TBPN Podcast â đĄ Evan Spiegel LIVE in the Ultradome | Colin & Samir, RJ Scaringe, Scott Kupor
Date: December 15, 2025
Hosts: John Coogan & Jordi Hays
Guests: Evan Spiegel (Snapchat/Snap CEO), Colin & Samir (creators), RJ Scaringe (Rivian CEO), Scott Kupor (OPM), others
Theme: Technology industry deep-dives, platform wars, antitrust, AI, hardware innovation, and the business of creativity
đŻ Episode Overview
This packed live episode explores the rapidly evolving intersections of technology, consumer products, and creativity. Highlights include a candid conversation with Snap CEO Evan Spiegel on the future of augmented reality hardware and software, deep dives into AI's impact on product development and talent wars, the economics of Rivianâs electric vehicle strategy, the race for creative platform dominance with Colin & Samir, and Scott Kuporâs launch of a new U.S. Tech effort to bring top tech talent into government.
The episode is rich in insights around product-market fit, platform strategy, evolving media formats, talent wars, and broader societal change driven by tech.
đ§ą Key Discussion Segments & Insights
1. Opening: The Apple-Epic App Store Saga, Competition, and Platform Economics
[00:02â21:26]
- Apple vs. Epic Games lawsuit update: Court rules Apple canât charge developers an effective 30% fee on outside payments, but Apple attempts to preserve economics via re-labeled fees (IP licensing, etc.).
- âThese big momentous things happen and then the stock moves, like, not at all.â â John (04:33)
- App Store Fee Structure: Should app marketplace fees be proportional to revenue, or to actual cost? Comparison to toll vs. tax models.
- âA toll road is something where itâs like, Iâm paying $5 to drive down this road. That money goes directly towards this road.â â John (12:11)
- Ben Thompsonâs Analysis: The App Storeâs âservicesâ narrative reframes Apple as a rent-seeker, suggesting a shift from innovation to monetizing othersâ work.
- âAnytime a company predicates its growth story on rent seeking, itâs... corrosive on whatever it was that made the company great.â â Ben Thompson (quoted by John, 20:10)
[Notable Quote]
âThe price to earnings ratio grew from 10x to 40x, all on the back of the services narrativeâŚâ â John (13:32)
2. AI Talent Wars, Compensation, and Industry Shifts
[21:41â34:22]
- Vesting Periods and Talent Retention: OpenAI and XAI reduce vesting cliffs to attract top researchers, reflecting competitive market conditions and âRed Queenâs Raceâ for talent.
- Stock-based Compensation: Debate over the sustainability of massive non-cash incentives in hyper-growth startups.
- âA company that creates hundreds of billions of dollars... and then has $6B of a non-cash expense, it doesnât seem that crazy.â â Jordi (25:16)
- Private vs. Public Markets: OpenAI's $40B valuation in private markets versus high capital needs for players like SpaceX.
3. Data CentersâIn Space and on Earth: Hype vs. Reality
[37:02â43:12]
- Space Data Centers Debate: Real-world physics, cost, and cooling economics for off-planet compute infrastructure.
- Community Memes: Creative speculative takes about volcano data centers (âData center in a volcano SPACs immediately for sure.â â Jordi, 40:30)
4. Productization & The Power of Wrappers (âSelling Shovelsâ)
[51:44â55:44]
- AI Productization: A shift in AI from flashy research to tangible product benefit, with PMs/UX taking starring roles.
- Ecosystem Layers: Discussion on the value chain, from foundational model builders to the âshovelâ sellers (infrastructure, plugins, API platforms).
- âAre wrappers selling shovels? No, theyâre miningâside-mining in the gold rush.â â John & Jordi (52:12)
5. Demo & Deep Dive: Snapâs AR Glasses and Company Philosophy
Interview: Evan Spiegel (Snap CEO) [56:00â102:26]
Hardware Ambitions & Lessons Learned
-
Snap Spectacles' Evolution:
- V1 launched (2016) to test social acceptability, privacy, and core use cases.
