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You're watching tvpn.
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I think we nailed that. We are live from the New York Stock Exchange. The real fortress of finance, the capital of capital.
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Our second favorite place to do business.
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Yes. And we have some fantastic news. We have a partnership with the New York Stock Exchange. Announcing today. We have a post here from Lynn Martin, president of the New York Stock Exchange.
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Living legend.
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She says a really bright spot for 2025 has been getting to know these guys. That's us. We're proud to announce today that the New York Stock Exchange has teased TVPN's exclusive exchange partner covering the IPOs of tomorrow. We are proud to provide the backdrop for their coverage of the next wave of tech driven innovation. With Jordy Hayes and John Coogan and the entire team at tvpn, this partnership underscores our commitment to providing the premier platform for companies that shape our future.
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Well said. To Lynne, this partnership was probably the most natural made.
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Match made in heaven.
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Match made in heaven. Truly not just saying that. We got together for the first time for the Figma ipo. Got to come back for the Klarna ipo. Two of the more memorable moments from this year. And Lyn and the whole team here are just fantastic. So this will be our home when we are on the east coast. We love it here and we have a super fun show today.
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Should we start with Gemini? Yes. And so this is the correct take. He's talking about Gemini winning the AI race and, and questioning is it bearish for the market as a whole. If you think about it, which is what efficient market hype said. Gemini winning the race is like super bearish for the market if you think about it. And he says Gemini winning ensures zero profitability for any other model. Google will force any other player into an endless sea of red ink by keeping its model free until they bleed out and then it will monetize once its monopoly is secured. That means ain't no one making money on datacenter Capex. Oops.
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Hot take. I think it's, it's, it's thought provoking.
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Yes.
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I disagree with a lot of it.
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Yes.
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It's very real in some sense that we always knew that Google would put an incredible amount of pricing pressure on cash flow on OpenAI. They have the cash flow again even in the areas that OpenAI also wants to compete. Consumer electronics science, I'm sure you know chips obviously. So all these areas that not even core to OpenAI's business today. Google has already been investing billions and billions and billions of dollars in these categories. For a long time. I'm not convinced that there will be a monopoly in alums. It feels today like we're headed towards like a duopoly at the very least. And you can just easily see that there will be a number of other players making plenty of money. I feel very, I feel very good about Anthropic right now. Right. Anthropic thought. Dario's commentary yesterday at Dealbooks is fantastic. He literally said the word yolo.
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Oh, really? I do have an overall rebuttal. My rebuttal to Ross Hendricks here is that Google likes good margins. They grew up with the best margins. It's in their culture that they had 80% margins. And then also there's this constant thing when you're a public company that even if there's the new exciting thing, there's a little bit of the innovator's dilemma, there's the new exciting technology, but if it's not going to monetize as well on day one, then all of your investors, all the public market investors start asking like, is this going to structurally hurt your business? And this happened with Reels. Remember there was this big question with Instagram like, hey, we're moving from the, you know, the image based feed where it's very clear that you can just drop a link to the next thing to Reels. Is that going to monetize as well as the rest of the feed? And the answer was yes, definitely. But it took a while and, and there was like some skittishness there. And Meta had to do a lot of work to monetize that. And so I would, I would be surprised if Gemini can hold out on not monetizing forever.
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Well, they are monetizing. That's the point. Yeah, like the pricing. The pricing, at least from a consumer standpoint, is very similar. They could have gone for Both Gemini and OpenAI offers free student plans or at least a year free, but they're charging for the product. They did have an interesting announcement yesterday. They, they introduced Workspace Studio where you can build custom AI agent in minutes to delegate the daily grind, automate daily tasks and focus on the work that matters. That's their writing. So this will integrate with G Suite effectively. So it's like notify me about emails that you're determining are urgent.
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Lisa Su gave her opinion on the Google tpu.
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She broke her silence.
