Tech Brew Ride Home – September 26, 2025

Is TikTok US Only Worth $14B?

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This episode dives into the breaking news around TikTok’s proposed US sale – claimed to be worth a surprisingly low $14 billion – and what it means for tech, geopolitics, and valuation. Host Brian McCullough scrutinizes the outlandishness of that price, unpacks the major players in the deal, and covers other top tech news, including Amazon’s Prime settlement, Anthropic’s copyright fallout, major AI updates from OpenAI and Meta, and fresh stories at the bleeding edge of tech.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The TikTok US Deal – A $14 Billion Enigma

[00:04–09:55]

• Announcement: President Trump signed an executive order approving a deal letting TikTok keep operating in the US, calling it a “qualified sale” that addresses national security.

• Deal Structure:

  • Oracle, Silver Lake, and Abu Dhabi’s MGX are slated for ~45% ownership of TikTok US.
  • ByteDance retains 19.9%; existing ByteDance investors keep 35%.

• Lingering Skepticism:

  • China (and ByteDance itself) has made no public statement confirming the deal, so official finality is in doubt.
  • "China… has been quiet about all this so far. A notable silence as China can still decide the deal's fate." [A/Brian, 00:43]

• Security & Algorithm Questions:

  • Both President Trump and VP JD Vance stress that the deal will protect US consumer data and give American investors control over TikTok’s content algorithm.
  • Notable quote:
    • JD Vance: “The fundamental thing that we wanted to accomplish is that we wanted to keep TikTok operating, but we also wanted to make sure that we protected Americans data privacy as required by law.” [A, 01:56]

• Valuation Head-Scratcher:

  • The $14 billion figure for TikTok US is seen as comically low.
  • ByteDance as a whole is worth $300–400B, and TikTok drives a huge chunk of value—much of it international, but the US market is the most lucrative.
  • Even “conservative estimates” put TikTok US revenue north of $10 billion/year, so “investors are paying something like a 1x multiple, which is absolutely silly.” [A, 04:52]
  • Comps like Snap ($14B market cap, but weaker monetization) don’t make sense.
  • "It would not be crazy to value [TikTok US] well north of $100 billion. So, yeah, this is perhaps the most sweetheart of sweetheart deals." [A, 06:23]

• Connected business interests:

  • MGX and partners stand to also benefit from a $20B Oracle data center project in the UAE; Silver Lake, another investor, has a stake in Emirati AI projects.
  • Memorable observation:
    • "Yes, TikTok is being sold for less than the cost of a single data center, one of which all of these parties are affiliated with. Funny that." [A, 07:55]

2. Amazon’s $2.5B FTC Settlement over Prime Practices

[09:56–11:04]

• Amazon has agreed to a $2.5B settlement: $1B civil penalty, $1.5B for customer redress, after an FTC complaint accused them of using deceptive “dark patterns” to push Prime sign-ups and thwart cancelations.
• FTC Chair Andrew Ferguson: “The evidence showed that Amazon used sophisticated subscription traps designed to manipulate consumers into enrolling in Prime.” [A, 10:28]
• Consumers duped into Prime will receive $51–$139, depending on usage.
• Amazon admits no wrongdoing but will now offer clearer opt-outs and renewal info to 200 million+ customers.

3. Anthropic’s Copyright Settlement with Authors

[~11:05]

• A federal judge has preliminarily approved Anthropic’s $1.5B settlement with authors whose pirated books were used to train AI models.
• Authors who sued might receive a substantial payout, though details remain to be finalized.

4. Security Meltdown: The Rise and Fall of the Neon Call Recording App

[11:05–11:50]

• Neon, a buzzy new call recording app, shot to #2 on the US App Store but was yanked after TechCrunch revealed critical security flaws exposing users’ call data.
• Neon’s founder took the app offline after being notified, but failed to inform users fully about the severity of the lapse.

5. AI Shakeups: OpenAI Pulse & Meta Vibes

[11:05–end]

OpenAI’s ChatGPT Pulse

• OpenAI introduces ChatGPT Pulse: personalized, proactive daily updates for Pro users – entirely based on their chat history, feedback, and connected apps.
• Personalized “visual cards” alert users to everything from sports updates to dinner menus, based on their routines and preferences.
• Notable quote:
  • Christina Kaplan (OpenAI): “ChatGPT can keep a pulse proactively on things important to you and offer information, ideas and practical next steps.” [A, 11:25]
• Pulse represents OpenAI’s push to become an indispensable daily tool, the “first thing you check every morning,” with historical parallels drawn to Yahoo’s rise.
• Raises privacy/data questions, but OpenAI promises only user-specific feedback will improve each person’s own Pulse, not aggregate the data for product training.

Meta Launches 'Vibes' for AI-Generated Videos

• Meta’s new Vibes platform lets users create, remix, and share short AI-generated videos within the Meta AI app/website, and cross-publish to Facebook and Instagram Stories/Reels.
• Early Vibes is powered by AI partnerships (Midjourney, Black Forest Labs) and seems poised to drive AI adoption through Meta’s massive audience.
• While some see the flood of AI-generated “slop” as a problem, Meta’s playbook banks on real-world user engagement data, not surface-level complaints.

6. Long-Reads & Futurism

[~End]

• Why isn’t AI replacing radiologists yet? Legal and practical reasons stall full takeover—AI underperforms in hospitals and the job is more complex than image recognition.
• Quantum Computing in Finance: HSBC and IBM used a quantum tool to beat traditional market predictions by 34%, hinting at a radical wave of disruption looming for financial trading.

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On TikTok’s value:
  • “$14 billion. It’s a number so comically low that it would seem more believable if it was what one entity was paying for 10% of the company. But no, everyone is reporting the same thing.” — Brian McCullough, 03:52
• On U.S. TikTok algorithm control:
  • VP J.D. Vance: “American investors will actually control the algorithm that determines the content seen on the social media app.” [A, 02:28]
• On Amazon’s dark patterns:
  • FTC Chair Ferguson: “Amazon used sophisticated subscription traps designed to manipulate consumers into enrolling in Prime.” [A, 10:28]

Important Timestamps

• 00:04 – Show intro, TikTok deal overview begins
• 01:56 – VP Vance on deal motives and data privacy
• 03:52–06:23 – TikTok US valuation breakdown and skepticism
• 07:55 – Comparison: TikTok sold for less than a data center
• 09:56 – Amazon’s FTC settlement and consumer refunds
• 11:05 – Anthropic settlement and Neon app meltdown
• 11:25 – OpenAI Pulse details and demo
• REST (~12:00–end) – Meta Vibes, AI in medicine, quantum computing, closing thoughts

Final Thoughts

This episode is dense with breaking tech news and sharp analysis. Brian’s skepticism about the TikTok deal’s value, his detailed breakdowns (especially around AI innovation and big-tech regulation), and his eye for the big-picture make it an essential listen (or read!) for anyone following the intersection of tech, politics, and new digital economies.