TBPN Podcast Summary

Date: November 18, 2025
Episode: "Gemini 3 Launch, Big Tech Backs Anthropic, OpenAI Adds Fidji Simo"
Hosts: John Coogan & Jordi Hays
Guests: Mike Knoop (ARC AGI), Jonathan Neman (Sweetgreen), Ashlee Vance (Core Memory), Jeremy Epling (Vanta), Keone Hon (Monad), Stephen Balaban (Lambda), & more

Episode Overview

This fast-paced episode centers on the much-anticipated launch of Google’s Gemini 3 Pro language model and its impact on the AI landscape. The hosts break down major product updates, benchmarks, and competitive dynamics, with in-depth perspectives from industry insiders. Additional coverage includes major fundraising and product announcements in AI infrastructure, automation in food and retail, big funding rounds, and the broader industrial tech boom.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Gemini 3 Pro: The Big Launch & Benchmarks

• Initial Reactions:

  • Gemini 3 Pro is described as “Google's most intelligent model yet”—with a major leap in reasoning and multimodal understanding.
  • "[Gemini 3 Pro is] newer, better, smarter, faster, stronger...but is it a binary step change?" – [03:43, John]
  • Hosts note this release is significant, but question if it represents a fundamental new capability or another “incremental” upgrade.

• Performance Insights:

  • Gemini 3 shines on the competitive ARC AGI V2 benchmark, reportedly delivering twice the performance of the prior state-of-the-art.
  • "Gemini 3 Pro is at 31% completion on ARC AGI2...the fastest V2 task was solved in 188 seconds, close to the human average of 147 seconds." – [13:52, John]
  • ARC AGI’s Mike Knoop later explains important nuances between V1 and V2 progress and the challenges that remain (see below).

• Capabilities Demo—Is it “Funny”?

  • Live on air, the hosts run Gemini 3 through the “stand-up comedy” and “shrimp fried rice” benchmarks.
  • Gemini 3 outputs a long stand-up bit about smartwatches and health apps (see [05:25]) and several creative food puns (e.g., “You’re telling me the sun dried these tomatoes?” [09:01]), leading to collective amusement—and critique.
  • "It's a placebo effect for hypochondriacs...I started thinking of my grandfather..." – [06:07, Gemini-generated joke as read by Tyler]
  • Hosts conclude humor has improved, but much is still unintentional and “incremental, not a step change.”

2. Industry Reaction & Competitive Context

• Big Tech “Horse Race”:

  • The release triggers prominent industry benchmarks and memes. Gemini 3 Pro is seen outperforming GPT-5.1 and Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 4.5 on key metrics.
  • “It’s great to see Google becoming a winner...They were set up to excel here, just seemed to be taken off the back foot on the consumer side.” – [11:50, John]

• Competitor Responses

  • OpenAI’s new group chat feature and the Wire profile of new CEO Fidji Simo are seen as direct plays for relevance on “Gemini announcement day.”
  • Anthropic’s massive new funding ($15B at $350B valuation) and multi-billion cloud commitments with Microsoft and Nvidia land the same week, adding to the sense of an arms race.

3. Mike Knoop (ARC AGI): Deep Dive on AI Reasoning Progress

[31:01–56:20]

• Key Takeaways:

  • Gemini 3 delivers “2x SOTA on ARC V2” and shows true complexity scaling (tackling tasks that take minutes for humans).
  • Surprising findings: Gemini 3 is “roughly along the Pareto frontier of V1”—there remain many easy tasks V1 struggles with even as V2 is mastered.
  • “AI reasoning systems with no new innovation from here can enable mass automation...But for mass innovation, that's still what we're not seeing. We need new ideas.” – [34:08, Mike]
  • The field has seen two real breakthroughs: transformers (2017) and chain-of-thought (2022), but further AGI-level leaps require new paradigms.

• Humor & Creativity Benchmarks

  • Mike discusses the challenge of verifying things like creativity and humor, noting, “to be creative, you have to intentionally break the rules, but you also need to model the rules first.” [40:52]
  • On agentic systems: “We're getting closer to mass automation for ‘verifiable tasks,’ but open-ended jobs are still hard.”

4. Generative UI: Major Product Experiments

• Google’s Antigravity IDE:
  • Hosts review Google’s new, agent-powered IDE designed from scratch for code development and agentic workflows.
  • “It feels like the first time...Google can start from scratch...You can leave comments for the AI, almost like collaborating with a human.” – [28:09, John]
• Patrick Collison's Gemini 3 demo (creating a fully interactive webpage) is highlighted as the start of viral, shareable generative UI loops.

