TBPN Diet: Elon’s Go-To Banker Leads SpaceX IPO, SaaS-ination & China’s Robot Boom

Date: February 11, 2026
Hosts: John Coogan & Jordi Hays (plus regulars Jack, Grok)
Length: ~30 minutes

Episode Overview

This Diet TBPN episode delivers a rapid-fire rundown on the latest in tech and AI, with a particular focus on Michael Grimes’ pivotal role in the anticipated SpaceX IPO, the evolving landscape and existential risks in SaaS (“SaaS-ination”), shockwaves from major personnel changes at AI labs, and Beijing’s turbocharged race to robot dominance. The hosts riff on current headlines, industry news, major company strategies, and end with sharp, energetic banter.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Michael Grimes: The “Go-To” Tech IPO Banker Returns for SpaceX

Segment: [00:32] – [06:10]

• Who is Michael Grimes?

  • Jack: “He’s Elon Musk’s banker and he might be the most important person in the SpaceX IPO that’s probably going to happen this year.” [00:32]
  • Grimes is legendary for taking iconic companies public—Facebook, Google, Tesla, and many more. He’s known for deeply engaging with products he banks (e.g. driving for Uber, sinking hours into Farmville for Facebook's IPO).
  • John: “He has a reputation because he becomes a customer or user…playing Farmville” [01:47]
  • Electrical engineering, CS roots (Berkeley), plus classic Wall Street pedigree.
  • Jack: “Never really boxed in as this pure finance guy…there’s this interesting full circle moment where…he actually interned at Hughes Aircraft in the Space and Communications group back in 1985. And what is SpaceX? It’s like a space and communications company.” [02:36]
  • Just rejoined Morgan Stanley as Chairman of Investment Banking—a promotion tied, per the hosts, to SpaceX IPO prep and dealmaking.

• SpaceX IPO: Scale and Stakes

  • Potential raise: $40B, with estimated $400M in banking fees—“the roadshow of the century” [03:45].
  • Grimes given rare autonomy inside Morgan Stanley: “They were like, go hunt, like you’re a killer. Just go do whatever you need to do. Go fish.” [03:17]
  • Humor: Hosts joke about Grimes needing to actually go to space for “due diligence” (“Put Michael Grimes in the rocket.” – John [04:55]).

2. OpenAI, XAI Turbulence, and the Reality of AI Lab Exodus

Segment: [06:05] – [11:51]

• XAI Co-Founder Departures
  • Mass reported exits after XAI's acquisition—normal post-acquisition, but worrisome given scale. [06:05]
  • Discussion of “frontier” AI research vs. becoming just another hyperscaler, like AWS.
    • Jack: “Do they need to just be near the frontier, or do they actually need to be doing research to advance the frontier?” [06:23]
    • John: “As the consumer and enterprise products have…fallen behind…I don’t know.” [07:01]
  • Notable resignation message: “A small team armed with AIs can move mountains and redefine what’s possible…Thank you to the entire X AI family. And Elon, thank you for believing in the mission and for the ride of a lifetime.” [09:29]
• AI Researcher Existentialism
  • Satirical reflection on how AI safety researchers quit (“I have gazed into the endless night and there are shapes out there. We must be kind to one another. I am moving on to study philosophy.” – Jack Clark via Jack, [10:15])
  • Financial windfalls and burnout common: “...many of these people maybe made something in the range of $100 million in the last two years...why not go to the UK and write poetry?” – John [10:40]
  • Parallel jokes/desires for simpler quitting: “I just want one AI co founder researcher to leave and be like look, I got an allocation…I quit.” – Jack [11:34]

3. SaaS-ination: End of an Era for Enterprise Software?

Segment: [11:51] – [22:35]

• Apollo’s Software Avoidance → Outperformance

  • Apollo’s leader claims dodging software in favor of harder assets insulated them from the “SaaS apocalypse” wrought by AI disruption. [11:51]

• SaaS Business Models Under Siege by AI

  • Monday.com’s cautionary tale: tanked 21% on earnings after flagging “AI agents as a competitive threat” [13:25].
  • Seat-based pricing models may die as AI agents take over; consumption-based, outcomes-based, or value-based pricing likely to dominate. [13:51]
  • Quote: “One agent whose sole job is to pull [data].” – John [14:19]

• Are SaaS Companies Overstaffed?

