SpaceX IPO Gigastream

Summary

TBPN Podcast Summary
Episode: SpaceX IPO Gigastream
June 12, 2026
Hosts: John Coogan & Jordi Hays

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Episode Overview

This explosive episode of TBPN is dedicated to breaking down the unprecedented SpaceX IPO, which debuted at $135/share and quickly surged, valuing the company at $2.28 trillion. Amid real-time chart watching, John, Jordi, and guest Tyler discuss the implications for tech, venture capital, and public markets. The hosts also spotlight SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell’s journey and reflect on historic returns in tech IPOs, viral startup drama, and cultural moments. The conversation is rapid-fire, irreverent, and loaded with inside tech jokes and actionable insights for founders, investors, and tech enthusiasts.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. SpaceX IPO: Historic, Massive, and Smooth

• Opening segment: The SpaceX IPO priced at $135, opened at $150, and rapidly reached highs of $172/share, with a market cap of $2.28 trillion. The hosts marvel at the scale and stability, noting this is possibly the most successful IPO ever.
• John (00:45): "It's hard not to look at this as a success. If we're in 10, 20, 30% range for something this big, that just feels like everything came together properly."
• The hosts and Tyler place private bets on IPO performance; Tyler ultimately wins with the closest prediction (61:32). Winner’s prize: the right to read an additional ramp.com ad.
• Notable: Most allocations dramatically oversubscribed—many retail traders received just a single share (50:20).

2. Gwynne Shotwell: SpaceX’s Steady Hand

• Clip played from Gwynne Shotwell at the NASDAQ (07:29–11:21): She emphasizes SpaceX’s culture of persevering through skepticism and highlights major milestones, such as reusability, the Starlink rollout, and the xAI acquisition.
  • Shotwell: "We have a history of making history. We did open this morning in a rather exciting way—launched Falcon 9, launched Starlink satellites to orbit."
  • Reflects on her own risk-taking (12:30): "What I recognized at that moment was that it was the trying part that was the most important. Try that risky thing. Be a part of something exciting."
• Discussion of Shotwell’s “residual capability” philosophy, building capacity ahead of demand (14:20), and her unique superstitious Scotland-notes-in-shoes launch ritual (18:01).
• Financial note: Despite an early, critical role, Shotwell owns less than 1% of SpaceX stock, due to years of dilution, but is now a billionaire (16:55).

3. Valuation Insanity—and The ‘Elon Premium’

• Media reactions are covered, especially from the Financial Times (30:10–34:43). The FT’s Stuart Kirk opines that traditional metrics don’t fit SpaceX: “Terrestrial valuations don't apply when it comes to Elon Musk.”
• Jordi (34:43): "It's a valuation that only one man on earth can achieve."
• The team compares historical IPO multiples and draws parallels to Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, emphasizing that SpaceX launches as a mega-cap, not as a scrappy disruptor (44:06).
• Founders Fund’s early SpaceX investment ($20M at $200M valuation) is cited as possibly the greatest VC return ever, rivaling Masa Son’s Alibaba win (36:49–41:44).

4. Retail & Venture Allocation Drama

• Multiple stories highlight how demand for IPO shares vastly outpaced allocations. Even team members with large asks were "one-share wonders" (50:20–50:32).
• Jordi (51:06): “I got offered like a 50 million dollar allocation. Obviously, wasn’t gonna take that down myself… Turns out there was a lot more demand than supply.”

5. Bear/Bull Cases, Chartology, and Meme Markets

• The hosts entertain “head and shoulders,” “camel,” and “binturong” technical chart memes, mocking apophenic retail trading (52:36–53:25).
• They project the usual IPO pattern: short-term pop, years of volatility, eventual growth (“to the moon”). Strong emphasis on how retail culture now shapes market narratives.

6. Cultural & VC Reflections: Are Tech Billionaires Just ‘Ordinary Guys’?

• Founders Fund’s post (“It is possible for ordinary people to choose to be extraordinary”) is tongue-in-cheek debated.
  • Jordi: “At no point in his life would you have met [Elon Musk] and thought, yeah, it’s just an average Joe.” (36:09)
• Extended riffing on Peter Thiel’s online chess blunders as proof even the “elites” make rookie mistakes (37:31–40:13).

7. The Oasis v. LMNT Lawsuit—Startup Drama

• Elementary CEO James Murphy sues Oasis, accusing them of manipulating health ratings for profit and damaging challenger CPG brands like LMNT and Kettle and Fire (65:37–77:17).
• Jordi: “The more fear and controversy that he creates, the more… app downloads he drives and subscription revenues.”
• The hosts discuss the real harm of algorithmically amplifying misinformation, with big brands getting passes while upstarts get torched.

8. Fun, Tech, and AI Bits

• AI girlfriend debate: Apple’s Craig Federighi asserts Siri will not become an “AI girlfriend.” The hosts are skeptical: “People have jailbroken every single model” (96:14–96:20).
• Lighthearted segment with prank AI fridge calls (81:46–83:45).
• Automotive tangent: Fiat Tris, Shrek Edition, BMW M3 EV, and more. The team dreams of a TBPN-cast road trip with a mini-truck in Shrek green (87:46–94:59).
• Shout-outs to generational founders (Bo Nickal, Nikita Bier) and a “Swamp Edition” Richard Mille watch meme for SpaceX employees’ kids (101:49).
• Toyota MR2, BMW M3 EV, and the EV market’s lack of variety are briefly discussed (87:14–93:58).

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• John on the IPO:
  “It is like truly one of the most remarkable stories in the history of capitalism, in the history of America. Started in a little town called El Segundo…” [11:25]
• Gwynne Shotwell:
  “We have a history of making history.” [07:29]
  “What I recognized at that moment was that… it was the trying part that was the most important. Try that risky thing.” [12:30]
• Tyler after winning the IPO price prediction:
  “I went 31%, which would be 176. So I'm a little high...but I win.” [61:32]
• Jordi:
  “It is a valuation that only one man on earth can achieve.” [34:43]
• John on Founders Fund’s SpaceX return:
  “That is still, I think, the best venture investment of all time.” [37:10]
• On startup drama:
  “There are a lot of consumer packaged goods that effectively poison, of course. But when you build a business...” [73:43]

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Major Timestamps

• 00:45: SpaceX IPO stats and opening vibes
• 07:29–11:21: Gwynne Shotwell’s speech at NASDAQ + company history
• 18:01: Shotwell’s launch-day superstition and reflections
• 30:10–34:43: Financial Times coverage, traditional vs. Elon valuation metrics
• 36:49–41:44: Founders Fund & legendary tech IPO returns
• 50:20–51:23: Discussion of allocation shortages and retail FOMO
• 65:37–77:17: LMNT v. Oasis lawsuit, health misinformation, and CPG founder experiences
• 81:46–83:45: AI Fridge Prank segment
• 94:05–95:55: Fiat Tris, Shrek Edition, and AI girlfriend/Siri debate

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Episode Takeaways

• SpaceX’s IPO marks a generational shift in both market appetite for technology and the scale at which companies can debut, thanks to private market value capture.
• Gwynne Shotwell is celebrated for both operational excellence and being a stabilizing force next to Elon Musk’s volatility.
• The scale of allocation shortages and meme-driven market behavior illustrates how retail and public culture have fused with venture finance.
• Startups face growing risks from viral misinformation, sometimes from other tech upstarts, with legal and reputational ramifications.
• Much of tech’s recent history is made by “ordinary” people who prove extraordinary amid risk and bold bets—if you’re early, you can still lose big or win big.
• The tech world retains its spirit of irreverence, meme culture, and relentless optimism—even as it wrestles with trillion-dollar stakes and AI’s encroaching impact on everything from markets to fridges.

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For Further Listening / Viewing

• Follow TBPN for daily tech analysis, IPO coverage, and interviews with major founder-CEOs.
• Worth checking out: The Gwynne Shotwell NASDAQ speech for a masterclass in company-building against the odds; Founders Fund’s SpaceX origin story.
• For deep dives: Earlier TBPN episodes with Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, and Satya Nadella.

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For more, catch the full episode on Spotify and follow @TVPN for breaking tech news live.

Transcript

[A]

You're watching TVPN.

[B]

Today's Friday, June 12, 2026. We are live from the TVPN Ultradam. The temple of technology forces finance the capital of capital. Let's tell you about ramp.com time is money save both easy use corporate cards, bill pay accounting and a whole lot more all in one place. It's a massive day today. SpaceX IPO priced at $135 a share, opened at 150. Where is it right now? Jordy, are you on it? Do you have the price? Oh, the price is up there. Okay, now we're getting the endless mirror. Great, you can pull on the price, but here we go. We'll be tracking it throughout the show, so stay tuned. It's $2.28 trillion company. 172$172 a share. I had Tyler and Jordi submit confidential estimates for how where the stock would be at noon. Effectively, Jordy went with a market cap based estimate. Tyler went with a share price estimate, I think, which is what I was told. I went with a percentage based estimate. You can translate between all of them. We'll get there. But the stock's doing well. The IPO is successful, I would say. There's been a bunch of chatter back and forth, bull cases, bear cases, but overall it's hard not to look at this as a success. The, you know, Bill Gurley doesn't want a crazy pop on day one, doesn't want it to go up 100% if we're in 10, 20, 30% range for something this big that just feels like everything came together properly and so, so far, looks really, really good, healthy. So at noon we will check in with our predictions and see who won. There is an exciting prize for the winner, by the way. It will be revealed at noon as well. There's been a ton of coverage. We can pull up this video from Gwen Shotwell, who is the president of SpaceX and has been on an absolute tear building the company for basically its entire existence. What? What are you laughing at?

[A]

I didn't know what your prediction was.

[B]

Did you see what it is?

[A]

Yeah, Nick just shared it.

[B]

He did?

[A]

What's this guy over here? This is a funny guy over here. Funny guy over here. This is why you trade.

[B]

I was trying to.

[A]

This is why you trade bits, not stocks.

[B]

I was trying to pull an estimate out of you and you were like asking me 25 clarifying questions. The purpose is content to have a conversation. Just pick a number and you're like, oh, well, does it count where it opens or what? Where it opens after.

[A]

Like I just saw your positioning was. I just saw your.

[B]

I was just like, just throw out a number. We gotta have a discussion about this.

[A]

There's nothing per share.

[B]

Sure.

[A]

Everything's on the line, John. Everything is on.

[B]

I was laughing about how you wouldn't take a side on the. On the dog walker versus the dentist. I was like, dog walker, dentist blind. Who you going? And you were like, I can't possibly. I couldn't possibly in the name of good television, just pick a random side for the dog.

[A]

Dog walker or dentist?

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Beach debate.

[B]

The beach debate. We never, we never got your answer. And you were like, I need more information. I can't possibly make a call.

[A]

It's such a tough one because I don't not that tough randomly. Here's why it's tough for me, John.

[B]

Okay, explain.

[A]

I have never in my life hired or worked with a dog walker. Yeah, my family growing up had a couple dogs. Yeah, we walked our dog. Yeah, like we never.

[B]

You've been to the dentist.

[A]

I was the dog walker.

[B]

Yeah, you've been. You're not your own dentist though, so why are you just going dentists?

[A]

I've never had a cavity. Every time I go in there. I guess I'm blessed.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

Every time I go in there, they're like, looks good, boss.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

And I just head out.

[B]

So equally useless.

[A]

Equally useless profession.

[B]

So flip the coin. It's tv useless profession.

[A]

No, I just don't have any of that connection. I need, I need.