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She broke her silence. She responded. She fires back. Shots fired, shots fired. She's at the UBS conference and she says Google has done a good job with the TPU architecture. Over the years. But it's a more purpose built design. It lacks the programmability, model flexibility and balanced training and inference capabilities that GPUs offer.
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GPUs very similar, very similar to Jensen's line as well. I mean it's not wrong or the Nvidia newsroom line.
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The question is, you know, Ilya seems to be at SSI. Ilya Sutsker @ SSI seems to be the most age of research pilled since he coined that phrase and kind of ushered in the age of research. He seems to be the AI researcher that's doing, doing the most undirected, the most like the least purpose built training potentially. We don't know what he's doing but like you would think he would need the most flexible systems and yet it feels like he's maybe aligned with TPU. I don't know when an AI researcher would say yes, I need GPUs over TPU's. In fact, when we talked about the Trainium chip yesterday, we were reading that there's some companies that are doing interesting things on that architecture. So.
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It'S something that she has to say, but now the question is she has to go prove it with some big clouds actually building on this. And maybe she needs like a big hero training run from someone to stay like hey, it worked, we did.
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It. Who could that.
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Be? I don't know, maybe OpenAI, maybe.
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One of the new largest shareholders or potentially a large.
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Share. So Lisa goes on to say from our perspective, there is room for all types of accelerators. However, over the next five years GPU should remain the clear majority of the market because we are still early in the cycle. And I agree with this because even if you look at AI workloads at a place like Metta Gen, AI, like actual LLM inference, large language models, these large transformer based models, things that might benefit from an ASIC like the TPU that's like less than 20% of compute spend, I'm pretty sure, like there's.
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Just a ton of just recommending.
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Content. Put the ads in the chat.
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Just put the ads, put the ads.
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In the ads in the feed, in.
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The feed, Put the ads in the.
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Trough. And that obviously does use AI, it just doesn't use, you know, large language models or they're maybe not transformer based. So she says software developers want flexibility to experiment with new algorithms. That certainly sounds reasonable. You simply cannot know ahead of time what to hard code into an asic. That is the difference. I mean if you're Google, you kind of can. Since you invented the transformer, you're like, let's bake that.
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In. They might need to create the copium chip.
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Remember Nvidia? So Nvidia on November 25 said people were very concerned by this post. Nvidia offers greater performance, versatility and fungibility than ASICs, which are designed for specific AI frameworks or functions. And so again, that's, that's a fair point of view, but I think that we're already seeing that plenty of players are happy to buy a chip that is good at this position, framework or.
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Function. The other interesting thing is like, is like the, you mentioned OpenAI, but like there's nothing stopping AMD from doing something that looks like a TPU for a foundation model.
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Company. Meanwhile, Demis is moving on to the next paradigm. He is. According to Peter over at Ala Marina, Demis and the DeepMind team are hiring a research scientist for post AGI.
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Research. This is, this is what we were asking for. We were saying, we were saying, you know, there's a whole bunch of AI researchers, then there were AI AGI researchers. Then Zuck came in over the top, said, we don't care about AGI, we're going straight shot super intelligence.
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Researchers. So everybody's like, everybody's kind of banking on creating an AI that's really good at AI research. And so maybe Demis is trying, maybe, maybe Demis believes there's one out there. He's trying to bait them in. Because one of these agents might be like, I am in the post AGI era. I am.
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AGI. Like a time traveler.
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Scenario. No, no, no. Like, you know, who knows, we.
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Initially were joking about like the, the media landscape being like the, the punk landscape. And you have like pop, punk, post pop, trad punk, neo legacy, neo punk or new metal, all these different, you know, musical subgenres. All of that has come to AI fully. There is, there is AI AGI, asi song safe superintelligence, post AGI.
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Research. Now there's been back and forth on Whether or not OpenAI is rolling out ads in ChatGPT, the most recent reporting out of the Code Red memo meeting, et cetera. There was a bunch of different accounts, including polymarket, that were sharing that OpenAI is ready to roll out ads. One thing that was notable was that I saw a ton of people dunking on it being like just very against ads. And you were talking about this. Who's going to be the.
