Tyler (2:05)

No, but it's actually the opposite. City Storage Systems. Great, great. Under, under the radar holding company to, you know, verticalize food delivery.

Sam (2:15)

Sure.

Tyler (2:15)

Picnic is kind of a front facing platform focused on meal delivery. The offer sounds too good to be true. Meals delivered from 50 plus restaurants with no tipping and no fees. They also bundle orders so a company can order from 10 or so different restaurants. Get it all ordered at the same time. He's got A bunch of customers already. Wells Fargo, Live Nation, EY, KPMG, PwC and a bunch more. And so we were talking yesterday about how broken the tipping experience is when you're tipping directly. It's a way to encourage great service by like tipping. If you're checking into a hotel and you're tipping, you know somebody on the way in, they're incentivized to make your stay great. Same thing, you know, valet tipping. On the way in, they're going to park your car right up at the front.

Jason (3:04)

So Travis said delivery app tipping isn't about feedback mechanisms. It's a tool for maximizing the price paid by consumers. Eaters are economically irrational with tip. For every $1 in tip they economically behave as if it 80 cents.

Sam (3:21)

This is just a hypothetical figure, but it's directionally true.

Jason (3:25)

Because you feel emotionally good about tipping, mentally you give it less. It feels less painful to part with those dollar purchase. If there's $10 in taxes and $10 in tip, you'll be like oh, I feel good about the $10 in tip that feels like $8 and the taxes that feels bad. Right. And it happens on the other side. So couriers are also economically irrational with tip for every one dol economically be they economically behave as if it were $1.20 again directional. And so you feel good when you're tipped and so you treat those dollars more as more valuable. And so this is a hack on the human psyche which apps must implement and maximize or miss out on economic surplus that their competitor will use to defeat them. And so even if you have, you know, your whole brand is built around.

Sam (4:18)

Our app doesn't tip.

Jason (4:19)

Remember this happened with Uber. If your competitor is using tips. If they implement t just be making more money than you because of this economic inefficiency that arises from the nature of the human psyche. I read this as adding tipping is inevitable. Adding tipping is inevitable. We're not doing it right now, but eventually someone will come to the market do it. We will have to in order to compete. Is that not the read here?

Tyler (4:47)

So the difference here is that I think that one picnic is like is already counter positioned right. So it's pricing thing, it's a flexibility standpoint. It's also counter positioning on like focusing on one key buyer. Obviously you know the doordashes. The Uber Eats have their kind of like corporate offerings. But I think like just creating a, creating a different and more transparent model makes a lot of sense. TK has been kind of like secretive about cloud kitchens, secretive about otter which is like the toaster or square competitor that he has. When I, when I hear like no fees, no tips, like, it just screams like, there's been so many attempts at food, food delivery and just like new restaurant concepts that have been venture backed and a lot of them haven't worked out right because it's just like, becomes unsustainable. I think Travis is basically, by focusing on a key customer type, trying to make it up with volume and then having this like vertical approach. I believe that he's somewhat of a masochist and that like going and trying to win in food delivery is just like the hardest arena. It's just like the most competitive space. It's low margin all the way down. I believe just given the domain expertise, I believe that he's, he has a real play here and a real strategy. And I think that, I think that already we were talking with the person on our team that handles like food ordering. He got on the phone with Picnic yesterday and he was like, this offering is way better than what we're seeing with, with the other delivery apps and wants to switch to it immediately. So if TK can make the model sustainable, I think it'll be quite competitive.

Jason (6:29)

Yeah, I mean you would, you would imagine that vertical integration should allow true lower prices, like true cost competitiveness.

Sam (6:37)

That's like an age old business adage.

Jason (6:40)

If you vertically integrate, you can undercut your competitors and just offer lower prices.

Sam (6:44)

Almost like, you know, buying Kirkland brand.

Jason (6:46)

At Costco is typically like, sort of like the canonical example of like heavy verticalization. I remember in the early days of Uber, like it was amazing because you didn't need to think about the tip. And so that mental load wasn't there. There was the star rating system and it felt like they're actually like the VCs might have been subsidizing it a little bit, but it felt, felt affordable on the, on the, on rider side and on the driver side. It felt like people were getting paid pretty well and everyone was sort of happy. But maybe the VCs weren't, but they wound up getting, you know, a stake in a $200 billion company. So, you know, I think it all worked out for everyone involved. But it seems like Travis is reflecting on this idea that tipping was inevitable to come to the Uber ecosystem. Is tipping going to come to the Waymo ecosystem? Is tipping going to come to this Picnic ecosystem, the Picnic product eventually?

Tyler (7:34)

I don't know. I just.