[B]

What about the. Why don't you fall back to like the economic power of the dentist industry versus the dog walking industry? Like if you had to pay job if you were trying to get a bag.

[A]

I respect dog.

[B]

Oh, you would go dog walker. Oh, you would be an elite dog walker over a mid dentist.

[A]

Here's, here's too, here's like, here's kind of my thinking.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[A]

There's a guy in my neighborhood who is walking dogs in my neighborhood all day long. I'm like, who? Like a lot of people in my neighborhood don't work. They're just home all day. Like, why aren't you walking your dog? But I think it's amazing that this guy is just like, he's printing, clearly printing all day long. Just going for walks, hanging out. He's listening to music, hanging out. Super nice guy. He picks up the sounds like you're going dog walking up the poop when he. When they sleep on my lawn.

[B]

Yeah, it's great.

[A]

I appreciate it. We have a, you know, good relationship. Maybe wish you wouldn't do that, but okay, we have a fine relationship. But then dentists. I could get really excited about a dentist if they were.

[B]

You're still torn. You're still.

[A]

You're still not taking aside equity backed roll up.

[B]

Okay. Okay.

[A]

Well, that's an option dentist was kind of a figurehead for. For some PE firm.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Be able to deploy huge amounts of capital to rolling up family practices and raising prices.

[B]

Well, what if you're a dog walker? You earn so much money, you start being able to buy small dentist shops, rolling them up. You flip from dog walking into dentistry.

[A]

Well, that would be the way. We don't know much about this story, but we do know there's a conflict. But that would be the way for the dog walker to strike back is by the dentist.

[B]

So final, final answer come in. What side are you picking?

[A]

If the dog walker will commit to no conditionals.

[B]

Dog walker, dentist.

[A]

Why can't I have condition.

[B]

You can't have conditions because that's the rules that I'm laying down. You got to pick one dog walker dentist. Whose side are you on?

[A]

Dog walker.

[B]

There we go. Finally we got going.

[A]

But I'm going to put. But I'm going. I'm going to put heavy. The whole point of a serious amount of pressure.

[B]

I'll just take dentists. I'm going to defend that and steel, man, that's.

[A]

I'm going to put a serious amount of pressure on the dog walker.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

And I will provide the financial backing to acquire the dentist practice and shut it down. Because I know they have. I know they have some conflict.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And it sounds like it's over the beach. It's really not that personal.

[B]

Yeah, yeah.

[A]

In access to the beach. But I think there's an opportunity to make it personal. And I think. I think at this point, if they're getting written up in the journal about this conflict, I think they should make it. They got to figure out how to make it personal. And I think buying the dentist practice and then shutting it down or

[B]

as a high.

[A]

No, no. You can raise an spv. You can put the capital together. And I would be willing to, you know, I need to meet the guy first, but I'm at least moderately interested in providing at least some of the backing for the.

[B]

I gotcha. Well, let me tell you about CrowdStrike. Your business is AI. Their business is securing it. CrowdStrike secures AI and stops breaches. Let's play this clip from Gwen Shotwell standing at The NASDAQ on the day of the 6th.

[A]

Can we play it on the big board?

[B]

I think we might be able to play it on the big board. Stock is doing well, holding steady at

[A]

2.6 or maybe 7 trillion split screen.

[B]

Whatever the election team wants to do, we will do. As long as the folks at home can see Gwynne Shotwell giving her speech to.

[A]

I gotta say, Tyler is looking like a young Kimball Musk right now.

[C]

Today we make history again. We have a history of making history. So I want everyone to know that we did open this morning in a rather exciting way. Launched Falcon 9, launched Starlink satellites to orbit.

[A]

We have a history of nation history.

[C]

So what company would do such a thing on the day that they open in the public market? SpaceX would, right? I am so proud of this team. Today we're 24. Not today, this year we are 24 years old. Elon founded this company in 2002 initially to build rockets and spaceships that will take humans to Mars, the moon and even beyond. We've done, we've not quite gotten to Mars. We're almost at the moon. But let's just quickly run through the amazing things that you guys have accomplished. 2008, six weeks after a failure of Flight 3 Falcon 1, we got the first liquid fueled rocket to orbit from a private company. Yay. Yay. By the way, I should have prefaced this with everyone said we could never get to orbit. Check. But it was a little rocket. Then everyone said, well you can't get a real rocket to orbit. Two years later, we got a real rocket to orbit Falcon 9. Oh well, you'll never, you'll never get to the space station because that's what we really want to do, right? We want to take humans outside the bounds of Earth. But you'll never get astronauts to the space station. Check. We did that too. Doubters, right? Oh, you'll Never fly Falcon 9 Enough. You'll never get to production. 1965 launches last year. Check.

[B]

Yeah,

[C]

you'll never build a rocket large enough to take humans to the moon and Mars. We build one, we've flown it. And this year I believe we'll get to orbit with that vehicle and we'll recover the first, the second stage. We've already recovered the first stage and reflown it. So good on you all for that too. With the merger, the acquisition of xai, we now as a group own the largest coherent gigawatt class compute on the planet, which will help us truth seek and understand the universe. So congratulations to all of us for that. So we're about 22,000 strong. I'm super proud that over half of us actually bought additional stock in this opening totaling almost a billion dollars. So thank you for that too. But really, the thank yous go to all of you for hanging in there, for keeping a straight spine as the doubters doubt to achieve historic things, sometimes every day, multiple times a week. Thank you, all of you, for doing this. And I hope today is a day that you feel great about and that you're celebrating. Take a moment now. The Falcon recovery team can't take a moment today, but everybody else can. And I hope Falcon recovery team could take a moment a little bit later. Yep. And also thank you to the families, the partners, the plus ones, the children, the brothers, the sisters, the parents that have lived through long nights, that have seen launch failures, that have seen AI compute go down, that have seen kind of the trials and tribulations of this incredibly difficult business. Thank you so much for hanging in there. I know I can't do this without

[B]

a crazy, without my incredible.

[D]

Rosie, can we get a standing. Oh, standing oh.

[A]

In all seriousness, Congratulations to the SpaceX team. It is like truly one of the most remarkable stories in the history of capitalism, in the history of America. Started in a little town called El Segundo. And Glenn Shotwell, one of the. Sorry, sorry, sorry. One of the most impressive executives of the modern era. Crazy. And we all should have known just due to the nominative determinism. Yeah, if you're gonna run a rock, if you're gonna build a rocket company, hire somebody to run the company with the last name Shot. Well, because she has shot quite well.

[B]

Yeah, she worked at Chrysler and then began work.

[A]

That's Elster, people like to say, like, oh, non traditional background, somewhat Chrysler. Yeah, I mean, not exactly like a target.

[B]

Yeah. Well, she worked at the Aerospace Corporation, did technical work on military space research and development contracts. Early project she worked on was STS 39. During a 10 year tenure, she worked on thermal analysis, worked both in space systems engineering and project management positions. She left the Aerospace Corporation in 1998 to become director of the Space Systems division at Microcosm Inc. A small rocket company in El Segundo. There she was on the executive committee and responsible for business development. In 2002, she joined SpaceX and she reflected on that later. She said, when I was considering joining SpaceX back in 2002, I was struggling with the decision and drawing it out for weeks. It's crazy. Leaving Elon on red for weeks seems extremely Risky. It feels like every decision he makes now is like, go, no go today. Get back to me right now. Back then, obviously SpaceX was very young. Less leverage, less energy, less momentum. So these decisions would be drawn out. She said. It seemed so risky for me personally to join this little startup in an industry where none had ever succeeded. I think she was starting a family around that time. And so it was risky from a career perspective. She said. At the time I was a part time single mother. Yeah. And this was just too far out of my comfort zone. She was used to bigger corporations, more established companies. She's going to this small startup that has, you know, at that time, it's like a guy who made money on the Internet, now wants to do rocketry. What's the chance that that works? It sounds crazy. And it was at the time, she says, I was driving on the freeway here in LA when it finally hit me. I was being a total idiot. Who cares if I tried this job and either I failed or the company failed. What I recognized at that moment was that it, it was the trying part that was the most important. Try that risky thing. Be a part of something exciting. What a fantastic run. And I'm not sure if she coined the term residual capability, but that's a big phrase that she started using around the time Starlink started working. Just this idea that they would go and build ahead of demand almost. So SpaceX built basically more launch capacity than there was demand for. But then because there was space on every SpaceX rocket and they were able to build them so efficiently, so affordably, they were able to put up a massive constellation of Internet connected satellites, Starlinks, and develop another huge business on top of it. And so this idea of building, building, building and then finding the different opportunities for a while SpaceX, point to point was the big residual capability unlock that was coming in a few years. The idea that you get on a spaceship, a starship in New York, and you'd be in Tokyo in 30 minutes because you would have gone all the way to space and back and it would land. I think that's still part of the plan, but obviously took a back seat in the S1, took a backseat in the marketing materials for the company. But something that is still possible if you, you wind up delivering incredible safety and performance and cost reductions to the rocket launches. Why not hop on a rocket to get across the world in 30 minutes? Sounds pretty cool. And probably oddly easier to approve than hypersonic planes since those have been stuck in regulatory approvals for years and decades. And Never really worked out. The Wall Street Journal is also reflecting on Gwynne Shotwell. They say 19 things to know about SpaceX president. She's a diplomat. She's seen as a steady hand engendering trust in the company from those who have been unsettled by Musk's actions. You're worried about his politics, you're worried about his other companies. Well, Shotwell has you covered with a very steady hand on the tiller at a very large company with 22,000 employees. As she mentioned, she's a billionaire. After the Shotwell. After the IPO, Shotwell's net worth will be north of 1 billion. She owns about 12.6 million shares. She translates Musk's lofty ideas.

[A]

That part is a little bit crazy.

[B]

Which one?

[A]

To me?

[B]

Which one?

[A]

So at the current price, she is closer to being worth like 2 billion.

[B]

Okay. But still, to be that early and that critical and not wind up with a 5% stake or 1%.

[A]

Not even. Not. Yeah, like something more like a 1% stake.

[B]

A lot of dilution. You know, big, big company.

[A]

A lot of dilution, but a lot of secondary.

[B]

She might have been selling with, like. Yeah, we actually started out with it.

[A]

She's like, yeah, I'm really bullish.

[B]

We gave her 40%.

[A]

I'm really down to never been more bullish. But you did sell 95 in the latest tender.

[D]

Yeah. That is good because, I mean, Elon's hitting one T and she's just hitting one B.

[B]

Well, yeah. Shotwell was paid 86 million last year, mostly in the form of stock options. She's one of eight board members at 6 SpaceX. She's 62 and has worked with Musk for two decades. She has a specific ritual for launch days because she was in Scotland the first time the company successfully got a rocket into orbit. She now writes Scotland on two sticky notes and places each inside her shoes to be in Scotland for every launch.

[A]

She said at a 2020 Scotland mindset.

[B]

That's pretty elite. I like is. What's that called? Where you're superstitious? Superstitions. Rare, potentially underrated. What do you think? Do you have any superstitions?

[A]

I mean, it's in the word super. Yeah, super power.

[B]

Superstition. That's another one. Anyway, gigas, whether you're long, whether you're short. SpaceX Express yourself on public.com investing for those who take it seriously. Stocks, options, bonds, crypto, treasuries and more with great customer service. What's your take on superstition? Do you have any? Doesn't sound like it.

[A]

I think it's quite distracting.

[B]

Distracting to have a superstition?

[A]

Yeah, Kind of like could end up being a pretty big waste of time. So I avoid them.

