TBPN: SpaceX Financials, Does AI Increase Unemployment or Leisure, Chimp Civil War | Diet TBPN
April 10, 2026
Hosts: John Coogan & Jordi Hays (A & B), with third guest/voice (C)
— Episode Overview
This episode of Diet TBPN covers a range of topics across technology, economics, science, and business. The hosts analyze leaked SpaceX/XAI financials and discuss the implications of massive AI spending, shift to a lively debate over whether AI advancements will increase unemployment or expand leisure time, and then pivot to unexpected territory—chimpanzee civil war as reported by The Wall Street Journal. The show wraps with an in-depth discussion on the unique business model and enduring mystique of Ferrari, drawing from a recent article co-authored by the Acquired podcast hosts.

1. Artemis II Mission Splashdown & SpaceX/XAI Financials

NASA’s Artemis II Splashdown

• [00:02 – 01:15]
  • Artemis II returns four astronauts from lunar orbit, first such mission in over 50 years.
  • "It's 13 minutes of things that have to go right," says NASA about re-entry and splashdown (A, 00:10).
  • Tracking info: Splashdown scheduled for April 10, 2026 at 5:07pm PT off San Diego.

SpaceX Financials Revealed

• [01:15 – 03:20]
  • Recent leaks: SpaceX posted a nearly $5B loss last year, partly due to acquiring and integrating XAI.
  • Despite loss, SpaceX revenue reached $18.5B.
  • "Tesla spent heavily on chips and data centers to power XAI... capital expenditures... nearing $13B. That was 50% more capital spending than the rocket and satellite divisions combined." (A, 02:48)
  • Capex for AI/data centers now rivals or exceeds hardware-heavy divisions.
• [03:20 – 07:35]
  • "Everyone was expecting this. SpaceX—very profitable company—acquires a very unprofitable company combined, but new opportunity." (B, 01:55)
  • Discussion of vertical integration: proven businesses bankroll experimental, capital-hungry innovation.
  • EBITDA for core SpaceX businesses (rocket launches + Starlink) at ~$8B (2025); overall company (inc. AI) at $6.5B.
  • Depreciation largest expense; other significant costs: stock-based compensation and interest.
  • “There’s still way more demand than supply just in the launch market broadly... Elon and the rest... can’t make rockets fast enough.” (A, 04:17)
  • Upcoming IPO: SpaceX merging with XAI, aiming to go public in June 2026.

Insightful Quotes:

• “Investors who participate in the IPO will essentially be financing Musk's unproven AI ambitions in order to get a piece of high performing commercial space and telecom firm.” (A, 02:18)
• “It is crazy how quickly you can spend a lot of money on a data center... you'd think a satellite manufacturing facility or a rocket manufacturing facility would be the most expensive thing, but it is in fact not.” (A, 02:52)

2. AI, Unemployment, and the Future of Work

Discussion Sparked by Alex Tabarrok’s Blog

• [07:44 – 13:05]
  • Tabarrok frames the AI/work debate rhetorically:
    “Imagine I told you that AI was going to create a 40% unemployment rate. Sounds bad, right? …Now imagine I told you that AI was going to create a three day work week. That sounds great, right? ...to a first approximation, these are the same thing.” (A, paraphrased, 08:08–08:48)
  • Main idea: Distribution of hours (not the fact of joblessness per se) shapes social effect.

Historical Context

• “Between 1870 and today, hours of work in the United States fell by about 40% from nearly 3000 hours per year to about 1800 hours. Hours fell, but employment did not increase.” (A, 09:32)
• “In 1870, about 30% of the person's entire life was spent working... Today it’s closer to about 10%.” (A, 09:50)

Debate & Nuance

• C: “Doesn’t this still depend on how many days you have in a week? ...I have more days in my day, right?” (C, 11:10)
  (Light banter about time management/hustle culture follows.)
• “We have already sustained a massive increase in leisure. There’s no reason we cannot do it again.” (A recounting Tabarrok’s argument, 11:53)
• Hosts acknowledge real risks of distributional harm (“Rust belt cities and deaths of despair”), suggesting that technological progress rarely distributes benefits evenly.