  • Headcounts highlighted (e.g. Salesforce at 87K, Zoom at 12K, OpenAI at 7K).
  • BuCo Capital's Chest-Thumping: “Only need half their employees…in fact it would accelerate.” [14:28, 15:03]
  • KPMG signals the audit sector is under attack from automation, possibly shooting itself in the foot. [15:09]

• Long-term SaaS Defensive Moats

  • Durable SaaS: highly regulated/liability-bearing businesses, proprietary data sets, strong network effects, operationally intensive verticals (energy/manufacturing), and anything with security concerns. [20:40]
  • John: “If AI commoditizes software, what’s actually safe? Regulated, liability bearing businesses...hardware, manufacturing, energy...” [20:40]
  • Winners will be “AGI resistant” SaaS with regulatory or network lock-in; many will get their margins destroyed by nimble AI-native competition.
  • “Your margin is my opportunity.” – Jack [21:21]

• Notable Moment:

  • “The greatest rebrand in enterprise software history is calling consulting revenue ‘forward deployed engineering.’” – John [21:56]

4. China’s Humanoid Robot Surge: Arms Race with US

Segment: [23:25] – [28:08]

• China’s Rapid Advances and Scale
  • Chinese companies fielding ever-taller, more sophisticated humanoid robots—far outpacing US by company count (140 vs. 5). [25:04]
  • Major city governments and central authorities investing $26B+ since 2024, mirroring their winning playbook in EVs. [24:42]
  • Hosting robot roll-outs at industrial scale: “They’re actively introducing them into real life scenarios in factories, hotels, and offices.” – Jack [25:26]
  • Elon Musk Warning: “China is an ass kicker. Next level...to the best of our knowledge, we don’t see any significant competitors outside of China. China is moving quickly.” [25:02]
  • Current industry run-rate estimated at $600M; Morgan Stanley expects up to 100K humanoids shipped in 2026, implying revenue in the billions. [25:25]
• Notable Humanoid Stats:
  • Unitree G1: 4'4” (tall enough to kick, joked the hosts), Unix AI Panther: 5'3”, Tesla’s Optimus: 5'11”. Height regulation humor (“all humanoids should be capped at a certain height” – John [24:16])
  • Friendly banter on “mogging” your robot, and the weirdness of giving AI robots comedy or “unhinged” voice modes [25:39]

5. Notables, Humor & Oddities

Timestamps throughout

• Chipotle Lifehacks:
  • Will’s “Chipotle hat” hack: buying a hat on eBay to get an employee discount (and later pledging penance via stock purchase for his minor “fraud”) [08:43]
  • Chipotle quality has “degraded”—“I’d rather fast than eat Chipotle.” – Jack [08:20]
• Alphabet’s 100-Year Bonds:
  • Alphabet issues century-long bonds; jokes about getting paid out in 2126. [28:13]
  • “Thinking in centuries potentially underrated.” – Jack [28:49]
• Wild Tech from China:
  • ATM that melts your gold and wires you the cash (“This is crazy. There’s an ATM in China that melts your gold.” – John [29:51])
• AI Humor as Truth-Seeking:
  • “Some of it is genuinely funny though, which is like high praise. It’s a new benchmark for AI.” – Jack [07:35]
  • “The unhinged mode is certainly truth-seeking.” – John [07:54]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Michael Grimes’ diligence:
  “I played Farmville. This is the best technology. Going to space is better than playing farmville or driving.” – Jack, [05:03]
• On SaaS disruption:
  “Apollo says it avoided the pain of peers by steering clear of software holdings.” – John, [11:51]
  “Monday.com had earnings and the stock went down 21% after they flagged AI agents as a competitive threat…” – John, [13:25]
  “Your margin is my opportunity.” – Jack, [21:21]
• On AI researcher existentialism:
  “People leaving AI companies: I have gazed into the endless night and there are shapes out there…” – Jack (quoting Jack Clark), [10:15]
• On China’s humanoid race:
  “China is an ass kicker. Next level…they’re moving quickly.” – Elon Musk as paraphrased by Jack, [25:02]

Structured Segment Timestamps

| Topic | Start | End | |----------------------------------------------------|--------|--------| | Michael Grimes & SpaceX IPO | 00:32 | 06:10 | | XAI, OpenAI, AI Lab Exits | 06:05 | 11:51 | | SaaS-ination (SaaS meltdown, AI impact) | 11:51 | 22:35 | | China’s Robot Boom & US Competition | 23:25 | 28:08 | | Alphabet century bonds, gold ATM, closing bits | 28:13 | 30:27 |

Tone & Style

Fast-paced, irreverent, insider tech banter with regular asides, bits of gallows humor, and “inside baseball” jargon delivered with sharp wit. The hosts mix serious financial and strategic analysis with near-standup delivery and industry in-jokes—making the show both informative and entertaining to plugged-in listeners.