Transcript
Brian McCullough (0:00)
Foreign welcome to the Tech Meme Ride home for Friday, January 31st, 2025. I'm Brian McCullough. Today, Apple's earnings are decidedly mixed. Mark Zuckerberg's complaints about everything he says leaking, leaked and there are a lot of interesting details in those leaks. Looks like the SoftBank and OpenAI courtship is a serious one. And if the marriage happens, looks like arm holdings can be leveraged for the dowry and of course the weekend long Read Suggestions. Here's what you missed today in the world of tech. Apple reported earnings last evening and this is basically the textbook definition of mixed. Yes, they had record revenue in their Q1, up 4% year on year, but iPhone revenue was down 1% and came in below estimates. Mac and iPad sales were both up 15%, but the wearables and accessories category was down 2%. Are you sensing a trend here? Tim Cook took time to point out that there are now more than 2.35 billion active Apple devices worldwide, which is a new all time record. Amazing, right? Yeah, but sales of Apple devices in China were down 11% to $18.5 billion, the largest drop in China since Q1 of 2024. Quoting CNBC, Apple said it expected growth in the March quarter of low to mid single digits on an annual basis. The company also said it expected low double digits growth for its services division. Apple's iPhone Ms. Vs. S estimates was the biggest for the company in two years since its first quarter earnings report in fiscal 2023. At the time, Apple said its Ms. Was because it was unable to make enough iPhone 14 models because of production issues in China. End quote. Yes, but Apple services revenue reached an all time high of $26.34 billion in Q1, up 14% year on year, beating estimates and helping lift the company's gross margin to a record 46.9%. Quoting CNBC again, CEO Tim Cook's emphasis on services has transformed Wall Street's view of a company that's been defined over the decades by its iconic devices. For many years in the iPhone era, Apple's gross margin would predictably come in at between 38 and 39%, reflecting the company's tight grip over its supply chain and its pricing power in the market. But with iPhone growth slowing in recent years, Apple's move into services has changed the equation. The company hit a 40% gross margin in 2021 and has continued to expand it. Because of Wall Street's love of profit, Apple's been able to keep delivering for investors. The stock rose 31% last year outperforming the Nasdaq, and the company's market cap has climbed to $3.6 trillion. So to sum up, slightly disappointing. No iPhone super cycle of upgrades, at least not yet. And whether the glass is half empty or half full basically depends on which part of the Apple you are focusing on. Yesterday in a Meta All Hands meeting, Mark Zuckerberg said, and I quote, everything I say leaks and it sucks, right? How do I know he said that? Well, because details of the meeting leaked and there were lots of interesting bits in this meeting. For example, quoting Business Insider When I look back on TikTok, I think part of the reason why we were slow to it is because we didn't think TikTok was social, Zuckerberg said in a recording of an All Hands meeting obtained by Business Insider. We looked at it and we thought, oh, this is like a little more like YouTube. The admission came in response to an employee's question about whether Meta's current focus on artificial intelligence might cause the company to miss the next major social media trend, as it did with TikTok. Zuckerberg explained at the meeting that Meta's traditional view of social interaction centered around friends posting content and commenting caused the company to initially misread TikTok's appeal. The company failed to recognize how users were sharing TikTok content through private messages, which has become a crucial form of social interaction across Meta's platforms because we were too dismissive up front. It wasn't just about people commenting in the feed, it was about people seeing stuff in their feed and then sharing it into message threads, zuckerberg said, referring to the company's Instant messaging platforms, WhatsApp, messenger and direct messaging in Instagram, where the majority of social interaction is happening, end quote. Also quoting a different Business Insider piece, Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg told employees Thursday in a Company All Hands meeting to buckle up for an intense year ahead and address several recent policy changes. Zuckerberg opened the All Hands by emphasizing a sense of urgency for the year. He told staff that he expected to have a clearer sense of the company's trajectory by the end of 2025 and that AI would be top of mind. He also addressed recent policy changes related to fact checking and programs for diversity, equity and inclusion. This is a marathon, not a sprint, he said in a recording reviewed by Business Insider. But honestly, this year feels a little more like a sprint to me. In a wide ranging opening monologue, Zuckerberg predicted that 2025 would be the year a highly intelligent and personalized digital assistant reached 1 billion users. I think whoever gets there first is going to have a durable advantage towards building one of the most important products in history, zuckerberg said, according to the recording. Zuckerberg also reiterated his belief that this would be the year Meta started seeing AI agents take on work, including writing software. Asked whether this would lead to job cuts, Zuckerberg said it was hard to know and that while it may lead to some roles becoming redundant, it could lead to hiring more engineers who can harness artificial intelligence to be more productive. The nature of what engineering is in the future will be different than it is today, he said. Zuckerberg touched on several flashpoints in recent weeks from inside the company, including the announcement that it would move away from third party fact checkers to a community notes system like that used by Elon Musk's ex. He told staff to wait and see how the new system would be implemented. I'm actually quite optimistic that this is going to end up being a better system, he said. End quote. One more interesting data point that came out of this Zuck said Meta sold more than 1 million Ray Ban smart glasses in 2024, revealing those sales figures for the first More details on that potential marriage between OpenAI and SoftBank Sources say OpenAI is in early talks to raise up to $40 billion at a $340 billion valuation. OpenAI was last valued at $157 billion in October, when it raised $6.6 billion, quoting the Journal. SoftBank would lead the round and is in discussions to invest between 15 and 25 billion dollars. The remaining amount would the two companies were recently in talks to value OpenAI as high as $340 billion, one of the people familiar with the matter said. After the Wall Street Journal published that figure in an earlier version of this story, the person said newer negotiations lowered the proposed valuation to as much as $300 billion. The Japanese company is helping assemble investors for the rest of the round, one of the people said. The discussions are still in flux and could fall apart, the person said. The $300 billion valuation would include the cash OpenAI raises in the round. The funding would be used in part to help OpenAI fulfill its roughly $18 billion commitment to Stargate, a joint venture with SoftBank and others to finance the construction of new data centers in the US powering OpenAI's technology. The startup also expects to use the cash to fund its money losing business operations. At $300 billion, OpenAI would be the second most valuable startup in the world, behind only Elon Musk's SpaceX, according to the data provider CB Insights. End quote. Meanwhile, where is SoftBank going to get the money to do this? Well, a different journal article says they might borrow against their more than $140 billion ARM stake to fund the investments. Masa San's commitment to OpenAI and Stargate ensures that Sam Altman's company will have ample cloud computing firepower in the coming years. Just as it has ended the exclusivity portion of its Microsoft deal and by leading a funding round that would be the biggest in Silicon Valley history, SON is enthusiastically endorsing Altman's plan to keep spend gobs of cash on leading edge AI systems. For all of us, the AI era represents a once in a generation opportunity to help build a better, safer, healthier and more prosperous future, son wrote in a widely distributed email message Thursday. It was the $32 billion purchase in 2016 of ARM Holdings, a chip design company that became SoftBank's golden goose. The company surged in the halo of the AI rush after SoftBank relisted it on the Nasdaq in 2023. ARM stock has tripled since then, and SoftBank's stake is worth more than $140 billion, an asset that gives sun plenty of wiggle room financially. Borrowing against its arm's stake would be one way for SoftBank, which had around $30 billion of cash at the end of September and has vowed to keep a large buffer on hand to fund OpenAI. It could also sell some assets, such as its stakes in T Mobile and Deutsche Telekom, worth a combined $27 billion, according to FactSet. SoftBank has held early talks with potential lenders to help fund its investments in OpenAI and Stargate, people familiar with the discussion said. End quote.