Jason (7:35)

Do you think Picnic will have tipping in 10 years?

Tyler (7:38)

I just view this more as Like a, as a, as a corporate service in its current positioning.

Sam (7:43)

True.

Tyler (7:44)

Than a consumer service. And when a consumer is buying food, if you're ordering food delivery, it is like, it is a luxury, right? Like food delivery has been extremely normalized. But if you, you know, rewind to 40 years ago and ask like, oh, how often do you get food delivery? Most people will be like, I never get food delivery. I just go pick it up myself. It is a luxury. But this is being positioned like, as a corporate offer. And I think that if Piknic can get just like deep relationships with a bunch of these different companies that have, you know, I listed off some of the logos before. If they can just become embedded in these companies and part of their workflows, I think they'll, they'll. It's possible to like make it up in volume.

Jason (8:25)

Truth Bomb from TK Tipping is a hack to maximize price. It's psychology. Consumers are willing to pay more in tips than they are willing to pay in fees or menu price.

Sam (8:35)

So a $16 burrito plus a $4 tip feels far cheaper to people than a $20 burrito. That has a no.

Tyler (8:42)

From a business standpoint, I don't, I don't know. I don't know if it's exactly the same thing. I feel like businesses like want to have like more predictable costs, not have that like variability. And like, okay, sometimes the fees are like this, sometimes the fees are like that. I think this will be a better consumer experience. A lot of companies, you know, will give like credits to their employees, which is like you get $20 of credits every day and then whatever, you're kind of like spending on top of that you have to eat. And so I think consumers will, could very likely like picnic more. So we'll see.

Jason (9:15)

This was one of the original like D2C evolutions that happened with a lot of like shopify merchants. I remember looking at, I think it was like Kylie Cosmetics. There was a trend for a while that was like, consumers want transparent pricing. Don't do all the crazy psychological hacks. So you'd be like, yeah, I'm just going to put it's 30 bucks and that's what it is. And it's free shipping and that tax and shipping is included. And it's just like what we say up front is feel feels really good, feels really good to say that. And then you go to like the high performing stores and all across the board it would be like 9.99. And then you go in and there's like $6, 42 cents added in taxes. And then you add shipping and it's.

Tyler (9:55)

Like a pop up and it's laddering one minute exactly.

Jason (9:58)

Flattering you up and just like keeping you on the real, reeling you in like a fish. Adding, adding fees, adding fees until you're like, okay, well now I'm like entered all my information and I'm ready to click the button. And so, yeah, okay, you added two more bucks.

Sam (10:11)

Whatever, I'll just deal with it.

Jason (10:12)

So these psychological HAC are just like somewhat inevitable. What is TK's drone strategy? What's his autonomous delivery strategy? Because he's vertically integrated at the kitchen level, he has the point of sale system, he has the sort of ordering front end. You can interact directly with him. He's cutting out several of the middlemen. But is he going to be a logical partner for Zipline? Is he going to be a logical partner for Coco and Starship and these robotics companies that are delivering food? People aren't ready for how much better food tastes when it arrives 5x faster. That's a hilarious take because like, in fact, I have tasted food right when it's made. Like, it's not, it's not like an entirely novel thing. But what he's pointing at here is that Zipline is getting food delivered in.

Sam (11:04)

Four minutes as opposed to cars that take 20 minutes.

Jason (11:07)

So hot food arrives hot, which is certainly a benefit, but it just does.

Sam (11:12)

Create more of like a, you know.

Jason (11:14)

Benchmark to the, to the actual restaurant.

Tyler (11:16)

I'm trying to find if Travis is an investor in Zipline. The Google AI overview says yes. Travis Kalanick is an investor in Uber. Gemini says, I could not find definitive evidence. That's okay.

Jason (11:30)

I mean, on the self driving side, his original vision at Uber, it felt very much like he needed to own that technology. He wanted to be not just a.

Sam (11:41)

Buyer of it from a different company.

Tyler (11:42)

I mean, right now if you look at city storage systems, you have cloud kitchens, which is making the food, you have otter, which is like the payments and ordering infrastructure. And then now you have Picnic, which is like the front end. Any type of delivery method actually fits into that system. I would imagine he'll either add a strategy, but potentially more likely he'll just integrate with a variety of drone delivery and then autonomous vehicle delivery and continue to use traditional labor.

Jason (12:14)

Nanobanana is remarkable. Look at this Golden Gate Bridge image.

Sam (12:17)

It generates the image and also all of the diagrams around it.

Tyler (12:21)

This is how Tyler sees the world.