- 2026 will see the first consumer-grade AR glasses.
- The âgame changesâ when AR is 10x more useful than a phoneânot just hands-free camera, but AI-powered, real-world-integrated computing.
-
AIâs Role:
- Running LLMs/foundation models on-device is critical for cost, scale, and user privacy. Snapâs focus is on vision, 3D, and image-based modelsânot foundation LLMs for everything (âWe haven't seen a needâŚâ â Spiegel, 61:41).
- AI as a âthought partnerâ for Spiegel: âI love to run simulated focus groups with AI, which is really fun.â â Evan Spiegel (64:06)
AR vs. VR Philosophy
- Clear Differentiation:
- Snap is âall inâ on AR; little interest in VR, which âremoves you from the worldâ (68:29).
- âWe have invested $0 into VR⌠because we essentially think it takes people out of the real worldâŚâ â Evan Spiegel (68:29)
- Snap aims to enhance real-world interaction, not replace it.
Monetization & Economy of Lenses
- Creator Monetization: Snapâs platform enables AR developers to build and monetize experiences via Lens, with built-in paywalls and rev-share.
- âWe have a ton of customers...Snapchatâs become a bit of a front door...for people to deploy their models.â (66:17)
Platform Partnerships & M&A
- AI Partnerships: Rather than build AI agents in-house, Snap partners with labs (e.g., Perplexity) for interactive Sponsored Snapsâallowing brands to directly chat with consumers.
Culture, Talent, and Leadership
- Long-term R&D Investment: $3B over 11 years into AR; focus on consistent, patient investment and resilient teams.
- Leadership Philosophy: Inverted pyramidâleaders serve teams and community; communication prioritizes clarity and impact over jargon.
- âOur investors are a subset of our community. Itâs really important that we speak...in language people actually understand.â (89:55)
Moderation, AI, and Safety
- AI for Moderation: Already widespread at Snap; the new frontier is predictive sequence models for catching bad actors preemptively.
- âWe can train sequence models based on [bad actors'] patterns...and predict when someone is about to do something against our terms.â â Spiegel (93:03)
California Vision
- Spiegel discusses housing affordability, regulatory hurdles, subsidies, and his hopes for California's competitiveness.
Memorable Moment
âBeing unapologetic about the value is whatâs so important. Start with our community that loves it, believes in it, has wanted a product like this for decadesâŚâ â Spiegel (77:51)
6. Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe on EVs, Tech Stack, and Product Strategy
[109:33â142:49]
- Rivianâs Position:
- R1T & R1S (truck/SUV) dominate U.S. high-end electric SUV share; R2 ("mass market") to follow.
- Iconic Design: Balances âfriendlyâ and âtough,â resulting in recognizable light signature and branding.
- Software Architecture: Modern, Tesla-like, centralized over-the-air updatable âzonal architecture.â
- Chinaâs EVs:
- âPull the curtain back⌠Itâs not magicâcost structure is lower mainly via labor/capital subsidies, and a few top Chinese OEMs have true tech edge...most donât.â (127:30)
- Self-Driving / In-House Chips:
- Proprietary AI inference chip (800 TOPS), new LIDAR/radar arrays; commitment to vision-based autonomy, massive data flywheel.
- Convertible Model:
- Fans (including family!) want it; remains aspirational for future release.
7. Scott Kuporâs âTech Forceâ â Tech Talent for Government Modernization
[150:09â160:14]
- 1,000-person, two-year program to recruit PMs, engineers, scientists into U.S. Government agencies.
- Centralized recruiting for federal agencies, in partnership with major tech companies (Coinbase, Nvidia, OpenAI, etc.).
- âWeâre recruiting the tech force of America to help modernize everything from the IRS, CMS, War DepartmentâŚâ
- Goal: Model for future centralized government hiring.
