Another DeepSeek Moment On The Horizon?

Summary

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Tech Brew Ride Home – April 23, 2026

Episode Title: Another DeepSeek Moment On The Horizon?
Host: Brian McCullough
Podcast: Morning Brew’s Tech Brew Ride Home

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Episode Overview

This episode delves into the latest tech news and trends, touching on the shifting landscape in AI tools for developers (with a possible new era of open-source disruption), fresh moves at Microsoft (including voluntary retirement), Anthropic’s astonishing $1 trillion secondary market valuation, political insider trading penalties on Kalshee, and key disclosures from SpaceX’s S1 ahead of its blockbuster IPO. The episode wraps with a look at Spotify’s revealing 20th anniversary streaming stats.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. SpaceX, Cursor, and the AI Coding Wars

[02:05–05:51]

• SpaceX–Cursor Deal:

  • SpaceX isn’t immediately acquiring Cursor as that could delay its IPO targeting a $2T valuation. There's a $10B breakup fee if the deal falls through ([02:05]).
  • Cursor halted its planned $2B funding round, as X.ai now fills their compute needs.

• Microsoft’s Missed Move:

  • Microsoft considered acquiring Cursor recently, but didn’t pursue a formal offer ([02:31]).
  • Despite success with GitHub Copilot, Cursor is now leading the coding AI market, along with Anthropic and OpenAI ([02:58]).
  • Microsoft’s role remains mostly as investor and cloud provider.

• Anthropic & OpenAI Competition:

  • GitHub Copilot boasts 4.7M paying subscribers (+75%).
  • OpenAI’s Codex: 4M active users, gaining ground ([03:24]).
  • Anthropic’s Claude Code has spiked revenue, helping the company reach $30B annualized revenue ([03:50]).

• AI Model Partnerships:

  • XAI has been in talks with both Mistral and Cursor for a possible three-way partnership ([03:59]).

• Quote:

  • "This whole thing sort of was a domino effect..." ([04:10])
  • “Anthropic’s revenue exploded because of Claude code. Cursor exploded to a $60 billion valuation because of coding. OpenAI is catching up rapidly with Codex. So one of the motivations for Elon is to have one of these things that is making the most money in AI in his own tool belt." ([04:14] - Brian)

2. Open-Weight Models: The Next DeepSeek Moment?

[04:38–05:51]

• Local AI Coding Models:

  • There’s a dream among developers to run open-weight models locally, avoiding high token costs of major LLM/coding APIs.
  • Discussion of recent model releases (e.g., Alibaba’s Qwen 3.627-B) suggests that small, high-quality local coding models are now in reach for individual developers ([05:05]).

• Potential Disruption:

  • If open models get “good enough,” it could majorly undercut revenue for heavyweights like Anthropic, OpenAI, Cursor, etc.

• Quote:

  • “What if we get another Deepseek moment where somebody suddenly releases an open-weight coding model that obviates the need to pay thousands a month to…Anthropic or whomever because you can run it on your laptop?” ([05:40] – Brian)

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3. Microsoft’s First-Ever Voluntary Retirement Program and Rewards Overhaul

[06:02–07:37]

• Retirement Program:

  • Microsoft launches a voluntary retirement program for U.S. employees whose age + years of service ≥ 70, described as for those “considering their next chapter” ([06:15]).

• Rewards & Stock Changes:

  • Company is simplifying pay levels from 9 to 5, not returning to stack ranking ([07:06]).
  • Stock awards will be more flexible and separate from bonuses to better recognize high performers and help retain talent amidst executive departures.

• Quote:

  • "We're also changing how stock is awarded…so managers have more flexibility to meaningfully recognize high performance…” ([07:06] – quoting Amy Coleman, Microsoft HR Chief)

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4. Kalshee Cracks Down: Political Insider Trading on Prediction Markets

[07:38–10:33]

• Enforcement Actions:

  • Three congressional candidates suspended five years and fined for betting on their own elections; new safeguards flagged these actions ([07:48]).
  • Details: Mark Morin (Virginia), Matt Klein (Minnesota), Ezekiel Enriquez (Texas).