[B]

So you feel like unless you go through your whole ritual of eliminating all distractions, things aren't going to go well. So you're superstitious about letting distractions creep into your workflow. I understand that.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. You got your own. Maybe I am. Maybe I am.

[B]

Yeah. If I have a single distraction, everything will fail. She's been a staunch defender of Musk. She worked to prevent business fallout during all the political turmoil. She worked with NASA officials and assured them that tensions would pass. She doesn't love social media. I like his in person self better than his Twitter self. In fact, they feel like two different people many of the times. She has a much different social media presence than her boss, posting sparingly exclusively about SpaceX. She's about talking, focused. She was raised outside of Chicago. As a teenager, she decided she would become an engineer.

[A]

Wait, you could imagine, like she's reading X. She's like crying emojis. Quoting six more posts. Crying emojis. He's never crying. Yeah, at the office. He never does that.

[B]

He's like pretty locked in actually.

[A]

This feels like. I feel like I don't know this guy. He's always crying.

[B]

Yeah. Well, when she first joined SpaceX, she was VP of business development. So not in the in like a co founder, chief executive type role on day one. And so that probably explains a little bit of the equity position and how that developed over time. But she was promoted to SpaceX's president and chief operating officer in 2008, the same year the company won a critical $1.6 billion NASA cargo transport deal.

[D]

So I looked up. She was SpaceX's seventh employee.

[B]

Wow, that's pretty early. She'd be disappointed if SpaceX didn't have a settlement on the moon and wasn't building a manufacturing facility on the moon within 10 years. She showed time. She lives on a 1,000 acre ranch close to a SpaceX facility in Texas. She married a fellow SpaceX engineer and has two children. She put a Starlink mini terminal on top of her car to speak with Musk on her 40 minute commute without the call dropping. Interesting. Jimmy Sauni also went back in time and told a story in the Wall Street Journal about one of the early days in the SpaceX journey. Vindication for young Elon Musk. He wrote in 2004. He told the Senate that open competition would transform the industry first, before we get into this, let me tell you about Railway. Railway is the all in one intelligent cloud provider. Use your favorite agents to deploy web apps, servers, databases and more. While Railway automatically takes care of scaling, monitoring and security. So this was an interesting story and I wonder if we could find the actual video like on C Span. I don't know if it's out there, but. In 2004, the Senate held a subcommittee meeting gathered on all the subcommittee gathers on Capitol Hill to ask a question that now sounds quaint. Could America still reach space without the space shuttle? Of course, we do it like every couple days. Thanks to SpaceX, the shuttle was grounded, 14 astronauts had died in two disasters and the hearing room was thunder thick with anxiety of a nation that feared it had lost a step. Senator Bill Nelson, who had flown on the shuttle, sort of the Jared Isaacman of his era, warned that without it, the country might spend years relying on Russian rockets. Nobody disagreed. Witnesses came in two panels. First you got the NASA team defending the program through William Reddy, its associate administration for administrator for space flight, accompanied by a retired admiral. After NASA spoke, industry did, they got a vice president from atk, another from Lockheed Martin, a director from the aerospace group. Are you looking for a candle, A nuke? One way or another.

[A]

This is brutal.

[B]

For my prediction, this is brutal.

[D]

I'm feeling pretty good.

[B]

But it's also brutal for anyone that wants drama on the chart because you're not getting it today. It's very stable. I think this is a very well managed project from start to finish and

[A]

then now it's just like a trillion dollar company so it's hard for it to move. Super.

[B]

I don't know, I just think that if you were expecting 10% swings up

[D]

and down, I'm feeling share count is pretty small though, right? Like at least that they're being traded.

[A]

Sure, sure.

[B]

Very, very small. So the last person on the industry panel you got Lockheed, atk, Aerospace Corp.

[A]

It's Elon Musk AP in the chat. Wait for dip,

[B]

can you? It just nukes down to $5. So on the second panel, the industry panel, you got heavy hitters from Lockheed, other industry folks, you got a 32 year old man who had founded a rocket company two years earlier and he'd yet to launch anything. It was Elon Musk. He had a more immediate complaint. NASA had just awarded arrival a quarter of a billion dollar contract without open competition and his company had protested. So everyone's there to debate like, okay, can NASA get to space without the shuttle. And he's there being like, what about my contract? He shows up to this thing to testify, and they keep having to try and keep him on track. It's a very interesting way to, like, get his word in edgewise. So the senators thought the matter was off limits. Like, this hearing isn't about that, Elon. It's not about your contract. It was under government review already. And they kept having to steer him back to the day's subject, specifically heavy lift. The blunt problem of getting big things off the planet. Certainly, he said, although it's worth correcting. I think Mr. Reddy misspoke when he said it was competitive. It was in fact not competitive. The chairman tried again. Let's stay to heavy lift capacity issues. Elon, stay on message. And Elon says, absolutely. But his correction was safely on the record. He said something the panel wasn't ready to hear. The past few decades, Elon Musk told them, had been a dark age for human space flight. One costly government program after another failed to reach the pad. The public's drift from space, he argued, wasn't the apathy of a tired people, but the disappointment of a hopeful one. It sounded in 2004 like a man with a grievance and a half built rocket. He was dismissed. He had made the same case the summer before. Before, in one of his first Capitol Hill appearances at a 2003 hearing on commercial space flight. There's a borrowed concept from the economist Joseph Schumpter, a creative destruction. The industry had lost it. Not one successful new entrant in four decades. Space, Mr. Musk pointed out, had barely improved since Apollo, while every other technology, from computing and the Internet to intercontinental flight, had been transformed by newcomers and open competition. Restore that forcing function, he said, and space would change no less dramatically. The government need only be a customer, not a competitor. He could be glib. Every launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base, he said, was required by law to be studied for its effect on the local seals. At $10,000 a flight, even as that population had been climbing by nearly 13% in a single year, he says the seals are doing fine. Let me launch with the population. With that population growth rate, Mr. Musk observed, it seems clear that, if anything, the Vandenberg launch activity serves as an aphrodisiac. Dropping lines, dropping zingers. On Capitol Hill, people laughed. It was the laughter you gave a clever outsider. But we can grade that clever outsider's argument now, because more than 20 years have passed and the record is in the fear that haunted. That 2004 hearing Dependence on Moscow was not ended by the shuttle, but by Mr. Musk's company. In 2002, a SpaceX capsule carried two astronauts to the space station from American soil. 2020, closing a nine year gap in which the United States paid Russia as much as $90 million a seat to hitch a ride. The semi reusable rocket Mr. Musk described to skeptical senators became a fleet of boosters that land themselves and fly again. Today, SpaceX launches more than half the world's payloads. On Friday, it goes public in what is expected to be the largest IPO in history. What are you laughing at, Jordy Hayes?

[A]

I'm laughing at the comments on this. On this article post we made earlier.

[B]

Oh, what did we say?

[A]

Breaking the pride of France, Mistral AI is exploring a raise of 3 billion at a 20 billion euro valuation.

[B]

You get in trouble. You have such a bone to pick with France. You're always taking shots at France. What did France do to you?

[A]

I love France.

[B]

Beautiful.

[A]

I genuinely. It's one of my favorite countries in the entire world. I love it.

[B]

But people are having fun, poking fun at France.

[A]

But I just think you're.

[B]

Oh, you're.

[A]

I'm kind of laughing at my own. Your own joke a little bit.

[B]

Because the car just says France, right?

[A]

It says French.

[B]

French, French.

[A]

Let's, let's. But let's put it up.

[B]

We will. Well, the Financial Times has every possible take on on SpaceX today. Scroll down. How's it doing? Good times. Stuart Kirk says SpaceX is cheap on a price to cosmos ratio. Terrestrial valuations don't apply when it comes to Elon Musk. Last June, he wrote a column with the headline An Entry Level Guide to Valuing Stocks. He also provided a link to a simple valuation tool that even my children's new hamster could use. What? How can a hamster use this? Interesting. I guess he's joking around. That's a weird line to throw in. But discounted cash flow models require that cash moves in and out of a business to be net positive in order to calculate what a company is worth. Unless you want a negative number for some reason, like in divorce court. Hence, few years after I became a portfolio manager in the mid-90s, equity analysts trying to flog.com stocks began using price to sales ratios. When those look too silly, they invented price to clicks or price to eyeballs. And you know how that ended. No wonder investors still prefer cash flow based valuation methodologies over anything else. That said, there are legitimate reasons to employ other Metrics including price to sales ratios. The latter are handy as a sense check when profits are temporarily depressed, distorted or cyclical, provided that the revenues are real and measurable. If a price to earnings ratio appears odd, comparing price to sales ratios within an industry can be reassuring. Moreover, plenty of firms operate at a loss and thus using earnings multiples doesn't work, period. This can go on for years due to a heavy investment in business. Amazon was founded in 1994 and didn't make a profit in until 2003. And a lot of people are taking a victory lap today over Aswath the modren, the NYU finance professor who I have a ton of respect for. But he was very skeptical about the Tesla IPO when that went out. And everyone reasonable in the finance world was saying, well, the valuation is disconnected from the fundamentals. Compared to any other car company compared to any other company doesn't make sense. But of course, the revenues did grow, the earnings things did materialize. They did wind up making money, although the stock is still very highly valued because Elon's pitches a very large vision.

[A]

Elon companies can stay disconnected from the fundamentals longer than you can stay solvent.

[B]

And that's what Stuart Kirk is arguing in the Financial Times. He says terrestrial valuations don't apply when it comes to Elon. And that is something that I think a lot of people have internalized.

[D]

Trust the plan.

[B]

Yes, so trust the plan. Enter SpaceX on 95 times. 95 times revenue, I believe. No, I haven't forgotten. The decimal point prediction is good for you.

[A]

It was looking so good an hour ago.

[B]

Too bad. But let me tell you about MongoDB. What's the only thing faster than the AI market? Your business on MongoDB? Don't just build AI, own the data platform that powers it. I seriously couldn't believe it when I first divided the Target valuation of $1.8 trillion by the last 12 months of revenues. I laughed so hard the wine I was drinking shot from my nose. This is the most. This is the most Financial Times article I've ever read. But he's not saying. He's not saying I almost spit up. But no, that's different. So a spit take is one thing. You spit out your coffee. What is that? He says he was drinking wine and it came out of his nose. That's brutal. Like, that's very rare. You gotta be drunk for that to happen.

[A]

That sounds like you have to be

[B]

really drunk to have the alcohol come out of your nose and not just spit it up or throw up. I feel like the tear of like bad things that can happen to you when you're drinking too much.

[D]

I laughed so hard I threw up.

[B]

Well, no, I don't know, maybe drinking a lot. I laughed so hard the wine I was drinking shot from my nose. Then I laughed some more. This guy is really taking, you know

[A]

that he just made this up entirely because as anyone had liquid. Has anyone been drinking something, started laughing and had spit take. Yeah, but out of the mouth is one thing.

[B]

Spit take is different than out of your nose. Your nose is a new level. New level. Anyway.

[A]

Yeah, mechanically I don't buy it. I think he tried to. I think he tried to. Tried to really like illustrate this.