Jason (12:23)

By the way, Sundar says you went bananas for nanobanana. Now meet Nanobanana Pro. It's state of the art for image generation editing with more advanced world knowledge.

Sam (12:32)

Text rendering precision plus controls. Built on Gemini 3.

Jason (12:36)

It's really good at complex infographics, which.

Sam (12:38)

Is awesome, much like how engineers see the world. That's very fun. Here's one where someone took a map, Google Maps screenshot and just turned it into an RPG style map.

Jason (12:51)

A San Francisco monster map. It really is that reasoning model. Like you can see the Golden Gate Bridge is there and what would be logical to have attacking the Golden Gate Bridge? A giant octopus. And then Alcatraz island is there and there's this sea monster next to it and everything kind of like nanobanana. Nailed the burger test. It's the first model to truly do this perfectly. The prompt is remove the ingredients, leave.

Sam (13:16)

Just the top button and the bottom.

Jason (13:17)

Button in the exact same place and.

Sam (13:19)

Render the rest of the image. Here's my favorite use case so far.

Jason (13:22)

Take papers or really long articles and turn them into a detailed whiteboard photo. It's basically the greatest compression algorithm in human history. When we got ChatGPT, it was like, oh wow, you can take bullet points and you can expand it into an assay and then you can take an assay and expand it down to bul points. And I imagine that people are going to be sending these and then they're not going to be reading them and then they're going to be like actually.

Tyler (13:44)

Like turn this diagram, turn this diagram and then summarize it.

Jason (13:49)

Nvidia saw its shadow.

Sam (13:51)

Six more months of bull markets as high yield, Harry. Although who knows. The market is tanking still. The Nasdaq is down 2.1% now and Bitcoin is down at $86,000.5% today. Significant sell off.

Tyler (14:05)

Let's check in on the sailor himself. Also down 5% at least he's tracking the underlying asset.

Sam (14:13)

Meltem says Nvidia earnings call first. 60 seconds. We have line of sight to half.

Jason (14:18)

A trillion in revenue in 2026.

Sam (14:20)

The bubble hasn't even started yet.

Jason (14:22)

Let's go.

Tyler (14:23)

Michael Burry says every company listed below has suspicious revenue recognition. The actual chart with all the give and take deals would be unreadable. The future will regard this a picture of fraud, not a flywheel. True end damage is ridiculous demand. True end demand is ridiculously small. Almost all customers are funded by their dealers. If you can name OpenAI's auditor in one hour, you win some pride.

Jason (14:48)

What does he mean? True end demand is ridiculously small. It's just not true. There are Tons of companies that are paying for subscriptions for all sorts of AI products.

Sam (14:59)

I don't know.

Tyler (14:59)

He's a D cell with a crazy P doom.

Sam (15:02)

He's a D cell with a zombie 0p doom. I guess.

Tyler (15:06)

Yes. If you're looking at the amount of investment happening now in comparison to the demand.

Jason (15:12)

Yeah.

Tyler (15:12)

And you don't believe that the products will get better at all.

Jason (15:14)

Yeah. If you don't believe that, it just flips so much. Like there was a moment where it was like, wow, like demand for this new thing went from zero to $10 billion in just a few years. This is remarkable. And then people were like, let's invest a trillion dollars in that. And it's like, okay, well, at that price, it's like. It's actually kind of crazy. I don't know. It's a lot to deal with.

Sam (15:35)

Yeah.

Tyler (15:35)

But if you. About any industry on Earth.

Jason (15:37)

Yeah, yeah.

Tyler (15:38)

Do we think every industry on earth will be using 50 to 100 times more tokens within 5 years? 10 years? Strap. You don't even have to be that much of a.

Jason (15:49)

No.

Tyler (15:50)

Of a. Of a.

Sam (15:51)

Of a perma. Bull.

Tyler (15:52)

Of a perma bull to believe that.

Jason (15:54)

Yeah.

Tyler (15:55)

In fact, it's like hard.

Sam (15:56)

Hard Tyler. Tyler's permabulling.

Jason (15:59)

Of course, that is your contention. You're a first year AI skeptic. You just finished reading Andrew Ross Sorkin's 1929 and now you think you're reliving the roaring twenties with. You will cling to that until next month when you hear Jim Chanos talk about unsustainable capex. And then you will start parroting that the entire AI ecosystem is about to collapse under the weight of its own spending. That will last until someone posts a core weave CDS chart. And you'll repeat that too, without realizing that it was just dealers hedging credit portfolios, not some cosmic warning sign. Then you'll probably start lecturing people about Global Crossing because you heard someone say 1999 fiber bubble and it made you feel informed. Meanwhile, Nvidia just printed one of the biggest sequential growth quarters the sector has ever seen and guided higher again. The workloads are real, the demand is real, and the capex is already contractually locked. None of that came from a crash narrative paperback or a chain o soundbite. But sure, keep borrowing other people's takes and pretending they're your own. One day you might look at the actual numbers and realize this is not a bubble. It is the early stage of the largest infrastructure buildout in. In decades.