8. Colin & Samir: The Creator Economy, Platforms, & Culture Shifts
[161:13âEnd]
-
YouTubeâs Unstoppable Model:
- Open nature means âgreatest piece of content could be uploaded todayââHollywood/IP players (Netflix, Warner) can't compete at scale.
- IP duration: Thereâs no shortcut to generational IP.
- âYou can be niche huge in that niche. Like, you are getting stopped for a signatureâŚor never heard of them.â (167:22)
-
Netflix/Disney/Sora Moves:
- Disneyâs Sora partnership signals the gamification and user-generated interactivity future for legacy IP libraries.
-
AI, UGC, and the Platform Shift:
- AI tools like Sora lead the way for micro-monetization of IP and creator reinterpretation.
- âI actually think Disneyâs Sora deal is smartâthe only thing my three year old knows about AI is âmake a dino picture!ââ â Jordi (174:57)
- AI tools like Sora lead the way for micro-monetization of IP and creator reinterpretation.
-
Long-Form, Episodic YouTube Content:
- Creators now think in TV show/series terms; increased sophistication of formats, content duration, and platform repackaging for TV (Cleo Abrams, Hot Ones, Mark Rober).
- Show formats, chapters, and evergreen âbingeâ culture now standard; packaging, artwork, and thumbnails ever more crucial.
-
Perspective as Differentiator:
- âWeâre in a POV era. Information and attention, void of perspective, is just completely uninteresting.â â Colin & Samir (189:43)
- Longevity comes from unique viewpoints, not just information or hype.
Notable Quotes
"You can navigate how to get attention...it doesnât mean people remember you." â Colin & Samir (193:05)
âThumbnails are the gatekeepers to viewership... But now, the most important thing is setting and delivering on viewer expectation.â (205:16)
âď¸ Notable Quotes & Moments
Evan Spiegel on AR Vision (59:06)
"The biggest challenge, and we learned this with camera glasses, is it's just not that much better than taking a photo with your phone. There have to be major breakthroughs in terms of the utility people get out of the product."
RJ Scaringe on Category Strategy:
"The vast majority of trucks in the U.S. are used more like cars. Weâre not trying to address the contractor use case... so we made the R1 to be both capable and lifestyle-friendly.â (112:20)
Colin & Samir on YouTubeâs Platform Power: (164:32)
âThe fact that people will upload with the chance of getting distribution and not even looking for the economics... thatâs pretty dangerousâin a good wayâfor YouTube.â
Spiegel on Company Philosophy: (89:55)
âOur investors are a subset of our community... As leaders, weâre at the bottom of the pyramid, serving the team and community above us.â
âąď¸ Time-Stamped Highlights
- OpenAI/AI industry vesting wars: 21:41â34:22
- Snap AR Glasses discussion begins: 56:00
- Spiegel on AR, AI, and VR philosophy: 59:06â68:29
- Monetization and developer platform: 66:17
- Moderation & sequence models: 92:45
- Rivianâs RJ Scaringe on auto design, tech, & self-driving: 109:33â142:49
- Scott Kupor launches U.S. Tech Force initiative: 150:09â160:14
- Colin & Samir on platforms & content evolution: 161:13âend
đ Final Takeaways
- Tech is Integrated, Iterative, and Increasingly Human:
- The future of platforms and hardware isnât just about raw capability (AI/AR), but about utility, distribution, and community value.
- AI is at the Cultural, Creative, and Economic Forefront:
- Driving both product acceleration (Snap), social/cultural shifts (Colin & Samir), capital flows/talent wars (OpenAI), and infrastructure experimentation (space data centers).
- Perspective & Originality Are the Moats:
- In a world of infinite content and AI tooling, authentic, long-horizon value comes from unique POVs, clarity of mission, and steady investment in innovation.
For listeners old and new, this episode is a masterclass in the multi-layered, fast-moving reality of business, technology, and creative leadership.