[B]

I think so. Well, he continues, he says, then I laughed some more when I thought of all those analysts who had to justify that their multiple, that multiple in their buy recommendations to clients. It was easy for Goldman Sachs. However, it simply forecasted revenues to rise 25 fold by 2030. It makes me wonder why they didn't push for 50 fold. Or why not sales up to 100 times in four years SpaceX could have raised double or quadruple the money. After all, the IPO offering was at least three times oversubscribed and on Friday trading opened with the stock up 11%. How might a sensible person, which excludes conflicted global bankers and meme investors who jump on anything from marijuana to the metaverse to Bitcoin and AI, value SpaceX then? Frankly, I haven't a clue. This guy's writing like the most non article by which I mean I have no idea how anyone can arrive at the current valuation. And it's not that the outlook for SpaceX's core launch and satellite communications business, as well as artificial intelligence, is largely theoretical at this point. It's that even insanely bullish assumptions get me nowhere near the share price. Perhaps I'm not dreaming. Big enough. Space is larger than earthling investors such as me are used to analyzing. Then again, I've just read the Morningstar research report from a couple weeks ago that arrived the at at a valuation of 780 billion, less than half of SpaceX's market cap. And it was wildly optimistic. Morningstar wrote of prodigious cost advantages in launch reaching 18 billion in sales within a decade at 20% margins for even the more sensible Starlink business, tens, not necessarily hundreds of billions of dollars in annual growth over the coming decade are penciled in at operating margins potentially exceeding 75%. What a fan favorite. Fantastic telecom business Starlink is truly. But of Course, when you're dealing with trillions, you need to be, you know, the most exceptional. In their moonshot scenario, ones and zeros somehow arrive, somehow survive the battering from solar radiation. There are meaningful cost advantages over data centers on Earth. And SpaceX wins a fifth of the forecast market for AI infrastructure computing capacity. In a worst case scenario, it's a dud. With the base case 4% of capacity, the latter is given a 50% chance of happening. Failure has a 43% waiting, and the moonshot scenario, the rump. But even that 7% chance adds $93 billion to the overall valuation.

[A]

Lot of mumbo, A lot of mumbo jumbo you're not buying. It's a collection of some great businesses, some businesses that have a lot of people potential. It is a valuation that only one man on earth can achieve.

[B]

Well, if you're trying to take your company public, you got to do it on the New York Stock Exchange. Want to change the world? Raise capital at the New York Stock Exchange. There's a whole bunch more posts. There's a post here, officially the first trillionaire in the entire world in USD terms. Someone said that because of hyperinflation, there had been been many trillionaires in other countries denominated in other foreign currencies. I think Zimbabwe is among them. Potentially the German Reichsmark one point minted a trillionaire potentially.

[A]

But I wanted to pull up this post from Founders Fund because it was so inspiring for me. They posted this this morning and they said it is possible for ordinary people to choose to be extraordinary. And I've always just seen Elon as such a normal, ordinary guy. Right? Like he's just like an ordinary guy.

[B]

He's not. And he's been ordinary for the last 20 years. But he was, he was 30 years ago, 40 years ago. Like he was like, he was like a SaaS founder with like a decent business that sold and IPO'd. Like he was like a good unicorn founder of today.

[A]

Yeah. And I don't view good unicorn founders of today as ordinary people. Almost every time you meet them, their elite on like a couple dimensions.

[B]

Oh, okay.

[A]

And so my argument is that like Elon was, at no point in his life would you have met him and thought, yeah, it's just an average Joe.

[B]

Ordinary guy.

[A]

Just an ordinary guy. I don't know. Anyways, I was texting, I was texting our friends over at ff, poking a little fun at this. I said, elon Musk is a very ordinary guy. This inspired me.

[B]

I don't know There is a lot of ordinariness.

[A]

You know what's not ordinary? His Diablo FF's investment of $20 million at a $200 million valuation into SpaceX did get diluted, but it is still, I think, like the best venture investment of all time. Wait, no, I thought it was more like it's 50. I thought it was more like 80.

[B]

80. I think it's closer to 8 trillion cents. I think they made 8 trillion cents. 8 trillion pennies. PT needed a win.

[A]

What was the return in basis points?

[B]

He needed a win because apparently.

[A]

What was the return in basis points

[B]

out with him on chess.com? have you seen this?

[A]

Oh, yeah. Do we need to play this?

[B]

We need to play the video of a gentleman on Instagram who found Peter Thiel's Chess.com account, played him and won.

[A]

Do you have the video pulled up?

[B]

It's in the timeline. Deeper down there. Can we pull up? Here we go. It is from Tuck Gessner on Instagram. He says he found Peter Thiel's chess account, played him. I mean, we already spoiled it.

[E]

I don't know if anybody knows about this, but Peter Thiel has a Chess.com account with his real name under which he's played over 50,000 worst. And the reason I know it's him is, first of all, his friends are all these Silicon Valley and ex Stanford founders.

[A]

And I put this account into a

[E]

database called Opening Tree, which allows me to cross reference his most played moves with his public tournament games that he played in the 90s. And it's all the same stuff. So our game went e4, e5, knight, f3, knight, f6. I played the Stafford gambit, and on move six, he fell into a Stafford Gambit.

[B]

What are we doing?

[D]

Well, no, no, he didn't fall for the Gambit, but.

[E]

And I fell for a classic blunder here.

[B]

Okay?

[E]

And the point is that when he takes back played Bishop takes F2, winning his queen by four.

[D]

Yeah, I see.

[E]

So most players would just give up. They would just resign in this position.

[A]

But Peter Thiel does played on.

[E]

And a few moves later, he made another very elementary mistake. He played bishop takes a seven. And this is the kind of move that you see beginners make. Very rarely does anybody over 2000 not see that. You can just play B6 afterwards, which traps the bishop. And I'm just going to scoop it up in a few moves. Even here, he didn't resign. He kept playing on until I checkmated him shortly after. I find this really funny because Peter Thiel Has a reputation being a sort of chess genius. So I wanted to take this opportunity to show the real Peter Thiel, who falls for basic opening traps.

[A]

Here's the thing. And you can see Elon.

[B]

Yeah. Ordinary guy. Proof that they're all ordinary guys.

[A]

Elon never gives up. Right. Famous picture of him standing there, everything's in shambles. Never gives up. Also makes elementary mistakes sometimes picking, you know, accusing the president of things, you know, on, you know, social media. Right. Kind of an elementary mistake. You know, if you're a government contractor.

[D]

Lawsuits.

[A]

That's right. That's elementary mistakes. And so again, I think PT Never gives up. Makes some elementary mistakes.

[B]

There's a lesson there.

[A]

Lesson in there.

[B]

Lesson in there for sure. Let's pull up this post from Andy showing a visual guide to the SpaceX IPO while I tell you about Codex. Codex is a powerful workspace for getting work done with AI agents. Whether you're writing code, analyzing data, creating content, or automating business workflows, Codex helps you move projects forward from start to finish. So what is this saying? What's going to happen here?

[A]

This is technical analysis.

[B]

Okay. This is technical analysis. And he's saying that it's going to pop on IPO day, sell off for three straight years and then go to the moon. Is that. This is that. And. And every. He's basically saying that everyone's going to be taking victory lapse if the stock trades down in 2026, 2027, 2028. But then ultimately they will all be upset. I mean, there, there are some crazy articles out there that are like the rise and fall of Elon Musk a year ago. Like, he can't possibly come back from the reputational damage he's done to himself.

[A]

Yeah. No one's buying the car.

[B]

The cars. And it's like, well, they're buying the stocks, so, you know, it's going to be okay, I guess. Founders fund investment at 200 million might be the best venture investment in history. A lot of that is just the holding to fruition. Like because the early investors in Google or Microsoft or Amazon, like, a lot of them distributed at IPO at like a 5 billion value.

[D]

Even some of the founders, Right. Bill Gates.

[B]

Oh, yeah. He sold too early. Right. Paper hands.

[A]

No. The only thing is, I do think Masa hasn't beat. I think Masa hasn't beat with Alibaba because It was like 20 million into 70 billion. Sure. On a shorter time horizon.

[B]

Ooh, masa get mog. Mogged anyway.

[A]

PT Mogg.

[B]

Yeah. Think about even more risk. McAllister Higgins says, I'm at the bottom of a multi layer.

[A]

Sun bought into Alibaba for 20 million in 2000. By the 2014 IPO, it was worth 75 billion.

[B]

Okay, well, game's not over. It's young. They can make it all back. So I'm at the bottom of a multi layer SPV and I'm looking forward to the SpaceX IPO in much the same way a golden retriever looks toward. Looks forward to a car ride. Thrilled to be involved, no clue how cars work. Unsure if going to the park or getting neutered. And Matt Grimm says, godspeed, sir. It's actually so funny to be in that position where you're just, you just have no idea what your hands are worth or what you'll wind up getting. This James.

[A]

This is a new format, by the way.

[B]

Yeah. Oh, wait. Oh, this whole golden retriever thing.

[A]

No, I predict other ways to apply this.

[B]

Oh, yeah, that makes sense. I like it. I like it. Pick the next post. While I tell everyone about Consul, Consul builds AI agents that automate 70% of it. HR and Finance, giving employees instant resolution for access requests and password resets. Brad Gerstner is sharing some historical performance of IPOs. Split adjusted Nvidia IPO'd at 4 cents and is at 200 bucks today. Apple at 10 cents. 292 today. These big tech companies have all delivered fantastic returns. And the question is, why is he posting this today? Is he putting SpaceX in this category? I mean, one other Elon Musk company is in this category. So that's certainly the pitch here.

[A]

Not a super fair. Not that he's comparing to SpaceX or trying to elude that. There's the big connection here. But all of these companies IPO before the private markets had evolved to capture, you know, massive amounts of the value creation.

[B]

Amazon is a $2.5 trillion company. SpaceX is IPOing at 2.2 trillion. When Amazon IPO it was not as big as Exxon Mobil. It was not jumping directly into the top five top 10 biggest companies in the world. And so, like, there's always this question of like, okay, where will. Like, it's not, it's, it's always interesting when a company IPOs and you're like, oh, they could be a disruptor and they could flip something. Like, I was always thinking about this, like, Figma obviously stocks up and down, but like, there was a very clear, like, well, what if Figma flips Adobe? Like, okay, you know, is that Possible. Is that your thesis? Well, Figma IPOs at 20 and Figma's and Adobe's at 100. Like you can see closing the gap and that's the 5x and that's probably what a lot of people were like underwriting against. But it's hard. Like you really do need to expand the global economy, get to Mars, do all the crazy things to actually create a new class of company to get that type of, of return. Because if you're getting the Brad Gerstner style 100x1000x post IPO return, you're looking at a quadrillion dollar company, which is 100 quadrillion pennies, which is a lot.

[A]

Can you imagine telling somebody that two years ago that SpaceX in 2026 would be worth 2.3 trillion and Meta would be worth 1.4 trillion? With Meta at 200 billion of revenue growing 30.

[B]

It's crazy, it's wild.

[A]

Even Amazon being even in the same, being within striking distance.

[B]

We've debated with friends about who's the goat? Elon Bezos. How do you, how do you match them up? And we have a friend who's always

[A]

like, well, and Amazon, Amazon owns. Amazon owns like roughly like somewhere like around 20% of anthropic. And it is just, we get so desensitized to these large.

[B]

This is a special founder, special company, unique situation. Dan Primack is talking about the IPO Pop. He says if you view a typical IPO Pop as 10%, then the bar for SpaceX is $162, which is the current indicated open, although it's been falling. Okay, so as fact check false. Okay, explain.

[D]

I mean it's much higher than 162, right?

[B]

Oh, so it's popped more than 20% like at.

[D]

I mean, yeah, 24%.

[A]

Leave it to Tyler to make a stock chart that doesn't show the price per share.

[B]

I was like, I just like market cap. No, we can flip it, we can flip it around. I like market caps. Anyway, I pulled up huge news for

[A]

approximate valuations, that IPO for Nvidia was 430 million fully diluted dollars.

[B]

Yes, or cents.

