TBPN Podcast Summary

Episode: Guide to the AI Barnyard, Eli Lilly Hits $1T Valuation, Has AI Ruined the Em Dash?

Hosts: John Coogan & Jordi Hays
Guests: Julia Steinberg (Arena Magazine), Bobby Ghoshal (Dupe)
Date: November 21, 2025

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode explores key stories at the intersection of technology, business, and culture. The hosts discuss Eli Lilly's historic $1 trillion valuation (the first for a pharma company), the unprecedented boom in AI-driven weight loss drugs (GLP-1s), and break down the competitive AI market using a playful "AI Barnyard" metaphor. Further, they discuss AI's effects on writing quirks like the EM dash, trends in generative SEO, rising tech real estate prices, and host deep-dive interviews with startup founders and tech writers.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Eli Lilly's $1T Milestone & the GLP-1 Weight Loss Wars

(00:11–11:20)

• Eli Lilly becomes the first pharma company to cross the $1T valuation mark.
  • Traditionally, only oil, ad, or tech giants reached such heights.
  • Weight loss is the market driver—especially GLP-1 drugs (e.g., Mounjaro by Lilly, Ozempic by Novo Nordisk).
• Backstory:
  • GLP-1 agonists were originally diabetes drugs, but pivoted to the weight loss market after surprising efficacy.
  • The big unlock came when companies realized the opportunity for appetite inhibitors in the U.S. market.
  • Patent protection has not led to total monopolies due to the way molecules and mechanisms are patented.
• Business Impacts:
  • Both Novo and Lilly are in a high-margin, duopoly market with massive demand and falling margins more than offset by volume.
  • New directions: Eli Lilly is investing heavily in manufacturing and racing to develop GLP-1s in pill form.
  • Accidental pharma discoveries are common (Viagra started as a heart drug).
• Memorable Moment:
  • "AI stands for appetite inhibitor, I guess, that's right." — [B, 02:25]

2. Adobe Buys SEMrush & Generative Search Competition

(11:20–14:43)

• Adobe acquires SEMrush for $1.9B, showing the rising importance of generative search (GEO) and SEO tools.
• Implications:
  • Adobe gains search data and capabilities, positioning for more AI model integration.
  • Other SEO/geo startups are expected to proliferate due to strong VC interest.

3. The AI Barnyard: Mapping the Market with Animal Metaphors

(15:44–43:57)

A humorous, insightful market map using barnyard animals for major AI players:

• Pigs at the slop trough: Meta and the proliferation of derivative, low-quality ("slop") AI content.
  • "Some people think basically all AI is slop." — [C, 17:11]
• Fox in the Henhouse: Oracle (potentially being disrupted by nimble start-ups/foxes).
• Cash Cow: Nvidia, as the primary profit-engine of the AI boom.
• Bull in the China Shop: Elon Musk/X, rapidly breaking norms and infrastructure speed records.
• Lipstick on a Pig: Apple Intelligence (AI features marketed as transformative, but largely shallow due to privacy constraints).
• Rooster: The "top caller" or market timer archetype (meta-reflexive joke).
• Dark Horse: SSI/Elliot, the mysterious, not-yet-public challenger.
• Workhorse: Amazon, steadily building infrastructure, not taking flashy risks.
• Black Sheep: Andrej Karpathy and other contrarians—respected insiders bucking AGI optimism.
• Elephant in the Room: The mammoth size and risk of AI infrastructure bets ($1.4T market).
• Bird’s Eye View: Leopold, the investor with deepest market insight.
• Lion’s Share: Microsoft/Satya Nadella, forking deals and taking the biggest chunk of OpenAI's IP and economics.
• Monkey Business: Podcasters, gleefully analyzing and poking fun.
• Sitting Duck: Reddit, caught unprepared, selling valuable training data too cheaply.
• Headless Chicken: Perplexity, running in many directions without a clear strategy.
• Snake in the Grass: Chinese open-source LLMs—potential disruptors, lurking but with unclear impact.
• Early Bird: Josh Kushner, early and successful investor in OpenAI.
• Donkey Work: Anthropic, doing high-volume, less-glamorous API/enterprise deals.
• Fat Cat: Google, rich, powerful, and recently competitive again.
• "If you can see this infographic, it really makes everything crystal clear." — [B, 43:46]

4. Profile: Lisa Su and AMD vs. Nvidia

(43:57–56:18)

• Lisa Su’s leadership pivots AMD entirely toward AI chips, quadrupling company value.
• AMD competes with Nvidia’s dominance, especially as inference chips gain prominence.
• Su’s strategy: “Much more dangerous if you underinvest than if you overinvest.” — [B, 50:29]
• Touches on family links: Lisa Su and Jensen Huang (Nvidia CEO) are distant cousins.
• AMD's efforts are reported to be catching up on both performance and deal flow—especially with recent contracts for OpenAI and Oracle.