• Reactions:

  • Morin acted “knowing this would happen,” as a protest, and launched into a tirade against Kalshee ([09:15]).
  • Klein admitted curiosity and called for clearer rules ([10:26]).

• Quote:

  • “I traded $100 on myself knowing this would happen…as senator I will go after Kalshee and impose significant penalties…” ([09:15] – Mark Morin)
  • “My experience, like many other Minnesotans, points to the need for clearer rules and regulations for these types of markets.” ([10:30] – Matt Klein)

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5. Anthropic Overtakes OpenAI in Private Valuations

[12:00–13:33]

• Anthropic's Rocketing Valuation:

  • Anthropic hits $1 trillion on secondary markets (Forge Global), surpassing OpenAI’s $880B ([12:02]).
  • Investors snapping up secondary shares as supply dwindles, inflating valuation.

• Market Discrepancy:

  • Despite OpenAI being valued higher in recent rounds, its shares are being discounted relative to Anthropic.

• Quote:

  • “Desperate buyers are in a race to secure a dwindling supply of secondary shares in Anthropic, driving the AI company’s valuation on some sites to $1 trillion—a price that would have seemed unthinkable even a few weeks ago.” ([12:13] – quoting Business Insider)

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6. AI Workforce Inequality: New Poll Findings

[13:34–15:23]

• Adoption Gaps:

  • Higher earning, more experienced workers are adopting AI much faster than lower wage peers ([13:43]).
  • 60% of top earners use AI daily, compared to only 16% of lower earners ([13:54]).
  • Notable gender divide—men use AI more than women across most sectors.

• Expert Commentary:

  • MIT’s Daron Acemoglu: “The rhetoric out there is that the tools are going to be democratizing, but the reality is that you require a certain degree of education, abstract and quantitative skills…in order to be using the models.” ([14:25])
  • “AI is going to increase inequality between labor and capital, that is almost for sure. I would say it is setting us up for a S show.” ([14:45] – Acemoglu)

• Implications:

  • The tech is set to drive earnings inequality by boosting productivity mainly at the top ([15:16]).

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7. SpaceX’s IPO: Building Its Own AI Chips

[15:33–17:37]

• Key S1 Filings:

  • SpaceX plans to manufacture its own GPUs as part of its $1.75T IPO push ([15:36]), in partnership with its XAI unit and Tesla through the “Tarafab” project in Austin ([16:13]).
  • The goal: developing chips for cars, robots, space-based data centers.
  • SpaceX sees a $28.5T addressable market, $26.5T of that from AI sector, especially business AI ([17:10]).

• Quote:

  • “Elon really does think of everything he’s doing now as AI, cars and rockets are just along for the ride.” ([17:27] – Brian)

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8. Spotify’s 20th Anniversary: Most-Streamed Lists Revealed

[17:40–18:40]

• Streaming Era Leaders:
  • No surprises: Taylor Swift, Bad Bunny, Drake, The Weeknd, and Ed Sheeran dominate overall streaming ([17:53]).
  • Top albums: Bad Bunny’s Un Verano Sin Ti (2022) #1, The Weeknd’s Starboy & After Hours, Sheeran’s deluxe, Olivia Rodrigo’s Sour ([18:15]).
  • Top song: The Weeknd’s “Blinding Lights,” followed by Sheeran’s “Shape of You” ([18:34]).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On developer dreams for local AI models:

  “What if the open-weight models get so good at coding and so small in size that you could run them locally and be confident that you’re doing good work?”
  — Brian McCullough [05:00]

• On AI’s impact on workplace inequality:

  “AI is going to increase inequality between labor and capital, that is almost for sure. I would say it is setting us up for a S show.”
  — Daron Acemoglu, MIT Economist [14:45]

• On Elon Musk’s ambitions:

  “Elon really does think of everything he’s doing now as AI, cars and rockets are just along for the ride.”
  — Brian McCullough [17:27]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

| Segment | Start | |--------------------------------------|----------| | SpaceX–Cursor Deal | 02:05 | | Microsoft’s Position in Coding AI | 02:31 | | AI "Open Weights" Disruption | 04:38 | | Microsoft’s Retirement Program | 06:02 | | Kalshee Political Insider Trading | 07:38 | | Anthropic’s $1T Valuation | 12:00 | | AI Workforce Inequality Poll | 13:34 | | SpaceX S1: Making Its Own Chips | 15:33 | | Spotify’s 20th Anniversary Stats | 17:40 |

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Final Thoughts

This episode offers a rapid-fire, insightful roundup of how the AI field’s economics and technology are shifting, with possible new waves of open-source disruption ahead and a reminder that adoption and benefits are still sharply unequal in the workforce. The tech giants are doubling down, whether with unprecedented retirement programs or billion-dollar chip bets. And, for a cultural palate-cleanser, Spotify’s streaming data reminds us some things—like pop stars—remain constant amidst upheaval.

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Transcript

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Welcome to the tech We Write home for Thursday, April 23rd, 2026. I'm Brian McCullough. Today, Microsoft considered buying Cursor but didn't pull the trigger before SpaceX's deal Microsoft launches its first ever voluntary retirement program. Anthropic's secondary market valuation hits $1 trillion on Forge Global, and SpaceX's S1 reveals plans to manufacture its own GPUs.

[C]

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Learn more at D o p e l.com that's.o p p e l.com A few follow ups to that whole SpaceX kind of sorta acquiring cursor story. First, sources say SpaceX isn't acquiring cursor

[C]

immediately because the deal could delay its forthcoming IPO. Quoting Bloomberg, a major transaction would require

[B]

SpaceX to update its filings and financial details, potentially delaying the IPO, which is

[C]

targeting a $2 trillion valuation.

[B]

The $10 billion is a breakup fee

[C]

if the deal doesn't go through, according

[B]

to people with knowledge of the deal.

[C]

SpaceX and Xai didn't immediately respond to a request.

[B]

Cursor had been in talks with investors to raise about $2 billion in a

[C]

funding round with a valuation of more than $50 billion. Not including the investment Bloomberg reported last week. The company is no longer proceeding with that round because the capital was set to fund Cursor's computing needs, which are now being handled by Xai, according to a person familiar with the matter. End quote CNBC says that Microsoft considered buying Cursor in recent weeks but didn't make an offer. Microsoft has been working to boost GitHub Copilot's popularity.

[B]

Quote While MIC has gained traction among developers with GitHub Copilot, the AI coding market is currently being dominated by Cursor along with anthropic and OpenAI. Microsoft's primary role in the space has been as an investor and cloud provider,

[C]

pumping billions of dollars into anthropic and OpenAI, which have committed to hefty spending on Microsoft Azure.

[B]

Microsoft, meanwhile, has seen its stock price drop 10% this year, underperforming the broader market and its hyperscaler peers.

[C]

CEO Satya Nadella told analysts in January that GitHub Copilot had 4.7 million paying subscribers, up 75% from a earlier OpenAI is pushing its own Codex programming app. CEO Sam Altman said on X on Tuesday that codex has reached 4 million active users less than two weeks after crossing the 3 million mark. Anthropic's Claude Code Service has gained popularity this year, helping anthropic to reach $30 billion in annualized revenue this month.

[B]

End quote and Business Insider says that XAI held talks in recent weeks with Mistral and Cursor about a potential three way partnership.

[C]

Mistral co founder Devendra Chaplot joined xai,

[B]

but I want to flag something about

[C]

all of this so that you can keep this context in your mind.

[B]

This whole thing sort of was a domino effect kind of scenario.

[C]

Anthropic's revenue exploded because of Claude code. Cursor exploded to a $60 billion valuation because of coding. OpenAI is catching up rapidly with Codex. So one of the motivations for Elon is to have one of these things

[B]

that is making the most money in

[C]

AI in his own tool belt. But this is where open source open weights might throw a curveball into the mix.

