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- [00:00]
Jordan
You're watching tvpn.
- [00:03]
Tyler
I forgot we were gonna start on horse camp.
- [00:06]
Jordan
How could you forget?
- [00:07]
Tyler
It is.
- [00:08]
Jordan
The horse has a fedora.
- [00:10]
Tyler
Tuesday, October 7, 2025. We are live from the TVPN Ultradome, the Temple of technology, the fortress of.
- [00:16]
Jordan
Finance, the capital de capital.
- [00:20]
Tyler
Fantastic day today. Jordy did get food poisoning yesterday. We went out to. Can we say where we went? Can we say who we were talking to? I don't exactly remember the rules, but.
- [00:30]
Jordan
I don't think we can discuss the discussions. Okay, but I think we can say. We can say that we are with a Mag 7, but if we say.
- [00:37]
Tyler
The event that we were at, then it's obvious who we're talking to.
- [00:40]
Jordan
We had a magnificent evening.
- [00:44]
Tyler
Okay. Yeah, we had a magnificent evening with a magnificent seven. And you could probably just figure out who it is by looking at what events.
- [00:54]
Jordan
I mean, there's a lot of companies in the Mag seven.
- [00:57]
Tyler
Seven of them.
- [00:59]
Jordan
Well, we did get to hang out with David and Ben from Acquired as well, which was super fun. We're gonna have them drop by the studio tomorrow, which I'm looking forward to.
- [01:09]
Tyler
I'm asking them to quickly summarize the full history of every technology company and.
- [01:13]
Jordan
Every luxury goods and every luxury and.
- [01:15]
Tyler
Every company ever actually in Costco, too.
- [01:17]
Jordan
Throw that in quick retail.
- [01:18]
Tyler
One liner on Costco.
- [01:22]
Jordan
Name every person on Costco's team.
- [01:24]
Tyler
Yeah. But we did have a fantastic evening. Although Jordi did get food poisoning, I think.
- [01:29]
Jordan
Ryan Walsh, how did you get food poisoning? Well, with a Mag7 CEO. Good question. There was two types of fish served at dinner.
- [01:37]
Tyler
There were two types.
- [01:38]
Jordan
I indulged in both. That was.
- [01:40]
Tyler
I skipped the fish.
- [01:41]
Jordan
There was that crudo, and then there was.
- [01:43]
Tyler
Oh, yeah, I had a lot of the crudo. The crudo was not the problem. I'm fine. Okay.
- [01:46]
Jordan
Okay.
- [01:47]
Tyler
I'm fine. But I think it was because I had a glass of the Sancerre, the wine, and you did not partake in the wine. And I think the alcohol was punished for it. It served as it. It detoxified my stomach and prevented me from getting sick.
- [02:00]
Jordan
The toxins from the alcohol, it was.
- [02:02]
Tyler
Poisoning the poisoned food instead of poisoning the.
- [02:04]
Jordan
That's it.
- [02:04]
Tyler
Exactly.
- [02:05]
Rami
That's it.
- [02:06]
Tyler
Anyway, what a day. It did. Yeah. So we talked a lot about AI Slop, AI Video Slop. And I had this thesis. It's been kicking around in my head for a while. And I thought it would be interesting to kind of relay my thought process after talking to a bunch of creators and folks Working in big tech. So we've been talking about the AI video stuff, and the wave has been fascinating, where Vibes was, like, immediately jumping to, like, this is infinite. Just. It's terrible. And same thing with Sora too. Like, we jumped way past any of the normal discourse. There was a little bit of discourse about the electricity stuff and the water. My water bill's gonna go up because of this. There was some talk of AI system.
- [02:51]
Jordan
That discourse is still going on, to be clear.
- [02:53]
Tyler
It is.
- [02:53]
Jordan
There's a post here. We can pull it up. I'll put it at the top of the timeline while you continue on.
- [02:59]
Tyler
Yeah, but I thought. But there was a time when the narrative around this type of content, like, fake content, doctored content, fake news, AI content.
- [03:12]
Jordan
It says me watching Stephen Hawking drop into a sick half pipe mctwist while my electricity costs triple.
- [03:20]
Tyler
Honestly, so down. It's great.
- [03:22]
Jordan
Photo worth it.
- [03:23]
Tyler
I mean, that is one of the greatest AI videos. And that gets to my point, which is that I don't regard that video as AI slope. I would like to be shown that video. I don't want to be shown an endless stream of AI slop. That is bad. But there are obviously creative ways to use these tools. There are even ways to reappropriate the tools where the joke of the video is that it's an AI video and it's like, self aware. And those are very interesting. I was watching Casey Neistat's video all about his reaction to Sora, and he used a lot of AI video generated from Sora in the video. And so, like, there was a time when the answer and the call from the public was, we need to build an AI detector and we need to cordon this content off in its own tab. And that's kind of what Meta Vibes is doing. And that's what Ben Thompson was talking about. He was like, I have not been enjoying my Instagram experience because I'll be scrolling and then I'll see some AI content and I'm in this active mode again of like, is this real or not? As opposed to on Meta Vibes, to his point. He was like, I can just lay back and look at it, and it's like a screensaver and it's chill and I know everything a lot.
- [04:31]
Jordan
Right. You've been vlogging.
- [04:32]
Tyler
I have been using it a lot. Also, Ben Thompson kind of reversed his position and was like. Because he was saying he was bullish on Vibes and less interested in Sora, but then he was like, look, the charts speak for themselves. People clearly like Sora a lot more than vibes. Just looking at the growth of the App Store and so. But there was a call for, like, let's build a detector. I think it's a bad idea for two reasons. One is it's this Red Queen's race between AI generation and AI detection. Like the original. Did you ever look at generative adversarial networks, Tyler? Yeah, yeah, for sure. Like, can you describe, like, the thesis of a Gan and why it works?
- [05:16]
Dave
Yeah, so it's basically that this was like the first kind of way that, that generally worked of. Of producing images.
- [05:22]
Tyler
Yeah.
- [05:23]
Dave
So there's like two parts and they're basically acting against each other.
- [05:26]
Tyler
So.
- [05:26]
Dave
So one part is the. The generator. So it will create an image and then there's the other part, which is the detector. And it tries to figure out if it's AI or not. And then they basically go against each other. They're trying to beat each other at all times. And basically you just like, because you're training the detector based off, like, sometimes you give it a real image, sometimes you give it a fake image. And then slowly.
- [05:49]
Tyler
And if it can detect the AI image that gets negative points in the reward function. And if it can't, and if it thinks, yeah, this is real, then it gets upvoted from, hey, you did a good job generating that AI. So, like, effectively, a lot of these models that are AI generators have AI detectors built into them. Like it's part of the training process. I don't know exactly how the diffusion models work. I think they work similarly. I think that concept from the generative adversarial network has been employed and repurposed, but it seems like it's kind of this, like endless arms race between, like you build a detector and then the generator gets better. And so I'm not even sure if technically it'll work. What do you think?
- [06:29]
Dave
Yeah, I mean, so there's like a lot of people want the detectors especially for text, but the text is a lot harder. Right. Because there's just less signal. Like, there's only in a sentence, there's only, you know, like 20 characters.
- [06:40]
Jordan
Yeah.
- [06:40]
Dave
You just can't get that much data out of it. Where with video and photos, it's actually much easier to like, encode some, like, meaning that like. Like there's this thing about, like, printers. They have these like little dots.
- [06:51]
Tyler
Yep.
- [06:51]
Dave
And it like traces the printer.
- [06:53]
Tyler
Yeah.
- [06:53]
Dave
But you can't see it because there's just like, it's super faint and Very small. If you do the same thing with images where you can encode, you just change the images just barely up a little bit brightness, down a little bit.
- [07:03]
Tyler
Brightness and you lose it.
- [07:04]
Jordan
Yeah.
- [07:05]
Dave
So you can like a slight crop.
- [07:07]
Tyler
And a slight tweak to the contrast. And it's probably the same thing in text where if you just add one extra space or one extra period or change one word, all of a sudden like the, the whatever you've encoded in the overall text is just not going to read as much.
- [07:20]
Jordan
Yes.
- [07:20]
Dave
So like with text, you're basically like seeing the. Yeah, you're seeing everything. Or with an image you can kind of change stuff just a tiny bit to where you're actually seeing something else. Right. There's this famous example where with the image classifiers you can adversarially train against them to where you have an image of a panda, but it thinks it's a dog because you just updated the pixels slightly.
- [07:42]
Tyler
Yeah. And even with the Sorrow watermarking immediately I saw a watermark removal tool that just does the inpainting just on those watermarks.
- [07:50]
Dave
But what I'm saying is you should, in theory it should be much easier to create a classifier that can figure out if an image is AI or not. Like if it's directly from Sora for a while.
- [07:59]
Tyler
But you don't think it'll. You don't think it'll be this endless race where like the image generators will just get better and better and better and like the AI detectors will just always be like a little bit behind.
- [08:09]
Dave
That could be true. I think also OpenAI probably has some incentive to, to have watermark that's like a classifier or at least something that's like able to be classified on like a watermark.
- [08:20]
Tyler
Yeah.
- [08:21]
Dave
And if you think people will mostly just be using OpenAI or Google's image video generation instead of open source stuff. Yeah, because it'd always be like a little bit ahead.
- [08:29]
Jordan
Do you think that Apple will make any moves in terms of embedding anything in meta, like the metadata to like prove that this was taken as unaltered video from an Apple device?
- [08:39]
Tyler
Yep. For sure, some of that should be fakeable, but I think that for the most part that's definitely coming. It already is there to some degree in the metad that's maybe a little bit hard to spoof, but there's always a way around it. But there's definitely some stuff that you can do with cryptography to sign, basically sign the image as like from this at the hardware level. From this hardware device. I think that there will be this endless race between these two, but there will always be people that figure out how to sneak in something. Because it's like, okay, well then you can prove that it's from an iPhone. But what if you film a screen that's AI generated? Well, then you have a video on your phone that says it was taken with an iPhone and it's signed. It's actually AI generated. So there'll always be these ways around it. So I think that it's a little bit of, like, somewhat of a waste of resources. We should probably do it to some degree, at least be able to classify, but that's not really a perfect solution. The other side of this is that I don't know that we need to build AI slop detectors into large media platforms. Because the problem isn't AI, it's slop. Like, people enjoy seeing the Stephen Hawking at the X Games video you don't like. We already have tools to filter out slop. They're called algorithmic feeds. If you don't like slop, you will swipe past it and it automatically, and you automatically get served other content. And that just happens naturally. And so there is a problem with algorithmic feeds, though. They're pretty far from their final form and we should go through a little bit of the history. So they used to just focus on the initial action of choosing to watch a video. So on YouTube, for instance, they would rank videos in your algorithmic feed based on click, click through rate. So they'd show you thumbnails if you clicked. That was the only signal that went into the algorithmic feed that the video was good because it got a click. And so what people would do is they do clickbait and they in the thumbnail and title, be like, I bought a Bugatti. And then you watch the video to the end and it's like, actually, the person just went to the store, they bought a toy. Exactly.
- [10:44]
Jordan
Bugatti.
- [10:44]
Tyler
Exactly. Yeah. And so Mr. Beast had this thesis of, like, clickbait that delivers. If he says he's going to crush a Lamborghini, he's actually gonna do it. And so YouTube changed to view duration and watch time. So they shifted to being more watch time focused. And this did really solve the clickbait problem, because videos that earned clicks but not watch time were deprioritized. So you can be very high CTR but low avd and you do not go viral in the algorithm. So this led to relatively high user satisfaction. But there still is the problem of being glued to your phone, watching something that is engaging. You watch all to the. All the way to the end. But. But after you're done and you're reflecting on that hour that you spent watching that video, you're like, why did I waste an hour watching that? Because it was essentially slop. Even if it wasn't created with AI, it was not good. And the signal to the algorithm right now is, I love that video. I watched 100% of it. But internally, you know that that was a waste of time. And so you can churn. I wound up churning from TikTok at one point because I downloaded the app like years ago, scrolled and was like, yeah, this is some good stuff. This is interesting. But then afterwards I was just like, this is candy. I'm not interested in this. And I just uninstall the app and I haven't been on since. And so there's what I think is like the third phase, which is companies are starting to do now. So phase one is click through rate optimization. Then you get to AVD average view duration watch time optimization. Third is arpu, like average revenue per user optimization. So it's not enough to get someone to watch a full video they hate because then they might not open the app again. I personally turn from TikTok for this reason. Recommendation algorithm that optimizes for average revenue per user over an entire year is gonna focus on mitigating app churn. Cause it doesn't matter that you just got one really great video. They watched it all, but then they never came back. You want to optimize for. They came back a lot over the entire year. But that can still lead to brain rot. Like you can brain rot your users into being very high average revenue per user for a year for a while, but eventually they get so brain de that they lose their jobs, drop out of society, they become depressed, they stop being good customers, they stop being good consumers, which is something we can't have in the American economy. And so my answer to this and my pitch for these algorithmic platforms is to optimize for ltv. True ltv. The lifetime value of a user is usually estimated over a couple years. If you're a startup, you look kind of crazy if you come in with like a 5 year LTV. But if you think about how long I've been using YouTube, it's basically been my entire life, and it's been like 20 years or something. I've been on that platform since it started in what, 2005. And so really, you should be modeling the.
- [13:32]
Jordan
Just saying YouTube is 20 years old really makes you feel old.
- [13:36]
Tyler
Totally, totally. But you should be actually considering the full human lifespan. Like algorithmic video platforms should basically work like this. If I show this kid a brain rot video, I might be able to show some cheap toy ads right now or some mobile game ads or something like that. But if I show this kid an educational video and I teach them how to program, teach them how to be a business person, then they go get a high paying job and in 20 years I'll be able to show them ads for Ferraris. And if I show them ads for Ferraris, I'll make more money discounted in today's dollars. And so you should have an incentive at the algorithmic level to actually upskill, actually engage people in having a meaningful life where they wind up generating enough.
- [14:23]
Jordan
So you're. YouTube should actually create their own drop shipping course to help everyone become financially independent.
- [14:30]
Tyler
It could be a variety of things, anything that leads to a fruitful life. Right.
- [14:34]
Jordan
So the current crop, I think it's just that tension between helping create a more valuable user over time and extracting as much attention as you can get value from in the short term.
- [14:47]
Tyler
Exactly. Short term versus long term.
- [14:49]
Jordan
And then attention there is that. You know, all these scaled platforms are public companies that need to quarterly earnings results today for sure. And so there's, there's.
- [14:59]
Tyler
Yeah. And so none of the current recommendation algorithms are at all tuned to the average American's lifespan, which is 78 years. But I think they should be. They don't have enough data for this and I don't know if they will, how they would solve for this before they have a full cohort. Like it's going to take YouTube's 20 years old, but the average American 70 lives 78 years. It's going to take another 50 years to get a full, just one cohort to be like, okay, okay, now we know what happens if you show kids this video when they're young or this video and we saw how their entire life played out and turns out that this one was a better customer. So we should show them more of this. Like that's the feedback loop. It's a 78 year feedback loop, basically. It's crazy. Maybe not 78, but maybe 50 years. Like it's a really long feedback loop. It's going to take a long time to get all that data. But that's how these algorithms should work. And so I have no idea how they will solve for this before they have full cohort it's going to be some rough estimation, but I continue to believe it should be the guiding light of all the stewards of large algorithmic content platforms. Like even if you don't have the data, even if you can't just train the algorithm on that, you should still be thinking about.
- [16:05]
Jordan
This was the critique of ByteDance, right. People would talk about in China that the Chinese version of TikTok shows like Science and math videos. Why is that while your children are getting shown slop and they have like.
- [16:18]
Tyler
A 10,000 year plan over there, they're thinking in decades. And so you as the steward of an algorithmic platform should be thinking in decades. And you should be thinking about if I take this quarterly earnings bump right now, but I wind up ruining all my customers lives and they wind up being bad consumers. That's a financial issue that does work within the capitalist framework. And so I think you should build an algorithm that optimizes for your users leading more flourishing lives so they can ultimately afford more expensive things and make you more money. It's capitalism at its best anyway.
- [16:51]
Jordan
Perfect blend of techno, optimism and hyper capitalism.
- [16:56]
Tyler
Yes.
- [16:57]
Jordan
And for what it's worth, in one theory, I like it.
- [17:00]
Tyler
The response to this I gave an abbreviated version of this pitch and the response was magnificent. I think it resonated very well, which I was excited about.
- [17:10]
Jordan
Well, you know what else is magnificent?
- [17:11]
Tyler
What else? Ramp.com, time is money save, both easy use, corporate cards, bill payments, accounting and a whole lot more all in one place.
- [17:19]
Jordan
Go to ramp.com Another magnificent thing, potentially. Future member of the Mag 8, Sam Altman, joining the show on Friday to talk about Svoro.
- [17:29]
Tyler
We're very excited for this.
- [17:30]
Jordan
This is a real picture of him.
- [17:32]
Tyler
Yes, he's been hitting the gym.
- [17:34]
Jordan
This hasn't really been in wide circulation, but we kind of expect this to be one of the default headshots that he uses going forward. He looks, looks fantastic here. So we're very excited, very excited for this. Lots of questions that we have around Sora. The real plan is and looking forward to it. It'll be noon Pacific on Friday. And in other news, Morgan Housel, friend of the show, has launched his new book, the Art of Spending Money.
- [18:02]
Tyler
Is he coming on soon? We gotta get.
- [18:04]
Jordan
I just sent him a message. I kind of botched it. I was supposed to email him a long time ago, but we'll work on getting him on hopefully tomorrow or Thursday. Very excited to read the book myself. I'm assuming a lot of the book will be about Ramp, which we obviously know quite a lot about but I'm interested to see what else he's writing.
- [18:25]
Tyler
About the psychology of corporate cards.
- [18:29]
Jordan
That's the next book. That's the next book.
- [18:32]
Tyler
Is he doing spawncon now? What? That's what we should write.
- [18:38]
Jordan
Good stuff.
