TBPN Podcast Summary

Episode: Live From NYSE, The Gemini Win Scenario, OpenAI Monetizing With Ads | Diet TBPN
Hosts: John Coogan & Jordi Hays
Date: December 5, 2025
Theme:
Broadcasting live from the New York Stock Exchange, John and Jordi break down the latest in tech, AI, and finance news. Big headlines include their new partnership with the NYSE, the competitive AI landscape (with a central focus on Google’s Gemini vs. OpenAI), ads in ChatGPT and Gemini, space data centers, major company news, and quirky takes on tech-driven casino projects.

1. TBPN Partners with the New York Stock Exchange

Key Points:

• TBPN announces a formal partnership with NYSE for IPO coverage.
• Quoting Lynn Martin, NYSE President:

  “A really bright spot for 2025 has been getting to know these guys... This partnership underscores our commitment to providing the premier platform for companies that shape our future.” (00:20)

• The hosts reminisce about covering recent major IPOs (Figma, Klarna) at the NYSE, naming it their “second favorite place to do business.”

Tone: celebratory, bantering (“Match made in heaven… Not just saying that.” — 00:51)

2. Is the ‘Gemini Win’ Scenario Bearish for AI?

Key Points:

• Debate over a viral “hot take” that if Google’s Gemini “wins” the AI race, it would “ensure zero profitability for any other model” by keeping its model free until competitors “bleed out” and then monetizing a monopoly.

  “Gemini winning ensures zero profitability for any other model... Google will force any other player into an endless sea of red ink.” (01:20, paraphrasing Efficient Market Hype/Ross Hendricks)

• John disagrees with the absolute monopoly scenario:

  “I'm not convinced that there will be a monopoly in AI… we’re headed toward a duopoly at the very least.” (01:55)
  “I feel very good about Anthropic right now… Dario’s commentary yesterday at Dealbooks was fantastic. He literally said the word ‘yolo.’” (02:20)

• Jordi’s rebuttal focuses on Google’s cultural drive for high margins:

  “Google likes good margins. They grew up with the best margins... if it’s not going to monetize, all your investors start asking: is this going to structurally hurt your business?” (02:47)

• They reference Instagram Reels as an example where new features eventually monetize but can initially unsettle investors.

Gemini & OpenAI Pricing

• Both Gemini and OpenAI already monetize with paid plans; both offer student/intro tiers but charge otherwise (03:55).
• Google launches Workspace Studio—custom AI agents for G Suite, automating “daily grind” tasks (04:00).

3. Chips & AI Infrastructure: Lisa Su vs. Google TPU

Key Points:

• AMD CEO Lisa Su critiques Google’s TPU architecture at the UBS conference:

  “TPU… lacks the programmability, model flexibility and balanced training and inference capabilities that GPUs offer.” (04:33)

• The hosts note it echoes Nvidia’s public lines, adding:

  “You simply cannot know ahead of time what to hard code into an ASIC. That is the difference. If you’re Google, you kind of can, since you invented the transformer.” (06:43)

• Discussion about the broader need for flexible chips vs. specialized AI hardware; speculation over whether other players (OpenAI, AMD) might develop TPU-like chips.
• Lisa Su asserts:

  “Over the next five years GPUs should remain the clear majority of the market because we are still early in the cycle.” (06:04)

4. Superintelligence, Post-AGI, and AI Research Trends

Key Points:

• DeepMind’s Demis Hassabis is reportedly hiring for ‘post-AGI’ research. This is cast as the next step after AGI (“superintelligence researchers”).
• Quip:

  “There were AI researchers, then AI AGI researchers… now everyone’s banking on creating an AI that's really good at AI research.” (07:56)

• Jokes about the proliferation of AI subgenres: “pop, punk, post pop, trad punk... all of that has come to AI fully.” (08:30)

5. Ads in AI: OpenAI vs. Google’s Strategic Choices

Key Points:

• Reports swirl about OpenAI preparing to roll out ads in ChatGPT.
• The tech Twitterverse expresses widespread skepticism about tolerated ads.
• Discussion of “first-mover disadvantage”:

  “OpenAI should want Gemini to go first... I think that it’s very possible that Google might be like, no, we’ll let you do the honors.” (09:27-09:42)

• Jordi’s hypothetical:

  “If I’m Google, I wouldn’t run a single ad on Gemini Core. I’d run it at a pure loss until every competitor is forced to slap ads everywhere just to keep the lights on. It’s the bleed-it-out strategy.” (09:42)

• But the hosts note that in cloud, cloud wars never moved to zero-margin price wars—implication: AI might follow precedent.

Google’s Ad Infrastructure Advantage

• Google has vast ad infrastructure and customer base; very few businesses don’t advertise with Google already (10:19).
• Example: E-commerce brand Ridge.com sees a 12% conversion rate from ChatGPT referrals—extremely high intent, $5 per visitor (10:35-10:47).

6. OpenAI’s Burn Rate, Space Data Centers, and the Sam Altman Rocket Scoop

Key Points:

• Reviewing charts on company “burn rates”: OpenAI’s projected losses dwarf those of early Amazon and Uber.

