in supply chain and manufacturing.
  • Supply chain advantage allows rapid iteration—“they just pick up the part across the street.”
  • U.S. robotics companies heavily reliant on Chinese suppliers.

• Cultural/Marketing Angle

  • Elon Musk on why China will “kick ass” in humanoid robotics.
  • Drone shows, robot exhibitions becoming national spectacles.
  • Concerns about real strategic use cases (“put the E-commerce package in a box—they’re already doing it.”)

Memorable Moments:

“China’s humanoid robots are getting taller very quickly … 4’4”, 5’3”, 5’9”… and now, 5’11” — robot mogging incoming!” — John [45:41]

4. Consumer AI: The AI.com Super Bowl Gambit—Interview with Kris Marszalek

[122:45–139:46]

• Buying AI.com

  • Marszalek (also Crypto.com CEO) purchased the AI.com domain for $70M.
  • Turned down a post-purchase $500M+ offer.
  • “Diamond hands. I am pot committed.” (137:53)

• Super Bowl Ad Rollout

  • Bought a Super Bowl ad slot before the product was ready, built AI.com product for a mass consumer launch.
  • Collected 300,000+ signups in one day despite some site downtime.

• Vision:

  • Goal: Consumer AI “personal chief of staff”—context-rich, proactive, privacy-respecting.
  • “Every person on Earth will have an assistant like this… we will see what the journey brings.” — Marszalek [131:46]

• Business/Tech Realities

  • Integrations with consumer platforms (email, calendar, WhatsApp/iMessage, etc.) have both UX and political obstacles.
  • Will iterate product post-launch—“move fast, listen to the users.”

Notable Quotes:

“I could have got a billion for the domain—but I want to build something enduring.” — Kris Marszalek [137:24]

5. Hardware, Defense, and 'American Dynamism'—Interviews with Ethan Thornton (Mach Industries) and Dana Grayson (Construct Capital)

[97:17–121:14 and 177:04–195:38]

• Mach Industries (Ethan Thornton)

  • Focus: Manufacturing & deploying unmanned drone systems for U.S. defense.
  • Key thesis: U.S. cannot keep up with China in sheer manufacturing but can win via asymmetric capabilities (“asymmetry, not parity”).
  • Hardware innovation, vertical integration, component supply chain as main focus.
  • “Manufacturing at scale is the hardest part.” [121:27]

• Construct Capital (Dana Grayson)

  • Defense contracts as "early adopter" advantage in U.S. reindustrialization.
  • Hardware is cool, but still hard: critical to focus on standardization, commoditization where possible, go for lean, modern approaches.
  • U.S. must leapfrog not chase China on manufacturing techniques: “Our bet is on AI, automation, new systems—not out-muscling on yesterday’s playbook.”
  • Government is a unique buyer, and VC needs different skills (analytical, self-starterism) for these markets.

Notable Quotes:

“If we’re both making quads, China will out-manufacture us. We win by offset, not parity.” — Ethan Thornton [99:12]
“We’re good at AI and systems—the U.S. needs to leapfrog, not out-manufacture China.” — Dana Grayson [188:43]

6. The Video AI Wave: Runway’s Big Raise—Interview with Cristóbal Valenzuela

[153:22–163:28]

• Runway’s Breakout
  • Raised $315M Series C, scaling up inference and hiring.
  • Their video models (v4.5) are now an essential tool for content marketers, studios, and agencies.
  • Their secret: Simultaneously explore advanced frontier models and robust workflows and toolchains.
  • Video models as world simulators: "Eventually, these are simulation machines ... with enough examples, the model can learn almost any task."

Memorable Quotes:

"The default way you make [media] will be with AI." — Cristóbal Valenzuela [161:31]

7. Seed VC Strategies & The IPO Pipeline—Brad Svrluga (Primary Venture Partners)

[163:30–176:40]

• New $625M fund—Institutional Seed at Scale

  • Competing with mega-platform funds that continue to push downmarket.
  • Seed is "a sub asset class" requiring specialized value prop and focus on founder relationships.
  • Advice to founders: Don’t be seduced by quick-baked SaaS; true domain knowledge and resilience drive success.

• What’s Next?

