TBPN Podcast Summary

Episode: Google Gemini Strikes Back, China Hits NVIDIA on Antitrust
Date: September 15, 2025
Hosts: John Coogan & Jordi Hays
Notable Guests: Bill Bishop (Sinocism/Sharp China), Pete Shadbolt (PsiQuantum), Saadi Khan (Aven), Lukas Czinger (Divergent), Kyle Samani (Multicoin/Ford Industries)

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the dramatic shifts in AI competition—highlighting Google Gemini’s surge past ChatGPT, China’s regulatory actions against Nvidia in the context of US-China tech tensions, and the explosive growth in open-source Chinese LLMs. The hosts break down the business models, market adoption, and implications of these shifts, with help from expert guests commenting on geopolitics, quantum computing, fintech, hardware innovation, and crypto treasury vehicles. The show also spotlights milestone fundraises and playful industry moments, capturing the frenetic energy at the AI-technology frontier in late 2025.

Key Topics & Insights

1. Google Gemini vs. ChatGPT — The Empire Strikes Back

• Gemini’s Surge:

  • Gemini overtakes ChatGPT in global Google searches following its "Nano Banana" feature release.
    • [05:15] “Gemini has crossed ChatGPT in worldwide search results, which is even ... an important metric to be tracking.” — John
  • Despite U.S. dominance remaining with ChatGPT, countries like India drive Gemini’s rise.
    • [07:54] “India is absolutely spiking ... Gemini is flatline and then just completely surged.” — John

• App Store Battle:

  • Gemini now #1 on App Store productivity; ChatGPT still leads in US total ratings.
  • The effect attributed to feature drops (VO3, Nano Banana), clever UX, and Google's marketing muscle.
    • [10:23] “VO3 got me to fork over $250 a month ... I feel like I’m getting access to a frontier model I can’t get anywhere else.” – John

• Interpretation:

  • Surge partly due to Google’s global reach and potential preferential promotion in international markets.
  • Discussion around possible "astrology effect” is debunked.
  • The rise signals a maturing, competitive duopoly—good for users, not necessarily bearish for OpenAI.
    • [21:10] “My read on Gemini doing well is not that it’s bearish for OpenAI at all. No, it means it’s an extremely important market ... a handful of players will win.” — Jordi

Notable Quote:

[09:25] “AI mode is within the Google search product Gemin, and to be clear, Gemini is doing really well. ... It’s been a good value trade.” — John

2. Open Source LLMs and China’s Flip

• China surging in open-source AI:
  • Chinese LLM models downloaded on Hugging Face are overtaking U.S. counterparts.
    • [21:46] “Open source models from China are set to overtake the US as downloads surge ... the flip is happening right now.” — John
  • Debate on whether open source LLMs will capture value like closed system platforms (Linux vs Android/iOS analogy).
• U.S. Tech Landscape:
  • Google releases Gemma line; Meta and OpenAI also play in open source, but China’s momentum is strong.
    • [24:48] “Google just has Gemma ... mostly like pretty small models ... Meta is really the only big player and open source in the US.” — Tyler

Notable Quote:

[22:47] “A lot of the closed source operating systems have captured like 99% of the value.” — John

3. Nvidia, China, and U.S. Trade Tensions (with Bill Bishop, [41:47-61:02])

• China’s Antitrust Probe:

  • Nvidia investigated in China for a years-old acquisition, timed alongside major US-China trade negotiations.
    • [43:02] “The timing of course is not coincidental ... it is part of a way to further encourage Nvidia and the US Government to pull back on export controls.” — Bill Bishop
  • Penalties could be severe—up to 10% of global revenue, possibly multiplied.

• Larger Context:

  • Chinese government playing multi-dimensional chess: possibly discouraging Nvidia chips to spur domestic industry, while Alibaba et al. want the best hardware regardless.
  • Huawei’s claims about domestic AI chip superiority examined skeptically.
    • [47:20] “The security forces ... may have decided to just rip off the Band-Aid and move to indigenous chips.” — Bill Bishop

• TikTok Divestiture Update:

  • U.S. & China reach a “framework” deal, but questions remain on whether it addresses real security concerns.
    • [51:12] “Only thing we didn’t contemplate was a president who didn’t enforce the law.” — Bill Bishop

Memorable Exchange

[50:23] “The narrative kind of turned to ... well, Trump kind of liked TikTok ... the cloud contracts angle ... it’s like, if you had a rival newspaper and you were given just the printing press but not editorial control, would you be satisfied?” — Jordi & John

4. Massive Fundraising & Guest Spotlights

Quantum Computing with PsiQuantum's Pete Shadbolt ([150:26–164:43])

• Announcement: $1B new funding round to build a million-qubit, photonics-based quantum computer, with anchor projects in Australia and Chicago.
  • [151:08] “We are now announcing a billion dollar fundraise for us to go ahead and actually build giant quantum computers.” — Pete Shadbolt
• Differentiation:
  • Uses semiconductors, high-volume photonics; candid about the technical risks and government due diligence.
• Use Cases:
  • Near-term focus on chemistry, material science, drug discovery—domains where conventional compute struggles.