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First? Eric. So for Ben Thompson, we're holding up the wall, being like, we will stand Sam Altman and Fiji Seabo, if.
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You. And Sundar. And.
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Sundar. Sundar, we are your strongest.
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Soldiers. We will support you some way. OpenAI should want Gemini to go.
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First.
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Yes. Take the first leap. But I think that it's very possible that Google might be like, no, we'll let you do the.
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Honors. Exactly. Exactly. I think we were talking about it yesterday. One last thing, on ads, if I'm Google, I wouldn't run a single ad on Gemini Core. I'd run it at a pure loss until every competitor is forced to slap ads everywhere just to keep the lights on. It's the bleed it out strategy. But Google had the opportunity to do that with. They could have gotten into a price war on cloud. They could have said, hey, we want to come in, you know, and we're going to take zero margins on this and really try and take market share from AWS and Azure. They've all agreed, no price wars.
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Basically.
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Yeah. Let's compete on functionality, let's compete on branding, let's compete on integration. They have not had a.
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Price. Google doesn't have to spend nearly as much time building any ad. They have the ad infrastructure. Right. They have adsense. They have thousands of people out there already that just sell ads that work with. So they have all the customer relationships. There's very few businesses on earth that spend money on advertising and don't spend money with.
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Google. Sean Frank says that a ChatGPT referred session to his site Ridge.com converts at 12% and is worth $5 per visitor, the highest I've ever.
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Seen. For context, there's plenty of e commerce brands who have like a 1.2% conversion rate. They're constantly trying to improve that. But there's very notable that it's such a, such a massive difference in conversion rate. It just shows the level of intent that somebody has. When they're coming from ChatGPT, they've done a bunch of product research. Most likely they've looked at options. They're landing on the Ridge site, like basically ready to pull out a wallet and a wallet. Well, they don't have a digital.
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Wallet.
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Yeah. And.
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Purchase. Pull out a credit card from a loose. A loose collection of. Of receipts and cards and cash they've been carrying in their pockets because they need a.
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Wallet. Joe has a chart, he says, wild chart from Jim Reid at Deutsche bank showing, just showing how much OpenAI is expected to burn before turning a profit. A couple of things stand out. How small the Amazon burn really was for its first eight years. People were how Big the Uber burn was before ultimately getting in the black. And so it's hard to see the exact numbers here in this chart. Amazon looks to be like sub a few billion dollars, sub $5 billion.
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Spotify story with Amazon though was that they were just basically cash flow zero for a long time when they couldn't get 10 billion or something like that. So it was effective. But I mean that's obviously way better for shareholders than maybe we're going to lose 140.
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Billion. Maybe, maybe, maybe.
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Maybe.
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Yeah. This, this projection is factoring in Sam trying to also build Space X within Open.
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Air. Yes, that was in the.
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Business. There's in the Journal today. Why don't, why don't you read through.
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It? So this is a scoop from Berber Gin, one of the greatest to ever scoop. It says Open House CEO considers building or partnering with Rocket Co. OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman has explored putting together funds to either acquire or partner with a rocket company. A move that would position him to compete against Elon Musk and Elon Musk Space. X Altman reached out, opening up another front. Another front. Invading Russia in the winter, one might say in the winter, don't.
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Invade. Don't invade. What is it? Starbase during the air winter winter.
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You reached out to at least one rocket maker, Stoke Space in the summer and discussions picked up in the fall. According to people familiar with the talks. Among the proposals was for OpenAI to make a series of equity investments in the company and end up with a controlling stake. Such an investment would would total billions of dollars over time. The talks are no longer active, but this happens and now it's leaking. When I'm looking at this original chart of like Amazon over over eight years burnt half a billion or a couple billion. Then Tesla burnt more than Uber Burn more like and I see Open Air burning way more. It is striking, but it actually doesn't seem that crazy if we're talking about a potential really powerful monopoly. Right? If there's a really powerful monopoly, like what happened with Uber, look at the market cap of Uber, look at the market cap of Lyft and ask yourself was it worth investing $40 billion? Was it worth burning that much? If the outcome at the end of this is yep, it's going to be the front door to AI for everyone forever or for 30 years, you know, or something like that, like then it's totally worth.