- [18:38]
Tyler
Anyway. Restream iO1 livestream 30 + destinations multi stream to reach your audience wherever they are. Get signed up for free folks. Fabricated knowledge Doug o'. Laughlin. He was on the show yesterday, had a great time hanging out with him. He says oh my God. Face plant. Faceplant. Faceplant. Oracle lost nearly $100 million from rentals of Nvidia Blackwell chips which arrived this year. That's partly because there's a period between when Oracle gets its data centers ready.
- [19:05]
Jordan
For custom and he's bolding this part.
- [19:07]
Tyler
And when customers start using and paying for them. The documents show it's not clear what causes the gap or how Oracle plans to shorten it.
- [19:16]
Jordan
And so of course he's referencing an article by the Information this morning, an absolute bombshell.
- [19:21]
Tyler
Bombshell.
- [19:22]
Jordan
They dropped internal Oracle data show financial challenge of renting out Nvidia chips. And obviously Doug is highlighting that yes, it's possible to lose money between the time when you invest a lot of money in something and when you can actually sell the service. So not a huge surprise there.
- [19:41]
Tyler
So Joe Wiesenthal had a little take on this. He said in the Is this from him? This is from a Bloomberg terminal, but I don't know if it's an information article put into a Bloomberg terminal.
- [19:51]
Jordan
There's another post here from Dollyball.
- [19:53]
Tyler
You want to read that one?
- [19:54]
Jordan
He says information article is stupid. If you look at the beginning of a site ramp, obviously there's no margin. Lol. So anyways, timeline putting this one in the truth zone.
- [20:05]
Tyler
Indeed.
- [20:06]
Jordan
I think we need to ourselves.
- [20:08]
Tyler
Indeed. The Financial Times had an interesting breakdown of OpenAI's current corporate structure which not.
- [20:16]
Jordan
Enough red string here.
- [20:18]
Tyler
Yeah, every time you think it can get it's like oh, oh well OpenAI has 12 different organizations within OpenAI. It can't get any crazier than this. Well they go and do deals with every single company in the world apparently. So this.
- [20:36]
Jordan
Yeah, every time I list off how many companies are riding with with OpenAI and how many companies current market caps depend on their partnership with OpenAI. I always leave off too. I'm always like, think of like Nvidia, Oracle and Core Weave. And then it's like oh, there's actually Broadcom and amd. There's also softbank and there's also Microsoft and it's just all over. And the interesting thing that we had been talking about off air yesterday is this dynamic where you kind of have to assume there'll be some type of correction in the coming two years. Not a super bold statement to make.
- [21:10]
Tyler
Yeah, we'll get into that.
- [21:11]
Jordan
And OpenAI could very well be the only company in this crazy web that's private, which could be an advantage in an environment where we're seeing massive drawdowns and just due to OpenAI effectively controlling your share price. Right.
- [21:30]
Tyler
Yeah. I like this take. I thought what's interesting is that being public during a major correction is not a death sentence. Like, Amazon got through it, they saw a massive drawdown. But is being private during a massive drawdown an asset? Is that something that you should be optimizing for? Does it matter at all? Because in some ways, if you go out, you're public, you raise a ton of money, you have a fortress balance sheet. Yes. You might have employees who are disappointed because they're. Their personal financials are being mark to market and there's way down. That would be emotionally rough. Right. But at the same time, it is possible that at least it's public. At least, you know, there's some liquidity and you're not sitting there wondering, like, am I, Is this company actually worth zero? Like, you're being mark to market and it's like, if you're at Amazon in 2000, 2001 and you're down, I think they went down like 80, 90%. Right?
- [22:35]
Jordan
Yeah. Oracle withstood a more than 80% drawdown between 2000 and 2002.
- [22:41]
Tyler
I really wonder how that works. Employee, like, if you were there at Oracle and you were like, I'm about to buy a house. And then you're like, I'm about to buy a shack. Was it that rough? Like, did you like, did that emotionally affect.
- [22:59]
Jordan
Of course it was rough.
- [23:00]
Tyler
But did it emotionally affect you like family, where you're like, I'm too depressed to do the database migration. Like, I'm too depressed.
- [23:07]
Jordan
I have a family. I have a family friend that retired in their early 40s, kind of after the, after the dot com craziness. And they sold. Not at the top, they sold about. They exited the majority of their position. I won't name the company prior six months out from the top. And so for a while they looked really silly. And ultimately they were telling me all the peers that they had were still working to achieve like the wealth that they had on paper during 2000, 20 years later. Right. And so you can. Again, going through these is. I feel like the venture industry broadly had to go through this somewhat obviously in 2022, 2023. Right. Everybody had these crazy paper marks that suddenly were not living up to expectations.
- [24:06]
Tyler
Or at least there are some crazy, crazy examples. I don't know if Akamai is one of them. There's a few companies I think Akamai was actually. It still is not at its all time high of the dot com boom because it IPO'd at 300. In 1999, it was at $327 a share and now 76. I never know if the splits are accurate and whatnot, but there's been a bunch of companies that traded down. I mean Akamai went down by 99% and then built back up and saw 50x gain over the next 20 years as they built back. And it was always a real company. It was just massively overvalued in the dot com boom. But it will be a. Oh, this is a funny post. You just put in the timeline. There is a bubble in people calling for bubbles. Calling for bubbles or calling bubbles. Are you calling for a bubble? We pray for a bubble.
- [25:04]
Jordan
You don't call for a bubble. We used to pray for a bubble like this. We did, we did. Anyway, I do remember in 2023 during, you know, post SVB, I wouldn't go so far as to say I was actually praying for a bubble.
- [25:19]
Tyler
Yeah.
- [25:19]
Jordan
But I thought it'd be crazy if our industry went through something like that. Quite that crazy again. And sure enough, we got it. And AI, the current AI hype cycle hasn't even got to dance with low interest rates yet.
- [25:34]
Tyler
It hasn't gotten to dance with low interest rates or leverage, really.
- [25:37]
Jordan
Imagine that.
- [25:38]
Tyler
Or leverage. Yeah. Yeah. Everyone's saying it's 1999. Not many people saying whether or not it's January or December of 1999, because that is important. What day did the actual stock market peak in 1999? I have a search here. It was actually March 10, 2000. March 10, 2000. So if it's January and you're like, oh, I'm calling, it's 1999. I'm going bold. I'm calling the top. It's like, no, you're calling. If you're calling in January of 1999, you're calling yourself 15 months out from the top, which is a wild amount of time. A lot of room to make money. Who knows?
- [26:17]
Jordan
Yeah, there was. Who was it yesterday? Paul Tudor Jones was saying he feels like there he was on CNBC yesterday saying hey, things feel overheated, but he was basically calling for like a blow off top.
- [26:30]
Tyler
Sure.
- [26:30]
Jordan
He says in his view it can get a lot crazier before a correction. So and again, that feels like the general sentiment right now is, you know, Doug on the show yesterday was saying like look, we're not even most of these companies are not even levered yet. And like that is like almost certainly going to happen.
- [26:50]
Tyler
Yeah, except Oracle, they're pretty levered but not that crazy levered. Like there is some fake news around the 5x leverage that's going on over there. It's not quite that big of a deal, but let's switch gears. Famous last slide. But first let's tell you about Privy Wallet infrastructure for every bank. Privy makes it easy to build on crypto rail, securely spin up white label wallets, sign transactions and integrate on chain infrastructure all through one simple API. Joe Lonsdale is celebrating one of his portfolio companies. He says he's blown away by the talent behind some of these great companies. Just a casual Nobel prize so Sonoma Bio's Fred Ramsdell won the 2025 Nobel Prize in Medicine for his work on regulatory T cells, or Tregs, which act as an emergency brake on the immune system. Tregs are a critical understanding autoimmune disease and advancing immunotherapy more broadly. So congrats to him. He's the co founder, former chief scientific officer and a current advisor to Sonoma Bio, a trailblazer in cell therapies and an 8BC portfolio company that 8BC has proudly supported from the beginning. He led the team that discovered and characterized the gene FOXP3. Talk about a cool name for a gene FOXP3. I like that. Which plays a critical role in T reg's development. Development leading to a new field of immunotherapies. The thesis continues to be validated with portfolio companies like Orca Bio, which recently received FDA acceptance, priority review of its bla, and Orca T in hemologic malignancies. See below.
- [28:28]
Jordan
Joe just comments. Cool.
- [28:29]
Tyler
Yeah, I agree. Did he comment Cool? No, I think I clicked in. I think I clicked in. I was wondering if he commented cool on his own post, which would be some king move anyway. Another 8VC portfolio company cognition boom. The makers of Devon BI software engineer crush your backlog with your personal engineering team. Martin Shkreli's been on a tear. Got your capital breaks down. So Shkreli does it again. He picked a stock that went up 1,400% today. That is an insane pop. Martin Shkreli says long SPRB. His price target is $500. It was trading at 25 at the time, or I guess even less. It was trading at 8, and it.
- [29:14]
Jordan
Went up to 152 on Friday. You could buy one share. Spruce Biosciences for $8.78. It's now trading at $197 per share.
- [29:27]
Tyler
That is crazy.
- [29:28]
Jordan
Still sitting at $111 million market cap.
- [29:34]
Tyler
I still don't understand like. Like he can't run a fund, but he can trade this. Is this financial advice? He seems like he's playing it really fast and loose, but he's clearly calling good stuff and doing research. So appreciate the work.
- [29:49]
Jordan
He's been, I think, making a lot of people a lot of money.
- [29:51]
Tyler
Yeah. So everyone's happy. He says his price target's $500. Rare disease is his specialty. The ERT for San Filippo will be approved CMC notwithstanding, and be the new standard of care. Said I was working on a presentation when the news was scooped, but this drug restores the abnormally high levels of heparin sulfate to normal. Without this drug, patients will die. At 18 the normal ranges of HS, they may live a normal life. Well, that's really exciting. That seems really good. TJP says I'll pass. Already up too much. It's just, who knows?
- [30:25]
Jordan
If it goes up a lot, there's no way it could go up more.
- [30:28]
Tyler
There's no way. Well, let me tell you about figma. Think bigger, build faster. Figma helps design and development teams build great products together. Get started for free.
- [30:37]
Jordan
Brother Tyler, start playing around with figma. Make in chatgpt. I want you to test out the integration.
- [30:44]
Tyler
The integration yesterday.
- [30:46]
Jordan
Very interesting at Dev Day.
- [30:48]
Tyler
Yeah. Do you know if those Agent Builder tools are like, general availability already?
- [30:54]
Dave
Yeah. So I tried to use the Agent Builder earlier today, and then you have to. I couldn't get it to work because you have to verify your organization. And then I tried to put in my id, and then it just, like said, failed. So I don't know. Yeah, but I'll try it again. But they are generally available.
- [31:10]
Tyler
Okay, well, that's good. Well, Max Meyer is breaking down the Free Press acquisition. This was announced yesterday. Barry Weiss's Free Press was acquired by Paramount. Max says seeing so much cynicism and bitterness on the timeline about the Free Press. So let me tell you why I love it as a contributor and why it means so much to many people. The FP is A match made in heaven between writers and readers. We writers can't live without readers. And the FP readers are amazing, savvy, thoughtful, opinionated, but kind. I can't tell you how many emails, texts, phone calls, DMs I've received every time I put a piece in the fp. These are Americans I want to know, and the FP is their gathering place. I've written pieces about very random things. Warren Buffet, my brother. Warren Buffett's not his brother. There's a comma, he says, I've written about Warren Buffett. I've written about my brother. I've written about a Missouri resort town, the Latter Day Saints Church, and SpaceX. Which is an amazing blessing and a credit to their smart editors. The FB team and their readers care deeply about America, even if they disagree about politics. Some just scroll some of the comments sections on Trump related articles and you'll see the amazing bites and disagreements. What Barry, Nelly and the entire FP team have done in three years is now the model for media make something so good that people would walk over glass to pay their hard earned money for it. Not to get through some terrible paywall, but to be part of something. The free press is worth every penny. Paramount paid, probably more. How often does a talent like Barry come along? And people who work in the world of talent should know this rather than be cynical or conspiratorial. Barry and team have a long way to go from here. This is the beginning. The complainers should watch and learn, which is exciting.
- [32:53]
Jordan
Yeah, I mean, I just looked at this as a way to make CBS News relevant again to a new, important class of readers, a much younger demographic than the CBS audience today. And you look at it as like a trade deal. Right. This is a talent acquisition. Barry Weiss will probably create far more than $150 million of value just by being a part of CBS.
- [33:21]
Tyler
Yeah. Also, I mean, I do think that like, I mean we talk about this a lot, but like audience quality is like still deeply misunderstood. A lot of people just look at total audience size impressions. They see every reader as the same value. And that was certainly true in the days of the three major networks, cbs, NBC, abc. But we're just in a completely different, much more fragmented world. And so I don't know if they had a million subscribers or something like that, but the people that opted into the free presses funnel are probably way more monetizable than the people that are turning on late night CBS for the 50th time. They definitely pulled in interesting People pulled in me when they signed Tyler Cowan and I've been enjoying his column there. He wrote a wild one about how his favorite new actress is AI very controversial. He's really leaning into it. It's great. But Alex Bronzini, vendor is a perfect example of someone who's a little bit of a Free Press hater. So the Free Press on October 6 said the free Press is joining Paramount and they share a link to the fp.com they put the link right in there. And Alex says this Post has accrued 147 likes in four hours. Nearly one for every million dollars Paramount thought the Free Press was worth. And honestly, 147 likes on X with a link in there to a substack is. It's a miracle. It's a miracle. But yeah, people are laughing, but yeah, Nick says the New York Times gets similar likes on Twitter. You're not saying anything meaningful. And yeah, I don't think anyone believes that Bari Weiss has as big of an audience as Mr. Beast. But that doesn't quite matter because it's a different audience and hitting certain audiences is more valuable than other audiences. Where else should we go? The other way. Hat is back in the news. The hat is back in the news. Anthropic hat.
- [35:34]
Jordan
Break it down. Yeah. Jordan says the tone of the quote entrepreneurial tech glaze makes me sad for the whole world and all of history. That is a bold statement. I don't know, I mean, did we talk about this yesterday? Yeah. I think that Anthropic's campaign is good. I don't think it's. And I can see why people want the hat. And Anthropic is a great brand and they have a great team and they have a unique culture and they've been able to retain people. It's the place that many of the brightest minds in AI want to work at.
- [36:08]
Tyler
Yeah.
- [36:08]
Jordan
That said, I don't think this is an award winning campaign. It's like they put a verb on a dad cap. Right. We've been doing this since like 2016. 2016 is kind of how I clocked it. They're selling coffee. A lot of people in tech have done this. I think this is more just excitement around Anthropic's overall positioning. Right. As like the anti slop AI company. So people are choosing to side with them and they've built up a cult around what they're doing, which is very powerful. But again, I'm not blown away by the. I love the Anthropic team and I Think their products are amazing. But personally, at no point was I thinking, I need a liner up around the block to get this hat, you know, And. And I actually wouldn't. Wouldn't wear the hat. But. So anyways, you would be caught dead in that. I wouldn't be caught in the hat.
- [37:11]
Tyler
No.
- [37:11]
Jordan
Don't even try to put one of these on my head.
- [37:13]
Tyler
I. I think the hat is kind of.
- [37:15]
Jordan
No, they're cool. They're cool. It's fine. It's just that you put a verb on a dad hat.
- [37:21]
Tyler
Okay. Yeah.
- [37:22]
Jordan
You want to. Do you want an award?
- [37:25]
Tyler
No, they didn't ask for award. People are just excited about it.
- [37:28]
Jordan
I know.
- [37:29]
Tyler
So Castro is reacting to the reaction. It's not like anthropic went out there and was like, please glaze us. It's just like they got glazed. And then Jordan is like, stop with the glaze. And it's not really their fault. But I think the bigger question is.
- [37:45]
Jordan
I just think the question is, can they get a true foothold in consumer. Because this.
- [37:50]
Tyler
That's a great question.
- [37:51]
Jordan
That's a great campaign. Is very consumer focused. I saw these keep thinking billboards on, I don't know, not Melrose Sunset Boulevard.
- [38:02]
Tyler
In West Hollywood sandwiched in between two friend.com billboards.
- [38:05]
Jordan
Yeah. Probably. I'm surprised they could even buy John and I. John and I drive. John and I drive around.
- [38:12]
Tyler
See friend billboards.
- [38:14]
Jordan
You can't go everywhere. You cannot go two blocks. They're literally every other block.
- [38:18]
Tyler
It's every.
- [38:19]
Jordan
The most massive billboards I saw. We saw a friend billboard that is like basically behind the building. And I was like, avi, why did he even pay? Did you. Did you just really hit market buy?
- [38:30]
Tyler
He bought everything. He went on adquick.com out of home advertising made easy and measurable. Say goodbye to the headaches of out of home advertising. Only. Only adquick. Yeah. Get on quick because they will help you pick billboards that are not directly up against walls.
- [38:48]
Jordan
Yeah. No. You. You know, in. In no circumstance would an entrepreneur with limited resources look at this billboard and think, yep, I gotta have this one. Because it's like more than two thirds of it was covered by a building. You had to be at the most insane angle while you're driving by. You have to. You have to peek around out your window.
- [39:07]
Tyler
Yeah.
- [39:08]
Jordan
So I mean, here's what I'll say about Anthropics campaign.
- [39:12]
Tyler
Yeah.
- [39:12]
Jordan
Breath of thresh air.
- [39:13]
Tyler
Yep.
- [39:14]
Jordan
It's quality.
- [39:14]
Tyler
Yep.
- [39:15]
Jordan
It's not award winning.
- [39:17]
Tyler
Yep.
- [39:18]
Jordan
And I think that the People that like it, I totally get why they like it.
- [39:21]
Tyler
Yep.
- [39:22]
Jordan
Breath of fresh air. I understand why other people that are not in tech are thinking, this is the best that you got.
- [39:29]
Tyler
Yep.
- [39:30]
Jordan
This is. This is. This is your hero.
- [39:33]
Tyler
Yep.
- [39:33]
Jordan
It's like the bar is just pretty low, Right? The bar overall is low. And one of the challenges is that the brands of AI companies get tied to the outputs, and sometimes the outputs are great and most often they're not so great. Right. And so I'm interested to see how aggressive OpenAI gets with that video campaign they did with the. What's It Tell Euphoria.