[B]

The dream for a lot of developers right now is to be running open

[C]

weights models locally so you don't have

[B]

to pay the heavy token tax to

[C]

the big LLMs and coding companies. I mean, that's also partially what the whole open claw mania and buying Mac

[B]

Minis mania has been about as well. So what if the open weight models

[C]

get so good at coding and so

[B]

small in size that you could run

[C]

them locally and be confident that you're doing good work.

[B]

People are still paying the big boys

[C]

because they're the best. They feel confident the quality is the best. But what if there are diminishing returns there? What if open weights get good enough? And for example, Alibaba just launched a Quinn 3.627-B model, an open weight dense model with a mere 27 billion parameters, saying it surpasses Quinn 3.5397-B, a 397 billion parameter model on major coding benchmarks. So this new model, like I could run that easily on my Mac studio.

[B]

I'm asking could we get another deep seek moment where somebody suddenly releases an open weight coding model that obviates the

[C]

need to pay thousands a month to anthropic or whomever because you can run

[B]

it on your laptop?

[C]

What would that do to the revenue picture of all these players if that were to happen tomorrow.

[B]

Microsoft has announced the first voluntary retirement program in its 50 year history for

[C]

US staffers whose combined years of service added to their age totals 70 plus, quoting the Verge.

[B]

Many of these employees have spent years,

[C]

and in some cases decades, shaping Microsoft into what it is today, said Microsoft's HR chief Amy Coleman in a memo seen by the Verge.

[B]

For those who may be considering their next chapter, we're offering a one time voluntary retirement program.

[C]

Microsoft says it applies to only a small percentage of our U.S. employees.

[B]

U.S. employees whose combined years of service added to their age total 70 or more will be eligible for voluntary retirement,

[C]

said Coleman, saying this will include generous company support. It's not clear if this is a precursor to more layoffs at Microsoft, but

[B]

it certainly looks like a method to

[C]

avoid a bigger round of layoffs ahead of Microsoft's new financial year in July.

[B]

Microsoft is also changing how it rewards employees with performance related bonuses and stock.

[C]

A more simplified reward program reduces pay points from nine to five levels and

[B]

there's no curve involved.

[C]

So Microsoft isn't returning to the unpopular stack ranking system. We're also changing how stock is awarded, moving away from it being directly tied to bonus so managers have more flexibility to meaningfully recognize high performance, says Coleman. That could help retain some of the talent that Microsoft has been losing through executive departures recently, allowing managers to offer an additional stock package without it having to be tied to the bonus schedule, end quote.

[B]

Kalshee has suspended and fined congressional candidates Mark Morin of Virginia, Matt Klein of Minnesota and Ezekiel Enriquez of Texas for

[C]

what they are calling political insider trading. Quoting cnbc, Kalshee said in a statement that all three candidates who each were suspended for five years, quote, were flagged

[B]

because of our newly released safeguards to

[C]

block political candidates from trading on their own elections.

[B]

The sanctioned candidates were Mark Mor, who

[C]

had been a candidate in Virginia's Democratic primary for the Senate before deciding to seek the seat as an independent Minnesota

[B]

State Senator Matt Klein, who is running

[C]

in the Democratic primary for that state's 2nd congressional district and Ezekiel Enriquez of

[B]

Texas, who ran in the Republican primary

[C]

for the state's 21st congressional district.

[B]

Kalshee identified the candidates by name in

[C]

separate notices of disciplinary action. Kalshee said Morin traded in two markets

[B]

related to his campaign.

[C]

The first was a market on individuals who had run for public office in 2026. Kelsh this person placed a trade on himself in this market.

[B]

Then once the trader announced himself as a candidate for the Democratic primary election

[C]

for Virginia U.S. senate, he again traded on his own candidacy, the company said.

[B]

Morin, when contacted by Kalshee, initially acknowledged

[C]

being a candidate and violating the rules,

[B]

but later stopped communicating with the company's team, according to Kalshee. Morin repeatedly refused to resolve this matter

[C]

via settlement, the company said. Kalshee fined Morin $6,229.30 in addition to suspending him, the company said. Morin, in a statement on said, I traded $100 on myself knowing this would happen, also knowing that I wouldn't be vying for the Democratic nomination and the

[B]

attention it would create to highlight how

[C]

this company is destroying young men. As senator I will go after Kalshee and impose significant penalties on them. 25% a vice tax to pay down our national debt.