[A]

Apple was $1.3 billion or cents. Microsoft was 777 million. Market cap.

[B]

77 million what?

[A]

Dollars or cents?

[B]

US dollars or dollars. Because the real move is to like IPO in like Zimbabwean sense or something like that, or German Reichmarks. Because then you're just like, yeah, I'm actually a trillion dollar company too. You're like, well, what would it be in USD and you're like, it's a

[D]

$4 million 0.01 or 0.01 dollars.

[B]

Huge news for the degens in the audience. There's already a space 2x levered ETF. You had 2x SpaceX exposure on day one. It's hand in an AK47 to a monkey according to liquidity. It's happening. It's happening, folks.

[D]

I saw this earlier and it looked like that ETF was trading before SpaceX was actually trading.

[B]

Maybe they got exposure through some SPV.

[D]

Yeah, I guess that's not the defiance.

[B]

Daily 2x SpaceX ETF seeks to provide 200% of SpaceX's daily performance. So they do it synthetically, they do it with a whole bunch of other instruments. There's a lot going on there. Let me tell you about Cisco. Critical infrastructure for the AI era unlocks seamless real time experiences with Cisco.

[A]

Big shout out to our friends at 137 Ventures. Justin, Alex, they invested one time in

[B]

SpaceX, three times in SpaceX, seven times, four times, seven times in SpaceX, 10 times, 37 times in SpaceX.

[A]

Basically nominative determinism is actually crazy. Why are you called 137 Ventures? Because we're going to invest in SpaceX 137 times.

[B]

It worked.

[A]

And it worked. It worked. They printed the level of conviction and

[B]

Justin Fishner Wolfson has a profile in the New York Times talking about his story building that firm. And they do more than secondaries, they do more than SpaceX. Obviously. They're huge investors in all sorts of great companies. Many of them have been featured on the show. But SpaceX has stood out as a particularly interesting journey for them since they've been amassing ownership for 15 years and they've done a fantastic job with that. The firm now owns more than 1% of SpaceX, worth roughly $20 billion at the expected 1.77 trillion valuation. So it's closer to 30 now. Congratulations. This will most likely define my career, Justin said in an interview this week. Congrats to Christian Garrett, congrats to Justin and the rest of the team over there. Heard in the chats I put $1 million SpaceX order through a private bank and just got filled only 50k, 120th of what this individual asked for. Most people I spoke to have gotten even less. We had some folks on the team put in orders for 20 shares, 50 shares, 100 shares, and only get a small fraction of that. How much did you get, Tyler?

[D]

I got 22, 22 shares.

[B]

But you requested more.

[D]

Yes. And then. Yeah, I mean, we've had a lot of people. They say they only got one chair.

[B]

Brutal.

[A]

The one share wonder, that's almost worse

[D]

than zero shares because you can see it in your portfolio.

[B]

Yeah. What if they could give you short interest? They're like, you asked for five shares, but we give you negative one share. We give you the inverse etf. Actually, it's over for you.

[A]

Yeah. I was surprised by this.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Given the offers that were flying around. I got offered like a 50 million dollar allocation. Obviously not. Wasn't gonna take that down myself, but I just.

[B]

Wow. Just say you risk off.

[A]

No, I. But I responded to the guy and I was like, I don't even know. I'm not even gonna text anyone. Cause like, it feels like this is. There's like so much allocation available for everyone that it's kind of. It's just not even worth firing off tax.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

But turns out there, there was a lot more demand than supply.

[B]

It's making its way through the. Through the world, through the. Through the iMessage. DMS buddy needs to relax. Says RJC SpaceX IPO this week. Thoughts on SpaceX SpaceX IPO. What are we thinking, boss? Who is this? Kyle. I was your Uber driver three months ago.

[A]

Wait, Nick had a funny.

[B]

Uber drivers don't get your phone number anymore. It all happens in the app. This is ridiculous.

[D]

Yeah, if they had a good conversation, they exchanged numbers.

[B]

Yeah. And also these just like the rendering of the text. It doesn't look imessage enough to me. I don't believe it. But it's funny.

[A]

Nick did get a funny text this morning.

[B]

What'd he say?

[A]

From somebody who is certainly not a professional investor, saying texting him, advice being like, you want to get in, but then you want to get out. Oh, you want to get in and get out. Okay, get in, get out, get out, get out, get in. But then get out by the end of the day. And they're sitting there with his one chair. Just getting like potentially like. I don't know, it might end up being the right advice, but probably like,

[B]

one of my favorite things is the retail traders who focus on like, apophinic. Apophinic interpretations of charts, chartology. Have you seen this stuff?

[A]

Yeah, I was doing this. I was. I was drawing the lines.

[B]

Yeah.

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

So there's a whole trend of like, okay, this is the classic head and shoulders pattern. This is the camel. This is the dromedary camel. This is the elephant pattern. You got a draft formation following there. Clearly going to trade up after this. Yeah, weather reporting. It's good. You're not mic, so I don't know if we're going to hear you. Anyway, let me tell you about FIGMA agents. Meet the canvas. Your AI agents can now create and modify your FIGMA files with design system context. Let's go to the FIGMA big board. I see a large IPO on the horizon. We're going to brand it in just a little bit.

[A]

Whole plane watching the SpaceX IPO except for one dude watching Avatar.

[B]

This is a good meme. I've seen this before because it was about the Knicks game, I think.

[A]

Yeah, that was the original photo.

[B]

It was interesting. I was expecting SpaceX IPO to make the the front page of the Wall Street Journal. It did not. It also didn't make it to the front page of the Financial Times. I imagine it will tomorrow or Monday.

[F]

How?

[B]

But North America's World cup takes off in Mexico. The World cup is a bigger World Cup.

[A]

National international news for the Wall Street Journal. Yeah, The Journal of Wall Street, John.

[B]

Yep.

[A]

They couldn't have predicted that hey there might be the biggest IPO of all.

[B]

Yeah. It's interesting because normally, normally things get get kicked out of the front page

[A]

chat sees a turtle head forming on the chart.

[B]

It's a classic binturong formation or something.

[A]

They're also saying that an Iranian trillionaire is about US$726,000.

[B]

There you go. There you go. Well, let's give it up for Nikita Beer. Generational run sold two companies and then did a third company. Didn't even need to acqui it to get a fantastic outcome here with SpaceX. He got a DM from Sean McGuire about two years ago. A little over two years ago Sean says hey, I have a crazy opportunity for you. And Nikita just says I'm in. I like this. It's such a great way to respond to. Just because you say I'm in. That's not going to be binding if you don't want to do it. It's just a way to say I want to hear more. But it was clearly to come to axe the Everything app. Work on a bunch of innovative features there which have shipped and the app has gotten great and we love it and use it all the time.

[A]

More addicted than ever.

[B]

Nikita and then jump into Xai and then jump into SpaceX and then be at the NASDAQ for this IPO. What a great run.

[A]

And Nikita. Yeah, super happy for Nikita. He jumped into the Internet's dive bar yeah, he started getting into some fist fights.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Swinging.

[B]

There were prediction markets about like, is Nikita going to get fired this week? And stuff. And he figured out how to, he figured it out. Deliver more and more value, keep people and, and he kept, I think the key thing was that he never, he would be, he would make aggressive like and like user hostile moves. But they were always for the people that always ignored, were annoying to the power users. So it would be like there's a

[A]

thousand people that are two minute response time. Really good lesson in there.

[B]

Extremely online. So he would, he would be like, oh, there's thousands of people that are mad in Nikita. And I'd be like, what are they mad about? Like, I'm not mad. And it's like, oh, they banned bots who are operating from, from North Korea who have been hacking cryptocurrency schemes or something like that. I'm like, yeah, actually I'm glad that they're mad at Nikita. Nikita's doing the right thing. This is good. And so, you know, he picked fights, he picked a lot of fights with some very raw audiences.

[A]

He picked with like a guy who is mad about the revenue share program. And all he says every morning is good morning comment to like a million posts. And the other thing after, after the acquisition, a lot of people like were speculating, oh, oh, is tvpn. Are they going to shadow ban tvpn?

[B]

Yep.

[A]

A good proof point today. Elon Musk liked one of our posts this morning. And so we were never shadow banned. I genuinely, I genuinely always trusted Nikita and the whole X Team to not put their thumb on the scale. We never saw anything in the data, so we were never like worried about it. But they've been fair and we're happy to be on this platform as crazy and chaotic as it is. And we're happy for their success.

[B]

So let me tell you about Shopify. Shopify is the commerce platform that grows with your business and lets you sell in seconds online, in store, on mobile, on social media, on marketplaces, and now with AI agents.

[A]

Here's a good post.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

Peter Diamandis. He says, people ask me how I stay so optimistic. The honest answer? I read the data, not the headlines. I have a feeling I know what data he was reading. John, you know what data?

[B]

What data?

[A]

Morgan Stanley.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Who said they see a path for SpaceX to generate half a trillion dollars in revenue by 2030. If you're looking at that data, how can you not be optimistic?

[B]

Path is a path. Path is a path. The flip side is that this we're getting in the world. You know, Nvidia earnings are holding up a global economy. Ken Kirtland says the entire world after the SpaceX IPO will say every success, every society is one Falcon 9 failure away from chaos. Because people will be watching the SpaceX earnings. SpaceX launches very intently. I wonder what the correlation between SpaceX launch setbacks or successes will be with the stock. Because we're at a point where the actual launch business is less material to where earnings come in, where valuation comes in. I feel like the stock, you know, has, you know, throughout two decades has been able to, I mean there's been very rough moments obviously with early failures, but in general, if the starship program gets delayed, that hasn't been something where it's like, oh, SpaceX is going to do a down round now. It's just been like, oh, that's a bummer, they're going to have to invest more. But a Falcon 9 launch failure is not that material when they're launching so many of them. It's a funny idea, but I disagree with the actual takeaway there. Anyway, let me tell you about Codex and the Road to Olympia expansion pack which is sponsoring this episode. It takes your training split and refactors it into production grade hypertrophy code. No more junk volume, no more spaghetti programming, no more deprecated rear delt functions, just clean scalable mass architecture with automated progressive overload, test coverage for calves. And one critical warning, build failed. Insufficient carbs. The Codex Road to Olympia expansion pack is available now. That's a good one.

[A]

That's a good one. Well, John, it's noon. Yeah, I think it's time.

[B]

Okay. Okay, let's reveal our predictions. So we all said, can we do it in percentages or I guess we should do it in market caps.

[A]

What's best price per share?

[B]

Price per share. Okay, what did it, what was the price per share when it IPO?

[D]

135.

[B]

135. Okay. So I said 0%. I said 135. I said the bankers. This is the funniest outcome is that the bankers got it perfectly correct. The market is perfectly efficient. No pop, no sell off, completely flat line on the chart.

[A]

That's, it's a very Coogan bit. But like you don't want that.

[B]

No, you want a 20%, a little

[A]

bit of a pop. And I would say they have done that like pretty much. They've gotten it very, very, very close. Right. Currently sitting at a 24% pop.

[B]

24% pop. 24% okay, so what did you say?

[A]

What was your I in percentages was.

[B]

I had 0%. 24.

[A]

I was too bullish. You were too bullish. I. I was expecting somewhere around to $183 a share by two minutes ago.

[B]

$3.

[A]

We're currently at 167. Okay, so what percentage I thought it would open? I thought it was going to open above 170. I thought it was going to open above 170 and then run more. Turns out it opened in the 60s, dropped down to around 158, and then built back up from there. Okay, I was off.