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It. I feel like comparing dollars spent in the 90s versus the 2000s should probably be.
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Normalized. So yeah, yeah, it's funny that there's no. That Sam Altman is not teaming up with Jeff Bezos, who has Blue Origin but lacks a really strong AI. Bet there was a little bit.
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Of. No, he has his own company.
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Now. His own company, yes. But I would not say that Jeff Bezos has as much control over AI as Elon does with X.
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Right. He doesn't have as a co. CEO of Project Prometheus, but this just.
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Started. Whereas XI has actually scaled, has large data centers. Sure, they might be a little bit behind on certain benchmarks, they might be ahead on some other things. They might need to, you know, actually ramp the usage of this, of this product. But you can't say that Elon is like sitting on the sidelines during the foundation model.
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Wars. Yeah, And I would argue that. I.
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Would.
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Bezos. Yeah. They have 6 billion of.
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Funding. There's a natural alliance there. Bezos has, has a copy of everything Elon's done. Bezos has Rivian to compete with Tesla. He has Blue Origin obviously to compete with Space X. And he has, he has a number of other.
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Companies that feel like they mirror Elon and it feels like they've been going back and forth for a long.
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Time. In other news, Mets owner Steve Cohen has officially been awarded a casino license in New York, enabling him to build an $8 billion hotel and casino complex next to Citi Field. It's a thousand room luxury hotel, 5,000 slot machines. So for those not.
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Familiar. So slot machines, you can't normally do that in New York.
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Right? I don't think there's slots.
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In. I feel like when I think of slot machines, I think of Las Vegas and I think if that's the only place. And then maybe. Atlantic City. Yeah, Atlantic.
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City. I feel like you had an idea which was to somebody to set up a slot machine in real life, point a video camera on it and then have somebody set up prediction markets to predict what happens with the next.
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Poll. Yes, because that would help you understand what's likely to happen and you.
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Could hedge any type of.
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Risk. The slot.
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Machine. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
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Exactly. You don't want to be on the other side of that slot.
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Machine. Yeah, you get wiped.
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Out.
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Exactly. It's going to have restaurant bars and a theater for shows and 25 acres of public parks and playgrounds. Okay, so fun for the whole, fun for the whole family. The kids will be climbing on the jungle gym and they'll accidentally be pulling all the. Imagine a jungle gym that's practices with real.
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Bandits. So you get used to the.
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Muscle throwing, throwing dice, throwing Dice Cohen is essentially taking an under monetized asset, 50 acres of parking lots around the stadium and trying to transform it into a year round revenue engine that produces consistent returns, independence of how the Mets perform. And with the New York State Gaming Commission predicting that the property predicting.
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Predicting wink, wink, wink, wink, that the.
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Property will generate 3.9 billion in annual revenue, Cohen's 50 acre complex would instantly be one of the top 10 largest US casinos by revenue overeating gonna get their faces ripped off if they don't. Just focus, focus, focus. Equity deals and other bets will not win the great game. That feels to be.
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Consensus. Consensus View was talking a lot about the comparison to Google and tracking. When did Google monetize? Google wound up monetizing I think sooner than ChatGPT has. They put ads in it I think in year two it's now been.
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Google is trying to figure out effectively trying to encourage employees to do, to eat more and have more massages so that it didn't. They looked less like a monopoly.
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Right?