[B]

Also ironic timing given that on DC

[C]

Subways Kalshee has to run ads that they are a fair and legal betting

[B]

market because they know heat is on them and the administration already chose their winner with Polymarket.

[C]

They know their EFF trying to do the same thing the tobacco companies did, morin wrote.

[B]

Klein and Enriquez both cooperated with Kalshi's

[C]

probes, according to the company.

[B]

Klein, who had quote, traded a small amount on the outcome of his own election, also acknowledged that the trading activity

[C]

violated Kalshi exchange rules, agreed to pay a fine of $539.85 and to his suspension, the company said. Klein, in a statement on X, said

[B]

that last October he heard from friends that there was a prediction market enabling

[C]

wagers on his primary race. I had never wagered on a predictions

[B]

market previously, klein said. I was curious about how it worked.

[C]

I set up an account and bet

[B]

$50 of my own funds that I would win the primary.

[C]

I was informed in March of 2026 that this was a violation of platform rules. In compliance with their request, I paid

[B]

a penalty and agreed to be suspended. That was the only wager I have

[C]

ever made on a predictions market. This was a mistake and I apologize, klein wrote.

[B]

He added, my experience, like many other

[C]

Minnesotans, points to the need for clearer rules and regulations for these types of markets. End Quote.

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[B]

Anthropic's valuation has hit $1 trillion on

[C]

Forge Global, a leading private marketplace exchange,

[B]

surpassing OpenAI's valuation on that platform of

[C]

$880 billion, quoting Business Insider.

[B]

Desperate buyers are in a race to secure a dwindling supply of secondary shares in anthropic, driving the AI company's valuation on some sites to $1 trillion, a

[C]

price that would have seemed unthinkable even a few weeks ago.

[B]

Meanwhile, traders Business Insider spoke with are seeing slumping demand for OpenAI, which is now trading at a discount to Anthropic,

[C]

despite OpenAI being valued at $852 billion, more than twice Anthropic's valuation in their most recent funding rounds.

[B]

Anthropic's valuation now hovers at around?

[C]

1 trillion on Forge Global, a leading private marketplace exc, its CEO Kelly Rodriguez told Business Insider. OpenAI's valuation on the platform is $880

[B]

billion, a slight uptick from its March funding round since Anthropic and OpenAI are not yet public companies, the vast majority of investors are forced to buy via secondary markets with existing stock in the

[C]

companies sold by current or former employees or early investors.

[B]

Neither company responded to a request for comment.

[C]

One Anthropic shareholder recently offered to unload

[B]

shares at a $1.15 trillion valuation, according

[C]

to Ken Sawyer, a co founder and managing partner at Saints Capital, a venture secondary firm.

[B]

A very well known growth fund offered

[C]

to buy Anthropic shares at a $1.05 trillion valuation. Jesse Lemongruber, founder of Open Home, posted on X this week End quote.

[B]

A poll of 4,000 workers in the US and the UK finds that the highest earning and most experienced workers are adopting AI in their jobs far faster

[C]

than quoting the FT An FT poll of 4,000 workers in the US and

[B]

UK shows adoption is heavily skewed towards

[C]

the best paid workers.

[B]

More than 60% use AI daily, compared

[C]

with just 16% of the lower earners. The data, the first release from a

[B]

new AI workforce tracker produced by the FT and research company Focal Data, also

[C]

points to a persistent gender divide, with

[B]

men significantly more likely than women to

[C]

use AI tools across sectors ranging from technology to education and retail.

[B]

The monthly survey covers how workers are

[C]

using AI, changes in productivity, barriers to

[B]

adoption and impacts on the labor market.

[C]

It offers a snapshot of how the

[B]

technology is rippling across the US and

[C]

UK and who stands to benefit most.