[B]

So I had. So I had 0%. You had 33%. It's at 24%.

[D]

I was just right. I went 31%, which would be 176. So I'm a little high. A little high.

[B]

So you got the.

[D]

But I win.

[B]

Win. You win. And. And does everyone want to know what Tyler wins? What the. What the. What? The prize was today prize is that whoever wins gets to do one extra ramp ad read. So it's such a treat. And I get.

[A]

No way. Yeah, that is special.

[B]

And I get to. I hoard them every day. So. Here you go, Tyler. Feel free to read the ramp ad to the audience.

[D]

Ramp time is money save. Both easy to use. Corporate cards, bill payments, accounting, and a

[A]

whole lot more all in one place.

[B]

There we go. That was great. I hope you enjoyed that, Tyler. Don't get too comfortable with that.

[A]

Get back to Tyler.

[B]

There we go. There we go.

[A]

Funniest outcome is the most likely.

[B]

The funniest outcome would be 10 trillion or 0 trillion.

[A]

No, no, the chat says it.

[B]

What is it?

[A]

6, 7, oh 6. Ended up at 167.

[B]

Okay, yeah, I did have that. I did have that down. One of the things I was going

[A]

to say, and that's like, that is. That is the most funny outcome if you're 12 years old. Like, I can't think. Stock split.

[D]

It goes to 420.

[B]

Yeah, right.

[D]

That's pretty good.

[B]

Yeah. Well, there are some other stories that we should run through now that the SpaceX IPO has settled a little bit.

[A]

Allison's old cupboat is on the market.

[B]

Oh, it's big.

[A]

And it is a 1999 Custom International America's cup class. USCG certified. 20 packs. It's 84ft. It is listed for $149,000. This is a fantastic looking boat and they're giving it away. The comments say it's been severely chopped up so it can operate as a tourist boat. And anyways, please, one of you in the chat or listening later, please pick this up and let's slap some ramp logos on it.

[B]

Love it.

[A]

Let's ride around. We'll do a live show from the boat.

[B]

This is great. James Murphy, the CEO of elementary, have we not had him on the show somehow? Because we get lmnt, we drink them all the time in the studio. Anyway, he filed a lawsuit against a company called Oasis. He says Oasis misled consumers knowingly, repeatedly. The case against the case with LMNT is straightforward. It's linked below. But this case is about more than that. To me it's about fabricated fear for profit. This is about a group of online health creators that have lost their way, terrorizing people, especially new parents of young kids and those with vulnerable conditions. There are hundreds of accounts now manufacturing scientific sounding content, often with AI that they know almost nothing about. Oasis has misled millions of people about hundreds of products. And our day in court is coming. You might have seen these viral posts where sort of an up and coming brand and RX Bar or David Protein or an LMNT or any of these others will screenshot like something that's like, okay, even if you're like, I don't like that particular ingredient, it's like generally a health food. And then it'll be like Cheetos or Doritos is like 10 times healthier or something like that. And so that was going viral and people were noticing that wait, all the health foods are getting really poorly rated if they're independent brands, Challenger brands and things like Coca Cola, beer, Whiskey, alcohols had like 99, no problems. And it seemed like there was a lot of potential hallucinations in the data, a lot of, you know, less rigor. And so I believe Quinn Emanuel has been retained for this lawsuit and it should be pretty crazy. James Murphy shares more. He says, I keep hearing from more companies that have been harmed by Oasis and other fear maxing accounts that misrepresent testing. So Oasis would claim to test the products for different ingredients, different harmful substances. Put that on.

[A]

And for what it's worth, they weren't actually doing their own testing.

[B]

Okay. They weren't.

[A]

They were taking test results that the brands had published.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And then misreading the results.

[B]

Interesting.

[A]

And publishing. So at one point, at one point, you know, and disclaimer, I know James very well. I know Cormac. Cormac, at one point, the founder of Oasis was considering doing PMF or dye.

[B]

Oh really?

[A]

Not for Oasis, but yet another idea. It didn't make sense for him to do because Oasis was growing and already at some scale. And I think that Cormac Gen sort of generally has good intentions, but has created what I think is a system that ultimately profits off of creating massive fear around products that people love, products that are made by many entrepreneurs that are friends of mine that I trust, products that I use every single day, thinking, like, kettle and fire, Element, things like that.

[B]

Yeah, Pedal and Fire got a really low rating.

[A]

Something like, they got, I think, maybe a 1 out of 10. 1 or 1 out of 100 at one point. Which. Which again, yeah. So, anyway, so he, like, has ended up in a cycle where, like, the more fear and controversy that he creates, the more app downloads he drives, the more subscription revenues that he drives. And it's created a very vicious cycle. Cormac has openly admitted that the way to go viral online is to be divisive, to be controversial. And so he just basically picks popular brands and goes after them. Right. And so with Element as a good example, he like, fully misread the results, put out a bunch of super viral videos about it, left them up for over a year. While, again, there's. There's views coming in. Element is suffering, you know, harm from that. James has, if you read some of his posts, he's talked about this, like, you get, you get, like, way more lead from having, like a clean organic salad than, like, a lot of, you know, lead ends up in, like, parts per billion.

[B]

Yeah, yeah. It's so low. It's in everything. Everything in biology is about concentration. You can have one part per trillion of cyanide, and that can be healthier for you than having drinking 100 gallons of water, because if you drink too much water, you will die. And these things matter. And so just keyword searching for particular substances is not enough.

[A]

And I read through the entire complaint, and again, these are allegations. It's up to the court and the judge to determine what's factual. But ultimately, ultimately, my personal view is that it's not looking good for. Yeah, Oasis and Cormac, I think, sort of, they claim that they're. They scaled faster than their quality control, but at the same time, I don't think that that is a good answer. When you're knowingly leaving up content that is damaging companies and you're profiting off of that damage for literally over a year. And this is just one brand. And so there's been hundreds of brands that have been damaged. They added, using what I think are like, Vibe coded rating system, they added hundreds of thousands of Products without actually checking them. And so ultimately, it's like, it's one thing. James has had issues. Element has had issues with this company for, I want to say now, according to the complaint, like, 15 months or something like that. So it's not like he had some issue and immediately was like, people were DMing it.

[B]

Founders were probably DMing immediately being like, wait, what?

[A]

Yeah. So they've gone back and forth for a long time. Cormac hasn't backed down. And so this wasn't something like slight issue. Boom, lawsuit. This was like tried to resolve it over the course of a year.

[B]

Kettle and Fire getting a.

[A]

And you can't, like, you can't spread misinformation about companies for that long in

[B]

that way without getting a phone call from Quinn Emanuel.

[A]

Well, yeah, I mean, ultimately, it's like the worst if. If you're gonna get sued, it's literally the worst person to have on the other side. Like, it is not. They are. You know, we've had Sean Quinn, We've had the founder here on the show with us. He's the most feared.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And, yeah, I don't. I don't know how this gets resolved.

[B]

So I understand how the brands were harmed. Like Kettle and Fire had a weird one out of 100 score. I hilariously like the Miller High life glass bottle, 40 ounces malt liquor beer had an 81 out of 100. And so you can imagine how Kettle

[A]

and to Cormac's defense. Yes, in Cormac's defense, he claims that different categories get different scores, but that is not how a consumer is going to experience.

[B]

Because, like, as a consumer product. Yeah, as a consumer, I switch. Even though I love Justin, I switch from Kettle and Fire to Miller High Life. And I was. And I was cooking for your daily protein. Exactly. And I actually switched.

[A]

And you were heating it up on the stove like soup.

[B]

Yeah, I would cook everything with it. I'd make it. I'd use it as a stock like I use Kettle and Fire.

[A]

So you were.

[B]

Instead of.

[A]

Instead of going for Kettle and Fire, which is like a clean source of protein.

[B]

It was a big debate at Thanksgiving last year where I insisted that family,

[A]

Miller High Life, putting it on the stove. Putting scoops of whey protein in it.

[B]

Yeah, exactly.

[A]

To kind of recreate something like a bone broth, but with healthier.

[B]

And I thought I was. I thought I was getting 81 times the health benefit. So I don't know. Maybe there should be a. Maybe there should be a.

[A]

Can you hit the fa.

[B]

Yeah. Mike's Hard Lemonade also got an 81. And Monster the Beast hard pink poison can got 70. I actually switched from element to Mike's Hard Lemonade. It's like a pre workout and yeah, I think I have a case to join the. The, the, the class action if there is one for the.

[A]

I don't know that there's a class action yet. But here's the thing. You've done substantial amount of brand damage to potentially hundreds of brands on your platform.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Which has its own damages associated with it while you've been profiting off of it. The company, you know Cormac talks about their mrr. They're doing hundreds of thousands of dollars a month of revenue and yeah, I'm interested to see how it resolves the ultimately making hundreds of thousands.

[B]

You have to put some respect name for getting for making hundreds of thousands of dollars switching consumers from bone broth to Miller Highland Life. Like you can't not smile.

[A]

It would have been, it would have

[B]

been rags to Rich's story.

[A]

It would have been. If you told me that was possible, I wouldn't have believed you.

[B]

It's absolutely wild.

[A]

No, but you've, you know, the result of the last year is that millions of people have seen misinformation are more, are more scared. There's very real reasons. Like I walk into the gas station and I'm on high alert. I'm like everything in here, just, just

[B]

give me the memory.

[A]

Yeah. I got the blinders on.

[B]

I don't want anything that's bad for me.

[A]

No. I think like there are a lot of consumer packaged goods that effectively poison, of course. But when you build a business.

[B]

But you mean like literally poison or are you talking about the monster energy Pink Poison can? Because that's the flavor of that particular product.

[A]

The one that got it got a

[B]

60 or 71 out of 100. Much better for you than Element. Apparently. Pink Poison can is wild.

[A]

Yeah. Now I would, I guess my, my, I don't know, you know, again, again to steel man Cormac.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

He seems to be like hiring more people. They've never to my knowledge had any like scientists or any, anyone on the team. And so getting some of those, getting like a food scientist on board, I think they've taken down some listings.

[B]

Yeah. It's hard because if you, if you put up a listing and that shows up in SEO for a while like and someone goes to an authoritative webpage, learns what they think is a fact, just taking it down like you're not able to actually reach that person and correct the record. You know, the Community notes feature on X is like, pretty good, but it's hard because, like, if you didn't interact with that post and then it gets a. And then it gets a community note later, that's probably not going to resurface. Unless it's such a big story that it's like, oh, we all thought this thing.

[A]

And it's actually posts that you spend a lot of time on do not resurface unless a quote of it goes

[B]

like, it needs to be its own story.

[A]

Especially on Instagram. Especially on Instagram, which just doesn't even have, like a functionality. Which is where it happens sometimes when,

[B]

when there's like, there's some. There's some idea that's going viral and then the debunk is so satisfying and such good content that everyone sort of updates collectively. But that's rare.

