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CES Day 1
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Coming to you live from Las Vegas with the first of the CES madness. More signs that insider betting on prediction markets is going to become something we’re going to have to live with. Is Reddit bigger than TikTok now, at least by one measure? And how Reels became bigger than YouTube by maybe the most important measure.
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Welcome to the Tech Brew Ride home for Monday, January 5th, 2026. I'm Brian McCullough today coming to you live from Las Vegas with the first of the CES madness. More signs that insider betting on prediction markets is going to become something we're going to have to live with. Is Reddit bigger than TikTok now? At least by one measure, and how reels became bigger than YouTube by maybe the most important measure. Here's what you missed today. In the world of tech, You may have noticed that your customers love webinar and video content. But if you've ever put together a webinar or a video, then you know that it can eat up a lot of your time and budget. But now, thankfully, there's a singular tool that can streamline your team's video and webinar workflows. Wistia Wistia can scale your content output with AI powered tools that help you create, edit and repurpose videos and webinars fast. And speaking of webinars, you can host engaging, easy to set up webinars in Wistia 2, complete with built in analytics. With Wistia, you don't have to pay for multiple video tools, hop between platforms or constantly re upload files, create, edit, collaborate and publish all in one place. Head to wistia.combrew to learn more. That's wistia.com brew with Wistia you can expect less work and more plays. Buckle up chuckleheads, because the CES headlines are going to be coming fast and furious for the next few days. This is not exactly a headline from ces, but when Samsung Co CEO TM Roh overnight announced that Samsung has rolled out Gemini AI features to around 400 million mobile devices so far and aims to hit 800 million devices in 2026, Samsung's stock jumped more than 5%. Quoting Reuters Galaxy AI features are largely powered by Samsung's Gemini and the thinking seems to be among investors that this gives Samsung an edge over rivals such as Apple in the global race for AI adoption. We will apply AI to all products, all functions and all services as quickly as possible, T.M. rowe told Reuters in his first interview since becoming Samsung Electronics co CEO in November. The plan by the world's largest backer of Google's Android mobile platform is set to give a major boost to its developer Google, which is locked in a race with OpenAI and others to attract more consumer users to their AI model. Samsung seeks to reclaim its lost crown from Apple in the smartphone market and fend off competition from Chinese rivals not only in mobile telephones but televisions and home appliances, all overseen by ro. It will offer integrated AI services across consumer products to widen its lead over Apple and such features, though the latter was set to be the top smartphone maker last year, according to market researcher Counterpoint. ROH expects the adoption of AI to accelerate as Samsung's surveys on awareness of its Galaxy AI brand. It jumped to a level of 80% from about 30% in just one year. Even though the AI technology might seem a bit doubtful right now, within six months to a year these technologies will become more widespread, rose said. End quote. And when they say they're going to put AI into all of their products, they mean it. At ces, Samsung announced updates to its TV lineup to add new AI features, including a sound controller feature to independently adjust the volume of dialogue, music or sound effects on your tv. And and I know this always sounds like a joke, but look, stuff like this will be a dime a dozen here this week. Samsung also upgraded its Family Hub refrigerators with AI features such as voice control to open and close the door and Gemini powered AI Vision to track inventory. Quoting the Verge, Samsung's latest update to its Family Hub Smart fridge line adds a feature I've always wanted voice activated door opening and closing. Using the device's built in Bixby voice control, you will soon be able to say shut the fridge door or open the door and your machine will obey. According to a press release From Samsung at CES 2026 this week, the voice commands will open the door fully, not just a smidge over 90 degrees. You can also tap the door with the palm or back of your hand to activate the movement. This could be super helpful when cooking, say when your hands are dirty and you want to get the milk out. It's also a major accessibility upgrade. Along with voice control for the door, the Family Hub line is also getting a Gemini injection. Its built in AI vision powers the fridge's ability to recognize you're putting into and taking out of your fridge. Now using Google's LLM this enables it to instantly identify unlimited fresh and processed food items, according to Samsung, and is designed to help with meal planning and cut down on food waste. And Amazon this morning said it has launched Alexa into early access for all users via a new web interface@alexa.com and now lets users upload documents, emails and images. Quoting the Verge, Alexa was already available on all new Echo devices and recently rolled out as an update to older Echoes as well, but certain tasks are just easier to do with a keyboard and mouse than they are with your voice. Now you can get access to Alexa while sitting at your laptop to update your to do list or make reservations at that new Puerto Rican spot that recently opened up. One of the big advantages is the ability to upload documents, emails and even images to Alexa through the website and have it pull out important information. Recipes can become shopping lists, vet bills, a record of rabies, vaccinations and kids Little League schedules can automatically