Notable Quotes:

• “The difference between Catastrophe and Wonderland boils down to distribution.” (A, paraphrased, 09:05)
• “It might require government intervention... but it certainly seems possible.” (A, 12:00)
• “Schumpeter’s creative destruction still involves destruction and so people are going back and forth on this.” (A, 12:40)

Fact Check Interlude

• “The most commonly cited peak US unemployment rate during the Great Depression was 24.9%.” (B, 13:05)

3. Chimpanzee Civil War in Uganda

WSJ Story Discussion

• [13:13 – 18:23]
  • Coverage of a rare, deadly civil war among two splinter groups of chimps in Uganda’s Kibale National Park, based on a 10-year study.
  • "A chimp group's success may have led to its violent downfall, a new study suggests." (A, 13:35)
  • Explanation: Once cohesive group (200 chimps) fractured over three years due to deaths (disease) and dominance struggles.
  • "We've known for a long time that chimpanzees will attack and kill their neighbors... it turns out they will do this even when those neighbors are former friends and allies." (Mitani, quoted by A, 14:09)
  • Escalated to lethal raids, border formation, and targeted killings—over 24 confirmed deaths.

Ethics of Observation

• "At any point did they think like, hey, let's break it up. I don't know, is the ethical thing to do to let them continue to fight?" (B, 16:34)
• "For a lot of these studies, observation, you want to be hands off and not putting your finger on the scale, I guess." (A, 17:08)

Metaphors & Social Science

• B references Milgram and social experiments ("Stanley Milgram prison experiment vibes", 17:18)
• C introduces René Girard's mimetic rivalry: “They’re exactly like each other and you gotta fight it out until you have the scapegoat.” (C, 17:26)

Dunbar’s Number in Context

• C: “This does make sense that it got too big... you have this idea of, like, Dunbar’s number. So you have 150 people, the group gets above 150...” (C, 18:23)
• A: “Would Dunbar’s number be the same for chimpanzees as humans? I wonder if anyone’s ever studied that.” (A, 18:37)

4. Tribute to Jane Goodall

• [18:46 – 20:00]
  • Brief biography and legacy of Jane Goodall, who passed away in 2025.
  • “The chimps had accepted me and gradually I was able to penetrate further and further into a magic world that no human had ever explored before. The World of the wild Chimpanzees.” (A, quoting Goodall, 19:37)

5. Ferrari: Brand, Business, and the Power of Scarcity

Acquired Podcast Article Discussion

• [20:01 – 25:59]
  • Wall Street Journal piece by “Ben Gilbert and David Rosenthal... about why Ferrari is unlike any other luxury brand.” (B, 20:04)
  • Ferrari’s deliberate scarcity, emotional connection, and racing heritage as keys to its enduring value.
  • “No company has a higher ratio of people who know about its products to people who actually own those products. Far from cheapening the brand, Ferrari’s rabid base of super fans only enhances the brand’s appeal.” (A, 20:54)
  • Context: Ferrari’s lifetime sales are only 330,000 cars; Ford sold 2.2 million in the US last year alone.
  • Unique blend: “Like Hermes smashed together with Manchester United, other luxury brands manufacture desire through scarcity. Other sports teams benefit from shared emotional attachments. Ferrari does both.” (A, 24:11)
  • History: Crisis and turnaround post-Enzo Ferrari. Production slashed, exclusivity restored, profitability returned.

Host Take

• B opines that Ferrari is risking “making too many cars... even the F80, the hardcore fans... nobody’s that excited about it. I just think it very much feels like they’ve lost their way.” (B, 25:26)

6. Notable Quotes Recap

On AI & Work:

• “The difference between Catastrophe and Wonderland boils down to distribution.” (A, 09:05–09:32)
• “We have already sustained a massive increase in leisure. There’s no reason we cannot do it again.” (A, 11:53)

On Chimpanzee Behavior & Human Parallels:

• “Put any 200 humans together and the same thing will happen, and you only need 20 humans.” (B, 17:08)
• “I think it’s very Girardian... you gotta fight it out until you have the scapegoat.” (C, 17:26)

On Ferrari’s Branding:

• “No company has a higher ratio of people who know about its products to people who actually own those products.” (A, 20:54)
• “Other luxury brands manufacture desire through scarcity. Other sports teams benefit from shared emotional attachments. Ferrari does both.” (A, 24:11)

7. Timestamps of Key Segments

• [00:02] Artemis II Splashdown + SpaceX Financials
• [03:41] SpaceX Launch/Starlink Demand & IPO Discussion
• [07:44] AI & Unemployment Debate
• [13:13] Chimpanzee Civil War: Social Science, Observation Ethics
• [18:23] Dunbar’s Number & Jane Goodall’s Legacy
• [20:01] Ferrari: Scarcity, Fandom, & Business Model

Tone & Closing
The episode balances rigorous tech/finance analysis with playful, fast-moving banter typical of Silicon Valley podcasting. The hosts toggle easily between numbers, cultural references, and out-of-left-field science stories, making even dense topics feel lively.
“Well, folks, it’s been a fun week.” (B, 25:58)