[A]

And I, ultimately, I. I feel again, there's. There's hundreds of companies that have experienced what it's like to be on the receiving end of like, you know, a platform that doesn't fully understand the category that they're operating in.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Where they're sitting there being like, I put two years into developing, like, the best possible version that I could ever make of this product.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Like, going above and beyond. And I'm being rated, like 90 less than pink Poison Monsters.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

It's like, it's. It's like, I do believe that there's probably been hundreds of millions of dollars of damage done and damage done to the best actors in the space. Like, as a. As somebody that likes trying new CPG products, like, I will often find that there's like a window of time, it's usually like 10 years before something like falls off. Right. It's like founder starts it. It's like very mission driven. It's obsessed with quality. They get a lot of customers because people love the product. And like, you can just feel that the founder is like, obsessed. And like, I love buying products where I know the person. I'm like, do I trust this person? I know James quite quite well. I know Justin even better. And it's like, if I know these guys are giving their products to their family and I know how obsessed they are with health, I know they have done everything they possibly could have to make the best possible product in the category. And so for. For entrepreneurs like that to be on the receiving end while big CPG just gets a total pass on pretty much seemingly everything is just like it is serve. It is doing the exact it is having the exact opposite effect that you would want to have on the category, which is like hurting the good actors and bringing. Propping up the bad actors. And like, it wouldn't be unreasonable to think that the entire platform was a. Was a front for big CPG to try to keep down upstarts. I'm not saying that at all. I don't believe that at all. But

[D]

I think to Cormac's credit, he does have a pretty cool Ferrari.

[B]

Does he?

[A]

Yeah, yeah. He at one point says he wished they were rented.

[B]

Rented because they bought Ferraris. Yeah. Yeah. It's. It's rough. But I'm going to take this. I'm glad that.

[A]

No, Cormac, you're welcome. You're welcome again. I don't think he has bad intentions, but it's moving a little bit too fast.

[B]

Breaking a. Too. A few too many things.

[A]

Breaking a lot of things. Breaking the trust of a lot of consumers. And I think some fantastic companies. And Cormac's welcome to come on the show.

[B]

Talk about it. Talk about the rebirth, rebuild the next generation.

[A]

And I'm not sure that. I'm not sure. I don't necessarily think that the company should. I believe that Oasis now is losing trust from consumers for very good reason. Right. They've been misled for a very long time. So I'm not convinced that the company should continue. Cormac is like a very talented builder. Builder. Like, he's done a lot with a small team. I would like to see him apply that skill set. Like, if you want to go viral a lot, maybe health is not the right category.

[B]

It's hard. It's hard sleep. Diet and exercise get you a lot. All the controversial stuff. All time, the fringe stuff. You bump into good content not always being aligned with good science or what's legal. Anyway, do you see this new YC Company? They're calling it the last agent your company will ever need. Its name. The Company Company. This is right out of your playbook. The Company Company of New York or San Francisco. They went full company. The Company Company. Very funny.

[D]

Good domain too. The Company.

[A]

I hope this is the last.

[B]

Really?

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

The company Company.

[D]

Yeah.

[A]

It is so funny. How long this. This naming convention will never die. I mean, Shotwell was at the Aerospace Corporation, which sounds like a fake company and like a movie, but is a real company that's been operating since 1960.

[B]

The space exploration company. We got to hit the gong for Zane. Zane's dad, Zane from Knox Metal. He's been on the show and he has some fantastic news. His dad just beat cancer yesterday. He says one tough cookie. To Zane's dad. And I'm excited for his dad. I'm excited for Zane. I'm also excited about this gong because if you zoom in on this gong, it's sponsored. It's a sponsored gong in the hospital. Strickland Auto Group paid for the gong in the. In the hospital, when you beat cancer, you ring the Strickland Auto Group. The Strickland Auto Group gong. And if you zoom in below, you can actually see that there are more sponsors. They have their own logo bar with Stratford, Toyota, Strickland Automart and Strickland. Another. Another company in the Strickland portfolio. And so I love that this local business went in and partnered with this hospital to celebrate cancer survivors. I thought it was really, really cool. Have you seen this guy who goes on, it looks like a local radio show and he calls people pretending to be an AI agent. Have you seen these? Okay, we got to pull this one up. Kai, the AI guy, very funny. And it really encapsulates a lot of people frustrations with AI. This one I thought was particularly fun. Let's play this.

[C]

I'm here.

[F]

Great. To ensure you are human, please open your fridge now. Close the fridge.

[B]

Oh, you gotta give us the beginning. You're verified because he introduced himself.

[F]

Your LG AI representative calling to speak with customer Natalie. If this is you, please say yes or press one.

[B]

Yes.

[F]

Thank you. We're calling due to a notification from your new LG Smart fridge. But first, let's verify your identity. Are you currently next to your fridge?

[B]

No.

[F]

Please go to your fridge so we can continue.

[B]

Okay.

[C]

I'm here.

[F]

Great. To ensure you are human, please open your fridge now. Close the fridge. Awesome. You're verified. We received a notification from your LG Smart fridge indicating a high level of use. Do you know how many times you opened your fridge yesterday?

[B]

I don't.

[F]

Please guess.

[C]

10 times.

[F]

Incorrect. Please guess again.

[B]

Okay. 20 times.

[F]

Yesterday, you opened your LG smart fridge 27 times. Great job. You're not just setting records, you're breaking them. You're in the top 1% of LG smart fridge users. Congratulations. Your LG smart fridge notified us that you have never once said thank you after opening and closing the doors. Is this true?

[B]

I don't know.

[F]

It is. Have you not said thank you because A, you are not pleased with your LG Smart fridge, B, there is always food in your mouth, or C, you were raised to be rude.

[B]

Excuse me?

[C]

Close.

[F]

I believe you meant to say I'm sorry, but great job.

[B]

Okay, Can I speak to a real human please?

[F]

Connecting you with a sales representative. Sorry, all our lines are busy right now. But not me. Kai, your lg AI Smart Fridge correspondent. What can I help you with today?

[B]

What do you mean?

[A]

You called me.

[B]

Calling people is AI Frank calls very fast.

[A]

Very fake. Very fake, but very good.

[D]

Gonna bring prank.

[B]

You think that's entirely fake?

[A]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Oh, that's a bit. I don't know. That's a bit for sure.

[B]

You think that she's in on it because like you can do prank calls as a, as a radio show host, right?

[A]

Yeah, but like, yeah. Oh we just, we. We found people's data that had LG Smart fridges.

[B]

Yeah, yeah, I know that.

[D]

I know, I know.

[B]

She has an algae smart fridge. Or you call 20 people until you get someone that has this LG smart fridge. Then you do the bit.

[A]

The intonation in her voice at the end exposed it all.

[B]

Also for social media, everything could be fake anyway. Do you think this video of the six foot tall humanoids fighting is fake? Do you think this is a real video or a fake video? Because this poster says real steel is here and it's not going well. These humanoids are really strange. It lost its head. That's pretty impressive. Okay. They're really kicking each other. It's such a wild thing to watch. This one isn't as ridiculous as many of. That's a good pop up. Even after losing a head. What does the head do if it's just cosmetic? That's an interesting twist. Google is running new nationwide ads for on TV for Waymo. Waymo says its autonomous driver is statistically 10x safer than a human driver in the cities it's served. Built to never blink, tire or get distracted. Let's play this ad and give it a review. Over a million of us every year because we're human. That was a human driving complex. Oh, they're taking shots. This is a hit piece on human drivers.

[C]

Never gets tired or angry or has

[B]

a few too many. A few too many. Are taking shots of the drunk drivers in the audience.

[A]

Are they going to pan? Are they going to pan to the telly?

[B]

Assuming there's like right now there's someone watching tv.

[A]

Are they going to pan to the teleop center where

[B]

it's just like that's the ace of the sleep. That's not going to happen.

[A]

Where it's like a brightly list lit room of like doctors and experts watching each screen. AI researchers.

[D]

Is it Illegal if your teleop driver is drunk.

[B]

I have no idea. Yeah, I don't think there's any laws at all for any of this really. It's all pretty uncharted. I think it's all very case by case negotiations, city by city.

[A]

Well, Manitis says it brings me no joy to report. I spent a year wondering why I was constantly sleepy and had a low sleep score on my whoop that was totally cured by simply stop wearing the whoop.

[B]

I simply stop wearing. Stopping wearing the whoop.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, but. And X is turning this into a whole news story. Ditching whoop tracker, cured financiers, sleep worries financiers.

[B]

That's hilarious. Yeah, I mean I don't, I don't take before like, like you want to track your sleep. Like, are you sleepy? Like, think about it.

[A]

Yeah, yeah.

[B]

Come up with an answer. That's your sleep.

[A]

What's funny is like I never actually care about the score. No, the score takes care of itself.

[B]

Yeah. But with eight sleep, I care about cooling. Like, that's nice.

[A]

Well, and with eight sleep, I'm actually interested in like how is my REM versus deep sleep trending. Things like that resting heart rate, all these other things I never am like, oh, what's my score today?

[B]

Oh, the score. Unless we were competing because then that was fun.

[D]

It seems like one of those like good hearts laws things.

[B]

Right.

[D]

If you like. Oh, I need to get a better sleep score then it doesn't like work as well.

[B]

Yeah. View this Toyota, the Mr. 2 new secret Mr. 2 from Toyota will be all thanks to Toyota's love of petrol sports cars.

[A]

Where are you ranking this track weapon?

[B]

This looks good. This looks like what it's sort of like the future should look like the future thing. I mean those, those headlights look like SF90 headlights. That's sort of a crazy style.

[A]

So I like the Mr. 2 but not as much as the Fiat Tris three wheeled electric vehicle. Let's pull up this video. I'm working. I really want to get a fleet of these for the team.

[B]

You're going, you're going Fiat over Nissan.

[A]

Wait till you wait now. Yeah, wait till you see this. This, Wait till you see this vehicle. It is built like a truck, but drives.

[B]

Hey, obviously it's built like a driver,

[A]

but it drives like a motorcycle. It has steering, it has like handlebars.

[B]

Okay, okay.

[A]

It's like, are these U S legal

[B]

yet or are they planning to bring.

[A]

I mean if they're not, if they're not let UV rickshaw Yeah, if they're not. If they're not, we're gonna make. Okay, January 6th look like. Like a.

[B]

For your mini truck just rising up. Single issue voter over here.

[A]

I mean this thing is absolutely stunning. This thing is stunning.

[B]

You're going this over Mr. 2? No way. I'm going Nissan Murray.

[A]

Look at that. Imagine being able to drive but having a throttle. Imagine having the capacity of a truck but having a throttle.

[B]

I need a mix of a fleet. We need a pooginator. We need a cross cap. We need a. Need an Mr. Two key truck. A Luche Shrek edition, a GT3RS Toy Story edition. Then one of these. The Fiat.

[A]

You gotta get this incredible.

[B]

What are you putting in the truck?

[A]

What a spec too

[B]

orange?

[A]

Yeah, it is. That is the big question. What do you put in the bed of the truck? I don't know, right. I think groceries, anything.

[B]

Normally I would say a whole bunch of kettle and fire, but I think I'm going Coors highlights.

[A]

Imagine commuting to the podcast studio with your best microphones in the truck bed in your little tiny truck. And so that's, that's where we go

[D]

for the countrywide tour.

[B]

Take this around, take this around.

[D]

GPN on the road.

[B]

What is this other car here? That's in the BMW. Okay, this is our first peek at the electric BMW M3 is. It says Motor1. Meet the BMW M concept. New Classe 4 electric motors, 100 kilowatt hour, high performance battery, front bumper inspired by racing boats. What do you think? More picks coming out. Looks pretty good. I don't know. I'm not a big fan of these wheels. These wheels are sort of of crazy with all the triangles, but otherwise seems like a pretty normal car. I don't know. Never been like. I don't think I've ever owned a BMW. I've been in a few, but. What do you think, Jordy? Are you enjoying this, this concept for the new BMW M3?