- [39:58]
Tyler
Yeah, the Euphoria.
- [39:59]
Jordan
I thought those videos were great.
- [40:02]
Tyler
Yes. What's interesting is that Anthropic did a video series that was very similar. Aesthetically warm tones, highly cinematic, shallow depth of field, very emotional. Like just a few weeks or months earlier. I can't even keep track of this point. So both of them were experimenting in the same brand landscape. I personally would like our sponsor, Vanta, to do a hat that's actually just a huge Llama helmet. And it says automate compliance, Manage risk, trust continuously on it. And it should also say, you know, the anthropic hat is so simple. It just says thinking. It doesn't even say anthropic on it. I think the Vanta hat should say. Vanta's trust management platform takes the manual work out of your security and compliance process and replaces with continuous automation, whether you're pursuing your first framework or managing a complex program. Like, all the way around the hat. Just put the entire landing page on the hat. I think that would be innovative.
- [40:56]
Jordan
There's also. I was thinking somebody needs to make a. Nobody's made the AI smart helmet yet that you can wear all the time. From the moment that you wake up to the moment you go to bed, potentially even when you're sleeping. Think about how much computer you could have.
- [41:11]
Tyler
So much compute, you could get, so much batteries, you could have all day. Battery all month.
- [41:14]
Jordan
Battery all month.
- [41:15]
Tyler
Battery. Also, wearing a motorcycle helmet is incredibly cool.
- [41:20]
Jordan
Hardcore.
- [41:20]
Tyler
I mean, I know you haven't seen Kill Bill, but the bride, played by Uma Thurman in Kill Bill, Tarantino classic, wears this motorcycle outfit with this motorcycle helmet and just looks so sick thick.
- [41:33]
Jordan
So next time we talk with Zuck, that's going to be my pitch.
- [41:36]
Tyler
Yep.
- [41:37]
Jordan
AI motorcycle helmet that you can daily imagine.
- [41:40]
Tyler
You're just like, just rocking in the workplace and you're just like, I'm locking in.
- [41:44]
Jordan
I don't. Yeah, we're joking about it but I could see this actually being created. It's like a drop dead helmet, dude.
- [41:52]
Tyler
It's more comfortable to wear a ski helmet or a motorcycle helmet than Apple Vision Pro.
- [41:56]
Jordan
Yeah.
- [41:57]
Tyler
Let's be honest about it.
- [41:58]
Jordan
Yeah.
- [41:59]
Tyler
And so why not strap that whole thing on your head? I love it. It's amazing. I have a couple rebuttals to you. First, I'm going to talk about graphite.dev. code review for the age of AI. Graphite helps teams on GitHub ship higher quality software faster. So Anthropic in consumer, they're clearly behind. But it's very interesting because they have a fantastic model that can instantiate code very quickly. You could do all of this on the fly app development basically. So when you ask a question, it actually builds a piece of software for you that's interactive. There's so many cool things that they can do with their foundation model. Also they have my Krieger and so I just feel like I was trying.
- [42:38]
Jordan
To push him on a little bit. What can you do on the social side to catalyze Claude's growth?
- [42:45]
Tyler
Yeah. Like when I think of the backlash to Meta Vibes, the backlash to Sora 2 and Sora, if I were to try and build a team that would not face backlash to a consumer product, to a new consumer product, I would would back Claude with Mike Krieger. Right. Because he's going to build something that's delightful, just like the early days of Instagram. I would think that he would inject that kind of simplicity and beauty into the product that they build. Who knows? Maybe it's coming. Maybe every foundation model company needs an answer to the AI slop TikTok feed. And I would be very excited to see what comes out of Anthropic. The other take on this hat is hat aside, I think that keep thinking is a good phrase. I think thinking is a good phrase. I think it's a good word. I think they picked that word well and it excites me and it actually hits like you can talk a lot about it. Like, oh, they just a word on a hat. But of all the words to pick. It feels more human. It feels less, less cyberpunky. It feels less like super human intelligence. Feels like, okay, maybe that's opposed to my interests like fast takeoff, all these scary AI doom things which Anthropic is like honestly famous for.
- [44:06]
Jordan
Everybody is loving this campaign but Thinking.
- [44:10]
Tyler
Machines Lab, that is true.
- [44:13]
Jordan
Absolutely brutal.
- [44:14]
Tyler
But I thought it was interesting that, that the message is keep thinking. If you're a human. Keep thinking. Don't stop thinking. Like, what we do here at Anthropic is not think for you. That's an interesting message because for a long time, people were saying, they say.
- [44:30]
Jordan
We hear for you.
- [44:32]
Tyler
We hear for you. A lot of the. What's that from?
- [44:35]
Jordan
Is that Waystar? Royco?
- [44:40]
Tyler
So a lot of, like, a lot of the AI, A lot of the AI rhetoric has been, the AI will be able to think for you. And Anthropic is specifically putting on a billboard. Whether they believe it or not or whether that's where AI actually goes, they're encouraging you to say, hey, keep thinking. Because that's not our job. Our job. You do the thinking and we do the coding and all the boring.
- [45:03]
Jordan
Are you sure they're not just worried? It's like, hey, you guys are relying on Cloud a little too much. Keep thinking, buddy.
- [45:08]
Tyler
Maybe think it felt. Maybe. And so that is the question is, like, is this Dario's new view? Because the view that Dario has espoused on many a podcast is, yeah, you're not gonna be thinking because there's, like, a 45% chance that everyone's dead. Cause, you know, like, he comes out with some hardcore rhetoric that does not feel extremely warm or human or anything about, like, hmm, hat. Like, are you gonna be wearing hats if we're all paperclips? Like, no. And so, like, is this the marketing team at Anthropic saying, like, let's step away from Dario's viewpoint a little bit, or is it more? Dario has actually shifted his thinking and is saying, like, no. I actually feel like what we are building is complementary to humans. That would be exciting, and I feel like that would be inspiring to me, and I would be excited about that. And so I don't know where all this goes, but I think it's a step in the right direction. Action. There are so many other campaigns that could have been less human, more Clanker coded, and would not have hit. And this one clearly hit to the point where it got so much positive attention that there was a backlash to the positive attention, which I think is kind of the best case scenario for a really positive ad campaign is that people get sick of people talking about how good your ad campaign was. Was. So I think it was pretty good. We need to react to the AI Homeless man prank on someone's dad.
- [46:37]
Jordan
Yep.
- [46:38]
Tyler
We've been instructed that we must.
- [46:40]
Jordan
Our silence has been deafening.
- [46:41]
Tyler
It has been deafening. Can we pull this video up while.
- [46:46]
Jordan
We pull it up? Avi Schiffman has hit the timeline again. He says every single available bus shelter in LA now has a friend ad. So apparently there weren't enough ads.
- [46:57]
Tyler
That's what people were saying.
- [46:58]
Jordan
They were like, avi, they said more.
- [47:00]
Tyler
We need more billboards. You gotta push this campaign further. There just aren't enough billboards. People aren't aware of your campaign. You're barely breaking through, buddy. Step it up. Let's watch the AI homeless man prank on my dad video. Okay, so you take a picture, send it to the dad. I can't read any of this. This is too small. Is this ad. Is this like Nano Banana adding the dad to the. To the pictures of the actual house? 7 phone calls from the dad. So he's br. Is pitching. I'm bringing in the homeless person into my house. No. Oh, in the bed. Thirteen phone calls. Do you think this is at all real or do you think this is all theater? Do you think this is all created?
- [47:56]
Jordan
All theater?
- [47:57]
Tyler
All theater.
- [47:58]
Jordan
But it's mildly entertaining.
- [48:00]
Tyler
Yeah, it is an interesting case study in like AI slop in the sense that like, it's using AI to create, you know, Photoshop text messages, I suppose, and, and, and getting a laugh out of that.
- [48:15]
Jordan
But yeah, it's like using AI to lie for entertainment.
- [48:19]
Tyler
To lie. Yes. But, but it's. It. The lie is like a meta commentary on the nature of AI slop. Right? Because it's, it's the, the. The joke is on the dad or the theoretical. The hypothetical dad, and this, the character of the dad. Anyway, let's talk about Julius. What analysis do you want to run? Chat with your data and get expert level insights in seconds. Ask Julius to analyze your data images.
- [48:48]
Jordan
That make you feel pain. There's a post here from Aishwarya who says low key, the anthropic NYC pop up hype is proof. A lot of tech people have never been invited to a fashion week event or a real brand activation before keyword being invited.
- [49:05]
Tyler
That's probably true. I mean, these are wildly different worlds.
- [49:10]
Jordan
Hayden Johnson has a post here that says every AI ad is like, hey, Gemini, what would I have for lunch? And then the phone is like sandwich. And the guy is like, wow.
- [49:23]
Tyler
That'S so funny.
- [49:24]
Jordan
Wow.
- [49:25]
Tyler
Okay, we need to watch the video of Ken Griffin. Given some hot takes about the AI.
- [49:31]
Jordan
This is. This should be the most near term bearish thing you watch today.
- [49:36]
Tyler
Let's see from Bourbon Capital Highlights is finally, someone isn't afraid to speak the truth. People have been speaking the truth or, you know, giving hot takes for months. Now, let's just make that clear, but let's hear it from Ken Griffin himself at the Future of Global Markets 2025 Citadel Securities Conference. Large language models particular have been in existence for a few years. I think there's a real change chance that when we think about the, the forms of, of AI that are alluded to by many of the markets leaders today, that their dream for the future may not take three to five years to play out. It could be 20 years, it could be 30 years. You know, it's like the Internet and I, I, people hate this analogy, but like the dot com moment back at the start of this century, did anyone have any doubt that the Internet was going to change the world? No. Has the Internet changed the world? Absolutely. But did it take longer than anticipated and was there a period in which, which there was a real sort of sorting of the winners and losers that took place? Unequivocally. Unequivocally. And I think that the AI story will have many of the same components. There's a bubble and people calling for bubbles. Tyler.
- [50:58]
Jordan
But I think this is just ultimately a very sound analysis and it's coming from somebody who is highly intelligent, highly accomplished, highly invested and yet doesn't personally, to my knowledge, have a billion dollars of equity in a lab who's incentivized to keep the part like, well, he.
- [51:21]
Tyler
Might have a million dollars like this second and then not tomorrow and then. No, no, no, the next second. This second.
- [51:25]
Jordan
And then Ken's going to make money no matter what.
- [51:29]
Tyler
Yeah, yeah.
- [51:29]
Jordan
He doesn't. You know, I'm sure he's making a lot of money now. Maybe, maybe in a correction he makes less, but he's going to do fine no matter what.
- [51:37]
Tyler
And so Citadel got roasted in the financial crisis.
- [51:40]
Jordan
Yeah.
- [51:41]
Tyler
They drew down 50%.
- [51:42]
Jordan
Yeah. Didn't he almost like wind down the fund?
- [51:44]
Tyler
Yeah, it was really, really rough.
- [51:46]
Jordan
But, but it's important to not just listen to the predictions and opinions of people who have the heaviest bags that are dependent on keeping the party going as long as possible.
- [52:00]
Tyler
Tyler, what you got?
- [52:03]
Dave
So it could also be that his competitors are invested in the AI labs. Right. I think Jane street is big in anthropic. Yeah. Being an anthropic.
- [52:11]
Tyler
Oh, okay. Yeah. So maybe it's really he's lack of bags problem with. He has lack of bags, so he's bearish.
- [52:17]
Jordan
Sidelined.
- [52:17]
Tyler
Lack of bags is as much of a conflict as not having conflicts is a conflict because you don't have bags and so you're incentivized. To be bearish on people that have bags.
- [52:27]
Jordan
Yeah.
- [52:28]
Tyler
This is a fact.
- [52:28]
Jordan
He wants to crush his enemies.
- [52:29]
Tyler
Tyler, how many days until the singularity?
- [52:33]
Dave
We're still at 3650. I guess it should have 3650. There wasn't a lot of big news since I changed it last, so I guess it should. Should have gone down every day, but.
- [52:41]
Tyler
So 10 years until the singularity. We need to be updating that daily. So at least we're ticking down. But watching that Ken Griffin clip, are you adding days? Are you removing days? What are you thinking?
- [52:52]
Dave
Ken Griffin is kind of boomer coded, so I'm saying we're closer to AGI after watching this.
- [52:58]
Tyler
Okay. You think he's a contraindicator for AGI progress?
- [53:02]
Jordan
Yeah.
- [53:02]
Tyler
Yeah. Okay, so you're removing Dave. So we're down at like 3,000 days now. Just nine years.
- [53:08]
Dave
I mean, 600 days. I think that's almost two years, right? That's a little too big of an update.
- [53:12]
Tyler
Yeah. Yeah. Did either of you watch the Dwarkash Sutton reaction? The apology video? Someone said so funny. It was not apology video. Dwarkesh did apologize in the video, but only saying, I apologize if I'm mischaracterizing your statement and I have some of the ground truth wrong. But I thought it was interesting. I felt like I came away originally thinking that the bitter lesson was poor endless compute behind any algorithm that's working and scaling when Sutton kind of reclassifies it as like the game of the AI researcher is to hunt for the next algorithm that will scale with compute. And he's not saying that any algorithm will necessarily scale infinitely with compute. And so my takeaway was that if he looks at LLMs, he's like, good progress for four ooms. Maybe need a new thing to go for the next five ooms or something like that. Was that your read?
- [54:13]
Jordan
Yeah.
- [54:14]
Dave
I mean, the thing about LLMs is, like, the scaling, there's just no more data to scale with. So it's not bitter listen pill in that sense anymore, because you can't just keep throwing more compute at the same lms, because if you just make the models bigger or whatever, it's not going to get better. The model won't be better because the data is constrained.
- [54:33]
Tyler
Yeah. It's this weird thing where you can zoom out and look at computing power over the past 50 years and see a very, very smooth curve. Then you can look at the AI winters and see that there's these huge steps in progress. The transformer paper, the I don't know, there's been a whole bunch of like image. Net, right?
- [54:59]
Dave
Reasoning models.
- [54:59]
Tyler
Reasoning models, Big, big step forward. And those are like, those are like a decade apart sometimes. And so you get these like qualitative bumps where you're like oh wow, like this feels different. But then in that interim you might not see a lot of like qualitative jumps in clear progress, clear new capabilities. But the diffusion of that economic value is immense. And so technically pre LLM, we were kind of in an AI winter, I suppose, where like self driving cars were like 10 years behind. Nothing was really like popping in AI. AI was not a buzzword. People weren't using AI domains. But in the period of time from like call it 2010 to 2020, what was the economic impact of AI like? It was insane, right? Because Netflix was doing recommendation algorithms, Amazon was doing recommendation algorithms, the Facebook algorithmic ad feed TikTok feeds like, like AI wasn't Transformer based LLMs, but AI was a massive driver of economic growth.
- [56:05]
Jordan
Aquila created the AI hype cycle probably in order to sell more AI domains.
- [56:10]
Tyler
Isn't like 50% of their GDP AI domains.
- [56:14]
Jordan
50% of their like, like budget. Basically like budget comes from AI domain.
- [56:19]
Tyler
It's remarkable. Well, if you want to generate some media, head over to fall the generative media platform for developers. The world's best generative image, video and audio models all in one place. Develop and fine tune models with serverless GPUs and on demand clusters.
- [56:33]
Jordan
If you want to bring our soundboard into your team meetings, team zooms, your team hangouts, go to tvpn.com sound brought to you by fall.
- [56:42]
Tyler
Yes, Chubby says. I double checked. You can Already buy Unitree's G1 at Walmart. Only $21,000 shipping in one week. Tesla must hurry to deploy their operations.
- [56:53]
Jordan
Do we buy one? Do we buy one?
- [56:57]
Tyler
We got to, right?
- [56:58]
Jordan
We got to.
- [56:58]
Tyler
We have to buy one of these and have another fight.
- [57:02]
Jordan
It's so such a wild thing to let a fox into the hen house, but sometimes you got to do it right. The global economy, like let Sam all in the fox into the hen house and we'll see what happens.
- [57:16]
Tyler
We gotta let the henhouse analogy is amazing, but I don't think of the.
- [57:20]
Jordan
We gotta get the unity G1 basic. This is the CCP fox into the Ultradome and just I think of the.
- [57:27]
Tyler
TVP and Ultradome less as a hen house and more as a bullring, more.
- [57:33]
Jordan
Of a fox house.
- [57:34]
Tyler
We're still on the Fox but over Here you have the bulls jacked, fighting.
- [57:38]
Jordan
Well, there's also.
- [57:39]
Tyler
Mess with the bull, you get the horns. Unitree, you're on notice. If you Send over Unitree G1 Basic for $21,000 shipping in one week and you try any funny stuff, you're getting the horns. Because this is not a house.
- [57:51]
Jordan
I would say this is like letting a clanker into the fox house.
- [57:54]
Tyler
We're all foxes now.
- [57:57]
Jordan
I think we. I think I.
- [57:59]
Tyler
This is a head in the foxhouse. The foxhole.
- [58:04]
Jordan
I'd be kind of worried leaving the G1 basic with Tyler. Presumably Tyler would be tasked with setting it up. But then you're thinking about, okay, the G1 is going to be here with Tyler potentially after hours, and I should be a little bit worried about it.
- [58:22]
Tyler
So we can train it to swipe ramp cards or something. What can we do with this?
- [58:27]
Dave
You could. Automatic gong hits.
- [58:29]
Tyler
Ooh, automatic gong hits. Sounds good. Put me out of a job. Wow. Real, real black fellow. Economic.
- [58:35]
Jordan
Dario was right.
- [58:37]
Tyler
Automate.
- [58:38]
Jordan
White collar work.
- [58:39]
Tyler
White collar work.
- [58:40]
Jordan
AKA gong hits.
- [58:41]
Tyler
White collar. And I hit a gong. That is remarkable.
- [58:44]
Jordan
I can't believe we're doing this again like we did with drones, where we're just going to let unitree just flood the market.
- [58:51]
Tyler
Yes. Where is. Where. Where are the hawks?
