TBPN Podcast Summary
Episode: OpenAI Sets Sights on $750B Valuation, Warner Brothers Questions Paramount’s Funding, The 2025 Model Wars In Review
Hosts: John Coogan & Jordi Hays
Date: December 19, 2025
Episode Overview
This episode of TBPN’s “Diet TBPN” delivers a sharp, humorous, and wide-ranging conversation around the latest moves in tech, finance, and media. John, Jordi, and Tyler dissect OpenAI's staggering $750B valuation rumors, Warner Brothers’ skepticism of Paramount’s funding, a review of the frenetic 2025 AI “model wars,” and jaw-dropping media-business-fusion headlines, with their distinct mix of insight and irreverence.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. OpenAI’s $750B Valuation & Fundraising Climate
[01:18-04:12]
- OpenAI is reportedly in early talks to raise at a $750B valuation—up from $500B just months ago.
- Jordi: “Early talks are... you gotta start somewhere about raising tens of billions of dollars or even 100 billion.” [01:28]
- Discussion on the disparity between public market skepticism and private investor enthusiasm: “Essentially, both can’t be right.” [01:46]
- Private investors bullish; public AI-exposed stocks being ‘crushed’.
- John: “It does feel like OpenAI is at a bit of a...trough of disillusionment potentially going into plateau of productivity.” [02:42]
- Sense among the hosts that narratives have bottomed, and we’re entering a reset phase: “Like we’re finding a bottom. Like we’re finding the footing of like, okay, reset…” [03:26]
- Broader implication: “A couple months ago it was like, it’s Enron. It’s going to blow up. It's a zero. ... And it does feel like we're turning the corner on that.” [04:01]
2. Big Media Moves: Paramount’s Bid for Warner Brothers and Trust Shenanigans
[04:28-14:24]
- Photo-opp at Warner Bros lot: strategic signaling between Warner and Netflix execs.
- “They went out deliberately to, to just strut and just flax. ... This is a sign of strength.” [04:28-04:56]
- Deep dive into the "revocable trust" issue at the heart of Paramount/Warner negotiations.
- Matt Levine’s post explained: asset ownership, revocable vs. irrevocable trusts, and the potential for M&A chaos if trust assets are removed (“Yoink. He whispers to himself. Oops, nevermind.”) [07:14]
- Takeaway: use of trusts introduces deal risk, and Warner rebuffed the Paramount bid partly for these reasons:
- “This seems extremely fixable. Have Larry Ellison sign the commitments personally.” [11:41]
- “The real trick is obviously, create a revocable trust and name it the irrevocable tricks.” [11:47]
- VC, financing, and M&A parallels: Discussion on how these high-wire financial commitments translate to regular startup financing rounds and investor psychology (“Ideally every investor ... is yes, I’m good regardless...” [13:51]).
3. IPO Market Heating Up
[14:24-16:08]
- Medline’s $6.3B IPO: signal for a blockbuster IPO year ahead.
- “Massive offering. It's the biggest IPO since Rivian ...” [15:15]
- Anticipated public debuts: SpaceX, Anthropic, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, OpenAI, and “tech darlings at Figma scale” [15:55]
- Decacorns seen as increasingly “comfortable going out” if their financial engine is humming.
4. 2025 AI Model Wars — Timeline and Impact
[16:08-18:52]
- Rapid-fire rundown of major model releases (GPT-5, Sora 2, Claude Sonnet 4.5, Meta Ray Bans, etc.):
- “What a year. Just in terms of model releases…” [16:13]
- Pushback on ‘AI is stagnating’ narrative:
- Tyler: “I'm telling you, there's no AI winter.” [18:28]
- John: “People want AI to stagnate so bad... and it's not happening, bro. The models are getting better.” [18:44]
- “Everyone without bags is saying it's stagnating.” [18:52]
- Age of research vs. AI winter: Hosts agree the field is vibrant despite skepticism, with significant advances continuing apace.
5. Deal-Making Mania: Trump’s Tech Gambits
[19:04-23:27]
- Trump Media (DJT) merges with nuclear fusion company Tay Technologies in $6B deal.
- “Truth Social parent to merge with nuclear fusion firm in a $6 billion deal ... I thought I was dreaming.” [20:14]
- Riff on Trump Media’s pivots: social, crypto, now fusion—“fourth act.” [20:39]
- Trump Media’s largest stake is held in trust, managed by Don Jr—a nod to today’s “trust-maxxing.” [20:55]
- Comparison to Amazon’s energy and data infrastructure.