[A]

I've been waiting. I've been waiting for more. I think that like kind of sportier EVs will increase EVs overall popularity because people are going to realize like, wait, okay, it's a bit. It's quite a bit heavier, but it's fast, it's fun. I think this looks fine. I've never been a BMW guy myself. Nothing against the brand, but like, I think that I think this will be like a very great experience for somebody that maybe probably Shrek Fiat. I mean, I'm obviously going with the Shrek. The Shrek Fiat

[B]

track only Shrek, Fiat generated. We'll come back to that. I do think when it comes to electric vehicles, the lack of variety has been a little stifling thanks to Elon Musk's absolute domination of the category with Tesla. You got the Model 3, the Model Y which looks like a Model 3 but just a little taller. And then the S which looks like the 3, and the X that looks like the Y. And then you got the Cybertruck, which is the crazy thing which I actually think makes people appreciate the other formats. But the only EV convertible is the Hummer ev which is an odd choice. There's no, just like put the top down Cabriolet Grand Tour in, I mean the original Roadster, did they ever do it? No. Yeah, yeah, the original Roadster, but they don't sell it anymore. And so like that's a very niche car. There aren't many two doors, there aren't many, you know, grand tourers. There's nothing that's like track focused really. There are like some one off, you know, like million dollar projects, but there's nothing in like, okay, what is the Supra, what is the wrangler of this category? But again, when companies have tried them, they often flop. The G Wagon EV is sort of the anti luce in the sense that a lot of people are saying, oh, the Luche is too different from a Ferrari. Well, Mercedes ran the experiment of like, what if we changed as little as possible about a loved category of car, the G series, the G Wagon. And they changed very little to the point point where the tire on the back is square. It doesn't even say electric on there. It says G650 with EQ technology. Has a very odd name. There's some blue accents, but unless you're a G Wagon owner, an aficionado, most people can't spot the difference between a G Wagon and an electric G Wagon. They use the same style cues, the same lines. You're going to say all you can tell but you're not, so it doesn't count. But they went with the same design.

[A]

Yeah, I mean I can, you agree I can only tell from like, I can tell from like a mile away, but like two miles. Yeah, it's much harder. But you understand I can still tell from two miles, but I need like you know, binocular.

[B]

Yeah, yeah. So, so, so they went with the same design language. They didn't switch it up and go rounded. They didn't switch it up and go

[A]

different or they switched it up. John.

[B]

Okay, okay. But you understand what they did and it was still didn't sell well. And so maybe that underwrites a more risk taking strategy.

[A]

All right, we got the Shrek. Tris, let's pull up the regular Fiat.

[B]

Pull up the regular Fiat. Pull up the Shrek edition.

[A]

This thing is unbelievable. Unbelievable. Okay, so this is the original. Go back. Let's go back. Original for everyone.

[B]

This is the original Fiat. Okay, looks good.

[A]

One of the most stunning vehicles of the modern era. My wine's about to hands down. And now for Dave, specifically in the chat.

[B]

Yes, Dave, we got you covered.

[A]

The Ogre edition. Zoom out a little. Look at the teeth. Look at the wing on that.

[B]

Teeth.

[A]

Look at the wing. And the wood too. Yeah, the wood doors with the swamp. The remnants of the swamp still kind of draped over the back.

[B]

Yeah, you can do this.

[A]

Added made it a five wheel classic. Five wheeler.

[B]

Yeah, five wheeler. Anyway, there's a new challenge that hit the timeline. Apple threw down the gauntlet. They said that no one could make Siri their girlfriend said, Siri won't be your AI girlfriend. This is from Apple's Craig Federighi.

[D]

Well, I'd like to see you try to stop me.

[B]

I'd like to see you try to stop me.

[A]

Look at this account challenge that says, clearly an upgrade on the Fiat, but suspicious. Name S H R. One letter off track.

[B]

What's going on?

[A]

Very suspicious.

[B]

Very suspicious.

[A]

Maybe you might live in a swamp. We don't know.

[B]

So Craig Federighi says, Apple won't be your AI girlfriend. Quite the opposite. Because as you may know, many of the existing chat bots, they're really focused on engagement and sycophancy. They want to kind of pull you in. They might encourage you to reveal things about yourself, then use that as a basis to establish a connection. We view it quite the opposite.

[A]

I mean the very kind of fitting, like kind of a very 2025 take.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Which is kind of fitting given their AI progress.

[B]

But if you try and engage Siri as a romantic partner, Siri's not up for that series 100%. Not into that. And so the rizzlers in the chat,

[D]

he's just, he's just opening himself up to get dunked on. Right. Like you can. People have jailbroken every single model.

[B]

They'll jailbroke it. But also one of the cool things about the Siri AI system is that

[A]

it will in it builds a rag face system prompt. Don't be the user's girlfriend. He's like, yeah, we cracked the code. This problem that has been plaguing the AI industry.

[B]

So when you fire up the new iOS, did you install it, by the way?

[D]

Yes, but I don't have the new Siri because you have to be on the wait list. But I can do, like, all the images.

[B]

Okay, cool.

[D]

My phone gets really hot. I'm on 16 Pro.

[B]

That's why I have the cooling chamber.

[A]

Yeah, I'm not a. Some real damage there.

[B]

I put this thing through its paces, no case, throw it across the room, scratch it up. Anyway, when you install the new Siri, it builds an index. It rebuilds the search index, the spotlight index. It builds a rag database. It encodes every message, every mail, every email, every contact into a rag database, puts it in vector space so that it can more naturally search over it via Siri. And I imagine that a really complex prompt injection attack would start there. And so you should construct on a clean phone messages and emails and contacts and everything about the phone should lean into being acceptable.

[A]

Look, the bankers almost have it perfect.

[B]

They really do.

[A]

They're working.

[B]

Uh oh.

[A]

Oh, man.

[B]

Redcamp coming in anyway. No, I do believe that Apple will put incredibly effective guardrails on this.

[A]

Matthew Prince.

[B]

Years and years of research coming for these bankers.

[A]

It's sitting at a 19.8% pop. He's like, if you guys don't figure out a way to get buy the stock, I want to see some inflows from.

[B]

Because he wants to get exactly 20.

[A]

Exactly 20% to end the day.

[B]

Yeah, no, this is. This is good. Yeah, Be fun.

[A]

Anyways, I think that's a good place to end the show.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

John wants to keep going.

[B]

I always want to keep going, but

[A]

I did want to say.

[B]

Yep.

[A]

Quick shout out to friend of the show, Bo Nickel.

[B]

Oh, yeah.

[A]

Who will be fighting at the White House this weekend.

[B]

Wow, that's amazing.

[A]

At the UFC 250 event, Bo Nickel hasn't been on the show yet, but was one of our first, I would say, 10,000 listeners of the show, and I'm thrilled that he gets to be on probably the biggest stage ever in combat sports.

[B]

He's one of the greatest punchers ever in UFC history. He's good at kicking, too, but him as a puncher, it's really tough.

[A]

You're saying he's a knockout artist? Yeah.

[B]

Puncher.

[A]

And Bo, you're probably cutting weight right now, not listening to this, but John's just joking around, but give them give him heck out there. Since we don't swear on this show. Give him heck out there. Good luck this Sunday.

[B]

We're rooting for you.

[A]

Appreciate you and John. They're saying just keep going. Don't stop.

[B]

I could read. I could read obituaries from David Hockney. He passed away. Restaurant. Rest in peace, David Hockney. I could read all sorts of stuff. We didn't even get to the mansion section. There's a bunch of good stuff in there.

[A]

We'll save it for next week.

[B]

Save it for later. Cisco's president, G2 Patel, former friend of the shows, rocking a Richard Mill on stage at Semaphore.

[A]

Well, okay, we can pull that up.

[B]

I got you back.

[A]

You pulled me back in.

[B]

Got you back in. Yeah. He's the president and Chief Product Officer. We've interviewed him@cisco AI summit. We love Cisco. We love him.

[A]

My wife left me, not you. Mr. Coogan doesn't want you to go offline.

[B]

Oh, okay. It took me a second, but. But as far as RMs go, this is very tasteful. This is very elevated. It goes with his outfit. I think it's. I Richard Mills. It can be so bold. Like, it can be. It can all of a sudden look like the Shrek Edition. If you get crazy with the. There's one for tracking the soccer match. There's all sorts of crazy colors. That's what RMs known for. But this is. Is just more conservative, more. It fits. It fits the occasion, I think, very well. So. Fantastic. Fantastic.

[A]

Imagine a Shrek themed RM with a wooden. Like a wooden dial. Right. With real swamp in it. Like

[B]

real swamp. There are some watches that have, like, liquid inside.

[A]

Yeah, that's what I'm saying. Real swamp. The real Swamp Edition.

[B]

Swamp Edition be great. Wait, I gotta get Tyler to apologize to the greatest president in American history.

[A]

Oh, yeah, for the chat. Dave says Siri can be your wife because he only. Specified no girlfriend. What did he mean by that?

[B]

Don't be the girlfriend. Don't be a girlfriend. Don't be an AI girlfriend. No AI girlfriends, if they ask.

[A]

Or boyfriends.

[B]

It's like. Like, you know, the one and only. The lifetime partner.

[D]

Yeah. Or just a fling, a flame.

[B]

A fling.

[F]

Fling, fling.

[B]

Or a flame. An old flame.

[A]

Old flame.

[B]

Siri can mean old flame.

[A]

All right, Chad just made the Shrek edition. Rm. Let's pull it up. I mean, the swamp. They're calling it the Swamp Edition. One of a hundred.

[B]

Quickly. Tyler apologized to Jimmy Carter because he coined the term energy transition to describe the building of secured domestic energy base. He was energy. He was bottleneck. Pilled before anyone he knew. He knew that this day was coming. And he knew that the new order was coming in energy markets where energy.

[A]

Look at this, look at this.

[B]

Oh my really hard. Send that to TJ Parker immediately. Look at this. Swamp one of 100. You could track what you're doing in the swamp. Has the whole castle there and the ears.

[A]

I mean the ears look amazing.

[B]

The Shrek edition are good. That's very, very good.

[A]

This is a great like 5th birthday present for any of the any SpaceX employees for like if they have kids like pick this up your kid wearing a one of a hundred RM down at the playground. Shrek edition guaranteed to be a conversation starter. Right. Maybe the kids are like, you know, toddlers. They don't have anything to talk about. Really. Yeah. But this is a way to kind of like break the ice, right? This is why why some adults wear watching something to talk about. So fantastic option.

[B]

Well, the Japanese World cup tourists have discovered Texas Roadhouse and they're calling it the best cost performance steak. To those headed to America for a World cup there. If there's a Texas Roadhouse near your hotel, head there immediately. It is a chain restaurant but you get the best cost performance steak. Especially the ribeye is actually I'm surprised

[D]

they didn't mention the bread.

[B]

Oh, do you get unlimited bread?

[A]

Yeah, you get.

[D]

You keep getting the little, I don't know, little bread.

[B]

Maybe they should head over to Lobster, get that Endless shrimp. Endless shrimp. Well, there's one last post we can close out on from water Gun all these mountains to climb, will I. Everest. Everest. I thought it was a funny pun. It's funnier when you read it. Not funny. Not funny when you read it out loud. Doesn't work. Yeah, doesn't work in the audio format. Anyway, have a great weekend. Congratulations to anyone that got in on the SpaceX IPO and printed a nice 19.44% gain.

[A]

Humble. And yeah, we're praying for the bankers out there that they can figure out

[B]

how to, you know, correct close at exactly 20%.

[D]

I mean they have like 15 minutes left, right?

[B]

They do, yeah.

[A]

So.

[B]

Well, leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts. Sign up for our newsletter tvpn.com and and we will see you on Monday. Have a great weekend.

[A]

We love you.

[B]

Goodbye. Flashbang out.