  • Increasing interest in AI x Bio and app layer crypto startups.
  • IPO wave (OpenAI, SpaceX, etc.) will inject liquidity but also bring challenges (“the pipeline is full of traditional SaaS companies, and it’s unclear if they’re staging for success”).

Notable Quotes:

"You can vibe-code something impressive in a weekend—but you can't fake true founder-market fit." — Brad Svrluga [168:20]

8. Tech Storytelling & Modern Media – Ashlee Vance (Core Memory)

[196:11–221:41]

• Documentary Craze

  • Vance on embedding with robotics, AI, and the transformation of narrative for the YouTube/internet age vs. old-school Hollywood.
  • Streaming platforms (Netflix, etc.) are capping documentary spend; YouTube still “the world's distribution.”
  • Scoops often locked up for years while filming; challenges & strategies in blending short-form and long-form storytelling.

• Elon, SpaceX, & Mars

  • Shift from Mars as the goal to Moon as pragmatic reality; possible functions of going (or not) public.
  • “Elon is practical. He needs money to fund AI, to fund other moonshots.”

Notable Quote:

“SpaceX going from Mars to Moon? It’s more pragmatic, less aspirational. That made me a little sad." — Ashlee Vance [220:01]

Notable Quotes:

• “SaaS would benefit from a model plateau. If agents just keep getting better, where's the bottom for SaaS?” — Jordi [35:32]
• “If AI commoditizes asset light businesses, value just shifts back to atoms: infrastructure, energy. It was a 50-year anomaly.” — Buco Capital (read by Michael over Quiet Capital) [38:03]
• “Your margin is my opportunity.” — Jeff Bezos (quoted in context of AI lowering SaaS margins) [40:42]
• "Diamond hands. He hasn’t even been to his own arena." — [re: Kris Marszalek] [140:22]
• "Why are we not calling it 'SaaSassination?' It's right there!" — John [20:47]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [03:30] Michael Grimes background and style
• [07:36] Grimes returns to Morgan Stanley; SpaceX IPO mechanics
• [14:39] Chipotle hack story (comic interlude)
• [20:39] Apollo and SaaS under threat from AI
• [26:35] Headcounts, layoffs, SaaS apocalypse debate
• [44:25] Chinese humanoid robots: key models, gov’t push
• [53:10] U.S. robotics vs. China: supply chain, talent, challenges
• [97:17] Ethan Thornton interview (Mach Industries, asymmetric warfare)
• [122:45] Kris Marszalek interview (AI.com, Super Bowl ad, consumer AI)
• [153:22] Cristóbal Valenzuela interview (Runway, video models, funding)
• [163:30] Brad Svrluga interview (VC trends, seed, IPO wave)
• [177:04] Dana Grayson interview (Construct Capital, industrials, defense)
• [196:11] Ashlee Vance interview (Core Memory, documentaries, Mars to Moon)

Memorable Moments

• Jordi on agents:

  “So in the era of agents, every agent will require a seat…” [25:54]

• Jordi on layoffs:

  “There’s one agent whose sole job is to pull it… Everyone gets a prompt box, and then that agent has one seat...” [26:24]

• Deadpan on Mars:

  “The Mars thing was always part of Elon's genius—it was completely insane, but it built religion.” — Ashlee Vance [218:34]

• Chipotle hack confessional:

  “On second thought, I need to atone for my sins and repay Chipotle... by purchasing $21 of their stock.” — Will depue read by John [14:56]

• China robot threat:

  “China is moving quickly to dominate the industry... They have 140 companies, we have five.” [47:00]

Flow & Tone

• Language & Style: Casual, sharp-witted, deeply plugged-in; hosts riff and regularly crack jokes but never lose focus on insight.
• Energy: Non-stop—segments and interviews move quickly, yet allow for nuanced, often granular industry discussions.
• Attribution: Conversational—hosts clearly identify guest speakers and quote sources on-the-fly.

For Listeners Who Missed the Episode

This episode is an essential listen if you want to understand not just the big financial and technological headlines, but the underlying cultural, economic, and strategic shifts driving them. Whether you care about the fate of SaaS, the future of robotics, the rise of hardware startups, or the inside baseball of mega-IPOs, John, Jordi, and their guests deliver insight, news, and the kind of hallway-conversation context you can’t get from headlines alone. Plus: where else would you hear a confession about scamming free Chipotle?

End of Summary