- [58:54]
Jordan
I'm normally. Normally, you know, against government intervention, but.
- [59:00]
Tyler
Two hour battery life. Look at this thing. We gotta get one. Tyler wants it so badly. I wonder what else you can do with it. Like, how strong is the API? Does it have like the ability to issue voice?
- [59:12]
Jordan
Okay, this is what we do. Can you replace the hands with ramp cards?
- [59:17]
Tyler
Swiping everything you get. Dangerous. Anyway, we are being joined by Shane from Polymarket in just a few minutes. In the meantime, let me tell you about what Buco capital bloke is saying on the timeline. He says we had a good thing. You stupid son of a. We had 98% gross margins and LTV to CAC ratios above 5. We were considered safer than first lien debt. Nobody questioned our terminal value or stock based compensation. We had everything we needed and it all ran like clockwork. You could have shut your mouth, funded a few new SaaS companies each year and made as much money as you needed. But you just had to blow it up. You and your pride and your ego. Oh, talking about AI. Lots of people having fun. Well, in the world.
- [59:57]
Jordan
This is good. Obviously OpenAI sent around a bunch of basically deal toys for people that spent over or used a trillion tokens with. OpenAI notion. Got one ramp got one a bunch of others. Lauren Good says this is sort of like spending a million bucks gambling. And the casino gives you a free hotel room for the night. It's close. I think that's the next leg up in the cycle.
- [60:24]
Tyler
Cognition got 1 trillion ramp. Got 1. And I was trying to do the math on how much a trillion tokens actually cost, so I could clock how much these companies are spending. ChatGPT clocked it as if they're doing GPT 3.5 Turbo. That's the cheapest, cheaper case. That's a million bucks. If it's GPT4 standard, that's $45 million. So potentially hitting. I mean, Notion has talked about how this hit their gross margins. It's not an immaterial cost, but a lot of value to the customers. And Tyler, what's the cheapest way do you have an update on how cheaply you could acquire one of these deal toys?
- [61:05]
Jordan
Yeah.
- [61:07]
Dave
So the main thing you would do is you can do batched API calls. So instead of just doing like one and then you get the response, you send like a ton. And then I think it's like within 24 hours you'll get the response back.
- [61:18]
Tyler
Do you actually do that when you run your examples?
- [61:21]
Dave
No, none of the stuff I do is.
- [61:22]
Tyler
Oh, so money just doesn't matter. You around here, you just don't care about cost optimization.
- [61:26]
Dave
I gotta be timely. But I think that is money. I think that's either 50% or 90%. And then the other thing you do is you can do cashed inputs.
- [61:33]
Tyler
Sure.
- [61:34]
Dave
Which is like. I forget which one is which, 50 or 90%. But if you combine those, then it's like massive savings. So then I think if you combine Those with. Is 3.5 Turbo the cheapest or. I feel like it's GPT5 Nano.
- [61:46]
Tyler
Yes, something like that.
- [61:48]
Dave
But I think you could probably do it for a couple thousand dollars.
- [61:51]
Tyler
I think I saw someone, maybe they were talking about 10 million tokens. 10 billion tokens. But they said $25 for 10 billion tokens. So for two grand, you could potentially get one of these deal toys that are pretty rare. You might be able to flip these, who knows? This is a piece of lore.
- [62:08]
Jordan
Did you see Matt Levine's summary of AMD and OpenAI?
- [62:11]
Tyler
Yes. Martin Shkreli put this in the Truth Zone to be clear. Let's read it. But first, let me tell you about Turbo Puffer Search. Every byte, serverless vector and full text search. Build from first PR on object storage, fast, 10x cheaper and extremely scalable. Read Matt Levine summary.
- [62:24]
Jordan
How do these negotiations negotiations go like schematically? OpenAI we would like 6 gigawatts worth of your chips to do inference. AMD Terrific. That will be 78 billion. How would you like to pay? OpenAI well, we were thinking that we would announce the deal and that would add 78 billion to the value of your company, which should cover it. AMD OpenAI AMD no, I'm pretty sure you have to pay for the chips. OpenAI watch.
- [62:47]
Tyler
Why?
- [62:48]
Jordan
AMD I don't know, it just seems wrong not to. OpenAI okay, why don't we pay you cash for the value of the chips and you give us back stock and when we announce the deal the stock will go up and we'll get our 78 billion back. AMD Here we go. AMD yeah, I guess that works. I feel like we should get some of the value. OpenAI okay, you can have half. You give us stock worth like 35 billion and you can keep the rest.
- [63:12]
Tyler
Martin Shkreli didn't like it. He said this is not at all what happened in Matt Levine is stupid. You shouldn't read him zero days. Wal Street Experience word sell. He's not happy about it.
- [63:22]
Jordan
Mogged.
- [63:22]
Tyler
Mogged.
- [63:23]
Jordan
But this is interesting. I think it's a funny take from J Boll tard on X. How hilarious is this Oracle move? Oracle makes all the AI names rip on some made up Capex guide using revenue that doesn't exist from OpenAI and now it syncs the entire space with bad news regarding AI Capex not working.
- [63:46]
Tyler
Working.
- [63:47]
Jordan
What a joke.
- [63:50]
Tyler
I mean how quickly do you expect the Capex to pay off?
- [63:53]
Jordan
Oracle sold off hard. How about this morning? Went from $290 a share to $270 a share but it's climbing back up. We may be back to where we were.
- [64:03]
Tyler
I think that's because people are reading into.
- [64:07]
Jordan
That article about the new Hindenburg research.
- [64:12]
Tyler
Potentially, but I think people corrected the record pretty quickly on that. Yeah, you were expecting high margins. It's like two weeks out from the Oracle news, maybe a month. I mean, I guess we were at the stock exchange for the Klarna IPO when the Oracle news broke, Right? Or it was then. Right? Yeah, that week. So that was just a couple weeks ago. And I mean it was definitely like the most aggressive deal ever and it was a crazy deal. But people are potentially reading too much into the near term, the near term financial impacts because it just like takes time to understand. Like if the demand shows up and more people pay and the ads monetize and more people are, you know, seeing ads on Sora or paying for credits. Like, there is a world where the economy keeps flowing back and forth, forth, and consumers are putting money into the system. And so even these circular deals work out.
- [65:11]
Jordan
You want to know something bullish?
- [65:12]
Tyler
Please. I'd love a bull.
- [65:14]
Jordan
Russia's flagship AI product is called Gigachat.
- [65:19]
Tyler
That's bearish because Russia is the bear. Right. Their mascot. That's a crazy mascot to pick. Russia just instantly bearish entire country. Wait, what is.
- [65:31]
Jordan
It's called Gigachat.
- [65:32]
Tyler
Gigachat. That's a pretty good name. All the different countries are really leaning into their sovereign AI.
- [65:39]
Jordan
You don't hear much about Russian AI, though.
- [65:41]
Tyler
No, I was wondering when they would get around to announcing something because they have all these incredible math experts. You'd think that they would be really, really good, but maybe they've been preoccupied with a bunch of other stuff going on. Geopolitical.
- [65:58]
Jordan
Yeah, I mean, they lost Nebias too, which would have been a national champion, had they not gotten into a.
- [66:04]
Tyler
That is a crazy story. Yeah, we gotta have the Nebia CEO on and dig into that. It's what a wild, wild time. Good morning, Nat Ellison. Is it Eliason. How do I pronounce that?
- [66:15]
Jordan
Nat Eliason.
- [66:16]
Tyler
Good morning.
- [66:16]
Jordan
Remember the Nat. Remember the name Bobby Ponsmart. Do we have time to get through this Willemonitis post? This looks a little long.
- [66:23]
Tyler
Yeah, this is the new meta, I think. I think the algorithm has changed on X. It used to be all about short, pithy, punchy posts, but now the 500 word long post is doing really well and so we're seeing a lot more of those. Jeremy Giffon has dropped a couple that have done very well. Well, Menidis is now getting in on the action. Let's read through it, he says. Every few weeks now a fee drunk allocator declares a company going from 0 to 2 million is not interesting. Only the ones that go from 0 to 500 million million. This is of course a very silly idea, but it is proximal to an important one. We are returning to a much older model for growth of Internet companies. Welcome to the DL Yuga. Following the dot com crash, the modern Internet company was defined by sales as its fundamental motion for growth. Scared of the business development of the 90s, companies would hire farms of thousands of SDRs to smile, dial and build pipeline ACVs across the businesses fell steadily over the decades. As we realized if we lowered the contract pipe, the contract price collective delusions like product led growth allowed increasingly lower and lower individuals on the totem pole to sign software contracts when cold called and thus increase the speed in which a business could grow, albeit in smaller and smaller steps as the discretionary spend capabilities of a random software engineer increased. This is like the bottom up adoption of software. So did the viability of product led growth and thus we cargo culted a set of growth metrics built around it time to 100 million, cloud 100 et cetera. Some good businesses were built alongside many bad ones. It's easy to think of PLG as a trauma response to the dot com and subsequent SaaS bubbles. If you lower your engine of growth to only grow in human sized chunks, you can both grow increasingly predictably that revenue and decrease the damage of any given customer imploding has on one on your entire book. The best way to think of PLG perhaps is to perhaps imagine it as the golden calf of Exodus 32 if we had the real God enterprise and we had the real God enterprise and we decided to take the easier path after we stopped, after he stopped, when he stopped speaking momentarily. The shift we are watching today, with many companies growing quickly, one to $100 million in 48 hours, and many companies growing in massive chunks, OpenAI, owning, AMD, etc. Is not a new model, but instead a return to the origin of this industry. Deals Deals are of course the origin of the Internet business itself. The Internet business, as originally built, raised money exclusive to conduct deals. The 90s were awash with channel partnerships, leasing agreements, customer book buyouts, IP sharing and washing, and all kinds of beautiful deals. Deals in all caps. The incredible Alex Dank Danko, speaking on Jackson Dahl's podcast, put this well Quote One of the interesting hallmarks of that era was that much of the genuinely forward progress a company had to make was by doing deals. The incredible stable surfaces and platforms we enjoy today from which you can just build and get growth didn't exist. Companies were ultimately dependent on business development at a much earlier and more critical stage. The path was much more milestone driven, involving major deals. For instance, you had to secure vendors for compute, buy computers, buy a database from Oracle, and also arrange distribution deals priced in than it ought to have been. Sound familiar? It certainly should. Even Oracle is still the same. These 100 to $500 million stories are not software companies growing fundamentally quicker than their predecessors. They are software companies growing in fundamentally different ways. As we return to the deal Yuga, we should expect the shape of these companies and the teams that run them to change even Further, the teams and investors that learn from history from the first great deal age will avoid the many pitfalls that come from this kind of growth. Chief amongst them the idea that partnerships and infrastructure providers much larger than you are somehow win win altruistic arrangements and not having you the device of your underdog of your undoing and hoping for the best. Welcome to the second deals era. We've never been more back. It's fun. Very similar to what.
- [70:38]
Jordan
Yeah, I mean this is what people people say about, you know in another life Sam Altman would be on Wall street being as a banker doing deals. So it is even his critics should admit that it's remarkable.
- [70:52]
Tyler
Fantastic deals guy. Remarkable. And like I think people have been so skeptical of the early deals like the Microsoft deal. It seems like that deal completely saved OpenAI. They were never going to get compute as a non profit. They had to do this insane deal to create this for profit entity. Very complicated something that requires an immense amount of greasing the wheels. And we're just seeing more and more of these founder to founder deals, no investment bankers involved. It really is the era of the high agency dealmaker. Jeremy Kaphon was talking about this. I asked Patrick o' Shaughnessy about this on the show show this idea that in the future folks with private equity backgrounds, investment banking backgrounds might be better as founders because they are more set up to be deals guys on day one as opposed to the more product focused, PLG focused, engineering focused founder of the YC 2010 era that was focused on building a product that was sticky, had a viral loop, would grow and kind of, kind of just compound and then eventually they would learn to do deals at some point but that was something that they would add on later like learning financial engineering in the second decade of your company. Now companies and founders seem to be adopting these ideas on day one for sure.
- [72:16]
Jordan
Well, there's a video that went quite viral yesterday that we can pull up in the timeline. Another illustration of the deals between Nvidia, AMD and OpenAI.
- [72:27]
Tyler
While we pull that up, let me tell you about profound. Get your brand mentioned in ChatGPT. Reach millions of consumers who are using AI to discover products and brands and we will pull up this video. Let's see it. Who, where did this come from? You just saw this on the timeline. This is, is this AI generated?
- [72:47]
Jordan
Okay, we need some audio here.
- [72:49]
Tyler
Let's see AMD, Nvidia. Is it the Three Stooges? 20, here's 10 I owe you. 10, here's the 10 I owe you. Here's the 10. Speaking of money, how about the 20.
- [73:00]
Dave
Bucks you owe me?
- [73:01]
Tyler
Oh, yeah, Well, I only got ten, so here's ten.
- [73:03]
Francois
I owe you ten.
- [73:04]
Rami
Thanks.
- [73:04]
Francois
Hey, Mo, you owe me twenty.
- [73:06]
Tyler
Well, here's ten and I'll owe you ten. You owe me twenty. Here's ten I owe you ten. Here's the ten I owe you. Here's the ten I owe you. Here's the ten I owe you. Good. Now we're all even. And speaking of money, how about the 20 bucks?
- [73:20]
Jordan
Just keeps looping. Somebody quoted this and said, Cuppy says, 25 years ago, this was called round tripping and was considered illegal. After investors suffer trillions in losses, it will probably be considered illegal again. So we will see. It's kind of the wild west right now.
- [73:41]
Tyler
Well, in non AI news for once, we have Shane from Polymarket joining the show. He's in the restream waiting room. We'll bring him in. Shane, how are you doing?
- [73:55]
Jordan
Look at that setup.
- [73:56]
Tyler
Fantastic.
- [73:57]
Jordan
Shane, can you hear us?
- [73:59]
Shane
I can hear you guys. I cannot see you guys.
- [74:01]
Jordan
Okay, okay. Well, trust that we are looking at you and smiling at you.
- [74:06]
Tyler
And you look fantastic.
- [74:07]
Jordan
You look fantastic. What a day's about you. Break down the news.
- [74:13]
Shane
It's hard not to look fantastic with this backdrop. This backdrop? Yeah, right there.
- [74:18]
Tyler
There.
- [74:20]
Shane
I have to FaceTime all my family members, be like, hey, look at that. You know, now with. With all the AI stuff, you gotta. You gotta show that it's true.
- [74:28]
Tyler
You gotta break through from the.
- [74:29]
Jordan
From the bathroom office in 2020 to the nice seat in 2025. Anything is possible.
- [74:35]
Tyler
What a run. Take us through the deal today. Take us through the news. What's the. What are the key points in the announcement?
- [74:46]
Shane
Yeah, I mean, look, it's. I've never been really like a deal guy or a guy that's very focused on, you know, I would say a lot of entrepreneurs, they're very optimizing around fundraising, etc. I really just like building things. And usually what I've found is when you get traction and when you get motion and when people start taking notice of what you do, the money usually follows. And in this case, there was a lot of interest from people who wanted to invest. And I'm very grateful and humbled by all of it. And then Jeff reached out to me and it was kind of like we got to talking. He knows markets and traditional finance better than anybody. He runs his own company that he started solo founder like myself. And there were all these ideas that we had that we could do Together and we were very like minded on it. And he was a big fan of polymark.
- [75:35]
Tyler
I.
- [75:35]
Shane
So when, when he started saying, hey, let's do something, there were a lot of synergies that came together quickly. So it's very exciting.
- [75:43]
Jordan
And this is not a token strategic investment. I mean this is very, very meaningful. I think I, correct me if I'm wrong, but this is like the single, this is the single largest investment in a, in a, in a crypto company ever.
- [75:59]
Shane
Okay, now, yeah.
- [76:05]
Tyler
Give us the actual numbers. What's the structure of the deal? Is this, this is a strategic deal. It's not like are you giving it a series number, like a letter? Like how are you actually describing the deal? I want to ring the gong for you. I want the numbers.
- [76:20]
Shane
Yeah, they're investing $2 billion.
- [76:23]
Jordan
Let's go hit that gong. There we go.
- [76:27]
Tyler
Go.
- [76:28]
Shane
Oh, the gong's from your side. I thought the gong was like a periodic New York Stock Exchange thing.
- [76:34]
Tyler
The gong is from our side. We have everywhere studio.
- [76:37]
Jordan
What, what are, what can you share about what the partnership will actually look like over the next 12, 24 months and beyond? Like, what's most exciting about it to you?
- [76:49]
Shane
I mean, look, it's right now. It's such a moment for prediction markets. It's been exciting for us to sort.
- [76:56]
Tyler
Of be.
- [76:59]
Shane
Like, you know, sit there and even two years ago it really was a category that people kept writing off and saying, oh yeah, it's an idea that makes so much sense, but it's never going to work. We're really excited that we were able to buy QC and be set up to go to enter the US market. I think it's lining up perfectly. The stars are aligning. The top timing. The timing is about as good as it could be. So on that side there's a lot in terms of data and in terms of distribution and sort of who can have access to polymarket, particularly in the US but also globally, because ICE has, you know, exchange assets all around the world. But also Jeff in particular, as he mentioned on CBC earlier, is like, he's a big believer in tokenization. He's a big believer in all assets are going to be token tokenized as a superior technology for the exchange of assets. And polymarket is the biggest consumer product that's built on tokenization under the hood. For every prediction market, it's actually tokenized. There's a yes token and no token. So there's a lot of ideas we've kicked around there. And I think ICE has incredible savvy And Jeff is incredible savvy about how you can do these things utilizing exactly existing assets and understanding sort of the existing matrix of U.S. regulation. And then where there could be pockets that there may have to be collaboration between the regulators and the innovators for how to basically do things that exist, but in a more efficient way utilizing new technology. So that's the thing that I'm definitely gonna be leaning on him for. That's not the thing that I'm. That, you know, I can't say that I'm the best at that like he, he is. But in terms of the consumer side and building the products, ICE doesn't have any consumer properties. Right. So that's where we come in. And that's where I think him and I, we have this mutual understanding, common ground of how these products could work. Very innovative guy, very forward thinking. And, you know, we can kind of see the vision in terms of polymarket.com how we can look there and he can understand the, the infrastructure and how to make it happen from the regulatory and infrastructure side.