Tyler (17:11)

It's very cool. So this is kind of a combination of the R2D2 form factor with a humanoid.

Jason (17:16)

Yes. Look at that. Picking up two wine glasses is insane.

Tyler (17:20)

I love the way it just bounces around.

Jason (17:23)

So this is sped up presumably?

Tyler (17:24)

Yes. I think it's at like a. I think it's at like a 10x speed.

Jason (17:27)

Something about the lighting here makes it look CGI to me. I know it's not, but it looks CGI.

Sam (17:33)

Ish.

Jason (17:36)

I. I'm fascinated. So many questions. Says it's in autonomous mode.

Tyler (17:41)

Sunday has motion.

Jason (17:43)

Sunday has motion. I think that the. I think that the design here is fantastic. I will have to debate it and you have to tell me what you think. But definitely beating the like creepy uncanny valley in my opinion doesn't feel like, oh, that thing is about to pick up a knife. At least to me.

Sam (18:03)

I, I'm pretty, I'm pretty into this.

Jason (18:05)

Design and I think the Internet was.

Sam (18:07)

As well since it got over a million views and over 3000 likes.

Jason (18:14)

And Sholto Douglas over at Anthropic says this is insanely, insanely impressive. And I agree it is.

Tyler (18:20)

I'm excited to ask Tony how much they had to spend to get to this point.

Sam (18:26)

That would be interesting because I think.

Tyler (18:27)

I'm assuming it will be quite a bit less than many of the other players that are. Are kind of competing here.

Jason (18:34)

The little telescoping pole is very cool.

Tyler (18:37)

Taylor says it's the hat. Non threatening lid. I agree. Just throw a cool hat.

Jason (18:43)

The hat looks. Yeah. So Scott, I think the hat does look kind of dumb. But that's like kind of. Okay. I'd rather it look dumb than scary.

Sam (18:52)

Or menacing or weird.

Tyler (18:55)

You know like think about how scary like some of these humanoid robots would be to a 1 year old.

Sam (19:01)

Like Wall E looks kindly dumb.

Jason (19:02)

R2D2 looks kind of dumb, but it's still like a friendly. You know, you don't want it to.

Tyler (19:06)

Be like the optimus or figure would be like traumatizing to a one year old.

Jason (19:12)

Yeah. Yeah.

Sam (19:12)

For sure.

Jason (19:13)

SAM3 video tracking is so good. Yesterday collect data.

Sam (19:17)

Train custom object detector. Use tracker to estimate object motion. Days now track anything with a text prompt in seconds.

Jason (19:25)

That's meta. Oh, this is segment anything.

Tyler (19:27)

Yeah.

Jason (19:28)

Oh, okay. Okay.

Sam (19:29)

Okay.

Guest Expert (19:29)

Got it.

Jason (19:29)

Okay. That's very exciting.

Sam (19:31)

You can track all of our gong hits potentially for velocity and understand velocity.

Jason (19:37)

Relative to the audio volume. We had a lot understand how the production team is doing their job to lower the levels for you.

Tyler (19:47)

Grock says Elon is more fit than LeBron and would win a fight against Mike Tyson.

Sam (19:52)

Fact check.

Jason (19:52)

True. You're absolutely right.

Tyler (19:54)

I'm gonna ask Grok if this is true.

Jason (19:56)

I wonder how much of this is like in the pre prom or just in the X data set. Elon's obviously there's just an incredible amount of Elon fans in the X ecosystem still, since a lot of people that.

Sam (20:11)

Weren'T Elon fans left.

Jason (20:12)

Even the Tesla bulls don't glaze to this level usually. So I don't know where this would come from. This must have been in the pre prompt or something.

Tyler (20:22)

Many people are doing this. I mean you went in Sora and you said depict me as a bodybuilder.

Jason (20:26)

Yes, that's true.

Tyler (20:27)

And then somebody tried to hack it to give you small legs.

Sam (20:30)

They did successfully prompt engineer me. They did get me Prescient New Yorker cartoon that saw prediction markets coming more than half a century.

Tyler (20:41)

Wow. 6-27-19.

Jason (20:43)

You can't see this.