- Jordi: “People are going to talk trash about this... but you look at what Amazon’s doing, building massive data centers. ... Fusion—theoretically cleaner. Who would have thought...?” [21:08]
- Recall to Jimmy Carter’s peanut farm divestment and the bar for avoiding any pretense of impropriety:
- “[Jimmy Carter] was not in big oil or railroad baron ... He had very little conflict of interest and he reduced it even further. That's always been a sign of what great looks like.” [22:14]
6. AI Investment Flow & the ‘Slow Takeoff’
[23:39-25:00]
- Staggering investments in AI—nearly $1 trillion so far.
- “Look at this graph ... This is such an interesting way to visualize the flow of money.” [23:39]
- Joke on the resilience and impact of past tech bubbles: “Can’t wait for this AI bubble to pop so we can all go back to normal. Just like how the Internet completely disappeared after the dot com bubble popped.” [24:13]
- Debate over fast vs. slow takeoff in AI adoption:
- Tyler: “This time different.” [24:56]
- “Because this time we have the Internet, so it’s way faster to do distribution.” [24:57]
7. Tech & Culture Quick Hits
[25:12-32:44]
- Vision Pro “balloon hack”: “This is innovation. This is crazy innovation.” [25:18]
- China’s inventive spirit: “People say the Chinese can only copy... That’s not true.” [25:36]
- Anduril Capital “scam” drama: Palmer Luckey publicly refutes Alpha Ton Capital’s announced investment in Anduril as being misleading, calling it out as unauthorized.
- “Alpha Ton is lying. This is not true. Public heads up to CEO Brittany Kaiser...” [27:48]
- “It feels very scammy... Palmer is sort of calling it a scam, but it is a public company, I guess.” [27:56]
- Cultural slang—‘chewbai’: “This is the new word you gotta learn. ... when something is both chopped and also spiritually Dubai.” [28:24]
- CBS, network TV, and why Ellison was interested in its “buzz” factor. [30:31]
- Tim Sweeney vs. Apple, Fortnite iOS ban in Japan: “Tim Sweeney... is really Apple’s worst nightmare.” [31:14]
- 3D real estate platform Arcway—future of homebuying tours. [31:34]
8. Final News: U.S. Space Ambitions & Trump’s Vision
[32:26-33:44]
- Executive Orders unveiled: U.S. aims for permanent lunar outpost by 2030 and Mars journey prep.
- Jokes about Trump’s space ambitions:
- “I feel like Trump would want to be the first president to go to space.” [33:18]
- “That does feel like something he would want to do—rename the moon Trump Moon... that’s Planet Trump.” [33:23]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- On AI’s public/private markets split:
- “Public markets are crushing OpenAI exposed stocks, while private investors with visibility into OpenAI’s metrics and internal numbers are piling in. Essentially, both can’t be right.” (Jordi, 01:46)
- On OpenAI’s narrative turnaround:
- “A couple months ago it was like, it’s Enron. It’s going to blow up. … And it does feel like we're turning the corner on that.” (John, 04:01)
- On the Paramount/Warner trust conundrum:
- “Yoink. He whispers to himself. Oops, Nevermind.” (Matt Levine, quoted by John, 07:14)
- On Trump as a tech founder:
- “You can’t say that… He's never merged with a nuclear fusion company backed by Chevron, Google, and Goldman Sachs.” (Jordi & John, 23:27)
- On AI investment bubbles:
- “Can’t wait for this AI bubble to pop so we can all go back to normal. Just like how the Internet completely disappeared after the dot com bubble popped. It’s another bullish take for AI—it’s not going anywhere.” (John, 24:13)
- On rapid AI progress despite skepticism:
- “People want AI to stagnate so bad... and it's not happening, bro. The models are getting better.” (John, 18:44)
Important Segment Timestamps
- OpenAI $750B Valuation & Market Sentiment — 01:18–04:12
- Paramount/Warner, Trusts, Matt Levine’s Analysis — 04:28–14:24
- IPO Market & Model Wars Recap — 14:24–18:52
- Trump Media’s Fusion Merger — 19:04–23:27
- AI Bubble & ‘Slow Takeoff’ Discussion — 23:39–25:00
- Anduril "Scam" Controversy, ‘Chewbai’ Slang — 27:48–29:04
- CBS, Tim Sweeney/Apple, Arcway Real Estate — 30:31–31:54
- Space Executive Order & Trump Space Jokes — 32:26–33:44
Tone, Style, and Takeaways
The hosts maintain a wry, rapid-fire, and often self-aware tone, delighting in both deep finance-legal weeds and high-level media takeaways. There’s equal parts skepticism, tech optimism, and playful banter. Whether critiquing billion-dollar deal structures, pondering cultural slang, or riffing on AI futures, the commentary offers sharp observations that are immediately accessible—even for those new to the week’s headlines.
Perfect for anyone wanting to stay current on big tech and media moves with a heavy dose of humor and irreverence.