- [79:02]
Jordan
Did you ever expect prediction markets to be in south park, to have an episode? Was that on your bingo card for this year or did that was that still a surprise?
- [79:14]
Shane
Yeah, I mean, I love South Park. Like I grew up a South park kid. I remember watching the original movie. I remember being at Best Buy and buying season two, season three on vhs. And, and look, I think that it's funny because the geopolitical markets on polymarket have proven to be extremely useful, like in the WhatsApp groups from people in the Middle east and people who are into open source intelligence, osint. They really watch polymarket like a hawk. And the sort of crux of the episode being this idea of like, you know, this sort of, well, the mother in the Jewish family, you know, bomb Gaza, like that kind of being. It's this play on, on those markets. Like it's, it's definitely pushing it, but it's also just so south park. And you know, it's obviously all in good fun, but the way that they interpreted the situation and distilled it into a South park episode, you know, you wouldn't expect anything less from them.
- [80:16]
Tyler
What about just the Internet? Intercontinental Exchange? ICE founded in 2000, backed by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Shell, Deutsche Bank, SAC General. It is the ultimate bridge to Wall Street. How important are those connections? Are you already plugged into all the Wall street firms? Is this a new pipeline for you to just Wall street generally and professionalization? Like, how does that all play out for you?
- [80:50]
Shane
Absolutely. Look, I've historically been more of a cold email guy, so I don't think that would get me that far on this street. And yeah, you know, when I talk to Jeff and co about this, like, they know everyone and everyone's a text or an email or phone call away. And that's really exciting because there's a lot of interest every time I meet somebody who's. Because, you know, from the traditional world high up, they. They love polymarket. They love what we do. They're obsessed with the data and they oftentimes track it. And, you know, it's something that polymarket saying that they look at frequently. And, you know, now one having the bridge, but also having the credibility of such a great partner, it's probably hard to underestimate how important that will be in terms of us bridging the gap, especially as we re enter the US market and we opened up for institutions.
- [81:40]
Tyler
Fantastic. Anything else?
- [81:42]
Jordan
Well, absolutely. Iconic image today of you outside the exchange.
- [81:47]
Tyler
Congratulations.
- [81:48]
Shane
You know, it's funny, like, we've had so many missed connections, right? Like, there were so many times we were gonna hop on and I was gonna be in a little booth or like a little chair in the back, and I said, you know, one time, if I'm gonna go on, if I'm gonna go on your guys pod, it's gotta be special. I gotta figure out how to mog one way or another.
- [82:06]
Tyler
Well, mog you did, Shane.
- [82:08]
Jordan
So here we are.
- [82:09]
Tyler
Thank you for everything that you do to make this show possible.
- [82:11]
Shane
I appreciate it. I'm a huge fan of what you guys do and it's awesome to see right there that the Poly Market ticker.
- [82:20]
Jordan
There it is.
- [82:21]
Shane
You guys are real champions, pioneers. Thanks so much for having me.
- [82:25]
Tyler
Have a great rest.
- [82:26]
Jordan
Great to have you on chain. Congratulations to you and the whole team.
- [82:28]
Tyler
We'll talk to you soon.
- [82:29]
Jordan
Cheers.
- [82:33]
Tyler
Those keys are fantastic.
- [82:36]
Jordan
Absolutely mogging. We have another post here. Blake Robbins said yesterday OpenAI is operating on a different level. The amount they have shipped in the past few weeks and months is incredible. True, Eric says indeed impressive. But the scattershot nature raises questions about the company's discipline and ability to support these disparate initiatives. Is OpenAI a frontier research lab, a social network operator, a commerce engine, a hardware company? Because it's hard to do all of that. Well, I would say they are a hyperscaler. If you look at any of the hyperscalers, they have a frontier research lab, they usually have a social network, they usually have a commerce engine, they usually have a hardware division and it is hard to do all of them. Well, I think that Sam is playing for keeps, right? He's, he's, you know, there's a lot of founders that wouldn't have launched a Sora as a standalone app. Right. There's a lot of founders that wouldn't acquire a company for six and a half billion dollars that doesn't have a working product yet and just kind of an idea of what they want to build. Right. But he is incredibly aggressive. He's fast becoming, becoming too big to fail. And I think that put differently if you asked, okay, this company has 800 million weekly active users. Do you think it's fair that they would experiment with the social network? Do you think it's fair that. So there's a lot of companies with far less scale that are doing this kind of range of activities. But you have to. My framework for OpenAI now is looking at them as a hyperscaler that's going to launch products all the time, some of which will work, some won't, and that's totally okay. They're just, they're experimenting, they're shipping and they're taking big swings because at this point for them to take, for them to create something that's meaningful to their business, it has to be a billion dollar opportunity.
- [84:42]
Tyler
So I agree. I have a rebuttal. But first I'm going to tell you about linear. LINEAR is a purpose built tool for planning and build products, Meet the system for Myers opportunity development, streamline issues, projects and product roadmaps. So back in GPT3, launched 2020, I was playing around in the playground and I was writing video essays at the time about companies and I wanted to create a list of companies that could potentially profile. And so back in the day there was no prompt, there was no rl, there was no RLHF. And so you had to, as Roon told us, the foundation models are complete hallucination. And so you had to write a prompt that would really set it up, up to just continue what you were saying because it was just guessing the next word and it was not very good at it. And what I did was I went to GPT3 in the playground and I typed out some of the most interesting business stories in history and I put 1 theranos 2 wework 3 lehman brothers 4 space and then it would continue to fill in based on, on your prompt that you had written and it's just trying to guess the next word. And it actually did come up with some interesting companies that weren't on my radar. And I was able to go and Google them and fact check them and understand those stories never really became part of my workflow, but I thought it was interesting. And at the time I was thinking like, this is a search engine. It's just something that I would normally have gone to Google and search for top 10 most interesting companies and I would have gotten a listicle. But GPT3 just gave me the text itself. And so for a while, my model for ChatGPT and OpenAI has been like, they're just the new Google. And my wondering is like, how much of the culture of Google is a natural outgrowth of just having a fast growing consumer web app. And if ChatGPT is growing, then will they have a bunch of 20% time projects? And so the social network operator, the commerce engine, the hardware company, like Google's tried a bunch of those. They tried Google, they tried Google Glass, those didn't work. But YouTube's a great social network loosely. And their Android phone ecosystem is a successful hardware bet. Commerce engine, certainly that's cooking at Google. And so I do wonder how much you like. I agree the scattershot nature raises questions about the company's discipline. But we've seen it play out before where if you have an engine that's growing, growing, growing, you can actually go and do a bunch of 20% time. Some of them hit, some of them don't.
- [87:24]
Jordan
Also, Sam Altman has never come out and said, focus is our highest virtue and we're just going to work on ChatGPT. It's like, okay, they're researched. Yeah, they're, you know, an infrastructure. They're becoming an infrastructure player. Right. They're going to experiment in all the different areas.
- [87:44]
Tyler
They have an API, cloud business.
- [87:45]
Jordan
Yeah, right. I think I would be interested to see if they do again, like, do they acquire someone like a Snapchat at that point, does that, does that happen?
- [87:56]
Tyler
Yeah, I don't know if they'll do adjusted. At some point they have to do a bunch of acquisitions. I would imagine they're already doing some of them. Didn't they buy statsig? Statsig and obviously other companies as well.
- [88:08]
Jordan
They announced an acquisition of a company called Joy today, the other day. Which was like a finance tool.
- [88:15]
Tyler
Yeah, yeah. So they're adding a bunch of stuff. I mean, other hyperscalers have done this in the past. I wonder. Obviously there's always a risk of being too scattered, but it is a large company and it's also interesting to look at the timeframe. Like a lot of people are viewing OpenAI as a company that started in 2023. Essentially, even though ChatGPT launched in 2022, they really feel like the OpenAI story started in 2023. It did not. The company did start in 2015 and it was a frontier research lab for now a decade. And so if you look at the timeline for Google, well, Google search launches in 1998 and then six years later in 2004 they're launching Gmail. And that's a great product and it worked out. And so should you give them credit for the time they were wandering in the wilderness as a nonprofit, or should you comp them just to when they got product market fit on ChatGPT? Maybe something in between. But there's certainly a lineage of companies that find really strong Internet product market fit, scaling, growing and then doing other other projects and not having those, not getting over their skis. Social network operator what's the real cost if SORA blows up and it never goes anywhere and they light a bunch of GPUs on fire? Well, if it fails, they won't be lighting that many GPUs on fire because nobody will be generating anything if their hardware project goes south. Like yeah, that's probably multibillion dollar investment, but a company of their scale at $500 billion with billions coming in from all sorts of different deals can probably take that hit on the chin and keep moving and keep refocusing on the main project. So I don't know how big of a worry it is, but they certainly don't seem to have been massively falling behind in the core product. We're not seeing huge churn or anything like that.
- [90:16]
Jordan
Doug From Semianalysis says OpenAI is tweeting about real interest rates. We get a new Fed chair, that's whole job is to lower rates to as low as possible. OBBB means no taxes. Money becomes really cheap. You got to invest in America at all costs. Wow, it's so clear.
- [90:33]
Tyler
Yeah, people are excited.
- [90:35]
Jordan
DJT certainly wants you to invest in America.
- [90:38]
Tyler
Yeah. Well, let me tell you about numeralhq.com sales tax on autopilot spend less than 5 minutes per month on sales tax compliance. Peter Wildeford has a forecast on how AI infrastructure spending goes over the next four years and what kind of models we'll see as a result. This is a very bullish take on AI infrastructure that I thought would be interesting to read through. I continue to assess that we are on track for models that can replace a wide variety of human labor. Sometimes four to. Sometimes four to 15 years from now, the big gap right in that singularity calculator we have going. He says. Currently the world does not have any operational 1 GW plus data centers. However, it is very likely that we will see a fully operational 1 GW data center before mid-2026. This likely will be a part of a 45-60 GW of total compute across Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, aws and anthropic, OpenAI and Oracle, Google and DeepMind and XAI. So everyone's building huge clusters. They're all investing a ton in capex and it will net out to something between 45 and 60 gigawatts next year. His median expectation is that these largest 1 gigawatt data center facilities will hold between 400 and 500,000 Nvidia Blackwell chips and be used to train 4 to the 27th flops or 4e27. So 4 times times 10 to the 27th flop model. Sometime before the end of 2027, such a model would be 10x larger than the largest model today and 100x larger than GPT4. Each individual 1 gigawatt facility would cost 40 billion to manufacture with 350 billion total industry spend across 2026. Now the big question is how confident are we on scaling up those models? There's a wide range of takes around how easy it is. Clearly we saw with GPT 4.5 and Llama Behemoth and just scaling up. You have to be very careful about what you're scaling up. The actual underlining design of the model matters a lot. By the end of 2027, he expects a fully operational 2 gigawatt facility with total AI compute across all companies reaching 90 gigawatts. That'll be a lot of inference. These 2 gigawatt facilities would come cost 95 to 100 billion dollars each and total industry spend would reach 500 to 600 billion by the end of 2028. I expect the the largest single facility to be a 3 gigawatt facility holding 1 million Nvidia Blackwells Ruben Mix 3 nuclear reactors. Something like that, yeah. Costing 150 to 165 billion dollars to build, capable of A1E28 flop training run. A1E. A1E 28 flop training run represents a computational effort thousands of times greater than what was used to create GPT4. Allowing the AI to process and learn from vastly more information. Total AI data centers would reach 130 gigawatts combined with 900 billion to a trillion spent by the AI industry over 2028. That is a lot. But that matches what everyone's saying. Everyone's marshaling the capital, everyone's planning to do that. This.
- [93:51]
Jordan
Yeah, I think we, we want to look to Meta's earnings Next. Earnings call, October 29th. Zuck is going to feel pressure to say the biggest number.
- [94:00]
Tyler
Yep.
- [94:01]
Jordan
And we should probably, we should probably stream that live through a companion stream.
- [94:07]
Tyler
It'll be fun.
- [94:09]
Jordan
I'm, I'm look, I mean I just think that's going to be a big indicator of. Do they push all the chips in?
- [94:15]
Tyler
Literally, yeah. By 2029 it starts to get very fuzzy to predict and his forecasting powers break down. Down. How AI continues to scale. Whether we've encountered data related or other algorithmic bottlenecks, what AI capabilities have already emerged and how economically valuable those AI capabilities are will be key to whether the economics favor continued scaling. Needless to say, building $150 billion individual data center campuses and spending a trillion on AI infrastructure would get very difficult to sustain financially, let alone to increase dramatically year over year. Year. I feel like the trillion dollar cluster is within reach. I mean it needs to be probably distributed across all the different companies. But these numbers don't, they're not as scary as I think. And you think about like across the.
- [95:01]
Jordan
Hyperscale, 1 trillion doesn't scare you?
- [95:03]
Tyler
No, because across the hyperscalers you have almost 20 trillion of market cap, maybe 10 trillion of market cap. And so you're looking at. Okay, so they need two to move 10% of their market cap into this project. That's not 50% of the market cap. Can they liquidate 10% of their market cap and put it towards this?
- [95:25]
Jordan
It's at current prices. And they would have to lever up significantly.
- [95:30]
Tyler
No, not significantly. 10%. Like they would need to take 10% of their equity of their.
- [95:37]
Jordan
I know, but if you have a massive correction between now and then, it's starts to be quite a bit more than 10%.
- [95:44]
Tyler
Sure. But I mean a trillion dollar spread across the mag 7 isn't. It isn't actually that much. I mean Nvidia is a $4 trillion company. They're all a trillion dollars. Right. So I mean, I agree with this conclusion. 2029, it gets crazy and then the real question is like okay, what about the $5 trillion training run or the $10 trillion training run, but just purely is the money there like the money money feels there? The less clear thing to me is this question of how AI continues to scale. Whether we will encounter data related or other algorithmic bottlenecks and then the question of well, spend thousand times more money. Are you actually getting a thousand times.
- [96:26]
Jordan
But when you look at this, it's like it's more likely that it'll be an energy bottleneck. Right?
- [96:32]
Tyler
Yeah, yeah, that's another good one.
- [96:34]
Jordan
Where are you going? To three nuclear reactors worth of energy in one year. In two years from now.
- [96:38]
Tyler
Yeah. When it takes us 30 years to build them. So yeah, there's a big, big question there.
- [96:43]
Jordan
We got to check in with the nuclear bros. Yeah. Because a lot of. Wasn't, wasn't it the last time we had Isaiah? Yeah, he was saying he was going to have the first reactor in like 12 months. Yeah, like that.
- [96:56]
Tyler
Yeah, he's working on it. So I mean a lot of the. He was going kind of mid scale, I think 10 megawatts. And so if you're like you're talking about him not just making the first one one, but then making 10,000 of those, which is a lot to generate this much electricity. We did talk to the nuclear company at Palantir Dev Day and he was saying that he's much more encouraged by bringing nuclear like the original GE plants online. The 1 GW like the large scale nuclear reactors.
- [97:30]
Jordan
Yeah. Doug's point is like energy, when a premium is placed, when there's more demand, there's more capital chasing energy. Energy will come out of the woodwork.
- [97:39]
Tyler
Yeah.
- [97:40]
Jordan
So there's Gabe in the chat says Buffett is good for 400 billion. He, he does have a lot of.
- [97:47]
Tyler
Cash right now, Right?
- [97:48]
Jordan
He has I think like 350 ish billion of cash on hand.
- [97:51]
Tyler
Can you imagine? He just gets super AGI pills.
- [97:54]
Jordan
Sam. If Sam does a deal. If Sam, if Sam can do a deal with Buffett, I mean.
- [98:01]
Tyler
I mean it's the final boss. It's the final boss. There's no one bigger that he hasn't been able to do a deal with. I mean he even did a deal with Elon back in the day. He's done deals with every single person at various times. Pretty much, yeah.
- [98:16]
Jordan
What if Buffett ends up owning all the data centers because they just get super levered up and just go bankrupt. Just buys them for pennies.
- [98:24]
Tyler
I can see it.
- [98:24]
Jordan
I mean he loves rail, he loves infrastructure become compute.
- [98:29]
Tyler
Yeah.
- [98:30]
Jordan
Berkshire just becomes the next hyperscaler.
- [98:33]
Tyler
It would be so insane if Buffett's vindicated and just like his model holds forever.
- [98:40]
Jordan
I mean it's pretty much Lindy. It's held for his whole career. It's pretty lindy at this point.
- [98:45]
Tyler
Can you imagine? He just winds up owning every power plant in America.
- [98:51]
Jordan
It's so crazy. So he just dies. Berkshire is up 2% over the the past six months.
- [98:57]
Tyler
Let's go.
- [98:57]
Jordan
So 2.2% to be clear. Hit that gong for Buff.
- [99:02]
Tyler
Congratulations. 2% gain. Sending a lot of cash.
- [99:07]
Jordan
Lot of cash. The market cap is just basically three times their cash on hand.
- [99:15]
Tyler
Wow. Three times their cash on hand.
- [99:18]
Jordan
In other news, Elon names Anthony Armstrong as the new XAI cfo. Strong name.
- [99:26]
Tyler
Armstrong strong arms the financial markets during complicated fundraise at xai. The New York Post headlines write themselves. Let me tell you about not Xai, but Fin AI, the number one AI engine for customer service. Number one in performance benchmark, number one in competitive bake offs.
- [99:44]
Jordan
Number one ranking on G2 chat. Mark in the chat is asking about TVPN merch. This first merch run we did, we didn't sell. We just gave it away somewhat randomly. We're making more. We actually have a design meeting right after the show today to get into it. So it is coming this next time. We will make it available for the world and the chat will get first access to it for sure.
- [100:12]
Tyler
Yeah, we'll drop it right at the end of an episode.
- [100:14]
Jordan
I got to stop wearing it so.
- [100:16]
Tyler
That I know you're teasing.
- [100:17]
Jordan
Everyone's uptick. Teasing.