Huge Fintech and Industry Rounds

• Aven (Saadi Khan): $110M Series E for a home equity-backed credit card offering instant, low-interest borrowing and cashback. Key: compressing a 30-day process to 15 minutes, including remote wet signature via robot arm.
• Divergent (Lukas Czinger): $290M Series E to scale manufacturing platform for defense and auto (notably their 21C hypercar), focusing on digital, flexible onshore production facilities.
• Ford Industries (Kyle Samani): $1.65B raised in 2 weeks for a Solana-based digital asset treasury—aiming for scale and M&A in the on-chain asset management space.
  • [181:14] “Spent two weeks fundraising and in two weeks we raised 1.65 billion ... definitely the most hectic fundraise I’ve ever done in my life.” — Kyle Samani

5. Industry Metacommentary, AI Podcast Farms, and Notable Startup Moments

• AI-generated Podcasts:

  • Inception Point AI launches 5,000 AI-hosted podcasts, highlights the proliferation of “slop” (low-value) content and the algorithmic podcast discovery war as LLMs flood channels.
    • [193:47] “Launched 5,000 podcasts, make 3,000 episodes a week ... break even if only 20 people listen. ... all for $1 per episode.” — John, reading from Trung Fan’s coverage

• Legacy vs. New Media:

  • Hosts muse on the acceleration of bot-created content and the coming necessity of institutional brands as quality filters (“search ‘founders podcast + name’ now”).
  • Notable “comments that aged like milk” from Hacker News, including dismissals of Dropbox, Bitcoin, Airbnb, and Cursor AI in their earliest moments.
    • [141:23] “When I was your age, Hacker News was the place. Every single day, opening up, reading threads.” — John
    • [145:05] “First real-world bitcoin transaction in 2010 ... two pizzas for 10,000 bitcoin.” — Jordi

• Miscellaneous Highlights

  • Lighthearted banter about quarterly vs. semi-annual financial reporting (Trump proposal [33:32]), personified LLM voices (Poke AI), collector Apple iPhones, and ticker symbol lore (“YOLO” cannabis ETF down 87%).
  • Tim Cook’s iPhone 17 launch sound bite and the “orange iPhone” as a nod to tech thought leaders.
    • [62:15] “We want a Daytime Emmy ... Tim out there flogging the phone like a guy selling pocket watches.” — John

• AI and the Broader Workforce:

  • Debate over real impacts—prompt engineering, jobs, and whether Americans really want to return to hunting gazelles for a living.
    • [132:32] “Sci-fi concerns have landed on deaf ears ... talk to me about, can I get a job tomorrow?” — John

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Time | Topic / Segment | |------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 05:15 | Gemini’s surge on Google Trends/App Store | | 09:25 | Gemini vs. ChatGPT: product/feature comparison | | 21:46 | China’s open-source models surpassing US on Hugging Face | | 41:47 | Nvidia’s China antitrust headache — guest Bill Bishop | | 54:06 | TikTok divestiture deal, tech-trade complexities | | 150:26 | Pete Shadbolt announces $1B quantum round for PsiQuantum | | 165:02 | Saadi Khan/Aven: robot arms for notarization, Series E funding | | 171:31 | Lukas Czinger/Divergent: defense/auto manufacturing scale, Series E | | 180:54 | Kyle Samani/Ford: $1.65B digital treasury raise, Solana, M&A thesis | | 193:47 | AI podcast farms, the flood of auto-generated content |

Memorable Quotes

• “Gemini has crossed ChatGPT in worldwide search results ... important metric.” — John, [05:15]
• “My read on Gemini doing well is not that it’s bearish for OpenAI at all. ... a handful of players will win.” — Jordi, [21:10]
• “The timing ... is not coincidental. ... a way to further encourage Nvidia and the US Government to pull back on export controls.” — Bill Bishop, [43:02]
• “We are now announcing a billion dollar fundraise for us to ... actually build giant quantum computers.” — Pete Shadbolt, [151:08]
• “Only thing we didn’t contemplate was a president who didn’t enforce the law.” — Bill Bishop, on TikTok, [51:12]
• “Spent two weeks fundraising and in two weeks we raised $1.65B ... most hectic fundraise I’ve ever done.” — Kyle Samani, [181:14]
• “Launched 5,000 podcasts, make 3,000 episodes a week ... break even if only 20 people listen.” — John (from Trung Fan), [193:47]

Episode Highlights & Tone

• Rich banter and humor: Celebratory moments (e.g., no longer being in “quotes” in media, Wall Street Journal feature) mix with frank, technical market commentary.
• Insider takes: Critiques of viral LLM trends, startup war stories, and “slop” AI content, balanced by real admiration for technical execution and massive fundraising.
• Current events + business model depth: Real focus on how the AI and semiconductor battles will play out—globally and in the U.S.—with clear grasp of both technical and business stakes.

Conclusion

This episode captures a pivotal moment: Google’s Gemini mounts a serious challenge to OpenAI, the global LLM arms race accelerates (especially with China’s open source wave), and the geopolitics of chips reach a new fever pitch—with Nvidia as the prime target. Major industry guests break down what’s happening in quantum, fintech, hardware, and crypto, all while celebrating the playful, relentless, slightly absurd energy that defines the modern tech climate.

For a pulse on where AI, tech, and startup culture stands in late 2025, this is essential listening and a testament to how fast “the future” is arriving.