5. AI’s Impact on Writing: The End of the EM Dash?

(64:24–74:39)

• AI language models (notably ChatGPT) are heavily suspected based on their penchant for the em dash (—).
  • "EM dash is now a GPT-ism. It is not advisable unless you want people to think you're writing as an output of an LLM." — [A, 66:18]
• Joel Stein’s WSJ defense: The em dash is “deeply human.” He frames the anti-em dash sentiment as a misunderstanding of professional writing, which LLMs are heavily trained on.
• Wider discussion of 'contrastive parallelism' (the “not this, but that” rhetorical construction), which has also emerged as a telltale sign of AI authorship.

6. Spotlight: Startup Founders & Tech Writer Interviews

Julia Steinberg (Arena Magazine)

(112:33–143:51)

• Reflects on trends in technology, print media, and the new “get your bag” culture in Silicon Valley.
• Shares experiences from elite educational environments (Stanford, LA private schools), college admissions scandals, and the changing mood amidst the AI and tech boom.
• Debates future of law careers in an AI-dominated world.
• Discusses San Francisco’s urban challenges and the effects of tech affluence on local economies.
• On AI and legal work: “If you're like the top 5% of law students, you're probably gonna be fine. Yeah, we're still gonna have judges. Judges are one thing that I'm like, maybe AI should just replace judges.” — [E, 124:14]
• On San Francisco: “San Francisco, it's always sort of been like a young person city.” — [E, 141:00]

Bobby Ghoshal (Dupe)

(144:11–163:32)

• Dupe: an AI-driven shopping companion that helps users find “dupes” (similar, less expensive products) — starting with furniture and moving into fashion.
• Technical/Product challenges: true shopping value comes from relationships with brands/providers and live data—not just scraping or prompting.
• Dupe’s impact on drop-shippers and anti-consumer pricing.
• Growth metrics: approaching $100M in GMV, millions of users, recently #1 in App Store.
• On product focus: “AI is not a panacea. You have to pick your battle. For the last year and a half, we've been focused solely on furniture.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Eli Lilly's $1T moment:
  “Whoever creates a cure for obesity is gonna be a trillionaire.” — [A, 00:32]

• On the pharma patent duopoly:
  “It’s not a winner-take-all situation. What’s happening is, it’s a duopoly right now, but demand is so high that they still have high margins.” — [B, 09:23]

• On Apple Intelligence:
  “They took a bad model and they dressed it up and they said it was great… There’s no amount of marketing that can change public perception once the product hit the market.” — [A, 21:48]

• On “legibility to capital”:
  “Becoming legible to capital is the single greatest superpower for a fledgling firm. Look at Ramp, Cognition, Leopold, Tony and Dan. These are all superhumans at being legible to capital.” — [B, 104:13]

• On AI-writing tells:
  “Contrastive parallelism... it’s not this, it’s that... I don’t know how that got baked in. Maybe from marketing.” — [B, 71:09]

• On viral app success:
  “We shot our shot and we kind of netted it, but it happened within a couple hours of us going live. I didn’t expect that.” — [D, 162:14]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Eli Lilly $1T & GLP-1 Drug Race: 00:11–11:20
• Adobe Buys SEMrush & GEO: 11:20–14:43
• AI Barnyard Market Map: 15:44–43:57
• Lisa Su & AMD’s AI Pivot: 43:57–56:18
• SF & Tech Real Estate (Mansion Section): 56:32–64:24
• AI Ruined the Em Dash? (Writing & Language Models): 64:24–74:39
• Venture Funding, Meme Stocks, Legibility: 104:13–112:31
• Julia Steinberg Interview (Print media, Gen Z, Law, SF): 112:33–143:51
• Bobby Ghoshal Interview (Dupe.com): 144:11–163:32

Tone & Style

The conversation is fast-paced, funny, and laden with internet and business in-jokes. Animal metaphors and self-referential humor are abundant, but deep dives into finance, emerging tech, and society give the episode substance.

For First-Time Listeners

This episode provides a wide-angle snapshot of the business and tech zeitgeist in late 2025—covering trillion-dollar pharma feats, the complexities of AI and IP, playful yet insightful market analysis by metaphor, and direct startup founder experiences. If you want a mix of irreverent commentary, geeky deep dives, and sharp founders’ perspectives, you’ll find this episode both accessible and rewarding.