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I mean Google did, did get, did earn the right to do other bets by just so solidifying their market in the search engine world that then they could go and do Gmail and they could go and do GCP and they could go and do Waymo. But it's just like all of that happened after becoming cash flow positive. And I think that's why people have a little bit of like nervous energy around going to space. Okay, it's good to have a space data center bet and so you need a partnership and realistically Sam's not going to partner with SpaceX on it. I don't know why he's not just going by launch capacity from Blue Origin, but maybe Stoke Space is the, is the better option for him. But put aside all the dynamic, all the competitive dynamics, I think it's.
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Possible that Sam was looking at Stoke Space, which most recently as of October was valued at 2 billion and he was like I bought Johnny, I've for What was it, Six? Can I absorb another $2 billion company, do you.
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Think? There's obviously an immense amount of pressure right now on data center build outs. They're using too much energy, they're using too much water. If you put them in space space, do you think that helps the discourse at.
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All? I think people hate rockets, so damned if you do, damned if you.
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Don'T. But, but, but truly it's going to be much harder to say like hold up an electricity bill in Memphis and say hey, my electricity bill went up and it's because of Annie over there in the data center who's just, you know, slopping it up. Instead you're going to be able to say, hey, the data center that, yeah, it's generating sometimes helpful math homework help, sometimes creative writing stuff, sometimes it's curing cancer, sometimes it's curing cancer, sometimes it's doing weird stuff, whatever. It does a bunch of different stuff, but at least it's not increasing my power bill because it's in space and it's not an eyesore. It's not in my backyard and it's not using any water because it's up in space.
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Maybe. Who knows?
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Probably. But, but I agree then, then the discourse will be. Is blocking.
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Out. But it is notable that, that every time, every time the concept of a space data center hits the timeline, it goes viral for people dunking on it. And yet so many people want.
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To play it, but they're dunking on it as, as like a violation of the laws of physics or like not a.
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Good. Too.
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Futuristic. Too futuristic. Like it's not going to work in the near term. There are viral dunks that are going on right now around the prediction markets and those are like, those viral dunks are like, this is a bad thing. I haven't seen people dunk on space data centers saying like, I'm not morally okay with putting data centers in.
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Space. Another Jensen interview. Now I'm nervous.
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A lot of people were saying that this was somewhat.
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Bearish. I listened.
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To. There was a good excerpt here from a capital they say Jensen Huang In 2016, OpenAI was just a bunch of people sitting in a room. Joe Rogan says they're not a nonprofit anymore. Right? Jensen says they're not a non profit anymore. Joe says, weird how that works. Jensen goes, yeah, yeah, but.
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Anyhow.
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Yeah, there's some wild, wild exchanges. I just liked the way I've been calling for Jensen to go on Rogan for years. I've wanted more of the tech leaders to go on Rogan and kind of just cross pollinate the two communities. And as I read the comments on the YouTube video, there were a lot of fans of Rogan who really were like thanking him for bringing on this guy who's working on something that's like pretty opaque in the economy. You shouldn't go into it thinking you're going to get Jensen on Dwarkesh and you're just not going to get a really deep insight into Nvidia's strategy. But that's not the point of this particular interview. It's to understand who Jensen as a human and what he's kind of like thinking of broadly for the.
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Industry. Somebody is claiming that a Google insider has been trading on search markets. They're saying somebody has been betting millions of dollars or trading millions of dollars on who will be the most searched people of the year, including.
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Yeah. Just like whether or not Pope Leo will rank in Google's top five most searched people. Darren Rovel says this is what happens, what will continue to happen when unregulated markets are bet on as if they are regulated. Here's the thing. They are regulated by the.
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Cftc.
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Yep. And trading is.
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Illegal. Let's say that you just are trading corn futures and you just happen to know that there's going to be like a major blight in the corn.
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Markets.
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Yeah. And so you go and trade. If you have insider information that someone missed their harvest or something like you can actually get in trouble for trading, for doing insider trading, even in.
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Commodities.
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Yeah. You would think like what, what, what private.
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Information. The issue is prediction markets become more accurate when insiders are trading on it. Metta of course is planning to cut 30% of their, I guess a budget of their Metaverse.
