TBPN Podcast Summary

Episode: The World’s Fastest Growing Defense Company, OpenAI’s Code Red, Google Strikes Back | Diet TBPN
Hosts: John Coogan & Jordi Hays
Date: December 3, 2025

Episode Overview

In this episode, John and Jordi shine a spotlight on Rheinmetall and its enigmatic CEO Armin Papperger, explore the historic and current forces driving the defense company's explosive growth, and then pivot to examine a turbulent period in AI, marked by OpenAI's internal "Code Red" moment and Google's aggressive comeback with Gemini. The discussion blends industry history, inside scoops, real-time reflections, and witty banter as the hosts navigate recent shifts in AI and defense tech.

Rheinmetall’s Explosive Growth: “Why is no one talking about Armin Papperger?”

• [00:00–06:12]
• Rheinmetall’s Rise:
  • Exploded from a $5B to $80B market cap in three years, outpacing classic U.S. defense giants like Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics.
  • Key drivers: deep historical roots (founded in 1889), strategic pivots between wars, and the Ukraine conflict reacting to Russia’s invasion.
• Notable Quote:
  • John: “They make big massive cannons. They make artillery shells. They’ve been very important to the Ukraine war... We gotta ring the gong. We gotta warm up the gong.” ([00:51])
• History in Brief:
  • Began as an ammunition supplier for the German Empire, forced into typewriters and trains post-WWI (Treaty of Versailles).
  • Re-armed before WWII, then twice banned from weapons production—always pivoting to civilian goods.
  • Returned to arms production in the Cold War, becoming the main supplier of tank weaponry.
• Recent Acceleration:
  • Post-2022, triggered by Olaf Scholz’s Zeitenwende speech and the EU’s strategic shift in defense spending.
  • “Revenue's grown 50% since 2022. They're guiding for sales of $58 billion and an operating margin of more than 20% by 2030.” ([04:12])
• Armin Papperger Spotlight:
  • Described as a “white haired Goliath” ([05:16]), recently survived a Russian assassination attempt ([05:29])
  • Opened a factory producing more artillery shells than the entire U.S. defense industry ([05:35])
• Summary:
  Rheinmetall sits at the heart of Europe’s rearmament and is now the "world’s fastest-growing large defense company," its valuation approaching U.S. stalwarts.

OpenAI “Code Red” and the AI Talent/Competition Drama

• [06:12–19:38]

OpenAI's “Code Red”

• The Trigger:
  • Internal all-hands meeting where CEO Sam Altman declared “Code Red.”
  • John, on communication: "Never say Code Red. You gotta say lock in, brothers, lock in... We will grind Google Gemini team into paste and we will crush our enemies." ([06:46])
• Media Pressure:
  • Discussion of beat reporters relentlessly probing for scoops:
    • “The name beat reporter comes from them trying to beat you down. That’s the whole point.” ([08:06])
    • “Are you messing with me?” “Yeah, I’m messing with you.” ([08:14])
• OpenAI’s Run:
  • Praised by Blake Robbins for delivering remarkable progress—shipping new products at breakneck speed.
  • “It feels like we are witnessing a generational run.” ([08:42])

Big Questions & Product Scatter:

• OpenAI’s strategic spread: Are they a research lab, a social network, a commerce engine, and a hardware co all at once?
• Sam Altman's reasoning: “We're automating science... and we're making, like, consumer electronics,” compared to Google’s 25-year edge ([09:11])

Market and Model Uncertainty

• OpenAI’s large spending commitments ($1.4 trillion discussed).
• Structural challenges: Is it possible (or even wise) to “automate science” at scale?
• Funding challenges: Discussion of a $270 billion gap, with the hosts doubting OpenAI will “blow up the economy” as once feared ([18:11])

Google Strikes Back: The Gemini Effect

• [19:38–26:17]