be added to your calendar. Of course, Amazon is talking up its broader integrations as well, like generating meal plans and automatically filling an Amazon Fresh or Whole Foods cart with your groceries, even abiding your dietary restrictions. It can also access your smart home devices like lights, locks and doorbell cameras right next to your chat with Alexa. While in theory Google Gemini should have similar smart home features, I can tell you from experience that they're not particularly reliable. Also, that might pair well with an AI Smart fridge, no? Well, maybe this is the first entry in the could be big in 2026 file. I can't see how this is going to slow down anytime soon. A brand spanking new polymarket account over the weekend bet $30,000 on Venezuela President Maduro capture just hours before President Trump made the announcement of said capture, renewing questions on insider information in prediction markets. Quoting the Verge Shortly before the US Military launched an attack on Venezuela and captured President Nicolas Maduro, an account on Polymarket made some very suspiciously timed investments. The prediction market had been running bets on whether or when or if Maduro would be removed from power, with prices out by January 31, 2026, as low as 7 cents late Friday even. But within 24 hours of the military action, a newly created account invested tens of thousands of dollars, racking up several hundred thousand in profits. The account was created less than a week ago and invested over $30,000 the day before the assault, turning a profit of over $408,000. The activity was flagged on social media, with people speculating that the person placing the bet was acting on inside information and perhaps even worked at the Pentagon, Joe Pompliano, an investor and podcaster, quickly pointed out on X that insider trading is not only allowed on predict, it's encouraged, end quote. And quoting the information, the account created in December 2025 spent a total of $32,537 over the past four days, betting that Maduro would be out by January 31. As President Donald Trump confirmed the US had captured Maduro early Saturday morning, the account made profits of $404,222 or a 1,242% return. It's unclear who's behind the account or if the person has other accounts or positions. The account is also currently that the US Will invade Venezuela and Trump will invoke war powers against Venezuela by the end of the month. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which regulates prediction markets in the US Generally forbids contracts related to events such as a war, terrorism or assassination which are contrary to the public interest. Polymarket's global platform, where the account made its bets, is not open to US users and therefore not subject to US Regulations. Polymarket has launched a separate platform for US users. Kalshi also offers bets on when Maduro would be leaving office, though there's currently no bet on potential US Invasion of Venezuela, end quote. It's the holidays, which means you're probably trying to figure out what to get the people in your life who live in back to back meetings. This isn't some sci fi concept. It's Plaud P L A U D. It snaps onto the back of your phone and records phone calls, meetings and conversations. This isn't just note taking though. It can summarize, organize meetings, generate to do lists, draft emails, extract insights, analyze perspectives and help you make better decisions, all with full contextual awareness across your past conversations and meetings. Black Friday is coming and Plod is giving tech we write home listeners 20% off. Search Plaud on Google or Amazon and get 20% off the FT says that SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic could all IPO this year. Those three deals alone would exceed the total proceeds from roughly 200 US IPOs that took place in 2025. I can't recall a crop like this. Three private companies which would be amongst the largest public market caps in the world, said Peter Habert, co founder of venture firm Lux Capital. The likelihood of all these Companies listing in 2026 is small but possible. That would mean an epic bonanz, VCs, bankers and deal attorneys. SpaceX executives told investors in recent weeks that the company will go public within the next 12 months unless there is a major market shock, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. Anthropic has appointed west coast law firm Wilson Sonsini to begin preparations. OpenAI has also been in talks with leading firms, including Cooley, about IPO preparations, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. The ChatGPT parent company has not yet selected its legal advisors, according to a person close to the company. The groups have yet to set IPO valuation targets. OpenAI, which is currently valued at $500 billion, is engaged in discussions with investors about a new fundraise at a valuation of $750 billion or more. Those talks are at an early stage, but OpenAI is likely to raise tens of billions of dollars in new funds, the people said. SpaceX is working on a secondary stock sale that would value it at $800 billion, according to multiple people with knowledge of the deal. Anthropic is also in talks for new funding, which invest the company at more than $300 billion. Hopes for a revival of large tech listings in 2025 faded when Donald Trump launched his sweeping tariffs in April and were set back again by the government shutdown in October. Figma, Klarna, Core Weave and Chime were among the technology groups to list in 2025, contributing a total of more than $30 billion in US IPO proceeds in the first nine months, the bulk of it from technology groups, according to ey. This year's total is likely to dwarf that sum if even one of the three big startups goes public. SpaceX alone is widely expected to surpass Saudi Aramco's $29 billion raise in 2019 to become the largest public listing ever. Two segments now on the social media ecosystem, Reddit has surpassed TikTok as the fourth most