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Efforts. So this is Reality.
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Labs. This Reality Labs which is worked.
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On VR and ar, but also Metaverse development. And I mean it's a lot of the stuff that was on display during Meta Connect. Some really promising stuff, some really cool.
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Stuff. People like.
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It. Also a lot of spend and so they leaked today. I don't.
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Know. The idea that this is the end of Meta's Metaverse dreams is probably wrong. I bet this will actually make them go faster. And I.
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Agree. I'm very excited for the next VR headset. I think the quest for. I think James Cameron tried it and really enjoyed it. Apparently you'll be able to buy a very small truck soon, which is a thing in Japan that supposedly not has been made.
- [23:16]
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Illegal. Yeah. So they were Biden era vehicle fuel efficiency.
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Rules. I feel like you haven't been able to buy one of these in a long time. And it never made sense because it should be the most.
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Efficient. The rule called for a yearly 2% efficiency increase for cars made from in.
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2027-2031. We're officially terminating Joe Biden's ridiculously burdensome, horrible actually CAFE standards that impose expensive restrictions and all sorts of problems. Gave all sorts of.
- [23:41]
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Problems. I wonder if this will drive people back to Tesla and saying like I, I bought this after Elon went crazy. And then Trump.
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Went.
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And then Trump brought in These, I don't.
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Know. Real loser here I would say some people would say the environment but potentially more direct is that company like Slate Auto that's trying to make a $20,000 truck. Meanwhile these manufacturers have been making the $20,000 truck at scale and they're super.
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Reliable. But I mean Americans have just voted with their wallets they do not want a two door truck. It's just, it's never worked like the Land Rover defense Fender. There's, there's so many examples of two two door SUVs that have just.
- [24:26]
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Not gotten traction like the.
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Nissan. The Nissan Murano crash Cross Cabriolet.
- [24:32]
A
Also never took off pump is announcing a historic decision at BRR. Yes 100 of equity compensation for the CEO, me and the board of directors will be tied to performance milestones. And boards shouldn't be making millions of dollars unless retail shareholders are also winning. Now that I am chart I am in charge of a public company. I hope to set the standard for what true shareholder alignment looks like. I do believe this was in reaction to an activist investor that accumulated around.
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7%. Did he also set his milestone to 10 trillion? He doesn't get a dime unless it's 10.
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Trillion. I can see that he's a perma bull. I don't think he's ever flipped bearish this whole.
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Year. And the interesting iteration on this is that it's Elon has set himself up with the equity compensation tied to share price which went very well the first time and now he set himself up to do it again with Tesla. And what's interesting here is that with Pomp's BRR ticker he it's not just him, it's also the board of directors. And I think that at Tesla that's not the case. I'm still interested to see what are the targets like because it's if you're like hey, the stock moves 2%, I get $100 million. People aren't going to be excited about that. But if you design those equity comp packages appropriately, obviously it's totally a win win.
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Win. Saw a TechCrunch tweet six weeks ago that Meta is trying to ban Poke. He said he directly asked for help on Twitter. Got a lot of intros. Talked to the European Commission. EU officially opened an antitrust investigation today. X is unreal. He really.
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Is kind of met his worst nightmare today. Are you really that surprised that Martin Von Hagen.
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Is.
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Marvin. Marvin, sorry, sorry. Marvin Von Hagen is pulling the strings of the eu. Jake, Paul and the team over at Antifund have raised a new fund. 30 million.
- [26:28]
Almost. I almost said 300 million. I'm sure they'll. Sure they'll be there.
- [26:32]
B
Soon. Two to three more of these that will happen. I mean, this does. This does in some way. In some way mirror the Johnny I've Sam Altman video of. Like them getting coffee.
- [26:41]
A
Together. Have a wonderful evening and we will see you.
- [26:44]
B
Tomorrow. Thank.
- [26:45]
A
You. Take.
- [26:45]
B
Care. Good night.