- [100:20]
Tyler
David Holes, the founder of Midjourney says my previous startup Leap Motion made the best hand tracking to this day. And an amazing open source AR headset North Star. Now the tech is getting deployed by Globus.
- [100:33]
Jordan
Great name.
- [100:34]
Tyler
Surgical to surgical people.
- [100:36]
Jordan
Oh, I work for Globus Corp. Oh, what Oh, I work for the Globus megacorp. I work for the Globus. Globus center of international business.
- [100:47]
Tyler
Globus is a great name. Well, we do business around the globe and in the United States, globe U.S. globus.
- [100:57]
Jordan
Globus.
- [100:58]
Tyler
Globus.
- [100:59]
Jordan
Globus.
- [100:59]
Tyler
We gotta get the CEO of Globus on this. Sounds like a great company. They are deploying these AR headsets to surgical theaters around the world. 85 degrees.
- [101:08]
Jordan
Globus is an $8 billion company undervalued just on the value of the trademark alone. Globus. Great hit, great hit.
- [101:17]
Tyler
Let's hear for Globus. We're huge Globus fans here. This is a very cool tech. It makes a ton of sense in a medical setting. Obviously you're not wearing the headset for fun all day. It's a professional environment. There's always been enterprise applications here and of course it's A medical device and it's adding a ton of value to a high paid doctor's routine. You can probably put the best, most cutting edge technology in there. If it's 10k, it's probably cheaper than the chair that you sit on in a medical setting. Congrats to David Holz for being on an absolute run. The Leap Motion story is fascinating. I dug into it a little bit. It seemed like they were about to sell the company to Apple. And then Apple had printed welcome letters to everyone on the Leap Motion team. And then something happened. The deal fell through at the last minute. David was like, you know, in and out. Had a really rough run with venture capitalist, then went back to midjourney. Didn't raise the dime. You love to see it. Bootstrap founder and him and Mark Andreessen were going back and forth. Did you see that yesterday?
- [102:24]
Jordan
No, I missed it.
- [102:25]
Tyler
So David Hulse posted something to the effect of like, hey, any other Bootstrap founders in SF to call Midjourney a bootstrap company? I mean it is a bootstrap company. They haven't raised venture but. But it's like the biggest company ever.
- [102:38]
Jordan
Oh, I did see Mark and Mark's.
- [102:40]
Tyler
Like me, I bootstrapped a 16Z.
- [102:42]
Jordan
Like I own hundred hundreds of millions revenue. Love to see it. Yeah, I didn't see this Yesterday either but US is taking a 10% stake in Trilogy Metals. This company, it was a $480 million Canadian dollar market cap company company.
- [103:02]
Tyler
Okay.
- [103:03]
Jordan
Yesterday. It is now 1.63 billion Canadian dollars.
- [103:08]
Tyler
Well metal. So that's exciting.
- [103:09]
Jordan
How many? I don't know. What the exchange rate is probably pretty rough.
- [103:13]
Tyler
I have no idea. Well, let me tell you about adeo. Customer relationship Magic. ADEO is the AI native CRM that builds scales and grows your company to the next level.
- [103:22]
Jordan
Next level CRM.
- [103:24]
Tyler
Tim Cook is likely to step down as Apple's CEO according to Bloomberg. John Turner, who I'm dying to have on the show, gotta make it happen. Get to him before he becomes CEO. Potentially. Apple's senior vice president of hardware engineering is expected to take over. Interesting because you don't see him in all the keynotes. He's not the biggest face, but he's clearly doing something right at Apple. And you know, for all the discussion over, did they get AI right or whatever? Like the hardware is good.
- [103:52]
Jordan
Nominative determinism. Turn us around.
- [103:57]
Tyler
Turn us around. Okay, I see what you're doing there. Yeah. Like it. Bloomberg notes that Apple will now likely Johnny Appleseed Tim Cooked we know this Tim cooked.
- [104:10]
Jordan
I saw a graphic of like all the different products that Tim Cook has like you know, overseen and it's actually remarkable. I think he will be. While he certainly isn't being celebrated in the AI era, he will be celebrated in the fullness of time.
- [104:30]
Tyler
Yeah, there's two.
- [104:31]
Jordan
And while I think he's dramatically underpaid. Yeah I hope that the history books will remember his name for just exceptional execution. On Steve's vision that was Steam. Steve's visible vision.
- [104:52]
Tyler
Well whatever your view on Apple, whether you're long or short, get on public.com, investing for those that take it seriously. They got multi asset investing, industry leading yields. They're trusted by millions. I have some.
- [105:02]
Jordan
And they just launched direct indexing which is very cool specifically because it allows you to, if you have outperformance with one stock, underperformance with another, you can actually recognize that those losses.
- [105:16]
Tyler
Oh, interesting.
- [105:17]
Jordan
And so it can be more tax efficient way to get exposure to a.
- [105:22]
Tyler
Broad swath of companies. Interesting in one go. Cool. I have a bit of cognitive dissonance about Apple. On the one hand apparently they have this like belief or something that Bloomberg was reporting that they don't believe like chatbots are going to be a dominant form factor. Like they've really leaned back in terms of chatbots series has kind of been slow. I've been trying to use Apple intelligence to query ChatGPT and it's still like I have to click a button every time. It's very like it doesn't seem like they're really moving quickly and it's been like years now since ChatGPT has come out and I would have liked a deeper integration on day one. They could have bought something, they could have trained their own model. Like there are so many companies that have been able to catch up. It doesn't feel like it's complete rocket science. The narrative of like the foundation model commoditizing. Even if they have something that's not at GPT5 or Claude 4.5 sonnet or even Gemini 2.5 level, like it would still be better and it would improve my experience but they've really leaned back on that. So that's like a really, really clear like bear case for like they're not winning AI. And then at the same time whenever we talk about hardware and the next, the next devices we just keep coming back to well, not only is the hardware extremely good and sticky and just the best devices and the best supply chain and Tim Cook's done a fantastic Job of managing the tariff battles and whatnot. But they also have imessage which feels like an incredibly powerful social network that is very, very hard to rip people out of.
- [106:59]
Jordan
Social graph.
- [107:00]
Tyler
Social graph. And so when we demo smart glasses.
- [107:03]
Jordan
Or yesterday, somebody was posting yesterday, Apple better start moving faster. And it was in reference to ChatGPT is like booking.com integrations.
- [107:13]
Tyler
Yeah.
- [107:14]
Jordan
And it was fairly, you know, it was getting quite a lot of engagement. But I was surprised by that considering that Apple's never been able to really directly tax like retail. Right. That's. They don't, they don't get a percentage of every. They don't take a cut of meta.
- [107:30]
Tyler
Well, they do take a cut of booking.com in the sense that that booking pays Google, Google pays Apple.
- [107:36]
Jordan
Yeah. But it's way less. That revenue is not necessarily directly threatened because if Google has more, they're happy to keep paying their version of the Apple tax. But again, it's not like Apple is getting billions of dollars a year from Amazon and they would suddenly not be getting that if ChatGPT starts dominating. Right.
- [108:00]
Tyler
Yeah. Yeah. Maybe what the move internally or the mood internally is at Apple is something like they don't see AI or LLMs or chatbots as disruptive to Apple's hardware plans. They think that even in a post AGI world, people will still be carrying iPhones. And so they can just sit and wait until they get some foundation lab to come to them and say, we're going to pay you $10 billion a year to be the default. And they're just like, yeah, we'll just wait and you come to us today. But we're not, we're not doing the deal until. And so like it's, it's going to be uncomfortable for customers until someone ponies up.
- [108:42]
Jordan
Yeah. It still feels hard for me to imagine a world where Siri is just replaced by another brand. Like what Siri does functionally in terms of being an assistant layer on top of the hardware device. It feels would. It feels very unbelievable to me that Apple would say like, we're going to let this other assistant directly integrate throughout the entire device. Like that feels like a big step. It does because the phone in many ways already was operating as like an assistant. Right. It's like the center of your world. It can do anything you want to do in your digital life on your behalf. It's sort of. And so giving up that. Giving that up feels major. But yeah, I think we have to see more announcements out of Apple this year on this front. I Know, based on the last, they still have longer time horizons internally around their like AI turnaround. Right? They're not saying we're fixing this this year. It's very much like we're fixing this over the next 24 months. And again, I still stand by Apple and believe that the competitive threats OpenAI just doesn't feel like a legitimate hardware threat today.
- [110:03]
Tyler
No, not at all. Because of the lock in around the Apple ecosystem. And it does feel like Apple might be looking at AI more as a profit pool pool. And once that profit pool gets really big, then they're going to want to go after it and they will have a ton of leverage at that moment and so they'll be fine. But just chat interactions are not generating tens of billions of dollars in profit yet. But Google search is. And so Apple says, hey, we got to go get a cut of Google search. They did and they've been very successful there. Once the profit pool of chat interfaces becomes really big, Apple will probably say, hey, we gotta get a cut of that. And maybe at that point we will invest. But we understand the economics and we're not supply constrained on data centers and so we don't have to pay a high margin. We can do Apple silicon chips for our inference or something, or our own custom model. There's a million different ways that they can get their fairish share of that market when the time is right because they will still have the leverage and they don't see that their leverage is decreasing because people are not churning from iPhones based on the lack of ChatGPT integration or the lack of LLM integration. Even though it's like a pretty crazy feature to be missing in 2025, it just still hasn't really hurt them. I bought a new iPhone. I didn't sweat.
- [111:25]
Jordan
I'm still waiting for my iPhone that I order. I'm waiting for my iPhone that I ordered weeks before. John just walked into a store and bought an iPhone off the shelf.
- [111:33]
Tyler
Skill issue, skill issue.
- [111:36]
Jordan
Unbelievable. Unbelievable.
- [111:37]
Tyler
The iPhone was delivered to me.
- [111:39]
Jordan
Here I am mandated, like, wow, there is so much demand for Apple, the new iPhone that they can't deliver me at one.
- [111:48]
Tyler
I mean to be clear, like there was only one in stock that I was able to purchase and it just happened to be a model that I was happy with, but I didn't get to pick a color or anything that I was just like, yeah, just give me what you have. Anyway, speaking of iPhone apps, open up your eight sleep app and tell me how you slept last night because you had a Tummy ache from lack of alcohol consumption. I was boozing it up with the white wine at the luxurious event and I slept for seven hours and got an 84. I did pretty well.
- [112:22]
Jordan
I slept for five hours.
- [112:24]
Tyler
56.
- [112:24]
Jordan
Five hours, 56.
- [112:26]
Tyler
Five hours. Wow. Oh, 56 minutes. Okay. That's close to six hours. Yeah.
- [112:31]
Jordan
And my eight sleep is very concerned about my health.
- [112:34]
Tyler
Oh, no. Well, did you get over 100?
- [112:38]
Jordan
I got a 75.
- [112:38]
Tyler
Then you know what you gotta do, Jordan.
- [112:40]
Jordan
I know what I gotta do.
- [112:40]
Tyler
Let's go.
- [112:42]
Jordan
I win credit where credit's done.
- [112:43]
Tyler
I've been on the run. I've been doing very well recently. Anyway, Mick franchisee shares. I remember this Happy Meal promo back in 1991 for Earth Day. You could ask for a free tree at McDonald's, no purchase necessary, and they would give you a sapling, I guess. Pretty cool to see. Apparently some of these MC trees over three days later, 30 years later, have grown into behemoths. And so after 50 years, this man's family is moving out of his childhood home. In the 90s, McDonald's gave out pine seedlings for Earth days. And look at this tree. It's now 30 years old. What a beautiful tree. Tree.
- [113:23]
Jordan
My happiest childhood memory. Yeah, with McDonald's, they had a deal with Sugar bowl that if you bought anything at McDonald's and you brought the receipt to Sugar bowl, you could get a $5 lift ticket.
- [113:35]
Tyler
Okay.
- [113:36]
Jordan
And I was doing that all day. I mean, that was like the greatest trade of all time. You get a, you get like a McLurry. This is a thing. And then you get a $5 lift ticket.
- [113:44]
Tyler
You used to be able to take a cola and go to. You used to be able to take a Coca Cola can and go to Six Flags for cheap. There were a bunch of these like cross promotional deals that were going on. I think this is a great merch idea. I think some startups should do this. If you're super not AGI pilled, give away a tree sapling and be like, yeah, this tree's still going to be around. It's not going to get paperclipped. I'm long humanity. Keep thinking, folks.
- [114:10]
Jordan
Keep thinking.
- [114:10]
Tyler
This also reminds me of our idea for merch, the Bonsai tree. I really like the idea of sending everyone a bonsai tree to remind them that progress is measured in decades and you should never stop working, keep grinding. Anyway, what else is going on? Do we ever cover this?
- [114:29]
Jordan
This is something that's probably worth mentioning. Jay Bull says, here's the thing with today's OpenAI pump, Elon is b u t t h u r t. He hates Sam. Sam is getting all the attention these days and nobody cares about Elon anymore. I fully expect the mother of all pumps from Elon sooner than later because he's a narcissist and no way he doesn't do it.
- [114:51]
Tyler
What a funny way to frame like what happens in the capital markets. Like oh yeah, like they're going to do a pump because they're spike. It's like spite pump, spite pump. What about just like building something that.
- [115:05]
Jordan
Delivers value And Tesla's at an all time high right now.
- [115:09]
Tyler
I mean the roadster, the Roadster video dropped yesterday. Over the weekend it looks you're 100% going to get one. I'm so excited. Roads.
- [115:18]
Jordan
It's actually having the aesthetics of a supercar but having great self driving, that's a recipe for a hit.
- [115:26]
Tyler
Wait, we have the perfect guest to talk about the Tesla Roadster. We have the. Is it the CEO of dupont registry joining us.
- [115:33]
Jordan
Corrected. Tesla's not at an all time high. Peaked last year year. But getting close, getting close.
- [115:39]
Tyler
Well, we have our next guest in the restream waiting room.
- [115:43]
Jordan
Absolutely pumped for this.
- [115:44]
Tyler
Oh, look at this.
- [115:45]
Jordan
What's happening.
- [115:45]
Tyler
Fantastic background.
- [115:47]
Jordan
Great, great setup.
- [115:48]
Tyler
Thanks for having me. How you doing?
- [115:50]
Jordan
We couldn't have said yes faster to having on the show. I think I'm a daily active user.
- [115:57]
Tyler
100% if you don't registry of the.
- [116:00]
Jordan
Products and yeah, super excited to get the update from, from you.
- [116:04]
Francois
Thank you for having me guys.
- [116:06]
Tyler
Yes, please kick us off with an introduction on yourself and actually describe the company for anyone who might not know.
- [116:12]
Francois
Yeah, sure. So I joined the company two years ago. As you will hear from my accent, I'm not from Paris, Texas. I was born and raised in France, came to the US 16 years ago, started my career in the luxury and tech world with Louis Vuitton and moved two years ago to to lead dupont Registry Group. We're going through a major transformation while disrupting the luxury automotive industry. The group has been building for the past 40 years amazing trust towards the audience of car enthusiasts and car collectors. Today we're the only one place where any car collector can find the product of their passion. And we're transforming the industry while building a brand new tech platform to have a for ecosystem of dealership and clients, a way for them to transact online. We're very excited about it. The market opportunity is huge and the group is, is moving in the right direction.
- [117:14]
Tyler
What what's the shape of the business now and then how much do you want to move to online platforms?
- [117:20]
Jordan
Is is I want one click checkout.
- [117:23]
Tyler
Yeah like how far does this go?
- [117:26]
Francois
I want one click checkup too. And this is what we are working towards. So the group has been the foundation of the group is again 40 years of legacy and trust. We have today amazing brand within our portfolio events that are gathering all the enthusiasts and car collectors, some of them the most affluent car collectors in the world. And we want to use that foundation and the data that we've been accumulated for years to are to build really an omnichannel tech platform that will allow anyone when they see a product and a car that they want to be able to purchase it online and get delivered at their home. This is what we're building on right now and the recent investors that we announced today that brings capital to the company. We're going to use that capital to build that tech platform. So expect a lot of new changes in the next few years.
- [118:22]
Jordan
Else what any you know what is what I kind of you mentioned events more seamless transactions. That all makes sense. Are you guys planning anything on the auction side or you feel like that is well served by the industry today?
- [118:39]
Francois
No, no, no. It's. It's definitely something we have in mind. It's part of so of our where I came from in the luxury world.
- [118:48]
Tyler
It's.
- [118:48]
Francois
It's all about the omnichannel and being being taking care of our clients wherever they want to buy and whenever they want to buy. So if you look today in the car space the, the auction piece is quite important and we are launching in a in a few weeks our own Dupont Registry live auction platform that will support our audience and allow us and our dealers to sell their cars. It's going to be a disruptive one. You will see A couple of announcements are coming in the next few.
- [119:18]
Tyler
How do you think about defining the tone, the vibe around what type of cars make it onto the platform. It feels like dollar's a dollar. You could have every car on there but you have to define the brand somehow. So how do you think about what is an appropriate car to work with and how do you. How do you let someone down if they bring something that's just not quite there? A little bit too not special enough.
- [119:50]
Francois
To me we don't let anyone down because at the core of our audience is there is passion. So whether you're talking about and we had someone the other day from Eastern Europe that rebuilt the Dacia from His father there was a strong passion about that Dacia and we actually talked about it and with Petrolicious, one of our brand, we, we, we did a movie about this, this guy. So to me it's, it's all about that passion component. Of course for the past 40 years we've been the leading marketplace and our positioning is luxury and high end luxury and we want to continue to go there. But my job is not to say no to my clients. It's to be able to welcome them in our ecosystem and serve them and make sure that they evolve with us throughout their, their collectors journey.
- [120:35]
Jordan
Give us a high level view of the current state of the automotive industry. We obviously are, we're car enthusiasts ourselves but cover tech about a thousand times more closely than the automotive world. But seems like we're at a very interesting time right now. You have pressure on the Chinese market, you have trade wars, you have back.
- [120:56]
Tyler
And forth on electrification.