The “Empire Strikes Back” Analogy

• Ben Thompson’s analysis:
  • Compares the narrative arc to Star Wars’ hero's journey; AI’s “heroes” are OpenAI and Nvidia, who now face the juggernaut of Google.
  • “The Google Empire is very much striking back. The first Google blow was Gemini 3.” ([19:39])
• Benchmark Supremacy:
  • Gemini 3 reportedly surpasses GPT-4 in technical tests, though real-world usage lags.
  • Google's advantage is its “sheer size and the vast amount of compute that went into creating it.”
• Aggregation Theory:
  • Demand aggregation (number of unique users) is a key moat, and OpenAI’s ChatGPT enjoys enormous user loyalty, especially on mobile.
  • “For a lot of people, if they have an app that’s installed and they've been using it for a year, they're never changing.” ([22:09])
• Switching Costs & Moats:
  • Gemini's mobile app has technical frustrations—potentially protecting OpenAI’s moat despite Google’s infrastructure and R&D advantage ([22:17])
• Will Ads Come?
  • Hosts speculate on the inevitability of ads: “I really wonder who's going to take the leap first... Feels like Google should do it.” ([25:20])

Notable Quotes

• “The more unique buyers of your product you have, the stronger your moat.” ([23:14])
• On Google: “It's very easy to imagine an outcome where Google's inputs simply matter more than anything else.” ([24:38])

Apple, AI Talent Wars, and Integration

• [26:17–27:28]
• Apple hires Amar Subramania (Microsoft/Google/AI veteran) to lead AI under Craig Federighi after John Giandrea’s departure ([26:06])
• Apple to integrate Gemini into Siri—could threaten ChatGPT’s stronghold on iOS.
  • “I think I’m going to be using that a lot. Unless they really botch it...” ([27:28])

Health Tech Side Note: The LED Crisis

• [28:02–29:51]
• Clip from Huberman Lab discussing the potential health risks of widespread LED lighting:
  • Dr. Jeffrey: “This is an issue on the same level as asbestos. This is a public health issue...LED has got a big blue spike in it...the mitochondria are not breathing very well.” ([28:24])
• The hosts joke about converting their studio to “candlelight” for health purposes.
  • “We just go until the hearth [burns out].” ([29:47])

Notable Moments & Quotes

| Timestamp | Quote & Context | |-----------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:51 | "We gotta ring the gong. We gotta warm up the gong." — Celebrating Rheinmetall’s explosive growth| | 05:16 | “He’s been called a white haired Goliath. I love that.” — On Papperger | | 06:46 | "Never say Code Red. You gotta say lock in, brothers, lock in." — On leadership communication | | 08:42 | "It feels like we are witnessing a generational run." — Blake Robbins on OpenAI | | 13:54 | "Oh, architects are cooked. AI is coming for you. Prepare accordingly." — On AI in architecture | | 19:39 | “The Google Empire is very much striking back.” — Framing Google’s Gemini launch | | 22:09 | “If they have an app… they’re never changing.” — On stickiness and moats | | 28:24 | "This is an issue on the same level as asbestos... public health issue." — Dr. Jeffrey, Huberman | | 29:47 | "We just go until the hearth [burns out]." — Joke about ending the show with candlelight |

Major Discussion Timestamps

• 00:00–06:12: Rheinmetall’s history, growth, CEO, and response to the Ukraine conflict
• 06:12–19:38: The OpenAI “Code Red,” product criticism, praise, and doubts about the business model and financials
• 19:38–26:17: Google strikes back with Gemini, moats, aggregation theory, and platform stickiness
• 26:17–27:28: AI talent swaps and the Apple-Gemini integration
• 28:02–29:51: LED public health risk (Huberman Lab clip) and banter

Tone and Style

The hosts blend sharp analysis with light, self-aware humor, rapid-fire dialogue, cultural references, and a penchant for “bit” explanations (e.g., the “gong,” the Star Wars analogy, “Baja Blast Gemini”). The conversation is informal yet deeply informed, appealing to tech-savvy listeners interested in big-picture industry shifts as well as the human drama behind technology’s front lines.

TL;DR

This episode spotlights Rheinmetall’s meteoric rise under CEO Armin Papperger, dissects OpenAI’s internal drama and existential product challenges, chronicles Google’s aggressive AI comeback with Gemini, surveys tech industry talent churn (with Apple’s big new AI hire), and finishes on a health-tech tangent about the perils of LED lighting. The hosts blend cultural commentary, industry scoops, and irreverent wit throughout.