[B]

The rhetoric out there is that the tools are going to be democratizing, but the reality is that you require a

[C]

certain degree of education abstract and quantitative

[B]

skills, familiarity with computers and coding in order to be using the models, said

[C]

Darren Aselemgu, the Nobel Laureate in Economics and professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

[B]

AI is going to increase inequality between

[C]

labor and capital, that is almost for sure. I would say it is setting us up for a S show, end quote.

[B]

The poll showed that top knowledge workers

[C]

were the heaviest users of AI across

[B]

white collar jobs, but that the main differences in usage was between particular occupations

[C]

rather than within them.

[B]

Lawyers, accountants and software developers are using these tools at similar rates, whether junior or senior, but are using them much more than people in lower paid occupations

[C]

in the same industry.

[B]

The strong relationship between pay, education and AI use suggests the technology may increase earnings inequality and boosting the productivity of

[C]

workers at the top but not at the bottom. End quote.

[B]

Some details trickling out from SpaceX's S1

[C]

filing, for example, quoting Reuters SpaceX may

[B]

be tackling one of the biggest challenges in the chip business manufacturing the keys to powering artificial intelligence called graphics processing

[C]

units or GPU, ahead of SpaceX's $1.75

[B]

trillion IPO expected this summer.

[C]

The company has warned prospective investors of

[B]

its big spending plans to develop AI and other technologies. It lists manufacturing our own GPUs among the substantial capital expenditures it is undertaking,

[C]

according to Excerpts of its S1 registration reviewed by Reuters.

[B]

Companies filed this document to the U.S.

[C]

securities and Exchange Commission to disclose their risks and finances before going public.

[B]

The ambition follows work by SpaceX, its XAI unit and Tesla to jointly develop

[C]

the Taraf, an advanced AI chip manufacturing complex that CEO Elon Musk is planning in Austin, Texas.

[B]

Though Musk has said the project would target chips for cars, humanoid robots and

[C]

space based data centers, many details, including the types of AI chips such as GPUs it would produce, have been unknown. There are a range of approaches for chips that power AI. For example, Nvidia largely makes GPUs, which are general purpose and good at performing a wide array of data crunching tasks. Alphabet's Google takes another approach with its

[B]

Tensor processing units, or TPUs, which are tuned to perform specific functions key to

[C]

building AI models and running chatbots such as Anthropic's Claude.

[B]

It was unclear when SpaceX plans to

[C]

manufacture its own chip and which companies, the Terrafab developers or their partner intel, would handle the fabrication technologies inside the plant. End quote. And one more nugget from the S1

[B]

before we leave this SpaceX says its total addressable market could be as much

[C]

as $28.5 trillion, with 26.5 trillion of that from the AI sector, most of from AI for businesses. So yeah, Elon really does think of

[B]

everything he's doing now as AI, cars

[C]

and rockets are just along for the ride.

[B]

Finally today, Spotify is celebrating its 20th anniversary with a first ever list of its 20 most streamed artists, albums, songs, podcasts and audiobooks.

[C]

Quoting Billboard, some of the artists at

[B]

the top of the music categories won't surprise anyone.

[C]

You would expect Taylor Swift, Bad Bunny, Drake, the Weeknd and Ed Sheeran to

[B]

feature prominently given their domination during the streaming era. There are of course plenty of veteran acts in the mix on the most streamed of all time as well. Rihanna, Eminem, Coldplay, Kanye West. But the real interesting mix is on the top 20 most streamed albums tally. That's where Benito's smash 2022 album Un

[C]

Verano Sinti, with a record 22 billion total streams to date, is number one

[B]

by the Weeknd's 2016 album Starboy, Ed

[C]

Sheeran's deluxe Olivia Rodrigo's Sour and another

[B]

one by the Weeknd.

[C]

After Hours, Abel is tops on the

[B]

most streamed songs tally, as well as

[C]

Blinding Lights coming in at number one, followed by Sheeran's Shape of youf, the

[B]

Neighborhood's Sweater Weather, the Weeknd and Daft

[C]

Punk, Starboy and Harry Styles As It Was, end quote. Click through if you want to read the full list. Nothing more for you today. Talk to you tomorrow.

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