5. Automation & Hard Tech: Leading-Edge Founders

Jonathan Neman (Sweetgreen, CEO) [59:17–91:56]

• Restaurant Automation:
  • The “Infinite Kitchen”: Sweetgreen’s in-house assembly automation enables 500 bowls/hour and recently spun out to Mark Lore’s Wonder for $186M.
  • “No one’s created a platform that works in multiple restaurants...” – [67:37, Neman]
• Principles at Scale:
  • Seed oil removal is given as an example of customer-driven but industry-leading innovation, despite being a small, “incredibly online conversation” at the time.
  • “Most restaurants as they get bigger, get worse…We have to fight that inertia at every turn.” – [80:29]
• Industry & Consumer Trends:
  • Delivery marketplace tensions, pricing, real estate, and why Sweetgreen avoids franchising are all dissected.
  • “All the answers are in the restaurant. The closer we can push decision making to the customer, the better.” – [70:39]

Ashlee Vance (Core Memory, journalist/producer) [92:45–121:06]

• Humanoid Robots Boom:
  • American vs. Chinese robotics, actuator supply chain risk (“China is the actuator capital of the world”), and the spectacle of “robot fight leagues.”
• Data Center Expansion:
  • Reports from the “Stargate” data center in Texas; boom-bust cycles and how small towns are looking at job impacts from the AI infrastructure wave.
• Reflections on Hard Tech Hype:
  • Robotics, EVtols, quantum computing, and advice for retail investors.
  • Notable Quote:
    "Either everyone is completely insane, or we are about to make massive [robotics] progress." – [113:40, Vance]
• AI: “How much would you have to be paid not to use LLMs?”
  • $10,000/month, according to Vance: “Super helpful, but I’d take the cash.” [116:57]

6. AI Infrastructure, Security, and Web3

• Jeremy Epling (Vanta):
  • Unveils new “agentic trust platform” for automating and auditing AI and security risks in GRC.
  • Discusses the changing UI paradigms of software agents and Vanta’s new “AI Agent 2.0” ([148:29]).
• Keone Hon (Monad):
  • Monad launches new high-speed, EVM-compatible blockchain and aims to distribute $187 million via Coinbase; motivated by making decentralized finance accessible ([161:39]).
• Stephen Balaban (Lambda):
  • Announces $1.5 billion equity raise to vertically integrate next-gen GPU data centers, focus on behind-the-meter energy, and double down on US infrastructure ([171:19]).
  • “Stay alive and build a rock solid business...all the AI upside is in the last period.” – [174:00, Balaban]

7. Market Moves, Memes & Industry Gossip

• Anthropic’s $15B raise at a $350B valuation:
  • Provokes comparison to Coca-Cola’s market cap.
  • “Bigger than Coke—Gemini 3 day triggers every major lab to react.” – [123:55]
• OpenAI’s business model & CEO structure:
  • The profile of Fidji Simo (Wired) and OpenAI’s odd “two CEO” model get analyzed.
• Nuclear Startup Progress:
  • News and debate around Valar Atomics and Radiant’s prototype reactors; focus is on practical engineering over novel science.
• Fun & Miscellaneous:
  • Pope Leo’s reflections on cinema and algorithms (“Beauty is not just a means of escape, it is above all an invocation.” [196:44])
  • Robinhood launches short selling; Voyager media drama; U.S. “Department of War” priorities.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Gemini’s leap:
  “Gemini 3 Pro is at 31% on ARC AGI2 ... The fastest V2 task solved in 188 seconds ... you’re getting human level speed.” – John [13:52]
• On AI models & humor:
  “What makes something funny?...Humor is accidental rather than intentional from the systems.” – Mike Knoop [41:40]
• On automation:
  “The Infinite Kitchen makes 500 bowls per hour—perfectly portioned, perfectly plated. That’s the future.” – Neman [66:41]
• On hard tech investing:
  “Either everyone is insane, or we’re about to make massive [robotics] progress.” – Ashlee Vance [113:40]
• On energy for data centers:
  “A lot of this has to come in reimagining how you interact with the grid...vertical integration is how you move fast.” – Balaban [186:15]

Quick Reference Timestamps

| Segment / Topic | Timestamps | |-------------------------------------------|------------------| | Gemini 3 Launch & First Impressions | 00:12 – 12:33 | | Standup Routine / Comedy Benchmark | 05:25 – 09:46 | | ARC AGI Benchmarks & Technical Deep Dive | 31:01 – 56:20 | | Google Antigravity IDE Review | 27:20 – 30:45 | | Jonathan Neman (Sweetgreen, Food Tech) | 59:17 – 91:56 | | Ashlee Vance (Robots, Data Centers, etc.) | 92:45 – 121:06 | | Vanta (AI Security, Agents) | 148:04 – 158:16 | | Monad (Web3 infrastructure) | 161:39 – 171:06 | | Lambda (AI Infrastructure) | 171:19 – 189:59 | | Anthropic/Microsoft Funding & Valuation | 121:39 – 127:34 | | Wired Profile: OpenAI’s Fidji Simo | 129:45 – 137:03 | | Market / Timeline News & Misc. | throughout |

Conclusion

This episode captures a snapshot of AI’s frenetic moment—Google’s Gemini 3 marks a leap but exposes both the possibilities and current limits of LLMs, especially in humor, reasoning, and scalability. The “AI lab horse race” is felt in real time, from PR stunts to Benchmark wars and colossal funding rounds. The hosts and guests remain both bullish and sober about the rate of advancement, continually looking for “step changes” while steering through technological, cultural, and business challenges. The practical integration of AI—into apps, industry, security, and even food preparation—reveals a landscape where innovation and implementation must run in parallel, and where making things useful, not just novel, is the new frontier.