- [120:58]
Jordan
Yeah, electrification that enthusiasts have certainly not overall not been huge fans of. You've also seen the massive depreciation on that front. If you're an automotive enthusiast, nobody wants to buy a car that might look pretty and drive well, but if it's going to depreciate 40% in the first year, it's just not, you're never going to really get that enthusiast love. So I'm curious, what kind of trends are you tracking most closely and kind of new activity over the next 12 months?
- [121:34]
Francois
Yeah, it's a very good question. So all you mentioned does not really affect us today. We're in the used cars, luxury space and, and we're in the business of. Our clients are looking for something they want, not something they need. So from, from a pure purchase funnel standpoint, they are not really affected today by tariffs and, and otherwise. You will see in the next few weeks. We're partnering with Boston Consulting Group and we're going to release a luxury car market report. Oh, we've seen first few things in that, in that report we're talking about $100 billion market. So it's going to be a, it's quite interesting. There is a huge market opportunity, not at all digital today. What's interesting too is that we see that electrification is not there. There is nothing in. If you're looking at the luxury car market, people are looking for performance, they're looking for fun, they're not looking at their daily driver. So they will look more for that car behind me.
- [122:30]
Jordan
Yeah.
- [122:30]
Francois
A 2001 Ferrari 550 Maranello than an electric car.
- [122:35]
Jordan
Yeah, yeah. The Other thing I think is worth calling out part of your guys opportunities is like I have bought, I've purchased a number of cars sight unseen online and maybe that's just because I was born in the, you know, I was born in 1995. I grew up purchasing everything on the Internet. I have no problem seeing a video of a car. I might get a remote PPI done on it to have that confidence. But I continuously am happy to purchase cars out of state wherever I don't need to see them. I've done that I think at least three or four times at this point and I expect to do that many more times in my life. Do you think that that is part of your guys opportunity and that the new generation of car owners and enthusiasts are just willing again, it doesn't matter if the spec you want is out of stage state. Great. I have no, you know, no problem kind of purchasing.
- [123:29]
Francois
Yeah, it's actually very interesting. Today we see that about 99% of the purchase decision starts online. It takes a couple of months for anyone to decide which cars they want to buy. And there is a lot of online research yet less than 1% of those transactions are happening online. So there is, there is a lot of potential to disrupt the market and disrupt the industry. Industry. When you're talking about buying a gas site unseen and this is the power of our brand and our ecosystem. We have the trust from millions of people that have been, you know, looking at our brand and coming to our brand for the past 40 years and they trust the brand to show them the right product with the right condition and be transparent about the product. And this is what we're offering at the national audience for the US you'll be able to buy a car from California, get it delivered in New York York and behind the scene. We will be the intermediate to facilitate that transaction and make sure that you trust the seller and the buyer and trust both parties.
- [124:27]
Tyler
How do you think about the next generation getting into cars? What's different about Gen Z or Millennial car collectors? Are they going less far back into historical or retro cars? Or does every generation just love the car that they had on the poster in their bedroom forever and you're kind of locked in a time capsule? Or is there something unique and different about the Millennial generation or the Gen Z generation as opposed to the Gen Xers or the Boomers?
- [125:06]
Francois
I think there is something unique is that they are discovering the luxury car market through experiences and community. And that's what we are doing at the group. We're Organizing many events every year year to build that community, to continue fostering the dream within the community. From a purchase standpoint as any, as any other car enthusiast, you will start with the car that was that you had as a poster in your bedroom when you were 14 and that will be your first car. But then you're going to evolve throughout your collection. The good thing is that today we're seeing a transfer of wealth between generation. The passion is also transferring. So we're actually seeing that our audience is getting younger. And definitely to your point, the audience is ready and they are used to buy those products online and luxury products online. And this is where we're going to offer them that ability.
- [125:57]
Tyler
How are you thinking about marketing and content production? I engage with DuPont Registry on AXE actually. I see every new auction and there's a lot of facts and interesting details in there. It's very interesting to me. But there's so much that you can do with cars when you're marketing a platform because the cars themselves are interesting. Like that car behind you. I could watch a 20 minute video about it. It's fascinating. I probably have by other creators. How are you thinking about partnering with creators, either sponsoring content or bringing people in house agencies? How do you think about the correct shape for just raising the awareness of doing part.
- [126:39]
Francois
It's, it's, it's all about stories to me. We need to tell stories between a driver and his cars. That's what we're doing with one of our brand, Petrolicious. Every Friday we have a new movie about a car story.
- [126:49]
Tyler
Cool.
- [126:50]
Francois
This is what we want to do. We want to make sure that we, we tell the story of the enthusiast community. We tell the story of the car collectors and how they build their collection from the first purchase until, until their, their latest investment. And this is really how we're today, how we're targeting our content strategies, refocusing on that.
- [127:10]
Tyler
Very cool, Jordan. Anything else?
- [127:11]
Jordan
Amazing. We'll send you some posts after this. But we've featured Dupont Registry thousands of times in our early episodes. It was a core part of the content.
- [127:23]
Tyler
Please never stop posting on X. It is the best little drip feed. It just sprinkles itself in with all the other tech news and I see it and I love it. And I usually tag a friend and I say, you should get this car.
- [127:34]
Jordan
Well, yeah, I can't. I'm very excited you guys have again, you know, it's just a daily active user. I'm very happy that you guys will have more, you know, investment and let US know if we can help you recruit anybody in on the technical side.
- [127:50]
Tyler
Share the terms of the deal, how much was raised, anything like that. Do you have any numbers to share for us?
- [127:55]
Francois
No, unfortunately we don't disclose financial numbers. What I can tell you is Francois is is one of the top collectors in the world as well as very well known race car drivers. He brings a lot of validation of our strategy. He's a big tech guy and he loves tech as well. He sees what we are building from a tech and AI standpoint with the data we have and we're very happy that he's on board with this.
- [128:24]
Jordan
But one number you guys reached Unicorn stat. That's correct. Right?
- [128:29]
Francois
Yes.
- [128:29]
Tyler
Yes.
- [128:30]
Jordan
There we go. Hit that gong. John, Congratulations. There we go. You'll appreciate this. We were waiting for the right car to put this on. So this game is available.
- [128:44]
Tyler
599.
- [128:45]
Jordan
Yeah. Yeah.
- [128:47]
Tyler
Well, thank you.
- [128:49]
Jordan
No, yeah, another one.
- [128:51]
Tyler
They're rare these days.
- [128:52]
Jordan
Awesome. Thank you so much for coming on and congratulations.
- [128:55]
Francois
Thank you for having us.
- [128:56]
Tyler
We appreciate it. We'll talk to you soon. Cheers. And if you're looking for a luxury watch to go with your luxury car, you know where to go. Get bezel.com. your Bezel Concierge is now available to source you any watch on the planet. Seriously, any watch.
- [129:11]
Jordan
Add cars. Bezel.
- [129:12]
Tyler
Tyler, what do you think about this GPT image one mini post angel is saying they didn't fix consistency. Apparently the prompt was remove all the ingredients from the burger and keep only the top and bottom buns. Leave a gap between them. Keep keeping the same spacing as if the fillings were still inside. Why are you laughing?
- [129:31]
Jordan
Sorry. Taylor with a deep cut he says Dupont registry is gonna love my Nissan Murano Play. Let's hit the gong. This is most underrated car on so good.
- [129:45]
Tyler
What other convertible SUV's two door are you getting? A Range Rover. Evoke.
- [129:51]
Jordan
We really botched it. Not. There's one for sale right now with almost 100,000.
- [129:55]
Tyler
They're available.
- [129:56]
Jordan
It's for $10,000 and it's honestly a great production car.
- [130:00]
Tyler
You lean out the corner, lean out the side, take some video of the other cars. It's a great production.
- [130:05]
Jordan
We got to pick one up. Wild car. It's a V6. Give it up for V6s.
- [130:10]
Tyler
That's not bad.
- [130:11]
Jordan
Underrated four solemn.
- [130:15]
Tyler
But Tyler, did you see this post about the remove the toppings from the burger. What do you think's going on here? Does this push your AGI timeline out or pull it in? What's going on here.
- [130:26]
Dave
I mean I think just from this like I think we can probably just assume that like Nano Banana is. There's some kind of architecture difference.
- [130:33]
Tyler
Sure.
- [130:33]
Dave
Where it's not just like doing diffusion on the entire image.
- [130:36]
Tyler
Yeah.
- [130:36]
Dave
I mean maybe it is.
- [130:37]
Tyler
It might have like tool use and I feel like tool use has got to come to to image generation soon. To just be like for this prompt you actually just need to cut one half of the image out and cut the other half and just stitch them together using basically like Figma or something like the basic lasso tool is like what you need. So just give the AI image generator that instead of trying to re render the entire image.
- [131:03]
Jordan
Yeah.
- [131:04]
Dave
And like maybe that like kind of tool use was only in the training step and it's like kind of been distilled into the weight somehow.
- [131:09]
Tyler
Yeah.
- [131:10]
Dave
But it does seem like there's some. It looks like it's just segmenting something out and then it just does kind of inpainting on that part and then it just gives you the new image where GPT is. Very clearly. It's doing the whole image.
- [131:22]
Tyler
Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. Sean says vision reasoning is far from a solved issue. I'm very excited to see where that goes. It feels like tool use and reasoning, all that's coming to image but just slowly it's going to roll out slowly. I demoed one image generator project that was clearly cutting out pieces of the image because the grain was even the same and it wasn't rerendering the face. And so you could say make this a gigachad or a bodybuilder and it would add the muscles but you'd look at you zoom in on the face and it would be pixel perfect. And it's like that's not re rendered. Like you can just tell Anyway. Grok is still on a tear on open router. One trillion tokens every three hours. That's a lot of plaque. They're doing well. We already dug into the Grox stuff. That's fun. And KSA says the dumbest person you know is currently being told you're absolutely right. Right by ChatGPT. This is a repost. Someone else posted this. We talked about this. Somebody just found a banger and just re reappeared.
- [132:27]
Jordan
I told you that yesterday. You said you did. You said I finally October hits and suddenly I'm craving pumpkin everything. Binge watching horror movies and planning the ultimate costume. Who's with me on turning this month into pure spooky magic? I said you're absolutely Right, John?
- [132:41]
Tyler
Yeah. Compound 248 says, if I am Sundar Pichai, I will bury all competing foundational models in negative gross margin tokens for eternity. I will never take my foot off the price in gas to merely compete. I will force you to dilute your equity into oblivion. Sam will drown in my tsunami of cost. So, very well written piece.
- [133:04]
Jordan
The dilution is real.
- [133:06]
Tyler
Dilution seems real. Certainly. Yeah. It's interesting. I talked to somebody a long time ago who was like, there was a moment at maybe AWS or maybe GCP or one of them where there was the option to get in a price war and they chose not to. And so all of the hyperscalers, all of the clouds have.
- [133:27]
Jordan
It's like the soda company, Right. If they got in a price war, it would just suck all the profits out of the industry for sure.
- [133:33]
Tyler
There's that. There's also just the way I heard it described to me was if you're a CFO, you're just kind of like, but I want 30% margins. That's my goal. So why would I do low margins when my goal is 30% margins? And so it's almost just like kind of hard coded into the fabric of these financial institutions or the finance functions at the large companies is that it's like, yeah, there's like this world where we get into this price war and there's risk, like, maybe we could win, but we could also just continue to get 30% margins. So I don't know if this will play out this way, maybe on the API side, but. Tyler, have you noticed any real price fight going on in the foundation model layers? They're all pretty price competitive, right? On a per million token basis, right?
- [134:22]
Dave
Yeah, they're all pretty close. I would say maybe in of terms, throttic is a little bit more expensive.
- [134:26]
Tyler
More expensive. But it's supposed to be a better model.
- [134:29]
Jordan
Yeah.
- [134:29]
Dave
And it's like, if you look back, it's like, oh, the models are staying the same price, but it's just because you keep updating to the new model. Like, if you're using GPT 3.5 Turbo, it's like obviously super, super cheap now compared to what it was.
- [134:42]
Tyler
Yeah.
- [134:42]
Dave
So there's something there, but I don't know.
- [134:46]
Tyler
Well, Bari Weiss dropped a letter to all CBS News employees and there's some debate in the comments as to whether or not this was AI generated.
- [134:58]
Jordan
Really? What was the call out?
- [135:01]
Tyler
There are EM dashes, but that's it. And so I'll read it. And I think she wrote it herself. But she says, dear colleagues, I am thrilled and humbled to be writing you as the new editor in chief of CBS News. Growing up, CBS was a deep family tradition. Whenever I hear that tick, tick, tick or trumpet fanfare, it sends me right back to our den in Pittsburgh. The opportunity to to build on that legacy with you, Hyphen, and to renew it in an era that so desperately needs it. Hyphen is an extraordinary privilege. Right now. I imagine you all have some questions. I do too. My goal in the coming weeks, days and weeks, is to get to know you. I want to hear from you about what's working, what isn't, and your thoughts on how we can make CBS News the most trusted news organization in America and the world. I'll approach it the way any reporter would hyphen, with an open mind, a fresh notebook and an urgent deadline. She drops the Oxford comma. This feels extremely human written to me. And of course it should because she's been a writer for a decade way before LLMs were a thing. So why would she lose that ability to do that? She has a couple. She has 10 points that she defines journalism around it, reports on the world as it actually is. It's fair, fearless and factual.
- [136:09]
Jordan
You can say journoism.
- [136:11]
Tyler
Journoism uses all the tools of the digital area that understands the best way to serve America is to endeavor to present the public with facts first and foremost. I look forward to meeting many of you in the days ahead and listening and learning to you. I am profoundly honored to join you M. Dash and I can't wait to get started with gratitude and excitement. Barry Seems very. Seems very like well written. I don't know. Gold is up at $4,000 for the first time ever. Ever. It's a record run for futures. Comes amid concerns about the economy's outlook. Gold has been on such a run since 2000. A little bit of a sell off post GFC but has been on an absolute tear going from $2000 per troy ounce to over 4000 in just a few years. Gold soared to $4000 a troy ounce for the first time, signaling an investor rush into an alternative action assets at a time of concern about the outlook for the US economy. The price of precious metals has surged this year more than it did during some of America's biggest crises, raising more than 50%. Futures run up in 2025 has outpaced rallies during the pandemic and the 2007. 2009 recession. Not since the inflationary shock of 1979 has gold catapulted so much higher in a year.
- [137:33]
Jordan
There's been, I think I look at the gold chart and I think I'm in danger. The US dollar is in danger.
- [137:41]
Tyler
Yep. Bitcoin was at an all time high last year or yesterday too. Everyone is flying to other assets, whether it's AI, stocks, energy, bitcoin, gold. Everyone wants something else. But what a run for gold.
- [137:59]
Jordan
We have our next guest. We do stream. Waiting room. We have Rami from Even Up. Let's bring him on in to the tv.
- [138:08]
Tyler
How are you?
- [138:09]
Jordan
Welcome to the show.
- [138:10]
Rami
Hey guys, how's it going?
- [138:12]
Jordan
It's great to see you. We're doing great. We got our gong ready for you.
- [138:16]
Tyler
Yes. Introduce yourself, the company and any of the news today.
- [138:21]
Rami
My name is Rami. I'm the CEO and co founder of Evenup. We are happy to announce our $150 million Series E LED by vessel customer.
- [138:30]
Jordan
There we go. Congratulations. Yeah. Break down the company history. Yeah. How you got into the category.
- [138:41]
Rami
Yep. We started Even up about five years ago. This is before legal tech or generative AI was all that interesting. And the premise was to ultimately even up the playing field for personal injury victims in the US so every year there's about 20 million injury victims which where often these cases take a lot longer than they need to to settle or settle for a small fraction of what they're worth. And so our goal is to even up that distribution by helping ultimately their attorneys. So it's a B2B startup. We're helping them across the whole life cycle of their injury cases. Think of it as doing the heavy work for these attorneys for them at what I call superhuman quality. We're helping them settle their cases faster, helping them solve their cases for a larger amount, and removing a lot of the manual work as we go through a lot of these workflows for these attorneys and their staff.
- [139:29]
Jordan
How are you guys already running up against the opposition's or the defense's AI themselves? How is the battle evolving?
- [139:41]
Rami
Yeah, we don't really see too much of that. The crazy thing is this is our fourth round of financing in the last two years and we're on this really rapid growth trajectory where we see about 10,000 cases a week. But when you think about just the TAM here on 20 million cases, we're about 1% penetrated today. So in a way, even though we're, it's a big number, it's still really early days in our space that we haven't seen any of that come through. What we have seen is Ultimately being able to change some of the operations of these law firms for the of benefit better. So one of our firms has scaled revenue by about 70% year on year on a base of over 100 million of revenue without adding headcount. Another one of our firms have used one of our products in mediation in real time, where they turned a $50,000 offer into a multi million dollar offer. So it's kind of crazy to see the impact we've been able to have. But it's still early days.
- [140:36]
Tyler
Is plaintiff screening a different business?
- [140:41]
Rami
So, yes. Not fully the way you can think of this is the way we help is imagine somebody gets injured. They would typically call an injury attorney.
- [140:50]
Tyler
They would sign up, they see a billboard, they see a billboard and the billboard says injured call this number. They call that number and they describe their injury. And then someone needs to qualify that. And it's probably not the most highest paid lawyer. And it feels like those intake forms could be processed by AI, but is that something you're looking at doing? So.
- [141:06]
Rami
Yes. That's really interesting. So we, we don't do the intake call themselves.
- [141:09]
Tyler
Yeah.
- [141:09]
Rami
But as soon as the intake call is done.
- [141:11]
Tyler
Okay.
- [141:11]
Rami
Transcript of those calls is something that we would analyze.
- [141:14]
Tyler
Sure.
- [141:14]
Rami
To say, hey, law firm, you need to prioritize this case.
- [141:17]
Tyler
Yep.
- [141:18]
Rami
Or this might be a case you want to draw.
- [141:19]
Tyler
Yep.
- [141:20]
Rami
We don't do the signing up of the case, but as soon as there's any information, whether it's audio or document based info in these cases, we read that, we scan it, and we ultimately make decisions off of that. With the. Obviously with the, with the attorney hand.