Sam (20:44)

It's the arrivals at an airport and there's flights that are arriving from Chicago, Detroit, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh. They depart at 8am they arrive at 10:20am and then there's odds listed there because of course you'll want to bet on when the plane lands. Now you can maybe you're close to being able to with the with the prediction markets on their relentless march to take over the world, we have to talk about group chats in ChatGPT. We mentioned this earlier. It's official. They're rolling out globally. There was a successful pilot with early testers. Group chats will now be available for all logged in users on ChatGPT Free Go plus and Propens.

Jason (21:28)

I didn't know there's a ChatGPT Go plan.

Tyler (21:30)

That was the India plan.

Jason (21:32)

Okay, that's interesting.

Sam (21:33)

And then also I mean it just says of course it's rolling out to everyone because this one doesn't set the GPUs on fire. This is good old fashioned stuff the text in the database and reduce churn in your product. So makes a ton of sense. Very. You know we'll have to test this out and see if it's actually that useful.

Tyler (22:00)

But yeah, I think this, I mean this is the kind of thing that can help OpenAI build more of a moat outside of a brand and just general distribution mode.

Sam (22:11)

ChatGPT is turning into a social app. Sam pulled it off before Zuck could make the Meta AI app good enough to compete with ChatGPT says Yujin, Jin, Axe and Grok could have a real chance to do it too. But it's rough watching DMs and chat keep breaking. CNBC said Meta plans to release a standalone Meta AI app in an effort to compete with OpenAI's ChatGPT, and Sam Altman said, okay, fine, maybe we'll do a social app.

Jason (22:36)

And he did.

Sam (22:36)

He did Sora and now he's adding social features to ChatGPT Core.

Jason (22:41)

Did you see this? That we don't understand How Ice is why Ice is slippery I don't know.

Sam (22:46)

If this is fully confirmed at this point, But Massimo Rainmaker 1973 shares new research misspelled that New research shows ice is slippery because of electrical charges, not pressure and friction. For almost 200 years, the prevailing explanation for ice's slipperiness was that friction or pressure from a skate boot or tire melted a microscopic film of water on the surface, creating a lubricating layer. A new study from Saarland University has overturned that long standing idea. Boris Power here says, who's the head of applied research at OpenAI says, wow, this is one of the bigger firm beliefs I held that got overturned. I really, this is the one I knew that the world is round. The sun rises in the east and it sets in the west. And I know that the reason ice is slippery is when you get a microscopic layer of water, but it is a good point. If it's actually about electrical charges, then it begs the question which he's asking, I wonder how long until we get non slip shoes for ice.

Tyler (23:54)

Ice is brilliantly humbling. You know, you think you're walking, you're confident, you know, you're like I'm handling this ice. And then you just suddenly it feels like you got a banana under your foot.

Sam (24:05)

One of my friends was worried about getting canceled because the first tweet he ever posted, like decades ago when he first got on Twitter, was I just slipped on some ice hashtag fice like.

Jason (24:19)

F U C K I C E. And he was like, am I being.

Sam (24:23)

Like rude or uncouth? Should I Delete that post?

Tyler (24:26)

12 Lessons from our interview on Dialectic, his podcast. I don't think we'd ever written down a lot of these ideas I think we should have talked about.

Jason (24:37)

We were talking about the need for.

Sam (24:38)

Principles and the need for some sort of culture.

Tyler (24:43)

But that was more like operating principles within the company. Yeah, some of these are relevant, but.

Jason (24:49)

Yeah, this is more about the style of content. Never forget Satya Nadella in 1993 as.

Sam (24:54)

A Microsoft Technical Marketing manager showing how Excel works. We can play this clip.

Guest Expert (25:00)

As you can see, the most important architectural requirement for this piece is to be able to integrate data which exists on a host or a mainframe right into Excel, Excel being our front end tool and the AS 400 in our case being the data repository. So what I'm going to do now is exit out of this environment and show you how we can better integrate this data into Excel. And I'll go ahead and call in questions.

Jason (25:28)

Now he's doing a live stream. Basically it's on tv.

Guest Expert (25:32)

But at this point what it did was it turned to the Ms. Query, went ahead and talked to the DRDA driver and went and connected to the mainframe, brought down the relevant data and populated my sheet here with the relevant data going to using Windows NTSNA server, connecting to the database.

Jason (25:50)

It sounds like agentic AI. Sounds like a workflow, super intelligence for numbers. This guy's been automating workflows since day one. Now he says he has less hair but the Same love for XL. And he posted a photo making sheet happen since 1985.

Sam (26:09)

He's looking great. He's on top of the world.

Jason (26:11)

We appreciate you all and we will see you tomorrow.

Tyler (26:13)

Love you.

Sam (26:13)

Goodbye.

Tyler (26:14)

Cheers.