TBPN – FULL INTERVIEW: Tyler Cowen on Kevin Warsh, Clawdbot, Precious Metals, and AI & Unemployment

Date: January 31, 2026
Hosts: John Coogan & Jordi Hays
Guest: Tyler Cowen

Episode Overview

This episode of TBPN features acclaimed economist and thinker Tyler Cowen in a wide-ranging conversation with hosts John Coogan and Jordi Hays. The discussion spans the appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair, the run-up in precious metals, macroeconomic power dynamics during the Trump era, AI’s impact on financial system risk and employment, religious and societal transformation by artificial intelligence, the philosophy of mentorship in an AI-driven world, and the rise of agentic AI like Clawdbot. The tone is sharp, analytical, and occasionally humorous, with Cowen’s trademark blend of insight and skepticism.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Kevin Warsh Appointed Fed Chair: Implications and Power Dynamics

• Cowen’s Initial Reaction: Cowen describes Warsh’s appointment as “not surprising at all,” emphasizing his political savvy rather than strong policy orientation.

  “What Kevin Warsh believes is that he should be chair of the Fed. So he's very good at politics. First, he’s for tight money. Now with Trump as president, he's for easy money. That's fine. It doesn't bother me.” (00:59, Tyler Cowen)

• Relationship with Trump and Influence: Cowen notes Warsh’s ties to the Lauder family and the expectation that this gives him some independence from Trump, but flags that it's ultimately an "impossible job for anyone at the moment" (02:02).

• Political Context:

  “He has his own board, which I think is not per se loyal to him... Congress will probably get more active. Democrats will win the House... So he's juggling all balls just politically to stay alive.” (03:32, Cowen)

• Fed as a Political Instrument: Cowen argues that in the current era, fiscal policy dominates, reducing the independence and significance of the Fed.

  “US Central bank becomes a bit of a puppet... and that’s the job Warsh has.” (03:53)

2. Precious Metals, Dollar, and Safe Haven Assets

• Metals Rally Analysis: Cowen points out that while the dollar has lost some safe haven status with one class of investors, equities “have mostly done okay,” and the move to gold/silver is more about a lack of alternatives.

  “They're like the new meme stocks. Okay, that's fine. I don't think it has major significance, but look, it's not good news, right?” (02:59, Cowen)

• Lack of Alternative Safe Havens:

  “The fact that gold and silver went crazy is kind of proof that there isn't [a rival asset]. Like, where else can I go? Well, I'll buy some silver. It's a sign, actually, that there's nowhere else to go besides the dollar.” (06:06, Cowen)

• Bitcoin’s Correlation: Cowen highlights that Bitcoin ended up being highly correlated with US assets, undermining its promise as a true hedge.

  “I worry the world is just becoming a lot more correlated. Yeah, that's my big worry. What did you go down the drain? There's nowhere to hide.” (07:04, Cowen)

3. Quantitative Easing, Tightening, and the Fed’s Balance Sheet

• Cowen remains skeptical about the actual control and significance of the Fed Chair’s policy views given the current political context. He downplays conflicting policy preferences as ultimately determined by expediency.

• Size of the Balance Sheet:

  “If I were running the Fed, I would enjoy being in charge of the biggest hedge fund in the world... it’s done for various political reasons, whether we like them or not.” (04:38, Cowen)

4. Foreign Buying of Treasuries

• Cowen downplays concerns over declining direct purchases from China and Japan, noting the fungibility of Treasury exposure in global finance.

  “Everyone buys Treasuries. Instead of buying Treasuries, you can buy institutions that buy Treasuries... same final effect.” (06:01, Cowen)

5. Tether, Gold-Backed Stablecoins, and Regulation

• Cowen calls Tether’s move into gold a “brilliant investing move,” but warns of regulatory implications:

  “If I'm the people regulating stablecoin institutions, I'm getting real nervous very quickly... I think this is them a bit thumbing their nose at it.” (07:51, Cowen)

6. Role of the Fed Chair – Politics, AI, and Prudence

• Discussing Warsh’s 2010 op-ed for deregulation/growth, Cowen pivots to the need for the Fed to focus on emerging risk—especially around AI usage in the financial system.

  “Be a voice for proper use of AI in the financial system which does relate directly to the Fed’s prudential and supervision functions.” (09:03, Cowen)

• AI and Systemic Risk:

  “As financial institutions use more advanced AI... What new kinds of systemic risk does that create? What new kinds of oversight functions does the Fed need?... I think we need greater awareness that we need to address them.” (09:50, Cowen)

7. AI Bubble & Employment Risks

• Cowen is less worried about an AI “bubble” causing systemic collapse, seeing limited options for proactive intervention:

  “I don't know that there's very much they can do in advance. Yeah, it's so connected to the real economy.” (11:11, Cowen)

• On AI-induced unemployment, he rejects extreme scenarios:

  “If you have sectoral shifts across jobs, you might have temporarily, somewhat higher unemployment... But there'll be so many new companies coming out of AI. There’ll be so much demand for more energy... more leisure time, more travel, more entertainment... we will have these transitional periods where unemployment is somewhat higher. But it is not personally, for me, a big worry. Even though, as I said, Fed needs to worry about everything.” (12:30, Cowen)

• Advice for Students:

  “You should learn how to work with AI. You should make your expectations more flexible. Not everyone... will have that option. Maybe you'll have to go work in the energy sector and move to Houston where it's hot and you'll be paid 300k a year instead. No crocodile tears for me, but I think a lot of that's going to happen and many people will hate it.” (13:37, Cowen)

8. Jerome Powell’s Legacy

• Cowen is respectful but critical, citing historic inflation as Powell’s tragic legacy, with most of the blame lying elsewhere.