visited social media service in the UK, likely driven by changes to Google's search algorith and the recent AI deals Reddit has made. Yes, I said this is only the UK, but do think about that. Reddit, more important than TikTok, might be a global trend, quoting the Guardian. The platform has undergone huge growth over the last two years, with an 88% increase in the proportion of UK Internet users it reaches. Three in five Brits online now encounter the site, up from a third in 2023, according to Ofcom. Its popularity is rising fastest with younger Internet users. It is now the 6 6th most visited organization of any kind by UK users aged between 18 and 24, up from 10th a year earlier. More than three quarters of that cohort now visit it. The rapid growth marks a shift in the site's standing, with its numerous forums once seen as arenas for hostile exchanges between largely anonymous users. The UK is a boom market for the platform, with the second largest user base behind the U.S. according to company records. A series of factors are behind its rise, however. A change in Google search algorithms last year to prioritize helpful content from discussion forums appears to have been a significant driver. A recent deal with Google that allows the company to train its AI model on Reddit's content also appears to have provided a boost. Reddit is the most cited source for Google AI overviews, which is likely to see more people directed to its forums. It has a similar deal with OpenAI, which owns the most popular AI chatbot, ChatGPT. The company believes it is also benefiting from shifting Internet habits as younger users seek out human generated reviews and opinions on issues including parenting, skincare and sports. More than half of its UK users are women. Internal company research suggests 71% of women on Reddit in the UK have a personal interest in skincare, beauty and cosmetics, prompting higher traffic for specific UK Reddit forums on those issues known as subreddits. Reddit started with this perception, rightfully so for a male skew gaming and tech as the anchor said Jen Wong, Reddit's chief operating officer, who said she spent a lot of time in the UK gardening subreddit Reddit has become very diverse. It is gender balanced in the UK now. What is interesting is that 1 in 3 are Gen Z women on the platform. Gen Z are very open to looking online for advice around these life stage moments like leaving home and renting for the first time, which happens a little bit later for some of this generation. It's a very safe place to ask questions about balancing a checkbook or how to pay for a wedding. UK subreddits on pregnancy and parenting have doubled in size over the last year. There is also a growing trend for supporters of Premier League club to watch games while logged on to their team's subreddit. The Premier League subreddit has grown by more than a billion views in the last year, according to company records. End quote. And well, this lead kind of says it all. Who says copying things never gets you anywhere? It can again maybe get you bigger than TikTok. Quoting the Journal five years ago Meta's Reels was a TikTok copycat with no revenue. Now it is set to bring in as much as Coca Cola and Nike and the company plans to expand to More screens in 2026 Meta Platform's chief executive, Mark Zuckerberg, announced on an October earnings call that Instagram and Facebook Reels had surpassed a $50 billion annual run rate, which means that the company is on track to make that amount of revenue in the next 12 months. By comparison, analysts expect YouTube to bring in $6 billion dollars in advertising revenue this year, and the research firm eMarketer estimates TikTok will bring in only $17 billion. It is a far cry from just a few years ago, when internal meta research showed that Instagram was stumbling in its attempt to mimic TikTok. Caught flat footed by the success of that video app, then owned by ByteDance, Instagram launched Reels in August of 2020. By 2022, Instagram users were spending 1/10 the time watching Reels as they did on TikTok, the Wall Street Journal reported at the time. One document said reels eng falling over the previous four weeks and that most Reels users have no engagement whatsoever. Tessa Lyons, Instagram's vice president of products, said the first challenge was figuring out how to introduce short form video into an app that had primarily been known as a place for people to post photos and connect with their friends and the creators they follow. Then they had to help people find reels from accounts they don't even follow. That's an entirely different ranking challenge from the way that we originally had to think about ranking content, she said in an interview. Instagram's algorithm previously had been built on a a following graph, meaning it primarily showed users posts from people they followed, either friends, celebrities or creators. TikTok upended the idea of the following graph, instead, showing users videos from accounts they didn't follow and figuring out what they liked based on how long they lingered on each video. Instagram had to figure out how to do that much harder task, too. It focused on promoting original content and paying creators to post on the platform. As people spent more time scrolling reels, the algorithm got better at predicting what users wanted to see. Five years on, something has started to click. The average Instagram user is now spending 27 minutes a day watching reels versus YouTube shorts. Users watching 21 minutes on that platform, according to estimates from market intelligence firm sensor tower. TikTok is still king, however, with the average user spending 44 minutes a day scrolling its main feed. End quote. I believe the last time I was at CES was right before the COVID lockdowns started. So what was that 2020? January 2019? I don't remember. Maybe somebody can go back in the archives and let me know Anyway, I'm off to try to get into the Jensen Huang event this afternoon. Talk to you tomorrow.