- [141:32]
Tyler
In hand, how are like hallucinations and how are you thinking about like lawyer in the loop? Jordi was talking about this. There was some case about a consulting group that turned over an analysis to a city and had to give them a huge refund because Deloitte AI generated.
- [141:51]
Jordan
Delivering a study that was just inventing like judgments that no judge had actually.
- [142:00]
Tyler
Yeah. It wasn't grounded in like the ground truth of case law. And I imagine that like, I mean, the stakes are pretty high.
- [142:07]
Jordan
The model just had a really.
- [142:09]
Tyler
But also, I mean, you could wind up in a situation where like your firm is like forever tainted by a certain judge and the judge is like, I remember what you did. That was really sloppy. I imagine that your clients and your customers care deeply about that. Like, what are the strategies for avoiding those types of situations? Situations.
- [142:28]
Rami
You both brought up really great points here. And it's a really funny thing because folks are always Like a generative. AI and legal tech are all shoe ins for each other. But folks generally tend to forget accuracy really matters. These cases, you can't be 90% of the way there on a legal letter. That's how you get this part right or that's how you get those Again, some of those headlines that you guys just mentioned, and the way we think about this internally is you need to have done a lot of cases basis because every basis point of accuracy matters. It's another way of thinking about it. We do a number of different legal workflows for these attorneys. But if you think of one letter called the demand letter, that's one of the documents that we prepare for our firms. The quality from this in us being able to repair this two years ago versus today was very different when we started. Keep in mind this is before GPT3 and all the craziness around AI 2 years ago ago we had to have a human in the loop to QA these letters.
- [143:23]
Tyler
Yep.
- [143:25]
Rami
And if you think about the inputs in these cases, and we're at a point now where we're going to be millions of pages of medical records, medical bills, police reports, raw underlying documents, we've had to fine tune these models one to be able to get a much higher level of accuracy than what you typically see off the shelf. And so it's a simple example of this is if you think of something as intuitive as hey, list me all the medical visits that a plaintiff has seen in a case. If you just go into any of your models today that are publicly available, ask it to do it for you, you'll see the accuracy is just not good enough. And so this is where we have to tain our own data service model just to do something as intuitive as be able to pull out a date. When you look at these case files, you get to see timestamp, dates, signature dates, date of birth.
- [144:11]
Tyler
Sure. There's so many different dates, it gets.
- [144:14]
Rami
Pretty complicated with even just one piece of extractions. And that's how we had to build this with time. You have to do a lot of. You gotta have to get your reps in to get the quality of where it needed to be.
- [144:24]
Tyler
How are you growing the business? Are you running billboard ads? If you're an injury attorney, call this number. Or are you doing steak dinners?
- [144:32]
Jordan
You should really do that on the 101. That'd be great.
- [144:36]
Tyler
Or are there like legal tech conferences that you like? What does the top of funnel look like for you?
- [144:43]
Rami
This is the crazy thing as well about our space Is this is such a massive space that folks just don't necessarily know too much about. But when you mention those billboards. Yeah, you folks are saying the same as ingest. But when you see one of these firms has a thousand billboards in California.
- [144:58]
Tyler
Yeah, that's.
- [144:59]
Rami
I don't know any of any SaaS business that has a thousand billboards.
- [145:02]
Tyler
You know what I mean?
- [145:03]
Rami
Like massive marketing machines. And they're based on our Math is around 300,000 of these injury attorneys.
- [145:09]
Tyler
Wow.
- [145:09]
Rami
And about 20 million cases. And they're all over the place. Right. One of our largest customers as an example is in Alabama. You would have never thought it would be in Alabama. We have mass firms in California, massive firms on the east coast. And it really follows population.
- [145:24]
Tyler
Yeah.
- [145:25]
Rami
Wherever there are people, there's going to be injuries because it can mean anything from motor vehicle accident to a dog bite case, even police brutality cases. There's many different ways folks get injured. And so as long as there's people, there's going to be personal injury attorneys. As long as it's personally new attorneys. There will be to some. See, they're all kind of like they want to be found. Because if you think about go to market approach, we have a over 100 person go to market team that's territory based. So this is where we would go local in LA and sf, wherever it might be to be able to get these folks. And that's where you know, a lot of this is outbound as opposed to inbound.
- [145:54]
Tyler
Did you ever think about the Atrium Clearspire model of like bolting an actual law firm onto your software company? You have an LLC bolted to the, to the C corp with like an msa. That was a model that's been tried a few times. I think people are trying it again. But did it ever occur to you to try and try your own cases, Team up with a lawyer, build a firm?
- [146:17]
Rami
Yeah. For us, the way at least I see this space evolving is I see this as very much a winner take most. And even though we're in vertical SaaS here, there's elements of Uber and Lyft that feel true to our space where the first startup that gets 10% of LA will win LA.
- [146:35]
Tyler
Yeah.
- [146:36]
Rami
Because every time you see these cases, the better this whole system gets. And I'll just, I'll elaborate on that a little bit more. And that should hopefully explain why we're doing this in a very B2B fashion. But one thing you folks should know is Even though there's 20 million cases, 99% of them are settled privately. And so there's a real wide gap in performance in terms of how long these cases take to settle and how much they settle for. And generative AI alone can't solve that problem. You need to be able to see a lot of cases for you to be able to do do that. Because most of this data is sitting in the inboxes of a very fragmented industry. And so for us, the goal is how do we expand our go to market as quickly as we can to be able to go from 1% to 10% to 30% market share. And if you want to think about as a key metric, more cases we see, the better the system ultimately gets. And if we're just very focused on, we will never do this, but like competing against our own customers, you're only going to get a number of the cases that are out there.
- [147:29]
Tyler
Yeah, that makes a ton of sense.
- [147:31]
Jordan
Do you think that legal AI is under hyped as a category? Obviously there's a ton of funding flowing in, but there's not, you know, on the code generation side, it's sufficiently hyped. Right. Every researcher at every company you know, is talking about the, the leverage they're getting. Every startup founder is talking about the leverage they're getting. Every CTO is talking about the leverage they're getting public company CEOs. Legal is like, you know, know, just happens, you know, there we certainly have plenty of lawyers in tech, but they're not, you know, they just don't tend to be in a position where they can talk about stuff in the way that regular software engineers can. So it feels like you could be seeing the same type of revolution happening, but it just would be much get much, much less coverage.
- [148:18]
Rami
No, for sure. I think that there's obviously been, you know, when we started even up a couple years ago, you folks could imagine it's like legal tech sucks, AI sucks, personal injury sucks. And like my background is I used to work at Waymo and I used to work as like a tech investor before that. And so it's definitely a lot, there's a lot more attention today in legal tech than there's ever been before. Is it again, is it overblown or not? I think in the end of the day, the thing that makes our space so different when we're selling to these injury attorneys, the thing you folks should know is it's a very fragmented, highly competitive and most importantly commission only the industry. These folks make a percentage of the value of the cases that they settle. So unlike other parts of you know, AI or legal, there's no experimental ARR. These are not like big firms where they can afford to spend a million dollars on something. And because of how competitive it is, like, you better believe this thing can actually help their case operations, otherwise they'll turn. They don't have the luxury of, you know, being able to have big IT budgets, etc. And so in that sense, if you think about our 2,000 customers, it wouldn't be around if they're not seeing real demonstratable ROI in terms of increasing case outcomes or reducing the duration of these cases. And in that sense, I do think it is, call it. It's still early days. And if you think about the mission of the business, I think it's just going to be. It's inevitable in terms of those 20 million cases being able to be settled not again, all over the place, but as fast as they can for the fixed amount. And so in that sense, when we're just 1% penetrated, it's not overhyped, at least in my mind. It's like clear roi.
- [149:51]
Jordan
Well, yeah, and there's that customer alignment where they're incentivized to adopt as much AI as they possibly can because they're not billing hourly, right? They're just getting paid when these cases settled versus a traditional law firm. If something they used to be able to bill 10 hours for suddenly takes 30 minutes. And they had a lot of margin in that 10 hours. There's. There's not the same incentive to adopt as what you're seeing.
- [150:20]
Rami
You nailed it. And the other thing that's also different about this wave, and it's funny because I was having a conversation with one of our customers about this. Some of these folks are still on prem, but they're one of our biggest customers. When you go to a law firm and you're like, hey, you gotta be on the cloud. They're not gonna understand what you really mean. When you're going to these law firms and you're like, here's a legal letter. It was drafted instantly. You can evaluate the quality of this thing relative to your own staff. Because you're a subject matter expert, you know what this legal letter does, and that's what allowed the space to adopt a lot quicker than anything that we've seen before in legal tech. And again, I think you really pinpointed it. But they really genuinely care a lot about being faster, settling quicker, spending less time on review, because anything that they save, they get to keep right as their own margins.
- [151:10]
Jordan
Totally.
- [151:11]
Tyler
One of my first Jobs ever was doing paper filing at a law firm as an intern. I was like a kid.
- [151:18]
Jordan
You were a paper boy then. You're kind of a paper boy now. You're still paper enthusiasts.
- [151:23]
Tyler
I hadn't put it together until I actually just had this conversation and reflected on how crazy that was that. I mean, I guess the cloud barely existed then. But yeah, it was paperback back then. That was wild. I mean, computers were around. But like my job is sort of like. Yeah. In inventorying this stuff. So yeah, law moves slowly. Like the, like a lot of the law firm partners that get like effectively tenure are like, my process works and I like it printed out or I like, I like you know, having the network. The intranet at my office is reliable. I don't know about putting it in Google. And so like people got to figure it out.
- [151:59]
Jordan
When do you, when do you expect Expect the first AI legal company to ipo? Still feels like we're probably a couple years out, but I imagine the revenue for you or some of these other players could get there, you know, get to that $500 million mark or wherever it needs to be to be interesting to Wall Street.
- [152:26]
Rami
Yeah. So this is my just on the paper piece real quick and I'll answer the other question. And it's, it's so funny the way you can kind of think of this. There's been so much innovation and more of the consumer.
- [152:36]
Tyler
Yeah.
- [152:37]
Rami
Like how to get leads like the consumer part of personal injury where like, you know, attorneys are advertising on TikTok, social, etc. But on the operation side, there's been very little innovation. Back to your paper days. They're still doing stuff. Stuff on paper. We've had some of our folks ask to pay our annual SaaS subscription with monthly checks to give you a sense of the ops piece can be in this space. And so this is the first time really in history that these operations of these firms are changing pretty substantially. Right. Because you now can do a lot more with a lot fewer st. Yeah. And if you think about again, like where we're going with this, you're going to see these firms be able to handle a lot more volume. And if you think about the amount of cases that first language attorneys take on today, you'd be surprised at how many cases they're not taking on because they just don't have capacity or they can't make the math work because again, of their model. I think I missed the other question. What was the other question again?
- [153:36]
Jordan
Oh, I just kind of. Yeah. IPO timelines for the category. When do you expect the first companies to get out?
- [153:42]
Tyler
Yeah, it does feel like an entirely different market. There's no clear comps that everyone knows. It's not just like, oh, another SaaS company that we just immediately comp to. So it would be like a new.
- [153:54]
Jordan
Yeah. In the legal industry, law firms can't go public, right?
- [153:58]
Tyler
Yeah, yeah, exactly.
- [153:59]
Jordan
You want exposure.
- [153:59]
Tyler
Financial's got to be different. Yeah. I would love to hear some color on how the public market might receive some of these.
- [154:05]
Rami
Yeah. In terms of like timeline, I'd say again, the 500 million of ARR median ARR business going public being the threshold there. I think we're a couple of years away, but, you know, I mean, we're, we're scaling super fast than doubling year on year on a, on a meaningful base. So I do think we're maybe two, three years. Not us, but for one of these categories as well. Two, three years out before going public in terms of like, how the markets might receive it. It's so interesting, right, that these are such different businesses where you're going to see a lot more TAM than you've seen in traditional software. And so I kind of say this. One of our biggest customers is paying us 4 million a year and they have 100 employees at the firm.
- [154:45]
Tyler
Wow. Think of the 40,000 value per head. Yep, exactly. So you're delivering a ton of value to this.
- [154:54]
Rami
Yeah. Because one of the things that comes up with some of our investors, hey. Is like you're focused on a very niche part of personal. 300,000 attorneys out of over a million. It's maybe 30% of the base in the U.S. but when you're making 10x more revenue per head than traditional SaaS, your tap is actually meaningfully bigger than a lot of these SaaS companies that are out there. And so again, I do think it'll be interesting to see much more rapid growth, much higher base SaaS businesses than you've ever seen before and how the market would be able to evaluate that because it is going to be different than traditional.
- [155:27]
Jordan
Totally. Well, congratulations on the funding milestone. I'm sure we'll see you back here again soon. Maybe one more round before the end of the year. You've already done a couple, you know, but looking forward to the next conversation.
- [155:40]
Tyler
Have a great rest of your day. Thank you so much for hopping on.
- [155:42]
Jordan
Cheers.
- [155:42]
Tyler
We'll talk to you soon. And now it's time for our song.
- [155:48]
Jordan
Find your happy place. Find your happy place.
- [155:51]
Tyler
Book a wander with inspiring views, hotel grade amenities dreamy beds, top tier cleaning and 247 concierge service. It's a vacation home, but better folks go to wander.com When Lisa Su took over as chief executive of chip company Advanced Micro devices amd In 2014, the company's market value was just under $3 billion. Decade later, today it's worth more than $330 billion. 100x There we go. The more than hundredfold increase that reflects how deftly AMD has pivoted its strategy from mainly producing graphics cards for gaming and personal computer processors to more tightly focusing on the data center chips that power Power the Artificial Intelligence revolution. The share price rose 24% on Monday after the company announced a partnership with OpenAI to build 6 gigawatts of power for inference. The deal has given rocket fuel to AMD's share price and the company's ambitions to compete with rival chip designer Nvidia, which is by far the dominant competitor in the AI semiconductor industry at more than 10 times the valuation. Now the AMD share price is kind of up and down and we're now at all time highs, but just barely. March 8th of 2024 the stock was trading at $207. Now it's at 211. And so they've already ridden an AI boom from from $50 a share, $60 a share up to 200, then back down to $80 a share and then back up to 211 shares, $211 a share. So Monday's deal specifies that OpenAI will be issued warrants for $160 million shares of AMD stock at a marginal price of $0.01 per share. Once OpenAI hits certain deployment targets and once AMD's share price rises, the final tranche of share will be granted only if AMD stock hits $600 a share. So it needs to 3x and become a trillion dollar company basically for now, the market capitalization With a market capitalization of $4.5 trillion, Nvidia is nearly 14 times the size of AMD and most analyst estimates peg the market share for graphics processing units, or GPUs as they're known. Thank you Wall street journal. That power AI training and inference at more than 75%. So 75% of the market market is Nvidia and they're trading at 10 times the price of AMD. AMD faces pressure from companies such as Broadcom, which produces application specific custom chips for customers such as OpenAI. And so the OpenAI deal might have shifted the balance in AMD's favor somewhat. How AMD got to this inflection point is a combination of careful strategic planning and being in the right place at the right time. Quote over the last few years, what's been important to us is to understand the workload that would really drive the next generation AI training and inference, sue said in an interview. This deal is a huge expansion of the work that we're doing. For much of the past decade, AMD's arch rival has been intel, the troubled chip designer and manufacturer that recently received major investments from Nvidia and the US Government on the strength of popular designs for the graphics chips used in the PlayStation and Xbox gaming systems and the CPUs or main computer brains. Thank you for explaining what CPU is Wall Street Journal used in consumer PCs. AMD has steadily eaten away at Intel's market share. For years, Intel's been bogged down by a costly effort to turn around its chip fabrication business. AMD, however, spun off its manufacturing business, now known as GlobalFoundries, in 2009, while intel has continued to pour money into its unprofitable foundry segment, even as it fell badly behind behind the more technologically advanced rivals such as tsmc. And so this is where everyone always says intel should have gone fabless. They should have split the companies off. That's what AMD did. They split off. Global Foundries became a fabless semiconductor design shop like Nvidia. The business is similar to Nvidia, and now this seems like they're catching up. I mean, the stock's up 100x.
- [159:51]
Jordan
Somebody asked Lisa Su if they are going to partner with Intel, Buko Capital said says she gave a very awkward and funny response. She says, well, as you know, the supply chain is something that we work on, you know, very, very meticulously. I think we have a very strong supply chain. We're certainly partnered with, you know, TSMC across the supply chain. You know, just to that earlier question, we're absolutely prioritizing building in the United States because I think that's super important. Important. This is the USAI stack. We want to have as much of it in the US as possible. And we continue to really look at how do we ensure that there will be a strong supply chain going forward. When you have it typed out, you can tell she's trying to it's always.
- [160:43]
Tyler
Tough to stuff a mic in someone's face and then transcribe it. Who knows? We've been going back and forth on the AI bubble. I think we should close out with the clearest evidence that we're not in an AI bubble from Trung fan. He says he's not worried about the AI bubble bursting until corporate social accounts start having these exchanges again. And back in 2021, December of 2021, Meta says, this is going to look great in the Metaverse. And the official Pepsi account says, you know it, friends. And Budweiser beer chimes in, says, welcome brand friend, Wag me. And then Pepsi says, thanks, friend. Wag me with the rocket emoji. And this was.
- [161:30]
Jordan
That was a moment.
- [161:31]
Tyler
This is a dark time.
- [161:32]
Jordan
That pretty much was. That was actually two weeks or about a week after the actual topic in the top.
- [161:39]
Tyler
Yeah, Keith had called it.
- [161:40]
Jordan
Keith called it perfectly. Everybody should have posted notifications on for Keith. Probably gonna if he makes a call again. I think people will be listening.
- [161:52]
Tyler
Yes. Anyway, keep monitoring the situation, folks. Stay sharp and we will see you tomorrow.
- [161:59]
Jordan
I cannot wait to give us five.
- [162:00]
Tyler
Stars on Apple, podcast Spotify and tune in Friday for our interview with Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI Sama.
- [162:08]
Jordan
It's time.
- [162:09]
Tyler
Thanks for watching.
- [162:10]
Jordan
See you tomorrow.
- [162:11]
Tyler
Bye.