  “Amazon… for its first eight years… sub $5 billion; Uber way higher; OpenAI burning way more.” (11:27)

• Scoop:

  “OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman has explored putting together funds to either acquire or partner with a rocket company... to compete against Elon Musk and SpaceX.” (12:21, quoting WSJ/ Berber Jin)

• Stoke Space was reportedly contacted by Altman about equity investments.
• They discuss the rationale: monopolistic prize in AI could justify massive spend.
• Space data centers as an idea:

  “At least it’s not increasing my power bill because it’s in space… not in my backyard and not using any water.” (18:48-19:28)

• Viral internet dunking on space data centers is “more about skepticism of feasibility than moral objections.” (19:41-20:04)

7. Quick Hits & Industry News

Meta Cuts Reality Labs/Metaverse Budget

• Meta to cut 30% of Reality Labs budget (VR, AR, Metaverse).

  “The idea that this is the end of Meta’s Metaverse dreams is probably wrong. I bet this will actually make them go faster.” (22:51)

• Excitement for Quest 4 VR headset.

Steve Cohen's Casino Megaproject

• New York Mets owner Steve Cohen awarded casino license for an $8B hotel/casino complex next to Citi Field:

  “Taking an under-monetized asset, 50 acres of parking lots, and trying to transform it into a year-round revenue engine.” (16:28)

Insider Trading & Prediction Markets

• Rumors of a Google insider trading on search prediction markets.

  “They are regulated by the CFTC... Trading is illegal.” (21:58-22:00)

• Discussion: Insiders may boost accuracy but raise regulatory/ethical issues.

Automotive/Energy Regulation

• Possible reversal of Biden-era vehicle emissions standards may revive the market for cheap, efficient trucks.

  “Americans have just voted with their wallets. They do not want a two-door truck.” (24:11)

Tech Company Leadership/Compensation

• Pump announces CEO, board equity comp at BRR will be tied to milestones.

  “Boards shouldn’t be making millions unless retail shareholders are also winning.” (24:31)

8. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “We are live from the New York Stock Exchange. The real fortress of finance, the capital of capital.” (00:01, Jordi)
• “Gemini winning ensures zero profitability for any other model... Google will force any other player into an endless sea of red ink...” (01:20, paraphrased hot take)
• “I feel very good about Anthropic right now. Right. Anthropic thought. Dario’s commentary yesterday at Dealbooks is fantastic. He literally said the word yolo.” (02:20, John)
• “Google likes good margins. They grew up with the best margins... it’s in their culture.” (02:47, Jordi)
• “Lisa Su gave her opinion on the Google TPU. She broke her silence. She fired back. Shots fired, shots fired.” (04:28, banter)
• “There is room for all types of accelerators. However, over the next five years GPU should remain the clear majority of the market.” (06:04, Lisa Su quote)
• “If I’m Google, I wouldn’t run a single ad on Gemini Core. I’d run it at a pure loss until every competitor is forced to slap ads everywhere just to keep the lights on.” (09:42, Jordi)
• “Ridge.com converts at 12% [from ChatGPT], the highest I’ve ever seen.” (10:35, Sean Frank via Jordi)
• “OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman has explored putting together funds to either acquire or partner with a rocket company.” (12:21, Journal scoop)
• “At least it’s not increasing my power bill because it’s in space, and it’s not an eyesore...” (18:48, John)
• “The idea that this is the end of Meta’s Metaverse dreams is probably wrong. I bet this will actually make them go faster.” (22:51, John)

9. Segment Timestamps (Selected)

• [00:01] — Live from NYSE, partnership announcement
• [01:12] — The “Gemini Win” scenario debate
• [03:55] — Monetization models for Gemini/OpenAI, Workspace Studio
• [04:28] — Lisa Su & Google TPU critique
• [06:04] — Forecast: GPU dominance in AI
• [07:56] — The rise of ‘post-AGI’ research; DeepMind’s next ambition
• [08:55] — Ads in ChatGPT and Gemini: Monetization wars
• [10:35] — ChatGPT’s impact on commerce conversion rates
• [11:27] — OpenAI’s burn rate compared to Amazon/Uber
• [12:21] — Sam Altman’s rocket company ambitions
• [16:28] — Steve Cohen’s $8B casino complex in NYC
• [22:51] — Meta’s Metaverse/Reality Labs budget cut
• [24:31] — Board/CEO equity compensation alignment (BRR)

10. Conclusion: Show’s Tone & Value

• The episode is informed, playful, and unafraid of hot takes or industry banter.
• It delivers a breezy tour of top-of-mind topics for tech insiders: the AI talent/compute arms race, business model brinksmanship, exuberant corporate ventures (space, casinos), regulatory intrigue, and evolving company leadership norms.

Best For:
Anyone seeking smart, fast, and occasionally irreverent takes on technology’s biggest moves and personalities—plus a real sense of how the financial and tech world’s cultures collide.