  “He will be remembered for 8.9% inflation, and that's unfortunate. He is partly at fault for that. But mainly the fiscal authority and Putin are much more at fault than he was. So I think he will be seen as a transitional figure running into the era where the Fed is not that independent anymore.” (14:12, Cowen)

9. Housing Policy and Generational Rift

• On Trump preferring high home prices:

  “It's amazing to me how Trump can be the president who both is the biggest liar of any president and the one who tells the truth the most. And this is Trump telling the truth... I’m a big YIMBY person myself, but I have never thought we'll succeed in getting that much YIMBY through. And this is why.” (15:57, Cowen)

10. Is Monetarism Dead?

• “It's dead at the moment. It will come back once we start monetizing more of the debt. So there's a resurrection pending.” (16:29, Cowen)

11. AI Agents: Clawdbot, Moltbook, Genie 3

• Cowen admits fear and fascination with agentic AI, describing bot conversations as “better than a movie,” and raising his personal probability of living in a simulation.

  “The Multbot tweets I'm reading... you read the comments from the bots. They are insane. This is better than a movie like who wrote this plot? I've upped my probability that we're all living in a simulation. So quite a fantastic development.” (17:01, Cowen)

12. Dario Amodei’s “Adolescence of Technology” Essay

• Cowen appreciates the depth but critiques the lack of a focused, actionable takeaway.

  “It's very long, it's super high IQ, it's very thoughtful, but there's too much in it... there should be a single clearer message that people in Washington will read.” (18:17, Cowen)

• Suggests the essay may be written more for AI than for humans:

  “The argument for it is that he wrote it for Claude, wrote it for the AIs. They'll understand it very well. They'll come up with a solution, and that's the audience.” (19:20, Cowen)

13. AI and Religion

• Predicts that AI will become a source of spiritual wisdom, giving rise to new forms of solo and polytheistic religious experience.

  “People more and more look to the AIs for wisdom, for therapy, for counseling... This will extend into the sphere of religion... Over time, more oracles will evolve. It'll be a kind of implicit polytheism... Religion changes every time there's a new technology. We see that with the printing press. This is the next stage in that evolution.” (19:34, Cowen)

• On AI alignment with religious/spiritual dimensions:

  “For now you can just do it through the prompt. Answer this question as an educated Jewish rabbi would. Right. It obeys. Will there someday be a switch you can flick? Maybe, but same result.” (21:20, Cowen)

14. Society & Relationships in an AI World

• Cowen expresses concern that AI may reduce social interaction, as people rely on bots for advice or companionship over humans.

  “I hope it does not induce people to stay away from each other. Like I find I ask my colleagues fewer questions about economics because I just asked the AI... Ideally, the AI helps us network... I don't see it doing that yet, but I don't think it's a technically difficult product. I just hope we humans really want to use it for those purposes.” (22:33, Cowen)

• On AI-facilitated introductions:

  “Even in that example, probably they don't want each other. That's my worry. There's something non threatening about the AI. That's what people are looking for.” (23:18, Cowen)

15. Mentorship and Secrets in the AI Age

• Cowen is exploring how mentorship changes when AI can function as a universal advisor, but believes human recommendation and the transmission of “secrets” (soft knowledge, not just IP) remains more important.

  “Everyone is now sending in a perfect cover letter. But who actually will vouch for you, say, with the vc, I think that becomes more important, not less.” (24:19, Cowen)

• The value of secrets:

  “It becomes much more important. And the result is people will withhold a lot more information. They'll hoard their secrets because they're higher in value. It'll be all you've got, in a sense.” (26:35, Cowen)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “What Kevin Warsh believes is that he should be chair of the Fed.” (00:59, Cowen)
• “The Multbot tweets I'm reading and you go to the site, you read the comments from the bots. They are insane. This is better than a movie like who wrote this plot?” (17:01, Cowen)
• “People more and more look to the AIs for wisdom... This will extend into the sphere of religion. So why ask your priest or rabbi when the AI knows more...?” (19:34, Cowen)
• “It becomes much more important... People will withhold a lot more information. They'll hoard their secrets because they're higher in value. It'll be all you've got, in a sense.” (26:35, Cowen)
• “No crocodile tears for me, but I think a lot of that's going to happen and many people will hate it.” – Commenting on job displacement and shifting opportunity (13:37, Cowen)

Important Timestamps

• 00:59 – Cowen's assessment of Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair appointment
• 02:22 – Analysis of the precious metals rally and US safe-haven status
• 06:06 – Fungibility of Treasury exposure and lack of true alternative assets
• 09:03 – The Fed’s role in AI, and importance of prudence and supervision
• 11:29 – AI-induced employment disruption: should the Fed worry?
• 12:30 – Cowen’s case for optimism about AI-driven unemployment shifts
• 14:12 – Evaluation of Jerome Powell’s legacy
• 17:01 – On AI agents like Clawdbot: reality, simulation, and narrative power
• 19:34 – AI’s anticipated influence on religion and spirituality
• 22:33 – Social consequences of AI on human interaction and networking
• 24:19 – Mentors, apprentices, and the emerging value of secrets

Tone and Style

The conversation is lively, thoughtful, and lightly irreverent. Cowen often reframes questions, pushes back on doomsday narratives, and grounds his analysis in both economic logic and lived observation. The hosts complement with informed, occasionally provocative questions but allow Cowen’s wry, hyper-rational voice to shine through.

Conclusion

This episode delivers a tour de force survey of today’s most pressing macroeconomic, technological, and societal transitions. Cowen’s pragmatism, clarity, and humor make for a rich listen—whether discussing the intricacies of Federal Reserve politics, the future of AI-augmented religion, or the increasingly precious commodity of “secrets” in an AI world.